NAS100 Rejection last 4H candle# 📊 NAS100 (SPOT NASDAQ100) Rejection TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🎯
## Week of November 10-14, 2025 | Intraday & Swing Trade Setup
Close Price: 25,121 | Entry Point: November 8, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4 💹
---
## 🔍 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - MULTI-TIMEFRAME PERSPECTIVE
The Nasdaq-100 index exhibits a compelling convergence of technical signals across all analyzed timeframes. Elliott Wave structure suggests we're navigating wave cycles with potential breakout scenarios emerging through harmonic pattern confirmations. Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating volatility consolidation before directional expansion. RSI readings across 5M-1H timeframes show overbought extremes transitioning to neutral zones, creating premium entry opportunities for disciplined traders. Volume analysis reveals institutional interest patterns correlating with Ichimoku Cloud positioning.
---
## 📈 TIMEFRAME-BY-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
### 5-MINUTE (Intraday Scalping) ⚡
Candle Pattern: Japanese candlesticks reveal micro-trend reversals with consecutive hammer formations suggesting buyer rejection zones. Evening Star patterns detected at resistance levels.
Elliott Wave: Sub-wave completion suggests wave 4 consolidation before wave 5 impulse move. Wave structure favors breakout traders targeting 25,280-25,420 resistance confluence.
Bollinger Bands: Middle band acts as dynamic support; lower band rejection patterns create high-probability short setups. Band squeeze indicating imminent volatility breakout.
RSI (14): Oscillating between 35-65 range—avoiding extremes. Divergences between price highs and RSI highs signal potential reversals at 25,180 and 25,240 levels.
Support & Resistance: Micro S/R zones at 25,095 | 25,140 | 25,180 | 25,220 | 25,280. Volume nodes clustered around 25,150.
VWAP: Price oscillating around session VWAP—each touch generates scalp opportunity. Aggressive traders fade upper band extremes.
### 15-MINUTE (Quick Swing) 🎢
Candlestick Analysis: Three-candle patterns emerging—flag continuation structures with potential for 60-80 pip breakouts. Engulfing bars confirming directional bias shifts.
Harmonic Patterns: Gartley Pattern formation detected—potential reversal zone (PRZ) at 25,165-25,195. Risk-reward ratio favorable at 1:2.5 for harmonic traders.
Wyckoff Theory: Accumulation phase evident with volume concentration and price consolidation. Distribution signs emerging—caution at resistance clusters.
Bollinger Bands: Band squeeze tightening—historical data shows 40-120 pip moves follow. Upper band resistance at 25,285; lower band support at 25,085.
Volume Analysis: Volume profile reveals point of control (POC) at 25,140—high-probability rejection zone. Volume surge required for breakout confirmation above 25,250.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price above cloud (bullish). Tenkan-sen at 25,205 acts as dynamic support. Kijun-sen (25,160) provides secondary support for pullback traders.
### 30-MINUTE (Intraday Swing) 🔄
Pattern Formation: Symmetrical Triangle formation with apex target at 25,290. Ascending triangle variant shows bullish bias—breakout above 25,270 targets 25,380-25,420 extension.
Dow Theory: Confirming higher highs & higher lows structure. Secondary trend remains bullish; pullbacks to moving average (EMA 20) present optimal entry zones.
RSI Divergence: Positive RSI divergence confirmed—price making lower lows while RSI forms higher lows at 42 level. Classic reversal setup targeting 25,260 minimum.
Exponential Moving Average: EMA 9 above EMA 21—bullish alignment. Price hugging EMA 9 (25,125) indicates strong intraday uptrend. EMA 50 (25,080) provides stop-loss anchor.
Support Zones: 25,080 (EMA 50) | 25,120 (EMA 9) | 25,160 (Kijun-sen) | 25,200 (Demand Zone)
Resistance Zones: 25,250 (Breakout trigger) | 25,290 (Triangle apex) | 25,350 (Weekly resistance)
### 1-HOUR (Core Swing Trade) 🎯
Elliott Wave Complete Picture: Primary trend shows potential Wave 3 completion near 25,350. Wave 4 correction (current consolidation) targeting 25,140-25,180 support zone. Wave 5 breakout anticipated—target: 25,450-25,520.
Pennant Pattern: Bullish Pennant formation within consolidation—breakout confirmation above 25,280 validates pattern. Minimum target: 25,450 (measured move from pole).
Bollinger Bands (1H): Upper band at 25,380 represents squeeze breakout target. Middle band (25,200) = bullish support. Lower band rejection creates risk-reward optimization point.
VWAP Daily: Price trading above VWAP—bullish gradient confirmed. Each hourly candle close above VWAP strengthens trend continuation probability. Rejection below VWAP = caution signal.
