NZDCHF CHANNEL BREAKOUT|SHORT|
✅NZDCHF has broken down out of the rising channel after running buy-side liquidity at the highs, showing clear ICT displacement and a shift in order-flow toward discount levels. Price is now drawing toward the next sell-side pocket near the target zone. Time Frame 2H.
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Breakout
EUR-CAD Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EURCAD has broken decisively below the horizontal supply area after sweeping buy-side liquidity and distributing at premium, forming an SMC breakout structure that favors continuation lower toward the next discount target. Time Frame 10H.
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
ADAUSDT the 0.6$ soon will hit againAs observed on the chart, ADA has executed a decisive breakout above a major resistance zone, confirmed by a strong bullish candle accompanied by significantly high trading volume. This combination of price action and volume indicates substantial buying pressure and validates the breakout's strength. Consequently, the technical structure now supports a continuation of the upward momentum, with the next primary target projected at the $0.60 level.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
EURUSD Short: Supply Holds — Pullback to 1.1610 in FocusHello, traders! The price action on EURUSD is unfolding within a well-defined technical structure shaped by an ascending Trend Line, with the market transitioning from consolidation into a corrective pullback. After a prolonged bullish advance, the pair formed a Head and Shoulders pattern near the upper Supply Zone around 1.16660, signaling exhaustion of buying momentum. Following this distribution phase, price broke below the neckline and started moving lower, showing a clear shift in short-term control toward sellers.
Currently, EURUSD spent time consolidating inside the highlighted Range, where multiple false breakouts occurred before bullish continuation resumed. However, the recent rejection from supply and the breakdown from the pattern suggest that upside momentum is weakening. Currently, the price is trading below the former range support and is approaching the Demand Zone near 1.16100, which also aligns with a key horizontal support level.
My scenario for the next move is a continuation toward the 1.16100 demand area, where buyers may attempt to slow the decline. A strong bullish reaction from this zone could trigger a corrective rebound back toward the broken structure. However, if the price fails to hold this demand, the bearish pressure may intensify and open the door for a deeper pullback. As long as the market remains below the 1.16660 supply, the short-term bias stays bearish. Manage your risk!
XAUUSD Bullish Trend in Play — Path Open Toward 4,300 TargetHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on XAU/USD (Gold) based on the current market structure. Gold remains in a broader bullish trend, supported by a clearly defined rising Trend Line that has guided price action since the beginning of the impulsive move. After the initial breakout from the Support Level, the market formed a well-structured range, followed by a corrective pullback and another consolidation phase, confirming healthy bullish rotation. Price is currently trading above the key Support Level near 4,140, while attempting to stabilize above the rising Support Line, which keeps buyers in control of the short-term structure. The recent breakout from the second range indicates renewed bullish momentum, with price now approaching the major Resistance Level around 4,260–4,270. As long as Gold holds above the support zone and respects the ascending trendline, the bullish scenario remains valid. The structure suggests continued pressure toward the upside, with TP1 positioned near 4,300, which aligns with the next key resistance area. A clean breakout above this level could open the door for further trend continuation and higher upside targets. However, a failure to hold the Support Line could lead to a deeper pullback toward the lower support zone. For now, the technical structure favors the buyers, with bulls aiming for a retest and breakout of the 4,260–4,300 resistance zone. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Gold Bear Flag Ready for a Bullish BreakoutHello everyone, Helene here! XAUUSD is currently showing a more positive outlook as price structure starts shifting into a bullish direction.
The latest market interaction is particularly interesting. We’re seeing an early recovery phase, weakening bearish momentum, and low-volume candles suggesting seller exhaustion. This often acts as an early signal for a potential bullish move developing.
Based on the current pattern, my target is around 4,330 – a reasonable level aligned with the market structure. Should price continue in this direction, the next move could become a beautiful extension of the bullish story in Gold we’ve been following.
This setup looks very appealing. It’s a developing scenario, although it still requires patience and proper confirmation before fully validating the upside.
Even though a bearish scenario is still possible due to the clear support zone below, I personally lean toward additional bullish continuation as the pattern forming here supports that outlook.
Wishing you a successful trading session and the best of luck.
ES1! S&P 500 E-mini Futures - The Fed Week Pivot📈 Executive Summary - The Setup
Current Price: 6,862.50 | Date: December 8, 2025 | Change: +6.75 (+0.10%)
The S&P 500 E-mini futures are sitting less than 1% from all-time highs on the eve of the Federal Reserve's most anticipated meeting of 2025. After a four-day win streak that added 0.3% to the index, markets are now in a classic consolidation pattern at resistance, waiting for Wednesday's 2PM ET catalyst.
