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CADJPY Momentum Stalls, Sellers Look for ControlCADJPY has tested the 107.40 zone but failed to sustain a breakout, suggesting fading bullish momentum. With oil prices struggling to find direction and the yen attempting to stabilize after weeks of weakness, sellers are circling. The chart structure points to a potential corrective leg lower if the pair breaks under near-term support. Current Bias Bearish – the pair shows signs of exhaustion near resistance, with downside levels now in focus. Key Fundamental Drivers Bank of Japan: Still accommodative, but the risk of verbal intervention increases as yen weakness deepens. Bank of Canada: Expected to lean dovish after weak GDP and labor data, leaving CAD vulnerable. Oil Prices: CAD remains tied to energy performance; lower oil tends to weaken CAD. Macro Context Interest Rates: BoC rate cut bets have increased, while BoJ policy remains ultra-loose, although rising JGB yields may offer some yen support. Growth Trends: Canadian economy shows signs of stagflation risk (weak growth, sticky inflation), reducing CAD’s appeal. Commodity Flows: Oil volatility directly impacts CADJPY, with recent weakness adding to pressure. Geopolitics: Energy trade flows and Middle East tensions could ripple into oil and CAD sentiment. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp rebound in oil prices or BoJ hesitation to tolerate further yen strength could invalidate the bearish case. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada GDP and inflation reports BoJ commentary/intervention signals OPEC-related oil output headlines Leader/Lagger Dynamics CADJPY often acts as a lagger, following moves in oil and broader yen crosses like USDJPY and EURJPY. Watch USDJPY for early signals on yen direction and oil prices for CAD momentum. Key Levels Support Levels: 106.45, 105.95, 104.98 Resistance Levels: 107.44, 108.05 Stop Loss (SL): 108.05 (above recent highs) Take Profit (TP): 106.45 (first target), 105.95 (secondary target), 104.98 (extended target) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints CADJPY carries a bearish bias as resistance holds at 107.40–108.00 and sellers push for a move toward 106.45 and below. Stop loss sits just above 108.05 to protect against false breakouts, while take profit levels extend toward 105.95 and 104.98. The pair remains heavily influenced by oil and yen sentiment, making it more of a lagger than a leader. Watch oil headlines and BoJ remarks closely, as they could shift momentum quickly.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
CADJPY Sellers Target Key Support as Momentum FadesCADJPY has slipped after failing to sustain momentum above the 107 handle, and the price action now leans toward renewed downside pressure. The chart structure shows repeated rejections and lower highs forming, which opens the door for a deeper pullback. With oil prices struggling to hold gains and JPY catching periodic safe-haven bids, this cross looks vulnerable to further declines. Current Bias Bearish – CADJPY is showing weakness with sellers eyeing lower support levels. Key Fundamental Drivers CAD: Weak Canadian labor market data and rising BoC rate cut expectations pressure CAD. Oil prices remain soft, removing an important support pillar. JPY: The yen continues to benefit from safe-haven demand, especially during global risk-off waves and BoJ’s gradual steps toward yield control adjustments. Yield spreads: Narrowing spreads between CAD and JPY rates reduce CADJPY’s carry appeal. Macro Context Interest rates: The BoC is leaning dovish after weak jobs and growth numbers, while the BoJ’s cautious shift away from ultra-loose policy provides structural support to the yen. Growth trends: Canada faces slowing growth amid weaker domestic demand, while Japan’s growth remains modest but steady. Commodities: Oil weakness weighs on CAD. Geopolitical: Risk-off events (tariff disputes, Middle East tensions) tend to favor JPY strength, amplifying CADJPY downside. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp recovery in oil prices or a stronger-than-expected Canadian economic release could lift CAD and cap downside momentum in this pair. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada CPI and retail sales for confirmation of BoC’s dovish outlook. BoJ policy commentary for clarity on yield control and inflation stance. Leader/Lagger Dynamics CADJPY tends to act as a lagger, often following broader risk sentiment and oil price movements. It also reacts to USDJPY moves, meaning JPY flows largely set the pace. Key Levels Support Levels: 105.95, 104.98 Resistance Levels: 106.93, 107.54 Stop Loss (SL): 107.54 (above resistance zone) Take Profit (TP): 104.98 (major support) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints CADJPY bias is bearish, with SL set at 107.54 and TP aimed at 104.98. Oil weakness, dovish BoC expectations, and resilient JPY flows all lean in favor of further downside. The key watchpoints are Canada’s CPI/retail sales and BoJ commentary. Unless oil rebounds strongly, sellers are likely to stay in control, with price action favoring a test of 105.95 and potentially 104.98.
