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$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 10–14, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 10–14, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Shutdown overhang persists: Key October inflation and retail reports remain at risk of delay due to limited government data releases. Market direction may rely on Fed commentary and positioning shifts more than fresh data. 📉 Inflation in focus: The CPI (Thursday) remains the main event — if it releases — as traders gauge whether cooling prices justify the market’s aggressive rate-cut bets. 💬 Fed blitz: Nearly a dozen Fed officials speak this week, including Waller, Williams, Miran, and Bostic, providing clues on how close the Fed feels to easing. 🏦 Veterans Day week rhythm: With Tuesday’s bond market closure, liquidity may thin until the CPI print, creating potential for sharp post-data reactions. 📊 Friday volatility setup: Retail Sales and PPI (if released) will shape the final inflation read-through for Q4 spending momentum. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) MONDAY, Nov 10 — No major releases scheduled TUESDAY, Nov 11 (Veterans Day, bond market closed) ⏰ 6:00 AM — NFIB Optimism Index (Oct) ⏰ 10:25 AM — Michael Barr (Fed Gov) speech WEDNESDAY, Nov 12 ⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) speech ⏰ 10:00 AM — Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed) speech ⏰ 10:20 AM — Chris Waller (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 12:15 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech ⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 4:00 PM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) speech THURSDAY, Nov 13 — CPI Day (High Impact) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (Oct) ⚠️ Subject to shutdown delay   • Headline CPI: +0.2% expected   • Core CPI (YoY): TBD ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 8) ⚠️ May be delayed ⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) speech ⏰ 12:15 PM — Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) speech ⏰ 12:20 PM — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) speech ⏰ 2:00 PM — Federal Budget Statement (Oct) | $257.5B deficit ⏰ 3:20 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech FRIDAY, Nov 14 — Retail & PPI (High Impact) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Oct) ⚠️ May be delayed ⏰ 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (Oct) ⚠️ May be delayed ⏰ 10:05 AM — Jeff Schmid (Kansas City Fed) speech ⏰ 2:30 PM — Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) speech ⚠️ Note: All starred data (CPI, Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, PPI, Business Inventories) remain subject to delay under the continuing government shutdown. Markets may trade on Fed tone and yield movement in the absence of these releases. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #Fed #CPI #RetailSales #inflation #bonds #macro #yields #markets #shutdown #Bostic #Waller #Williams #Logan
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 7, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Jobs Day: The October Employment Report headlines Friday, with payrolls expected at -60,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% — signaling labor market cooling. 📉 Policy implications: A weak print would reinforce expectations for multiple rate cuts in early 2026, while upside surprises could stall the dovish momentum. 💬 Fed watch: Morning remarks from Williams and Jefferson set the tone before the data drop; Miran rounds out the week with a late-day speech. ⚠️ Shutdown delays: The Employment Report and related labor metrics are at risk of delay pending government data releases, adding uncertainty to Friday’s open. 📊 Sentiment & credit check: U-Mich Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Credit round out the macro picture. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 3:00 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) speech ⏰ 7:00 AM — Philip Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair) speech ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — U.S. Employment Report (Oct) — subject to delay   • Nonfarm Payrolls: -60,000   • Unemployment Rate: 4.5%   • Hourly Wages (MoM): 0.3% ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Nov) | 53.0 expected ⏰ 3:00 PM — Consumer Credit (Sept) | $10.0B expected ⏰ 3:00 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech ⚠️ Note: The Employment Report, Unemployment Rate, and Wage Data are flagged at risk of delay due to the government shutdown. All other releases are expected on time. Market volatility will hinge on whether the data prints or is postponed. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #JobsReport #NFP #Fed #Jefferson #Williams #inflation #yields #macro #shutdown
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 5, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 First clean data of the week: After delays in earlier reports, Wednesday brings ADP Employment and ISM Services — the first confirmed macro prints to gauge real economic momentum. 📉 Labor tone check: ADP’s private payroll growth of 22,000 vs -32,000 prior suggests continued softness but potential stabilization ahead of Friday’s NFP. 💼 Services resilience: ISM Services expected to tick up slightly to 50.5, hovering near the expansion line — a critical signal for Q4 GDP trajectory. 💬 Market tone: With shutdown-delayed data still missing, traders focus on rate-cut odds, yields, and Treasury auctions for directional cues. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 8:15 AM — ADP Employment (Oct) | +22,000 vs -32,000 prior 🚩 ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Final U.S. Services PMI (Oct) | 55.2 ⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services (Oct) | 50.5 expected, 50.0 prior 🚩 ⚠️ Note: Unlike earlier-week reports, all of Wednesday’s data are confirmed to release on schedule — making this the first meaningful macro catalyst since the FOMC. Expect intraday volatility around 8:15 AM (ADP) and 10:00 AM (ISM). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #ADP #ISM #PMI #yields #Fed #inflation #bonds #economy #macro
