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The Great Convergence: End of the Everything BubbleThe Great Convergence: Why Q4 2025 May Mark the End of the Everything Bubble A Multi-Asset Analysis of Bitcoin, S&P 500, and Gold at Critical Junctures Hello Traders, After analyzing 25 years of market data across three major financial crises, I've identified a dangerous convergence of signals suggesting we're approaching a significant market inflection point. The simultaneous peaks in IG:BITCOIN (~$124K), SP:SPX (6,700), and TVC:GOLD ($3,790) combined with deteriorating macroeconomic indicators mirror patterns that preceded both the 2000 and 2008 crises. Key Thesis: We are potentially entering a liquidity crisis that could result in a 30-50% correction across risk assets by Q4 2026. Part I: The Bitcoin Halving Cycle - End of the Fourth Epoch Historical Pattern Recognition CRYPTO:BTCUSD price action has followed a remarkably consistent 4-year cycle tied to its halving events: 2012 Halving → 2013 Peak (1 year delay): +8,000% rise, -85% crash 2016 Halving → 2017 Peak (1.5 years delay): +2,800% rise, -84% crash 2020 Halving → 2021 Peak (1.5 years delay): +700% rise, -77% crash 2024 Halving → 2025 Peak (1.5 years delay): +450% rise, -75% crash projected Current Technical Indicators RSI Divergence: Weekly RSI showing lower highs while price makes higher highs - classic exhaustion signal present at 2013, 2021 previous cycle tops. Volume Profile: Declining volume on recent rallies indicates weakening conviction On-chain Metrics: Long-term holder distribution accelerating, similar to previous cycle tops Price Targets Current Level: $109,498 Proposed Peak: $124,000 (By halving cycle theory this was fulfilled last month August) Initial Support: $69,000 (previous cycle ATH) Crisis Target: $25,000-30,000 (75% drawdown from peak by Q6 2026) Part II: The Macro Crisis Trigger - SPX SP:SPX / Unemployment Rate ECONOMICS:USUR / Fed Rate Correlation ECONOMICS:USINTR The Historical Precedent Every major crisis follows a predictable sequence: 2000 Dot-Com Bubble: CBOE:SPX at ATH (1,550) ✓ Unemployment begins rising from 3.9% ✓ Fed initiates rate cuts ✓ → 49% crash over 2.5 years 2008 Financial Crisis: TVC:SPX at ATH (1,576) ✓ Unemployment rises from 4.4% ✓ Fed cuts rates aggressively ✓ → 57% crash over 1.5 years 2025 AI/Everything Bubble: TVC:SPX at ATH (6,700) ✓ Unemployment rising from 3.4% ✓ Fed just initiated cuts (Sept 2025) ✓ → Projected 35-45% correction over 1.5 years The Unemployment-Rate Cut Death Cross Since 1970, whenever the Fed has cut rates while unemployment is rising from cycle lows: 12/12 times resulted in recession within 12 months Average equity drawdown: 35% Average duration: 18 months Current Labor Market Dynamics - The AI Disruption Factor Unlike previous cycles, we face structural unemployment pressure from AI adoption: Customer service: 2M jobs at risk Software development: 500K jobs transitioning Logistics/Transport: 3M jobs being automated Administrative: 4M jobs under pressure This isn't temporary cyclical unemployment - it's structural displacement requiring economic reorganization. Part III: Gold's Crisis Pattern - The Liquidation Before the Flight Historical TVC:GOLD Behavior in Crisis Contrary to popular belief, FX:XAUUSD can and does suffer fast flushes during systemic liquidity panics despite its long-term hedge role; with gold near ATH, combined liquidity and profit-taking risk could produce a 15–25% correction ahead of any later safe-haven rally: 2000 Crisis: Pre-crisis peak: $326 Initial drop: -21% Bottom-to-recovery: +650% over 11 years 2008 Crisis: Pre-crisis peak: $1,033 Initial drop: -34% Bottom-to-recovery: +180% over 3 years Covid-19 Pandemic: Pre-pandemic peak: $1,696 Initial drop: -15% Bottom-to-recovery: +43% over 2 years and 160% over 5 years Some will point to 2020, when gold rallied during the COVID crash. But that was a unique exogenous shock: the selloff lasted only weeks before unprecedented stimulus and collapsing real yields drove gold to new highs. In contrast, financial‑system crises like 2000 and 2008 forced gold into a year‑long correction before its hedge role reasserted. The 2025 setup looks far closer to those financial crises than to 2020’s pandemic shock. 