How to build Discipline & Structured Trading HabitsDiscipline is not something you rely on in the moment; it is something you build through habits that remove emotional decision-making from your trading process.
1. Define Rules Before You Trade
Traders without predefined rules rely on emotion. Traders with rules rely on structure.
Clearly define your entry criteria, risk per trade, maximum daily loss, and exit strategy.
When these rules exist before the session starts, you eliminate most impulsive behaviors.
2. Limit Your Daily Decisions
Every decision drains mental energy. The more choices you make, the weaker your discipline becomes.
Reduce the number of markets you watch, the number of setups you take, and the amount of chart time you expose yourself to.
Fewer decisions lead to higher-quality decisions.
3. Use a Pre-Session Checklist
A checklist forces you into a disciplined routine. It can include:
• Reviewing your trading plan
• Checking upcoming news releases
• Confirming your bias or market conditions
• Ensuring your risk settings are correct
The act of going through the checklist prepares your mind to follow structure.
4. Implement a Hard Stop for the Day
One of the fastest ways to lose discipline is to trade while emotional.
Set a maximum daily drawdown. Once it is hit, the session ends. No exceptions.
This protects both your capital and your psychology.
5. Track Your Rule Breaks
Most traders only track wins and losses. Disciplined traders also track deviations.
Write down every time you break a rule, why it happened, and how you plan to prevent it next time.
Over time, this builds awareness and accountability.
6. Delay Impulsive Actions
If you feel the urge to jump into a trade that does not fit your plan, delay the action by 30 to 60 seconds.
Impulses lose power quickly. By introducing a pause, you give your rational mind time to regain control.
7. Keep Your Environment Clean
Distractions destroy discipline.
Silence notifications, close irrelevant tabs, and avoid multitasking.
A clean trading environment supports clean decisions.
8. End Each Session With a Routine
A consistent end-of-day routine reinforces discipline. Examples:
• Rating your discipline on a scale from 1 to 10
• Reviewing whether you followed your rules
• Logging emotional triggers
Ending the day with structure makes it easier to begin the next one with structure.
Conclusion
Discipline is not built through motivation but through habits that create consistent behavior. A structured trading routine removes uncertainty, minimizes emotional influence, and helps you operate like a professional rather than a reactive participant.
Btc-bitcoin
INTERVIEW: Hope phase - EXCAVO’s View 25/11/25
1. Do you believe the bear market has already begun? If yes - from what moment?
Yes. The bear market started in November 2025.
My cyclicality chart shows it clearly: not a single scenario points to continued upside.
Every chart I posted on TradingView confirms the trend reversal.
2. What was the main signal confirming the reversal?
The 153rd week of Bitcoin’s growth — a historic exhaustion point that almost always marks the end of a cycle.
3. What BTC levels are critical for the downside scenario?
The key horizontal level is $74,000.
At minimum, I expect a clean wick below it.
4. What fundamental factors accelerated the bear market?
A massive overbought environment.
The 2-year AI bubble pushed valuations far above fair value.
The market became overheated — even though AI is here to stay.
5. Technical factors confirming the decline?
We’re dropping without any real reason.
Any small headline triggers selling.
October 11 wasn’t about Trump — it was a whale manipulation on big exchanges.
That’s how late-stage cycles behave.
6. Why did most traders fail to see this reversal?
— Short memory
— Conditioned for 3 years to “buy every dip”
— No exit plan
— No clear framework
— And of course: they weren’t following EXCAVO 😉
7. Where could BTC go in the coming weeks?
First: liquidation of short positions.
We may even spike up to $94,000.
But that would be a trap before continuation downward.
In December, I expect the formation of one of the cycle bottoms.
8. Which scenario seems more likely — panic drop or step-by-step bleed?
Most likely: a step-by-step bleed.
9. Is a fake bounce possible before further decline?
Yes. I already mentioned it: a short squeeze → then a big drop.
Practical Part
10. What are you personally doing in this market?
I’m waiting.
Observing.
Studying.
You don’t need to be in a trade every day.
Overtrading destroyed more traders than any correction.
11. What should beginners do now?
Exactly what professionals do: wait for their entry point.
We’re hunters in the bushes — we shoot only when the target is close.
