Will US Gov Shutdown Continue to Support Bitcoin Prices?Fundamental approach:
- Bitcoin prices this week have been driven by renewed risk appetite and positive spot ETF inflows, with sentiment supported by the US government shutdown’s data blackout and expectations of further Fed easing as labor market signals soften. The institutional demand narrative strengthened as US spot ETFs returned to inflows, with assets under management remaining elevated, thereby bolstering dip-buying interest.
- Drivers included a modest uptick in the ISM manufacturing PMI, which is still in contraction, and ADP private payrolls showing job losses, reinforcing the view that looser policy could persist and liquidity conditions may remain supportive for the crypto beta. The shutdown has curtailed government data releases, prompting markets to rely on private indicators and amplifying sensitivity to risk sentiment and ETF flow headlines throughout the week.
- Bitcoin prices could sustain momentum if ETF inflows remain positive and macro uncertainty keeps rate-cut expectations intact, though volatility may rise with limited official data.
Technical approach:
- BTCUSD broke the triangle pattern and rose higher, positioning itself above both EMAs, indicating an upward momentum.
- If BTCUSD remains above 117000, the price may retest the previous swing high at around 123000.
- On the contrary, closing below 117,000 may prompt BTCUSD to retest the broken triangle pattern and the area between both EMAs.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
