Bitcoin Is Not Overextended — This Is a Structured Trend Hello everyone,
On the H1 timeframe, Bitcoin remains in a clean, well-respected bullish trend, and the current price action continues to validate trend continuation rather than exhaustion.
Market Structure Breakdown
The chart shows a clear ascending structure, defined by:
Higher highs and higher lows
Price consistently respecting the ascending trendline
Each pullback forming a rounded corrective base, followed by impulsive expansion
Every highlighted orange circle marks a successful reaction at trend resistance, which was later converted into support. This is a textbook example of break → accept → continue, not rejection.
Key Technical Observations
The impulsive leg from ~91,000 to above 92,800 was followed by tight consolidation, not aggressive selling.
Current candles are holding above the prior breakout level (~92,300), confirming acceptance, not a fake move.
Pullbacks remain shallow and overlapping, indicating buyers are in control and sellers lack follow-through.
Scenario Logic
The projected path is structurally sound:
Hold above 92,300 → continuation remains valid
Minor consolidation / flagging → fuel for expansion
Upside continuation toward 93,900, then 94,400+
Importantly, there is no distribution signature:
No sharp rejection from highs
No aggressive bearish displacement
No loss of trendline structure
Invalidation Conditions
This bullish continuation thesis only weakens if:
Price loses 92,300 with acceptance
Followed by a breakdown below 91,800, which would indicate a deeper corrective phase
Until then, any pullback is structural, not directional.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is not “too high” — it is doing exactly what a strong trend should do:
Break levels
Pause briefly
Continue higher
As long as price remains above the reclaimed supports and respects the rising structure, the path of least resistance remains upward.
Trade safe and stay disciplined.
Btc-e
$BTC Relief Rally Looks Promising₿itcoin showing some real promise here, but got rejected on the Daily Close for the key support zone that it needs to reclaim at the .618 fib ~$94,2k
It did close above the 50DEMA and we have a bullish cross with the 9DEMA on the horizon which should drop us into the new support zone.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC really needs some closes above $97k to make this rally a reality tho.
The next target would be the 50WMA ~$101,5 which could be the critical rejection point where most would be offloading.
The bearish Weekly Close on TVC:GOLD helps confirm this rally.
CELO at a Key Inflection Point | Price OutlookELO has been consolidating since mid-December after a steep 62% decline from November’s highs.
📅 Thursday’s upcoming event could be the catalyst to break this range.
🔼 Bullish Scenario:
Breakout above $0.1318 could target resistance near $0.1401, within December 15’s bearish weekly void.
Further upside may stall at $0.1438–$0.1463, overlapping multiple voids and October’s swing low.
🔽 Bearish Scenario:
First support sits at $0.1227 (Jan 3 daily void), with confluence from:
$0.1215 (Dec 30 rejection),
$0.1197 (Dec 22 weekly rejection), and
$0.1089 (Jan 1 swing low).
These are key zones where accumulation and stop defense may be active.
1W WIF Chart: Potential bottom on WIF? I’m watching WIF cautiously on the weekly, but it’s now firmly on my radar for a potential bottoming process, along with other SOL ecosystem meme coins.
After a prolonged and aggressive downtrend from the highs, downside momentum has slowed materially. Price is no longer cascading lower and is instead compressing near the lows, which is often how these assets begin transitioning from distribution into early accumulation. This isn’t a reversal yet, but it is a change in behavior.
Structurally, WIF is spending time building value near the bottom of its range rather than bouncing and failing immediately. Volatility has contracted significantly compared to prior selloffs, and each push lower is attracting quicker responses from buyers, even if they’re still cautious.
I’m not assuming this is a bottom, but this is the zone where bottoms typically form if they’re going to form at all. The key for me will be time and confirmation: higher lows, reduced sell pressure, and eventually a reclaim of prior weekly resistance. Until then, patience is critical.
This same dynamic is starting to show up across several SOL meme names, which makes it worth monitoring as a group rather than in isolation. For now, this remains a watch-and-wait situation, with risk management front and center and no need to force exposure before the structure proves itself.
Bitcoin Building Strength Above Rising Support LineBitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently trading in a well-structured bullish market environment on the 1H timeframe, clearly respecting higher highs and higher lows — a classic sign of sustained bullish momentum. After consolidating near previous ranges, price successfully defended the key support zone, which acted as a strong demand area and launched the next impulsive leg to the upside.
The market has now reclaimed and respected the last low, confirming that buyers remain in control and that bearish attempts are being absorbed. The impulsive bullish move followed by shallow pullbacks suggests institutional accumulation, rather than distribution. This behavior often precedes continuation toward higher liquidity pools.
