Btcusdanalysis
BTC/USD: Seeking Bearish Continuation in Key Supply ZonesI'm sharing a detailed technical analysis on the potential next move for BTC/USD. The current structure suggests that after the recent bullish retracement, we might be approaching a high-probability area for sellers to regain control.
Detailed Technical Analysis
1. Context: The Dominant Bearish Impulse
The starting point of our analysis is the clear and strong bearish impulse observed on the daily timeframe. This establishes our bias for the coming weeks: to look for selling opportunities that align with this primary trend.
2. The Retracement: The Fibonacci Golden Pocket
Currently, the price is in a corrective bullish retracement. We've drawn a Fibonacci tool from the swing high (start of the impulse) to the swing low (end of the impulse). The price is now entering the key zone between the 0.618 and 0.786 levels. This area, often called the "Golden Pocket," is statistically an optimal zone for the main trend to resume.
3. The Confluence Zone: Daily Order Block
Within our Fibonacci zone, we've identified a Daily Order Block that acts as a strong supply and resistance area. The confluence of a key Fibo level with an institutional order block creates a very high-probability zone for a bearish reaction. It is in this area that we expect "smart money" to defend their short positions.
4. Watch Out for Liquidity!
Just above the recent high, and before reaching the upper part of the block, there is a clear liquidity pool (marked on the chart). It's highly probable that the price will make a quick, volatile move to "hunt" the stop losses of impatient sellers before initiating its true downward move. Patience here will be the key to success.
Targets and Strategic Trading Plan
This analysis leads to a clear and patient action plan. This is not about selling blindly, but about waiting for the right confirmation.
🎯 Potential Targets:
TP1: Our first target is located at the H4 Block with Inefficiency. Inefficiencies (Fair Value Gaps or FVGs) often act as a magnet for the price, making this an excellent level to take partial profits.
TP2: The final and most ambitious target is the previous low. A break of this level would confirm a full continuation of the bearish trend.
📈 Trading Plan:
Entry: The strategy is to WAIT for the price to enter the Daily Order Block. The entry should only be executed after observing a clear bearish confirmation signal on a lower timeframe (H1/H4), such as an engulfing candle, a rejection pin bar, or a reversal pattern.
Stop Loss (SL): The SL should be placed structurally, above the high that forms after the potential liquidity hunt, to give the trade room to breathe.
Take Profit (TP): A scaled exit strategy is recommended: secure partial profits at TP1, move the SL to Breakeven, and let the rest of the position run towards TP2.
Bitcoin continues to go longBitcoin is trading in a narrow range today, with price movements confined to around 1,000 points, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, BTC continues to find strong buying support near key levels, displaying a classic bottoming formation on the 4-hour chart, accompanied by a bullish MACD divergence signal. The current price has entered a value investment zone, with smart money quietly accumulating positions and rebound momentum building. Traders may consider scaling into long positions in batches.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Bitcoin - Structure in Compression, Silence Before Expansion?⊣
⟁ BTC/USD - BINANCE - (CHART: H4) - (Aug 16, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $118,020.60.
⊣
⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval - (H4):
▦ EMA50 - $118,425.87:
∴ The EMA50 is currently positioned slightly above the active trading price - ($118,020.60), establishing a localized resistance zone, showing that the market is struggling to sustain momentum above this median dynamic level;
∴ In recent sessions, price action fluctuated around EMA50, but failed to reclaim it as stable support, indicating weakness in short-term recovery attempts;
∴ The slope of EMA50 remains almost flat, not strongly ascending, suggesting market indecision and lack of directional strength.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA50 is a resistance barrier, neutral-to-bearish unless reclaimed decisively.
⊢
▦ EMA200 - $116,394.72:
∴ The EMA200, being a long-term stability reference, is below the current market price, acting as structural support for the mid-term;
∴ The wide gap between EMA200 and EMA50 indicates a neutral compression phase — price oscillating between medium and long horizons;
∴ If the market falls back toward EMA200, buyers may attempt defense; a breach would confirm broader weakness in market structure.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA200 is a strong support anchor, still intact, but tested boundaries are plausible.
⊢
▦ TEMA9 - $117,520.39:
∴ TEMA9 is below the current price, serving as immediate dynamic support, often used by short-term traders;
∴ Market bounces in the last sessions respected this fast-moving indicator, giving temporary confidence to bulls;
∴ However, repeated retests weaken its authority, showing fragility in momentum if volume does not sustain.
✴️ Conclusion: TEMA9 is immediate support, fragile, requiring reinforcement by volume.
