Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure — Sellers Still in Full ControlPrice is trending firmly below the descending trendline and the EMA50, confirming a sustained bearish market structure with lower highs and lower lows intact. Recent pullbacks are being sold aggressively, showing no meaningful sign of demand stepping in.
A minor bounce toward the 90,800–91,000 area is likely to act as a corrective retest of structure rather than a reversal, where sellers may re-enter positions.
As long as price remains below the trendline, downside continuation is favored, exposing key liquidity targets at 89,300, followed by 88,800–88,400. Only a strong reclaim and close above 91,300 would invalidate the bearish scenario and signal a shift in short-term momentum.
Btc-e
Will ETH Defend This Final Support???????????Ethereum has completed a full bullish expansion cycle and is now trading in a post-distribution corrective phase on the H1 timeframe. After a strong impulsive rally supported by a clean EMA trend, price topped into a well-defined resistance zone, where buying pressure failed to sustain continuation.
Since that peak, ETH has printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term bearish structure. The recent sell-off is impulsive rather than corrective, indicating that this is not just a shallow pullback but a deeper structural reset following distribution.
Price is now approaching a major support zone, which previously acted as a strong demand base during the prior bullish leg. This area also aligns with the flattening EMA curve, suggesting the market is reaching a key decision point.
Importantly, bearish momentum is starting to decelerate as price approaches support, increasing the probability of a technical reaction or corrective bounce, rather than immediate continuation lower.
Resistance:
3,280 – 3,320 (distribution / major supply zone)
Support:
3,060 – 3,100 (key structural demand)
Below this zone risks continuation into a broader bearish leg
➡️ Primary Scenario:
Price holds above the 3,060–3,100 support zone and forms a higher low. A bullish reaction from this area would likely trigger a corrective recovery toward the 3,200 level first, followed by a potential extension into the 3,280–3,320 resistance zone. This move would be classified as a corrective rally, not an immediate trend reversal.
⚠️ Risk Scenario:
A clean breakdown and acceptance below the support zone would invalidate the bounce setup. In that case, ETH could accelerate into a deeper bearish continuation, opening the path toward lower untested demand levels.
Has BTC Completed Its Bullish CycleBitcoin has completed a full bullish cycle and is now transitioning into a post-distribution corrective phase. After a clear accumulation base, price delivered a strong impulsive expansion (Phase 2), printing a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This bullish leg peaked inside the Phase 3 distribution zone, where upside momentum stalled and selling pressure began to dominate.
The failure to hold above the last key higher low marked a structural shift. What initially appeared as a healthy pullback has now evolved into a deeper correction, with price accelerating lower and respecting a newly formed bearish structure.
Price is currently trading below the former bullish mid-range and is being capped by a descending trendline, which is acting as dynamic resistance. The prior “mid-pullback inside bullish structure” zone has failed, confirming that buyers are no longer in control at that level.
The market is now respecting a series of lower highs, while bearish impulses are stronger and cleaner than bullish reactions a key sign that momentum has flipped.
Resistance:
91,200 – 91,400 (broken structure / supply reaction)
Descending trendline resistance
Support:
89,000 – 89,200 (minor reaction level)
86,800 – 87,200 (major downside target / structural support)
➡️ Primary Scenario:
Price continues to respect the descending trendline and forms another lower high. A rejection from the 91.2k–91.4k zone would confirm bearish continuation, opening the path toward the 89k level first, followed by a deeper move into the 86.8k–87.2k support zone.
⚠️ Risk Scenario:
If price reclaims and accepts back above the broken mid-structure zone, the bearish continuation would be invalidated. In that case, BTC could transition into a broader range rather than immediate continuation lower.
Healthy Pullback or Trend Breakdown? Market Context & Structure
BTC has delivered a strong impulsive rally, shifting market structure decisively bullish on the H1 timeframe. After the vertical expansion, price is now transitioning into a corrective phase, consolidating between a clearly defined resistance zone above and a higher demand area below. This behavior is typical of post-impulse digestion rather than trend failure.
Despite recent volatility and sharp wicks, the broader structure remains constructive as long as price continues to respect higher lows. The current price action reflects a battle between short-term profit-taking and medium-term trend continuation.