The Technical Picture:
Pattern: Ascending channel (intact since November)
Current Position: Testing upper resistance at 6,880-6,900
ATH: 6,904.50 (December 3) - 0.6% away
Support: 6,750-6,780 (mid-channel), 6,640-6,670 (lower channel)
The Fundamental Backdrop:
FedWatch shows a near-90% probability the FOMC will cut the target range for the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points. But here's what markets are REALLY pricing: not just the cut itself (that's a given), but Powell's guidance on 2026.
Minutes from the October meeting showed "many" FOMC members saying no more cuts are needed at least in 2025. Yet the market now indicates an 80% likelihood of a December rate cut, following dovish statements from NY Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
The Trade: This is a tactical long from 6,850-6,870 targeting 6,950-7,050, with stop at 6,820. Risk/reward: 1:2.5.
But the real opportunity? Buying any Fed-induced dip to 6,750-6,800 for a swing to 7,000+.
🔎 Market Context - What's REALLY Happening
The Pre-Fed Calm
US stock futures stall as traders wait for the Fed meeting, with the S&P 500 just below record highs. This is textbook behavior: The indexes have quietly stitched together consistent gains. The Dow and Nasdaq scored back-to-back positive weeks; the S&P 500 added another 0.3% and now sits only a touch from record territory.
S&P 500 futures (ES) traded around 6,880-6,885, roughly 0.1% higher by 6:00-7:30 a.m. ET on Monday.
But don't mistake the calm for weakness. Even after November's wobble, dip-buyers came back as shutdown fears faded and AI jitters cooled.
The Fed's Dilemma
The Federal Reserve is in an impossible position:
Argument FOR cutting:
Concerns about a softening labor market
Employers cut more than 1.1 million jobs through November, the most since 2020 and a 54% increase from the same period a year ago
Job growth remains too low to keep up with labor supply growth and a rising unemployment rate
Argument AGAINST cutting:
Latest inflation scorecard, the Fed's preferred PCE index, is running at 2.8 percent a year, close to its 2 percent goal but not quite there
The annualized inflation rate grew to 3% in September from 2.9% in August and 2.7% in July
Officials expressing skepticism about the need for an additional cut that markets had been widely anticipating, with "many" saying that no more cuts are needed at least in 2025
The Missing Data Problem:
Here's something CRITICAL that most traders don't know: The U.S. central bank will have to make its decision without some key government data. Hiring data for November and the latest inflation number have been delayed until mid-December, after the Fed's meeting, because of the U.S. government shutdown.
The meeting minutes indicated the decision-making was complicated by a lack of government data during the 44-day federal government shutdown. Powell himself compared this to "driving in the fog".
Translation: The Fed is making a $28 TRILLION (SPY market cap) decision BLIND.
The Internal FOMC War
"It's difficult to recall a time when the Federal Open Market Committee has been so evenly divided about the need for additional rate cuts than the upcoming December meeting," Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said.
Jerome Powell faces a credibility issue as he tries to satisfy hawks and doves on the most divided Fed in recent memory.
The October meeting vote was 10-2, but the 10-2 vote was not indicative of how split officials were at an institution not generally known for dissent. The minutes revealed multiple camps:
Some favored cutting
Some supported cutting but could have supported holding
Several were against cutting
For December, Mericle expects at least two dissents in favor of no rate cut as well as one in favor of a larger rate cut.
📊 Technical Analysis - The Ascending Channel At Decision Point
The Pattern: Ascending Channel (Bullish Structure)
Your chart annotation is PERFECT. The yellow dashed ascending channel captures the exact structure driving ES1! since the November bottom.
Channel Characteristics:
Lower Support: 6,640 (tested Nov 15, Nov 29) → 6,670 (current)
Upper Resistance: 6,850 (Nov 25) → 6,900 (Dec 3-6) → 6,920 (projected)
Angle: ~25° (strong bull trend)
Tests: 6 touches (3 upper, 3 lower) = highly reliable pattern
Current Position: We're at the UPPER boundary of the channel, testing 6,880-6,900 resistance.
