BTC Outlook: Constructive Above 112k, Risky BelowLast week in my BTC analysis, I mentioned that the price could reverse from the 108k zone. That scenario played out, and while this was a positive development, I also noted that bulls needed to reclaim 112k for a brighter outlook.
The market delivered: BTC not only reversed but also broke back above 112k, pushing as high as just under 115k.
Now, the 112k zone has become crucial for two reasons:
1. If bulls hold above 112k – it confirms strength and validates the recovery as a genuine move higher.
2. If price breaks back below 112k – the recent move above would be revealed as a false upside break, with 115k locked in as a new lower high and a potential descending triangle taking shape.
With this in mind, I remain constructive on BTC. But the message is clear: 112k is the key level that will decide whether momentum continues or fades. 🚀
BTCUSDT
Next Volatility Period: Around October 3rd (October 2nd-4th)
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(BTCUSDT 1D Chart)
This volatility period lasts until September 29th, but since the next volatility period is around October 3rd (October 2nd-4th), it's highly likely that the volatility period will continue until October 4th.
Therefore, we need to see if the price can sustain above 11696.21 after the volatility period.
If it fails to do so and falls below the 104463.99-108353.0 range, a sharp decline is likely.
If a sharp decline occurs, we need to check for the formation of new indicators such as the DOM (-60) or HA-Low indicators.
If new support is formed, it's important to determine whether there is support near that area.
If support is not found, a step-down trend is likely.
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It is currently located near the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.
Therefore, if the price rises above 111696.21 and holds, further upward movement is likely.
At this point, the key question is whether the price can rise above 115854.56 and hold.
To sustain the uptrend,
- The StochRSI indicator must show an upward trend. It must rise from the oversold zone.
- The On-By-Signal (OBV) indicator must show an upward trend. It must rise above EMA 1 and, if possible, above the High Line and remain there.
- The TC (Trend Check) indicator must show an upward trend. It must rise above the 0 point and remain there.
If the above conditions are met, the uptrend is likely to continue above 111696.21.
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The basic trading strategy is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
However, if the price rises in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range, a stepwise upward trend is likely, while if the price falls in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, a stepwise downward trend is likely.
Therefore, the basic trading strategy should be a segmented trading approach.
This basic trading strategy principle was developed for trading on Heikin-Ashi charts.
Adding the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts allows you to see the overall trend.
The remaining indicators indicate support and resistance points or zones for chart analysis or trading strategies.
Trading is all about reaction, so understanding support and resistance points or zones is crucial.
However, you should interpret the charts based on core fundamental trading strategies.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I'll explain more in detail when the bear market begins.
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#BTC/USDT 1DAY CHART UPDATE !!BTC Trend Context: The price is within an ascending channel – overall, this suggests an upward trend in the market.
Support Testing: The lower boundary or support zone is being tested – this is a critical "decisive" area.
Rejection/Bounce Potential: If support holds and the price reacts upwards, we could see a further move upwards towards resistance.
Breakdown Risk: If the price breaks decisively below support, this could lead to a deeper decline or a trend reversal.
Is Bitcoin about to outperform Gold ? The potential Does exist
As we can see on this weekly Bitcoin XAUT Gold chart, BTC Ranges, pushes, ranges, pushes.
And the BTC PA is now on the line of support ir has strongly bounced off previously.
PA is also beginning to get Squeezed in the Pennant. The Apex is next year but I expect PA to break out of this this year.
It will be interesting to see what happens here this month and I do have Hopes that BTC will begin to outperform gold, certainly while PA pushes up off support and heads towards the upper trend line.
This idea is backed up with the weekly GOLD Chart below.
As we can see, Gold is up on the upper trendline and has hit the 2.768 Fib extension, Both of which are likely to be resistance.
We can also see how Oversold the Gold Weekly MACD is
There is a Strong likelihood that Gold will need to cool off, though we need to understand that MACRO events do control this, so a Drop is not guaranteed.
But I will be watching this CLOSE as The BTCXAUT pair is a much better Pair to watch than the BTCUSD.
Yjr reason being, while the $ looses Value, gains in the BTCUSD pair are Not as good as it may appear. Because you may gain in the number of $ you can get but each $ is worth less.
GOLD meanwhile, is rising in Value or not loosing as much when it ranges. Itis a STORE of Value and is internationally recognised and is politcay neutral.