12. What should traders revise in their strategy right now?
— Understand where we are in the macro cycle
— Identify what’s working
— Remove what’s not
— Accept that the bear market will be long and exhausting
Right now we’re in the hope phase.
Disappointment is ahead.
Best regards EXCAVO
If you have any questions, feel free to ask. In the next post, I can do another interview based on the questions you leave under this one.
Bitcoin 2 Week RSIBitcoinUSD 2 Week stock RSI (14 period close)
The current level has been associated with 50-60% corrections in all of the past cycles
Bitcoin doesn't repeat patterns forever, just until enough people have noticed them
If this pattern does continue, a rapid and large correction could be imminent
BITCOIN - PRESSURE BUILDING - SHORT SQUEEZE INCOMING?Traders,
Bitcoin might be preparing a short squeeze. Let’s walk through the flow, structure, math, and correlations step-by-step so you understand what is happening and why it matters.
1. What Happened
Bitcoin dumped from 96k → 80.6k last week. Price then bounced and is now trading around 87k.
Under the surface:
Stablecoin-Margined Futures (USDT-M)
Since 27 Oct:
OI increased from 225k → 280k contracts
That’s +55k contracts (~24% increase)
CVD went down, not up
Meaning:
These new positions were mostly shorts
The market added leveraged short exposure during the dump
Interpretation:
USDT-M traders attacked the move lower aggressively. Increasing OI + dropping CVD = new sellers dominating, not buyers.
Coin-Margined Futures (BTC-M)
Since 27 Oct:
OI and CVD both dropped from 7.41B → 5.90B
BTC-M is usually “higher conviction” demand
A drop in BTC-M CVD means
Longs closing
Capitulation
Reduced bullish positioning
Interpretation:
Native BTC longs stepped aside. Short-term leverage traders pressed the downside.
Spot + Futures CVD (27 Oct → 21 Nov)
Spot CVD ↓
Futures CVD ↓
Price ↓
All making lower lows and lower highs
This was a clean, correlated downtrend.
2. The First Major Shift: Spot CVD Divergence
Since 21 November:
Spot CVD:
Higher highs
Higher lows
Rising together with price
Indicates real demand stepping in
Stablecoin Futures (USDT-M):
Still making lower lows
Still pressing shorts
Still fighting the spot buyers
This is the key:
Spot = real money
Futures = leveraged speculation
Rising spot CVD vs falling futures CVD = absorption pattern
Meaning:
Strong hands buy
Weak shorts keep selling
Price rises anyway
The pressure builds
Shorts eventually run out
The squeeze begins
This is one of the cleanest pre-squeeze structures you can get.
3. The Math: Fibonacci Rotation Logic
Let’s break down the structure.
(A → B → C Structure)
A = 116k (27 Oct)
B = 98.710
C = 107.403 (retracement)
The retrace sits at 0.5.
The reciprocal extension is 2.0
The 2.0 extension lands exactly at the 21 Nov wick (~81k)
This is a perfect harmonic rotation.
(X → Z → A Extension)
X = 06 Oct high
Z = 18 Oct low
A = 27 Oct high
Fibonacci extension from X → Z → A:
1.618 extension = 80.544
It matches the 2.0 from the ABC structure
It matches the 0.886 retracement on the HTF
Three independent mathematical signals hitting the same level. This is extremely rare and confirms the 81k zone as a rotation completion.
4. Structure Break
Since the 10 Nov low:
4H is making higher highs & higher lows
The descending trendline from 11 Nov is broken
Trend shifted from controlled downtrend → early reversal
Structure now favors continuation upwards as long as higher lows hold
Interpretation:
Sellers who relied on the trendline no longer have control.
4.5 Intermarket Correlation: Why Bitcoin Dumped When ES Dumped
Another important factor:
Bitcoin dumped because ES dumped.
From 12 Nov → 21 Nov:
S&P500 (ES)
Dropped from 6900 → 6525
–5.43% correction
Bitcoin:
Dropped from 107k → 80.5k
–24.77% correction
BTC acted as a ~4.5× levered version of ES.
BTC acted as a ~4.5× levered version of ES.
