Gold Fluctuates in Support Range; Accumulation Signals Rise⏰ Timeframe: 30m
📅 Update: 24/11/2025
🔍 Market Context
After a corrective decline from the 4,104 USD area, gold is moving within a range-bound structure with strong support at the 4,003–4,023 USD area.
The market is in a short-term re-accumulation phase, as consecutive CHoCH movements appear around the bottom area — reflecting the buying side's effort to absorb liquidity.
The selling side temporarily controls, but balancing signals are becoming clearer as the price continuously rejects breaking deeply below the Demand Zone.
📊 Technical Structure
Resistance Zone (4,090–4,104 USD): main supply area, confluence with Fibo 1.0, where profit-taking reactions are likely if the price rebounds.
Support Zone (4,023 USD): intermediate support, playing a key role in the current sideways structure.
Demand Zone (4,003 USD): potential demand area, confluence with previous liquidity bottom – main BUY Zone area.
Structure Bias: still inclined towards accumulation – recovery, as long as the price maintains above 4,003 USD.
🎯 Market Outlook
1️⃣ Priority Scenario (Buy setup):
• The price may continue to retest the Demand Zone (4,003–4,023 USD).
• When a clear reaction signal appears, expect a recovery to the Fibo 0.618 → 1.0 area, corresponding to 4,075–4,104 USD.
2️⃣ Secondary Scenario (Breakdown):
• If the price breaks below 4,003 USD, the recovery structure will be invalidated, bringing gold back to the lower liquidity area around 3,985 USD.
💎 Key Zones
BUY Zone: 4,003 – 4,023 USD
SELL Zone: 4,090 – 4,104 USD
🧠 Analyst’s View
Gold is currently in a liquidity re-accumulation phase, as both sides are testing the lower boundary of the main support area.
The buying side needs confirmation with a break above 4,075 USD, while the selling side still holds the advantage if the price cannot maintain above the balance area.
In the current context, price behavior leans towards the “Sweep – Retest – Expansion” model, with the potential for forming a short-term technical recovery wave.
🛡️ Risk Note
The market is in a low volatility area – avoid emotional actions without clear structural confirmation.
Capital
XAU/USD: Gold in Downtrend, Waiting for Demand Surge⏰ Timeframe: 30m
📅 Update: 11/20/2025
🔍 Market Context
After the technical rebound at the beginning of the week, gold returns to adjust within the descending channel pattern, indicating that short-term upward momentum is temporarily weakening.
The current structure reflects a rebalancing state after the price was rejected at the 4,127 USD supply zone – coinciding with the 30-minute frame Supply Zone.
However, the Demand Zone below still plays an important role in maintaining the medium-term upward structure.
📊 Technical Structure
Supply Zone (4,127 USD): main resistance area, confluence with the nearest peak – where the price was strongly rejected during the Asian session.
OB Bearish (4,106 USD): short-term supply area, highly likely to be retested after completing the adjustment phase.
Demand Zone (4,013 USD): main support area in the descending channel, also the confluence point between the channel boundary and the lower liquidity zone.
Liquidity Sweep: signal indicating that lower liquidity has been absorbed, opening up the possibility of forming a higher low.
🎯 Market Outlook
High probability scenario:
1️⃣ Price continues to fluctuate within the descending channel, retesting the 4,013 USD Demand Zone.
2️⃣ If a clear price reaction occurs, the market is likely to break the channel, opening up a technical rebound to OB Bearish 4,106 USD or Supply Zone 4,127 USD.
3️⃣ Losing the 4,013 USD area will temporarily invalidate the rebound structure, bringing the price back to a lower balance area around 3,990 USD.
🧠 Analyst’s View
Gold is in a corrective pullback phase – where the market needs to regenerate liquidity before forming a new expansion wave.
A reasonable scenario is sweep – retest – expansion: sweep lower liquidity, retest the supply area, then determine the main trend for the end of the week.