Technical Confluence
Price is currently trading between the rising EMA cluster, which continues to act as dynamic support, and a supply-heavy resistance zone where selling pressure previously emerged. The fast EMA has started to flatten, while the slower EMA remains positively sloped, suggesting momentum cooling but not yet reversing.
The highlighted support zone aligns closely with EMA support and prior breakout structure, reinforcing it as a key area for buyers to defend if the bullish trend is to remain intact.
Key Levels
Resistance:
94,400 – 94,900 (supply / rejection zone)
Support:
91,300 – 91,700 (demand zone)
90,400 (major horizontal support)
EMA / Dynamic Level:
EMA cluster around 92,000–92,400
Scenarios
➡️ Primary Scenario:
Rejection from the resistance zone leads to a controlled pullback into the 91.3k–91.7k support area. If price forms a higher low and shows bullish reaction within this zone, continuation toward the 94.8k resistance — and potentially a breakout toward 96k+ — becomes the higher-probability outcome.
⚠️ Risk Scenario:
A clean breakdown below the support zone with acceptance under the EMA cluster would invalidate the bullish continuation setup. In that case, downside extension toward the 90.4k level is likely, signaling a deeper corrective phase rather than a shallow pullback.
Bitcoin Is Building a Base — Accumulation Before the Next Push Price is consolidating above the key support zone around 89,800–90,000, showing clear signs of selling pressure absorption after the recent sell-off. Volume behavior suggests potential accumulation rather than aggressive distribution.
As long as price holds above 89,800, the bullish scenario remains favored. A clean break and acceptance above 91,200–91,500 would confirm upside momentum, opening the path toward 93,000, followed by the major target near 94,700–95,000.
Only a decisive breakdown below 89,800 would invalidate the bullish setup. For now, buyers appear to be positioning for the next expansion leg to the upside.
SOLANA - retest resistance of the trading range BINANCE:SOLUSDT has been rising since the session opened amid a weak market. The altcoin is showing bullish momentum in a predominantly bearish market, with a focus on the 145.0 zone.
Bitcoin is rebounding from resistance amid a global downtrend. There is currently no bullish potential (across the entire market), which is putting pressure on altcoins overall.
SOL, against the backdrop of a neutral market, is seeking to test the resistance zone of 144.7 - 146.0 - a key liquidity zone that plays an important role for MM in the current circumstances.
A short squeeze and the formation of a reversal pattern could shift the imbalance towards sellers, which in turn could lead to a decline.
Resistance levels: 143.4, 144.7, 146.0
Support levels: 134.3, 127.55
Solana is trading in a neutral trading range of 145.0 - 123.0. The main trend is bearish. The bullish run and retest of resistance can be perceived as a hunt for liquidity. We are interested in the above-mentioned resistance zone and confirmation in the form of a false breakout to enter the market.
Best regards, R. Linda!
50 DAY $BTC WHALE FARM IN PROGRESS 50 Day Whale Farm, Community Challenge in Progress.
- Since the 30% decline from the October 2025 Bulltrap (See Sunday Oct 12th to Sunday October 26 Closers for reference)
BTCUSD has been in a 50 day whale farm with an average catch floor of 85k with a low of 81,600k.
This has been an endurance test by whales to see if the community can push past resistance without assistance from traditional finance. IMO I don't see many of them cashing out their gains to turn around and chase this market. This is a War between the 7% majority and it's OG Whales. I would rather have the floor break and continue a full -70% reduction from the top than let Corporations and Monopolies like MicroStrategy control the market with their Moby Dick Whale Size Bags this early in BTCUSD life cycle.
#NFA
CRYPTO:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD
$BTC 2026 Wide Divergence Prediction 2026CRYPTO:BTCUSD
This prediction is simple, and based on the only Wide Divergence visible on the Weekly Candle chart through out the life span of CRYPTOCAP:BTC , which occurred roughly from June 2022 to December 2022 for an estimate of 203 days and is directly responsible for the price action that followed over the next 2.7 years.
- I believe that every crypto moves at its own individual rate depending on age, mcap, token circulation, holder count, ect... and that Bitcoin is the slowest moving of all.