Correlation Data:
Rolling BTC/ES correlation increased from 0.38 → 0.74
Meaning BTC traded almost in sync with equities during the selloff
Why?
Risk-Off Mechanics
When ES sells off:
Equity funds de-risk
Macro algos rotate out of high beta
Volatility spikes
Systematic funds reduce exposure
Crypto is treated as “high beta tech”
BTC amplifies the move by a factor of 3–5×
Bitcoin didn’t dump because crypto was weak — It dumped because macro markets were risk-off.
Why this matters now
ES has stabilized
BTC stopped following ES lower
Spot demand started rising
BTC/ES correlation is dropping again (from 0.78 → ~0.55)
USDT-M shorts didn’t adjust
This is exactly when short squeezes start on BTC:
Macro stabilizes
Crypto regains independence
Shorts remain positioned for risk-off
Spot buyers take control
Price accelerates upward
This is a classic intermarket correlation unwind.
5. USDT Dominance (USDT.D) Confirms Risk Rotation
USDT dominance has turned down, which means:
Traders are deploying capital
Less stablecoin sitting idle
More risk-on appetite
Historically aligns with BTC beginning new legs up after HTF rotations
When USDT.D falls at the same time spot CVD rises, the market is shifting capital into crypto.
6. Targets: 118.5k → 124k
These are the next liquidity magnets.
Target #1: 118.5k
Confluences with:
1.141 extension of the 11 Nov → 12 Nov move
First major liquidity pool
First real “decision point” for the market
Target #2: 124k
Confluences with:
A weak high that will be swept
1.618 extension of the same 11→12 Nov move
Natural squeeze exhaustion zone
Perfect location for a Swing Fail Pattern
Rotation Logic
Shallow retraces → larger extensions (1.618 → 2.0)
Deep retraces → smaller extensions (1.272 → 1.414)
BTC currently fits the shallow retrace profile → favors strong extension
7. Other Pivot Points
Marked on the chart:
Minor LVNs
Minor-imbalances
CME Gaps
Expect reaction at each point.
8. Invalidation & Bearish Pathway
My invalidation is clear:
Trading below 80k invalidates the squeeze setup.
Below 80k, the absorption breaks.
If 80k is lost, the downside extension levels become:
74k
70k
64k
These levels are:
The natural downside extension pathways from the 11 Nov → 21 Nov swing
They form the mirrored rotation of the bullish structure
Final View
We dumped because macro went risk-off
Bitcoin amplified the ES selloff
Shorts loaded heavily into the move
Spot buyers stepped in first
A clean absorption pattern formed
Mathematical rotation completed at ~81k
Structure flipped
Risk metrics like USDT.D turned down
Correlation with ES is now unwinding
If Bitcoin continues to hold above 80k and spot keeps leading, the squeeze toward 118.5k → 124k becomes the most likely path.
Abbreviation List
BTC – Bitcoin
ES – S&P500 E-Mini Futures
OI – Open Interest
CVD – Cumulative Volume Delta
USDT-M – Stablecoin-Margined Futures
BTC-M – Coin-Margined Futures
HTF – Higher Timeframe
LVN – Low Volume Node
AVWAP – Anchored Volume-Weighted Average Price
PRZ – Potential Reversal Zone
SFP – Swing Fail Pattern
Fib – Fibonacci
CTA – Commodity Trading Advisor (systematic trend-following funds)
VIX – Volatility Index
Beta – Sensitivity of an asset’s movement relative to a benchmark
Risk-Off – Market environment where investors reduce exposure to risky assets
Risk-On – Market environment where investors increase exposure to risky assets
-----
If you enjoy this type of deep, data-driven breakdown—spot vs futures, CVD flow, intermarket correlation, and rotation math—drop a like and leave a comment. It helps me see whether these higher-level analyses bring value, and it motivates me to keep sharing them for free.
Bitcoin, one more push lower then all time highPrice dropped hard in wave Y of a flat correction, which is expected. Sentiment is at an all-time low for the longest time on record.
This complex correction looks almost complete at the S3 daily pivot, where I bought, but I am giving it room for one more push lower to complete 5 waves down for Y.
Price is well below the daily 200EMA, which will offer some resistance on the way back up. For now, the trend is down, so further downside is the higher probability.
