The Anatomy of a Bottom. Why the $60k Breakdown Isn't the EndGreetings, everyone.
Today, we are going to perform a deep dive into the most critical process in any market: the formation of a bottom. I want to share with you not just patterns, but the very psychology and mechanics of a reversal, a subject I have been studying and honing since 2019. For my trading style, where the goal is to find an entry with minimal stop-loss and maximum profit potential, understanding formation of the bottom and top.
Part 1: The Physics of the Market. Why Instant Reversals Don't Happen.
The first and most important rule that needs to be carved in granite is this: in an established market, especially for a multi-trillion dollar asset like Bitcoin, there is no such thing as a quick recovery after a prolonged decline.
The market is not a rubber ball. It is a massive mechanism that obeys the laws of inertia. Every phase—accumulation, growth, distribution—requires time. Big capital needs a wide price range and months to accumulate or distribute a position without creating anomalous movements. Liquidity in the crypto market is fragmented; it's spread across dozens of exchanges, and moving large funds onto a CEX is a risk in itself. All of this slows the process down.
Therefore, the market always moves according to the same pattern: Impulse -> Correction (Sideways) -> Impulse . We cannot skip the phase of a long, grueling sideways correction. And we are entering exactly such a phase right now.
Part 2: The $60k Breakdown. A Cold-Blooded Hunt and the "First Leg" of the Bottom.
Let's break down the recent drop. They will tell you fairy tales about an erroneous transfer on Bithumb. Let's leave those fairy tales to the storytellers who look for simple explanations.
In reality, what happened was a cold-blooded, calculated hunt for liquidity. The $64-66k zone was an obvious magnet.
The market always moves from one liquidity pool to another, and this was the largest one. Exchanges and the biggest manipulators earn from liquidations. Without any news, without any apparent reason, they came to the exact point where the maximum pain for long positions was concentrated, and they took their money. You saw the tears on Twitter. This is normal. This is market mechanics.
I stopped asking "why did this happen?" long ago. You can invent any explanation in hindsight. The fact is, someone was pushing buttons. I will not mince words: with this move, we have established the " first leg " of our future bottom. We have marked the first critical point from which the entire future formation will be built.
Part 3: The Architecture of a Bottom. What It Actually Looks Like.
A bottom is a complex structure. Here is the most common scenario I have observed over the years:
The "First Leg" Forms: A sharp drop occurs ( like the one we just had ), establishing the first significant low.
The Deceptive Recovery: A slow bounce begins. It gives the market false hope for a V-shaped recovery.
The Return and "Support" Illusion: The price slowly drifts back down to the level of the first low. This level starts to look like rock-solid support. Everyone sees it, everyone buys from it.
The Final Act: The Liquidation Sweep. Below this obvious support line, liquidity accumulates for weeks—the stop-losses of the buyers. When enough has gathered, a sharp, final move down occurs. It breaks the "support," collects all the stops, and only after this final capitulation does the true reversal begin.
We saw variations of this in 2024, in the
73k−49k range, where a series of lower lows transitioned into a long, grueling sideways market.
And we saw it in the great bear market of 2021-2022—a series of deadly downward impulses, interrupted by corrections that systematically killed off any hope.
In this post, I didn't say anything about the accumulation and distribution of Wyckoff.
But the last time I posted about it, I was told I didn't understand anything about it—okay.
Part 4: My Plan and a Warning to the "Gods of the Market".
I want to speak directly to those whose limit order was luckily filled at $60,000. If you think you've caught lightning in a bottle and become a god of this market, I want to warn you: the market brutally punishes such overconfident people.
One successful trade is not a system. We are in a global bear market, which is exacerbated by external factors. US indices and gold are at all-time highs. The geopolitical cards of Taiwan and the Middle East have not yet been fully played. The market dislikes instability, and in such times, capital flees from the highest-risk assets. And cryptocurrency is asset number one on that list.
My personal timing has not changed: I believe the complete formation of the bottom and my position accumulation phase will conclude by September 2026.
Since 2022, I have, and I don't say this lightly, identified the key tops and bottoms of this market with 90% accuracy
proof in the links:
This isn't magic. It's an approach based on an understanding of timing and market cycles. I have dropped hints about this system in my posts since 2017, but the full, structured methodology is something I share only in my Academy.
Welcome.
Best Regards, Your EXCAVO.