- It is also my belief the 3x Meme Coin Pump is not only a naturally occurring phenomenon in Memes, But also Bitcoin. And we have just watched it unfold in real time over the last 2.7 years and are are in the -70% reversal from top right now.
3x Pump Date Range
- Start Date : 11/20/22 CRYPTOCAP:BTC @ 16k
- 1x Date : 3/10/24 CRYPTOCAP:BTC @ 70k
- 2x Date : 1/0/25 CRYPTOCAP:BTC @ 105k
- 3x Date : 11/5/25 CRYPTOCAP:BTC @ 125k
Start to 1x = 468 days / 1x - 2x Pump = 293 Days / 2x to 3x Pump = 249 Days
- For the last 50 days we have been tested in a whale farm with a 85k bottom and a 94k top, we are currently in the down trend from the third and final swing as the community was not able to break past the 93500k Resistance zone during this time. In the upcoming weeks we will see a sharp decline in price action breaking the 85k and create a new floor at 68k for a shorter period of time before finally completing our decent to roughly 55k.. This final bottom will be the start indicator for the next 200 day (estimated) Wide Divergence Set Up, before resetting the next 3x Pump.
Thank you for time, Hope for feedback!!
Profit > Cost Average
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
BTC/USDT 4H Chart📈 Trend
Main trend: up
Local trend: downward correction
The uptrend line (black) has still not been broken → this is crucial.
🟩 Support Zones
The most important levels you have well-marked:
91,120 – 91,400
Current price reaction
Local support + mid-range
Decisive in the short term
90,120
Very important zone
Overlaps with:
previous consolidation
potential retest of the trendline
Loss = deepening correction
88,843
Strong structural support
If price reaches here → high probability of bounce
87,235
Bulls' last line of defense
Break = structure changes to bearish
🔴 Resistance
91,400 – 91,500
Nearest resistance
Here we'll see if the uptrend has fuel
92,718
Very important level
Return above = bulls regain control
94 834
High / supply zone
Unlikely to be broken on the first try without an impulse.
📊 Stochastic RSI
Was heavily oversold.
Now bouncing from the lows → a short-term bounce signal.
Note: in an uptrend, the Stochastic RSI often gives false short signals.
➡️ Supports a corrective bounce scenario, not a dump.
🧠 Scenarios
🟢 Baseline scenario (more likely)
Defense 90-91k
Bounce → test 91.5k → 92.7k
Consolidation and decision
🔴 Negative scenario
Break 90 120
Down to 88.8k
Reaction there (or fake breakdown)
BITCOIN PREDICTION / WIDE DIVERGENCE 2026This prediction is simple, and based on the only Wide Divergence visible on the Weekly Candle chart through out the life span of CRYPTOCAP:BTC , which occurred roughly from June 2022 to December 2022 for an estimate of 203 days and is directly responsible for the price action that followed over the next 2.7 years.
- I believe that every crypto moves at its own individual rate depending on age, mcap, token circulation, holder count, ect... and that Bitcoin is the slowest moving of all.
- It is also my belief the 3x Meme Coin Pump is not only a naturally occurring phenomenon in Memes, But also Bitcoin. And we have just watched it unfold in real time over the last 2.7 years and are are in the -70% reversal from top right now.
3x Pump Date Range
- Start Date : 11/20/22 CRYPTOCAP:BTC @ 16k
- 1x Date : 3/10/24 CRYPTOCAP:BTC @ 70k
- 2x Date : 1/0/25 CRYPTOCAP:BTC @ 105k
- 3x Date : 11/5/25 CRYPTOCAP:BTC @ 125k
Start to 1x = 468 days / 1x - 2x Pump = 293 Days / 2x to 3x Pump = 249 Days
- For the last 50 days we have been tested in a whale farm with a 85k bottom and a 94k top, we are currently in the down trend from the third and final swing as the community was not able to break past the 93500k Resistance zone during this time. In the upcoming weeks we will see a sharp decline in price action breaking the current 85k floor and will create a new floor at 68k for a shorter period of time before finally completing our decent to roughly 55k.. This final bottom will be the start indicator for the next 200 day (estimated) Wide Divergence Set Up, before resetting the next 3x Pump.
