Bitcoin (BTC) Hits New Highs, Analyzing Future ScenariosBINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high today, once again encountering resistance at a long-term slant, extending from the 2017 and April 2021 highs. Since then, a correction of approximately 2% has occurred, forming a long upper shadow on the daily chart. Notably, this trend is displaying a fractal pattern similar to the July 14th peak. If today's daily chart closes with a long upper shadow, it could lead to a short-term sideways or correction phase. Conversely, if it closes with a negative candlestick, this section could be interpreted as a trend reversal signal following the formation of a high.
8-year long-term oblique angle
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Range-Bound Rocket: BTC’s Coiled Spring Between S1 and R3-ATHRange Bound Rocket: BTC Loaded and Coiled for $120k Retest
Description:
BTC is now trading around $114,260, still inside the range I’ve flagged earlier. We reloaded at our previously posted support zones between $110k and $111k. That gives us a strong base.
I’m watching for acceptance above the $113k to $114k red box, which overlaps with the neckline of a potential reverse Head & Shoulders on the 4‑hour chart. It hasn’t triggered yet but we are in validation mode. (expecting a retest to 113k and then a break up) If we get a breakout with volume expansion and wide‑bodied candles, I’ll treat that as a valid activation. Target remains $119k and above.
This table shows how likely BTC is to stay above certain price levels over the next two weeks based on current volatility. These are not predictions, they represent statistically expected ranges based on price behavior.
2WK/Probability, Price Level, Meaning
90%, ~$96,700 BTC is very likely to stay above this level
75%, ~$103,200 BTC has a strong chance of staying above here
50%, ~$111,000 This is the midpoint, BTC has equal chance of being above or below
25%, ~$119,400 BTC has a one in four chance of closing higher than this
10%, ~$127,400 Only a small percentage of outcomes put BTC above this level
Key takeaways:
BTC is currently trading around $114,260, sitting just above our red resistance zone at $113,000 to $114,000.
Our first upside target, $118,000, lines up with the top 25 to 30 percent range of expected outcomes. This is reachable if the broader market stays supportive.
$120,000 sits closer to the top 20 percent threshold. BTC would need strong momentum and favorable macro data to push there in the next two weeks.
Downside probabilities
While the structure looks bullish, we should still consider these potential retracement levels:
Around 46 percent chance BTC dips below $110,000
Approximately 43 percent chance it drops under $109,000
Roughly 30 percent chance BTC trades below $105,000
These downside paths are consistent with our S2 and S3 support zones, which were successfully defended during the last major pullback.
What I'm doing and suggest :
Breakout confirmation:
I’m looking to add above $113k to $114k only if volume expands and candles show conviction, meaning minimal wicks and strong closes. Weak volume or upper wicks mean the breakout could fail. Main stop is back inside the range. Scalpers can use a tighter invalidation below $112.2k.
Reload zone:
A move into $110k to $109k is a statistically common retest. I’ll look for buyer defense and fading downside pressure to reload.
Volatility risk:
I'm already positioned long from our previously posted support zones around $110k to $111k, so I’m not actively adding or hedging right now. Into CPI and the Fed, I’m staying hands-off unless we get a clear breakout or strong market signal.
For those not in position:
Avoid chasing breakouts before the event
Look for confirmation or reaction post-data
If we get a volatility spike, retests of $110k to $109k are still statistically common and may offer a better entry
The goal is to avoid being overexposed heading into binary catalysts. I’m holding my current spot exposure and letting the trade breathe.
If no breakout forms:
I expect BTC to remain in a range between $111k and $118k. Support zones from prior posts maintained a bullish bias. If BTC consolidates below $114k but keeps forming higher lows, I’ll consider that ongoing accumulation.
Catalysts to monitor:
Nasdaq or NQ breakdown
• Tech strength: Nvidia up ~30% YTD on strong Blackwell Ultra demand, ADI and MX showing strength despite macro headwinds.
Jobless claims rising again
• U.S. jobless claims are rising to 237K, signaling labor market cooling. Continuing claims are easing but job additions in August were weak at just 22K. Recent wide downward revisions (~911K fewer jobs year-to-date) reinforce rate‑cut bets.
Geopolitical risk
• Geopolitical tensions remain tail‑risks.
Fed rate tone and CPI reaction
• Fed tone and CPI outputs are increasingly important as data is tilting soft and markets are pricing in easier policy.
• The USD’s trajectory matters. Further weakness helps BTC and tech space gain more cushion.
Tech remains a key driver. AI and semis continue to lead Nasdaq strength, and BTC still tracks equity moves closely. A soft dollar also reduces market drag and supports upside potential.
BTC 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 51☃️ Welcome to the cryptos winter , I hope you’ve started your day well.
