GBPUSD Long Setup: Strong Services & Weak USD in FocusToday, we will examine the long position of GBPUSD ( OANDA:GBPUSD ) together from a fundamental and technical perspective .
Please stay with me.
GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis :
GBP Strength Signals:
CPI y/y: 3.8% vs 3.7% expected → higher inflation → less likelihood of rate cuts → supports GBP.
Flash Services PMI: 53.6 vs 51.8 expected → strong service sector → positive for GBP.
GBP Weak Signals:
Flash Manufacturing PMI: 47.3 vs 48.2 expected → contraction in manufacturing → short-term pressure on GBP.
USD Weak Signals:
US Unemployment Claims: 235K vs 226K expected → weaker labor market → negative for USD.
Summary:
Overall, data favors GBP over USD. Short-term to medium-term, GBPUSD is likely to show upside momentum, driven by strong services, higher inflation, and weaker USD labor data. Watch for upcoming US data or Fed comments that could change this bias.
Note: Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI will publish soon.
Note: Tomorrow, we will have Fed Chair Powell speak.
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Now let's take a technical look at the GBPUSD on the 4-hour timeframe .
GBPUSD is currently moving near the Heavy Support zone($1.343-$1.313) and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
In terms of Elliott wave theory , GBPUSD seems to have completed the corrective waves . The first signal to confirm the end of the corrective waves could be the break of the upper line of the descending channel . The corrective wave structure is most likely a Double Three Correction(WXY) .
I expect GBPUSD to rise to at least $1.357 AFTER the break of the upper line of the descending channel .
Second Target: $1.363
Note: Stop Loss(SL): 1.3326 USD = Worst Stop Loss(SL)
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British Pound / U.S Dollar Analysis (GBPUSD), 4-hour time frame.
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Britishpound
EURBGP Sell this Leg and buy at the bottom.Last time we took a look a the EURGBP pair (July 11, see chart below), we gave a buy signal inside the Channel Up, which quickly hit our 0.87400 Target:
This time the price has found itself on a decline, the latest Bearish Leg of the Channel Up. The previous two declined by -2.75% before bottoming and reversing. The 1D RSI Higher Lows can be an additional indicator as to where the Low can be priced.
We expect the pair to reach at least 0.85500 before starting the new Bullish Leg, which we believe will extend all the way near the top (1.0 Fibonacci) of the Channel Up. Our Target will be 0.8900.
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$GBIRYY - U.K Inflation Hits 18-Month High (July/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
July/2025
source: Office for National Statistics
- The UK’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July 2025 from 3.6% in June,
the highest since January 2024 and slightly above forecasts of 3.7%.
The uptick was led by higher transport costs linked to school summer holidays, with additional pressure from motor fuels, restaurants and hotels, and food and non-alcoholic beverages.
On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.1%,
defying forecasts of a 0.1% decline but slowing from June’s 0.3% gain.
Core inflation inched up to 3.8% from 3.7%.
British Pound can rise to 1.3680 points, exiting from wedgeHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about British Pound. The market dynamic for the British pound has undergone a significant reversal, shifting from a well-defined downward channel to a new bullish phase following a strong breakout from the buyer zone. This change in control has established a new upward trend, which has since been developing within the confines of a large upward wedge. The price action within this wedge has been constructive, with the asset making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Currently, the pair is undergoing a corrective pull-back after testing the seller zone near the top of the formation, and it is now approaching a key confluence of support around the 1.3535 level, where the ascending support line of the wedge is located. The primary working hypothesis is a long scenario, which anticipates that this correction will find strong support in this area, leading to a new upward impulse. The scenario further projects that this new impulse will not only carry the price to the wedge's resistance line but will have enough momentum to force a breakout to the upside, signalling an acceleration of the trend. Therefore, the TP for this breakout scenario is logically placed at the 1.3680 level, a target that represents a potential measured move following the resolution of the multi-week wedge pattern. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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GBPUSD Channel Up started a new Bullish LegThe GBPUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the January 13 2025 bottom. Right now, the pattern has already initiated the new Bullish Leg.
With the 1D RSI having rebounded on the 30.00 oversold level, it draws comparisons to the first Bullish Leg o the Channel Up. That made a +7.59% rise to hit its 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, our medium-term Target is set a 1.40575.