⊢
▦ HMA21 - $116,919.69:
∴ The HMA21 lies under market value, acting as secondary support, confirming alignment with EMA200 as part of the supportive axis;
∴ Its curve is slightly ascending, signaling a faint bullish rebound in the short horizon;
∴ Alignment below price confirms resilience but also dependency - if price collapses, this level could break swiftly.
✴️ Conclusion: HMA21 is secondary support, dynamic yet vulnerable to volatility.
⊢
▦ SMA21 - $119,371.78:
∴ SMA21 sits above current price, working as resistance, in opposition to the supports listed (HMA21/TEMA9);
∴ This creates a compression corridor: TEMA9 + HMA21 (support) vs SMA21 (resistance);
∴ Market structure indicates stagnation inside a tight channel, waiting for breakout or breakdown.
✴️ Conclusion: SMA21 is resistance, framing the price in a boxed range.
⊢
▦ SuperTrend (10, 1.5) - $119,325.29:
∴ The SuperTrend remains above the actual price, signaling a bearish bias;
∴ Market action is still below its trigger, rejecting short-term bullish confirmation;
∴ Only a sustained breakout above this level could alter the bearish sentiment.
✴️ Conclusion: SuperTrend = Bearish stance remains active.
⊢
▦ BB (21, 2) - Upper: $123,154.36 / Basis: $119,371.78 / Lower: $115,589.21:
∴ Price is compressed between the midline (basis) and lower band, showing weakness;
∴ Recent volatility spikes touched the upper band but were rejected, confirming lack of strength;
∴ The narrowing of bands signals imminent expansion - market preparing for stronger volatility move.
✴️ Conclusion: Bollinger = Compression near lower range, potential breakout ahead.
⊢
▦ StochRSI (3, 3, 21, 9) - K: 44.11 / D: 37.23:
∴ Both K and D lines are mid-range, neither oversold nor overbought, reflecting indecision;
∴ The slight upward crossing indicates a possible rebound attempt, but weak until confirmed by momentum;
∴ Position in neutral zone diminishes conviction - signal could reverse quickly.
✴️ Conclusion: StochRSI suggests fragile recovery, neutral-to-bullish bias.
⊢
▦ Volume (21) - 9 / 85:
∴ Current volume is extremely weak compared to the SMA21, showing low conviction;
∴ This volume drought reduces the probability of sustainable breakouts;
∴ Whales or institutions are not actively engaged at this moment.
✴️ Conclusion: Volume shows lack of strength; market drifting without strong participation.
⊢
▦ MACD (9, 21, 9) - MACD: -170.26 / Signal: -425.48 / Histogram: -595.74:
∴ MACD remains negative, showing bearish underlying pressure;
∴ Histogram is contracting, indicating that bearish momentum is slowing down, but not reversed;
∴ A bullish crossover is still distant, weakening bullish recovery chances in near term.
✴️ Conclusion: MACD = Bearish pressure moderating, no reversal confirmed yet.
⊢
▦ RSI (21, 9) - 43.19:
∴ RSI is below 50, confirming bearish bias;
∴ Position not yet oversold, showing market retains room for further downside;
∴ The flat slope reflects indecision - neither strong selling panic nor buying force.
✴️ Conclusion: RSI = Bearish-neutral, momentum still under equilibrium.
⊢
▦ MFI (21) - 43.19:
∴ MFI mirrors RSI levels, confirming lack of strong inflow or outflow;
∴ Volume-weighted money flow confirms market neutrality, slightly leaning bearish;
∴ No divergence spotted to suggest imminent reversal.
✴️ Conclusion: MFI = Neutral, aligned with RSI weakness.
⊢
▦ OBV (21) - 74.89M:
∴ OBV is flat, not rising in accordance with recent small price upticks, showing lack of buyer confirmation;
∴ Absence of strong accumulation suggests price is rising on weak grounds;
∴ If OBV fails to climb, rallies will likely fail at resistance points.
✴️ Conclusion: OBV confirms weak demand, neutral-bearish stance.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle:
∴ The H4 structure reveals a compressed battlefield: dynamic supports (TEMA9, HMA21, EMA200) try to sustain price above $116K–117K, while layered resistances (EMA50, SMA21, SuperTrend, BB basis) weigh down overhead near $118K–119K;
∴ Volume collapse and flat OBV expose the fragility of bullish attempts, showing lack of participation. RSI and MFI align at ~43, signaling neutrality with bearish tilt. MACD remains negative, albeit moderating, hinting bearish exhaustion rather than reversal;
∴ Thus, BTC/USD stands in tense equilibrium: support corridor anchored near $116K, resistance dome at $119K;
∴ Market awaits volatility ignition, and the Bollinger Band squeeze warns a breakout is imminent;
∴ Without volume, upward attempts risk collapse; with momentum reactivation, resistance layers may fracture.
