Bitcoin Weekly - PA on Cycle Base Support line and bouncing.
We are now in the last week of November and we may have hit the Low / Bottom and produced that Red candle that was suggested at month start.
PA Could Wick down in a Flash crash to Kill Longs that are mounting, before a sustained push higher in December, so remain Cautious.
This is just My opinion..It could obviously Go either way but we can see PA sitting on that Blue line, that is LONG Term support from way back in 2013
PA Fell though that line Once only, in late 2015 and recovered
The Weekly MACD
The weekly MACD is still dropping but is now approaching oversold. This has begun to open the door to it turning up. It will not drop forever
We need to watch the Histogram and wait for that to change colour, showing us that the MACD (Yellow) is getting closer to the signal line ( Red ),
The Weekly RSI
While the RSI is below Neutral, it is NOT fully over Sold yet but is a lot lower than previously.
AND we can see that it has turned Flat, stopped dropping.
This last week of November, PA could see a slight rise and so the RSI is the first thing we see moving higher.
So, For now, I think we have seen the worse of the Blood letting and now, we level out, maybe rise some, with the potential for a Flash crash to take out leverage.
I am fully waiting for December to start now.....
We are nearly out of the Woods.....Hang in there
I am not to sure how much influence the FED and its Rates decision will have over all.
We have seen in the past how BTC PA will often move independent of Rate Rises / Drops.
The chart above shows BTC PA and the Rate changes....
There ar elots of influences but , well, I am not to sure Bitcoin is finished just yet.
December and January will tell us for sure.
Btcmacd
If BTC pullsback to 80K, DO NOT PANIC -Here is why
Very simply, Bitcoin recently broke over the line of resistance ( dashed line) that has kept it down since the ATH at the beginning of the year.
As you can see, it has not yet returned to that line on a larger time scale chart, to retest it as support. It did do that on a 4 hour chart but maybe we are about to see that on a daily to, just to check how strong it is.
After all, things are very uncertain right now in many ways.
The Federal Reserve of the Usa has a speech day tomorrow and so this may act as a catalyst, one way or another.
Bitcoin Weekly MACD is in a position of strength now
And we have seen a positive reaction of PA already, if a little subdued while we wait for the Macro environment to calm down
The Histogram is looking Bullish though this can change quickly but over all, we are in a very good place right now.....
So, Worry not if PA drops some in the next 24 hours.
If we loose 78K, then get a little uncertain.
The next level of support below that is the 2.272 fib extension at 76900 - we do not want to loose that one for too long but I doubt we will get there, providing Macro stays steady
So, Chill out and let see what happens tomorrow with the FED speech.
Revisit to a BITCOIN idea posted in Mid March- TAKE OFF SOON ?
I first posted this idea on 19 March ( link at end of this post )
The idea is that because MACD on the weekly is still Falling bearish and is likely to remain doing so till at least Neutral is reached. This would Mean that PA had to Range in a region to allow that Drop
Things Excellerated though and that date of Mid Late April has now been pushed forward and Now, MACD reaches Neutral around 7th April - NEXT WEEK
Once MACD Neutral is reached, PA could rise with strength behind it....... This moment is getting nearer.... and so the original idea that this would happen over months got condensed in to Weeks and we now have DAYS to wait.
So, on the main chart, we wait to see if PA crosses that overhead resistance ealy next week
HOWEVER, we need to watch this Close as MACD could Drop below Neutral.
This would likely take PA down to that 618 retrace Fib line originaly arrowed.
Another thing backing a possible push is the BITCOIN DOMINACE cotined strength.
This, to the cost of the ALTS, has contained to rise and as long as it remains above that trend line, people shold buy BITCOIN more than ALTS.
It is that simple
So, lets see what happens next week. This cold be VERY GOOD



