This Isn’t a Reversal — It’s Only Phase Two. $BTC>65k Thank you for your attention! This is exactly what you've been hearing since September 2025. Next, we'll form the bottom, and reaccumulate until October.
A smart person told me to stop posting publicly. Make everything private, but I continue to publish my thoughts for you.
There are no entry points for positions here; my positions are elsewhere.
I accidentally made a private post yesterday
Right now, it’s still too early to talk about any meaningful reversal. We’re not in a recovery phase - we’re in phase two of the market cycle, and this phase tends to last longer than most expect. The structure is forming exactly as it should: slowly, unevenly, with pockets of stress that haven’t fully played out yet.
Bitcoin is dropping, but for me there’s nothing surprising in this move.
If you’ve been following my posts for a while, you know this scenario was not only possible
— it was highly probable. We’ve already reached the first target zones I highlighted earlier, and the market is now moving toward the deeper structural points that complete this segment of the cycle.
There are still shocks ahead, and the system hasn’t finished recalibrating.
This is not a trend market — this is a regime market. And regime markets demand patience, discipline, and the ability to read liquidity, not headlines.
2026: A Year of Market Regimes
2026 feels like a year defined by regimes, not direction.
This is a market that punishes overconfidence and rewards discipline: managing leverage, staying patient, and understanding liquidity matter more than any narrative.
Liquidity today behaves like a system of pipes. Sometimes the taps look wide open, yet the internal pressure shifts so fast that trends break long before the crowd can explain the move with headlines.
In these phases, Bitcoin behaves not like a “legend”, but like the most liquid proxy for risk:
under stress, it’s the first asset sold because reducing exposure through BTC is the easiest and fastest way.
This leads to a key insight:
Even during superficially “risk-on” news cycles, BTC can underperform when several forces align:
- rising demand for USD (dollar squeeze)
- carry trades unwinding
- capital rotating into leading sectors (metals, indices)
- portfolios cutting risk and closing leverage
Three Structural Scenarios for 2026
I avoid guessing levels; instead, I work with structural patterns. For 2026, I see three core possibilities:
1) Capitulation → Base Formation
A sharp washout, volatility climax, then a broad range and gradual base building.
2) Rallies Within a Larger Downtrend
Strong upside moves that turn into distribution.
The market gives hope — and takes it back on retests.
3) Macro Shock
An event in FX, rates, or liquidity triggers fast deleveraging.
Moves overshoot, correlations spike, and a violent mean reversion follows.
This is why my approach now is very simple:
fewer trades, higher quality.
I’m deliberately reducing the number of positions and focusing only on moments where structure provides a clear edge — because in years like this, capital is preserved not by activity, but by the right pauses.
About the Academy
In parallel, I’m updating my Academy in real time: weekly materials, market structure breakdowns, liquidity updates, USD dynamics, and risk indicators.
The access is open and free — anyone can stay aligned with the current regime without noise.
Current Market Structure
Looking at today’s structure, the market is forming precisely the segment I expected.
The key volume level ahead remains intact, and with high probability, price will break through it. Only after that expansion may we see the formation of the first real leg of the next cycle.
The conservative zones I mentioned earlier remain valid. More negative scenarios exist, yes — but the underlying logic does not change:
Accumulate gradually — on fear, liquidations, and liquidity distortions.
The main zone is very close, and that is where, in my view, the most interesting continuation setup will appear.
Best regards EXCAVO