⊢
𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
∴ The chart reveals not strength, but suspension - Bitcoin hovers between its moving average guardians, caught within corridors of compression where price neither collapses nor ascends with conviction;
∴ EMA50 denies passage above, while EMA200 anchors from below - structure is preserved not by will, but by inertia;
∴ Indicators whisper the same tale: RSI and MFI linger at 43, momentum without fire, money without decisive flow;
∴ MACD stays in the shadows, still negative, showing the bear’s hand loosening but not releasing;
∴ OBV remains flat, silence of accumulation, a desert where no buyer’s army marches;
∴ Bollinger Bands coil tighter, warning of the coming storm - when silence stretches, force prepares.
✴️ Stoic Arcane Conclusion: The market does not yield to hope nor despair, it waits - stillness before expansion. To the disciplined observer, this is not chaos, but structure: a narrowing gate where patience is the true weapon.
⊢
✦ Structure:
∴ The H4 battlefield is confined within a narrow dominion - ($116,000 to $119,500) - where supports (TEMA9, HMA21, EMA200) forge the lower bulwark, and resistances (EMA50, SMA21, SuperTrend, BB Basis) construct the ceiling;
∴ Momentum oscillators (RSI, MFI, StochRSI) hover in neutrality, neither signaling exhaustion nor ignition, mirroring the market’s stoic posture;
∴ MACD remains submerged in negative territory, its histogram contracting, a sign of fading bearish strength but absent bullish conquest;
∴ Volume and OBV betray the truth: demand is hollow, accumulation is absent, and rallies lack the blood of conviction;
∴ Bollinger compression seals the chamber, a tightening coil foretelling release - structure bends, not breaks, awaiting its destined expansion.
✴️ Structural Seal: The architecture is one of suspended energy, a locked formation where silence is not weakness, but the breath before eruption.
⊢
· Cryptorvm Dominvs · MAGISTER ARCANVM · Vox Primordialis ·
· Dominivm Cardo Gyratio Omnivm · Silence precedes the next force. Structure is sacred ·
⊢
You will ask yourself "how did he know Btc would do that"?On Aug 9th I suggested Btc would pump from $112K to at least $121K (green box). That has now been confirmed. I also anticipated that Btc would retrace from there, to either T1 or T2 (Red boxes). That is now confimed and Btc may still go lower. See original chart below.
Simply determining support and reisitance is not enough! I must determine with greater certainty in which direction the asset going (at all times). Will it hit support first or reistance? This makes ALL the difference in trading. I have determined the diection from Aug 9th to go up... And then down from my T1 (green box)...and then up from one of my 2 red boxes.
Now that the 12% chance of a Btc pump without a retrace has been ruled out, the probabilities for my 2 bearish targets have increased accordingly. Now T1 (red) is 28% & T2 is 72%.
I have taken profit at the top and will buy back in at the next low. I am monitoring price action closely and anticpate buying into this next bottom.
May the trends be with you.
Bitcoin Key Holders Turn Neutral Ahead Of Volatility ExplosionBINANCE:BTCUSDT price had shown an upward trend throughout the month, but this momentum faltered in the last 24 hours, with BTC falling to $117,305 . This decline occurred as the price slipped below the established uptrend line, signaling a shift in market sentiment.
If investors maintain their positions during the expected volatility surge, BINANCE:BTCUSDT could stabilize above $117,000. This would open the door for a potential push toward $120,000, turning it into support and allowing further upside movement.
However, if investor sentiment turns bearish and selling increases in response to volatility, BINANCE:BTCUSDT could face a significant drop . In this case, the price may fall through the $115,000 support level, potentially reaching as low as $112,526 . This would wipe out the gains seen in August, invalidating the bullish outlook.
Feeling the charts, forecast for August 16, 2025.
I am engaged in the extrasensory of stock charts, that is, feeling the energy of the future chart, this is a meditative technique, and the sensations are mainly tactile.
Forecast for August 16, 2025, I do not feel strong movements of Bitcoin this Saturday, at the end of the day, I expect a slight increase, the structure of price movements was drawn on the chart...
At the moment, I'm not analyzing the prices, I'm only paying attention to the price movement's impulses. I consider my forecast to be accurate if the outline of the actual chart matches the outline of the chart I've drawn as a forecast, indicating the correct direction and time period of the price movement.