Key Technical Levels:
🔴 RESISTANCE (Selling pressure zones):
6,880-6,900: Current test, upper channel boundary
6,904.50: All-time high from December 3
6,920-6,950: True breakout zone (if we clear ATH)
7,000: Psychological milestone
🟢 SUPPORT (Buying interest zones):
6,850: Immediate support, bull/bear line
6,800-6,820: Minor support cluster + FVG
6,750-6,780: Mid-channel support + 23.6% Fib
6,700-6,720: 38.2% Fib retracement
6,640-6,670: Major support (lower channel + 50-day MA + November accumulation)
Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages:
50-day MA: ~6,680 (rising, bullish)
200-day MA: ~6,450 (rising, bullish)
Golden Cross: Active since mid-November = long-term bullish
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Current: 58-60 (neutral/slightly bullish)
Not overbought (room to run to 70+)
Not oversold (not panic selling)
Interpretation: Healthy consolidation before next leg
Volume Analysis:
Declining volume into Fed decision = normal pre-FOMC behavior
Stock volatility averages around 22.5% in the month preceding rate cuts, compared with roughly 15% during normal periods
Expect volume spike Wednesday 2PM-4PM (100K+ contracts)
VIX (Fear Index):
VIX at 15.41, down -0.37 (-2.34%)
This is LOW = market complacency
Pre-FOMC, VIX typically rises to 18-22
IF VIX spikes to 20+ Wednesday = sell signal
🎯 Scenario Analysis - Three Possible Outcomes
SCENARIO A: Dovish Cut (60% Probability) - BULLISH
What Happens:
Fed cuts 25bps to 3.50-3.75% range ✓
Dot plot shows 3-4 more cuts in 2026 ✓
Powell says "labor market concerns outweigh inflation" ✓
Balance sheet runoff stops as planned (December 1) ✓
Market Reaction:
Immediate: ES pumps 1-1.5% to 6,930-6,950
Day 1-3: Consolidation at 6,920-6,950
Week 1-2: Breakout to 7,050-7,100
Month 1: Target 7,150-7,200 (+4.2%)
Sector Leaders:
Small caps (Russell 2000) +2-3%
Tech (Nasdaq) +1.5-2%
Financials +1-1.5%
Trade Setup:
Enter: ANY dip to 6,850-6,870 before Fed
Add: On breakout above 6,910 with volume
Target: 7,050 (+2.7%), 7,150 (+4.2%)
Stop: 6,820 (-0.6%)
Risk/Reward: 1:4
SCENARIO B: Hawkish Cut (30% Probability) - NEUTRAL/CHOPPY
What Happens:
Fed cuts 25bps to 3.50-3.75% range ✓
BUT dot plot shows only 1-2 cuts in 2026 ❌
Powell says "we're near neutral, will pause to assess" ❌
Market had priced in 3-4 cuts for 2026 = DISAPPOINTMENT
Market Reaction:
Immediate: ES drops 0.8-1.2% to 6,790-6,820
Day 1: Volatility, chop between 6,780-6,850
Week 1-2: Dip-buying brings it back to 6,870-6,900
Month 1: Grind back to 6,950-7,000 (+1.3%)
Sector Rotation:
Small caps (Russell 2000) -1.5-2%
Tech holds up better (mega-caps)
Defensives (utilities, staples) outperform
Trade Setup:
DO NOT chase before Fed (risk of -1.2% drop)
Buy: Dip to 6,750-6,800 (mid-channel support)
Target: 6,900-6,950 (+2-3% from dip entry)
Stop: 6,720 (-1%)
Risk/Reward: 1:2
SCENARIO C: No Cut OR Very Hawkish (10% Probability) - BEARISH
What Happens:
Fed HOLDS at 3.75-4% range (SHOCK) ❌
OR cuts but says "this is the last one for 6+ months" ❌
Powell cites inflation persistence, tariff risks ❌
Market has 90% priced in for cut = PANIC
Market Reaction:
Immediate: ES flash crashes 2-3% to 6,650-6,750
Day 1: Volatility, VIX spikes to 25-30
Week 1-2: Bounce attempt to 6,750-6,800 fails
Month 1: Retest 6,600, then recovery to 6,800-6,850
Sector Carnage:
Small caps (Russell 2000) -3-4%
Tech -2-3%
Everything bleeds
Trade Setup:
Exit ALL longs immediately on no-cut announcement
Wait for VIX to spike above 25
Buy: Capitulation at 6,600-6,650 (lower channel)
Target: Recovery to 6,850-6,900 (+3-4%)
Risk/Reward: 1:3 (but high stress)
🎯 THE TRADE SETUP - Professional Execution Plan
🟢 PRIMARY LONG SETUP: BUY ES1!
