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BTC at a Critical Inflection Point Following a Decisive Sell-OffHello, I'm Camila. Price declined decisively, reflecting strong bearish momentum as sellers maintained clear control over the market. However, once price reached a key support area, selling pressure began to fade, suggesting that buyers were starting to show interest. This was followed by a strong rebound that broke above the short-term descending trendline, marking the first meaningful sign of a potential trend shift. This breakout indicates that buyers are returning to the market and actively attempting to regain control. The immediate upside target is located around the 107,000 USD area, which aligns with the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone. This region often acts as a magnet for price, attracting corrective moves before the market commits to its next directional decision. If buyers are able to hold above the recent breakout level and build momentum, a deeper recovery move may unfold. On the other hand, failure to sustain price above this level could lead to a pullback into the demand zone for a retest before the next advance. In summary, buyers are cautiously probing the market. The key question now is whether they can maintain control above the breakout point and confirm the shift in market structure. Wishing you disciplined and successful trading.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Camila_Roja
12
XAUUSD – Geopolitical Rally, Market Near Trend ConfirmationHello everyone, this is Domic. During the Asian session, gold rebounded sharply from the 4.33x area to above 4.39x, signaling a clear return of defensive flows after news that the US launched a military operation in Venezuela and detained President Maduro. Although the military action itself has concluded, Washington’s announcement of a temporary takeover to stabilize the country and oversee oil production has kept geopolitical uncertainty in Latin America elevated. In this context, gold continues to be favored as a safe haven rather than higher-risk assets. Another notable factor is crude oil pulling back toward the 57 USD/barrel area. This suggests the market is viewing the Venezuela situation primarily through a geopolitical risk lens rather than as an immediate threat to energy supply. Rising uncertainty without a corresponding spike in oil-driven inflation expectations creates a more supportive short-term backdrop for gold. On the H4 timeframe, technical signals are turning more constructive. Price remains above the slower EMA and has reclaimed the faster EMA after the year-end pullback. In hindsight, the decline from the 4.55x area down to 4.28x appears corrective rather than distributive. The strong reaction from the demand zone and the ability to sustain the rebound indicate that buyers have regained short-term control, placing the market in a phase where the uptrend is being confirmed rather than challenged. Wishing you all effective and successful trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DomicChaina
31
Technical Rebound at Key EMA, Medium-Term Uptrend Remains IntactHello everyone, EUR/USD has just completed a fairly deep but well-controlled correction. The prior sell-off pulled price back toward the medium-term EMA zone around 1.1680–1.1700, and the subsequent rebound suggests selling pressure is no longer expanding, while buyers have started to step in to defend the broader structure. Although price briefly printed a lower low in the short term, the medium-term picture has not been broken. At the moment, EUR/USD is fluctuating around the confluence of EMA 34 and EMA 89 near 1.1730–1.1740 — a key decision area. Holding above this zone would give the market room to continue consolidating and recovering; failure here could open the door for a retest of the prior lows. From a macro perspective, the current backdrop does not place significant pressure on the euro. The Fed remains cautious and data-dependent, limiting the upside in US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the ECB continues to maintain a moderately firm stance, helping EUR hold a stable price base. Upcoming data such as services PMI and US jobless claims may trigger short-term volatility, but in my view, they are unlikely to alter the medium-term trend unless a major surprise emerges.
Long
by DomicChaina
6
Gold doesn’t hate you. Gold just loves… your liquidity.If you’ve ever felt like XAUUSD has a personal grudge against you — price spikes the moment you enter, sweeps your SL perfectly, then runs strongly in your predicted direction right after you exit — take a breath. Pause for a second. The gold market doesn’t move based on emotions. It moves based on liquidity — the fuel behind every major move . 1. Retail traders trade price. Institutions trade orderflow. You look at the chart to find a perfect entry. Institutions look at the chart to find where the most SL and pending orders are stacked. To them, it’s not a “resistance zone” — it’s a liquidity pool. When retail SL gets triggered, it turns into market orders. And those market orders become the free matching engine for big players to enter without excessive slippage. You think you’re protecting your risk with SL. The market thinks you’re placing free orders for them to fill their positions. 2. Gold loves clean levels because SL sits at clean levels. Liquidity sweep zones usually share the same traits: - Recent highs/lows everyone can see - Support/resistance that looks clean and easy to draw - Attractive round numbers like 2,700 – 2,650 – 2,600… These areas are liquidity magnets, not breakout signals. 3. “Sweep then run” is a process, not an exception. A major gold move typically has 2 phases: - Liquidity grab (SL sweep, pending activation) - Expansion (the real trend begins) Most traders lose because they confuse phase 1 with phase 2. Retail sees a spike → fear trend break. Institutions see a spike → mission accomplished, liquidity collected, positions filled. 4. The market doesn’t need you to be wrong — it only needs you forced out. Gold doesn’t need to prove your analysis was bad. It just needs enough volatility to make you: - Hit SL - Or close manually out of panic Either way, the market gets the liquidity you left behind. 5. Trading maturity = not turning yourself into liquidity. You don’t need to remove SL. You just need to: - Place SL where the structure is truly invalidated, not where liquidity is obvious - Enter after liquidity is swept, not before - Keep margin to reposition during pullbacks - Understand: being right isn’t enough — you must be right at the right time.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Paradise_Noir
21
XAU/USD – The bullish trend continues to strengthenAs we move into the early sessions of 2026, gold continues to reinforce its role as a safe-haven asse t amid escalating geopolitical tensions following U.S. military actions in Venezuela . The sharp 2.7% surge in the previous session signals a clear return of defensive capital flows, especially as global markets face rising uncertainty. At the same time, expectations of further Fed rate cuts this year are creating a favorable environment for non-yielding assets such as gold. From a technical perspective, the H4 chart confirms that XAU/USD’s bullish structure remains firmly intact . After a brief corrective phase, price quickly rebounded from the 4,440 zone, validating it as a key instant support where buying pressure consistently emerges. The recovery legs are decisive and well-supported, indicating that buyers remain firmly in control of the broader trend . As long as price continues to hold above this support area, the high-probability scenario points toward a renewed advance toward 4,520, followed by a potential extension to the 4,600 resistance zone. With safe-haven demand still active, any near-term pullbacks are likely to remain technical in nature, serving as a base for further upside continuation in XAU/USD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Paradise_Noir
10
Gold Bullish Outlook | Dollar Weakness & Geopolitical Risks!Hey Traders, In the coming week, we are closely monitoring XAUUSD (Gold) for a potential buying opportunity around the 4,280 zone. Gold remains in a strong bullish trend and is currently undergoing a healthy corrective pullback, approaching a key trendline confluence and 4,280 support & resistance zone, which could act as a high-probability demand area. From a macro perspective, the recent weakness in the US Dollar continues to support upside momentum in Gold. Additionally, last night’s escalation of US tensions with Venezuela has increased geopolitical uncertainty, further boosting safe-haven demand for Gold, which strengthens the bullish bias. As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk accordingly. Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
39
EUR/USD: A Healthy Correction Ahead of the Next RallyHello everyone, Camila here! On the H4 timeframe, the bullish structure remains clearly intact. Price continues to form higher highs and higher lows, while the ascending trendline drawn from key swing lows is still being respected by the market. This indicates that the primary buying pressure has not left the market. After breaking out of the compression area and printing a new high, EUR/USD has entered a correction to retest the previous breakout zone. This is a very common technical behavior associated with institutional money flows. The market often returns to recently broken levels to confirm the role shift from resistance to support. The current correction, in my view, represents a healthy pullback rather than a distribution phase. Selling pressure has not expanded, downside momentum remains controlled, and the bullish structure has not been compromised. In particular, the 1.1650–1.1660 area stands out as a key support zone, as it aligns with prior structural support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the latest bullish impulse. In the scenario I am monitoring, EUR/USD may continue to decline toward the 1.1650–1.1660 area to test demand. If price holds this zone and fresh buying signals emerge, the market is likely to rebound toward the 1.1740–1.1760 resistance zone. A strong break above this resistance would open the door for further upside extension in the medium term. From a news and macroeconomic perspective, EUR/USD is receiving a degree of support. Expectations that the Fed will maintain a dovish stance throughout 2026 continue to put pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a relatively weaker U.S. dollar. Recent U.S. economic data point to slowing growth, while inflation is gradually easing, increasing the likelihood of monetary policy easing going forward. In Europe, the ECB continues to maintain a cautious stance without signaling aggressive easing, which helps the euro preserve relative stability. Amid ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, capital flows are becoming more flexible rather than being concentrated entirely in the U.S. dollar as in previous periods. In conclusion, in my personal assessment, EUR/USD does not appear weak at this stage. Instead, the market is undergoing a necessary phase of consolidation and technical correction. The 1.1650–1.1660 area will be the key zone that determines the next directional move. As long as price remains above the ascending trendline, I continue to prioritize a trend-following long scenario, patiently waiting for confirmation rather than chasing short-term volatility. Wishing you successful trading.
Long
by Camila_Roja
8
EUR/USD Breakdown Confirmed – The Bearish Trend Comes Into FocusAs we move into early January 2026 , EUR/USD is sending clear signs of weakness , with both macro fundamentals and technical structure aligning in favor of the sellers. Market sentiment remains cautious at the start of the year, while capital flows are gradually rotating back into the U.S. dollar. From a fundamental perspective, the USD is being supported by expectations that upcoming U.S. economic data will remain resilient, whereas the ECB has yet to deliver any fresh policy signals strong enough to support the euro. This divergence in expectations continues to place downward pressure on EUR/USD in the short term, especially as markets currently favor safety and stability via the USD. On the technical side, the bearish structure remains intact . Price has attempted several recoveries, but each rally has been firmly rejected at the descending trendline, confirming that selling pressure continues to dominate market structure. Recent upward moves are purely corrective, lacking the momentum required to signal any meaningful trend reversal. The 1.1740 level stands out as a key resistance zone. As long as price remains below this level, the higher-probability scenario favors further downside, with EUR/USD likely to resume its decline toward the 1.1650 support area following a brief corrective bounce. In short, EUR/USD remains a sell-on-rallies market — until the structure clearly proves otherwise.
Short
by Paradise_Noir
8
Gold’s Disciplined Climb: Is the $4,541 Target the NextXAUUSD / H1 — Market Update Gold is maintaining a highly disciplined bullish posture, advancing within a well-defined ascending parallel channel. The market structure is characterized by a textbook series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows (noted by the orange reaction circles), signaling sustained buying pressure and strong trend health. Currently, price is navigating the upper half of the channel, eyeing a major liquidity pool sitting at the horizontal resistance level. The technical alignment is strongly supportive of the upside. Both the EMA 34 (Blue) and EMA 89 (Yellow) are sloping upward with healthy separation, acting as dynamic support zones. The current price action suggests a brief period of consolidation or a minor "buy-the-dip" opportunity as the market prepares for the next impulsive leg toward the psychological and technical targets above. Key Levels Resistance: 4,520 (Channel Top) – 4,541 (Major Horizontal Ceiling) Support: 4,445 – 4,455 (Channel Lower Boundary / Demand Zone) EMA Support: ~4,428 (EMA 34) Trading Scenarios ➡️ Primary: A shallow pullback toward the 4,445 – 4,455 zone (intercepting the lower trendline) → validation of a Higher Low → continuation higher toward the 4,541 liquidity target. ⚠️ Risk: A decisive hourly close below 4,428 (EMA 34) would signal a temporary shift in momentum, likely leading to a deeper correction toward the EMA 89 (~4,400) before any further upside attempts.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
5
Climbing the Channel — ATH Is the MagnetOANDA:XAUUSD continues to trade inside a well-defined ascending channel, with price respecting both channel support and structure of higher highs – higher lows. Pullbacks remain shallow and are consistently absorbed, signaling sustained bullish control rather than exhaustion. Momentum remains constructive as price holds mid-channel, keeping the focus on continuation toward the previous all-time high (OLD ATH) rather than a structural reversal. Key Levels Resistance: 4,525 → 4,550 (OLD ATH) Support: 4,460 – 4,470 (channel support) Structure invalidation: below 4,440 ➡️ Primary: hold above 4,460 → grind higher → test 4,525, then OLD ATH. ⚠️ Risk: loss of channel support → deeper pullback toward 4,440 before trend reassessment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Gold_Dominator
2
USD/JPY – Buyers Return, the Uptrend Remains in ControlEntering the early sessions of 2026, USD/JPY is showing notable stability after a brief corrective move. Although the yen found temporary support from hawkish remarks by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and ongoing speculation about possible intervention from Tokyo , the market largely views these factors as constraints on upside momentum rather than forces strong enough to reverse the primary trend. From a macro perspective, the interest-rate differential between the U.S. and Japan remains wide. The BoJ’s 25 bps rate hike to the highest level in 30 years carries more symbolic weight than practical impact, while global capital continues to favor carry trades. As a result, USD/JPY continues to hold above key support levels, despite short-term volatility. On the H4 chart, the bullish structure remains clearly intact. Price is advancing within a well-defined ascending channel , forming higher lows. The 156.00–156.10 zone serves as critical support, where price has repeatedly reacted and bounced decisively. As long as this area holds, the current pullback should be viewed as technical consolidation, laying the groundwork for further upside. Under the base scenario, USD/JPY is likely to rebound toward 157.30 , and potentially extend to the upper resistance of the channel. While intervention risks or tighter BoJ signals may keep traders cautious, the uptrend remains the dominant narrative as long as the technical structure stays intact.
Long
by Paradise_Noir
1
EURUSD Attempts a Modest ReboundHello everyone, what’s your view on FX:EURUSD today? EUR/USD has staged a modest recovery, supported by improving risk sentiment as traders grow less concerned about the situation in Venezuela. From a fundamental perspective, the U.S. dollar remains relatively strong as investors await clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path for 2026. Meanwhile, the euro continues to face pressure from weak growth prospects in the euro area and expectations that the ECB will maintain an accommodative stance. On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is still approaching the upper boundary of its trendline, with recent rebounds largely technical in nature. The 1.174–1.176 zone acts as the nearest resistance ahead of the psychological 1.180 level, while 1.1650–1.1680 remains a key support area. As long as price holds above this support, buyers remain relatively safe. What’s your take on this pair?
Long
by Trade_and_Chill-
XAU/USD – When capital speaks, gold continues to leadIf there is one asset that best reflects market sentiment at the start of 2026, gold clearly stands out. Without noisy breakouts or excessive volatility, XAU/USD is advancing in a textbook manner: slow, controlled, and firmly supported by real capital flows. From a fundamental perspective, geopolitical risks remain unresolved , while a low real-rate environment continues to reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets. In this context, gold naturally reclaims its role as a safe haven —a place investors turn to when confidence in stability is not yet fully restored. What stands out is that even during USD rebounds, gold refuses to weaken, signaling that strong underlying demand is waiting below. From a technical viewpoint, the picture becomes even clearer. The 4,400 zone is not merely a technical support; it represents the conviction of buyers. Each dip into this area is met with swift and decisive buying, pushing price back toward higher levels. The formation of higher lows confirms that a well-structured uptrend is steadily taking shape. On the upside, 4,480 remains a major resistance and the next logical upside objective. As long as gold continues to hold above its current base, a gradual push toward this level becomes a matter of when, not if. In short, gold is moving higher without hype—but with credibility. As long as the market continues to seek safety, the bullish story of XAU/USD is far from over, and the next chapters may very well unfold at even higher price levels. Wishing you disciplined trades and consistent success.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Paradise_Noir
11
EUR/USD at the Edge — Is This the Final Dip Before a Sharp......Market Structure Overview FX:EURUSD remains in a short-term bearish structure after a sustained selloff, but downside momentum is clearly decelerating. Price has reached a well-defined support zone around 1.1670–1.1680, where selling pressure is no longer expanding aggressively. This suggests the market is transitioning from trend to reaction mode. Support Zone: Where Sellers Are Slowing The current support zone has absorbed multiple bearish pushes without continuation. Recent candles show smaller bodies and overlapping price action, indicating seller exhaustion rather than renewed breakdown intent. As long as price holds above this zone, the probability of further immediate downside is limited. Resistance Zone and Mean-Reversion Path Above price, the 1.1740–1.1760 resistance zone aligns with prior structure and the descending EMA. This zone represents the first major upside obstacle. From a technical standpoint, a rebound toward this area would be a mean-reversion move, not yet a trend reversal, unless price can reclaim and hold above it with acceptance. Scenario Outlook - Primary scenario: Price stabilizes above support and develops a higher low, triggering a corrective rebound toward 1.1720 → 1.1760. - Alternative scenario: A clean breakdown and close below the support zone would invalidate the rebound thesis and open the door for continuation lower. Technical Conclusion EUR/USD is no longer in a high-conviction sell zone. The market is reacting at support, and risk-to-reward now favors patience and confirmation, not chasing shorts. The next directional move will be defined by how price behaves around the current support defense leads to rebound, failure leads to continuation.
Long
by Gold_Dominator
4
Technical Breakdown – Silver (XAGUSD)Market Structure Price is currently correcting after a strong impulsive leg. The higher timeframe bias remains bullish, while the current move is a short-term correction. The structure suggests a controlled pullback rather than trend reversal. Chart Patterns • Falling Trendline: Price is respecting a descending corrective trendline. • Corrective Structure: Classic impulse → correction setup is forming. • Demand Reaction: Strong reaction from the 72.0–71.9 demand zone. Liquidity & Key Levels • Sell-side liquidity has been swept below recent lows (~72.0). • Buy-side liquidity is resting above 75.80 and 76.75 (prior highs / rejection zones). Trade Idea (Bullish Continuation Scenario) 1% (High Risk) 🎯 Targets: TP1: 75.80 TP2: 76.75 ❌ Invalidation: – Acceptance below 71.90 📝 Summary As long as price holds above demand and reclaims structure, this move is considered a corrective pullback within a larger bullish framework. This is not financial advice. Always manage risk.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by GForecast
2
GBP/USD – A Pullback Before the Uptrend ContinuesHello everyone, my name is Camila. Observing the GBP/USD chart on the H3 timeframe, I assess that the market is moving in line with the characteristics of a healthy uptrend. Price is trading steadily within an ascending channel, with a clear higher high – higher low structure maintained consistently since the beginning of December. This indicates that the dominant capital flow is still supporting the British pound, and the current pullbacks are more technical corrections rather than signals of a trend reversal. From a structural perspective, after approaching the resistance area around 1.3520, price has started to face short-term profit-taking pressure and moved into a corrective phase. This is a completely natural reaction when the market reaches the upper boundary of an ascending channel. I do not see clear signs of distribution at this stage; instead, selling pressure appears to be weakening, suggesting that sellers are not strong enough to break the existing trend structure. The key area to focus on lies at the 1.3420 – 1.3450 support zone. This is a significant confluence area between the ascending channel’s trendline support and a prior demand zone, where price previously consolidated and broke out strongly. If GBP/USD continues to pull back into this area with slowing downside momentum, accompanied by long lower wicks or confirming price action signals, I expect buying interest to return and defend the medium-term bullish structure. From a fundamental perspective, the current macro backdrop remains slightly supportive of GBP. Recent U.S. economic data have failed to provide fresh upside momentum for the USD, while the market continues to adjust expectations toward a more cautious Federal Reserve rate policy outlook. Major outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg have also noted that the U.S. dollar is lacking strong bullish catalysts as year-end risk sentiment improves. In contrast, the Bank of England has maintained a relatively firm stance on inflation, helping the pound retain a more stable underlying foundation. My preferred short-term scenario is for GBP/USD to decline and retest the 1.3420 – 1.3450 zone to rebalance supply and demand. From there, if buying pressure emerges as expected, price could rebound toward the 1.3520 area, with further upside potential toward 1.3580 – 1.3600, aligning with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. In summary, I maintain a bullish bias on GBP/USD. The current market conditions are not ideal for chasing sell positions at resistance, but rather favor a buy-on-dips strategy at support, trading in alignment with the prevailing structure and the dominant capital flow guiding the market. Wishing you successful trading!
Long
by Camila_Roja
7
XAU/USD Technical Breakdown: The Path to $4,520Gold continues to trade within a textbook Ascending Channel, maintaining a strong bullish bias as it carves out a series of higher highs and higher lows. After a sharp recovery from the $4,320 liquidity pool, price action has stabilized above the mid-channel equilibrium, signaling that buyers remain in control. Current Market Structure The pair is currently challenging the immediate resistance near $4,465. Momentum oscillators and price action suggest a high probability of a final impulsive leg to complete the channel extension. The primary focus is the Target Zone ($4,510 – $4,520), which aligns with the upper ascending trendline and a historical psychological ceiling. Key Technical Scenarios The Bullish Expansion (Primary Path): Following the red projection on your chart, XAU/USD is expected to continue its climb toward the $4,520 Target. This move represents a test of the channel's "Overbought" territory. The Rejection & Correction: Upon hitting the $4,520 supply zone, the market is likely to face a sharp rejection. As indicated by your drawing, a failure to break above the channel would trigger a mean-reversion move. The first major support for this pullback lies at $4,489 (prior resistance turned support), followed by the lower channel boundary. Support Cluster: In the event of an early dip, the $4,437 level remains the critical "Line in the Sand." As long as Gold holds above this pivot, the broader uptrend remains structurally sound. Trading Strategy & Risk The current R/R (Risk/Reward) profile favors waiting for the target hit before looking for short-term reversal plays. Traders should watch for rejection candles (long upper wicks) or a bearish engulfing pattern at the $4,510 – $4,520 area to confirm the correction phase. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $4,489 | $4,515 | $4,520 (Target) Support: $4,465 | $4,437 | $4,406
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mathew_TraderGold
4
Bitcoin Today: A Controlled Pullback Within a Healthy UptrendHello, I’m Camila. By closely observing the Bitcoin chart over recent sessions, I see the market moving in line with a very familiar medium-term bullish scenario. After a clear rebound from the lows, price is now trading within a well-controlled bullish structure, forming higher lows along the way. This behavior confirms that underlying buying pressure remains intact, even though short-term momentum has begun to slow as price approaches key supply zones. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has not broken its bullish structure. The current fluctuations are better interpreted as trend-based corrections rather than signs of a reversal. When price was rejected at the upper resistance area, the market responded by pulling back to retest lower support levels—classic price action when larger players reassess the strength and commitment of buyers. On the fundamental side, the broader macro environment continues to keep Bitcoin in a state of balance. USD-related data and U.S. Treasury yields suggest that markets are still waiting for clearer guidance from the Fed regarding next year’s policy path. Elevated interest rates have slowed the short-term rotation back into risk assets. However, major financial media continue to highlight expectations of monetary easing in 2026, alongside quiet institutional accumulation, which provides meaningful support for Bitcoin at lower price levels. The key area I am watching closely in the near term is the 86,500 – 88,000 support zone. This level aligns with both the higher-low structure and the lower boundary of the current bullish formation. In healthy uptrends, the market often follows a familiar pattern: a pullback to support to test demand, followed by a decision on whether the trend is ready to expand further. As long as Bitcoin holds this zone and shows a clear buying response, the bullish structure remains fully intact. Wishing you successful and disciplined trading.
Long
by Camila_Roja
14
XAUUSD - Macro Tailwinds Align with a Technically Intact UptrendHello everyone, Camila here! From a fundamental perspective, gold continues to receive clear support from macroeconomic factors. Expectations that the Fed will maintain a dovish stance throughout 2026 are keeping downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. As yields cool, the opportunity cost of holding gold declines, allowing capital to rotate back into the precious metal. In addition, ongoing geopolitical risks and unresolved global economic uncertainties mean that gold remains a preferred defensive asset. From a technical standpoint, I see no signs of a trend reversal at this stage. On the H4 timeframe, the bullish structure remains firmly intact, with a clear sequence of higher lows. The ascending trendline extending from November to the present continues to be respected, indicating that buying pressure still dominates the medium-term market direction. The 4.28x–4.30x price zone plays a critical role in the overall structure. This area previously acted as strong resistance and has now successfully flipped into support after being broken. Repeated price reactions and rebounds from this zone suggest that the market is accepting a higher price base, rather than entering a distribution phase. Following the sharp correction from the recent peak, price behavior indicates that selling pressure has lost momentum. Instead of extending lower, price has begun to consolidate and form a structure resembling an inverse Head & Shoulders. The right shoulder remains relatively tight, signaling weakening bearish pressure and active supply absorption. This phase often represents a “pause” before the primary trend resumes. My preferred short-term scenario is a modest break above the upper resistance, followed by a pullback to retest the newly broken area. If the underlying support continues to hold, this retracement should remain purely technical. In that case, gold would have a solid foundation to extend its advance toward the 4.49x region in the coming sessions. Wishing you successful trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Camila_Roja
9
Gold’s Bounce Looks Strong — But Is This a Trap Before the Next Gold has staged a sharp rebound from the 4,300–4,310 support zone, forming a sequence of higher lows (HL) after a prior impulsive sell-off. This confirms that short-term selling pressure has eased and buyers are actively defending the lower boundary of the range. However, despite the strong bullish candles, the broader structure remains corrective, not impulsive. Price is still trading below the key resistance band at 4,465–4,476, which previously acted as a major supply zone. Until this area is reclaimed and accepted, upside moves should be treated as retracements within a larger consolidation, not trend continuation. The current rally has stalled near 4,440–4,445, a minor internal resistance where price previously broke down. The projected path on the chart highlights a likely pullback scenario, with price potentially rotating lower to fill the highlighted inefficiency / GAP zone around 4,340–4,360. This zone aligns well with short-term mean reversion and prior liquidity imbalance. Key technical scenarios: - Bullish continuation (lower probability for now): A clean break and hold above 4,476 would invalidate the corrective structure and reopen upside toward 4,520 → 4,550 (ATH area). - Base-case scenario: Rejection below resistance leads to a pullback toward the GAP zone, followed by range trading. - Bearish risk: Loss of 4,300 support would expose deeper downside and confirm the rally as a corrective bounce only. Macro Drivers Impacting Gold From a macro perspective, gold remains highly sensitive to global risk and liquidity conditions: - Geopolitical risk / War premium: Ongoing geopolitical tensions (Middle East, Eastern Europe) continue to provide structural support for gold. Any escalation tends to trigger safe-haven flows, limiting downside but not necessarily driving immediate breakouts unless risk sharply deteriorates. - PMI & growth data: Recent soft PMI readings in major economies signal slowing growth momentum. Weak manufacturing and services data typically support gold through lower real yield expectations, but this effect is gradual rather than explosive. - Monetary policy & USD dynamics: Expectations around the Federal Reserve remain the dominant driver. As long as rates stay restrictive and the USD remains firm, gold upside is capped near resistance. Clear dovish shifts or falling real yields would be required for a sustained breakout. - Risk-on vs risk-off balance: Current market conditions suggest mixed sentiment — enough uncertainty to support gold on dips, but not enough stress to trigger a clean trend breakout. Summary Gold is technically recovering, but strategically still range-bound. The rebound from support is valid, yet price is approaching a high-risk resistance zone where rejection remains likely unless macro conditions decisively shift. Until gold reclaims and holds above 4,476, the higher-probability outcome is consolidation with pullbacks, not a straight-line move to new highs. Traders should remain disciplined and responsive to both price behavior at resistance and incoming macro catalysts.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
Gold’s Next Move Depends on PMIOn the H1 timeframe, the key focus is the clean reclaim and hold above the 4,390–4,405 support zone, which is now acting as the market’s “base” after the recent swing low. Price has already pushed back above the EMA34/EMA89 cluster, and the fact that candles are stabilizing above this green band suggests the move is recovery + acceptance, not a random bounce. Technically, the structure is constructive as long as gold holds this reclaimed support. The chart shows a clear step-by-step pathway: a controlled pullback into support, followed by continuation into the marked targets. The first real test remains the 4,430–4,460 supply area (Resistance zone). If price accepts above that zone (not just a wick), upside targets become well-defined and mechanically consistent with prior swing levels. Support zone (must hold): 4,390–4,405 This is the pivot. A successful retest here keeps the bullish continuation scenario valid. Resistance zone /decision area: ~4,430–4,460 This is where breakouts often fail first. Acceptance above is required for continuation. Targets: Target 1: 4,459.703 Target 2: 4,499.067 Target 3: 4,524.117 Old ATH region: ~4,549.465 How the structure reads - The market is currently in a recovery leg with price holding above a reclaimed support shelf. - As long as pullbacks remain corrective and buyers defend 4,390–4,405, the path of least resistance stays up toward Target 1, then a retest, then continuation toward Target 2 / Target 3. PMI is one of the cleanest short-term drivers for USD + yields, which directly impacts gold. - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 48.2 (below 50 = contraction), reinforcing “growth cooling” and typically supporting gold through softer yields / softer USD when markets price easier policy expectations. - The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI has also been signaling expansion but with recent moderation (December data described as slower improvement / lower reading vs prior month depending on release), which keeps markets sensitive to “surprise risk” in the next PMI prints. - Europe remains in contraction (Eurozone manufacturing PMI 48.8), which can add a risk-off undertone at times another background tailwind for gold if USD strength does not dominate. Practical implication for this chart: Weaker-than-expected PMI → higher probability gold holds 4,390–4,405 and breaks into Target 1 /Target 2. Stronger-than-expected PMI → higher probability of a rejection from the resistance zone and a deeper retest of the support band before continuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RexTraderGOLD
Gold Nears $4,440 — Is This a Real Breakout or ........ OANDA:XAUUSD has extended its rebound aggressively, pushing into the $4,430–$4,440 area after a sharp recovery from the prior sell-off. The speed of the bounce is notable, but price is now approaching a technically sensitive zone where upside momentum historically begins to stall. At this stage, the market is no longer trading in “easy trend” conditions; instead, it is transitioning into a decision area where positioning matters more than direction. Key Resistance and Price Reaction The $4,400–$4,440 region is acting as a clear resistance band. This level previously served as a breakdown point and is now being retested from below — a classic role-reversal zone. The most recent candles show reduced follow-through and early signs of hesitation, suggesting that buy-side momentum is slowing as price runs into resting supply. Without a clean impulsive break and acceptance above this level, upside continuation remains questionable. Gap Structure and Mean-Reversion Risk Below current price lies a clearly defined inefficiency (GAP) zone, created by the impulsive upside move. Markets rarely leave such gaps unresolved, especially when they form after emotional rebounds. From a structural perspective, this gap represents unfinished business — an area where price may return to rebalance liquidity before choosing a sustained directional move. The highlighted “fill gap” area aligns well with prior consolidation, increasing its technical relevance. Support Zone and Downside Scenarios The broader support zone around $4,300 remains the key downside magnet. If price fails to hold above $4,400 and begins to roll over, a controlled pullback toward the gap is the first logical scenario. A deeper retracement into the $4,300 support zone would still be considered corrective rather than trend-breaking, as long as buyers defend that area with structure and volume. Trend Structure Assessment Despite the short-term pullback risk, the higher-timeframe structure remains constructive. Higher lows are still intact, and price continues to trade above major dynamic supports. However, from a professional trading perspective, this is no longer a location to chase longs. Risk-to-reward now favors patience — either waiting for confirmation above resistance or looking for reactions at lower, more favorable levels. Technical Conclusion Gold is currently at a crossroads. A clean breakout and acceptance above $4,440 would invalidate the gap-reversion thesis and open the door for continuation higher. Conversely, failure at this level increases the probability of a corrective move toward the gap and potentially the $4,300 support zone. Until one of these scenarios confirms, gold remains in a high-risk, low-conviction zone where discipline matters more than bias.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Gold_Dominator
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