Buyers still have a slight advantage as long as the Demand Zone is maintained.
🛡️ Risk Note
This is a phase of market liquidity accumulation, fluctuations may be erratic.
XAU/USD – Rebalancing Structure, Support Zone Holding Steady⏰ Timeframe: 30m
📅 Update: 17/11/2025
🔍 Market Context
After the extended decline late last week, gold is gradually stabilizing around the 4,050–4,080 USD zone, showing a positive reaction at the structural support zone.
The recent Break of Structure (BOS) sequence indicates that the selling momentum is gradually weakening, while the newly formed Order Block is acting as a temporary balance for the market.
The current structure slightly leans towards a technical recovery, as buying flows are returning around the main support zone.
📊 Technical Structure
Support Zone (4,049–4,080 USD): a critical support zone, confluencing with the previous liquidity bottom.
Order Block (4,096–4,115 USD): a short-term supply-demand area, potentially a retest point before the price expands higher.
Resistance Zone (4,145 USD): the first intermediate level to overcome to confirm upward momentum.
Target Zone (4,210 USD): the upper liquidity zone, corresponding to the potential expansion mark of the recovery wave.
🎯 Market Outlook
Priority scenario for the day:
1️⃣ Gold may retest the Order Block zone 4,096–4,115 USD before forming the first push up to 4,145 USD.
2️⃣ If buying pressure is maintained and this resistance zone is broken, the expansion momentum may head towards 4,210 USD, corresponding to a higher liquidity zone.
3️⃣ Losing the 4,049 USD mark will invalidate the recovery structure and bring the market back to a lower balance zone.
🧠 Analyst’s View
The market is currently in a reaccumulation phase after a strong correction.
Buyers still maintain a technical advantage as long as the price remains above the 4,049 USD support zone.
Observing price behavior around the Order Block and the 4,145 USD zone will be key signals to confirm the strength of this recovery wave.
🛡️ Risk Note
The current phase is a “pullback phase” within the larger structure.
Traders should wait for clear price behavior confirmation at technical zones rather than predicting movements in advance.
Gold Technical Retracement Before Continuing Main Uptrend⏰ Timeframe: 30m
📅 Update: 11/14/2025
🔍 Market Context
After establishing a short-term peak around 4,239 USD, gold is undergoing a technical retracement to rebalance its structure.
The most recent decline formed a Break of Structure (BOS), but the Support Zone around 4,145–4,174 USD continues to serve as a foundation for the medium-term uptrend.
The current price structure indicates the market is re-accumulating momentum before expanding again.
📊 Technical Structure
Order Block (4,239 USD): a short-term resistance zone where the price may react slightly before continuing upward.
Support Zone (4,145–4,174 USD): a confluence zone with Fibo 0.236–0.382, playing a balancing role in the current cycle.
Liquidity Targets:
• 4,261 USD – intermediate liquidity zone.
• 4,293 USD – main expansion target if the uptrend is maintained.
🎯 Market Outlook
High probability scenario:
1️⃣ The price may retrace to the Support Zone or form a higher low around 4,174 USD, then recover to the OB zone at 4,239 USD.
2️⃣ If the uptrend structure breaks, the market may test deeper towards 4,145 USD before bouncing back.
As long as the price holds above this support zone, the primary trend remains bullish continuation.
🧠 Analyst’s View
This is a phase of market re-accumulation after a rapid increase.
Maintaining a higher low structure will be a confirmation signal for the next expansion phase towards 4,261–4,293 USD.
Buyers are still controlling the cash flow, while sellers mainly participate in the short-term resistance zone.
🛡️ Risk Note
The market is in a slight correction phase – avoid impulsive actions when the price has not completed the accumulation zone.
Gold Maintains Bullish Structure, Prepares for New Expansion Wav⏰ Timeframe: 30m
📅 Update: 11/13/2025
🔍 Market Context
After a short correction at the start of the week, gold has clearly formed a Break of Structure (BOS) on the 30-minute chart, indicating that bullish momentum has returned.
