Chartanalysis
XAUUSD - MARKET CONTEXT I SEP/29/2025-After yesterday’s PCE session, gold continues to maintain its bullish structure and is currently trading around 3816.
-Defensive flows remain in place as the USD has yet to show a strong recovery.
-On the H1/H4 chart, gold is still in a clear uptrend, consistently forming Higher Lows.
🔎 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
📊PRICE STRUCTURE
Main trend: Bullish
Key support zones:
3795 – 3800 (Liquidity + Old High zone) → critical retest zone if price pulls back.
3780 – 3785 (PoC zone) → confluence with the rising trendline.
Resistance zone:
3828 – 3830 (Liquidity zone & short-term resistance).
If broken, the next target could be 3845 – 3850.
📊VOLUME PROFILE
Current POC: around 3780, acting as strong support.
VaH: 3803 – 3805 → if price holds above this area, the bullish trend remains dominant.
📊PRICE ACTION
After a strong rally, the market may consolidate sideways around 3810 – 3820 before breaking out.
If 3795 is broken, gold may retest 3780 before recovering.
🟢 SCENARIO 1 – BUY PULLBACK AT SUPPORT
Entry: 3795 – 3800 or 3780 – 3785 (Liquidity + Old High + POC zone).
SL: below 3770
TP1: 3825
TP2: 3845
TP3: 3855+
✅ Rationale:
Confluence of Old High + Liquidity + rising trendline.
Main structure still shows Higher Low – Higher High → prioritize buying dips at support.
Declining volume during pullbacks → high probability of rebound.
🟡 SCENARIO 2 – BUY BREAKOUT
Entry: When H1 candle closes above 3828 – 3830.
SL: below 3810.
TP1: 3845
TP2: 3860+
✅ Rationale:
This is short-term resistance.
If broken with strong volume, the market will confirm a new bullish structure.
A successful breakout could extend targets toward 3850 – 3860.
📌 STRATEGY SUMMARY
Prioritize BUY with the main trend at support (3795 – 3800 / 3780 – 3785).
Consider BUY BREAKOUT if H1 closes above 3830.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
USOIL H1 – Trading Plan I SEP/29/2025Crude Oil (USOIL) is currently consolidating between the POC zone (65.14) and the Support/Resistance area (64.70 – 64.80). Market structure shows both bullish and bearish possibilities depending on whether these key levels hold or break
Here are 4 possible scenarios with entry signals to watch:
📊 Scenario 1 – Rebound from Support/Resistance
Watch zone: 64.70 – 64.80 (Support/Resistance).
Price action: Bullish reversal candlestick (Pin bar, Bullish engulfing) with volume confirmation.
Trading signal:
👉 Buy around 64.70 – 64.80
🎯 TP1: 65.14 (POC zone)
🎯 TP2: 65.56 – 65.79 (Supply zone)
⛔ SL: below 64.40 (Demand zone).
📊 Scenario 2 – Breakout above Supply Zone
Watch zone: 65.56 – 65.79 (Supply zone).
Price action: H1 candle closes above 65.80 with strong volume.
Trading signal:
👉 Buy breakout above 65.80
🎯 TP1: 66.20
🎯 TP2: 66.80
⛔ SL: below 65.40.
📊 Scenario 3 – Breakdown of Support/Resistance
Watch zone: 64.70 – 64.80.
Price action: H1 candle closes below 64.70 with strong bearish momentum.
Trading signal:
👉 Sell on pullback to 64.70
🎯 TP1: 64.40 (Demand zone)
🎯 TP2: 63.80
⛔ SL: above 65.10.
📊 Scenario 4 – Breakdown of Demand Zone
Watch zone: 64.20 – 64.40 (Demand zone).
Price action: H1 candle closes below 64.20 with increasing volume.
Trading signal:
👉 Sell breakout below 64.20
🎯 TP1: 63.60
🎯 TP2: 63.00
⛔ SL: above 64.60.
👉 Summary:
Holding above 64.70 favors Buy setups.
Breaking below 64.70 favors Sell setups.
Key short-term battle zone: 65.56 – 65.79 Supply area.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
I'm still long biased @ $XAUUSD (but deleveraging)Technical View
A potential bullish cup & handle pattern is forming, often seen as a continuation signal.
Price has already broken out of a bearish channel, which suggests that buyers have taken control.
Triangle and wedge formations point to pressure building upward.
The broader macro channel remains intact, so the larger trend has not been broken.