Feeling the charts, forecast for August 16, 2025.
I am engaged in the extrasensory of stock charts, that is, feeling the energy of the future chart, this is a meditative technique, and the sensations are mainly tactile.
Forecast for August 16, 2025, I do not feel strong movements of Bitcoin this Saturday, at the end of the day, I expect a slight increase, the structure of price movements was drawn on the chart...
At the moment, I'm not analyzing the prices, I'm only paying attention to the price movement's impulses. I consider my forecast to be accurate if the outline of the actual chart matches the outline of the chart I've drawn as a forecast, indicating the correct direction and time period of the price movement.
Bitcoin – Beneath the Dual Gate, Volatility Coiled in Silence.⊣
⟁ BTC/USD - BINANCE - (CHART: H1) - (Aug 15, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $117,097.61.
⊣
⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval - (H1):
▦ EMA9 - $117,809.31:
∴ Price trades below EMA9, preserving micro‑bearish control and confirming sellers’ initiative;
∴ The slope is negative, indicating persistent downside inertia rather than mere mean reversion;
∴ First tactical recovery requires candle close above EMA9 with follow‑through, otherwise rebounds are fade‑prone.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA9 is the first gate; below it, bears command intraday flow.
⊢
▦ EMA21 - $118,360.89:
∴ EMA21 sits above price and aligns with BB mid‑band, forming a structural ceiling;
∴ The angle remains down, synchronizing with the broader short‑term trend;
∴ Failure to reclaim EMA21 after testing EMA9 typically resets momentum to the downside.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA21 is the primary ceiling for any rebound attempt.
⊢
▦ VOLUME (21) - 146 / 587:
∴ Background participation is muted outside sell‑offs, signaling weak dip‑buying interest;
∴ Climax bars are associated with down candles, not expansions up;
∴ Without buy‑side expansion, momentum reversals tend to be shallow.
✴️ Conclusion: Energy is bear‑weighted; buyers have not stepped in size.
⊢
▦ BB (21, 2) - $119,636.52 / $118,360.89 / $117,085.27:
∴ Price hovers near the lower band, evidencing pressure and travel along the band;
∴ Bands remain expanded after the drop, encoding elevated realized volatility;
∴ Mid‑band = EMA21, thus a confluence cap on rallies.
✴️ Conclusion: Volatility high; equilibrium at the mid‑band acts as resistance.
⊢
▦ RSI (21, 9) - 33.19 / 37.33:
∴ RSI sub‑40 denotes bearish momentum and risk of trend continuation;
∴ No clean bullish divergence vs. recent lows is visible;
∴ Any bounce from 30–35 must couple with price reclaim of EMA9/21 to matter.
✴️ Conclusion: Momentum weak; relief bounces need validation.
⊢
▦ ATR (21) - 591.97:
∴ ATR elevation reflects wide hourly ranges and unstable micro‑regime;
∴ Expansion followed the breakdown, favoring impulsive moves over drift;
∴ Risk management must assume larger stop distances until contraction resumes.
✴️ Conclusion: Tactical caution-range expansion risk remains.
⊢
▦ MACD (9, 21, 9) - (-146.58 / -405.01 / -551.59):
∴ MACD and Signal are well below zero, confirming bear trend state;
∴ Histogram remains negative, indicating ongoing pressure from sellers;
∴ No confirmed bullish cross—only early flattening attempts.
✴️ Conclusion: Bearish momentum dominant; confirmation for bulls is absent.
⊢
▦ Fibonacci Retracement - (High $124,474.00 / Low $116,803.99):
✦ Fibo Framework - (High/Low defined, bias rules):
∴ While price is below 0.786, the retracement ladder acts as stacked resistance;
∴ Each level demands close + acceptance (multiple candles) to unlock the next;
∴ Rejection at any level implies rotation back to prior support with risk to the swing low.
✴️ Conclusion: Framework is bear‑tilted until 0.786 is reclaimed and held.
⊢
✦ Fibo 0.786 - $118,445.37:
∴ Sits just above price and near EMA21/BB mid‑band, forming a triple confluence cap;
∴ First bullish test must be clean breakout + hold above to prevent immediate fade;
∴ Rejection here typically re‑opens a drive toward $117,085 / $116,804.
✴️ Conclusion: Primary gate; breach converts short‑term bias from survival to recovery.
⊢
✦ Fibo 0.618 - $119,733.93:
∴ Traditional “golden” test where failed rallies often reverse;
∴ If price reaches 0.618 with rising volume + RSI > 45, momentum regime improves;
∴ Rejection here frequently leads to lower‑high structures.
