BITCOIN The complete Cycle mapping. Will you miss out on this?This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame. The current and past Cycles have been classified into Bull (green Channel) and Bear (red Channel). With an (unorthodox) use of the Pitchfan we identified the key trend-lines that have historically shaped both Bull and Bear Cycles and might continue to do so in the future.
The recent Bear Cycle has been driven by the 0.7 Pitchfan F (dotted). The new Bull Cycle should evolve around the 1.0 PF (solid blue) as the last two have mostly traded below their respective lines but peaked exactly after hitting them. This is of particular interest to us as the 1.0 (Bull Cycle) blue line leads to the 0.8 (Bear Cycle) orange line. Long-term investors should consider their crossing as the High of the next Bull Cycle may form there.
As to when to buy? Well where couldn't be a better time than now. The recent FTX low has been 1428 days since the bottom of the 2018 Bear Cycle, which is the exact same time as it took itself from the previous (2014) Cycle. Moreover the STOCH RSI is at the level where BTC historically bottomed and started the new Bull Cycle.
Do you think this is a unique long-term buy opportunity for Bitcoin and if so can the next top be near 200k? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN The RSI is the key and is hanging from a thread.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1D time-frame is consolidating while the RSI just bounced on its Higher Lows trend-line that started after the FTX crash (November 09). This is as tight as it can get in terms of a Support as throughout the whole year, when the RSI broke below its Higher Lows, the price dropped aggressively (red zones).
Right now we are on a hold or break point. Do you think this pattern will continue and a break below the RSI Higher Lows will deliver a new drop of at least -26% (that would push the price to around 13500) or this time is different?
Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Has a mountain to climb but theres light down the tunnelIndeed Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is far from being at its best shape as not onlt was it rejected last week on the 2D MA50 (blue trend-line) but the RSI did so also on a Resistance Zone holding since last March.
The pattern since the June low is a Falling Wedge and that won't seen to be able to break to the upside unless the price breaks above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) which by the first week of January should enter the Falling Wedge. Only then, after breaking this trend-line that has been intact since December 31 2021, can we expect Bitcoin to turn bullish long-term. Until then, the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Falling Wedge poses as the next rejection point/ Resistance.
The only indication showing that there may be light down the tunnel for Bitcoin is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). This has been dropping significantly since September 26 and even though as you see on the chart they have a negative correlation, Bitcoin broke this after the FTX crash. With the Dollar continuing to drop, it would appear that when the crypto market gets past this fundamental effect of fear and uncertainty it left, it will shoot up aggressively to cover the lost ground to the upside.
Do you think the market is far from getting back to normal again and capitalize the Dollar drop? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 50% of stocks above 1D MA200 = RallyThis is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame compared to the S&P500 index (SPX) illustrated by the blue trend-line. The indicator below (black trend-line) shows that historically when 50% of the S&P500 stocks break above their 1D MA200, both Bitcoin and the S&P500 start a rally soon.
Initially a few weeks of volatility takes place but the process already kicks in. Bitcoin's RSI is displayed in orange to give a better perspective of where we could be historically compared to prior bottoms. As you see, it tends to lag behind the stocks' indicator when it breaks above 50% .
Do you think the pattern will be repeated again? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Pivot rejection, important 4H MA50 test! Buy or sell?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) immediately got rejected upon entering the 18200 - 18900 Pivot Zone (blue), which as we mentioned in our previous analysis was the former Support Zone from June until November (having multiple rebounds/ circles) now turned into a Resistance.
The price broke again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is headed towards the Support of the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). This is a critical Support level as within the greater Falling Wedge pattern that started on the June 18 Low, every time the price broke below it after a Lower High, a major sell-off was initiated.
However all Lower Highs (peaks) within the Falling Wedge, have take place after BTC broke above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), even marginally (green circles - August 15, September 13 and November 05). This hasn't happened yet on this Nov/ Dec rally and the 1D MA100 is currently just above yesterday's peak, inside the Pivot Zone and a little lower than the Falling Wedge's top (Lower Highs trend-line).
As a result, unless the 4H MA50 breaks, we still believe there is (at least) some upside left on this BTC rally. Perhaps the 1D RSI can give an additional edge to finding the top after it enters its Resistance Zone. Below the 4H MA50, we expect 16000 to be tested while even a Lower Low on the Wedge's bottom is possible.
As for the long-term, only a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which is unbroken for nearly 1 year (since December 31 2021), can restore the bullish trend and confirm the new Bull Cycle.