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 1-Hour timeframe .
👀 On the 1-hour timeframe for Bitcoin, we can see that after this recent bullish leg, price has now reached its resistance at $120,827. If this resistance breaks — a zone packed with short orders — Bitcoin could start an extremely sharp and powerful upward leg, essentially triggering a short squeeze. At the moment, Bitcoin is entering a corrective phase; with the start of this correction, price could head down toward its Fibonacci retracement supports, bounce from one of those levels, and then form a new trading structure.
🧮 Looking at the RSI oscillator, price has been ranging around the 70 zone and briefly entered overbuy. It is now moving toward the 50 area, its oscillation mean. A break below 50 could deepen the correction, but if support holds, RSI could again head toward the resistance zone near 70 and re-test the overbought boundary.
🎮 The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the breakout at $114,562 to $120,827 highlights several strong support areas. The most important zones for Bitcoin are the 0.236 and 0.382 retracement levels. Support here, followed by a fresh structure, could set up strong trading opportunities.
🕯 The size and volume of buy candles have been exceptionally strong and increasing — something rarely seen in Bitcoin with such a one-sided move to the upside. Now, during this corrective phase, even as selling pressure appears, roughly 70% of that sell volume is being absorbed by buyers. What we must watch closely is how buyers decide to allocate capital from here. If the key Fibonacci levels are lost, we respect the market’s decision and only then consider new trades.
🧠 For a Bitcoin position If you don’t have an open position, I recommend waiting for a new structure to form at critical Fibonacci levels, and only enter after a breakout of that structure.
If you already hold a position, consider partial profit-taking, since USDT dominance has also reached an important support zone.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
BTC - Weekly Breakout!📈 BTC has already broken out of its correction phase and is holding strong above $118k.
As long as $118k holds, the next targets sit between $126k–$140k.
Only a drop below $114k would delay the bullish outlook.
Trend remains strongly bullish after the breakout.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Manage risk properly.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr.
Bitcoin Faces $120K Resistance – Bull Trap or Breakout?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) continued its uptrend of the last 2-3 days as I expected in my previous idea . Today, the announcement of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change index worked like a catalyst for Bitcoin .
Bitcoin is currently surrounded by Resistance zones and a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) , and is near the important price of $118,400(Volumetric importance) and the $120,000(Round Number) .
From the perspective of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin could be in corrective waves and that the increase of the last few days could only serve as a Bull Trap .
I expect Bitcoin to decline at least to the Support lines .
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $113,590-$111,900
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $115,823-$115,087
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $120,000-$118,000
Note: If Bitcoin falls below the Support zone($114,820-$113,180), we should expect further declines.
CME Gap: $111,355-$109,915
Stop Loss(SL): $120,103
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BTC Game Plan – (LDMD Model)BTC Game Plan – (LDMD Model)
📊 Market Sentiment
FED has resumed its rate-cutting cycle, starting with a 0.25% cut in September, with two more expected. Institutional liquidity inflows have accelerated as the U.S. officially adopts crypto as part of its reserves. Despite elevated inflation, a weakening labor market is forcing the FED to ease, pushing more capital into risk-on assets.
📈 Technical Analysis
BTC is trending strongly bullish on the HTF, so long setups remain the priority. Recently, price broke the bearish trendline that had capped price action since August 13, signaling a shift in momentum. That breakout created a Daily Demand zone, which was tapped once before price moved higher — confirming liquidity inside the zone.
Currently, BTC ran the daily swing low (the first tap of that demand), revisited the Daily Demand, and repriced into the 0.75 Fibonacci max discount level. This strong confluence suggests accumulation and potential continuation higher.
📘 Model to be used – LDMD (Liquidity Run inside Daily Demand w/ Max Discount Zone)
In this model, I start by confirming the HTF trend to set directional bias. Then, I identify key Demand/Supply zones that carry significant liquidity. A sweep of HTF swing lows adds confluence by trapping liquidity. Finally, I align this with the 0.75 max discount retracement zone for a high-probability entry point.
📌 Game Plan
1-Wait for a daily close above the bearish trendline.
2-Enter long on confirmation.
🎯 Setup Trigger
Daily close above the bearish trendline.
📋 Trade Management
Stoploss: 108,500$
Targets:
TP1: 113,900$
TP2: 117,900$
After TP1, move SL to breakeven to secure profits.
💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! More setups and insights coming soon — stay connected!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always DYOR before making any financial decisions.
Bitcoin Resistance Zone Battle – ATH or Fakeout?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has shown strong momentum over the past 5 days , liquidating many traders in both Long and Short positions .
Bitcoin has now entered the Resistance zone($114,820-$113,170) and is moving near the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($115,000-$114,272) and Resistance lines .