2025 Projection: Current peak: $3,790 Expected initial drop: -20 to -25% Target bottom: $3,000-$2,800 Long-term recovery target: $6,500+ by 2030 Why Gold Falls Initially During liquidity crises, investors sell everything to meet margin calls and raise cash - even safe havens. Only after the acute phase does gold fulfill its hedge role. Part IV: The Convergence - Why This Time Is Particularly Dangerous Unique Risk Factors in 2025 1. Unprecedented Valuations Across All Assets Total global asset values: $450 trillion (4.5x global GDP) Buffett Indicator: 195% (highest ever) Shiller CAPE: 38 (higher than 1929) 2. Leverage and Derivatives Total derivatives notional: $700 trillion Margin debt: $935 billion (record high) Corporate debt/GDP: 85% (record high) 3. Geopolitical Tensions Active conflicts affecting supply chains De-dollarization accelerating Energy market fragmentation 4. Cryptocurrency Systemic Risk $2.5 trillion COINBASE:BTCUSD and over $4T gross crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL asset class that didn't exist in 2008 Interconnected with traditional finance via ETFs Untested in true liquidity crisis Part V: The Three-Stage Crisis Model Stage 1: The Warning Shot (Now - Q4 2025) Timeline: Next 1-3 months Characteristics: Deteriorating breadth (fewer stocks making highs) Defensive rotation begins TVC:VIX creeping higher First 10% correction dismissed as "healthy" Stage 2: The Liquidity Cascade (Q4 2025 - Q2 2026) Timeline: 6-9 months Characteristics: Multiple failed rallies "Buy the dip" mentality breaks Margin calls cascade All correlations go to 1 Targets: TVC:SPX : 5,000-5,500 CRYPTO:BTCUSD : $50,000-70,000 TVC:GOLD : $2,200-2,400 Stage 3: Capitulation and Reset (Q2 2026 - Q4 2026) Timeline: 6-12 months Characteristics: Forced selling exhaustion Government intervention Market clearing prices reached Final Targets: TVC:SPX : 3,700-4,500 CRYPTO:BTCUSD : $25,000-35,000 TVC:GOLD : Begins new bull market from $2,800 My Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Current Risk Asset Exposure: Reduce to 30% of portfolio Cash: 50% Precious Metals (Physical): 10% Strategic Shorts: 10% (via puts and/or inverse ETFs) Key Indicators to Monitor Weekly Unemployment Claims: ECONOMICS:USUR Sustained moves above 250K Credit Spreads: HYG/TLT ratio breaking below 4.5 Dollar Strength: TVC:DXY above 110 signals global stress IG:BITCOIN Dominance: Below 45% indicates alt-coin capitulation TVC:VIX Term Structure: Inversion signals immediate stress Invalidation Scenarios This bearish thesis would be invalidated if: Unemployment reverses below 4% Fed pivots to QE without crisis Fiscal stimulus exceeds $2 trillion AI productivity gains offset job losses faster than expected Conclusion: Probability-Weighted Scenarios Based on historical precedent and current conditions, I assign the following probabilities: 60% Probability: Significant correction (20-30% drawdown) beginning Q4 2025 25% Probability: Major crisis (40-50% drawdown) rivaling 2008 15% Probability: Continued melt-up through 2026 (Fed intervention success) The risk/reward severely favors defensive positioning. After a 15-year bull market across all assets, the convergence of deteriorating fundamentals, extreme valuations, and historical crisis patterns suggests we're approaching a critical inflection point. Remember: Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. This analysis presents probabilities , not certainties. Always manage risk appropriately and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Follow for updates as this thesis develops. Key milestones to watch: October NFP report November FOMC meeting Q4 earnings season Year-end positioning
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by niclaxfx
12
BTC Possible Scenarios for the WeekPossible Scenarios for the Week Bullish scenario: BTC holds support at $110,000, breaks through $120,000, and heads toward $125,000-$130,000. Sideways/consolidation: Movement between $110,000 and $120,000 without a clear direction. Bearish scenario: Break below $110,000 — test of $105,000 and below. Risks and factors to monitor Fed policy and rate announcements can significantly influence the trend (as a driver for the USD). Trading volumes: Weak volumes during breakouts may be false. US macroeconomics, inflation, geopolitics — increased tensions could trigger volatility.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by Trade_Hive_Signals