Entry Strategy (Scale In):
Option A: Conservative (Wait for Fed)
50% at 6,750-6,780 (IF hawkish cut dips)
50% at 6,720-6,750 (IF deeper dip)
Best for: Risk-averse traders
Option B: Tactical (Enter Now)
40% at 6,860-6,870 (current - small position)
30% at 6,820-6,840 (IF pre-Fed dip)
30% at 6,750-6,780 (IF post-Fed dip)
Best for: Experienced traders comfortable with volatility
Stop Loss: 6,620 (HARD STOP)
Below 6,620 = channel break on daily close
Below this = technical structure invalidated
Max loss from 6,862 entry: -3.5%
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 6,950-7,000 (Probability: 70%)
Initial breakout above ATH
Psychological 7,000 level
Action: Take 40% profit, move stop to 6,850
Gain: +1.3-2.0% | Risk/Reward: 1:2
TP2: 7,050-7,100 (Probability: 50%)
Momentum continuation
Channel projection
Action: Take 30% profit, trail stop to 6,920
Gain: +2.7-3.5% | Risk/Reward: 1:3
TP3: 7,150-7,200 (Probability: 30%)
Full breakout extension
TradingView puts it, with a potential breakout in S&P 500 futures above the 6,900 area
Action: Take 20% profit, let 10% ride
Gain: +4.2-4.9% | Risk/Reward: 1:4
Entry Confirmation Checklist:
Before entering, CHECK:
✅ Price holding above 6,850 (bull/bear line)
✅ Volume spike on bounce (80K+ contracts on 15min)
✅ RSI crosses above 60 (momentum shift)
✅ VIX drops below 16 (fear subsiding)
✅ Fed announces 25bps cut (as expected)
✅ Powell's tone is dovish or neutral (not hawkish)
WAIT FOR 4/6 BEFORE FULL POSITION
Fed Day Volatility Protocol:
December 10, 2PM ET - Fed Announcement:
1:45 PM: Tighten stops to 6,830 (before announcement)
2:00 PM: Fed statement released - READ IMMEDIATELY
2:00-2:05 PM: Algorithmic reaction (ignore, volatile)
2:05-2:30 PM: Human digestion of statement
2:30 PM: Powell press conference begins - WATCH LIVE
2:30-3:15 PM: Powell Q&A determines direction
3:15-4:00 PM: Final positioning for overnight
IF DOVISH: Add to position on dip to 6,900
IF HAWKISH: Cut 50%, trail rest tight at 6,820
Weekly Monitoring:
Check EVERY DAY:
Fed speakers: Any 2026 guidance changes
Economic data: Jobs (Dec 16), CPI (Dec 18)
Technical levels: Is channel intact?
VIX: Spikes above 20 = warning
Volume: Declining = weak trend
Emergency Exit Conditions:
❌ Daily close below 6,620 = EXIT ALL (channel break)
❌ VIX spikes above 25 = EXIT 50%, tight stop on rest
❌ Fed announces NO cut (10% scenario) = EXIT ALL immediately
❌ Powell says "this is the last cut for 2026" = EXIT 50%
❌ ES gaps down >1.5% overnight = reassess, likely exit
📊 Fundamental Analysis - Why This Matters
CATALYST #1: The Fed's Impossible Position
Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to cut interest rates at this week's meeting despite inflation remaining above their target amid concerns about a softening labor market.
This is the classic Fed dual mandate dilemma:
Mandate #1: Maximum employment (FAILING - 1.1M layoffs in 2025)
Mandate #2: Stable prices (FAILING - inflation at 2.8% vs 2% target)
They can't fix both. So they have to choose.
David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs notes job growth remains too low to keep up with labor supply growth and a rising unemployment rate.
My take: The Fed will prioritize employment over inflation. That's dovish = bullish for stocks.
CATALYST #2: Corporate Earnings Remain Strong
Despite all the macro noise, corporate profits are SOLID:
S&P 500 earnings: +8.7% YoY
Tech sector leading: +12-15% earnings growth
AI spending driving margins higher
Q4 guidance mostly positive
Carvana (CVNA) stock rose 8% before the bell on Monday following news on Friday that it will join the S&P 500 as part of the index's quarterly rebalancing.
Translation: Fundamentals support higher prices, Fed just needs to cooperate.
CATALYST #3: Seasonal Tailwinds
Could spark a "year-end melt-up", as TradingView puts it, with a potential breakout in S&P 500 futures above the 6,900 area.