From an Elliott Wave Theory perspective, given Bitcoin’s strong bullish momentum over the past 24 hours, it appears to be completing Wave 3. This Wave 3 seems to be of the extended type.
I expect Bitcoin , after a correction , to make another attempt toward the Resistance zone($114,820-$113,170) and potentially test the Resistance lines .
Do you think this bullish move could lead to a new all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin?
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($113,037-$112,650) + Near Monthly Pivot Point($113,356): An area where Bitcoin could start rising again (if there is a correction, of course).
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $111,100-$110,500
CME Gap: $111,355-$109,915
Note: Also, Bitcoin approaching the 61.8% golden Fibonacci level could lead to a Bitcoin correction.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN SIGNAL: HUGE MOVE IN DIRECTION NOBODY EXPECTED INCOMING!Yello Paradisers! Let me know your thoughts in the comment section below!
And Paradisers! Keep in mind to trade only with a proper professional trading strategy. Wait for confirmations. Play with tactics. This is the only way you can be long-term profitable.
Remember, don’t trade without confirmations. Wait for them before creating a trade. Be disciplined, patient, and emotionally controlled. Only trade the highest probability setups with the greatest risk to reward ratio. This will ensure that you become a long-term profitable professional trader.
Don't be a gambler. Don't try to get rich quick. Make sure that your trading is professionally based on proper strategies and trade tactics.
BTC (Y26.P3.E1). Looking for a Grantley HarmonicHi traders,
We are looking for more highs and in the short term, the daily level will likely be resistance and hence a shorting scalp opportunity is likely there. On the bigger picture, a Gantley harmonic could be the target as it will take out much of the liquidity. I was hoping for an ATH around 127k or more for the cup and handle target but we might not get that any time soon. I have tweeted many times that September will be bearish and October and November bullish. I don’t envision this time the Harmonic is a topping structure, but we can’t rule it out.
All the best,
S.SAri.
SUI Swing Long Opportunity - HDDZ Model SUI Swing Long Opportunity – HTF Demand w/ Discount Zone (HDDZ Model)
📊 Market Sentiment
FED has resumed its rate-cutting cycle, starting with a 0.25% cut in September, with two more expected. Institutional liquidity inflows have accelerated as the U.S. officially adopts crypto as part of its reserves. Despite elevated inflation, a weakening labor market is forcing the FED to ease, pushing more capital into risk-on assets.
📈 Technical Analysis
SUI is bullish on HTF, so only long setups are considered. Price recently swept the weekly swing liquidity and closed above, then broke market structure on LTF — confirming bullishness and creating a valid Daily Demand zone. Price has already tested this zone once and found rejection, validating its significance.
Currently, price is rejecting from the bearish LTF trendline above, which remains a key resistance. A retest of the confluence at 3.25$ (Daily Demand + Discount Zone) offers a strong setup for continuation higher.
📘 Model to be used – HDDZ (HTF Demand w/ Discount Zone)
In this model, I first confirm HTF bias. Then, I look for creation of HTF Demand zones. Finally, I use Fibonacci retracement to locate the discount zone. When both the demand zone and discount zone align, it creates a strong confluence for trade entries.
📌 Game Plan
1-Wait for price to revisit 3.25$ confluence zone.
2-Carry trade toward bearish LTF trendline, securing profits early if price rejects.
🎯 Setup Trigger
Entry confirmation once price hits 3.25$.
📋 Trade Management
Stoploss: 2.97$
Targets:
TP1: 3.61$
TP2: 3.97$
After TP1, move SL to breakeven to secure the position.
💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! More setups and insights coming soon — stay connected!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always DYOR before making any financial decisions.
XRP Swing Long Opportunity - LRKZ MODELXRP Swing Long Opportunity
📊 Market Sentiment
FED has resumed its rate-cutting cycle, starting with a 0.25% cut in September, with two more 0.25% cuts expected in the coming months. Additionally, institutional liquidity inflows have accelerated as the U.S. officially adopts crypto as part of its reserves. While inflation remains elevated, the weakening labor market is forcing the FED to ease, driving more capital into risk-on assets.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price made a new all-time high and is currently retracing before pushing higher again.
Price ran the weekly swing liquidity at $2.70 and closed above with a wick, confirming manipulation before expansion.
Price also retested the broken HTF Demand zone at $2.69, which was strong resistance previously and now acts as strong support.
These confluences strongly suggest rejection and continuation higher.
📘 Model to be used – HTF Liquidity Run into HTF Key Zone (LRKZ Model)
In this model, I first define the HTF trend. Then, I look for the most significant liquidity that lies opposite to the HTF trend (swing highs or lows). These zones often contain enough liquidity to trigger reversals or strong bounces. When price sweeps this liquidity and retests an HTF Key Zone (where strong limit orders sit), it creates a high-probability setup. Confirmation on LTF then provides the entry trigger.