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British Pound will bounce up from support line of channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about British Pound. The market structure has undergone a notable transition from a bullish to a bearish phase, with the breakdown from a prior upward channel leading to the formation of a new, well-defined downward channel. This has shifted the market's momentum, with price action now being governed by the descending boundaries of this new formation, respecting the seller zone near the top and finding temporary footing at the bottom. The price has recently completed a significant downward impulse within this structure, arriving at a critical confluence of support around the 0.8600 level. This area is highly significant as it represents the intersection of the channel's lower support line and a strong horizontal buyer zone that has previously provided a floor for the price. The primary working hypothesis is a long, rotational scenario, based on the high probability of a bullish reaction from this key support cluster. A confirmed bounce from the buyer zone would signal that a corrective upward rebound is underway, offering an opportunity for a move back towards the upper boundary of the channel. Therefore, the TP for this long idea is logically placed at the 0.8700 resistance level. This target aligns perfectly with the major seller zone and the channel's upper resistance line, representing the most probable destination for a counter-trend rally of this nature. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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GBPJPY Bullish Leg has only just startedThe GBPJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 09 2025 Low. Following the August 04 Higher Low, it has technically initiated the new Bullish Leg.
Given its strength on such an early stage, we expect it to be identical to the first Bullish Leg that rose by +6.53% and, at the same time, had a similar 1D MACD Bullish Leg. Our medium-term Target is thus 207.000.
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British Pound can little grow and then drop to buyer zoneHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about British Pound. If we look at the chart, we can see how the price started to grow inside an upward channel, where it at once broke the 1.3280 level. In the channel, it rose to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, after which it rebounded and fell to the support line of the channel. Later, GBP rose to the seller zone and dropped, breaking the resistance level and exiting from the upward channel. Then the price entered to wedge and then made an impulse up, breaking the resistance level, and rose to the resistance line of the wedge. After this movement, it turned around and started to decline. Soon, it broke the 1.3580 level one more time and fell more. But later it turned around and rose to the 1.3580 resistance level, which coincided with the resistance line of the wedge. Then it dropped to the support line of the wedge, breaking the support level, but soon it backed up and rose back to the resistance line of the wedge pattern. Now I expect that the British Pound can continue to decline inside the wedge, and reach the buyer zone, breaking the support level. For this case, I set my TP at 1.3245 points, which coincided with the buyer zone. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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$GBINTR -BoE Cuts Rates as Expected (August/2025)ECONOMICS:GBINTR
August/2025
source : Bank of England
- The Bank of England voted by a 5–4 majority to cut the key Bank Rate by 25bps to 4% in August, in line with expectations.
This marks the fifth rate cut since August of last year and brings borrowing costs to their lowest level since March 2023.
However, the decision followed an initial three-way split, the first time that two rounds of voting were required to reach a conclusive decision on interest rates.
Tariffs, NZ unemployment, and rate cuts: Highlights for the weekAfter a packed calendar last week, this one looks lighter—but there are still key events across major economies likely to drive FX market movement.
India Tariffs and Oil Prices
U.S. President Donald Trump has announced plans to raise tariffs on Indian imports, citing India’s continued purchase and resale of Russian oil. The White House rightly claims this undermines sanctions and helps fund the war in Ukraine. India’s Ministry of External Affairs called the move “unjustified and unreasonable.”
New Zealand Jobs Data — Wednesday
New Zealand’s Q2 unemployment rate is expected to rise from 5.1% to 5.3%, the highest level since late 2015. With inflation back within the RBNZ’s 1–3% target range, a soft labour print could provide the final justification for a rate cut at the next policy meeting.
Bank of England Rate Decision — Thursday
The BoE is widely expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points this week, responding to slowing economic momentum despite ongoing inflation concerns. Traders will closely watch Governor Bailey’s remarks to gauge whether this marks the start of a broader easing cycle or a single adjustment.
GBPUSD: The Bears Have it! Sell it!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 4 - 8th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
GBPUSD
Even against a weakened USD, the GBP is weaker.
July ended with an aggressive bearish candle. August may see more of the same.
Then there is talk of interest rate cuts coming.....