BTCUSD Short/Sell SignalBitcoin (BTC/USD) – Tactical Short/Sell Positioning Framework From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently presenting a compelling short-side opportunity as the structure unfolds. After multiple failed attempts to sustain momentum above the $110,000 handle, price action has carved out a sequence of lower highs and retests of the same horizontal zone, a classic sign of weakening bullish conviction and potential distribution at elevated levels. The current chart reveals several critical dynamics: 1. Stop-Loss Placement (Risk Management Discipline) A prudent protective stop (SL) I have set at $112,800, just above recent resistance. This ensures adverse upside volatility is capped while preserving favorable risk-to-reward asymmetry. 2. Initial Breakdown Trigger Bitcoin’s repeated interactions with the 200-day moving average highlight the significance of this level as both psychological and structural support. A clean break beneath it could catalyze accelerated downside flows, inviting systematic selling and liquidations. 3. Downside Targets (Profit Objectives) Take Profit 1 (TP1): $100,070 This marks the first tactical support level, aligning with prior consolidation and offering a conservative initial profit capture. Take Profit 2 (TP2): $89,566 A more ambitious level, representing the mid-range support where prior accumulation took place. A breach of this zone would likely confirm a broader bearish continuation pattern. Take Profit 3 (TP3): $76,193 The ultimate downside objective in this framework, corresponding to deep structural support. Achieving this would imply a full retracement of the bullish leg initiated earlier in the year. 4. Strategic Interpretation This sequence of measured downside targets aligns with a tiered scaling-out methodology, ensuring that profits are progressively locked in as price declines. Such an approach maximizes capital efficiency while allowing flexibility to ride the broader bearish trend should momentum persist. My Conclusion The technical confluence of repeated resistance rejection, weakening market structure, and clear downside liquidity targets positions Bitcoin as a sophisticated short candidate at current levels. Risk is well-contained above $112,800, while downside projections toward $100K, $89.5K, and ultimately $76K create a compelling asymmetric opportunity.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by KingTraderFX
1
BTC SCENARIOS TODAY | BTCUSD BEARISH TREND | SEP.271. Main Trend The market is still in a downtrend (clear bearish trendline + multiple BOS to the downside). Current moves are just retracements within the bearish trend. 2. Key Zones Sell Zone (priority – trend-following): 110,200 – 110,800 (confluence of FVG + Fib 0.5–0.618). If price retraces here, look for short setups. SL: above 111,200. TP1: 109,000. TP2: 108,200 (nearest support). Buy Zone (countertrend – higher risk): 108,000 – 108,500 (strong support with previous bullish reaction). Only consider short-term buys if a clear bullish confirmation appears. TP: 109,500 – 110,000. SL: below 107,700. 3. Scenarios Most likely: Price pulls back to 110,200 – 110,800 → rejection → short opportunity. If 108,000 breaks: Downtrend continues, potential extension toward 106,500. If strong breakout above 111,200: Market may form a major CHoCH, shifting bias to bullish. 👉 Summary: Main strategy: Sell at 110,200 – 110,800. Alternative strategy: Short-term buy at 108,000 – 108,500.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn109714577