Clear invalidation levels are visible near 3,730 and 3,612, which provides trade structure from a technical perspective.
Overall, the technical picture continues to lean bullish.
Macro View
US CPI remains sticky while jobless claims are softening, hinting at stagflation dynamics.
The Federal Reserve is under pressure to cut rates, with real interest rates already negative.
Historically, when real rates are negative, gold tends to outperform bonds as a store of value.
Global central banks remain net buyers of gold as they diversify away from Treasuries.
This combination is similar to the 1970s stagflation backdrop: falling rates with inflation uncertainty often encouraged capital flows into gold.
Opinion
Technicals suggest upward momentum. Macro factors also support a bullish bias. The main caveat is that positioning in gold is already heavy, which can lead to sharp short-term volatility. Directionally, however, the long bias aligns with both the charts and the macro backdrop.
Disclaimer
This post reflects only my personal market observations and opinions, shared for educational and informational purposes. It should not be considered financial advice, investment recommendation, or a call to action. Trading financial markets involves risk, and you should carefully assess your own situation and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. Past performance or historical patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional if needed.
Master Horizontal Lines on Trading Charts | Signal & Structure 2In this second episode of the Signal and Structure series, we dive deep into one of the most fundamental yet powerful tools in technical analysis - horizontal support and resistance lines. This practical tutorial demonstrates a systematic approach to identifying and marking key price levels across multiple timeframes.
What You'll Learn:
Color-Coded Line System for Multiple Timeframes:
Monthly (Black, thickness 4) - The strongest levels from monthly candle closes
Weekly (Maroon/Brown, thickness 3) - Key weekly support/resistance zones
2-Day (Red, thickness 2) - Intermediate term levels
12-Hour (Orange, thickness 1-2) - Short-term trading levels
3-Hour (Yellow, thickness 1) - Day trading reference points
Key Concepts Covered:
Why monthly candle closes often matter more than wicks (with live examples)
How previous resistance becomes new support - demonstrated on Bitcoin's chart
Identifying distribution and accumulation ranges using horizontal levels
The importance of avoiding chart clutter - when NOT to add more lines
Using transparent candles to see through to your levels and indicators
Practical Techniques:
Live demonstration on TradingView using Bitcoin/USD charts
How to identify the most significant levels from each timeframe
Creating "boxes" to visualize trading ranges and distribution zones
Brief introduction to Wyckoff theory concepts (spring patterns)
Tips for maintaining clarity when working with multiple overlapping levels
Chart Setup Tips:
Why exchange charts (KuCoin, Gate.io) provide better volume data than index charts
Continuing emphasis on logarithmic scale for crypto analysis
How to organize your workspace for multi-timeframe analysis
This 20-minute tutorial walks you through the exact process of building a professional-grade support and resistance framework on your charts. The presenter demonstrates each concept in real-time on TradingView, making it easy to follow along and implement these techniques immediately.
Perfect for traders who want to move beyond random line drawing and develop a systematic, color-coded approach to identifying key market levels. Whether you're scalping on the 3-hour or position trading on the monthly, this hierarchical system helps you see exactly where the important levels are at a glance.
Next episode preview: Diagonal trend lines, channels, and Fibonacci levels - including a unique approach to stacking channels that provides an edge in the markets.
BTCUSDT (H1) – Trading ScenariosScenario 1 – Rebound from Demand Zone
The demand area at 108,500 – 108,700 remains the strongest short-term support.
If bullish reversal patterns (Pin Bar, Bullish Engulfing) form here with confirming volume, a rebound is likely.
Trade Setup: Enter long around 108,600 – 108,700, targeting 109,800 (PoC) as the first objective, and 111,900 – 112,100 (VAH) as the second.
Stop Loss: Below 108,300.
Scenario 2 – Consolidation around PoC
The PoC area at 109,400 – 110,200 represents the equilibrium zone where price may consolidate.
In this case, short-term scalping strategies can be applied: buying near the lower bound (109,400) and selling near the upper bound (110,200).
Take Profit: Quick targets of 30–50 USD.
Stop Loss: 0.3–0.5%, depending on position sizing.
Scenario 3 – Breakout above VAH
A decisive close above the 111,900 – 112,100 (VAH) zone would confirm bullish continuation.
This breakout would likely attract momentum buyers and trigger stop orders.
Trade Setup: Place buy stops at 112,150 – 112,200, aiming for 112,800 as the first target and 113,500 (liquidity zone above) as the second.
