Bitcoin - BTCUSDT – Daily NeoWave AnalysisStructure: Contracting Triangle (ABCDE)
Current Price: $108,985 (+1.3%)
🧠 Wave Structure Overview
Bitcoin’s daily chart is forming a Contracting Triangle pattern under NeoWave principles (Glen Neely).
This triangle appears to be part of a wave (4) correction within a larger impulsive cycle, consisting of subwaves A–B–C–D–E with well-balanced price and time proportions.
🔹 Wave Details
Wave A: Decline from 126K → 104K
Type: Impulsive start, setting the corrective tone.
Wave B: Sharp recovery to 123K (≈78.6% retrace of A)
Type: Zigzag – strong bullish response typical for triangles.
Wave C: Pullback to 106K, forming a 3-wave Flat correction.
Wave D: Rally to 118–119K, reaching 70% of wave B — perfectly proportional for a contracting structure.
Wave E: Final leg down toward 106K–107K, with diminishing momentum and volume — a textbook NeoWave E-wave behavior signaling triangle completion.
🔍 Technical Observations
Strong bullish divergence between price and RSI/OBV at the E-wave low.
Decreasing volume during wave E → confirms a terminal corrective phase.
Price remains above the long-term rising trendline and key demand zone near 106K.
🟢 Primary Scenario (≈70% Probability)
Triangle completed at E-wave (106K) → beginning of wave (5) to the upside.
Targets:
1️⃣ 115K–118K – short-term breakout zone
2️⃣ 123K–126K – retest of triangle resistance
3️⃣ 138K–145K – extended target if wave (5) unfolds impulsively
🔴 Alternative Scenario (≈30% Probability)
If BTC breaks below 106K, wave E may extend deeper toward 102K–100K, forming a Running Triangle E before a strong bullish reversal.
⚙️ Summary
✅ Current pattern: Contracting Triangle (ABCDE)
✅ Position: End of wave E of (4)
📈 Expectation: Start of wave (5) impulsive advance
⚠️ Invalidation: Daily close below 102K
Conclusion:
BTC is likely completing a major corrective phase. Holding above 106K keeps the bullish breakout scenario valid — watch for a decisive move above 111K–112K to confirm the next impulsive leg.