📈 Daily RSI has reached oversold with no divergences. This is where all other ranges bottomed, and the price went on to make new highs.
👉 Continued downside brings up the next High Volume Node at $76000
Safe trading
BTCUSDT.P - November 25, 2025Bitcoin is in a corrective phase within a longer-term downtrend, with price recently rejected from the 89,500 resistance area and now trending lower. The chart highlights a short trading range between a defined stop level near 89,500 and a profit level at 85,721, aligning closely to horizontal support and resistance. Current price action and momentum favor sellers, as the market presses toward lower support with weak upward retracement. A break below support could accelerate selling toward the next downside target, while reclaiming resistance might shift bias to a short-term reversal.
Altcoins Market ETA- So this graphic show only Cryptos and when i speak only Cryptos, it means " No BTC, No ETH, Not Stablecoins ", Only Altcoins !
- This post is not a price prediction, not a FUD, and not a FOMO, it's just my own opinion based on facts.
- Without BTC/ETH and Stables, the crypto market barely reaches $580B MC, a nutshell in the ocean of global finance. Cryptos have already been rejected four times around the $900B MC.
----------------------------------------------------------
- In 2021 we had DeFi.
- In 2022 we had L1/L2 wars.
- In 2023 we had AI.
- In 2024 we had memecoins.
But 2025 has no new narrative.
----------------------------------------------------------
Cycles always go like :
BTC → ETH → Large caps → Mid caps → Micro caps
but this time :
- There's too many new tokens, too many VCs and early insiders droping on retails.
- Altcoins are falling due to a lack of liquidity, no compelling narrative, and absent buyers, while market makers focus on protecting themselves with BTC and stablecoins. ( Dyor on what happened on 10th October 2025 ).
- Right now, most people are holding their breath, waiting for the Fed to launch the next round of QE and another rate cut.
- Money makes Money, the world is working like that.
- My advice for now: be patient. If you already hold crypto and believe in your projects, just HODL. If you’re new to crypto, stay on the sidelines and wait until the market surpasses $1 trillion.
- Comments are welcome but stay sharp and thoughtful.
Be Safe!
Happy Tr4Ding !
BTCUSDT.P - November 24, 2025Bitcoin recently formed a short-term ascending channel, showing improving momentum after a strong prior selloff. Price is currently consolidating near 86,900, with key support at 85,900 and 84,400, and resistance at 88,100 and 91,900. A breakout above 88,100 would signal additional bullish momentum toward 91,900, while any failure to hold above the rising trendline could trigger a retest of lower support levels. The current structure suggests neutral to slightly bullish momentum in the immediate term.
BTC: The Bitcoin bounce is not a trend reversal🚫 The Bitcoin bounce is not a trend reversal
Here’s why the current move looks more like a liquidity trap than a real bullish reversal:
- Momentum is lagging — the rebound isn’t supported by strength.
- Liquidity spikes look engineered to squeeze short positions rather than coming from genuine buyers.
- ETFs are selling while BTC is pumping → classic exit liquidity behaviour.
- We remain in a bearish trend, and the current flag pattern is on the verge of breaking. Statistically, these patterns break down, with targets equal to the size of the previous leg.
- Price is rising while volume is falling → this is a hidden bearish divergence on volume.
🎯 What I’m seeing
It looks like many institutions were caught off guard by the depth of this downtrend, and now they’re trying to reduce exposure.
They appear to be engineering a bounce to attract retail FOMO, allowing them to exit with smaller losses — a classic liquidity extraction move.
As I’ve mentioned several times already:
👉 The primary trend remains bearish until Q2 2026, though we should expect bounces and manipulative moves along the way.
⚠️ My advice
Don’t deploy all your capital into a fake FOMO rally and become the institutions’ exit liquidity.
Wait for a proper bottom confirmation, such as:
A W pattern, followed by a successful retest with a higher low.
❌ Invalidation
This analysis becomes invalid only if the current pattern breaks upward with strong volume.
DYOR
BTCUSD Liquidity Sweep Setup Before Bearish ContinuationBTCUSD Liquidity Sweep Setup Before Bearish Continuation
Overview
BTCUSD continues to display persistent downside pressure across the mid-term structure. Price action on the 3H timeframe shows a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, reflecting sustained bearish control. Despite short periods of stabilization, the overall market environment remains distribution-driven.