Stop Loss: If price falls back below 111,700.
Scenario 4 – Breakdown of Demand Zone
If price closes firmly below 108,500 with high volume, it signals bearish continuation.
Such a breakdown opens the path to lower liquidity levels.
Trade Setup: Enter short via sell stops at 108,450 – 108,500.
Targets: 107,800 initially, followed by 106,500.
Stop Loss: Above 108,900.
✅ Summary
Bullish setups: Buy from 108,600 – 108,700 (Demand Zone) or on breakout above 112,100.
Bearish setups: Sell if 108,500 breaks, or look for rejection signals near 113,000.
Solana: Target Zone in FocusSOL has dropped more than 20% from last Thursday’s high. In light of this, we now believe that last week’s high—reached on Thursday—marked the top of wave i in orange, and that price is currently undergoing a wave ii corrective phase. This correction should play out as a downward, three-part move labeled - - in green, ultimately targeting our orange zone between $155.80 and $113.20. We expect the low of this wave ii to occur within that Target Zone, which should set the stage for a bullish reversal. The following wave iii in orange is projected to push SOL to new all-time highs, breaking through resistance at $295.31.
XAUUSD - MARKET CONTEXT I SEP/26/2025- Gold is still consolidating inside a triangle pattern with two trendlines: H1 downtrend (dynamic resistance) and H1 uptrend (dynamic support).
- Current price is 3746, right at the POC + Reject Zone, showing a balance between supply and demand.
Key technical levels:
VaH Zone: 3751–3753
POC Zone: 3740
VaL Zone: 3731
Deep Demand Zone: 3717–3720
🟢 SCENARIO 1 – BUY AT SUPPORT (PREFERRED WITH UPTREND HOLDING)
Entry conditions:
Price holds above H1 uptrend line.
Rejection candles (Pinbar, Engulfing) appear at 3731–3740 (POC + VaL zone).
Rationale:
Confluence of POC + VaL → strong liquidity.
H1 structure still forming Higher Lows → favoring trend-following buys.
🎯 Entry: 3731–3740
🛑 SL: Below 3720
✅ TP1: 3751 (VaH Zone)
✅ TP2: 3775 (Old High)
🔴 SCENARIO 2 – SHORT-TERM SELL FROM RESISTANCE
Entry conditions:
Price retests 3751–3755 (VaH Zone) but fails to break out.
Strong rejection signal forms.
Rationale:
VaH zone + dynamic resistance confluence.
If buying momentum weakens, this level could trap breakout buyers.
🎯 Entry: 3751–3755
🛑 SL: Above 3762
✅ TP1: 3740 (POC)
✅ TP2: 3731 (VaL Zone)
⚠️ SCENARIO 3 – WAIT FOR BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION
BUY breakout: If price clears 3775 with strong volume → new bullish leg opens, target 3790–3800.
SELL breakdown: If price breaks 3731 → potential retest of Demand Zone 3717 → 3700.
📌 RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
Main priority: BUY at support 3731–3740 in line with the uptrend.
Only consider short-term SELL if clear rejection appears at 3751–3755.
If market stays in tight range, stay out and wait for confirmation.
Crude Oil (H1) – Key Supply & Demand Scenarios I SEP/26/2025📌 Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (High Probability)
Condition: Price holds above demand 64.7 – 64.8.
Entry signal: H1 bullish candle closes above 65.4 with volume → Buy.
TP: 66.0 – 66.2
SL: below 64.6
📌 Scenario 2: Pullback then Bounce
Condition: Price gets rejected at 65.3 – 65.4, pulls back to retest 64.7 – 64.8.
Entry signal: Pinbar / Bullish engulfing candle at demand zone.
TP: 65.4 → 66.0
SL: below 64.5
📌 Scenario 3: Bearish Correction
Condition: Price breaks below demand 64.7 – 64.8.
Entry signal: Retest of broken zone with bearish rejection → Sell.
TP: 63.8 – 64.0
SL: above 65.0
📌 Scenario 4: Deeper Reversal
Condition: Price breaks below 63.8 – 64.0.
Entry signal: Retest supply flip + bearish confirmation candle.
TP: 63.0 – 63.1
SL: above 64.2
S&P 500: Rally Stalls, but Further Upside LikelyMidweek, the S&P 500 struggled to find the momentum needed to extend its climb within the magenta wave (3). However, our primary outlook still calls for this wave to reach a somewhat higher high. Afterward, wave (4) of the same color is expected to take over, guiding the index into the magenta Target Zone between 6,283 and 5,781 points. In wave (5), another upward phase is anticipated, which should ultimately complete the broader uptrend of the blue wave (III) at an even higher price level.