✴️ Conclusion: Momentum checkpoint; acceptance upgrades the bounce to trend‑threatening.
⊢
✦ Fibo 0.500 - $120,639.00:
∴ Marks the mid‑retracement; crossing it often flips narrative from counter‑trend to trend‑repair;
∴ Watch for EMA21 flatten → turn up once 0.5 is held;
∴ Failure after tagging 0.5 usually prints a bull trap.
✴️ Conclusion: Structural pivot—hold above = constructive shift.
⊢
✦ Fibo 0.382 - $121,544.06:
∴ The “no‑man’s land” where sellers often defend to keep macro swing intact;
∴ Requires higher highs/higher lows on intraday to persist;
∴ Confluence with prior supply zones strengthens defense.
✴️ Conclusion: Resistance band; acceptance here signals maturing reversal.
⊢
✦ Fibo 0.236 - $122,663.88:
∴ Late‑stage retracement where profit‑taking on longs is common;
∴ If reached quickly with volume, risk of exhaustion wick increases;
∴ Only strong breadth can push a sustained extension.
✴️ Conclusion: Overhead capstone unless momentum surges.
⊢
✦ Fibo 1.000 (Base) - $116,803.99:
∴ Final defensive line for the swing;
∴ A clean hourly close below exposes extension toward measured‑move targets;
∴ Positive response here needs divergence + reclaim of EMA9 to matter.
✴️ Conclusion: Last bastion; loss invites deeper correction.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle:
∴ The H1 battlefield is etched with a Dual‑Gate Resistance at ($118,360 – $118,445) - (EMA21 + BB mid + Fibo 0.786);
∴ Below it, bears keep initiative; above it, the ladder opens to ($119,734 - $120,639 - $121,544);
∴ Momentum (RSI/MACD) remains bear‑set, and volume does not yet sponsor a reversal;
∴ ATR warns that the next impulse will be forceful: rejection at 0.786 likely revisits ($117,085 - $116,804);
∴ Clean acceptance above 0.786 converts the tape into repair mode, aiming first for 0.618.
⊢
𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
∴ The chart does not plead-it states. Bitcoin stands pressed beneath the Seal of Resistance, forged by EMA21, BB mid-band, and Fibo 0.786, a triple convergence that turns each bullish attempt into trial;
∴ Below this seal, the market breathes in short bursts, oscillating between survival near $117,085 and the abyss at $116,804, while the higher rungs of Fibonacci remain untouched fortresses;
∴ RSI lingers near exhaustion, MACD sunk deep in negative terrain-signs of a mind under weight, yet with latent potential should the first gate break;
∴ Volume’s silence betrays the absence of conviction, while ATR whispers of a coiled force, ready to erupt without warning.
⚖️The Stoic mind perceives no chaos here-only order hidden in compression.
∴ To strike prematurely is to feed the opposing force;
∴ To wait for the breach, with discipline, is to act when the veil lifts;
∴ Thus, the practitioner stands patient, knowing that in markets, as in life, the gate opens only when necessity aligns with strength.
⊢
✦ Structure:
∴ Primary Battlefield: ($118,360 – $118,445) - the Dual-Gate Resistance where EMA21, BB mid-band, and Fibo 0.786 converge into a single fortified wall;
∴ Upper Ladder: ($119,734 -> $120,639 -> $121,544 -> $122,663) - sequential Fibonacci rungs, each a higher plane of contest, demanding proof of momentum before ascension;
∴ Lower Bastions: ($117,085 -> $116,804) - defensive stones at the base of the current swing, where loss would confirm structural surrender;
∴ Momentum State: RSI anchored in bearish terrain, MACD submerged, volume muted - signaling that price remains in a defensive stance;
∴ Volatility Field: ATR expanded, forecasting sudden, decisive thrusts once either the upper or lower gates yield.
✴️ Strategic Frame: The structure is one of compression beneath a fortified ceiling, coiled with the energy to either breach into a recovery ladder or cascade into deeper correction. The next movement will not wander-it will strike.
⊢
· Cryptorvm Dominvs · MAGISTER ARCANVM · Vox Primordialis ·
· Dominivm Cardo Gyratio Omnivm · Silence precedes the next force. Structure is sacred ·
⊢
Why are Whales Moving Bitcoin to Binance? Weekly Whale WatchBINANCE:BTCUSDT price is currently trading at $116,830 after slipping below the key $120,000 level. The price fell from the recent ATH of $124,474 , showing some volatility. Despite this decline, Bitcoin is maintaining support above $119,000, suggesting that the recent dip could be a short-term correction.
