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Bitcoin - First time in 4 months that I'm turning bullish! Though I'm not 100% bullish yet, I can honestly say that this is the first time in 4 long months that the charts are showing me some positive signs of turning bullish. Here's what I see: #1 - A break above the top of our long 4 month down-trending BLUE channel. This is the first time BTC has made this break. Barely, but the green shoots of BTC spring are showing. #2 - Our long-trending (+1yr) BLACK support has NOT been broken. This has held us up since MARCH 2017. #3 - We broke back above our 300 day moving average. This can now act as strong support for us. I think that this is the first time since December I have able to list at least 3 strongly positive signs that may be showing us Bitcoin may be starting to turn. Keep in mind, longer term trends needs a longer turning radius. I don't believe we will just turn on a dime. But if we can keep from re-entering this bearish channel. it is definitely a positive sign for good old BTC. The one thing we need to keep a close watch on this weekend is a re-entry back into the bearish channel. We still have not really had good confirmation on the daily that we are completely out of our bear channel. I believe if we are to completely clear this bear channel, BTC must break back above that 54 resistance on the RSI. And, we need a close above 7.9k and the close of Sunday's candle to stay above 7.8k for this confirmation. My sentiment remains neutral to cautiously optimistic at this point. Starting to turn bullish. Peace and happy trades my crypto friends.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
7
Bitcoin 4-6 day target - $8885 - Short Well, Bitcoin has been actually making me look good the last several weeks. Projected pattern has been followed EXACTLY as expected thus far. You will find the related link of my previous post below but let me summarize it quickly for you: - Inverse H&S was spotted by the masses on tradingview, but I remained skeptical that these bulls would have the strength to carry through as projected. Reason: Low volume on the right shoulder. - As expected though, the bulls did carry us up to the first neckline where it stalled out for a couple of days. - After that, it was able to push through, it stalled again for another two days at the top of my BLUE downtrend channel. - Finally, it broke through for one day, touched the second neckline in RED, and tapped out. - BTC then came back into the longer 2.5 month descending BLUE channel as predicted. - The bears broke back under the intersection of the first neckline with the .382 fib retracement leven and rested on the bottom of a longtime ascending channel I have drawn out in BLACK. - This too, has not been enough to hold these bears back, and so here we are today. - We are now back under major support which now repurposes as bullish overhead resistance. Given how weak these bulls have looked the past several days, I expect the bears to win this battle and take us all the way back down to a trisection in my chart. This is the area where the 200 day moving average intersects with the top of another PINK ascending channel AND our .236 fib retracement level. I expect that once we reach our target area, there will be another big bull bounce. I'll have to look at the volume again, but I anticipate that price, time, and pattern will all align. This may finally give the bulls the opportunity they are looking for to break through all of this tremendous overhead resistance! Again, volume must confirm once the target is reached and I will reanalyze again at this point. If the bulls don't find strength in the target area, it is possible we'll retest our low of $6000 or even head back down to touch the bottom of my blue channel at $2000-$4000! Although this latter scenario remains least likely, it still is within the realm of possibility according to my charts and I would be remiss not to at least make mention of it. Happy trading friends!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
5
Hey BTC! I found volume! He's over here! Well, that escalated quickly! And, surprise-surprise, we have found our long lost brother, volume! Not long after I hit the "POST" button on my last idea this morning, (), we started heading quickly to the target range I had predicted. We are still not there yet so hang tight. Here's what I see as possible scenarios: - One, a sideways day or two before hitting our target this weekend sometime. - Two, it's possible we have another big RED candle tomorrow as well. - Three, I could be wrong and today was all the capitulation you're going to get in which case: -- We won't reach our target area -- BTC won't get a second chance to kiss his mother (200 day MA) goodbye. - Four, we take one of the first three choices, bounce, head north and then get stopped a second time by the top of my BLUE channel before heading lower again. - Five (least likely), we simply blow right through the 200 day moving avg. and continue south with little to no hesitation. This is very unlikely with the capitulation volume we observed today, however, BTC has surprised me numerous times this past year or two and thus, I would be remiss not to make mention of this option. I'll leave it up to you all to place your bets on which of these scenarios plays out. For now, I am still hoping to hit our target. Still too early to tell if 4 will be a valid option. If we head north from here and hit the top of my channel again, the probability increases that we hit our heads and continue south. I think we need the springboard of the 200MA to give these bulls enough momentum to push through resistance, form the right shoulder correctly, break the last RED neckline, and continue north. IF (BIG IF) the bulls can actually do that. BOTTOM LINE: We have our volume! But will we get our trampoline bounce from the 200MA as well? We kinda need that right now. ONE MORE NOTE: Just a theory, but I had noted in the past that BTC likes 60 day cycles. First 45 UP. Last 15 DOWN (ish). Because, of the futures trading announcement pumping the market abnormally last Nov-Dec, the last cycle got all jacked up. It was all down and ended up extended by 25 days. That shortened this 60 day cycle by 25 days, making it 35 days in length. We have been in and UPTREND for 28 days of this cycle. If my timing is correct, the last 7 days should indicate a downward trend. So far, so good. 3 more days to go! That puts us right at the weekend. Perfect! This aligns magnificently with my charts and is nothing but good news for the bulls should we hit our target. Happy trading friends!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
4
Elliott wave Analysis: 10 Year US Notes Update10 year US notes can be trading at the end of a higher degree wave III. Specifically we see price unfolding an overlapping price movement within sub-wave 5 of three, that looks more and more like a EW ending diagonal. The speciality of this pattern is that it can cause a sharp a strong turn into the opposite direction, in our case into corrective wave IV, which could see limited upside near the 121.09 level, at the starting point of the pattern. Possible support zone is seen at 119'20, where red waves 1 and 5 would become equal. That said, divergence on the RSI also suggest a potential turning point. An ending diagonal is a special type of pattern that occurs at times when the preceding move has gone too far too fast, as Elliott put it. A very small percentage of ending diagonals appear in the C wave position of A-B- C formations. In double or triple threes, they appear only as the final “C” wave. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All our work is for educational purposes only.