Short
by ultreosforex
2
CADJPY Rejection at Key Supply Zone – Bearish Move Ahead?Hello Traders! 👋 CADJPY is showing signs of weakness after testing the 107.478 – 108.504 supply zone. Price broke below the ascending trendline and is now retesting it as resistance. If this rejection holds, we could see strong bearish momentum pushing price toward the 104.644 support zone. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Zone: 107.478 – 108.504 Current Price: 106.85 Next Bearish Target: 104.644 ⚡ Bias: Bearish if rejection holds below 107.478. A clean close above 108.504 would invalidate this setup. 📌 Technical Confluence: Trendline break ✅ Supply zone retest ✅ Lower highs forming ✅ What do you think? Will CADJPY respect this supply zone and drop, or will the bulls reclaim control? 💬 Drop your thoughts below & let’s discuss! 👍 Don’t forget to like, share, and follow for more setups. ❤️
Short
by FrankFx14
Potential CADJPY downside 🚨 Potential Forex trade: CADJPY short 🚨 TA: The weekly chart is forming lower swing highs The daily has broken diagonal support and is testing the area as resistance FA: The BOC's rate cutting may continue. Unemployment remains high and is continuing to rise, while GDP growth is low. The yen may strengthen if stock markets continue to fall, or if the bond yield crisis continues, due to its safe-haven status. I'm looking for confirmation on lower time-frames.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
CAD/JPY - Channel Breakout (29.08.2025)The CAD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 106.47 2nd Support – 106.30 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
28
CADJPY Sellers Defend Resistance, Bears Eye Deeper CorrectionCADJPY is stalling once again at the 107.10–107.50 resistance zone, where sellers have stepped in multiple times over the past sessions. Price is forming a clear rejection pattern after retesting supply, suggesting that momentum is shifting in favor of the bears. With crude oil volatility weighing on CAD and safe-haven demand supporting JPY, this setup looks poised for a potential downside leg. Current Bias Bearish — short-term rejections at resistance open the door for a move lower toward 106.30 and 105.20. Key Fundamental Drivers Crude oil dynamics: CAD’s correlation with oil remains strong; lower oil prices weaken CAD and reinforce downside risk in CADJPY. BoJ normalization risks: Any hint of a shift in Japanese monetary policy or discussions around yield control tends to boost JPY. Risk sentiment: Risk-off flows typically drive JPY higher, while CAD suffers under global growth concerns. Macro Context Interest rate expectations: BoC is seen as close to its peak rate, with limited room for further hikes, while the BoJ is slowly signaling normalization steps. Economic growth: Canada’s growth is vulnerable to commodity fluctuations, while Japan’s economy, though modest, is gaining traction from external demand and JPY’s relative undervaluation. Commodity flows: Oil weakness puts pressure on CAD, while defensive flows boost JPY. Geopolitical themes: Tariffs, trade disruptions, or Middle East tensions could amplify demand for JPY as a safe haven. Primary Risk to the Trend A strong rebound in crude oil or dovish BoJ messaging could support CADJPY and push the pair back above 107.50 resistance, invalidating the bearish setup. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada CPI / Retail Sales (key for BoC policy outlook) BoJ statements on monetary policy or FX stability Leader/Lagger Dynamics CADJPY often trades as a lagger, following oil and USDJPY trends. It tends to be influenced by WTI crude prices and USDJPY moves, which dictate directional bias. Key Levels Support Levels: 106.35, 105.95, 105.20 Resistance Levels: 107.10, 107.50 Stop Loss (SL): 107.55 Take Profit (TP): 106.35 (first target), 105.20 (extended target) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints CADJPY is showing rejection at a major resistance zone, with sellers stepping in to cap upside momentum. The bearish bias remains valid as long as the pair stays below 107.50, with downside targets set at 106.35 and 105.20. A stop loss above 107.55 protects against a breakout reversal, while oil price fluctuations and BoJ rhetoric remain the most important watchpoints. Unless crude oil rallies sharply or Japan signals dovish backpedaling, the path of least resistance appears to favor the bears.