Bitcoin Elliott Wave Projection – Bullish Setup AheadBitcoin has recently completed a corrective ABC pattern, with the C leg finding strong support in the highlighted buy zone. At Level (A), a small bullish divergence appeared, signaling that the correction was nearing its end and a new impulsive cycle was likely to begin.
Wave Structure
Wave 1 has already formed, showing the first sign of strength after the correction.
Wave 2 is currently unfolding, retesting the buy zone and offering a strong accumulation opportunity.
The next major move is expected to be Wave 3, which is projected to extend toward 128300.
After a corrective pullback in Wave 4, the final push of Wave 5 could carry Bitcoin toward 134200.
Key Levels
Buy zone: 110000 – 112000
Wave 3 target: 128300
Wave 5 target: 134200
Summary
The bullish divergence, combined with the completed ABC correction and the developing impulsive wave structure, suggests that Bitcoin is preparing for a strong continuation to the upside. Holding above the buy zone keeps this bullish outlook intact, with significant upside potential in the coming weeks.
SET UP TRADE I SEP/25/2025🕯 SELL GOLD: 3765 – 3768
⚠️ SL: 3770
✔️ TP: 3761→ 3758→ 3755
👉 In trading, not entering a trade is also a decision. We only act when the market provides clear confirmation.
⏳ Patience not only protects you from liquidity sweeps, but also optimizes your risk-to-reward ratio (R:R).
EUR/USD Outlook: Key Buy & Sell Levels on H1 I SEP/25/2025🔎 Market Context
After testing the Supply zone 1.1820–1.1825, EUR/USD dropped sharply and has been forming a Lower High – Lower Low structure on H1 → confirming short-term bearish pressure.
Currently, price is testing the Demand zone 1.1730–1.1740, right at the downtrend line. This is a key decision zone: either a rebound or a breakdown for further decline.
Volume Profile highlights:
POC zone: 1.1800 → strong resistance.
VAH zone: 1.1812 → heavy supply area.
Demand zone: 1.1730–1.1740 → important support.
🟢 Scenario 1 – BUY at Demand zone 1.1730–1.1740
If reversal signals appear on M15–H1 (Pin Bar / Engulfing) at Demand → consider BUY.
This is a key support zone, high chance of a technical rebound.
🎯 Entry: 1.1730 – 1.1740
🛑 SL: below 1.1715
✅ TP1: 1.1780
✅ TP2: 1.1800 – 1.1812
🟡 Scenario 2 – BUY on deeper correction at 1.1715–1.1705
If the first Demand zone breaks, wait for price to drop into 1.1715–1.1705 support.
Look for absorption signs (slowing downside, bullish engulfing/fakey) to enter long.
🎯 Entry: 1.1715 – 1.1705
🛑 SL: below 1.1690
✅ TP1: 1.1755
✅ TP2: 1.1800+
🔴 Scenario 3 – Short-term SELL at POC/VAH zone 1.1800–1.1812
If price rebounds from Demand and climbs into POC/VAH zone but shows clear rejection (H1 Pin Bar / Bearish Engulfing) → SELL short-term.
Strong supply zone with high probability of buyer traps.
🎯 Entry: 1.1800 – 1.1812
🛑 SL: above 1.1825
✅ TP1: 1.1780
✅ TP2: 1.1740
⚡ Scenario 4 – BUY breakout above 1.1825 (Supply Zone)
If H1 closes decisively above 1.1825 with strong volume, short-term bearish structure is invalidated.
Potential new bullish wave starts.
🎯 Entry: 1.1825+ after successful retest
🛑 SL: below 1.1808
✅ TP1: 1.1850
✅ TP2: 1.1875 – 1.1885
📌 Strategy Summary
BUY priority: at Demand 1.1730–1.1740 or deeper support 1.1715–1.1705.
SELL short-term: at POC/VAH 1.1800–1.1812 if rejection appears.
BUY breakout: if price holds above 1.1825.
Manage risk strictly, avoid FOMO as liquidity sweeps may occur before direction is confirmed.
MARKET CONTEXT I SEP/25/2025SHOULD BE BUY OR SELL TODAY ?
- After forming a top around 3786–3790 (H1 VaH zone), gold has pulled back and is now consolidating in the 3735–3740 range.