BTCUSDT (H1) – Trading ScenariosScenario 1 – Rebound from Demand Zone The demand area at 108,500 – 108,700 remains the strongest short-term support. If bullish reversal patterns (Pin Bar, Bullish Engulfing) form here with confirming volume, a rebound is likely. Trade Setup: Enter long around 108,600 – 108,700, targeting 109,800 (PoC) as the first objective, and 111,900 – 112,100 (VAH) as the second. Stop Loss: Below 108,300. Scenario 2 – Consolidation around PoC The PoC area at 109,400 – 110,200 represents the equilibrium zone where price may consolidate. In this case, short-term scalping strategies can be applied: buying near the lower bound (109,400) and selling near the upper bound (110,200). Take Profit: Quick targets of 30–50 USD. Stop Loss: 0.3–0.5%, depending on position sizing. Scenario 3 – Breakout above VAH A decisive close above the 111,900 – 112,100 (VAH) zone would confirm bullish continuation. This breakout would likely attract momentum buyers and trigger stop orders. Trade Setup: Place buy stops at 112,150 – 112,200, aiming for 112,800 as the first target and 113,500 (liquidity zone above) as the second. Stop Loss: If price falls back below 111,700. Scenario 4 – Breakdown of Demand Zone If price closes firmly below 108,500 with high volume, it signals bearish continuation. Such a breakdown opens the path to lower liquidity levels. Trade Setup: Enter short via sell stops at 108,450 – 108,500. Targets: 107,800 initially, followed by 106,500. Stop Loss: Above 108,900. ✅ Summary Bullish setups: Buy from 108,600 – 108,700 (Demand Zone) or on breakout above 112,100. Bearish setups: Sell if 108,500 breaks, or look for rejection signals near 113,000.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn109713852
BTCUSD – Short-term Downward Channel.....BTCUSD – Short-term Downward Channel, Accumulation Before a Potential Rally Good day traders, On the H4 timeframe, BTC is moving within a short-term descending channel. After testing a strong support level, selling pressure has started to ease. That said, the 107.4k zone has yet to be retested, and it is quite likely the price will revisit this level once again. Technical Outlook Over the past week, BTC has traded in a highly technical manner – with clear ranges, precise reversal points, and a sustained channel structure. Key Support: around 107.4k, coinciding with the Long Entry Zone. Short-term Resistance: 110k – 111k, an area where price has frequently reacted during recovery moves. Fundamental Perspective From a fundamental standpoint, there are currently few factors pointing to a deeper decline in BTC. Furthermore, historical patterns suggest that October is often a month where BTC and the wider crypto market tend to recover. This underpins the likelihood of a strong rebound once support has been fully tested. Trading Scenarios Short towards support Entry: 110.3k SL: 110.8k TP: 109k – 107.6k Long at strong support Entry: 107.4k SL: 106.8k TP:Strong reaction: hold the trade, adjust SL to breakeven, and aim for higher levels in line with the broader uptrend. Weak reaction: close around 109k for a short-term gain. Conclusion Short-term: preference is to look for short opportunities near 110.3k, targeting a move back towards support. Medium-term: watch for long entries around 107.4k, with the expectation that BTC could resume an upward phase into October. Risk Management Adhering to stop-losses is essential, particularly for longs at support, as this is the pivotal level that may determine BTC’s next direction. This represents my personal outlook on BTC heading into the weekend. Please take it as a reference and adapt it to your own strategy. 👉 Follow me to share scenarios and receive the quickest updates when price structure shifts.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
BITCOIN SIGNAL: PROBABILITIES SHOWING THIS NOW!! (careful) Yello Paradisers! Enjoy the video! And Paradisers! Keep in mind to trade only with a proper professional trading strategy. Wait for confirmations. Play with tactics. This is the only way you can be long-term profitable. Remember, don’t trade without confirmations. Wait for them before creating a trade. Be disciplined, patient, and emotionally controlled. Only trade the highest probability setups with the greatest risk to reward ratio. This will ensure that you become a long-term profitable professional trader. Don't be a gambler. Don't try to get rich quick. Make sure that your trading is professionally based on proper strategies and trade tactics.