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 5, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 First clean data of the week: After delays in earlier reports, Wednesday brings ADP Employment and ISM Services — the first confirmed macro prints to gauge real economic momentum. 📉 Labor tone check: ADP’s private payroll growth of 22,000 vs -32,000 prior suggests continued softness but potential stabilization ahead of Friday’s NFP. 💼 Services resilience: ISM Services expected to tick up slightly to 50.5, hovering near the expansion line — a critical signal for Q4 GDP trajectory. 💬 Market tone: With shutdown-delayed data still missing, traders focus on rate-cut odds, yields, and Treasury auctions for directional cues. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 8:15 AM — ADP Employment (Oct) | +22,000 vs -32,000 prior 🚩 ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Final U.S. Services PMI (Oct) | 55.2 ⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services (Oct) | 50.5 expected, 50.0 prior 🚩 ⚠️ Note: Unlike earlier-week reports, all of Wednesday’s data are confirmed to release on schedule — making this the first meaningful macro catalyst since the FOMC. Expect intraday volatility around 8:15 AM (ADP) and 10:00 AM (ISM). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #ADP #ISM #PMI #yields #Fed #inflation #bonds #economy #macro
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 4, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 4, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Jobs data on deck: Tuesday’s focus is on labor demand — the JOLTS report remains a key barometer for wage pressure, though it may not print due to the shutdown. ⚠️ Data blackout continues: The Trade Balance and Factory Orders are both delayed government releases, keeping markets dependent on Fed tone and price action. 💬 Fed-speak pre-jobs: Vice Chair Bowman’s early-morning remarks will frame policy bias ahead of ADP and Friday’s NFP. 💻 Volatility compression: With few confirmed reports, traders watch AMEX:SPY ’s range behavior and TVC:VIX positioning before the labor-data surge mid-week. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 6:35 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair) speech ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — U.S. Trade Deficit (Sept) — may not print ⏰ ⚠️ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Sept) — may not print ⏰ ⚠️ 10:00 AM — Job Openings (JOLTS, Sept) — may not print ⚠️ Note: All three macro reports are subject to delay under the continuing government shutdown. Expect headline-driven trading and low data-volume volatility until Wednesday’s ADP and ISM Services releases. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Bowman #JOLTS #TradeBalance #FactoryOrders #bonds #yields #economy #shutdown #macro
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 3 → Nov 7, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 3 → Nov 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Post-FOMC digestion: After Powell’s Oct 29 presser, traders watch whether yields and the dollar cool or extend higher. 📈 Labor-week spotlight: Friday’s Jobs Report (NFP, wages, unemployment) anchors the week — rate-path odds hinge on those prints. 💬 Fed tone in focus: Multiple governors and regional presidents hit the circuit after the FOMC — every nuance matters for December guidance. ⚠️ Shutdown watch: Several BEA and Census releases (Factory Orders, Trade Balance, GDP components) may not print on time if the government remains partially shuttered. 💻 Earnings taper off: Final big-cap names and sector leaders wrap Q3 results, shaping sentiment into mid-November. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) Mon Nov 3 ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Sept) | Ex-transportation subset — BEA report; possible delay ⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Sept) ⚠️ possible delay Tue Nov 4 ⏰ 9:00 AM — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Oct) 🚩 Wed Nov 5 ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Advanced Trade Balance in Goods (Sept) | Retail and Wholesale Inventories — Census; may be delayed ⏰ 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Sept) ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Rate Decision ⏰ 🚩 2:30 PM — Fed Chair Powell Press Conference Thu Nov 6 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25) expected on schedule ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — GDP (Q3, Advance) ⚠️ BEA data; delay possible ⏰ 9:55 AM — Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speaks Fri Nov 7 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — PCE and Core PCE (Sept) along with Personal Income, Spending, and Employment Cost Index ⚠️ BEA risk ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Oct) ⏰ 12:00 PM — Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Atlanta Fed President Bostic remarks ⚠️ Note: Shutdown risk applies to BEA and Census releases marked with ⚠️ Confirmed live data include Jobless Claims, FOMC decisions, and Fed speeches — these will drive most of the week’s price action. Friday’s PCE print (if released) remains the key inflation gauge. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #FOMC #PCE #GDP #JoblessClaims #inflation #bonds #yields #economy #macro