CBOT:ZN1!
by ew-forecast
2
Bitcoin headed to $12,600 by next gov't shutdown date ..and then Well, in a rare instance of predictability, Bitcoin has plotted the expected course precisely (see related post). I am expecting us to still cross our 200MA (current resistance) on the 4hr and hit our heads on that ever looming $12,600 QUAD resistance overhead. Whether we make it over that or not is still TBD. At the very least, traders would be advised to take some profit here. We'll likely drop back down to the $10,000 area before the bulls can muster enough strength to take another stab at it. One more item worth mentioning. The time in which we hit our overhead quad resistance coincides nearly exactly with the next expected U.S. gov't shutdown deadline date. File this one under "Things that make you go Hmmmmm". Happy Trading Friends!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
2
PICKING UP STEEM! $17+ TARGET SOON! $35 THIS YEAR! A quick look at STEEM shows me we are in a longer extended triangle correction with A-B-C-D-E Elliot touch points. Now, sometimes the (D) touchpoint also becomes the breakout. I am unsure of the percentage here and am hoping a comment warrior can help me out but for sake of the illustration, I'd say that maybe 60-70% of the time we will travel down to point (E), hit our touchpoint and then break up. That leaves us with 30% of the time that we don't. Point being, we are close to a breakout of our triangle here. Now, because of the extended nature of this particular correction (RED TRIANGLE), I have cloned our purple fractal and multiplied it by two (2), an estimated length of the triangle. I have built the fractals on top of each other from an assumed touch point of (E) to reach our first shorter term target of $17, a 400%+ profit margin from our current price. Longer term I see STEEM taking off like a rocket. I do believe that it is well within reason that STEEM reaches $35 by year end (and I think this $35 target would only be the end of wave #3 - meaning we could go higher). This would constitute a nearly %800+ profit. If you want to place your bets on an alt coin that will be around for a while AS WELL AS one that will net huge gains, I do believe STEEM is the coin to be in. Veering away from technical analysis here, DTUBE (a decentralized video platform built on the STEEM technology) has recently picked up many major YouTuber's and this transition is about to avalanche with the Google Ad issues that we have been seeing in news stories recently. This will only serve to propel STEEM into newer territory and token highs. Brace yourselves, STEEM IS PICKING UP. The STEEM propelled rocket will be launching soon. Happy trading friends.
SLong
by stewdamus
FUN FOR EVERYONE WITH FUNFAIR! .60-.80 TARGETS FOR 1200%+ PROFIT Here's my analysis on this little sleeper: Looking at the charts I see a beautiful cup and handle has formed and is nearing completion. The handle, which is also a descending triangle with a near perfect ABCDE correction touch, is almost near the final bottom touch (E). This is also the correction phase 2 of Elliot's 1-2-3-4-5 waves. Combining Fib retracement with Elliot's waves and time/price/pattern brings us to the top of wave #3 near July. For those of you who hate to do the BTC to USD conversion in your heads as I do, this price will be at about sixty (60) cents. At this point, we should see another correction, maybe down to forty (40) cents or so, and then a final pop before the year end up to eighty (80) cents. I, personally, will be taking 50%+ off the top at around sixty (60) cents. This is a higher risk trade friends, but I like what the charts are telling me here. Good luck and happy trading!