Thank you for time, Hope for feedback!!
Profit > Cost Average
-MikeyLikesDips707
BTC: The Premium Zone Trap (4H vs 1H)Bitcoin is at a decisive junction. We are trading in the Premium Zone ($93,700+) with a clear conflict between timeframes. The 4H screams exhaustion (RSI 70.7 + Low Volume), while the 1H structure remains stubbornly bullish, holding above the $92,102 demand zone. The structure is intact, but the conviction is missing.
1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY (4H + 1H)
📉 We are seeing a divergence between price action and momentum:
• The Trap (4H): Price is in the Premium sell zone. RSI is overbought (70.7) and volume is down 41% at these highs. This is classic "divergence" behavior, price grinding up while participation drops.
• The Floor (1H): Despite the macro exhaustion, the 1H timeframe has cooled off (RSI 42.9) and is respecting the Ascending Support Trendline ($92,306).
• The Magnet: We have a bearish OB supply overhead at $94,760, but a juicy unfilled FVG sitting below at $90,189. Price hates leaving these gaps open.
2. THE CONFLICT: MOMENTUM VS. STRUCTURE ⚖️
Bearish Case (The Exhaustion):
• Volume has collapsed 66% on the 1H timeframe.
• MACD is printing bearish divergence on the 4H.
• 14.1% wick rejection at the $94,760 local top suggests sellers are active.
Bullish Case (The Trend):
• CHoCH and BOS are both confirmed bullish.
• Price is holding above all major EMAs (20/50/200).
• Buyers are defending the $92,102 Order Block.
3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯
We play the reaction, not the prediction. Here are the two probability paths:
🔴 Scenario A: The Premium Rejection (Higher Probability) If volume fails to return, gravity takes over.
• Trigger: Loss of the 1H support trendline ($92,300)
• Target 1: $90,189 (Filling the 4H FVG)
• Target 2: $86,760 (Major Swing Low)
• Invalidation: 4H Close above $94,760
🟢 Scenario B: The Demand Reclaim If the 1H structure holds, we squeeze the shorts.
• Trigger: Bounce from $92,102 (Bullish OB) with increasing volume
• Target: $94,760 (Range High) → $96,000 Extension
• Stop: Tight below $91,900
MY VERDICT Short-term structure is bullish, but the "fuel" (volume) is empty. I am leaning 68% bearish (expecting a sweep of the $90k FVG) unless we see a massive volume injection above $94k. Patience is the play, let the $92,100 level dictate the next move.
MARKET ROTATION WATCHLIST
📋 While Bitcoin consolidates in this premium zone, liquidity often rotates into specific altcoin setups that are lagging behind.
I am updating my watchlist today for coins that are showing cleaner structure than BTC.
BTCUSDT: Pullback Toward Demand ZoneHi!
Bitcoin is showing short-term weakness after failing to hold above the recent high. Price is currently trading below the local resistance area, suggesting a corrective pullback rather than continuation.
The highlighted demand zone around 90.4K–90.9K is a key area to watch. This level previously acted as resistance and was later flipped into support.
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 93.1K–94.4K
• Demand / Support: 90.4K–90.9K
Downside Target:
• 90,500 (primary demand zone)
As long as price remains below resistance, a deeper retracement into demand is likely. Reaction at support will determine the next directional move.
BTCUSDT.P - January 8, 2026Bitcoin is trading below former support at 90,000–90,200, which is now acting as firm resistance, keeping the short-term bias bearish. A short entry is favored on retracements into 89,850–90,050, with profit targets near 87,700–87,900 at the next major support zone. A stop-loss should be placed above 91,200–91,400, as a move back above this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
SOLUSDT is poised to break support before falling Manipulative pumping of volumes to attract buyers to the bear market. The retest of the 140-142 zone ended with a short squeeze and turned into a decline in tandem with a decline in market volumes
After attempting to rise above 140.0, Solana formed a reversal pattern, the market changed character, and the local structure broke down, indicating a bearish sentiment.