Short
by ultreosforex
CADJPY - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermM15 - Strong bearish move. No opposite signs. Currently it looks like a pullback is happening. Expecting bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by VladimirRibakov
Bearish Bias Holds as Oil Rises & Rate Differentials NarrowUSDCAD – Bearish Bias Holds as Oil Rises & Rate Differentials Narrow 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to gain ground this week, supported by two key drivers: Crude oil prices surged due to Middle East tensions and renewed demand optimism — boosting CAD as a commodity-linked currency. US-Canada yield spreads narrowed, following revised expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may keep rates higher for longer, while the Fed is seen pausing. Short-term event risks to watch: 🇨🇦 Canadian Manufacturing Sales data today at 13:30 GMT 🇨🇦 G7 Summit in Alberta from June 15–17, which may influence oil and energy policy sentiment Our latest fair value estimate for USDCAD has shifted lower to 1.3613, reflecting tighter rate spreads and stronger oil. Technical structure remains tilted to the downside. 📉 Technical Outlook – M30 Chart 🔹 Structure: Price remains in a short-term downtrend, with a well-defined descending trendline capping upside attempts. The pair recently tested the EMA 89–200 zone and failed, suggesting continued bearish pressure. 🔹 Key Zones: Dynamic Resistance: 1.3638 – 1.3660 (trendline + EMA cluster) Support Area: 1.3592 → 1.3578 A break below 1.3578 could expose deeper downside toward 1.3420 (September lows) 🔹 Momentum Indicators: RSI has bounced from oversold (30) but remains in bearish territory. The current rebound looks corrective — potentially a dead cat bounce. 🧠 Market Sentiment Flows favour commodity-backed currencies like CAD, especially with energy prices rising. USD has weakened slightly as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady next week. Sentiment is leaning toward "sell the rallies" on USDCAD for now. 🎯 Trade Setup Scenarios 🔻 SELL SCENARIO – If price retests and rejects 1.3638 – 1.3660 Entry: 1.3640 – 1.3655 Stop-Loss: 1.3685 Targets: 1.3592 → 1.3578 → 1.3510 🔺 BUY SCENARIO – If strong bullish reaction occurs at 1.3592 – 1.3578 Entry: 1.3580 Stop-Loss: 1.3545 Targets: 1.3620 → 1.3640 ⚠️ Focus on trend continuation. Only consider buys if clear rejection or bullish confirmation appears at support. ✅ Conclusion The current trend in USDCAD favours sellers, with fundamental momentum supporting CAD via higher oil and narrowing yield differentials. Key resistance at 1.3638–1.3660 remains the pivot zone to monitor. With Canadian data and the G7 Summit ahead, volatility could increase.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
Short CADJPY - a little more patience requiredI have been waiting and watching this pair on the daily t/f for several weeks now. Like some people like to say "waiting like a sniper", lol. Seriously, I became more interested since it formed a flat bottom because I like to trade BO (breakouts) or BO with a pullback. Note that this is a daily chart and price is below the 200sma. I expect price to continue to make lower highs and break out to occur late this week, possibly next week. Hopefully, you have your own plan on how you trade breakouts. Good luck if you will trade this. This is not a trade recommendation; it’s merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Short
by Trading_Vista
4
CADJPY analysis for a Sell!!!!Here’s a sell-side analysis for CAD/JPY on the 2H chart based on your updated screenshot: ⸻ Pair: CAD/JPY Timeframe: 2H Current Price: ~104.656 Market Bias: Short-term bearish shift from previous bullish trend ⸻ Sell Analysis Overview: 1. Bearish Structure Forming Below 105.300–105.600 • Price recently broke below a major support zone (~105.300–105.600), which is now turning into a resistance zone. • This rejection aligns with the concept of structure flipping — previous support now acting as resistance. • The marked “Sell Structure Forming Below” zone highlights this key area for short positions on pullbacks. 2. Multiple Rejections at 105.866 • There are clear lower highs forming, with repeated rejections around 105.866 (circled). • Each attempt to push higher has failed, showing strong bearish pressure and exhaustion from buyers. 3. Breakdown of Key Moving Averages • Price has closed below both the 50 EMA and 100 EMA, which are beginning to curl downward — a common signal of a trend reversal. • Momentum has shifted, and sellers are currently in control. 