FLong
by stewdamus
1
I think we've hit our low.Here's what ole' BTC is currently looking like: We've broken down out of our descending wedge and down out of our descending channel, capitulated, and have now move back up into both. On the daily, we are attempting to swim above our 200MA. It appears we are wanting to form an inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern on the 4 hour. Volume has confirmed the left shoulder and head thus far. Right shoulder remains to be formed before this pattern can be confirmed. If it plays out as expected, that second to the bottom BLUE downtrend line would form a nice neckline. The upside target then would be EXACTLY the top of the BLUE channel. Time would put us right at the intersect of this downtrend channel as well as the top BLACK uptrend line. Price would put us right at .5 FIB level. All three intersect right at the end of our inverse head-and-shoulders exhaustion target. This would form MAJOR MAJOR quad resistance, likely ensuring another strong move down. Short term I am long. Once we reach the top of our BLUE descending channel, I will like sell some of my position (if not most) to see what the market decides. Should we move up and out of our long time downtrending BLUE channel, my long term target this year is 50-80k. Should we hit our heads and move down, I will probably buy back around 8-11k and HODL. We'll see how this one plays out. Best of luck traders!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
2
Careful. BTC still barely(pun) favors the bears. Target $8000. From what I see, we are still in an ABCDE correction (purple triangle). We could not close and confirm above the topmost black uptrend line last night on the daily. This is a significant development. We also have not broken out and above our purple triangle. This too is significant. Additionally, it looks like we may have one more corrective wave down (wave E). It should be noted however, that this final wave down does not alway have to occur. I am not certain of the percentage of the times that it does not complete, but I think it may be relatively high (around 30%). Comment warriors can you please kindly correct me if I am wrong. MACD still bearish on the daily. RSI still bearish on the daily. Volume still relatively light except when the sellers come in. All these remain indicators to me that we are still bearish. I know everyone wants to get a jump on calling the bull market again, but be careful with this. You must exercise caution here in your trading. We definitely are nearing a bottom, but there is not solid indication for me yet that we should become bullish. Take care traders!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
2
Litecoin to $230 before dropping to $130 and then back up. Here's what I see for little bro, Litecoin. We are currently in a descending triangle. Bulls are still weak. With light volume they could push us up past $219 resistance to $230 strong resistance, but unless there is some major bullish news, we will simple knock our heads on this ceiling and continue downward. If bulls continue to be weak, we'll eventually drop to either our strong black support or to the base of our purple triangle, also strong support. Once here, I expect that Litecoin will have undergone enough of a contraction as to entice our bulls to come back out to play. Base of the purple triangle goes no lower than $125. Should we drop below this then we are really in some trouble as we could go all the way down to $75-80. I don't see this happening. I am not even sure we'll hit the base of our purple triangle again? I simply want to call your attention to all possibilities. Right now the market is waiting. Long term trends are still bullish IMO. However, short term trends have yet to prove any reversal and still bearish as far as I can see. Good luck with your trades my friends. Be cautious and careful as always. Bullish confirmation is a close and open of (2) two new candles (daily) above our purple triangle.
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by stewdamus
STEEM breaking out? Target $10. Double up opportunity.STEEM looks to be breaking out of a downward descending triangle on wave (D) instead of (E) bounce. Confirmation is still needed on the daily and so admittedly this post is early but we are in a buy range regardless. A cloned fractal (purple line) is used to measure the target range. RSI has bounce at the 50. If you play this trade, ladder your buy-ins as mostly within the buy zone outlined. Place one or two above and one or two beneath, just in case. As always, never go all in. Never invest in only one marktet, crypto, or type. And always have 10-15% cash on hand. Target is $10 area. Good luck traders!
SLong
by stewdamus
The bleeding stops tonight! 60 day BTC cycle over. 18.4k Next WkOk. Let me explain what is going on in this noisy chart folks. I am sorry for all of the lines. The lines that I would like to explain are: 1) The two up-trending blue supports near our 50 day MA. These should stop us tonight. If we break through the first, we still have another. They are both very good support. Break 'em and we're going down to 11k. However, I don't think this will happen. 2) The purple lines in the bottom of the RSI between the black vertical. The reason I don't think we'll break our support tonight is because all throughout 2017 BTC has followed a pattern that I've noticed: 60 day cycles (on average). For the first 40-45 days of this cycle, BTC trends up. Massively. For the remainder of the cycle (the last 15-20 days) BTC trends down. This has happened repeatedly. I've measured these 60 day cycles with those purple lines that I have orange arrows pointing at. The black vertical lines mark the beginning and ending of this cycle. Tonight marks the end of another one of these 60 day cycles. My hunch is that by tomorrow morning the bulls will show up in full force again. 3) The vertical purple lines: These are fractals. I have measure the up-movement of the last trend from BTC's lowest point to highest. We then formed another clear downtrend channel. Perfect! A good sign that fractals will work in our favor to show us our next short term target. I clone my first fractal and set it at BTC's current low within that down channel (bottom-most of the 4 red bars). This shows me that our new near term target will be anywhere from $18,400-18,800. I suspect we hit this target sometime next week. Get your buy orders lined up. We are in the buy zone now. Happy trading all!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
33
Litecoin. Technically, it's a buy, but...Alright. So on a technical basis, we do have a couple of solid buy signals. -First of all, we broke our down channel. -Secondly, we entered back into my bull channel. So what's my problem, you asked. I don't know just yet? I'm still trying to put my finger on this one. If I had to put something into words here I'd say that we still don't have solid, hot red confirmation (a multiplicity of indicators) confirming bullishness again (at least for Bitcoin, which is who Litecoin has been following as of late). Volume is way down. RSI and MACD are right on the edge. Etc., etc. If you choose to buy here, caution is advised. Dip your toes in slowly (dollar cost average in, maybe 20% per buy) and have your stops tight. Mine are just below the ascending bottom GREEN trendline for now. I'm extremely cautious here and reluctant to buy until we have more signs corroborating this move up.
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by stewdamus
12