BTC/USD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of BTC/USDT (4H timeframe) chart analysis:
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Bullish Bitcoin Setup
Trendline Breakout: Price has broken above the descending trendline, signaling a shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
Order Block (OB): Price retraced into the order block (yellow zone) around 112,200 – 113,000, showing demand holding strong.
Moving Averages:
50 EMA (red) has crossed above the OB zone.
200 EMA (blue) is acting as dynamic support, strengthening the bullish case.
Price Action: After retesting the OB/EMA confluence, price is expected to continue higher.
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Target Point
119,953 (≈120,000 psychological level) is the upside target.
This aligns with the next major resistance and the projected extension of the bullish breakout.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trading Idea
Bias: Bullish.
Entry Zone: Retest of 112,500 – 113,000 (OB + EMA support).
Target: 119,953.
Invalidation: A breakdown below 112,000 would weaken the bullish scenario and suggest continuation of the downtrend.
Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Bitcoin is bullish now & many Traders don't see it !!!As you can see, the price has formed a triangle over the past 4 months, whose bullish or bearish nature will be determined after its breakout. The corrective Elliott waves(abc) are currently completing the final wave, which indicates that a potential price increase is on the way. The price seems to have completed the corrective wave, and from now on, it's time for a price increase, which will continue up to around $130k .
Bitcoin HOLDING THE MAIN TREND.. UPDATE 30-09-2025BTC/USDT Update
🔻 Bitcoin is currently trading below the low time frame zone, showing short-term weakness.
✅ However, BTC is still holding the main trend, which keeps the bigger picture positive.
📊 As long as the main trend support (around $110K) is defended, the market structure remains intact.
🚀 A rebound from this area could bring BTC back into the low time frame range and open the way toward $115K+.
📌 Summary:
BTC lost the low time frame, but the fact that it’s holding the main trend is a key positive signal. This level is crucial for maintaining the bullish outlook.
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #184👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let's go over the Bitcoin analysis. Yesterday, the price got rejected from a resistance zone, and today, it has started a corrective downward movement. Let's review the market together.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
Yesterday, after the price reached the resistance zone, I mentioned that if the RSI exits the Overbuy zone, we could take profits.
📊 This is exactly what happened. After the price was rejected from the zone, the RSI moved out of the Overbuy zone and started heading downward.
⭐ Currently, the price correction has continued towards the 0.382 Fibonacci level. The trading volume during this correction has not decreased, which indicates that sellers are still active in the market, and their trading volume is not significantly lower than buyers.
🎲 If the price continues its correction and the volume increases at the same rate, the likelihood of a trend reversal and the start of a new downward trend becomes much higher. However, if the volume decreases simultaneously with the correction, the range between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels will be a very important support zone, and the price could find support there.
🔼 For a long position, the trigger we currently have is the breakout of the resistance zone. If we wait for the price to touch this zone a few more times, we can draw the exact numbers for the range and open our position upon its breakout.
⚡️ For a short position, it's better to wait and get confirmation of a bearish trend before looking for triggers. We will confirm the bearish trend if the selling volume increases and lower highs and lows are made.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
BTC to go parabolic to 100 oz Gold by EOY 2025!Gold and Bitcoin are both valuable hard assets and from my observation, the Bitcoin chart to Gold is much better predictable than it's price to USD. The reason might be because Gold holds it's purchasing power over time through the history, and in fact it is the base line for the purchasing power, but Dollar depends on how much it gets printed and cannot be reliably predicted. That's why when you look at BTC/Gold chart, most of the times you see exact double tops or exact double bottoms.
I was predicting BTC would get to $100K USD when it hits it's previous top to Gold (37 oz) and so I was predicting about 8 month before it happens that BTC will be $100K when Gold is 2650 and it happened. I was surprised myself that it held true.
Looking into Gold price history, we can reliably say that Gold will not stop here and will march to $8000 within couple of years. However I think it has hit it's top for the year, or max $4000 will be the 2025 top. Then when Gold pulls back, BTC will get the chance to go parabolic, and has it's last rise of this bull market, and I expect it should take BTC to near 100 oz Gold. So if we want to put all together, Gold = 3350 where it pulls back and BTC= 100 oz = $335,000. I know the Bitcoin whales are playful sometimes, so we might get into $333,333 per BTC.
I remember in Nov 2013 everyone was talking about bitcoin flipping gold (1 BTC getting to 1 oz Gold) and well, it didn't happen at that time and it had to come back in 2017, but it got close enough. We might have the same kind of situation here so starting to drop anywhere from $270k to $330k might be what we get.