This morning's Asian session witnessed a strong recovery from the Support Zone, confirming that buying pressure remains dominant in the current structure.
The market is approaching the “expansion phase” – where prices typically expand to seek liquidity above.
📊 Technical Structure
Order Block 1 (4,208 USD): a short-term support area, likely to serve as a retest point after the expansion move.
Order Block 2 (4,184 USD): confluence of Fibonacci 0.5–0.618, a deep equilibrium zone within the bullish structure.
Support Zone: the main foundation of the medium-term uptrend, still being preserved.
Extension Levels:
• 4,249 USD → first expansion target.
• 4,267 USD → intermediate liquidity zone.
• 4,292 USD → maximum expansion target within the current cycle.
🎯 Market Outlook
Today's scenario leans towards a continuation bullish direction:
1️⃣ Price may technically correct to the OB 4,208 or 4,184 USD area.
2️⃣ Upon a bullish reaction, the market is likely to expand to 4,267 – 4,292 USD, where short-term selling liquidity is concentrated.
3️⃣ Losing the 4,184 USD level will temporarily shift the structure to rebalancing (sideways).
🧠 Analyst’s View
Gold is in the “expansion reaccumulation” phase, meaning after attracting liquidity below, prices begin to expand following the main trend.
Continuous BOS signals indicate that buyers are reasserting control.
As long as prices remain above the 4,184 USD area, the intraday bias remains predominantly bullish.
🛡️ Risk Note
The market is expanding rapidly, so pullback reactions to the OB area may be highly volatile.
Let your trade ideas run and let's observe together.
Deep Dive into Internet Capital Markets (ICM) - New Narrative Revolution or Speculation?
Internet Capital Markets (ICM) is an emerging concept in crypto, allowing developers and startups to raise capital directly from communities via blockchain and social platforms like X (formerly Twitter). ICM tokenizes ideas, apps, and projects, bypassing traditional intermediaries such as venture capitalists.
Key Concepts & Mechanisms of ICM
ICM is founded on decentralization and social dynamics:
Tokenization & Democratized Capital:
Any user can launch a token representing their idea using platforms like Believe.app, simply by posting on social media with specific tags (e.g., "$TICKER + project name"). This dramatically simplifies fundraising, reducing barriers and costs.
Bonding Curve Pricing:
Initial liquidity and token pricing are set automatically through a bonding curve mechanism, increasing token prices as demand grows.
Trading on DEX:
Tokens typically move to decentralized exchanges (e.g., Meteora) once achieving market caps around $100,000, boosting liquidity and investor accessibility.
By May 2025, over 9,000 tokens have launched, total market capitalization surpassed $350M, with trading volumes reaching $411.6M.
Market Leaders & Success Stories
Believe app:
Dominant ICM platform, with over 3,192 tokens launched and 107,078 traders.
$LAUNCHCOIN:
Native token of Believe app, achieving $250M market cap and 18% growth in 24 hours.
Other notable projects:
$DUPE: Aggregator for product analogues ($63M market cap)
$NOODLE: Crypto analogue of popular game agar.io ($3.1M market cap)
$GOONC, $BUDDY: Highly volatile, speculative tokens popular among traders.
Driving Factors Behind ICM’s Popularity
ICM’s rapid growth is fueled by:
Investment Democratization:
Eliminating geographical and financial barriers.
Speculative Potential:
Opportunities for substantial profits (up to 50,000% ROI in 24 hours).
Social Mechanics & Simplicity:
Viral growth via platforms like X (Twitter).
Solana's Technological Edge:
Low transaction fees ($0.00025) and high transaction speeds (up to 65,000 TPS).
ICM Prospects: Optimism vs Risks
Optimists foresee a revolutionary expansion of capital access, driving Web3 and dApp innovations. Pessimists, however, highlight risks:
Extreme Volatility:
Tokens like $NOODLE dropped 61% in 24 hours.