December-January has positive seasonality:
Holiday spending strong
Tax-loss selling done (Nov-early Dec)
January effect (fresh capital inflows)
Pension/401k rebalancing (buy equities)
Historically, S&P 500 averages +1.3% in December and +1.1% in January.
CATALYST #4: Institutional Positioning
Bloomberg's interviews with 39 investment managers show that most are still planning for a risk-on 2026, citing expectations of continued AI-driven productivity and earnings growth.
But here's the key: Asset managers such as EFG Asset Management and BNP Paribas Asset Management caution that with 2025 already a strong year, they are reluctant to increase equity exposure into thin year-end liquidity, preferring instead to wait for better entry points in early 2026.
Translation: Institutions are WAITING to buy. Any Fed-induced dip to 6,750-6,800 will be AGGRESSIVELY bought.
⚠️ Risk Factors - The Bear Case
RISK #1: Hawkish Powell Tanks Market
Feroli noted that the firm is anticipating at least two dissents in favor of no rate cut as well as one in favor of a larger rate cut.
If Powell leans hawkish to appease the dissenting hawks, market could drop 1-2%.
RISK #2: Tariff-Induced Inflation
Minutes mentioned Trump's tariff policies in forecasts they provided in early September, projecting higher inflation and unemployment, slower growth and a lower federal funds ratel.
If inflation accelerates in 2026 due to tariffs, Fed might have to HIKE again = very bearish.
RISK #3: Labor Market Deterioration
Employers cut more than 1.1 million jobs through November, the most since 2020 and a 54% increase from the same period a year ago.
If this accelerates, could trigger recession fears.
RISK #4: Technical Breakdown
Break below 6,620 = channel invalidated → target 6,500-6,550 (-4.5-5.2%)
🔥 The Bottom Line
Here's what I KNOW on December 8, 2025:
✅ 81% probability of 25bps cut Wednesday
✅ S&P 500 less than 1% from ATH
✅ Your ascending channel is PERFECT technical structure
✅ 39 investment managers planning risk-on 2026
✅ Corporate earnings strong (+8.7% YoY)
✅ Seasonal tailwinds (December +1.3% avg)
✅ Support at 6,750-6,800 = institutional buy zone
Here's what I DON'T know:
Will Powell be dovish or hawkish?
How many 2026 cuts will dot plot show?
Will Q&A reveal recession concerns?
But here's what the MATH says:
Risk: 6,862 → 6,620 = -3.5% (if channel breaks)
Reward: 6,862 → 7,050 = +2.7% (base case)
Extended: 6,862 → 7,150 = +4.2% (bull case)
Risk/Reward: 1:2.5 minimum
The Play:
Small position NOW at 6,860-6,870 (20-30% of intended size)
IF hawkish dip to 6,750-6,800 → ADD 50-70%
IF dovish → ADD on breakout above 6,910
Stop at 6,620 (non-negotiable)
Target 7,050, then 7,150
This is a PROBABILITY game. 60% dovish, 30% hawkish, 10% shock. Position accordingly.
📍 Follow officialjackofalltrades for institutional-grade technical analysis, professional risk management, and trades backed by data.
Drop a 📊 if you're trading the Fed decision.
Drop a 🎯 if this helped your ES1! analysis.
Drop a 💰 if you're ready for 7,000+ SPX.
XAUUSD: The Calm Before the BreakoutOANDA:XAUUSD Over the past few sessions the price has shown remarkable strength, yet the market has recently slowed and slipped into a sideways phase. This type of behavior is common after a strong rally and does not necessarily indicate weakness. It is more of a natural pause, allowing buyers to regroup while maintaining control of the overall trend.
The decisive moment will come if the price breaks convincingly above the upper boundary of this consolidation. That would confirm that bullish momentum is returning and that the market is preparing to move toward new highs.
This is the scenario I am watching: a calm accumulation phase, a temporary slowdown, and then a renewed move higher once consolidation has run its course. At this stage, the breakout appears less like a possibility and more like something that is gradually taking shape.
GBPJPY WILL KEEP GROWING|LONG|
✅GBPJPY has broken cleanly above the demand zone after sweeping internal sell-side liquidity, showing strong displacement and an ICT-style shift in order-flow toward higher buy-side objectives. Price is now drawing toward the next liquidity pocket above. Time Frame 3H.
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
CRUDE OIL Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL has broken beneath the rising trendline and retested a supply cluster, confirming an SMC bearish shift as buy-side liquidity was swept before displacement pushed price lower. A continuation toward the target discount zone remains likely. Time Frame 2H.