📌 Game Plan
Price already closed above the $2.70 level, confirming entry. Looking for continuation higher with structured targets.
🎯 Setup Trigger
Setup is active long position valid after the daily close above $2.70.
📋 Trade Management
Stoploss: Daily close below $2.70 or hard stop at $2.50.
Targets:
TP1: $3.18
TP2: $3.37
TP3: $3.66 (ATH)
After TP1 is secured, I will move stoploss to breakeven and scale profits as price moves toward higher targets.
💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! More setups and market insights coming soon — stay connected!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always DYOR before making any financial decisions.
Bitcoin in Q4 As "Uptober" begins the layout for Bitcoin is as follows:
- Downtrend on the daily officially since 18th September but really it began after the SFP of ATH on August 14th.
- The origin of the rally to ATH has served as support twice since at $108,000
- Diagonal trendline resistance being tested as Q4 begins, seasonality shows October is very strong for returns, 21.89% average since 2019.
- Compression of the range inevitably leads to a breakout in either direction.
Bullish scenario is reclaim of $117,500 to push towards ATH.
Bearish scenario is a loss of $108,000
$BTC – Flip Zones Driving 4H StructureCRYPTOCAP:BTC flipped bullish after reclaiming the blue demand, then turned bearish at the red supply. We’re now pulling back from resistance, and the next clean setup likely forms on a retest of the blue zone.
🔑 Key zones
Support (blue) ~$111k area — former base of the last impulse.
Resistance (red) ~$114.5k–$115k — where sellers capped the rally.
🔎 Confluence
Prior bearish rejection at red + bullish reaction at blue.
Clear HH/HL structure only resumes if price holds blue and pushes back above red.
📊 Scenarios
Bullish 📈 Pull back into $111k (blue), print higher-low / bullish candle, then continuation toward $115k → $117k.
Bearish 📉 Lose the blue zone with a strong 4H close → open room for a deeper dip before buyers try again.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr.
Impulse Wave 5 Near Completion: Short Setup Ahead?The 5th wave of the current impulse structure is close to completion. Price action is showing exhaustion and the drop in volume is confirming that momentum is fading. At this stage, risk for longs is increasing and the probability of a corrective phase (A-B-C) is high.
Traders should keep an eye on bearish confirmation signals such as trendline breaks, bearish engulfing bars, or supply zone failures. A short setup could develop soon if price rejects with conviction.
Patience is key — Wave 5 can stretch, but once it’s done, downside pressure usually accelerates quickly. Manage risk carefully and adjust sizing according to your strategy.
BTC to go Parabolic to $333K, ~100 oz Gold by EOY 2025 Gold and Bitcoin are both valuable hard assets and from my observation, the Bitcoin chart to Gold is much better predictable than it's price to USD. The reason might be because Gold holds it's purchasing power over time through the history, and in fact it is the base line for the purchasing power, but Dollar depends on how much it gets printed and cannot be reliably predicted. That's why when you look at BTC/Gold chart, most of the times you see exact double tops or exact double bottoms.
I was predicting BTC would get to $100K USD when it hits it's previous top to Gold (37 oz) and so I was predicting about 8 month before it happens that BTC will be $100K when Gold is 2650 and it happened. I was surprised myself that it held true.
Looking into Gold price history, we can reliably say that Gold will not stop here and will march to $8000 within couple of years. However I think it has hit it's top for the year, or max $4000 will be the 2025 top. Then when Gold pulls back, BTC will get the chance to go parabolic, and has it's last rise of this bull market, and I expect it should take BTC to near 100 oz Gold. So if we want to put all together, Gold = 3350 where it pulls back and BTC= 100 oz = $335,000. I know the Bitcoin whales are playful sometimes, so we might get into $333,333 per BTC.
I remember in Nov 2013 everyone was talking about bitcoin flipping gold (1 BTC getting to 1 oz Gold) and well, it didn't happen at that time and it had to come back in 2017, but it got close enough. We might have the same kind of situation here so starting to drop anywhere from $270k to $330k might be what we get.
I don't publish many analysis's on TV, but I thought I'd put this here, it might get me famous ;)
MSTR Wave II bottom?NASDAQ:MSTR is finally catching a bid from the triple support zone of the Fibonacci golden pocket, S1 pivot and High Volume Node.
It must overcome the daily 200EMA to add confidence to a reversal and wave II bottom being in.
Daily RSI has printed bullish divergence from oversold. Vanguard disclosed massive MSTR holdings ad the sentiment is awful online adding confluence to a bottom soon.
Wave III target is the R5 daily pivot $544, losing the support zone has a downside target of $232
Safe trading