Regulatory Uncertainty:
Lack of clear regulations, especially in the US, poses significant startup risks.
Speculative Nature:
Critics label ICM as "meme coins under a new name," noting limited intrinsic value in many projects.
Long-term success hinges on sustainable projects emerging and clarity on regulatory frameworks.
Impact on Real World Assets (RWA)
ICM holds potential for reshaping tokenized real-world assets (e.g., real estate, bonds, art):
Positive Impacts:
Lower entry barriers, increased liquidity, and new tokenization models for intellectual property or future revenues.
Current Limitations:
Technological and regulatory constraints currently limit integration of complex RWAs with ICM.
Future Potential:
Over the next 3-5 years, integration could strengthen significantly, contingent upon regulatory clarity.
How to Profit from the ICM Trend?
Key earning strategies include:
Token Creation & Sales:
Launching tokens on platforms like Believe.app, earning up to 50% in trading fees.
Early-stage Investing:
Buying tokens pre-DEX launch, offering high-risk/high-reward potential.
Short-term Trading:
Exploiting token volatility on DEXs for rapid profits.
Participating in Airdrops:
Obtaining free tokens from emerging projects.
Infrastructure Development:
Building analytical tools and integrated wallets, attracting venture funding or tokenization.
Diversification, monitoring social engagement, and avoiding questionable projects are essential risk mitigation strategies.
Future Challenges & Opportunities
ICM faces notable challenges:
Regulation:
Uncertainty and potential legal sanctions remain significant risks.
Market Volatility:
Requires sophisticated analysis and cautious strategies.
Integration with AI:
Leveraging artificial intelligence for trading optimization and market analytics can offer substantial competitive advantages.
Navigating the landscape requires balancing innovation and regulatory compliance for sustainable growth.
Conclusion
Internet Capital Markets represents a revolutionary approach to capital formation, transforming traditional fundraising. Despite impressive growth and potential, careful navigation is needed due to high volatility and regulatory uncertainties. Platforms like Believe.app demonstrate model viability, yet long-term success will depend on achieving a balance between meaningful project value and clear regulatory frameworks.
ICM uniquely blends innovation and speculation. Time will tell whether it becomes foundational within the financial ecosystem or simply another speculative crypto bubble.
Best regards EXCAVO
Gold and Silver Out of Sync-Extreme Sentiment and Runaway Movesgold and silver futures chart analysis and why gold may no longer predictably be used to time the silver moves at this period in time; though there are several ways for silver to reach 37-43 and ultimately 50, as gold is likely set to overshoot 3000.
Salesforce (CRM): Decision Point ApproachingNYSE:CRM has risen higher than anticipated, but we are still holding on to our bearish scenario. Initially, we expected another leg down following the wick that we identified as wave ((a)), but the stock surprised us by pushing to a higher high, surpassing the levels of wave 1 and wave B at $348.86.
This move invalidated our first bearish scenario, activating our secondary outlook of a flat correction where wave ((b)) exceeds wave 1, which aligns with the current structure.
From here, our outlook is straightforward: if our bearish scenario holds, NYSE:CRM should drop below the wave ((a)) level, which is yet to be determined. However, if the stock rises above $360 and sustains trading at that level, the bearish outlook will be invalidated, requiring a complete re-charting of $CRM.
A decision point is approaching, and we will monitor the stock closely for further developments.
Game Over for the 100+ Year Economic Super-CycleDJIA. Just look at it, is it not funny how correlated everything looks on a 100+ year chart?
We are the the top. Can we this time get through the historically impossible resistance?
Knowing JPow, when market drops 10-15% he will spin up the BRRRRRRR into panic overdrive and we'll blast right through the final resistance line into pure hyper-inflationary environment where %age growth does not matter anymore, up_only.