If the coin closes below 134, the market may intensify the sell-off and decline to 128.75 - 124.25
Scenario: A retest of 134.2 - 136.8 may confirm market weakness. If the price consolidates below this area, it may cause further price decline
HBAR – Rejected at Key Resistance, Retracement Entry OpportunityHBAR recently rejected hard at the $0.135 resistance zone, showing sellers still dominate at that level. However, a breakout and successful flip of $0.135 into support could ignite the next leg upward. With price currently retracing, this sets up a solid opportunity for a spot long position on the dip.
📍 Entry Zone: $0.1175 – $0.1243
🛑 Stop-Loss: Just below $0.1125
🎯 Take Profits:
• TP1: $0.135
• TP2: $0.15 – $0.165
• TP3: $0.19 – $0.21
If the $0.135 level flips cleanly with volume, expect bulls to regain momentum. As always, manage risk accordingly and monitor how price reacts at these zones.
AVAX Update – Watch for Pullback to Key SupportAVAX has rallied nearly +23% since our last trade idea and is now facing strong resistance. The move has been sharp, but price is showing signs of exhaustion here, and we expect a pullback before any further upside. This creates a solid opportunity to position for the next wave.
🔍 We're targeting a long spot entry around $13.30, which lines up with a previous support zone. This level offers a good risk/reward window, especially with confirmation from past price structure.
📌 Trade Plan:
Long Entry: ~$13.30
Take Profit Targets: $15.00 – $17.10, $18.50 – $21.00
Stop Loss: Below $12.70
BTC - Demand Did Its Job. Now Watching the ChannelBTC reacted exactly where it was supposed to... the blue demand zone held, and buyers stepped in!
Since that reaction, price has started to shift short-term momentum to the upside, forming a rising channel. Nothing aggressive yet, but structure is slowly improving.
From here, my focus is simple:
as long as BTC keeps trading within this blue channel, I’ll be patiently looking for pullbacks toward the lower bound, and from there, trend-following long setups.
The natural upside magnet remains the orange structure zone, which is still acting as the key decision area.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector. 3088.86 BPC 9© Bolzen | The Architect | BPC Framework
Bolzen Market Institute
🏷 ETH — Price Slice. Capital Sector.
TradingView Publication Date: 07.01.2026
🏷 3088.86 — price not yet reached at time of publication.
🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant — Strength Index: 9
Quantum structure of obligations and capital flow in price formation via energy blocks.
🏷 Vertical chart — Energy Grid Dashboard.
🏷 Static Stream 1: price published in energy-block production sequence.
🏷 The price energy block is already ordered—not by time, but by execution priority. Crucially: block priority dynamically reconfigures in response to hidden energetic impulses, whereas price execution order records their market manifestation. Every price in the dynamic stream is tied to proprietary energy-production metrics inaccessible to the general public. Those who perceive structure before its manifestation do not follow price—they anticipate it.
EΞ2Φ8Ψ45Θ·ζ⁻¹·106Λ732·Ω²
📎 Screenshot:
🏷 When trading from levels, use liquidity zones from BPC 10 and above.
🏷 Bolzen Liquidity Map — ETH (numerical equivalent):
🏷 I. Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations.
— The Architect
BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
#EURJPY , BuySide QuickScalp ?📊 Morning Market Brief | London Session Prep
🔎 Instrument Focus: #EURJPY
⚠️ Risk Environment: High
📈 Technical Overview:
Lets have it in BUY side as well .
🚀 Trading Plan:
• Wait for Momentum around key levels
• LTF ENTRY NEEDED
• Manage risk aggressively, protect capital first
🧠 Stay updated with real time news and macro events, visit 👉 @News_Ash_TheTrader_Bot
#Ash_TheTrader #Forex #EURUSD #MarketInsight #PriceAction #TradingPlan #RiskManagement #LondonSession #Scalping #Futures #NQ #Gold
Bitcoin CME Gaps (1H)Bitcoin currently has two unfilled CME gaps located in the lower price regions. Historically, CME gaps tend to act as strong magnets for price, as Bitcoin often revisits these areas to fill the gaps before resuming its primary trend. While this behavior is not guaranteed, it has occurred frequently enough to be considered an important factor in technical analysis.
At the moment, the first CME gap is positioned in the 91K–90K zone, which represents a relatively shallow pullback area and could be tested during a normal corrective move. If selling pressure increases or the market enters a deeper retracement phase, the second CME gap located around 88K may come into play as a stronger downside target.