At present, price is approaching a major resistance zone, where buy-side liquidity is resting above the equal highs. This zone acts as a natural magnet for price, especially in trending conditions like the current one. As long as BTC holds above the marked support zone and last higher low, the bullish bias remains valid and continuation toward higher levels is favored.
Any short-term retracement into the support or demand area can be considered a healthy pullback within the trend, offering potential continuation opportunities for buyers. A decisive breakdown below the last low would be the first sign of weakness and could delay the bullish scenario.
Bitcoin: Renewed optimism for 2026?The year 2025 was pretty tough for the crypto market, with significant corrections in the value of coins, however, it seems that the year 2026 started with renewed optimism. During the first trading day in this year, BTC moved from the $88K levels and tested the $90K currently strong resistance line. The question that currently remains is when the BTC will have strength to finally test the next resistance and strong psychological level at $100K?
The RSI finally managed to move above the 50 level, indicating that the market is slowly moving toward the overbought market side. At the same time, the MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, indicating that there will be no cross in the near term period.
During the previous week the majority of market participants were on New Year’s holidays, in which sense, liquidity was not at higher levels on financial markets. Monday will be the day of the actual first trading week in this year, in which sense, it could be expected some increased volatility. If Friday's move was only a small reflection of the current market sentiment, then we can expect a final break of the $90K resistance level, where the next target for BTC will be the $95K up to $100K range. In case that geopolitics and macro data affect the market sentiment, in this case BTC will again shortly pull back toward the $88K. In any case, what the first trading day showed is that the liquidity is there and just waits for the right moment to return back to crypto.
Can Bitcoin Hold This Level?Hello Traders,
On the H1 timeframe, Bitcoin is currently trading back into a clearly defined resistance zone after recovering from the prior sell-off. The recent price action shows a series of higher lows, indicating short-term bullish pressure rebuilding as price rotates upward toward supply.
This resistance zone is a key decision area. Historically, this level has acted as a distribution zone, and price reaction here will determine whether the move develops into a sustained continuation or another corrective rotation.
If price manages to break above the resistance and hold with acceptance, the structure opens the path toward higher targets, as marked on the chart. In this scenario, continuation would likely unfold in stages, with upside extensions toward Target 1, then Target 2, and potentially Target 3, assuming structure remains intact.
However, failure to accept above resistance would likely trigger a pullback. A rejection from this zone could rotate price back toward the mid-range support levels. As long as price holds above the broader support zone, such a move would still be considered a corrective pullback within a developing recovery, not a full bearish reversal.
The bullish continuation scenario is invalidated if price decisively breaks below the marked support zone and shows acceptance below it. That would signal a structural failure and reopen the downside.
At this point, Bitcoin is not at a high-conviction entry area but at a decision zone. Patience and confirmation are required. Let the market show whether it accepts above resistance or rotates back toward support before committing to directional bias.
Share your view below.
ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector. 3394.17 BPC 3.2© Bolzen | The Architect | BPC Framework
Bolzen Market Institute
🏷 ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector.
TradingView Publication Date: 05.01.2026
🏷 3394.17 — price not yet reached at time of publication.
🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant — Strength Index: 3.2
Quantum structure of obligations and capital flow in price formation via energy blocks.
🏷 Vertical chart — Energy Grid Dashboard.
🏷 Static Stream 1: price published in energy-block production sequence.
🏷 The price energy block is already ordered—not by time, but by execution priority. Crucially: block priority dynamically reconfigures in response to hidden energetic impulses, whereas price execution order records their market manifestation. Every price in the dynamic stream is tied to proprietary energy-production metrics inaccessible to the general public. Those who perceive structure before its manifestation do not follow price—they anticipate it.
EΞ2Φ8Ψ45Θ·ζ⁻¹·106Λ732·Ω²
📎 Screenshot:
🏷 When trading from levels, use liquidity zones from BPC 10 and above.
🏷 Bolzen Liquidity Map — ETH (numerical equivalent):
🏷 I. Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations.
— The Architect
BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector. 3341.58 BPC 4© Bolzen | The Architect | BPC Framework
Bolzen Market Institute
🏷 ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector.
TradingView Publication Date: 05.01.2026
🏷 3341.58 — price not yet reached at time of publication.
🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant — Strength Index: 4
Quantum structure of obligations and capital flow in price formation via energy blocks.
🏷 Vertical chart — Energy Grid Dashboard.