Given that USA debt will shortly be $30 Trillion, if .gov bond rates would be at ~5% then that would be $1.5 trillion in interest payments on debt alone, or about 40% of the $3.71T tax revenue in 2020. Everyone knows that anyone who pays 40% of income just on interest, is bankrupt beyond all hope.
This is why USA will keep the interest rates low, there is no other way, regardless of what inflation does, and in order to so, the Fed gotta do BRRRRRRRRRRR, the markets will pump in nominal terms while inflation eats the actual profits. Deflation is the enemy of the state, because with deflation, large debts become non-serviceable, and as you know (if you been paying attention) that all money is debt that is loaned into existence. If the human civilization was to pay back all of its debts, there would be no money left, and we would still owe the interest. We are forced to perpetually borrow ever more to pay existing debts and interest. Inflation is designed into the current system. Hyperinflation is the inevitable end game. All (fiat) money is debt-- Sounds like double-speak, but such is life in the current financial system.
After a little dip to scare JPow to print MOAR, we should eventually break the top ultimate resistance line on DJIA, and move into a new paradigm of perpetual up & only up, which will be exponential and approach the current economic systems end-game at light speed.
--------------------
For over 100 years, the most capitalistic things of them all: the mediums of exchange- money and the value of money (the interest charged on $$$$), has been "carefully" centrally managed, controlled by The Powers That Be (and competition has been forbidden).
We are entering a new era, where medium of exchange systems compete with each other in capitalistic fashion, where people are free to choose in what medium they want to transact in, maximizing their own benefit. This does not sit well with the current TPTB, because they have seemingly effortlessly been able to reap incredibly disproportionate rewards by controlling the medium of exchange in communist fashion (centrally controlled by decree). TPTB do not even care about the money itself, since TPTB can create unlimited amounts, enough to buy the whole world, at any price and any time; they care only for control. Losing control creates panic, losing comfort creates panic, losing relevance creates panic. The Powers That Be are in full panic mode to maintain the status quo and their communistic cartel monopoly. With the current TPTB financial system collapsing, watch TPTB try to appear as the grand saviors with new "better" economic system, veiled in virtue and "good" intentions, but the systems will be even more communistic and centrally controlled, the intention has always been to maximize control.
Cryptocurrencies will help to change the world by offering alternative medium of exchanges that TPTB will not be able to easily control, but Bitcoin will not be part of it. Bitcoin can not be part of the revolution in its current state of measly 7 transactions per second, $50 txn fees during high network congestion and high energy cost. Somewhere, someone will figure out a solution to an energy efficient, decentralized, scalable, anonymous, non-inflationary, instantaneous medium of exchange for the entire planet, the greatest competitor the FIAT currencies will ever see. With the greatest competitor appearing, people will start abandoning the USD and Fiat currencies. While Fiat will not be abandoned entirely, it will finally have competition, and people will have a choice to opt out of debt slavery that's been forced upon them for 100+ years of central banking & inflation. We, the people, will have a choice we have never had.
Inflation of the money supply is a hidden tax on responsible savers where capital creation is forbidden in practice (but allowed in name) for common folk, because capital is eroded through inflation, forcing people to go to the big banks (instead of lending/borrowing person to person at their own interest rates (value of money)) in order to beg the banks for a loan, keeping the big banks and the parasitical TPTB forever relevant. The new era of competition in mediums of exchange will open the door for democracy and capitalism in the ultimate sense, where behind the scenes dictators who install puppets every 4 years will no longer be able to finance wars and their covert schemes through centrally controlled money printing at the expense of the human civilization. Competing, instantaneous, world-wide, independent mediums of exchange will be the Greatest Liberation in the History of Human Civilization.
Enjoy the Dow Jones Industrial Average blow out of the final resistance zone after a small reversal.
Enjoy the Dow Jones Industrial Average eventually become increasingly meaningless as it fails its purpose to serve as a useful indicator in a hyper-inflationary world.
Enjoy the future where you no longer are a debt slave.
Enjoy the Freedom that is coming soon.