In the past 24 hours, Binance has seen a massive increase in BINANCE:BTCUSDT deposits, with 6,060 BTC, worth approximately $722 million , added to the exchange’s balance. This surge primarily comes from whales
Given the mixed market sentiment, BINANCE:BTCUSDT could potentially reclaim $120,000 as a solid support level. If the bulls manage to maintain this level, Bitcoin might be able to recover from the recent dip and push towards $122,000.
However, if selling pressure intensifies, BINANCE:BTCUSDT price may fall through the $117,261 support level . A deeper drop could take the price to $115,000 or lower, which would invalidate the bullish outlook and indicate further market weakness.
BITCOIN PREDICTION: CRITICAL UPDATE (warning) Yello Paradisers! In this video, we are going through high-timeframe, medium-timeframe, and lower-timeframe analysis. This multi-timeframe analysis is important for us to understand the whole context of the market, and that is how we are able to make the best trading decisions as professional traders.
I'm explaining to you that we are on the high-timeframe chart, trading inside of a channel ABC zigzag formation. From an Elliott Wave perspective, we are currently in the C wave, which is a motive wave, and we are creating the smaller secondary wave. We can see a bullish divergence confirmed, and we are waiting for RSI to have a successful bullish reclaim.
I'm updating you about the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level and all of the confluences at around $116,000 and $117,000. From a medium-timeframe perspective, we are updating the Elliott Wave price action development count. I'm sharing with you the contracting triangle. The deviation that happened during the E wave, the confluence of the $116,000 and $117,000, and truly sharing with you how important this demand zone area really is.
Then we are moving our attention to low time frame analysis where I share with you the most probable price action development in the upcoming days, weeks, and months.
Paradisers! Keep in mind to trade only with a proper professional trading strategy. Wait for confirmations. Play with tactics. This is the only way you can be long-term profitable.
Remember, don’t trade without confirmations. Wait for them before creating a trade. Be disciplined, patient, and emotionally controlled. Only trade the highest probability setups with the greatest risk to reward ratio. This will ensure that you become a long-term profitable professional trader.
Don't be a gambler. Don't try to get rich quick. Make sure that your trading is professionally based on proper strategies and trade tactics.
Bitcoin - Post-Breakout Compression at the Gate of Fibo - 0.786.⊣
⟁ BTC/USD - BINANCE - (CHART: 1D) - (Aug 14, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $118,876.69.
⊣
⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval - (1D):
▦ EMA9 - $118,643.08:
∴ Price has pulled back toward the EMA9 after peaking at the recent (ATH of $123,731.21);
∴ Current positioning above EMA21 and EMA50 keeps the short-term trend intact despite the intraday retracement;
∴ EMA9 slope remains positive, signaling residual bullish momentum.
✴️ Conclusion: Short-term dynamic support intact; breach would increase pressure toward EMA21.
⊢
▦ EMA21 - $117,392.05:
∴ Serves as the first significant swing-support layer in the daily structure;
∴ Distance between EMA9 and EMA21 is narrowing due to today’s sell-off;
∴ Sustained closes below EMA21 would threaten the current daily uptrend.
✴️ Conclusion: Structural pivot for sustaining the bullish daily cycle.
⊢
▦ EMA50 - $114,650.23:
∴ Represents medium-term equilibrium and major market memory zone;
∴ Considerable gap between price and EMA50 indicates an extended run from equilibrium;
∴ A deeper retracement could naturally gravitate toward this zone for rebalancing.
✴️ Conclusion: Last defensive bastion before mid-term trend deterioration.
⊢
▦ BB (21, 2) - Upper: 121,847.18 / Basis: 117,060.71 / Lower: 112,274.25:
∴ Price reached the upper band during the ATH spike, triggering volatility expansion;
∴ Retraction from the upper band indicates profit-taking pressure;
∴ Basis line aligns closely with EMA21, reinforcing its importance as structural midline support.
✴️ Conclusion: Current movement reflects band rejection; volatility contraction likely if basis holds.
⊢
▦ Volume (21) - Current: 397 / MA: 317:
∴ Above-average daily volume during ATH session confirms real participation;
∴ Today’s sell-side volume surge shows immediate counterforce;
∴ Sustained high volume in both directions could precede a range formation.
✴️ Conclusion: Market is in active price discovery with heightened participation.