So what do you think? Is there one left High to make or Bitcoin will break below the 4H MA50 first? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Can a 5th straight monthly inflation drop save the day??The talk of the day is the U.S. CPI which moments ago came out lower than expected (7.1% against a 7.3% forecast), marking the 5th straight month that inflation dropped. This is in fact the 2nd straight month of lower than expected CPI. The question is, will this be enough to mark the end of the Bear Cycle on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and save the day?
Well that also depends on the Fed which tomorrow decides upon the new Interest Rate. Technically though, BTC broke today above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in over 1 month (since November 08) and the FTX crash. Even though that is a strong bullish signal alone on the short-term, the picture is more complicated on the long-term.
As you see, the price has been trading within a Channel Down since the July 26 low. The RSI on the 1W time-frame though has been on a Channel Up, signaling a Bullish Divergence here, potentially hinting to a long-term bullish break-out. Until then, the focus is on the Resistance levels in the form of the Fibonacci levels within this Channel Down. But perhaps the biggest pressure will be on the (red) Pivot Zone, which from June 18 until November 08 had multiple test and hold events, and now is the Symmetrical Resistance. A break above should happen at the same time the price breaks above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down.
Beyond that point, we will be looking for a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to confirm the uptrend, as it has been untouched for nearly 1 year (since December 31 2021). That would target the 22800 Resistance (1) and 25275 Resistance (2) on the medium-term.
On the other hand, a Pivot and Channel top rejection will be a bearish signal targeting at least the 0.5 Channel Fib.
Which scenario do you think is more likely? Is the CPI and Fed coming to the rescue? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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💥Weekly Timeframe Analysis for $TOTAL#TOTAL (UPDATE)
Here is what to expect on crypto total market cap for the next few months. $TOTAL is clearly bearish. But we may see a small pump towards $850B - $900B for market to seek liquidity before the drop. If price should drop from $900B market cap to $640B then $558B, imagine the outcome on Bitcoin.
Also, if the crypto total market cap should drop from its CMP @ $804B market cap to $400B which is -2x, what price do you think Bitcoin price will fall to??
$8,500; $9,500; $10,500, $11,500?
What’s your perspective?
Not a financial advice 🙅🏼♂️
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BITCOIN Historical Buy Signal is flashingBitcoin (BTCUSD) remains supported on the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) following the FTX crash. A rare indicator, the Gaussian Channel (GC), remains red but based on previous Cycles, by the time it turns green, Bitcoin already has the first mini rally of the new Bull Cycle.
The previous two GC Cycles from the end of the previous red period to the end of the next red period extended for 1260 and 1280 days respectively. If the 1280 day max is repeated during this Cycle also then the GC should flash green by January 30 2023. That means that historically there isn't much time left to start the 1st rally of the new Bull Cycle.
Also by using the Fibonacci extension and retracement levels we see that the first two Cycles topped a little over the 1.414 Fib extension, while the bottoms of the first three Cycles have been above the 0.618 Fib retracement level. As diminishing returns are in effect on each Cycle, which in theory should narrow Bitcoin's channel long-term, the last Cycle topped lower on the 1.236 Fib (which is where the last High before the Top was formed in the previous two Cycles). If the channel does narrow down, then we bottom should also be higher and the next candidate would be the 0.5 Fib, which is slightly below the recent November low.
With the Gaussian Channel pattern pointing to the 1st rally soon, the MA350 holding and the 0.5 Fib potentially the new Cyclical Support, we have perhaps the strongest buy signal of this Cycle flashing right now.
Do you think that's the best time to buy? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN, Yuan and China bond yields point to rally ahead!You might be thinking what the Chinese Yuan (USDCNY displayed by the red trend-line) and China's bond yields (CN20Y displayed by the blue trend-line) have to do with BITCOIN (BTCUSD). This chart comes to show just how strong the correlation is.
As you see since 2012, every time the CN20Y broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, Bitcoin started its Bull Cycle rally. This makes the two assets strongly positively correlated. In addition, when that happened, it always coincided with the USDCNY starting a major fall (red circle on the chart, making the two assets mostly negatively correlated. In fact Bitcoin has had its Bull Cycles in major long-term USDCNY falls and its Bear Cycle in major USDCNY rises.
Right now the CN20Y is testing the 2021/2022 Lower Highs trend-line again. Do you think a break above it would start Bitcoin's new major Bull rally? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Bullish Cross aims at $21000 at least.The MACD on the 3D time-frame is about to complete a Bullish Cross today. If the session closes that way, it will only be the 5th time since July 2021 of this occurence.
The past four events made Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rally on a minimum of +26.50% and maximum of + 65.15%. From the current levels, that gives a min rise at $21000 and maximum at $27500.
Even the minimum would put BTC above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which has been the strongest Resistance of this Bear Cycle, rejecting the price since the start of the year.