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GBP/CAD Clarity in Motion! Levels Are Locked In Hey everyone 👋
📌 BUY LIMIT ORDER / GBP/CAD Key Levels
🟢 Entry: 1,83873
🎯 Target 1: 1,84104
🎯 Target 2: 1,84372
🎯 Target 3: 1,85040
🔴 Stop: 1,83316
📈 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.18
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EURGBP Perfect Channel Up giving one more buy opportunity.Last time we looked at the EURGBP pair (May 30, see chart below) we gave the most timely buy signal right at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone, and the price is only a few candles away from the 0.87400 Target:
If we look at the price action from a 4H perspective we can see that it is a Channel Up that has been driving the pair upwards since the May 28 bottom and today's rebound is taking place after a direct hit on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
This is the start of the new Bullish Leg. Since the previous two have increased by +1.90%, this rally has the potential to even exceed our 0.87400 Target marginally. Still, this is a perfect bullish set-up.
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Technical + Fundamental Alignment: GBPUSD Short in PlayGBPUSD ( FX:GBPUSD ) is moving near the Resistance zone($1.354-$1,350) and has managed to break the Support line .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that GBPUSD has completed the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) , we can expect the next five bearish waves .
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Fundamental Analysis
1-Weak UK Economic Data:
Recent reports including Retail Sales, Industrial Output, and PMIs have come in below expectations.
Labour market is softening, and wage growth is decelerating.
2-Dovish Expectations for BoE:
With inflation cooling down, the Bank of England is expected to hold or even cut rates soon, reducing support for the pound.
3-Stronger USD Outlook
Despite some weaker U.S. data, the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. U.S. retail sales and inflation still support the dollar overall.
4-UK Political Risk
Upcoming UK elections on July 4 are adding uncertainty and downside risk to GBP.
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I expect GBPUSD to attack at least the Support lines based on the above explanation.
Targets: 1.3
1)1.3353 USD =>Risk-To-Reward: 1.51
2)1.3315 USD =>Risk-To-Reward: 2.00
Note: Stop Loss(SL): 1.3549 USD
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
British Pound / U.S Dollar Analyze (GBPUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
GBPUSD hit its 1D MA50. Perfect buy signal.The GBPUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the January 13 2025 market bottom. Yesterday it hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 08.
This is the most efficient buy entry as the 1D MA50 has been supporting since the February 13 break-out. Even the 1D CCI turned oversold and rebounded, which is consistent with all bottom buys inside the Channel Up.
The Bullish Leg can extend to as high as +5.05% but due to the presence of the Inner Higher Highs trend-line, we first target 1.3850 (+3.43% rise).
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$GBINTR - Steady Rates by BoE (June/2025)ECONOMICS:GBINTR
June/2025
source: Bank of England
- The Bank of England voted 6-3 to keep the Bank Rate steady at 4.25% at its June meeting, amid ongoing global uncertainty and persistent inflation.
The central bank noted inflation is expected to remain at current rates for the rest of the year before easing back toward the target next year,
indicating that a gradual and cautious approach to further monetary policy easing remains appropriate.
GBPJPY Strong rebound. Buy opportunity.The GBPJPY pair has been trading within an Ascending Triangle pattern. Today's geopolitics made the price form its latest Higher Low at the bottom of the pattern, which also coincided with a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test, and rebounded.
That was a clear buy signal on the 4H RSI Support that signaled the last three bottom buys. Our Target is the top of the pattern at 196.300.
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EURGBP Megaphone bottom. Strong buy opportunity.The EURGBP pair is trading within a Bullish Megaphone since the start of the year. For the past 2 weeks it has been ranging within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is technically the bottom formation of the pattern on its new Higher Low, as the 1D RSI has been printing the same sequence as February's which priced the previous Higher Low.
We are expecting at least a Resistance 1 test at 0.87400.
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GBPJPY Channel Down making a Lower High rejectionThe GBPJPY pair rose aggressively since the last time we gave our buy signal (April 11, see chart below), quickly hitting our conservative 109.250 Target:
The price has since made a Lower High rejection at the top of the Channel Down but remains supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Once broken and it closes a 1D candle below it, we will have bearish break-out signal. Our Targe will be 185.250, which will be the standard -5.85% decline that all 3 previous Bearish Legs had within the Channel Down.
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GBPUSD: MACD Cross confirms more upsideGBPUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.696, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 36.278) as it's been inside a Channel Up since the start of the year (January 13th 2025 low). At the moment the 1D MA50 is holding and provides the short term support. The 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross, validating the new bullish wave. We are bullish, aiming for another +3.63% HH rise (TP = 1.3600).
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