Does the cycle just repeat?
It's only February 2020 and the price of bitcoin at the moment is 58000 it's been an incredible run for bitcoin, you would think we would be reaching the top but there is no sign that bitcoin is topping out just yet.
Let's take a look at a potential cycle top, investing and buying bitcoin is the easiest part of the trade now comes...
The CME gap at 24000 would put it at 39% from all time high , that's in line with historical pull backs from the last bull run.
Will the CME gap close yet again?
In the short term, any price impact caused by a hefty purchase in the futures market will be quickly arbitraged away in the spot market, causing prices to converge. But this could just as well happen...
Every bitcoin bullrun so far has had pullbacks ,will history repeat itself, at this point we cant deny the fact the stock to flow model is still intact .
So everything is setting up what looks to be the first pullback of this rally , as you can see we are coming up to very strong Fibonacci log band ,...
Looking at the 12month candles we can see a pattern emerge , if we take a measurement from the wick of the of the previous all time high candle in 2013 down to the close of candle of 2016 you get a candle that closed 17% from the previous halving top , if history repeats itself then the yearly candle would close just above 0.236 fib at around 16800.
Maybe its to early to call a direction of bitcoin since its only hit yearly high just under a week ago so there is no clear pattern formation just yet but lets keep in mind that
Fear and Greed Index showing a 90 one of the highest recorded numbers .
We also hit the top of a log growth band and last time that...
The log growth chart has been on cue lately calling the last pump to 12500 , the next layer on the log chart would be 14400.
With the Fear and Greed Index being so high at 75 there is much higher chance that Yellow plays out for this year but expect and unexpected with bitcoin once in a bubble things move very fast , lets...
The 2D candle of the Historical Volatility Percentile has been a very good indicator at seeing big multi thousand dollar moves and showing you a time frame of when you can potentially expect it.
This theory is pretty straight forward ,
When the Volatility drops under the ratio of under 15 on average after 62 days we can see plus 50% moves there is also...
Mid/Late August to Early/Mid September for 14k
Mid/late September to Early December for 18k also first pullback of the new bull cycle.
Sometime January back to 2 year trend line created
Mid April the restart of the bull run after correction
Is it possible? , can the mind even fathom such a parabolic move?
Last week of November 2021 bitcoin could hit 33500 dollars on the way up pulling back 3 times to the 21 weekly moving average which is shown in red on the graph.
I won't predict anything historic. But nothing is impossible.
Everything lines up for a 11300-11500 range correction back down to the trendline before the halving event , now we all know we are trading in the wild west, so i expect a scam wick up to 11750 before pulling back to the range mentioned above then breaking down to the trendline at about 8500 over next 40-50days.
Expected start of pullback would be at the end of...