4. Liquidity Grab + Breakdown • After a false breakout to the upside, price grabbed liquidity around 105.866 and quickly reversed. • This aligns with smart money behavior: sweeping highs before dropping — a classic bearish trap. 5. Short-Term Target Zone • The current bearish move has a clear downside target in the 103.600–103.800 zone, which is marked as an “Area of Liquidity”. • If this zone breaks cleanly, extended targets sit around 101.800–101.400, where fresh demand and buy structure are likely to form. ⸻ Sell Plan & Risk Management: • Entry Idea: Wait for a pullback into the 105.300–105.600 zone to look for bearish confirmation (e.g., bearish engulfing, rejection wick). • Stop Loss: Above 105.866 (invalidates structure) • Take Profit Levels: • TP1: 103.600 (liquidity zone) • TP2: 101.800 (demand zone) • TP3: 101.400 (long-term structure support) ⸻ Final Thoughts: CAD/JPY is now showing early signs of a bearish trend reversal after a clean breakdown of structure and liquidity sweep at highs. As long as the price remains below 105.600, the bias remains bearish. A bounce from 104.500 could temporarily delay the drop, but deeper downside is likely if that level gives way.
Short
by DBFXTrader
CADJPY Analysis For A SELL Idea!!!!CADJPY - 4H Chart Sell Analysis Market Structure • The overall structure is bearish, with price forming lower highs and lower lows. • Price attempted to rally but failed to break above 105.000, a major supply zone and previous support turned resistance. • The most recent push above the highs appears to be a liquidity grab, followed by a strong rejection. Supply & Resistance Zones • Price reacted strongly to a key supply zone around 104.500 - 105.000. • Multiple rejections and wicks in this zone suggest heavy selling interest. • A fake breakout (bull trap) is visible, where buyers got trapped above resistance before a bearish move resumed. Price Action Confirmation • The bearish engulfing candle after the liquidity grab suggests a potential shift in momentum. • Price broke below a minor support level and is currently retesting it, aligning with a lower high formation. • The 50 EMA (blue line) is acting as dynamic resistance, further supporting the bearish bias. Target Zones • First target: 103.000 – a key intraday support and minor demand zone. • Main target: 102.000 - 101.800 – a strong demand area and previous low where price may look to rebalance and tap liquidity. Trade Setup • Entry: Around 104.000 - 104.100 after a confirmed retest of broken support. • Stop Loss: Above 104.500 - 104.700, outside the recent supply zone. • Take Profit: Partial at 103.000, final TP at 102.000. Confluences 1. Bearish trend continuation. 2. Liquidity grab above previous highs (105.000 area). 3. Rejection from major supply zone. 4. EMA resistance and structural confirmation of lower high. Final Outlook • If price stays below 104.300, sellers likely maintain control. • A clean break below 103.500 will confirm further downside. • A move and close above 105.000 would invalidate this sell setup.
Short
by DBFXTrader
CADJPY: Bearish Outlook as BOJ Stays HawkishHey Realistic Traders! BOJ’s Hawkish Stance, Will OANDA:CADJPY Turn More Bearish? Let’s Dive into the Analysis... Technical analysis On the H4 timeframe, CAD/JPY has repeatedly tested the 200 EMA but struggled to stay above it for long, indicating a strong bearish trend. Even the latest price correction failed to break above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Afterward, the price formed a bearish rising wedge pattern, followed by a breakout. The MACD indicator also signaled a bearish crossover, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside. Looking ahead, CAD/JPY could drop toward the first target at 101.505 and, if selling pressure persists, potentially reach the second target at 100.159. These levels align with previous price movements and key historical support zones. However, this bearish outlook remains valid only if the price stays below the key stop-loss level at 105.133. Market Sentiments Japan’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) is keeping its short-term interest rate steady at 0.5% while monitoring domestic wage growth and rising food prices. If inflation continues to rise, the BOJ may increase rates, potentially to 0.75% or higher, which could strengthen the yen and potentially make the CADJPY going lower. Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on CAD/JPY"
Short
by financialfreedomgoals101
7