I don't publish many analysis's on TV, but I thought I'd put this here, it might get me famous ;)
BITCOIN Is Still Bearish (1D)All these upward moves look like a pullback to the supply zone that had not yet been tested. It is expected that after some ranging around this area, the price will drop, breaking the liquidity pool forming beneath the candles and moving toward TP 1.
This outlook remains valid as long as no daily candle closes above the invalidation level.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BTC/USDT Bearish Trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of BTC/USDT (4H timeframe) chart analysis:
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Bearish Bitcoin Setup
Trend: The market is clearly in a downtrend, with price respecting the descending channel.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Two FVG zones are highlighted where price retraced to fill imbalances.
Moving Averages:
50 EMA (red) and 200 EMA (blue) are above price, confirming bearish momentum.
Key Resistance: Price is currently retesting the FVG supply zone around 111,000 – 111,500, which aligns with the descending trendline.
Rejection Expected: If sellers defend this zone, price is likely to continue its bearish trajectory.
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Target Point
A measured move suggests a potential drop towards 106,218 (next support / target zone).
This aligns with the channel’s lower boundary.
.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trading Idea
Bias: Bearish.
Entry Zone: Around 111,000 – 111,500 (FVG supply & trendline confluence).
Target: 106,218.
Invalidation: A breakout above 113,000 (200 EMA) would weaken the bearish setup.
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Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #183👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let's dive into today's Bitcoin analysis. The market has had an upward movement. Let's see what's ahead in the market.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
Yesterday, I mentioned that there was a high probability of movement and that it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the chart during the New York session as the market could move.
📊 With the start of the New York session, good buying volume entered the market, and after breaking 109890, Bitcoin started an upward wave.
🔑 The first area where the price could have faced resistance was 111605, which was broken on the first attempt. After a pullback, the next leg started.
🚀 The break of 109890, along with RSI entering Overbuy and the entry of buying volume, was a good trigger for a long position, and we could have opened a position with it.
⭐ Now, the price has reached a very important resistance zone, and the probability of a correction starting is high. For taking profit, I suggest you lock in profits whenever RSI exits the Overbuy zone, as this will reduce the upward momentum and increase the chances of a correction.
📈 For new positions, no triggers are available yet, and it's better to wait until the market gives us a clearer structure. However, if the price reacts several times to the level, we can open a long position in subsequent attempts if it breaks.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
BTC long, because ... why not?BTC is "THE" asset against monetary expansion and Powell kind of gave the green light, not for more rate cuts, but he acknowledged that Trump might be "irght" about cutting rates.
Market still price 2 or 3 rate cuts by EOY.
there is no reason BTC does not trade above 120k soon, and why not 144k when we are at it?
H12 200 MA/EMA as a nice inflection point here.
Bitcoin’s Next Big Move: Buy the Dip Before $138K!Hello guys!
Bitcoin is once again at a critical stage, and the chart is giving us a clear roadmap for the next move. Let’s break it down:
Current Setup
Price is holding above $108K–109K and has shown strength around the $103K support zone.
The structure remains bullish as long as BTC trades above $100K.
Strategy
1- Entry zones for buying:
Current market price (~$109K)
Support zone around $103K (a good second chance for buyers).
2- Stop-loss: Around $99K, just below the psychological and structural support of $100K.
3- Target: Upside potential points toward $138K , which aligns with the next major resistance zone.
⚠️ Risk Factor
If BTC breaks below $100K, the bullish phase ends, and we should expect a bearish shift in momentum. In that case, caution and defensive trading will be the smarter play.
📌 Conclusion
For now, the play is simple:
👉 Stay bullish and buy dips while BTC is above $100K.
👉 Watch the $103K zone for re-entries.
👉 Protect your capital with a $99K stop-loss.
👉 Aim high-> the next big target sits around $138K.
SHORT BITCOIN – THE TRAP IS BELOW, NOT ABOVE!Traders,
From the current levels around $112.8K–$113K, I believe Bitcoin is setting up for another leg down into the $104K region.
Why? Because at current levels we already have multiple Anchored VWAPs (AVWAPs) lining up from different swing high → low auctions, which makes this area heavy resistance.
That means the probability of retracing higher is limited, and instead, the market is more likely to drop into $104K — where there’s significant unfinished business — before a proper bounce can occur.
🔮 Hypothesis
From current levels ($112.8K–$113K), price will reject and move down toward $104K.
Retracement higher than $113K is unlikely given AVWAP confluence + resistance stack.
The $104K region will act as a bounce zone, potentially with a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) wick.