🏷 Static Stream 1: price published in energy-block production sequence.
🏷 The price energy block is already ordered—not by time, but by execution priority. Crucially: block priority dynamically reconfigures in response to hidden energetic impulses, whereas price execution order records their market manifestation. Every price in the dynamic stream is tied to proprietary energy-production metrics inaccessible to the general public. Those who perceive structure before its manifestation do not follow price—they anticipate it.
EΞ2Φ8Ψ45Θ·ζ⁻¹·106Λ732·Ω²
📎 Screenshot:
🏷 When trading from levels, use liquidity zones from BPC 10 and above.
🏷 Bolzen Liquidity Map — ETH (numerical equivalent):
🏷 I. Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations.
— The Architect
BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector. 3196.84 BPC 2.9© Bolzen | The Architect | BPC Framework
Bolzen Market Institute
🏷 ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector.
TradingView Publication Date: 29.12.2025
🏷 3196.84 — price not yet reached at time of publication.
🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant — Strength Index: 2.9
Quantum structure of obligations and capital flow in price formation via energy blocks.
🏷 Vertical chart — Energy Grid Dashboard.
🏷 Static Stream 1: price published in energy-block production sequence.
🏷 The price energy block is already ordered—not by time, but by execution priority. Crucially: block priority dynamically reconfigures in response to hidden energetic impulses, whereas price execution order records their market manifestation. Every price in the dynamic stream is tied to proprietary energy-production metrics inaccessible to the general public. Those who perceive structure before its manifestation do not follow price—they anticipate it.
EΞ2Φ8Ψ45Θ·ζ⁻¹·106Λ732·Ω²
📎 Screenshot:
🏷 When trading from levels, use liquidity zones from BPC 10 and above.
🏷 Bolzen Liquidity Map — ETH (numerical equivalent):
🏷 I. Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations.
📎 Architect’s Note:
I thank TradingView moderation for their constructive collaboration and for enabling the display of analytical artifacts in their evolutionary state. Publishing maps in prefactum mode is not merely a technique—it is a method of future verification through structure. This is BPC quantum analytics—The Bolzen Price Covenant.
The persistent ETH and BTC Energy Grid Dashboard remains publicly accessible and is intended for international institutional review.
🏷 PC-compatible international interactive link:
— The Architect
BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
BTC CME Futures (Weekly) – Pullback Into Structural SupportWe have now closed our short position.
BTC has completed a corrective leg from the recent highs and is now reacting off major weekly trend support.
Key observations:
• Price has pulled back into the ascending weekly trendline that has held since the cycle low
• This zone also aligns with prior range value + horizontal support (~85k–90k)
• Momentum shows correction, not distribution – structure remains intact
Bias:
• As long as BTC holds above the weekly trendline, this looks like a high-timeframe higher-low rather than a trend change
• A sustained hold here opens the door for a continuation leg back toward 110k+, then ATH expansion
Invalidation:
• Weekly close decisively below trend support would shift bias to a deeper retracement toward the low-80s
Plan:
• Patience at HTF support
• Let price confirm before sizing aggressively
Trend intact until proven otherwise.
BTC 1W Update: Looking good here, but don't lose the bigger picBitcoin is clearly pumping on the weekly, and that’s constructive to see after the recent pullback. Momentum has picked up, and the bounce off the lows shows that buyers are still very much present in this market.
That said, it’s important not to get distracted by the green candles alone. Price is currently sitting near the middle of the larger higher-timeframe range, around the dotted line area. This is not a breakout zone, it’s the heart of the range where chop and back-and-forth price action are most common.
Structurally, Bitcoin is still consolidating between major resistance near the 108k area and major support down around 73k. Until price can decisively reclaim the upper range and build acceptance above it, this remains a choppy environment rather than a clean trend.
This is exactly why buying dips has worked well, while chasing strength in the middle of the range tends to be lower quality. Pumps inside ranges feel exciting, but they often fade back into value just as quickly.
So while the current move higher is a positive sign, the broader context hasn’t changed yet. We’re still in chop land, and patience plus disciplined dip buying continues to be the higher probability approach until the range resolves.
BTCUSDT – 4H Chart Update. BTCUSDT – 4H Chart Update
BTC is showing strength after holding the $84.6K–$85.8K demand zone multiple times (strong buy interest visible).
Price is now moving higher with short-term bullish momentum.
🔹 Support: 85.8K / 84.6K
🔹 Resistance: 93.5K–94K zone
🔹 Bias: Bullish above support, pullbacks are buy-on-dips
As long as BTC holds above the marked support, upside continuation remains likely.