What do you think? Will this Bullish Cross push Bitcoin to at least 21000 and if it does, will the 1D MA200 break-out be the start of the new Bull Cycle? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The Golden 51%-49% Ratio is back! Is this the next top?After the interest that the revised version of my Logarithmic Channel model attracted, I thought I'd extend it by adding a few more elements, most notable of which Tradingshot's very own Golden 51%-49% Ratio!
Basically I've been asked continuously to make an update on that legendary chart, so here is an extension, though I promise I will also make an update with the original minimal pattern.
For those who don't know how this Ratio works, it basically suggests that on each Cycle, the phase from the Bottom to the Halving is 51% of the whole Bull Cycle while the rest (Halving to Top) consists the 49%. Practically it claims that the Halving is roughly at the middle of each Bull Cycle.
As the Logarithmic Growth Channel suggest that November 2022 was the absolute bottom of the 2022 Bear Cycle, we can now use the next Halving (number 4) and apply the 51%-49% Golden Ratio. Halving 4 is projected to be on May 26 2024 and based on the Ratio that puts the High of Cycle 5 near the end of November 2025. On every Cycle, once the Bear Cycle Lower Highs trend-line broke, BTC started officially the Rise, which after the Halving turns parabolic.
Do you think a $200k Bitcoin realistic during Cycle 5 based on the combination of this two patterns? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Long and painful but necessary bottom process!We rarely post Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analyses on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, but this one does justice is showing the complete long-term picture.
On a monthly basis, Bitcoin has been forming a bottom since the June Low, within a zone formed by the Fibonacci MA and Multiple 1. At the same time the 1M RSI has been trading exactly at the bottom of the Channel Down pattern that goes back to April 2013.
This is the painful but necessary bottom process that BTC has to go through on all of its Cycles and it appears that it bears more resemblance with the early 2015 sequence. The cyclical pattern on every Cycle is the same. Lower Lows, a Resistance and a Cup like formation which after it breaks the Resistance starts the parabolic rally to the new Cycle High. Based on this model, the next Resistance break-out may not happen until early 2024.
What are your thoughts on this? Is Bitcoin about to complete a painful but necessary bottom process? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Log Growth Curve the only pattern that matters right nowOn this chart we seen Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on its historic Logarithmic Channel (LC), the channel that has been trading in since its inception and will put emphasis on its Growth Curve which is the pattern we popularized here since early 2019.
See how well the model has been containing the price action going more than 3 years back:
Back to today now. As you see on this chart, which as we mention is the only chart you should care about right now, Bitcoin following the FTX crash hit the bottom of its Logarithmic Channel (LG), displayed by the green line, which historically has proven to be the ultimate buy level, with strong rallies following shortly after.
Since then it has been trading on the green line, which we call the Growth Curve (GC), showing the first signs of a new, and most likely the final, accumulation phase. As long as it stays within the GC and the dotted line above, BTC will continue to accumulate.
Above that, the first historic Resistance in an upcoming Bull Cycle is the Blue line, which kept the price at bay for most of the 2012 and 2015/16 Cycles, before the parabolic rally that capped the Bull Cycle.
The yellow line is a typical pivot line during both Bull and Bear Cycles, as you see it held the first waves of the 2021/22 Bear Cycle before eventually failing.
The orange line, is the level where investors typically look to sell and exit the Bull Cycle, while the zone formed by the upper dotted line and the red one has historically been an absolute (extremely overbought) belt.
Right now the price is on the absolute bottom of this model that has never failed while having the Multiple 8 (grey trend-line) just below it, which also has never been broken and marked the bottoms of March 2020, August 2015 and November 2011.
Are you a buyer or a seller based on this? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN & the USDT Dominance point to a fast reversal!This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame drawn against the USDT dominance. For better comparison purposes both are displayed in candle bars, BTC being on top, USDT Dom at the bottom.
The essence of this comparison is to find a behavioral pattern that can help us estimate which phase of the Cycle BTC could be at. As you see, the USDT Dom is printing a pattern, technical top formation that has been previously associated with market bottoms on Bitcoin. In the past two weeks, the USDT Dom has started to pull-back and that very same sequence in July 2020 and February 2019 extended the drops, which was translated into an instant rally on Bitcoin. Even in the case of the August 31 2020 week and the injection that sent the USDT Dom (much) higher following the initial pull-back, the price quickly get back to its harmonized levels and fell back massively.
BTC has already started to react favorably to this 2-week USDT Dom pull-back. Do you think it can keep up this momentum and if this is indeed a USDT D. top are we ahead of a strong rally? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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