- The main structure still maintains Higher Lows – Higher Highs on H1 and H4, confirming the medium-term uptrend remains intact.
- However, the current price is sitting right at the H4 Trendline + Liquidity zone 3737–3739, a sensitive area: either a bounce higher or a breakdown for a deeper test.
🟢 Scenario 1 – BUY at 3737–3739 (Liquidity zone + H4 Trendline)
Entry Conditions:
Reversal candles (Pin Bar/Engulfing) appear on M15–H1.
Price bounces immediately upon testing H4 trendline + liquidity zone.
Reason:
Key confluence zone: uptrendline + liquidity.
Market still in Higher Low – Higher High structure → bias remains bullish.
🎯 Entry: 3737–3739
🛑 SL: below 3724
✅ TP1: 3752
✅ TP2: 3778–3786
🟡 Scenario 2 – BUY on deeper correction at 3724–3717 (Key H1+H4 Support)
Entry Conditions:
Price hits 3724–3717 with absorption signals (declining volume on pullback).
Bullish confirmation candles (Engulfing/Fakey).
Reason:
Major support zone on both H1 and H4.
Pullback here could form another Higher Low for trend continuation.
🎯 Entry: 3724–3717
🛑 SL: below 3705
✅ TP1: 3752
✅ TP2: 3780+
🔴 Scenario 3 – Short-term SELL at 3780–3786 (VaH zone + Supply zone)
Entry Conditions:
Clear rejection (Pin Bar / Bearish Engulfing) on H1.
Weak breakout volume, no strength to push higher.
Rationale:
Strong resistance zone (VaH + old supply) with multiple reactions.
Suitable for quick SELL if buyer trap signs appear.
🎯 Entry: 3780–3786
🛑 SL: above 3795
✅ TP1: 3760
✅ TP2: 3740
⚡️ Scenario 4 – BUY breakout if price clears 3786
Entry Conditions:
Strong H1 close above 3786 with solid volume.
Successful retest of 3786, holding above.
Reason:
Breakout of VaH confirms a new bullish wave.
Opens the door toward 3800+.
🎯 Entry: 3786+ after retest
🛑 SL: below 3772
✅ TP1: 3804
✅ TP2: 3815–3820
📌 Strategy Summary
Priority: BUY at supports (3737–3739 or 3724–3717) if confirmation signals appear.
SELL: Only consider if strong rejection shows up at 3780–3786 resistance.
Breakout Plan: If price holds above 3786 → switch bias to BUY breakout.
Manage risk strictly, avoid FOMO as liquidity sweeps may occur before direction is chosen.
CHART SPEAKS- PSU BANKS#NiftyBank - PSU Banks have been rallying over a week. News came in Today. Was someone already aware of this?
The NEWS
UPDATE ON PSU BANKS: GOVT CONSIDERING TO RAISE FOREIGN INVESTMENT LIMITS IN PSU BANKS FROM THE CURRENT 20% -ET NOW
That's why I am Strong believer of Price Action. #Chartspeaks #chartsabkuchboltahai
Tesla: Upward Momentum PersistsTesla’s upward momentum has persisted, with the beige wave x still having some room to run. However, we expect the corrective top to form well below resistance at $532.92, which should then trigger the final selling phase within the broader correction. Ultimately, wave y is projected to approach our blue Target Zone between $157.88 and $46.70, completing the large blue wave (II) in that range. Afterward, we anticipate a new wave (III) uptrend. That said, there remains a 40% probability that price may not reach the blue zone, as wave alt.(II) could have already completed at $215.01. In this scenario, TSLA would already be developing a magenta upward impulse and could break above the $532.92 level directly and sustainably.
Disney: Wave [iv] Still UnfoldingAfter an extended period of sideways trading, Walt Disney has come under renewed pressure, indicating that the low for magenta wave has likely not yet been reached. To better contextualize the recent price action, we have incorporated a blue WXY three-part corrective pattern within this wave, which should continue down to the support level at $108.78. Afterward, the magenta impulse wave is expected to complete turquoise wave 1 above resistance at $124.90. We then anticipate a wave 2 correction, which should bottom out within our long Target Zone between $97.18 and $85.12. On the other hand, our alternative scenario suggests that turquoise wave alt.1 may already be finished. A break below the $108.78 level would confirm this outlook and immediately shift focus to the Target Zone (probability: 40%).






