These levels should be monitored closely, as price reactions around CME gaps can provide valuable insight into market strength, liquidity absorption, and potential trend continuation. A clean fill followed by strong bullish confirmation could indicate that the market is preparing for the next leg higher. Conversely, failure to reclaim these levels may suggest extended consolidation or deeper correction.
As always, CME gaps should be analyzed in confluence with other technical tools such as market structure, support and resistance zones, volume behavior, and momentum indicators. They are not standalone signals, but when combined with broader market context, they can significantly improve trade planning and risk management.
If you have a coin or altcoin you want analyzed, first hit the like button and then comment its name so I can review it for you.
This is not a trade setup, as it has no precise stop-loss, stop, or target. I do not publish my trade setups here.
BITCOIN Realized Price shows where the bottom might be.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has always priced its bottom below its Realized Price (red trend-line) on every signal Bear Cycle it had.
In fact the bottom was considerably lower than the Realized Price. The last two Bear Cycles (2022 and 2018) have had fairly similar bottoms, dropping by -33.80% and -35.45% respectively from the moment the price broke below the Realized Price.
Based on where the Realized Price is now (which by the time BTC hits it, will be lower) a rounded up -30% decline would have us reach $39000. The Realized Price deviation band (orange cloud) however would be just under $45000 towards the end of the year (which is roughly when we expect the Bear Cycle to end)
As a result, a fair bottom zone could be $45000 - $39000.
Do you think that's a feasible level to expect? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bitcoin - Weekly Trend Holds, $146K Fib Extension NextBitcoin Weekly Structure Intact: $90K Support Holding, $146K Extension Target
Bitcoin is respecting the weekly uptrend structure with current consolidation around the $90K zone.
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $72,395 held as support during the recent correction, and price is now positioned for the next leg higher targeting the -0.618 Fibonacci extension at $146,676. Historical precedent from August 2024 suggests this pattern could repeat.
📊 Current Technical Picture:
Weekly Trend: The ascending trendline from the 2023 lows remains intact. Price is consolidating above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $79,487, showing the correction has found support.
Multiple weekly closes above $90K would confirm continuation setup.
Key Fibonacci Levels: The 0.618 retracement at $72,395 acted as strong support during the pullback.
Current price around $90K sits between the 0.5 Fib ($79,487) and the 0.382 Fib ($86,578). The 0.236 Fib at $95,383 is the next resistance to clear.
Upside Target: The -0.618 Fibonacci extension projects to $146,676, representing 63% upside from current $90K levels.
🔄 August 2024 Precedent:
What Happened Then: In August 2024, Bitcoin consolidated at the 0.5 Fibonacci level around $49,366. After confirming support, price launched into a powerful rally that extended to the previous all-time high zone near $73,000. The move delivered approximately 48% gains in just a few months.
The Pattern: Consolidation at mid-range Fibonacci level. Weekly trend confirmation with higher lows. Breakout above resistance. Extension to Fibonacci projection target. Volume expansion on the move higher.
Why It Matters: The current setup mirrors August 2024 structure. Bitcoin is consolidating at a key Fibonacci support zone with the weekly trend intact. If the pattern repeats, the measured move targets the $146K extension level.
📈 Why $146K Target:
Fibonacci Extension Math: From the cycle low to the previous high, the -0.618 extension projects to $146,676. This isn't arbitrary, it's based on the golden ratio mathematical relationship that Bitcoin has respected throughout its history.
Market Cap Context: $146K Bitcoin equals approximately $2.9 trillion market cap. While this seems aggressive, it represents similar percentage gains to previous bull cycle extensions. The 2020-2021 cycle saw Bitcoin go from $10K to $69K, a 590% gain. From current $90K to $146K is 63%, conservative by historical standards.
Institutional Backdrop: Spot ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, and nation-state interest provide fundamental support for the technical projection. The infrastructure for six-figure Bitcoin now exists.
🎯 The Setup:
Support Zone: $90K holding as current consolidation floor. Deeper support at $79,487 (0.5 Fib) and $72,395 (0.618 Fib) if needed.