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
$GRI tap tap tapping $2.2 resistanceNASDAQ:GRI will release topline 12-week study data this week. All indications are that data will be positive. The price continues to test $2.2 resistance. This will be broken soon.
While all price movements are relative and unique, other companies with failed IPF trials lost ~$300M in market cap upon announcement. Others with successful trails have gained billions. GRI is worth approximately $6M today. Lots of room for upward valuation.
BTCUSDT: Failed Recovery Opens Path to 87,000 SupportHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup.
Market Analysis
BTCUSDT is trading inside a broader ascending channel, but the recent price action shows clear signs of weakness near the upper structure. Price previously attempted a breakout above the 90,000 Resistance Zone, however this move turned into a fake breakout, confirming strong seller pressure in that area. After the rejection, the market shifted into a corrective phase and formed a descending triangle structure, defined by the Triangle Support Line and repeated failures near resistance.
Currently, price is consolidating just below the 90,000 resistance, while gradually sliding along the descending support of the triangle. The 87,000 Support Zone remains the key downside buffer where buyers previously stepped in. The overall structure now suggests that bullish momentum is weakening, and sellers are gaining short-term control as long as price remains below the 90,000 resistance level.
My Scenario & Strategy
My scenario is bearish, as long as BTCUSDT stays below the 90,000 Resistance Zone and continues to respect the descending triangle structure. I expect price to attempt another breakdown toward the 87,000 Support Zone, which aligns with the lower channel support and previously active demand area. A clean break below 87,000 would confirm bearish continuation and open the path toward deeper downside targets.
However, if price once again reclaims the 90,000 resistance with strong volume and holding strength, the bearish scenario would be invalidated and a renewed push toward the upper channel could follow. For now, the market supports a short bias, with the main focus on a potential move toward the 87,000 support area.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
EURUSD: Buyers Push Toward the 1.1680 Triangle Resistance BreakHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD is transitioning out of a prolonged bearish phase that previously unfolded inside a well-defined downward channel. After forming a major swing low in early November, the pair initiated a recovery and gradually shifted into a corrective bullish structure. Price is now trading inside a developing triangle formation, defined by the ascending Triangle Support Line and the descending Triangle Resistance Line. During the decline, the market repeatedly respected the key Support Zone around 1.16200, which acted as a strong demand area and triggered bullish reactions on multiple occasions. Most recently, EURUSD completed a clear Head and Shoulders reversal pattern near the lower boundary, signaling exhaustion of sellers and the start of buyer control. Following this structure, price broke above the support zone and is now consolidating above it, confirming the zone as a valid demand base.
Currently, the pair is approaching the major Resistance Zone at 1.16800, which also aligns with the descending triangle resistance. This area remains the key upside barrier for buyers and represents a critical decision point for the market.
My Scenario & Strategy
My scenario is bullish, as long as price remains above the 1.16200 Support Zone and continues respecting the ascending Triangle Support Line. I expect EURUSD to maintain upward pressure and attempt a breakout toward the 1.16800 resistance, which is the next major supply area. A clean breakout above this zone would confirm bullish continuation and open the way for further upside toward higher targets.
However, if price reaches the resistance and shows strong rejection, a corrective pullback back toward the 1.16200 demand may occur. Still, the overall bullish structure remains valid as long as the support zone holds. For now, market conditions favor a long bias with focus on a breakout attempt toward the 1.16800 resistance zone.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
BTCUSD Pauses at Structure Top — Bulls Aim for 95,500 RetestHello traders! Here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSD setup. After a strong bearish phase, Bitcoin found support near the major Support Level around $89,100. Before reaching this zone, price was trading inside a broad descending channel, where both the Resistance Line and Support Line guided the downtrend. A fake breakout occurred near the lower boundary, showing early buyer interest, but overall momentum remained bearish until price reached the support. From there, BTC formed a clear sideways Range, signaling accumulation before a reversal attempt. Once buyers gained strength, price broke out of the range and shifted into a bullish structure. BTC began climbing within a rising wedge-like channel, respecting both the ascending Support Line and the diagonal Resistance Line. Along the way, the market formed multiple breakouts and fake breakouts, confirming active participation from both sides. However, buyers consistently defended the rising trendline, maintaining higher lows while approaching the key horizontal Resistance Level near $95,500. Currently, BTCUSD is pulling back slightly after touching the wedge resistance. As long as price holds above the ascending support and stays above $89,100, the bullish structure remains intact. My scenario suggests a potential continuation toward TP1 → $95,500 upon a successful rebound from the local support. If the market breaks below the rising structure, however, a deeper correction may unfold before any further upward attempt. For now, buyers are favored while the price remains inside the ascending channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD Early Week Bullish Outlook After Tokyo SweepQuick Summary
EURUSD remains strongly bullish, and the recent corrective decline is healthy for bullish continuation. Price is expected to dip early in the week to sweep the previous Tokyo low and go deeper into the hourly orderblock that aligns with the ascending trendline before resuming its upward move.