We are close to the end game.
Special to Quantum ComputingIt's often said the people who made money during the Gold Rush were pick makers and Lewis Jeans Co. In the digital world, leaders in computing power are at the forefront of the biotech, robotics and AI revolution that we have embarked on. Grab your seat... "mutability" is a powerful skill to have. Understanding the environment and adapting to the ever changing landscape has never been more important. Let's talk about those SPACs Never been a fan until just last week more as a co-research project I'm working on for security.
Let's focus on one that was announced last Feb 2022 and is heading to a Special Shareholder Vote tomorrow. "D-Wave Systems, a provider of quantum computing systems, software, and services, said Tuesday that it has agreed to merge with special purpose acquisition company DPCM Capital (XPOA) to become a publicly-traded entity."
There is a special shareholder meeting for holders of this SPAC to readjust to the changing times. That event will happen tomorrow August 2nd 2022. If you missed it, check with IR and SEC public filings at edgar.sec.gov As a US regulated company, it should all be there. D-Wave in Canada is currently private and apparently firing on all cylinders from informal observations.
Canada filings would be done within the appropriate Authority & Regulator for that Jurisdiction. Check with a financial advisor. I'm just an observer on a keyboard that likes to look at charts, keep my nose clean and study the markets to find possible gems in the muck of "stuff".
D-Wave Systems is a great candidate for a SPAC reverse-IPO thing. Let's hope the Regulators on both sides of the border work together to make sure all eyes are on this one.
Note: This was the last update with summary from Feb 2022:
Update: D-Wave to Go Public via Merger with SPAC DPCM Capital; DPCM Shares Rise
Feb 8, 202208:47
(Updates with stock move in the headline and last paragraph.)
D-Wave Systems, a provider of quantum computing systems, software, and services, said Tuesday that it has agreed to merge with special purpose acquisition company DPCM Capital (XPOA) to become a publicly-traded entity.
Upon closing of the deal, shares of D-Wave Quantum Inc., a newly formed parent company of D-Wave and DPCM Capital, will start trading on the NYSE under the symbol QBTS.
The transaction values D-Wave at an equity value of roughly $1.2 billion. D-Wave plans to use proceeds of $340 million to further accelerate its delivery of in-production quantum applications for blue-chip customers and to build on over 200 US patents that it has been granted.
After the closing of the deal, the combined entity will continue to operate from D-Wave's R&D and head office location in British Columbia, Canada.
The Analysis:
TA As of August 1st 2022. Tradingview TA www.tradingview.com (note: XPOA symbol to change to QBTS apparently?)
Summary: SELL 14,7,5 (watch last number increase as Yes vote gets confirmed, the current hypothesis)
Oscillators BUY 1,6,4 (mostly neutral at 6 but 4 should be increasing)
Moving Averages STRONG SELL 13,1,1 (MA-only based short sellers/algos/traders want to sell. This could be a formidable short squeeze potential in vote is large, or shorts could be predicting this is garbage).
Fundamentals
Everything depends on the vote tomorrow. Based on all information findable in Public (via SEC Edgars and other official sources). This is a Watch or Casino Bet pending vote. Tomorrow will confirm a Bullish Run or an abysmal US SPAC failure. Dog Food Fund Candidate "pre-IPO" "smelly SPAC" XPOA -> NYSE QBTS Quantum Computing "junior" that is a leader in its North American space. Place your bet, trade or investment .
Diem Raise $200BMeta (formerly Facebook) threw in the towel on its grand plans to create a digital currency last year. Earlier in 2022, though, it sold the remaining assets to Silvergate Capital for $182 billion
The team behind the original Diem project announced they were working on a new blockchain called Aptos in late February. On March 15, they outlined massive funding round from crypto VCs.
The startup has closed a $200 billion strategic investment led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with participation from Tiger Global, Multicoin Capital, Three Arrows Capital, FTX Ventures, Coinbase Ventures, among others.