Market Structure
Recent price behavior confirms multiple break-of-structure (BOS) events, each reinforcing the broader downward momentum. Every attempt at upward expansion has been met with supply absorption, indicating that buyers are failing to regain initiative. The consolidation developing in the current region suggests an accumulation of short-term liquidity, but without structural evidence of reversal.
Supply & Liquidity Context
Price is positioned directly beneath a key supply zone highlighted on the chart. This zone remains unmitigated and acts as the primary area where counter-trend reactions are likely to be absorbed. The tightening range beneath this level indicates liquidity buildup, commonly preceding engineered sweeps by institutional players.
The current model suggests that the market may execute a short-term liquidity run above local highs before resuming its downward trajectory. Such a move would align with previous behavior in this trend cycle, where short-term rallies were primarily used to deliver liquidity into higher-timeframe supply.
Downside Expansion Risk
Should the market complete a liquidity sweep into the supply zone, the next phase of downside continuation becomes probable. The structural projection on the chart anticipates a revisiting of the lower demand region around 74,300 – 75,000, an area aligning with previous inefficiencies and untested demand.
This target supports the continuation of the broader bearish structure unless a significant shift in order flow emerges.
Summary
BTCUSD remains positioned within a well-defined bearish cycle, characterized by repeated structure breaks and unmitigated supply zones controlling price. Current compression suggests the market is preparing for another liquidity-driven move. Unless buyers regain structure above the key supply region, the market retains a high probability of extending toward lower demand zones.
Bitcoin Hits Heavy Support Zone — Is the Next Big Crash Coming?Recently, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) experienced another decline of over -10%, largely due to the sudden drop in the S&P 500( SP:SPX ). As I mentioned in previous ideas, in recent weeks, Bitcoin and the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, have shown a strong correlation with U.S. indices, particularly the S&P 500. This means that even technically sound analyses for Bitcoin can fail if we don’t consider these external factors, which is quite normal. Therefore, it’s crucial to incorporate all parameters—news, fundamentals, on-chain data, and relevant indices—to get an accurate Bitcoin analysis. This complexity can make things a bit challenging.
Over the past ten days, Bitcoin has swiftly broken through several support levels. Many factors have contributed to Bitcoin’s decline recently, but it’s now approaching a heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280). This zone is crucial because if Bitcoin loses it, we could see even larger declines, affecting altcoins as well. Altcoins, in general, haven’t matched Bitcoin’s gains in recent months, so a significant drop in Bitcoin could lead to severe losses for them. It’s essential to manage your investments carefully and stay alert.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent decline suggests that Bitcoin might be in the midst of a five-wave downward, which isn’t positive news. There’s a chance that the heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280) might be breached. However, considering that weekends typically have lower trading volumes, it’s less likely that the support will break in the next couple of days. Still, we must remain vigilant and prepared for any scenario.
In terms of Elliott Waves, it seems Bitcoin has completed its main wave 3, and we might be looking at the completion of the wave 4 over the weekend, with another push towards the heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280) at the start of next week.
Also, the USDT.D% ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ) chart looks bullish, which could not be good news for Bitcoin.
I expect that after a brief rebound, Bitcoin will resume its decline and test the heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280) again.
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $89,642-$88,079
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $80,263-$78,131
First Target: $78,523
Second Target: $75,123
Stop Loss(SL): $92,123(Worst)
Points may shift as the market evolves
Note: The S&P 500 also might face downward pressure in the coming days, which could further impact Bitcoin’s support levels. It’s essential to manage your investments carefully and wait for strong reversal signals in higher timeframes. You might miss out on some short-term gains, but it will allow for more confident entries later on.
Note: Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela are escalating day by day. Should these tensions intensify to the point of direct confrontation, it could act as a trigger for another Bitcoin decline. It’s important to keep this in mind.
Note: Additionally, there have been some suspicious transfers involving the Mt. Gox exchange recently. It’s worth monitoring these developments closely.