Risk management is key ⚠️
BTC. New Year, New Confidence. Signal after 266 days!BTC, has left everyone in euphoria last 2025 when it hit another milestone -- hitting a new ATH at 126000. Like with any parabolic high HIGHS; we know what would come after, tame the public excitement and correct -- and a hefty one at that, BTC slashing 36% off its peak touching 80k levels again.
But its all part of the process, and normal cycles come and go. But sometimes, not without a collateral damage, unless you have timed the market with utmost precision.
As we enter a New Year, new reset of confidence comes into play.
Based on recent long term metrics, BTC is creating another higher baseline from the current levels. As per our diagram above, a new bull signal has resurfaced. The last bull signal was from 266 days ago so this re-appearance is very special.
Current price range is conveying some good seeding opportunity from this accumulation zone. I expect solidification of this ascending baseline as we move forward followed by a significant price growth from here on.
The Market hints of generosity as we entered a new season.
Spotted price: 87k.
Mid Target 150k.
TAYOR.
Trade safely.
BITCOIN - where to from here?
I haven’t been this excited in a long time. There are many fundamentals lining up, and with a new year starting, Bitcoin is sitting in a very interesting position.
We’ve seen a short-term rally over the past 48 hours, not just in Bitcoin but across many altcoins, which are finally showing strength. The question everyone is asking is simple: did we buy the bottom, do we hold or sell, or what happens next?
The truth is, certainty doesn’t exist in these markets. Crypto is a constant guessing game, and we’re always sitting ducks. That volatility is exactly why the opportunity exists, as long as you understand the fundamentals.
The first fundamental I want to highlight is session-based liquidity. Asian markets have been closed, and when Japan opens ahead of broader Asia and Hong Kong, those first 60–90 minutes often set the tone. Watching how Japan leads into China and Hong Kong, then transitions into London and finally New York, will be critical. Be prepared for a lot of volatility.
From a market structure perspective, there is still a lot of liquidity sitting below the current price, particularly around the weekly POC near $87,500. Because we’ve spent so long ranging and sweeping both highs and lows, it’s easy to fall into the mindset that price will always come back to clean every liquidity pocket. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a sweep down to the $85,900 area to hunt the stops sitting around $86,400 beneath the lows. Then once we push, it’s important to remember that if you sneak into the lows and snag a long, price actually does go up for longer than 24 hours. Remove the scar tissue from the past few months and enjoy the ride up. Just stay alert, but be mindful not to exit too early, because once it goes, it really effing goes.
Anyone who’s lived through a true bullish cycle knows there’s always a tipping point. Eventually, liquidity gets left behind, and those who stayed positioned from lower levels are rewarded aggressively.
So what happens next?
My base case is a final sweep lower to grab remaining untapped liquidity. This recent move feels more like an entrée than the main course. Across broader markets, commodities, metals, and traditional finance have all been ripping, while Bitcoin has been left behind.
I don’t believe that’s accidental. The price suppression has been intentional, driven by thin liquidity conditions. But the signs are now there. I believe the great rotation of liquidity back into Bitcoin is already underway.
I do expect Bitcoin to push higher and ultimately break above the $100k region, and I think that move will catch a lot of people off guard.
In the short term, I’m watching for a quick sweep of the lows around Monday or Tuesday, possibly even earlier. After that, I believe the next leg higher will be aggressive.
Because of that, it’s critical to have limit orders planned, risk clearly defined, and a strong understanding of where liquidity sits. I do not believe we’re heading back to the low $70k region yet. The prolonged chop and lack of liquidity over recent months strongly suggest a higher floor has already been established.
In short, I’m extremely excited to see how markets open on Monday. Whether the sweep comes during Asia, London, or the US session remains to be seen. But the key takeaway is this: liquidity is returning, and we’re starting to see continuation rather than violent, isolated spikes.
If you’re already in long positions, pay yourself. Protect your downside. Because when that remaining liquidity is taken, it can happen fast.
My plan is simple: look for the sweep, then position for expansion. I’ll be looking to add to longer-term positions in Bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum, and select altcoins once that process plays out.
The market feels close to shifting gears.
Regards, ENTRYLAB
Bitcoin: a view through the yearly and monthly timeframesHappy New Year, traders and investors!
I wish you profitable trades, confidence in your abilities, calmness, clarity, and steady progress throughout the year — and, of course, good luck.
The new year has begun, and it’s a good moment to look at the yearly and monthly charts to understand where it makes sense to consider assets from an investment perspective.