Full Analysis
The EURUSD continues to show strong bullish momentum, and the recent pullback is completely in line with a healthy trending market. Despite the strength of the prior upward move, the pair produced a controlled correction
This corrective move is particularly meaningful because price tapped into a clean hourly orderblock that aligns perfectly with an ascending trendline. Such confluence typically provides a strong foundation for buyers, showing that the market structure remains intact and supportive of further upside.
As we head into the new week, the expectation is that EURUSD may continue to dip slightly to sweep the previous Tokyo low. This potential sweep is important because the liquidity resting below that level can act as fuel for the next bullish expansion. Once the liquidity beneath Tokyo is taken, price is likely to react strongly from the same hourly orderblock zone and resume its upward trajectory.
XAUUSD Long: The 4,160 Support Holds – Path to 4,260 is OpenHello, traders! The price action for XAUUSD is currently developing within a well-defined ascending trend structure, supported by a rising major Trend Line from the lows. The market previously showed multiple rejections from the Triangle Supply Line, each marked by clear breakout attempts followed by corrective pullbacks. These reactions formed a sequence of higher lows, confirming that buyers remain in control of the broader structure.
Currently, after the last strong impulsive move upward, Gold reacted from the Supply Zone around 4,260, forming a short-term corrective phase while respecting the rising Triangle Demand Line near the 4,160 demand level. Price is now compressing between the descending supply line and the ascending demand line, creating a tightening triangle structure that signals growing pressure for a directional expansion. This compression reflects a balance between profit-taking sellers at resistance and aggressive dip-buyers along demand.
My scenario for the further development is bullish continuation as long as price holds above the Triangle Demand Line and the 4,160 demand zone. I expect a rebound from current levels, followed by a renewed attack on the 4,260 Supply Zone. If buyers manage to produce a clean breakout above this resistance, Gold may accelerate toward higher targets with strong momentum continuation. However, if the supply zone holds and price breaks below the demand line, a deeper corrective pullback toward the main rising Trend Line could develop. For now, the structure favors buyers, with the key focus on a breakout attempt toward 4,260. Manage your risk!
BTCUSDT Long: Buyers Defend 91K Zone – Targeting 96K ExpansionHello, traders! The current BTCUSDT price action is developing within a strongly structured bullish environment after a prolonged decline driven by the Descending Channel. Earlier, the market broke down from the upper supply region and continued to move lower while respecting the descending channel boundaries. After reaching a pivot low near the demand zone around 91,000, buyers stepped in, initiating a reversal and shifting momentum to the upside. Following this, Bitcoin formed a clean Ascending Channel that confirmed growing bullish pressure. Price then entered a Range phase, indicating temporary equilibrium before the next impulsive move. After completing this consolidation, BTCUSDT created a clear Head and Shoulders reversal structure near demand, signaling a strong bullish reversal. Buyers took control and pushed price sharply upward, breaking through the range and reclaiming higher structure levels.
Currently, BTCUSDT is trading inside a new Ascending Channel, steadily climbing toward the 96,000 supply level, where sellers previously reacted. As long as price remains above the 91,000 demand zone and continues to respect the ascending channel structure, the bullish scenario remains valid. The next upside target is the 96,000 resistance area, aligned with the upper channel boundary.
My scenario is a continuation toward 96,000 as long as buyers maintain control of the channel. However, a strong rejection from this supply zone may trigger a corrective pullback back toward demand before buyers attempt another move upward. Manage your risk!
XAUUSD: Triangle Breakdown Setup Points Toward $4,160 SupportHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup.
Market Analysis
Gold has recently moved out of a strong upward channel, where price previously showed consistent bullish momentum supported by higher lows and clean breakouts. After breaking out of the first channel, XAUUSD formed a consolidation range, signaling temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. This range acted as a base for the next impulsive bullish leg, which drove price back into a new upward channel. However, after the strong rally, gold formed a fake breakout near the $4,240 resistance area, which coincides with the upper boundary of the triangle resistance line. This false breakout indicated weakening bullish pressure and exhaustion near the top of the structure. Once price failed to hold above the resistance, it rotated downward and began forming a tightening triangle pattern between the descending resistance line and the rising support line.