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
BTCUSDT.P - November 23, 2025Bitcoin remains in a pronounced daily downtrend with persistent lower highs and lower lows, reflecting strong bearish momentum. The price is now targeting major support zones near 78,250 and 60,300. There is currently no indication of reversal; a sustained move above support would be necessary to suggest any bullish recovery. Until then, momentum and trend bias remain decisively bearish.
Saylor’s Master Plan at Risk? MSCI Drops the HammerMSCI May Exclude Crypto-Heavy Companies: What It Means for MicroStrategy and the Market
MSCI recently published a proposal that could dramatically reshape how global indices treat companies with large crypto exposure.
According to the framework, companies holding more than 50% of their market capitalization in digital assets may be excluded from national and international indices.
This sounds technical - but the consequences are huge.
What This Means in Practice
If the rule is implemented, companies like MicroStrategy, Bitfarms, Marathon, Hut8, Coinbase, or any firm holding a large percentage of crypto on their balance sheet, may:
be excluded from major indices,
lose exposure to institutional investors,
be off-limits for pension funds, insurers and conservative hedge funds,
face reduced liquidity and forced selling.
This is not a small development.
This is a structural shift.
🧩 Why MicroStrategy Is the Most Exposed
MicroStrategy’s business model has been extremely straightforward:
issue new shares
raise debt (including convertible notes)
use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin
rising BTC → rising MSTR
rising MSTR → more borrowing capacity
A perpetual loop.
But if MSTR gets excluded from key indices, the loop breaks:
passive funds must sell
institutional investors face compliance risk
liquidity dries up
volatility increases
borrowing costs rise
And remember:
MicroStrategy currently trades below the fair value of its Bitcoin holdings.
A forced outflow amplifies the structural imbalance.
⚠️ Why Institutions Bought MicroStrategy Instead of Bitcoin
Many funds legally cannot buy Bitcoin.
They also cannot buy high-risk crypto exchange stocks like Coinbase.
But they can buy:
reputable corporate debt
convertible notes
equity from a listed U.S. corporation
Michael Saylor gave them a regulatory loophole:
“Want Bitcoin exposure? Buy my convertible debt.
If BTC rises, convert the notes into shares.”
This workaround is now cracking.
Convertible Debt Holders Are in a Tough Spot
If MSTR is excluded from indices:
index funds sell → share price drops
falling price → convertible notes lose value
institutions holding the debt face losses
the balance sheet risk increases
This is why regulatory decisions matter so much.
Insider Selling: VP of Bitcoin at MicroStrategy Sells ~$19.7M Worth of Stock
The timing is… interesting.
Started selling on September 18
Sold options-based shares in multiple lots
Continued selling until November 14
Total realized profit: ~$19.69M
Selling into regulatory uncertainty is not random behavior.
It’s a signal.
Key Takeaways
1. MSCI’s proposal changes the rules:
companies with >50% crypto exposure may become “non-indexable”.
2. MicroStrategy’s core model—borrowing to buy BTC—depends on institutional inflows.
Index exclusion disrupts it.
3. Convertible note investors may face severe pressure.
4. Insider selling suggests internal awareness of structural risk.
5. If MSTR is removed from indices, forced selling could create significant downside pressure.
📉 Conclusion
MicroStrategy has long been a “Bitcoin ETF before ETFs existed”.
Institutions bought MSTR because they couldn’t buy BTC directly.
But now:
Bitcoin ETFs exist,
regulations are tightening,
index providers are updating risk frameworks.
MicroStrategy may become a victim of its own success strategy.
Best regards EXCAVO
A new look at previous logarithmic channelWith the trendlines of this channel slightly shifted we can see that it is possible that priceaction has already tested the top trendline of the channel. However in my previous version of this idea which I will try to post below it hasn’t connected with the top trendline yet. Would make more sense for it to be having the rejection it is having if it has already retested this top trendline though so I decided to post this version of the chart too so I can keep an eye on both. Even if somehow this does signal some sort of top it looks like we have very strong support on the next trendline just below the current one which should have the monthly 50ma double reinforcing its support in the very near future. SOo in that case that 50k zone there should hold strong support,but hopefully this is So another correction and not the top in which case the current trendline we have just retested will hold support. *not financial advice*
BTC Cup and Handle Still Not CompleteAs you can see the SPX broke out of the cup and handle and completed the measured move. It then corrected back down to the top of the handle and resumed its uptrend. This is what is coming for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has only half way completed the cup and handle. Measured move to around 300k before correcting back down to 70k and then back off to the races. Hold onto your hats. That would be the most epic move of all time a straight shot from here to 300k no pullback then slam back down to 70k and then back up to 500k. Could happen fast dont underestimate Bitcoin.