📊 Data & Confluence
🔻 Why $104K Is a Magnet
HTF Point of Control (POC): The high-volume node where markets naturally seek equilibrium.
HTF AVWAP: Anchored VWAP from major pivots aligns here, marking fair value.
4H TPO Single Prints + Fib Retracements (0.75–0.786): Gaps in auction structure converge with key Fibonacci levels.
CME Gap: The $104K CME RTH gap still needs filling — markets often return here for balance.
Sept 1st Low (Weekly TPO): Poor excess signals unfinished auction business, pulling price back down.
🔼 Why Current Levels Won’t Hold
Clustered AVWAPs (different swing high → low auctions): Acting as strong dynamic resistance.
Multiple POCs at current zone: Volume saturation suggests exhaustion.
Fibonacci confluence + harmonic pattern: Pointing to lower continuation.
💵 Macro Flows
USDT Dominance (USDT.D): Breaking higher → capital shifting to stablecoins → bearish BTC.
Aggregated CVD: Spot CVD drifting slightly higher, but futures CVD flat with no OI expansion.
→ No real demand behind the move.
📌 My Take
Bitcoin is most likely to:
Reject from current AVWAP resistance ($112.8K–$113K).
Drop into $104K, clearing imbalances and luring in shorts below the 0.786 fib.
Trigger a wick/squeeze move up (Swing Failure Pattern) to trap those late shorters.
⚠️ If $104K fails to hold, next target is the imbalance zone around $98.5K.
✅ Conclusion
The market is loaded with resistance at current levels. Until that’s broken with conviction, the path of least resistance is down into $104K.
That’s where the real battle will be.
Trade safe, manage risk, and don’t get trapped on the wrong side of the wick.
Mvrk/usdtGATEIO:MVRKUSDT
### **Support (Demand) Zones**
* **0.0737 – 0.0740** → First strong support (red circle + dotted line).
* **0.0660 – 0.0661** → Secondary support (red dotted line).
* **0.0581 – 0.0600** → Major demand zone (blue box at bottom).
### **Resistance (Supply) Zones**
* **0.0890 – 0.0923** → Nearest supply zone (red dotted lines, multiple rejections).
* **0.1040 – 0.1050** → Stronger resistance (black dashed line).
📌 Quick view:
* Bulls must defend **0.073–0.074** to keep structure intact.
* Breaking **0.089–0.092** could trigger a push toward **0.105**.
Disclaimer : Not Financial Advice
BTC/USDT - BREAKOUT Or BREAKDOWN AHEADThe price is currently trading around the 112,112 USDT level with slight intraday fluctuations. The chart highlights a key horizontal support and resistance (S/R) structure with two red horizontal lines marking these zones.
1. Resistance (R) Zone
The upper red horizontal line, marked as “R,” is acting as a resistance level around the 112,400 USDT region. Price has tested this level multiple times in the recent sessions. A clear breakout above this resistance could signal further bullish continuation.
2. Support (S) Zone
The lower red horizontal line, marked as “S,” is situated around the 111,600 USDT level. This zone has provided a strong demand base for buyers. If the price retraces, this level will act as a critical support.
3. Current Price Action
At the time of observation, Bitcoin is consolidating right above the resistance zone, suggesting a possible breakout attempt. The candlesticks indicate bullish momentum leading into the resistance, with a series of higher lows forming before the test of resistance. This pattern reflects increasing buying pressure.
4. Possible Scenarios
• Bullish Scenario: If the price successfully breaks and holds above the resistance zone (R), it may trigger a move towards the next target to the upside, projected around the 112,800 – 113,200 USDT region. The structure suggests the possibility of forming a bullish continuation pattern, with traders targeting higher resistance levels.
• Bearish Scenario: If the breakout attempt fails and Bitcoin gets rejected at resistance, price could retrace downward. A move below the support zone (S) at 111,600 USDT would likely signal bearish momentum, with the next target projected around the 111,200 – 110,800 USDT range.
5. Market Sentiment
The price action is consolidating in a range-bound structure between support and resistance. This often reflects market indecision before a breakout. A breakout from this range, either above resistance or below support, will provide a clearer directional bias.
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Conclusion:
The BTC/USDT 15-minute chart is currently at a critical juncture. Traders should closely monitor whether Bitcoin sustains above the 112,400 resistance to confirm a bullish breakout, or if it fails and drops back below support at 111,600, signaling bearish continuation. Patience and confirmation of breakout direction are key before entering new trades.






