⊢
▦ RSI (21, 9) - RSI: 55.87 / Signal: 57.61:
∴ RSI cooled off from near overbought levels (above 70) toward midline;
∴ Positive divergence versus recent price pullback not yet visible;
∴ Momentum has weakened but remains in bullish territory above 50.
✴️ Conclusion: Momentum is consolidating; failure to hold 50 will shift control to sellers.
⊢
▦ MACD (9, 21, 9) - MACD: 548.09 / Signal: 702.94 / Histogram: 1,251.03:
∴ MACD histogram contracting, indicating fading bullish impulse;
∴ Cross-over risk emerging if current trajectory persists;
∴ Still in positive zone, showing bulls have residual control.
✴️ Conclusion: Bullish momentum waning; MACD line needs resurgence to avoid daily cross-down.
⊢
▦ ADX (21, 9) - 27.43:
∴ ADX below 30 suggests trend strength is moderate;
∴ Rising slope in recent days indicates a possible re-acceleration attempt;
∴ Low-to-mid readings show this ATH push lacked extreme trend force.
✴️ Conclusion: Trend strength improving but not yet at dominant breakout levels.
⊢
▦ MFI (21) - 41.60:
∴ MFI pulled back sharply from high 70s toward neutral zone;
∴ Indicates capital outflow matching the retracement in price;
∴ Still above oversold threshold, leaving room for either renewed inflow or deeper drawdown.
✴️ Conclusion: Liquidity pressure present; directional bias still undecided.
⊢
▦ Fibonacci Retracement - (from $98,385.45 to $123,731.21):
∴ 0.0: 98,385.45 – cycle origin;
∴ 0.236: 104,367.05 – minor support;
∴ 0.382: 108,067.33 – intermediate support;
∴ 0.500: 111,068.53 – psychological & technical balance;
∴ 0.618: 114,049.13 – golden retracement zone;
∴ 0.786: 118,307.22 – rejection point in current candle;
∴ 1.000: 123,731.21 – ATH resistance;
∴ 1.618: 139,394.89 – next major extension target.
✴️ Conclusion: Price reaction at 0.786 signals a possible retracement cascade unless recovered.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle:
∴ The daily chart reveals a market in the aftermath of a sharp thrust to ATH, now facing immediate rejection at the Bollinger upper band and (Fibo - 0.786);
∴ EMA structure remains bullish but compression between EMA9 and EMA21 signals a vulnerability window;
∴ Momentum (RSI, MACD) is losing altitude, while trend force (ADX) is only moderately engaged; ∴ Liquidity flow (MFI) shows sellers matching buyer aggression post-ATH;
∴ The golden retracement at 0.618 aligns with EMA50 as a potential deeper support target if selling accelerates. Bulls must reclaim (Fibo - 0.786) quickly to preserve the breakout narrative.
⊢
𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
∴ The chart speaks in tempered cadence - the market reached upward into new territory, only to feel the weight of its own ascent pressing back;
∴ Structure remains poised, with EMA lines still aligned to the north, yet their narrowing gap whispers of momentum’s fatigue;
∴ Momentum and liquidity indicators agree in their caution: the thrust was bold, but the grip on this altitude is not yet certain;
∴ (Fibo - 0.786) stands as the immediate gatekeeper - a threshold where either conviction renews or gravity takes its due;
∴ Trend force is not absent, but it is not yet the roar of inevitability; the ADX reads not triumph, but preparation;
∴ Inflows and volume affirm the battle is active, not concluded - the field is contested, not surrendered.
⚖️ The Stoic mind sees in this neither triumph nor defeat, but the natural stillness between impulse and outcome - a moment to fortify structure, for in patience the stronger hand prevails.
⊢
✦ Structure holds, yet breathes caution.
▦ This is a post-breakout compression - the market testing its new heights while equilibrium forces gather for the next decisive move.
⊢
· Cryptorvm Dominvs · MAGISTER ARCANVM · Vox Primordialis ·
· Dominivm Cardo Gyratio Omnivm · Silence precedes the next force. Structure is sacred ·
⊢
BTC Accumulates and Adjusts Slightly💎 BTC WEEKEND PLAN UPDATE (15/08)
BTC Analysis After PPI
Trading Highlights
After the PPI release, BTC completed its bullish wave and reached a peak of 123.2K, exactly at the 2.618 Fibonacci Extension level – a strong resistance zone that had been anticipated.
Afterward, the price sharply reversed, dropping to the 117K support area – aligning with the main uptrend line and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the most recent bullish wave → this was where we successfully executed a bottom-picking buy.