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
3
BTC 110K IS A NEW UPTREND FOR LOW TIME FRAME UPDATE 26/09/2025BTC/USDT Update On the low time frame, BTC is still in a breakdown structure, trading around 109.5K – 109.7K. However, the market is now approaching a key reversal zone where a new uptrend could start. Key levels: 110K → first confirmation level. A strong reclaim and close above this would be the first signal for a potential uptrend after more than a day under pressure. 113,296 – 113,892 → main trend resistance zone. Only a breakout and confirmation above this range would flip the structure fully bullish again. Upside scenario: A move back above 110K confirms low time frame strength, opening the path to test 113K+. Downside risk: Failure to reclaim 110K keeps BTC under bearish momentum, with risk of continuation toward 108K or lower. 📌 Summary BTC remains in breakdown mode but is close to reversal territory. Above 110K → first low time frame uptrend confirmation. Above 113K+ → stronger trend reversal back into bullish cycle. Below 110K → downside risk stays active.
Long
by SatochiTrader
1
BTC 1H: Selling pressure remains dominant.1. Trend Context The short-term structure remains bearish, with the price trading below the EMA. After breaking through the 111,200 – 112,000 zone, the market is forming a small correction. 2. Key Levels Nearest Resistance: 110,700 – 111,800. Important zone to watch during this correction. Main Support (Demand Zone): 108,000 – 108,500. Next target if the downtrend continues. 3. Scenario Key Scenario : Currently, an uptrend line has been formed, indicating a slight recovery after the previous sharp decline. Wait for the EMA to move closer to the price and form a momentum accumulation zone, after which a first breakout through the uptrend line will appear. Alternative scenario : If BTC sustains recovery to 110,700, sell-off at this level could be considered. Please like and comment to support our traders. Your feedback motivates us to produce more analysis in the future 🙏✨
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
DeGRAM | BTCUSD will retest the $106900 level📊 Technical Analysis ● BTC/USD rejected dynamic resistance and broke lower within the falling channel, confirming short-term bearish momentum. ● The price targets the 106,900 support zone, with continued pressure from lower highs and strong resistance near 124,000. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Bitcoin is weighed down by risk-off sentiment as U.S. yields rise, while weaker liquidity and stronger dollar outlook add to downside pressure. ✨ Summary BTC/USD remains under dynamic resistance, targeting 106,900 support as bearish momentum dominates. Short-term outlook stays negative unless 114,000 is reclaimed. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
1
BTC Breakdown: Watching 112.6K-113.5K for Rejection Toward 109kHello guys! Trend Structure: The price was moving in a clear ascending channel, but recently broke down below the lower boundary with strong bearish momentum. This confirms a structural shift from bullish to bearish sentiment. Current Price Action: After the breakdown, BTC attempted a relief rally but is now struggling around the 112,682 – 113,581 resistance zone (marked in blue). This area was previously support inside the channel and is now acting as resistance (role reversal). Scenarios (Entries): Rejection at 112,682 zone: If BTC fails to break above this resistance, sellers could step in and push the price lower. A clean rejection here would open the way toward 109,884 (next major support). Deeper pullback to 113,581: If bulls manage to push higher, the 113,581 level becomes the last line of resistance. A rejection here would be a high-probability short entry, also targeting 109,884. Target Zone: Both rejection scenarios point to 109,884 as the key downside target. A break below that level would increase bearish momentum toward 108,000 and possibly lower.