Resistance to Clear: $95,383 (0.236 Fib) is immediate resistance. Break above this level with volume confirms the next leg up is beginning.
Target: $146,676 (-0.618 Fibonacci extension). This represents the measured move if the weekly trend continues and Bitcoin follows the August 2024 playbook.
Timeframe: If the pattern mirrors August 2024, the move could take 3-6 months to fully develop. Expect consolidation periods along the way.
📊 Weekly Trend Analysis:
Trendline Intact: The ascending trendline from 2023 lows has not been violated. Every test of this trendline has resulted in continuation higher. Current price action is respecting this structure.
Higher Lows Pattern: Bitcoin continues to form higher lows on the weekly timeframe. The recent low around $90K is above the previous correction low. This is textbook uptrend behavior.
Volume Profile: The consolidation at $90K is occurring on declining volume, typical of healthy corrections. When the breakout occurs, volume expansion should confirm the move.
Moving Averages: Weekly 21 EMA and 50 EMA are both rising underneath price, providing dynamic support. Price has remained above these key moving averages throughout the trend.
🔄 August 2024 Comparison:
Then: Consolidated at $49K after pullback. Tested 0.5 Fibonacci support multiple times. Weekly trend remained intact. Launched to $73K (48% gain).
Now: Consolidating at $90K after pullback. Testing 0.5 Fibonacci area. Weekly trend remains intact. Targeting $146K (63% gain projected).
The Parallel: Same Fibonacci retracement level. Same weekly trend structure. Same consolidation behavior. If history repeats, similar explosive move higher.
🚀 Catalysts for the Move:
Spot ETF Flows: Institutional accumulation continues through Bitcoin ETFs. Daily inflows provide consistent buying pressure that supports upward momentum.
Halving Cycle: The April 2024 halving historically leads to bull market peaks 12-18 months later. We're now 9 months post-halving, entering the typical acceleration phase.
Macro Environment: Potential Fed rate cuts in 2025 would benefit Bitcoin as a scarce asset. Liquidity conditions improving supports risk assets.
Nation-State Adoption: Countries and corporations continue adding Bitcoin to treasuries. This long-term HODLing reduces available supply.
⚠️ What Could Invalidate:
Weekly Close Below $72K: If Bitcoin closes a weekly candle below the 0.618 Fibonacci at $72,395, the trend structure is compromised. This would suggest the correction is deeper than anticipated.
Trendline Break: A decisive break below the ascending weekly trendline would indicate trend failure. This is the critical support that must hold for the bullish thesis.
Macro Shock: Recession, financial crisis, or major risk-off event could override technical structure. Bitcoin still correlates with broader risk sentiment.
Volume Failure: If Bitcoin attempts to break $95K without volume expansion, it suggests lack of conviction. Sustainable moves require volume confirmation.
🧠 Why Most Will Miss This:
At $90K Now: "It's already up so much from $16K, too risky to buy here."
At $110K: "Should have bought at $90K, I'll wait for a pullback."
At $130K: "This is a bubble, it's going to crash."
At $146K: "Why didn't I buy at $90K when it was obvious?"
The Pattern: Early entries feel uncomfortable. Confirmation feels late. Obvious is actually late. Right now, at $90K with weekly trend intact, is still early for the $146K target.
⚠️ Important Disclaimers:
This analysis is for educational purposes and reflects a technical view based on Fibonacci extensions, historical pattern recognition, and weekly timeframe structure. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency.
Cryptocurrency investing carries extreme risk. Bitcoin can experience 20-30% corrections even during bull markets. The $146K target is a mathematical projection based on Fibonacci ratios, not a guaranteed outcome.
The August 2024 comparison is based on similar technical setups, but past patterns do not guarantee future results. Each market phase has unique characteristics and risks.
Weekly trend analysis provides structure but can fail during major market dislocations. The 0.618 Fibonacci support could break, invalidating the bullish thesis.
Position sizing must account for Bitcoin's volatility. Never invest more than you can afford to lose completely. Cryptocurrency should represent only a portion of a diversified portfolio.
Always conduct independent research, manage risk appropriately, and consider your investment timeframe and risk tolerance. All cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss.






