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
1
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 20 → Oct 24, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 20 → Oct 24, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Inflation week: The delayed CPI release on Friday could be the first key data drop since the shutdown began — all eyes on price momentum and Fed expectations. 📉 Jobless Claims live feed: The only consistent macro signal right now — still reporting despite shutdown; any uptick could rattle yields and growth sentiment. 💬 Fed tone matters more: Policymakers continue to speak through the data void; expect market sensitivity to even minor policy hints. 💻 Earnings peak week: Roughly 80+ S&P 500 names report, including several mega-caps — likely to set the tone for AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Mon 10/20 ⏰ No major scheduled data Tue 10/21 ⏰ No major scheduled data Wed 10/22 ⏰ No major scheduled data Thu 10/23 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 18) — only active weekly macro indicator ⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Sept) (may be delayed due to shutdown) Fri 10/24 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (CPI & Core CPI, Sept) (delayed release expected) ⚠️ Note: With most official data frozen, Jobless Claims and CPI carry extra weight. Expect sharp intraday swings on any surprise readings or leaks. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #CPI #JoblessClaims #Fed #inflation #bonds #yields #shutdown #earnings #economy #megacaps #datawatch
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 17, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 17, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Data blackout risk: Friday was set for key housing and production reports — but the ongoing shutdown means most prints (Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Import Prices) may not be released. 📉 Macro vacuum: With no confirmed data, traders lean on positioning and bond moves to gauge growth sentiment into the weekend. 💬 Earnings carry the weight: Corporate results take the spotlight as macro inputs dry up. 💻 Technical tone: AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ watchlist rotation continues — watch volatility pockets if liquidity fades mid-session. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Sept) — scheduled but may not print ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Sept) — scheduled release ⏰ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Sept) — scheduled but may not print ⚠️ Note: Friday wraps a quiet macro week dominated by missing data and Fed commentary. Expect a headline-driven close with limited participation ahead of weekend risk. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #housing #IndustrialProduction #ImportPrices #Fed #bonds #economy #shutdown #yields #equities
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 16, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Big macro day — if it happens: Retail Sales & PPI headline the morning, but both reports may be delayed under the ongoing shutdown. Markets will trade on expectation and reaction instead of prints. 📈 Consumer + price pulse: These two data points were expected to test the “soft-landing” narrative — inflation vs. spending resilience. 💬 Fed-speak heavy: Barkin, Waller, Bowman, and Miran dominate the lineup; tone on inflation stickiness may shape yields. 🏠 Housing check: Homebuilder Confidence offers a softer read on the real-economy drag from higher mortgage rates. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:00 AM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed) remarks ⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Sept) & PPI (Sept) — scheduled but may not print ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 11) — scheduled release ⏰ 9:00 AM — Stephen Miran & Christopher Waller (Fed Govs) speeches ⏰ 10:00 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) remarks + Homebuilder Confidence (Oct) ⏰ 12:45 PM / 4:30 PM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed) speeches ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #RetailSales #PPI #Fed #Barkin #Waller #Bowman #Miran #inflation #bonds #shutdown #economy #yields #housing
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Growth pulse check: The Empire State Manufacturing Survey kicks off the day — a real-time test of factory sentiment post-summer slowdown. 📘 Fed Beige Book afternoon drop: Key read on regional activity and inflation anecdotes — markets often reposition after release. 💬 Fed parade continues: Bostic, Miran, and Waller keep rate-cut expectations in focus ahead of Thursday’s data risk. ⚠️ Shutdown overhang: Broader data (CPI/PPI/Retail) still paused — traders key off qualitative signals like Beige Book tone. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct) ⏰ 12:10 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech ⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 1:00 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book ⚠️ Note: Shutdown continues to delay most federal data releases. Beige Book offers the only official economic snapshot this week — high read-through for inflation, wages, and business conditions. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #BeigeBook #EmpireState #Waller #Bostic #Miran #bonds #yields #inflation #shutdown #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Powell returns: The Fed Chair’s midday remarks anchor Tuesday — traders watch tone shifts after a light Columbus Day tape. 💬 Fed-heavy lineup: Bowman, Waller, and Collins fill out the day — policymaker divergence could move yields and risk assets. 📈 Small biz sentiment: NFIB optimism opens the day, giving early insight into Main Street labor and inflation pressures. ⚠️ Shutdown overhang: Broader data flow still limited — markets key off Fed speak and earnings momentum. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sept) ⏰ 8:45 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 🚩 12:20 PM — Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech ⏰ 3:25 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 3:30 PM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) speech ⚠️ Note: No high-tier macro data releases due to shutdown effects — Fed communication and earnings dominate the tape. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Powell #Fed #Waller #Bowman #Collins #NFIB #yields #bonds #shutdown #economy #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
1
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 13–17, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 13–17, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Inflation-heavy week: PPI, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production headline the macro slate — but several may be ⚠️subject to delay due to the shutdown. 💬 Fed circuit overload: 10+ Fed speakers including Bowman, Waller, Bostic, Barkin, and Miran — tone-watching replaces missing data. 📉 Consumer & housing pulse: Retail Sales, Homebuilder Confidence, and Housing Starts offer critical insight into demand — if they post on time. 💻 Earnings meets macro: Early Q3 results from banks + big tech guide sentiment alongside muted macro signals. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 📅 Mon, Oct 13 — Columbus Day 🇺🇸 (Bond Market Closed) ⏰ 12:55 PM — Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed) speaks 📅 Tue, Oct 14 ⏰ 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sept) ⏰ 8:45 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 3:25 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 3:30 PM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) speech 📅 Wed, Oct 15 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct) ⏰ 12:10 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech ⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 1:00 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book 📅 Thu, Oct 16 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Sept) — ⚠️ May be delayed due to shutdown ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Sept) — ⚠️ May be delayed ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 11) — ⚠️ At risk of delay ⏰ 9:00 AM — Waller & Miran (Fed Govs) speeches ⏰ 10:00 AM — Homebuilder Confidence (Oct) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) remarks ⏰ 12:45 PM / 4:30 PM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed) speeches 📅 Fri, Oct 17 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Housing Starts / Building Permits (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay ⏰ 🚩 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay ⚠️ Shutdown Watch: Several economic reports (Retail Sales, PPI, Jobless Claims, Housing, Industrial Production) depend on agencies like the Census Bureau, BLS, and BEA — if the shutdown persists, these will be postponed until government funding resumes. Expect headline-driven trading, Fed-speak sensitivity, and lighter macro liquidity through the week. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #Bowman #Waller #Bostic #Barkin #Miran #RetailSales #PPI #BeigeBook #inflation #bonds #shutdown #economy #housing #earnings #macro
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 10, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Consumer pulse check: UMich prelim sentiment drops back into focus — inflation expectations will steer bond yields & risk tone. 📉 Shutdown drag: Budget data may stay delayed — leaving traders to anchor on Fed commentary & macro positioning. 💬 Fed watch: Goolsbee’s remarks could frame how policymakers interpret slowing sentiment versus resilient inflation. 💻 End-week flows: Re-balancing pressure + light liquidity could magnify afternoon swings in AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) opening remarks ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Oct) — Forecast 60.4 | Prior 53.5 ⏰ 2:00 PM — Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Sept) subject to delay due to shutdown ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Goolsbee #UMich #sentiment #budget #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #economy #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 9, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Powell spotlight: The Fed Chair’s morning remarks set the tone for risk sentiment — traders watching for policy bias hints. 💬 Fed overload: Bowman, Kashkari, Barr, and Daly dominate the docket — expect intraday rate-path chatter. 📉 Shutdown shadows: Jobless Claims* and Inventories* may face data delays; market liquidity remains headline-driven. 💻 Macro rotation: AMEX:SPY trades tightly to yield moves; tech leadership faces cross-currents as real rates stay firm. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Fed Chair Jerome Powell opening remarks ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 4) subject to delay ⏰ 8:35 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision) welcoming remarks ⏰ 8:45 AM — Michelle Bowman speech ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Aug)* subject to delay ⏰ 12:45 PM — Neel Kashkari + Michael Barr discussion ⏰ 3:45 PM — Michelle Bowman speech ⏰ 4:10 PM — Mary Daly (SF Fed) speech ⏰ 9:40 PM — Mary Daly evening remarks ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #Bowman #Kashkari #Barr #Daly #joblessclaims #bonds #Dollar #shutdown #economy #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 8, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 8, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 FOMC Minutes drop: Traders zero in on the Fed’s tone around balance sheet runoff and rate-cut timing clues. 📉 Macro sentiment reset: Bond yields + USD volatility remain key — equities tracking real-rate shifts post-minutes. 💬 Fed chorus continues: Barr, Kashkari, and Goolsbee headline a dense speaker lineup shaping policy narrative. 💻 Tech leadership check: Mega-caps face another liquidity test as macro dominates tape action. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 9:20 AM — Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) remarks ⏰ 9:30 AM — Michael Barr (Fed Governor) speech ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (September Meeting) ⏰ 3:15 PM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) speech ⏰ 5:45 PM — Michael Barr (Fed Governor) remarks ⏰ 7:15 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) speech ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Fed #Powell #Barr #Kashkari #Goolsbee #minutes #bonds #Dollar #economy #megacaps
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Oct 7, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Oct 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Shutdown overhang: The U.S. Trade Deficit release remains at risk; traders lean on Fed commentary for macro tone. 📉 Rates + dollar watch: Treasury yields stay elevated ahead of FOMC Minutes (Wed); AMEX:SPY sensitivity to TVC:DXY remains high. 💬 Fed parade: Five speakers on deck — market parsing for any shift in post-Powell narrative. 💻 Tech + liquidity: $AAPL/ NASDAQ:MSFT flows continue driving AMEX:XLK rotation amid tightening liquidity backdrop. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — U.S. Trade Deficit (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech ⏰ 10:05 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision) remarks ⏰ 10:45 AM — Stephen Miran (Fed Governor) speech ⏰ 11:30 AM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) speech ⏰ 3:00 PM — Consumer Credit (Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #Bostic #Bowman #Kashkari #Miran #tradebalance #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #megacaps #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 6 → Oct 10, 2025 🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 6 → Oct 10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Shutdown overhang: Some data (Trade, Jobless Claims, Budget) remain at risk of delay; markets lean on Fed tone instead. 📉 Fed-heavy week: Nearly every regional president and governor is on deck — tone from Powell (Thu) + FOMC Minutes (Wed) = the core catalyst. 💻 Earnings prep: Q3 pre-announcements begin — NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:NVDA remain leadership barometers. 💵 Rates & positioning: 10Y yields and USD remain key drivers into mid-month CPI/PPI stretch. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Mon 10/6 ⏰ 5:00 PM — Jeff Schmid (Kansas City Fed) speech Tue 10/7 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — U.S. Trade Deficit (Aug) ⏰ 3:00 PM — Consumer Credit (Aug) 🗣️ Fed Speakers — Bostic (10:00), Bowman (10:05, 8:35, 8:45), Miran (10:45, 4:05), Kashkari (11:30) Wed 10/8 ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (September Meeting) 🗣️ Fed Speakers — Musalem (9:20), Barr (9:30, 5:45), Kashkari (3:15), Goolsbee (7:15) Thu 10/9 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 4) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Fed Chair Powell remarks (opening keynote) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Aug) 🗣️ Fed Speakers — Bowman (8:35, 8:45, 3:45), Kashkari + Barr (12:45), Daly (4:10, 9:40 PM) Fri 10/10 ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Oct) ⏰ 2:00 PM — U.S. Federal Budget (Sept) 🗣️ Fed Speakers — Goolsbee (9:45) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Powell #FOMC #Fed #joblessclaims #tradebalance #consumerconfidence #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #megacaps #economy
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 3, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 NFP risk — but delayed: September Employment Report, unemployment rate, and wages won’t publish if shutdown continues. Markets will run on positioning + PMIs instead. 📉 Labor vacuum: Absence of NFP could amplify volatility as traders trade on speculation. 💬 Fed-heavy Friday: A parade of Fed speakers guides tone into weekend positioning. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 6:05 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) speech ⏰ 8:30 AM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) TV appearance 🚩 At Risk of Delay (shutdown): • 8:30 AM — Employment Report (Sep): Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Avg. Hourly Earnings ✅ Still Publishing: ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Final Services PMI (Sep) ⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services (Sep) 🗣️ Fed Speakers: • 9:30 AM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov, TV) • 1:30 PM — Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) • 1:40 PM — Philip Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair) • 3:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov, TV) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #NFP #jobs #Fed #Powell #shutdown #ISM #PMI #bonds #Dollar #economy
