The thesis I will present today will go over the idea that Bitcoin will repeat its first cycle over a longer length of time. There are a lot of theories on where Bitcoin is going next, and it's been interesting seeing so many different perspectives.
Every 4 years, Bitcoin follows through with its cycle, and we are now in the 4th cycle. So, what if it repeats the first cycle?
The first cycle is a interesting one , we had two tops, one big move followed by a 75% correction and after 231days we put in a higher high.
Last cycle nearly every single logarithmic model I was using broke expect the one you see in the main chart above, I know every model breaks eventually but until then we will base are projections around it.
The fact is there is not much room left from here , if Bitcoin repeats the same move and time then we looking at July at around 113k for a major 2024 top , for over 500 days now Bitcoin has been moving 100% every 120-140 days with the last move only taking 50days.
What is interesting is it took 1200days from Pi cycle cross to cross , if it repeats the next cross is in July and a my projected cross which will most likely not be very accurate since moving averages will move a lot depending on price but late October 2024 would be the cross.
Monthly RSI is the lowest its ever been in history coming back into all time high.
2Week RSI putting in nearly perfect lower highs since the start.
Bitcoin all time high consolidation pattern looking like it did last cycle in 2020 when it was back at 20k.
Looking over at my time cycles , it takes 1400days from cycle top to top this would put a cycle high in September 2025 from November 2021. It also lines up with my time fib in September 2025.
Elliott wave indicator is flashing a wave 5 both of NAS100 and Bitcoin , as you can see by going back in time its not 100% perfect and calling the top but pretty close most of the time , as you can see last cycle it was off by 3 weekly candles.
We are making lower highs on the Weekly and higher highs in price so bearish divergence could be forming here.
stochastic RSI pointing down and MACD histogram printing two lighter colours but as you can see stochastic last bullrun we were going down the entire time Bitcoin was going up.
Conclusion
There are some warning signs but there weak compared to the bullish signs , candle structure is still making lower highs from 4hour upwards and we forming same pattern as we did last cycle before massive run.
This is how I think it plays out , last phase of the first run is coming until end of July then massive correction into end of year and continuation of the bull run till cycle top September 2025.
Every 4 years, Bitcoin follows through with its cycle, and we are now in the 4th cycle. So, what if it repeats the first cycle?
Last cycle nearly every single logarithmic model I was using broke expect the one you see in the main chart above, I know every model breaks eventually but until then we will base are projections around it.
Conclusion
There are some warning signs but there weak compared to the bullish signs , candle structure is still making lower highs from 4hour upwards and we forming same pattern as we did last cycle before massive run.
This is how I think it plays out , last phase of the first run is coming until end of July then massive correction into end of year and continuation of the bull run till cycle top September 2025.
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