Currently, XAUUSD is trading inside this triangle structure, with price gradually compressing. The $4,160 support level remains a key reference point, as it previously acted as a major demand zone during the last correction and is now aligned with the triangle’s lower boundary.
My Scenario & Strategy
My scenario is bearish as long as gold stays below the triangle resistance line and continues to respect the lower highs forming within the pattern. If price maintains this structure and fails to reclaim $4,240, I expect a downward move toward the $4,160 support zone.
Therefore, a clean breakdown below the triangle support line would confirm bearish continuation and could open the door for a deeper correction. On the other hand, if price rejects the support and breaks above the triangle resistance, the bearish setup becomes invalid, and buyers may attempt another retest of the $4,240 level. For now, the structure favors a short bias with the main objective being a move toward the $4,160 support level, which remains the next significant target for sellers.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
EURUSD Uptrend Structure Intact — Path Toward 1.1700 ResistanceHello traders! I want to share my view on the current EURUSD setup. After a corrective decline, the pair formed a solid local bottom around the Support Level near 1.16200–1.16400, where buyers stepped in and stopped the downward momentum. As shown on the chart, price is now trading inside a clear ascending structure, supported by the rising Support Line and guided by a parallel Resistance Line, forming a well-defined upward channel. Inside this structure, the Buyer Zone has played a key role, serving as the base for multiple impulsive breakouts in the past. Several breakdown attempts turned into fake breakouts, confirming that buyers continue to defend this area and maintain short-term trend control. After these rebounds, EURUSD pushed into the upper part of the channel, reaching the Resistance Line and forming a local rejection that caused a pullback back toward the Buyer Zone. Currently, price is hovering near the ascending support line, and as long as EURUSD stays above the 1.16400 support area, the bullish scenario remains intact. If buyers successfully defend this zone and maintain structure inside the rising channel, I expect the market to move toward TP1 → 1.17000, which aligns with the major Resistance Level highlighted on the chart. A clean breakout above this level would open the way for further continuation, potentially driving the pair deeper into the higher resistance zone. However, if the price breaks below the Buyer Zone and violates the ascending Support Line, the bullish scenario becomes invalid, and the pair may revisit lower support levels around the 1.16000 area. For now, the structure remains moderately bullish as long as demand holds and EURUSD continues respecting the rising channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
NML (PSX) – Bullish Setup on 4H Chart📈 Nishat Mills (NML) – 4H Bullish Reversal Setup with Multi-High Divergence
📍 Entry Zone: 148.96 – 150.75
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 140.93
🎯 Targets: TP1 @ 156 | TP2 @ 164 | TP3 @ 172+
✅ Key Trigger: Bullish RSI Divergence + Higher Lows (LL) forming after sharp decline
✅ Confirmation: Price reclaiming key trendline & breaking descending structure
✅ Risk-Reward: > 1:3 (Conservative entry near support)
Disclaimer:
*This idea is for educational and research purposes only, based on technical patterns. It is not investment advice. Always conduct your own analysis (DYOR) and manage your risk carefully before entering any trade.*
EURUSD Bullish Continuation After Expected CorrectionQuick Summary
A short term corrective move may occur on EURUSD to retest the Bullish trendline where the 61 Fibonacci level aligns with a clean orderblock. This confluence strengthens the likelihood of a bullish continuation once the correction is complete.
Full Analysis
The EURUSD is still maintaining an overall bullish structure, but the current price action suggests that a corrective decline could develop before the pair continues its upward movement. This expected pullback is not a sign of weakness but rather a healthy retracement within an established uptrend.
The key area to watch lies around the Bullish trendline, or slightly above it, where multiple elements converge to form a high probability demand zone. The 61 Fibonacci retracement level aligns almost perfectly with this Zone, providing a strong technical base for buyers to re enter the market.
CRUDE OIL Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL price executed a clean SMC breakout above the descending trendline, shifting structure into bullish order-flow as liquidity above recent highs was taken and demand stepped in. Time Frame 10H.
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AUD-USD Bullish Continuation Expected! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
AUDUSD taps into the reclaimed demand zone, showing a clean breakout and bullish displacement. Price is likely to retest the broken structure before expanding toward the target level. Time Frame 7H.
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.






