Short
by melikatrader94
28
BITCOIN, BITCOIN DOMINANCE, ETHEREUM ANALYSIS 9-14-25Bitcoin has done a nice pullback from the initial sell off from the all time high and found a good support on the 21 EMA on the weekly chart. From the 21 EMA on the weekly chart it's now at a fib resistance level of 0.5 and could potential push up to the 0.618 fib level( 118k) otherwise my expectation is that the pullback is done and another sell off is likely to send price done to the 200 EMA on the daily chart or potential target of $105,530 in the coming week. Ethereum is also struggling at the 2021 resistance high and more likely to pullback to the 0.382 level ($3,823) before it's continuation to higher high breakout of the 2021 resistance level. BTC dominance is still in a strong down trend but quite oversold and likely to bounce up a little to the 58% level before continuation of the down trend. I think BTC. Dominance will ultimately reach a bearish Pennant Target of about 55% before a potential reversal. Thank you for reviewing my analysis and don't hesitated to share your thoughts in the comments section. cheers and I wish you the best of trades this week.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by RICHINVESTOR
BTCUSD update May 22nd, 2025I have returned and here is my updated chart. I'm such a perfectionist sometimes when it comes to lines that it takes my hours to get them exactly how I envision. To start off, yes I am bullish on Bitcoin and believe that this cycle hasn't ended yet but I will admit that I think the end of it is closer than the beginning. With that being said, I will not disappear when the bear market starts, I will simply make updates and try to catch the bottom like I did in the past. So far I am going with history and my bottom target is above 66,800 and I expect the floor to fizzle out around 71-73k; if it ends up being higher than that, great! Overall this idea is just an update for my own personal records and my prediction is based on what has happen that last time this pattern was brought to us. Stay safe out there, happy trading, and as always--Cheers!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by RetiredNovice
Bitcoin Price Analysis and PredictionIn my opinion, $124k was the highest price BINANCE:BTCUSD would see in this cycle, and the downtrend has started a long time ago. The colored dots you see on the chart represent the main pivots of the weekly candles that were forming the bullish structure. Now we are seeing this structure being broken one after the other. You can see the key/legend for the colored dots on the chart. Current Situation Bitcoin broke the first weekly candle's Higher Low (HL) on August 22nd. Since then, we've seen a Lower Low (LL) and a Lower High (LH) on the weekly chart. Now, the price is moving back towards that LL to break this LOW and form a new LL. Last time, we saw good support at $107K and this area could be a support zone this time as well. However, the bearish structure has formed, and we will likely only face temporary reactions. In this area, we will either see the price range or a break of support and the start of a larger trend towards $85k. Please note that this is just my opinion and it could be completely wrong. Even if it is correct, it might take a long time, or perhaps we'll move towards it with a sharp move!
by Madoir
#BTC/USDT THE ONLY BITCOIN CHART YOU NEED!BTC : Almost There! BTC is currently following the trajectory shown in my last chart. It took some time, but it’s playing out exactly as expected. Sooner or later, a bounce is coming — there’s no reason to panic unless we break below $103.5K, which is the key support level. You need to understand that only when money moves out of BTC and big-cap alts will THE MID AND THE SMALL CAPS will have their time to shine. And sooner or later, you'll realise all this happened for good if you played it right. Even if not, many opportunities are coming ahead. You’ll see this happen soon. MY MESSAGE TO YOU ALL: If you've been in crypto for a few years, you know this moment: it’s when the market is on the brink of a big move. Be patient, it won’t happen overnight, but sooner or later, it will. If you're currently in the red, take it as a lesson. It happens to the best of us. I've had four positions stopped out, too. It could have been worse if I hadn’t had a STOP LOSS in place. The silver lining? I can re-enter at a better price. A lesson I’ve learned over the years: STOP LOSS is a life-saver. Stay strong and don’t give up right before the big opportunity we’ve all been waiting for. Opportunities are ahead, manage your risks and remember to take a break, touch some grass. I’m with you. I'll drop more charts shortly. Stay strong, folks. WAGMI! Do hit the like button, and if you have any doubts, questions, or chart requests, drop them in the comments. Thank you #PEACE
by Cryptorphic
9