Just my opinion not financial advice.
Bitcoin Breakdown: Macro Trend Under PressureBitcoin’s climb to 126,327.15 now reads like the last breath of a fading trend. That high wasn’t just a price point it was the last surge of bullish confidence before the chart quietly and consistently began breaking down.
Lower highs formed, momentum weakened, and what looked like healthy consolidation slowly revealed itself as exhaustion. The rising triangle that once hinted at continuation eventually failed. Buyers couldn’t break the ceiling, sellers kept pressing the floor, and the entire formation finally snapped.
When Bitcoin fell out of that triangle, it didn’t stumble it collapsed. The real damage came when price cut straight through the 50-week SMA , the line that separates long-term strength from long-term weakness. This weekly moving average has defined every Bitcoin cycle since Bitcoin’s inception. Staying above it signals a healthy macro trend; falling below it signals a corrective phase.
The break this time wasn’t subtle. A heavy red candle with the largest sell volume on the chart sliced through the 50-week SMA. That’s what capitulation looks like.
Currently, Bitcoin sits below the 50-week SMA . For BTC to turn bullish again, it must reclaim that line no exceptions, no shortcuts. Anyone talking about $200,000 Bitcoin should note that until BTC gets back above $ 103,300 , the macro bullish thesis is paused.
Michael Saylor has been a prominent figure in the Bitcoin narrative, often associated with large-scale accumulation through corporate channels. As the market adjusts, we may soon see Bitcoin’s price reflect its true, organic strength or weakness, independent of corporate sentiment.
Nothing has changed since my last view. My targets remain:
$89,000 – initial support, now under pressure
$83,000 – major demand zone
$76,000 – deeper correction territory
$58,000 – full cycle flush if panic accelerates
Until Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week SMA and rises above 103,300 , the macro trend remains tilted downward. The market is approaching a moment where Bitcoin stands fully on its own without corporate lifelines or narrative amplification.
Form my last post, my views still stand for price TR.
Previous pattern repeating?Possible repeating pattern in Bitcoin here.
If so, a possible stop near the upper white line as it did previously with a very slightly higher 2nd low, then start moving up slowly after finding its lows, and finally spike up and find a new high.
Must not lose the thick red line around 49k if we make a lower low.
Volume needs to come back in and start flipping green vs the present rising red volume being seen on weekly chart now.
This could take upwards of 6 months or longer to play out.
BTCUSDT.P - November 22, 2025Bitcoin is in a pronounced downtrend, with price action consistently making lower highs under the descending trendline and currently trading below both resistance levels at 86,313 and 88,214. Recent momentum remains bearish, with sellers actively defending rallies and price targeting the marked support band near 78,800–79,000; unless price recovers above 86,313 resistance, expect further weakness and trend continuation.
Will this date come true?This is not fundamentally unbelievable, especially with the manipulation of governments in the crypto market
What is completely clear to us activists is the manipulation of absurd markets with great temptation by the yellow-haired doll and the child politicians and child killers around him.
Although I am not active in this market, I feel sorry for you, despite this cesspool soaked in the blood and hearts of the people of the world!
These numbers may not be realized, but the much blood that has been spilled on the ground will rise and the consequences will drown it.
The freedmen will definitely win.
And I must say, this analysis may expire after a while:
Good luck
MJ.REZAEI
Bitcoin is approaching an important support level (1D)Bitcoin has entered a strong bearish structure.
It is currently near an important origin zone that has broken significant highs (BOS). It is expected to make an upward reversal from this area.
It’s natural for this momentum to require some base-building, and since the movement is on the daily timeframe, the upward reversal may take some time.
The target range is 95K to 96K.
A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis
Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting
Comment if you have any questions
thank you






