GREAT GBP/USD TRADEIf you saw my post about the dollar index I mentioned that I was looking for GU buys… Perfect 1:3 risk reward ratio risking 2% so I made 6%… My gold trade was a loser so currently up 4% for the day… If you could make 2% a day and compound your money by reinvesting 100% of your earnings, your on your way to being a millionaire. Happy trading #diamondbrotherscapital
GOLD analysisGold continues to move higher on the larger timeframe, its always best to follow the trend. Gold is currently moving lower approaching this area of demand. If you look at the dollar index, you can see that it may continue to get weaker. If that is the case than this will send XAU/USD to the upside. Nothing is certain so losses can occur but as long as your risk reward is good, you will be profitable in the long run. Happy trading! #diamondbrotherscapital
XRP/USD FOR MY CRYPTO TRADERSXRP/USD seems to be in a uptrend on the larger time frames and is approaching a nice supply area... I am in a long trade to the upside with a nice 1:3 risk reward ratio... Ultimately this is what its all about, it doesn't matter how much pips you make, what matters is your RRR. The sooner you understand that, the sooner you will be in profit. Happy trading!! #diamondbrotherscapital
GBP/NZD possible move to the upsideGPB/NZD is in an uptrend on the longer timeframe, let price pull back for a cheaper value price, and then go down to lower timeframes and look for an entry to the upside... I will be sharing my exact entry, stop loss, and tp with my subscribers, cheers to a great trading week #DIAMONDBROTHERSCAPITAL
Southern Company Outlook for 2022Pour 2022
In my previous idea I'd said I was halting accumulation to see how SO was going to perform the rest of December. The main driver behind this decision was I didn't want to purchase shares at price levels SO hasn't been able to hold consistently. Basically: Anything above $63 I considered "wait and see". Building on my earlier idea, in 2022 I think this will change. My major expectation is for investors to search for safer assets: Bond-like equities.
My reasons for believing this are two fold:
Firstly, the investors of newer money are (I think) approaching the trough of the time vs. knowledge curve. Simply put: new money is learning enough about markets to know it doesn't know much. This will increase flows to safer sectors; namely: Utilities. Utilities, and the stable source of capital expenditure and profit they represent, will attract many investors unfamiliar with a stock market absent of Meme stocks and volatility.
Secondly, economic conditions are tightening. Simply put, inflation is hot and has completely removed any momentum the already weak "recovery" had. 2022 will, in my view, have a major theme of a return to pre-COVID economics. Namely: disinflation, lower job openings, and slowing world trade. Utilities, historically, do very well under these conditions.
Beyond 2022
As stated above, demographics and economic conditions will return to pre-pandemic structures. One of these conditions is a lowering birth rate. Seeing that SO supplies power to people, having less of them isn't a bullish indicator. However, COVID did introduce a very bullish condition for SO's area: migration. The flows of new people from liberal states into the southeast (mostly GA) will, in my view, continue clear through this decade.
Financial conditions will also tighten significantly, regardless of FED actions. This has been the case for almost 40 years with Reserve actions having effects only at the margins. This is predominantly due to the fact that large monetary spending has placed significant bulwarks against American citizen's progression. Money can be printed but until it's cheap enough for the already over-indebted populous to borrow, debt will continue to destroy future purchasing power. The theme for the decade will be disinflation as the economy grinds to a near-halt under the weight of our own debt (this is a long process). Utilities and mega-caps will be the only place where capital can survive relatively un-molested. Flows into these assets (and the indexes that hold them) will grow parabolically as will their valuations.
Price Targets
I'd expect to see >$87 per share by or before the end of 2022.
As for right now, the stock is overbought on rather silly news (an upgrade from hold to buy). I don't expect the present price to stand over the next few months and would expect a trend down to the mid-sixties.
My new buy target, however, I've raised to $65. Anything below $60 I'd consider a very strong buy.






