Volume Profile: Heavily traded at 25,150-25,180 (support) and 25,240-25,280 (resistance). Imbalances favor upside—low volume zone above 25,300 suggesting vacuum to fill.
Ichimoku Alignment: Price above Senkou Span A & B—cloud thickness indicates strong support. Chikou Span lag above candles = bullish confirmation. Cloud color shift (bullish green) reinforces uptrend.
Gann Theory: 45-degree angle trendline from swing low confirms rally angle. Resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci extension (25,280) precedes aggressive breakout phase.
### 4-HOUR (Swing Trade Foundation) 💼
Daily Chart Alignment: 4H timeframe shows potential Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern—right shoulder completing (current zone: 25,120-25,180). Breakout above 25,280 neckline targets 25,450-25,520 extension.
Wyckoff Accumulation: Institutional buying evident—small barometer move (SBM) triggers accumulation phase. Spring tests below support anticipated 25,080-25,100 zone.
RSI 4H: RSI at 54-60 range—neutral bullish. Still room for upside extension without extreme overbought. RSI above 70 targets 25,350+. Below 30 requires defensive posturing.
Cup & Handle Pattern: Potential bullish Cup formation completing—handle stabilization near 25,150-25,200. Breakout above handle (25,280) targets cup depth extension = 25,420.
EMA Ribbon: EMA 8, 13, 21, 50, 200 = bullish alignment. Compression and expansion cycles indicate momentum phases. Ribbon support at 25,120 = critical hold level.
Support Tiers 4H: 25,050 (structural) | 25,120 (EMA 8) | 25,160 (EMA 21) | 25,200 (demand cluster)
Resistance Tiers 4H: 25,280 (key breakout) | 25,350 (extension) | 25,420 (major target) | 25,500 (weekly projection)
### DAILY CHART (Swing Trade Thesis) 📅
Macro Elliott Wave: We're potentially in Wave 3 of a larger cycle—still room for aggressive expansion. Wave structure favors break of 25,350 targeting 25,500-25,650 daily close.
Double Bottom Recognition: Historical pattern shows Double Bottom formation near 25,000 support—confirmed breakthrough above 25,250 neckline triggered. Second target near 25,450-25,500.
Bollinger Bands Daily: Upper band at 25,480 = realistic daily target. Mean (25,200) = healthy pullback support. Band slope indicates volatility expansion—expect 250-400 pip daily ranges.
Volume Signature: Daily volume profile shows strong buying volume bar at 25,050-25,100 zone (institutional accumulation marker). Selling volume decreasing—demand controlling.
Ichimoku Daily: Cloud thickness growing—bullish trend strengthening. Cloud support around 25,150-25,200. Kumo Breakout anticipated—targets cloud top edge at 25,350-25,420.
Harmonic Analysis: Butterfly Pattern potential completion—PRZ at 25,280-25,320 suggests reversal zone OR breakout confirmation. Confluence amplifies probability.
Gann Angles & Fibonacci: 50% retracement (25,100) + 61.8% extension (25,420) = key reversal zones. Gann fan angles suggest 25,350-25,400 as structural resistance before continuation.
Key Daily Support: 25,000 (psychological/structural) | 25,050 (accumulation) | 25,140 (weekly midpoint) | 25,200 (demand zone)
Key Daily Resistance: 25,280 (breakout trigger) | 25,350 (extension) | 25,420 (measured move) | 25,500 (weekly target)
---
## 🎪 TRADING SETUP PLAYBOOK - NOV 10-14
### BULLISH SCENARIO (Probability: 72%) ✅
Trigger: 4H candle close above 25,280 + volume surge + RSI above 55
Entry Zone: 25,200-25,250 (with breakout confirmation)
Target 1: 25,350 | Target 2: 25,420 | Target 3: 25,500
Stop Loss: 25,120 (below EMA support)
Risk/Reward: 1:2.8 (excellent entry)
### BEARISH SCENARIO (Probability: 28%) ⚠️
Trigger: Daily close below 25,200 + volume increase + RSI divergence
Entry Zone: 25,280-25,300 (short setup)
Target 1: 25,200 | Target 2: 25,140 | Target 3: 25,050
Stop Loss: 25,350 (above resistance)
Risk/Reward: 1:2.1 (acceptable but lower probability)
---
## ⚠️ VOLATILITY & OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD CONDITIONS
Current Volatility Status: Moderate compression → Expect expansion soon
5M/15M: RSI in 40-65 range (neutral)—room for 25-40 pip moves
30M/1H: RSI near 55-60 (bullish bias, not extreme)
4H: RSI 54-62 range—still room to run without overbought
Daily: RSI 58-68 (approaching caution zone)—be defensive if daily RSI>75
Overbought Recognition Points:
Watch for RSI>75 combined with Band upper rejection + Ichimoku cloud top break fails. Take profits on technical extremes.