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 2, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 2, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Shutdown watch: Traders brace for possible delays in major data releases; only essential reports like jobless claims likely to print. 📉 Post-ADP/ISM digestion: Markets recalibrate after Wednesday’s jobs + factory data ahead of Friday’s 🚩 NFP. 💵 Fed chatter: Dallas Fed’s Logan adds to policy tone as markets parse shutdown + labor signals. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) (will publish even under shutdown) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug) (at risk of delay if shutdown persists) ⏰ 10:30 AM — Fed Speaker: Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #joblessclaims #factoryorders #Fed #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #economy
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 1, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 1, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Jobs + factories double hit: ADP jobs and ISM Manufacturing kick off October with the labor + growth pulse. 📉 Q4 repositioning: Funds reset exposures after quarter-end — volatility risk elevated. 🛢️ Auto lens: Auto sales (TBA) add color on consumer durability. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment (Sep) ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Final Manufacturing PMI (Sep) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Construction Spending (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing (Sep) ⏰ TBA — Auto Sales (Sep) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #ADP #ISM #manufacturing #jobs #economy #Dollar #bonds #autos #megacaps
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 30, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Q3 closeout: Last trading day of September = quarter-end rebalancing flows in equities and bonds. 💵 Fed watch: Multiple Fed speakers across the day keep policy tone in focus. 💻 Mega-cap drift: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:NVDA leadership remains sensitive to yields + growth data. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 9:00 AM — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jul, 20-city) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Sep, Conf. Board) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Sep) 🗣️ Fed Speakers: • 6:00 AM — Philip Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair) • 9:00 AM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) • 1:30 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) • 3:30 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed, TV appearance) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #JOLTS #ConsumerConfidence #CaseShiller #PMI #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 29 → Oct 3, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 29 → Oct 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Month/Q3 closeout: Quarter-end rebalancing + fund flows set tone early in the week. 🚩 Jobs Week: ADP (Wed) + NFP (Fri) will dominate macro narrative and Fed expectations. 💻 Mega-cap rotation: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT drive tech leadership amid yield volatility. 🌐 Housing + confidence: Home sales + Case-Shiller + sentiment test consumer resilience. 💵 Rates & Fed tone: Packed Fed speaker slate keeps policy path in play alongside data. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Mon 9/29 ⏰ 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Aug) Tue 9/30 ⏰ 🚩 9:00 AM — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jul) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Sep) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Sep) Wed 10/1 ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment (Sep) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing (Sep) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Construction Spending (Aug) ⏰ TBA — Auto Sales (Sep) Thu 10/2 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug) Fri 10/3 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Unemployment Rate (Sep) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Average Hourly Earnings (Sep) ⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services (Sep) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #NFP #ADP #Fed #Powell #jobs #unemployment #wages #housing #consumerconfidence #PMI #bonds #Dollar #megacaps
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 26, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Month-end flows: Positioning shuffle as traders square books into Q3-end. 💵 Fed lens: Multiple Fed appearances keep policy tone in focus post-SEP. 💻 Tech + growth watch: AMEX:XLK flows remain sensitive to yields + inflation gauges. 🛢️ Commodities check: Oil and dollar volatility continue to set cross-asset tone. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Spending (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — PCE Price Index (Aug) + Core PCE (YoY & MoM) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Sentiment (Final, Sep) 🗣️ Fed Speakers: • 7:30 AM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed, TV appearance) • 9:00 AM — Tom Barkin (speech) • 1:00 PM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #inflation #Fed #Powell #joblessclaims #consumer #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao