CADJPY Bounce Plan – Dual Target SetupPrice is now reacting near the 108.144 entry zone, just above strong support at 107.545.
If this zone holds, I’m expecting a bullish move to trigger toward the upside targets.
🎯 Targets in Focus:
📌 Expect 1: 109.010
📌 Expect 2: 109.721
If price breaks above 109.010 and forms a base, I’ll look for a second leg toward 109.721.
- Entry Level: 108.144
- Support Zone: 107.545 (key invalidation area)
- Confirmation: Bullish candle or structure shift around 108.10 zone
Watching RSI and reaction at current level for early confirmation.
CADJPY
CAD/JPY GOING LONG! BUT FOR HOW LONG? I want to document this possible direction because from what I am seeing this looks very probable.
When it comes to this pair we have seen a great push to the upside that looked very steady until the disaster of 10/10 but I believe we will bounce long! but for how long is the good question, I would pay attention to this pair due to the fact that there is no real impactful news this week for either pair! Meaning some good foundational trades should be possible but again we follow price action and then move a long side! My theory is-
Price will push down to .786 or .619 level and then bounce back up for a pullback or correction! (for my ICC) this is where I will be looking to do longs if I see HH N HL on smaller time frames up until critical prices like 108.497 and 108.962 and above! one of these key levels will either hold and push down even further or it will be broken and price will continue!
tell me your feed back and thoughts on this trading idea.
CAD/JPY: Thief’s Playbook or Trap Zone? A Full Technical + Macro🚨 CAD/JPY – “Loonie vs Yen” Bank Heist Plan 🏦💸 (Swing/Day Trade)
📊 Market Overview (02 Sept 2025, Real-Time Data)
Daily Change: +0.26% ⬆️
52-Week Range: 101.24 – 111.57
📈 Technical Snapshot
RSI (14-Day): 47.9 (Neutral zone)
Moving Averages: Price trading below 50 & 200 SMA → bearish bias on higher TF
Volatility: Low (0.35%) = Possible breakout setup
Technical Signal: Mixed, leaning SELL from MA cluster
🧠 Sentiment & Positioning
Retail Traders: Split views (mixed long/short positions)
Institutions: Increasing net-long JPY exposure for 3rd consecutive week
Fear & Greed Index: 61/100 (Greed mode)
🏦 Fundamental & Macro Heist Briefing:
Like every great “operation,” CAD/JPY’s moves depend on central banks, commodities, and macro flows:
🇯🇵 Bank of Japan (BoJ)
Gradually exiting ultra-loose policy, supported by stronger wage growth & sticky inflation.
A hawkish BoJ = stronger yen = tighter barricades for our heist 🚔.
🇨🇦 Bank of Canada (BoC)
Balancing rate cuts with sticky inflation & housing concerns.
CAD remains highly correlated with oil prices → if crude rallies, it reloads the Loonie’s ammo 🛢️💥.
🇺🇸 Federal Reserve Impact
Markets pricing a 91% chance of September rate cut.
A softer USD can spill into CAD pairs, but safe-haven flows may still favor JPY.
Commodities & Oil Connection
CAD has high sensitivity to oil. WTI stability above $75 supports the Canadian dollar.
Falling crude = weak CAD = smoother entry route for JPY “detectives.”
Risk Appetite / Global Macro
Equities in greed mode (S&P 500 holding above 125-day MA).
Low VIX (14.2) → calm environment, but lurking volatility traps ahead.
Junk bond demand signaling investors willing to take risk → CAD benefits in risk-on.
Macro Score → Neutral to slightly bearish for CAD/JPY, as JPY strength from BoJ policy may outpace CAD support from oil.
Macro:
BoJ staying hawkish ⚔️ (inflation + wage growth)
Fed tilting dovish 🕊️ (rate cut odds ~91% in Sept)
CAD/JPY Macro Score → Neutral to Slightly Bearish
🎯 Thief’s Playbook (Educational Trading Blueprint)
This is a “layering / DCA style” plan 🧩 – using multiple limit orders like setting up escape routes in a heist:
Layer Entries (Example levels):
💰 106.000
💰 106.500
💰 106.800
💰 107.000
(you can adjust & add more “layers” based on risk appetite)
Risk Management:
🛑 “Thief Stop” suggested around 105.500 (always adjust to your own risk model)
Profit Objective:
🎯 Potential upside checkpoint near 109.000 (take the bag & escape before the police barricade 🚔)
🌍 Macro & Outlook
Short-Term → Bearish tilt (JPY strength risk)
Medium-Term → Neutral range (106 – 111)
Long-Term → Potential pressure from broader JPY cycles
🐂🐻 Final Take
CAD/JPY sits in a cautious zone – sentiment is mixed, with short-term JPY strength possible. But with layered entries, disciplined SL, and planned exits, traders can map their “heist strategy” like a pro.
📌 Related Pairs to Watch
FX:USDJPY
OANDA:EURJPY
OANDA:GBPJPY
OANDA:AUDJPY
OANDA:CADCHF
#CADJPY #Forex #SwingTrading #DayTrading #PriceAction #Yen #Loonie #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingCommunity #MarketOutlook
CADJPY Fading the Rally Bears Target 105.40 After Sharp ReversalCADJPY surged to fresh highs near 109.70 but quickly lost momentum, with sellers stepping in and pushing the pair lower. This sharp rejection hints at a possible top formation, especially as oil prices soften and Canadian data highlight labor market slack. With the Bank of Japan still dovish but domestic politics increasing uncertainty, CADJPY now looks vulnerable to deeper retracements, bringing key support zones into focus.
Current Bias
Bearish – Recent rejection at resistance strengthens the case for a corrective move lower toward 107.30 and potentially 105.40.
Key Fundamental Drivers
Canada: September labor force survey showed employment gains (+60k) but unemployment steady at 7.1%, signaling economic slack despite wage growth cooling to ~3.3% y/y.
Japan: BOJ policy remains accommodative, but political uncertainty and wage negotiations add a backdrop of yen volatility.
Commodities: Oil, Canada’s key export, has softened from recent highs, weighing on CAD support.
Macro Context
Interest Rates: BoC seen as patient, with markets pricing slower easing despite elevated unemployment. BOJ stays dovish, but political pressures could gradually shift expectations.
Economic Growth: Canada is slowing, while Japan’s growth remains modest but wage-driven improvements keep the yen in play.
Geopolitics & Trade: Trump tariffs and global trade risks weigh more heavily on CAD than JPY, as Japan benefits from safe-haven flows.
Primary Risk to the Trend
A sharp rebound in oil or a dovish shift in BoJ communication could limit JPY gains and re-strengthen CADJPY.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
Canada CPI – inflation readings will determine how patient the BoC can remain.
BOJ commentary – any shift in tone on policy normalization could lift JPY across the board.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
CADJPY tends to be a lagger, following moves in oil and USDJPY. It often amplifies volatility seen in broader JPY crosses like EURJPY and GBPJPY.
Key Levels
Support Levels:
107.30
105.40
Resistance Levels:
109.20
110.10
Stop Loss (SL): 110.10
Take Profit (TP): 105.40
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
CADJPY has shifted into bearish territory after rejecting 109.70, with momentum now pointing to downside targets at 107.30 and 105.40. The fundamental backdrop favors JPY resilience amid global risk caution and CAD softness tied to weaker oil and labor slack. A protective stop sits at 110.10, while take profit aligns with the 105.40 zone. Keep an eye on Canada CPI and BOJ rhetoric, as either could trigger sharp swings.
CADJPY FREE SIGNAL|LONG|
✅CADJPY forms a bullish structure after reclaiming the demand level, signaling Smart Money interest in premium buys. Liquidity sweep below 108.800 confirms accumulation before a move toward 109.460 target.
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Entry: 109.051
Stop Loss: 108.664
Take Profit: 109.460
Time Frame: 7H
—————————
LONG🚀
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Stop!Loss|Market View: USDCAD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the USDCAD currency pair☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 1.39754
💰TP: 1.40513
⛔️SL: 1.39279
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: The bullish potential is still alive for USDCAD. Currently, we are seeing active price accumulation near short-term resistance at 1.39580, which indicates buyers are taking the initiative. A potential buy trade is being considered based on a breakout of the upper accumulation boundary. In the mid-term, growth to 1.42000 and 1.43000 is expected.
Thanks for your support 🚀
Profits for all ✅
❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
Could we see a bearish reversal?CAD/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 109.28
1st Support: 107.99
1st Resistance: 109.75
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
CADJPY Is Going Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for CADJPY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 107.608.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 109.447 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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CADJPY - Expecting Bullish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Strong bullish momentum.
No opposite signs.
Until the two Fibonacci support zones hold I expect the price to move higher further.
If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀
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CADJPY Set for October Crash? Institutions Bet Big on Yen 📊 Multi-Factor Analysis – CADJPY
COT Data
JPY: Net long positions are strongly increasing → Non-Commercial long +14.7K, Commercial long +12K. Institutional flows favor the Yen, confirming a bullish bias on JPY.
CAD: Heavy liquidation → Commercial longs -49K, shorts -59K, Non-Commercial longs decreasing (-2.9K). Net positioning shows bearish sentiment on CAD, with a clear prevalence of short exposure among speculators.
👉 Interpretation: Institutional flows point toward a strong JPY and weak CAD → bearish bias on CADJPY.
Seasonality
CAD: Historically weak in October (negative averages in 20Y and 15Y, worsening in 5Y and 2Y).
JPY: Historically strong in October, especially on short-term frames (5Y and 2Y very bullish).
👉 Interpretation: Seasonality supports a bearish scenario on CADJPY during October.
Retail Sentiment
90% Long vs 10% Short on CADJPY.
👉 Extreme retail long positioning = contrarian bearish signal → potential for further downside pressure.
Technical Analysis
CADJPY broke below the descending trendline.
Currently trading inside the weekly demand zone (105–106), acting as short-term support.
RSI oversold → likely technical bounce toward 106.8–107.2 (supply + trendline) before continuation lower.
Primary structure remains bearish, with medium-term targets at 104.80–105.00.
CAD/JPY: Recovery in Progress with Key Resistance Levels AheadCAD/JPY has bounced from the 105.25 low following a recent selloff and is now climbing back within the ascending channel. Price action is forming a recovery structure, with momentum building toward the 106.50–107.00 resistance zone.
Maintaining support above the 105.60–105.80 area is crucial for the bullish outlook to remain intact. If momentum holds, the pair may extend the move into a broader reversal, targeting the higher 107.90 resistance level in the sessions ahead.
Stop!Loss|Market View: USDCAD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the USDCAD currency pair☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 1.39703
💰TP: 1.40349
⛔️SL: 1.39065
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: The price compression toward the 1.39500 resistance area indicates a potential upside breakout. Given the recent breakout of the 1.37305 - 1.38760 accumulation, a more significant upward movement to 1.4, 1.41, and then 1.43 is also expected. A conservative entry would be best looked for after the price immediately closes above 1.39500.
Thanks for your support 🚀
Profits for all ✅
❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
CADJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for CADJPY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 107.266.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 106.211 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CADJPY Forming Ascending TrendlineCADJPY is currently trading around 105.50 after breaking below its long-term ascending trendline on the daily chart. This bearish breakdown signals potential continuation toward lower levels, with sellers gaining momentum after several failed attempts to sustain above 107.00. The rejection at higher levels indicates exhaustion from buyers, leaving room for the pair to retrace deeper toward the 102.00–101.00 support zone in the coming weeks.
From a fundamental angle, the Canadian dollar is under pressure as oil prices face renewed volatility due to uncertain global demand and fluctuating supply dynamics. At the same time, the Japanese yen is drawing safe-haven demand, especially as global investors remain cautious ahead of central bank guidance. With the Bank of Japan signaling a gradual shift from ultra-loose policy and the Bank of Canada holding a cautious stance due to softer economic data, the yen has an edge in the current risk environment.
Technically, the clean break of the ascending trendline confirms a potential trend reversal, and the bearish momentum is expected to strengthen if the pair stays below 106.00. Sellers will be eyeing the 103.50 and 101.00 zones as profit targets, while any pullback toward 106.80–107.30 is likely to attract fresh supply.
Traders should remain alert to upcoming Canadian employment and inflation data, as well as BOJ policy remarks, which could bring sharp volatility. For now, downside setups remain favorable while price action holds below the broken trendline, offering solid profit opportunities toward key support levels.
CADJPY Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear friends,
CADJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 106.74 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 107.03
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CADJPY: Bulls Will Push
Balance of buyers and sellers on the CADJPY pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the buyers, therefore is it only natural that we go long on the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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CADJPY Momentum Stalls, Sellers Look for ControlCADJPY has tested the 107.40 zone but failed to sustain a breakout, suggesting fading bullish momentum. With oil prices struggling to find direction and the yen attempting to stabilize after weeks of weakness, sellers are circling. The chart structure points to a potential corrective leg lower if the pair breaks under near-term support.
Current Bias
Bearish – the pair shows signs of exhaustion near resistance, with downside levels now in focus.
Key Fundamental Drivers
Bank of Japan: Still accommodative, but the risk of verbal intervention increases as yen weakness deepens.
Bank of Canada: Expected to lean dovish after weak GDP and labor data, leaving CAD vulnerable.
Oil Prices: CAD remains tied to energy performance; lower oil tends to weaken CAD.
Macro Context
Interest Rates: BoC rate cut bets have increased, while BoJ policy remains ultra-loose, although rising JGB yields may offer some yen support.
Growth Trends: Canadian economy shows signs of stagflation risk (weak growth, sticky inflation), reducing CAD’s appeal.
Commodity Flows: Oil volatility directly impacts CADJPY, with recent weakness adding to pressure.
Geopolitics: Energy trade flows and Middle East tensions could ripple into oil and CAD sentiment.
Primary Risk to the Trend
A sharp rebound in oil prices or BoJ hesitation to tolerate further yen strength could invalidate the bearish case.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
Canada GDP and inflation reports
BoJ commentary/intervention signals
OPEC-related oil output headlines
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
CADJPY often acts as a lagger, following moves in oil and broader yen crosses like USDJPY and EURJPY. Watch USDJPY for early signals on yen direction and oil prices for CAD momentum.
Key Levels
Support Levels: 106.45, 105.95, 104.98
Resistance Levels: 107.44, 108.05
Stop Loss (SL): 108.05 (above recent highs)
Take Profit (TP): 106.45 (first target), 105.95 (secondary target), 104.98 (extended target)
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
CADJPY carries a bearish bias as resistance holds at 107.40–108.00 and sellers push for a move toward 106.45 and below. Stop loss sits just above 108.05 to protect against false breakouts, while take profit levels extend toward 105.95 and 104.98. The pair remains heavily influenced by oil and yen sentiment, making it more of a lagger than a leader. Watch oil headlines and BoJ remarks closely, as they could shift momentum quickly.
CADJPY On The Rise! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the CADJPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 107.22
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 107.37
My Stop Loss - 107.13
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CAD-JPY Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CADJPY rejects a horizontal supply area after a fakeout sweep, signaling SMC distribution. Bears aim to drive price lower into liquidity resting near 107.27. Time Frame 2H.
-------------------
Stop Loss: 107.616
Take Profit: 107.271
Entry: 107.435
Time Frame: 2H
-------------------
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
CADJPY: Bearish Forecast & Outlook
The price of CADJPY will most likely collapse soon enough, due to the supply beginning to exceed demand which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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