On both the yearly and monthly timeframes, the buyer initiative remains intact. The yearly initiative is wide, spanning 15,476–126,199. Key yearly levels are 70,837 (50% of the initiative) and 69,000 (the upper boundary of the previous initiative). Below, a buyer zone is formed with its upper boundary at 48,189.
The year 2025 closed on declining volume, indicating a lack of active selling pressure and preserving conditions for a potential renewal of buyer initiative.
On the monthly timeframe, the buyer initiative also remains valid (74,508–126,199). The current price is around 89,256, where a buyer reaction is possible. The next important level below is 74,508.
For long-term positions, it would be reasonable to wait for a price decline and interaction with the yearly levels 70,837–69,000, or even the buyer zone near 48,189. In these areas, it makes sense to look for buy patterns, with targets at 109,608 and a retest of 126,199.
Profitable trades!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
Quick Bitcoin analyseBitcoin is testing the $90.3k S/R level again, but this time we're seeing 4h candles closing above the EMA200. If this level holds, I expect a clean break toward $95k and $100k after (local high of HTF trading area). Once $90.3k is confirmed as support, everything will pump.
CRYPTOCAP:ETH 4h time frame:
ETH moved into a new trading area between ~$3050 and ~$3250 and is around the mid of the range atm...
No fomo... Wait for confirmations to scalp around the mid... But when it comes back to the lower range around ~$3050 (and bounce on EMA200 on the 4h), Major Highcaps will pump... Keep an eye on that level... ✍️
Yellow PathLooking for a fakeout rally up to ~100,000k before we start the next leg down. Yellow path is most likely at this point.
$87,000 is a big long-term support so it makes sense that we are getting a knee jerk reaction to buying around this support. I am in the camp that crypto is in a bear market, so I believe this will be a shorting opportunity.
BTCUSDT (W1)🔍 Market Structure
For many months, the uptrend has been in a channel – clear higher highs and higher lows.
A breakout from the uptrend channel → indicates a change in market structure (BOS) to weekly.
The current move is a correction after a downward impulse, not a new uptrend.
➡️ HTF Bias: BEARISH / Corrective
🧱 Key Levels
🟢 Resistance (now resistance)
98,000 – 100,000 → former support, currently flipping to resistance
109,000 → strong weekly supply / EQ of the previous range
~125,000 → upper band of the old channel (unrealistic without a change in structure)
🔴 Support
85,400 → current reaction zone (local demand)
74,300 → key weekly demand, a very important level
Below: ~68–70k (another HTF zone – not marked, but logical)
📉 Price Action
Strong, impulsive bearish candle + long lower wick → liquidations + panic sell
No strong upward momentum after the rebound → weak demand
Current move = bear flag / bear range
➡️ This does NOT look like the end of the correction.
📊 Volume
High volume on the decline → distribution
Declining volume on the bounce → no real buyers
➡️ Classic pattern: dump → weak bounce → continuation
📈 Indicators
Stochastic RSI (W1)
In the oversold zone, but:
No strong bullish cross + no price impulse
➡️ May grind low for many weeks
CHOP
Falling → market preparing for a bigger move
Direction still more down than up
🧠 Scenarios
🟥 Baseline scenario (most likely)
Rejection 98-100k
Return to 85k
Test 74k
Only then the decision is made: bounce vs. Deeper bear market
🟩 Alternative scenario (less likely)
Weekly close above 100k
Retest of 98k as support
Only then can we consider 109k
❗ Key takeaways
❌ This is not a good time to go long on HTF
❌ The current rebound is a pullback, not a reversal
✅ Shorts only on retests of resistance
✅ Spot DCA only makes sense at 74k ±
#MANTA [RR: 1/5] Price reversal and new growth BINANCE:MANTAUSDT
There is a 5-wave cycle with an elongated 3rd wave and a corrective (protracted) 4th wave.
At the moment, the asset has completed the movement of wave 5 and has shown signs of a reversal in the long direction at the 1.618 extension level.
If we look at W1, we see that the volume nodes (HVN) coincide with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This adds weight to the argument that the asset has just completed wave 5.
I am considering a move to HVN (0.12), which gives a risk/reward ratio of 1/5.
I do not rule out manipulative movements.
Bitcoin's next move in the medium term..Given the end of wave three in the microwaves of the main wave, I expect an upward movement until the Fibonacci range is marked, and then it corrects towards the $70,000 to $75,000 range, and after completing the regular flat pattern, we see the beginning of wave five..