Oversold Setups:
RSI<30 on 1H + price below EMA 50 = high-probability bounce back to 25,200-25,250.
---
## 🎯 ENTRY & EXIT OPTIMIZATION
### OPTIMAL ENTRY TIMING
For Bullish Scalpers (5M): RSI bounce from 40-45 zone after Band lower touch = 15-25 pip scalp target
For Swing Traders (15M-30M): 15M candle close above 25,250 with 4H alignment = 60-120 pip swing target
For Core Swings (1H-4H): 4H pennant breakout above 25,280 on volume = 150-300+ pip target (hold 24-48 hours)
For Position Traders (Daily): Daily close above 25,350 = continuation play targeting 25,500-25,650 (hold 5-7 days)
### EXIT STRATEGIES
Take Profit Levels: 1. Fibonacci 38.2% = 25,280 | 2. Harmonic PRZ = 25,320 | 3. Daily Band upper = 25,420 | 4. Weekly target = 25,500
Stop Loss Placement: Below most recent swing low + 10 pips (risk management priority)
Trailing Stops: Activate at 25,350—trail with 40-50 pip buffer for 4H+ trades
Breakeven Exit: Move stops to entry after 1:1 risk/reward achieved—reduce emotional trading
---
## 🔔 REVERSAL & BREAKOUT RECOGNITION CHECKLIST
### REVERSAL SIGNALS TO WATCH:
RSI divergence (lower highs on price, higher lows on indicator)
Candlestick engulfing patterns at resistance/support zones
Volume breakdown (declining volume on breakout attempts)
Ichimoku Cloud rejection (price fails to penetrate cloud layer)
Harmonic pattern completion (Gartley/Butterfly PRZ exact hit)
Elliott Wave 5th wave failure (truncation pattern)
### BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION RULES:
Close beyond resistance on high volume (>20% volume increase)
RSI confirms breakout direction (above 55 for bullish, below 45 for bearish)
VWAP crosses align with directional move
Bollinger Band breakout with band expansion (squeeze release)
Multiple timeframe confluence (5M + 15M + 1H aligned)
Ichimoku Cloud break (price clears all clouds smoothly)
---
## 💡 WEEK FORECAST SUMMARY - NOV 10-14
Monday (10th): Consolidation continuation—watch for range break direction. European open volatility catalyst expected.
Tuesday-Wednesday: Breakout window opens—25,280 represents key decision point. Expect 150-250 pip daily moves.
Thursday: Potential pullback/consolidation after breakout (profit-taking). Support retest of 25,250-25,200.
Friday (14th): Weekly close pattern formation—extension run anticipated if above 25,350. Week target: 25,420-25,500.
---
## 📍 CRITICAL CONFLUENCE ZONES
25,080-25,100: Major support (accumulation zone, Wyckoff spring testing area)
25,140-25,180: Secondary support (EMA 9, Ichimoku, volume POC)
25,200-25,250: Entry zone (demand cluster, Cup handle support)
25,280-25,320: KEY BREAKOUT ZONE (all timeframe resistance, harmonic confluence)
25,350-25,420: Primary upside target (Elliott Wave 5, daily Band, measured move extension)
25,500+: Weekly resistance/extension target
---
## 🏆 RISK MANAGEMENT SUMMARY
✅ Never risk >2% account per trade
✅ Use 1:2+ risk/reward minimum on all entries
✅ Scale profits at 1:1 and 1:2 levels
✅ Maintain tight stops (10-15 pips on 1H trades)
✅ Avoid breakout FOMO—wait for close confirmation
✅ Respect daily support zones—psychological holds matter
---
## #TRADINGSETUP #NAS100 #TECHNICALANALYSIS #NASDAQ100
#ELLIOTTWAVE #HARMONICPATTERN #BREAKOUTTRADING #SWINGTRADER
#DAYTRADING #INTRADAY #FOREX #TRADING #ANALYSIS #TRADINGVIEW
#BOLLINGER BANDS #RSI #ICHIMOKU #VWAP #TRADINGSTRATEGY
#WYCKOFFMETHOD #GANNTHEORY #DOWTHEORY #TECHNICALS
#SUPPORTANDRESISTANCE #VOLUMEANALYSIS #OVERBOUGHT #OVERSOLD
---
Disclaimer: This analysis is educational only. Always conduct your own research and use appropriate risk management. Past performance ≠ future results. Trade at your own risk.
Analysis Created: November 8, 2025 | Valid Through: November 14, 2025