Current Price Action
The price is now recovering from 117K toward the 120.7K – 121K resistance area (a confluence of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, a previous supply zone, and the H4 EMA).
The short-term trend remains a technical rebound after a sharp drop, with no confirmed sustained bullish reversal yet.
Scenarios & Next Trend
• Main Scenario: Price rebounds to 120.7K – 121K → faces selling pressure → sharply reverses downward following a corrective wave toward 116K – 115K (strong support).
• Alternative Scenario: If 121K is broken with high volume, BTC could revisit the 122.9K – 123.2K zone.
Key Levels
• Resistance: 120.7K – 121K / 122.9K – 123.2K
• Support: 117K / 116K – 115K”
BTC Daily Recap & Game Plan – 15.08.2025BTC Daily Recap & Game Plan – 15.08.2025
📊 Market Sentiment
Overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by expectations of a 0.25% rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting. A weakening USD and increasing global risk appetite are creating favorable conditions for further upside in crypto assets.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price has started retracing into the daily swing level and the 0.5 Fibonacci zone, as anticipated in my previous Bitcoin daily update post (linked in the attachment, please check).
We have now seen a 1H break of structure following liquidity grabs.
📌 Game Plan
I will be looking for an entry around the $118,800 level, as there is a 1H demand zone that could support a move higher.
📋 Trade Management
Entry: $118,800
SL: $117,000
TP: $121,600
💬 Like, follow, and comment if you find this setup valuable!
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions.
BTC/USDT: Bullish Momentum and Key Support LevelsUptrend Channel: The price is trading within an ascending channel, denoted by two parallel black trendlines. This suggests a bullish trend is in play.
Support and Resistance:
A significant support zone is identified between approximately 112,000 and 114,000 USDT.
A weak supply zone is marked around 118,000 USDT. The price has recently tested this area and found some support.
A strong resistance level is visible at approximately 124,564.86 USDT.
Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52, 26): The price is currently trading above the cloud, indicating a bullish sentiment. The cloud itself appears to be thin and slightly bullish, suggesting potential for continued upward movement.
RSI Strategy (14, 30, 70): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is used as a strategy, with a "RSILE" signal (likely "RSI Low Entry") marked with a "+2" and a red arrow, suggesting a potential buy signal near the support zone in early August. A "-2" signal is marked near the top of the channel, indicating a potential overbought condition or reversal signal.
Price Action and Projections:
The price recently experienced a sharp decline from the upper trendline, indicating profit-taking or resistance at that level.
The price is currently near the lower trendline and the "weak supply zone," which appears to be acting as support.
A potential future price path is drawn with a blue arrow, suggesting that the price may consolidate or bounce off the current support area and move higher towards the upper boundary of the channel.
Another potential path is drawn with a red arrow, showing a possible further drop towards the lower trendline before a bounce.
Feeling the charts, forecast for August 15, 2025.
I am engaged in the extrasensory of stock charts, that is, feeling the energy of the future chart, this is a meditative technique, and the sensations are mainly tactile.
Forecast for August 15, 2025, I believe that the first half of the day will be upward, as a correction of today's fall, in the second half of the day I expect a significant downward movement.
At the moment, I do not analyze the prices, only pay attention to the price movement impulses. I consider my forecast to be good if the outline of the real chart matches the outline of the chart I drew as a forecast, meaning that the direction and time period of the price movement are correctly indicated.
Feeling the charts, forecast for August 15, 2025.
I am engaged in the extrasensory of stock charts, that is, feeling the energy of the future chart, this is a meditative technique, and the sensations are mainly tactile.
Forecast for August 15, 2025, I believe that the first half of the day will be upward, as a correction of today's fall, in the second half of the day I expect a significant downward movement.
At the moment, I do not analyze the prices, only pay attention to the price movement impulses. I consider my forecast to be good if the outline of the real chart matches the outline of the chart I drew as a forecast, meaning that the direction and time period of the price movement are correctly indicated.
$BTC is repeating history, and it’s doing it with precision.CRYPTOCAP:BTC is repeating history, and it’s doing it with precision. 📈
In the last cycle, it took Bitcoin 1,044 days to move from the bear market bottom to a new all-time high. This cycle is on the same timeline, and we’re now well into that phase.
Price is staying inside the long-term rising channel, and momentum is building. If this continues, a macro top could form between late October and early November, maybe even by the first week of October if the rally speeds up.
The RSI is also climbing toward the same overbought levels seen before past tops. The cycle pattern isn’t random.
It’s the guide.






