The range of $108,000 to $110,000 could be a good place to exit..
ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector. 2699.22 BPC 3.1© Bolzen | The Architect | BPC Framework
Bolzen Market Institute
🏷 ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector.
TradingView Publication Date: 03.01.2026
🏷 2699.22 — price not yet reached at time of publication.
🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant — Strength Index: 3.1
Quantum structure of obligations and capital flow in price formation via energy blocks.
🏷 Vertical chart — Energy Grid Dashboard.
🏷 Static Stream 1: price published in energy-block production sequence.
🏷 The price energy block is already ordered—not by time, but by execution priority. Crucially: block priority dynamically reconfigures in response to hidden energetic impulses, whereas price execution order records their market manifestation. Every price in the dynamic stream is tied to proprietary energy-production metrics inaccessible to the general public. Those who perceive structure before its manifestation do not follow price—they anticipate it.
EΞ2Φ8Ψ45Θ·ζ⁻¹·106Λ732·Ω²
📎 Screenshot:
🏷 When trading from levels, use liquidity zones from BPC 10 and above.
🏷 Bolzen Liquidity Map — ETH (numerical equivalent):
🏷 I. Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations.
📎 Architect’s Note:
I thank TradingView moderation for their constructive collaboration and for enabling the display of analytical artifacts in their evolutionary state. Publishing maps in prefactum mode is not merely a technique—it is a method of future verification through structure. This is BPC quantum analytics—The Bolzen Price Covenant.
The persistent ETH and BTC Energy Grid Dashboard remains publicly accessible and is intended for international institutional review.
On the current bi-monthly ETH chart, distribution is unfolding from long-term capital that shaped the ascending arc of the 2022–2025 cycle and is now systematically booking profits, reducing its risk delta toward the 2,699.22 level.
Since May 2025, capital has been accumulating positions; following completion of this accumulation phase, distribution has commenced.
Who is distributing:
- Institutional, sovereign, and corporate treasuries that entered ETH during the aggressive expansion phase of DeFi and staking are now using the current price bounce as a tactical exit window—while price remains above local lows and sufficient liquidity persists for large-block execution.
- Hedge funds and desks of major CEXs, trading derivatives benchmarked against ETFs and crypto indices, are synchronously reducing beta-exposure relative to Bitcoin: BTC is retesting $90,000 amid heightened political turbulence, prompting professionals to recalibrate portfolio risk by offloading the more volatile ETH.
Why the 2,699.22 level?
- This zone represents the “average inflow price” of the last major upward impulse. At this level, large order books can encounter dense counter-demand and re-accumulate volume at a discount to the cycle peak—rather than chasing new highs.
- For institutions, it is an optimal point where the geopolitical risk premium and inflated expectations around the “2026 DeFi reboot” collapse: media narratives are currently amplifying a renaissance of DeFi on Ethereum and Solana, and “cold capital” is converting this sentiment into cash.
Distribution mechanics on heavy timeframes:
- The bi-monthly horizon enables large capital to trade phases, not candles: first, gradual distribution camouflaged by positive news on technological progress and staking; then, accelerated selling following each failed local high, forming a stepped downward slope toward the target price.
- At such timeframes, technical indicators are secondary. The market is read through candle body structure, wick length, and closing behavior relative to key capital levels—where volume flows invisibly to retail but aligns perfectly with institutional reporting cycles.
Geopolitical context for this scenario:
- The arrest of Nicolás Maduro and large-scale strikes against Venezuela have elevated the global risk premium into a distinct regime: Bitcoin briefly dipped and immediately rebounded. Yet for major players, this is not a signal for heroic longs, but a trigger for systematic risk repricing across all crypto assets.
- Concurrently, regulatory drift intensifies: Iran officially accepts cryptocurrency as payment for arms; the SEC shifts under full Republican control; and debates over ETF outflows and stablecoin solvency make the “sell now, re-enter lower” strategy highly attractive—aligning precisely with the plan to guide price toward 2,699.22.
Message to academic and corporate institutions:
- This ETH framework is not “indicator folklore,” but a method grounded in macro-capital structure: first, decode the geopolitical matrix and regulatory vector; next, layer ETF flows, derivatives positioning, and on-chain dynamics; only then is the target level derived.
- The position anchored at 2,699.22 exemplifies heavy-timeframe discipline: there is no noise from intraday volatility—only strategic risk management, where each bi-monthly bar serves as an institutional reporting period, and price itself becomes the language through which market titans communicate.
— The Architect
BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant






















