GBPUSD: Market Pullback Before the Next Upside Expansion1. MARKET CONTEXT
- GBPUSD has just completed a mild corrective pullback after a strong bullish leg, reflecting a healthy market reaction following the latest UK GDP release.
- The GDP data came in stable and slightly better than expected, not spectacular but strong enough to ease recession fears.
This creates a constructive environment for GBP not explosive, but certainly not bearish.
2. MACRO DRIVERS
✓ UK GDP Stability Supports GBP
Yesterday’s GDP print showed steady growth, reinforcing the view that the UK economy is gradually improving.
→ This reduces downside pressure on GBP in the short term.
✓ BOE Expected to Hold Rates Higher for Longer
With services inflation still sticky, the market is pricing in that the BOE will delay any rate cuts.
→ This acts as a tailwind for GBP during pullbacks.
✓ USD Softening as Markets Price Early Fed Cuts in 2025
Not aggressively bearish, but the USD is losing momentum as traders anticipate a shift toward Fed easing.
→ This opens the door for GBPUSD to resume its upside.
3. TECHNICAL STRUCTURE
On the GBPUSD 1H chart, price is forming a clean corrective pullback into the 1.3375 – 1.3380 support zone.
Key technical signals:
- Price is building a Higher Low after the pullback → bullish continuation structure
- Long lower wicks → declining sell pressure
- The 1.3375 support has been retested multiple times → strong demand
- The ascending trendline remains intact → uptrend not broken
→ The structure currently shows accumulation before upward breakout.
4. TRADE IDEA / PRICE EXPECTATION
As long as price holds above 1.3375, the bullish continuation setup remains valid.
Upside targets (matching your chart):
TP1: 1.34156
TP2: 1.34379
TP3: 1.34716
Expected behavior:
✔ Minor pullback
✔ Sideways accumulation
✔ Bullish leg toward TP1 → TP2 → TP3
5. MARKET SENTIMENT & OUTLOOK
With supportive GDP data, BOE’s higher-for-longer stance, mild USD weakness, and a clean bullish structure on the chart:
→ Short-term Trend: Sideways → Support → Bullish Continuation
→ Directional Bias: Upside toward all 3 targets
