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Circle

Circle: The Next-Generation USD-Based Payment NetworkThe past 17-year stock price CAGR of Visa and Mastercard (22.6% and 25.4%, respectively) is the result of payment volume growth (around 8–10% annually) translating into revenue and profit growth, amplified by share buybacks that increase per-share value. The fact that their stock prices have risen far more than USD M2 growth (6.1%) also reflects network effects and margin expansion. In Circle's case, more than 95% of current revenue comes from USDC reserve interest income (from short-term Treasuries). If USDC supply grows at a 12% CAGR: Reserve income will increase roughly in line with the supply growth rate. While a 12% growth in USDC supply serves as the revenue base, Circle is less transaction-fee-centric than Visa/Mastercard and has higher dependence on interest income, so a certain discount should be applied. The actual growth rate could be even higher than what was calculated based on this foundation. This was estimated conservatively. In conclusion, since growth is based on the increase in currency issuance, the growth trends will be similar.
NYSE:CRCLLong
by TestPattern
Circle - Opportunity to Accumulate AheadI like to think this interesting stock is in its final Elliott Wave leg, which makes things pretty intriguing right now. For me, this sets up an opportunity to start looking at accumulation heading into mid 4Q25. Looking out for indiscriminate selling pressure around certain catalysts. Key events to watch: the 3Q earnings release (likely mid-Oct to Nov 2025, though the date isn’t confirmed yet) and the standard 180-day IPO unlock. Based on the timeline, that could either hit right after earnings or on December 2, 2025, depending on when the restrictions technically roll off. There might also be a secondary unlock post-earnings, which adds another layer of potential supply. From a technical standpoint, the upcoming increase in float means liquidity could flood the market. That usually opens the door to more downside pressure, which in this case could complete the final leg of the Elliott Wave correction. I’m eyeing the 90–100 range as a potential accumulation zone once the dust settles. On the macro side, it’s hard to ignore the broader risk backdrop. Crypto is flashing some warning signs—BTC sitting around 112k while ETH is at 4.2k, and we just saw ETH break its support level right after the Fed’s rate cut. Feels very much like a “sell the news” setup, which makes me think we could be staring down the start of a crypto winter. All in all, this stock remains fascinating, but timing will be key. Let’s see how it plays out once supply flows in and the final wave structure completes. Stay sane out there, and may the odds be in your favor. Good luck.
NYSE:CRCL
by Iapiew
3
Analysis on circle using tpo and regular chart longs and shortMust watch video giving 2 really nice Risk reward entries on the Newley listed stock Circle In this video I highlight a region using limited data of where to get filled if you missed the IPO and want to buy some circle . We are currently in a no trade zone for buyers as I anticipate that price will gravitate down to the .786/.886 level over time . In this video I also use the TPO chart "Time price opportunity" and demonstrate what i am looking for from using this type of chart to add to my confluences for a high probability trade . Also identified in the chart is a short trade off of the weekly pivots and the value area high of the range . Thankyou for watching and i welcome any questions
NYSE:CRCL
by SJTRADESFUTURES
7
You continue to ask "how did he know Circle would do that"?I keep stats on my predicitons and so should you. How else would you know who to follow? July 23rd- I suggested that Circle was approaching an inflection point at my bearish target T1. Aug 2nd - The bullish scenanrio was quickly invalidated as Circle broke below my T1 red box & entered my bearish T2. At that point I suggested Circle would go lower before a bounce. Aug 12th- Circle did drop lower into T2 as predicted, followed by my anticipated bounce (+25%) Aug 12th I also wrote, "But is Circle going lower? If/when Circle breaks below this recent low I will post my T3 targets". If you want me to post T3 targets leave a comment. May the trends be with you.
NYSE:CRCL
by Strangely-accurate
5
Circle hit my T2 & bounced as expected. But is it going lower?Target and bounce confirmed. On Aug 2nd I wrote: "Circle has now entered my worst case scenario (T2). There may be lower, before Circle gets a bounce" (see Aug 2nd chart below). As of today, Aug 12th: Target 2 (red T2 box) hit lower as anticipated 25% bounce from mt T2 target, now confirmed. TA works again! But is Circle going lower? If/when Circle breaks below this recent low I will post my T3 targets. May the trends be with you.
NYSE:CRCL
by Strangely-accurate
Stablecoins will Supercharge Cryptos AdoptionCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! ), #microfutures On June 5th, Circle Internet Group ( NYSE:CRCL ), issuer of the #USDC #stablecoin, debuted its initial public offering at $31 per share. By June 23rd, NYSE:CRCL prices peaked at $298.99, up nearly ten folds in just 13 trading days. At Friday's closing of $180.43, Circle has a market cap at $40.2 billion. Wall Street gave a mindboggling price earnings ratio of 234, based on Circle’s $0.77 earnings per share. How to Invest in Stablecoins Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that aim to maintain price stability. Both USDC and #USDT (issued by #Tether) peg their value to the US dollar. Paying $1 for 1 stablecoin, you will get exactly $1 back in one month, one year, or ten years. Unlike buying Bitcoin, there is no investment return for holding stablecoins. So why would anyone want them? Because stablecoins are not investment instruments, instead, they are payment methods. Like PayPal and Apple Pay, USDT and USDC enable users to move money fast and cheaply globally, but now in the crypto world. How do stablecoin issuers make money? They generate revenue through interest on reserves, transaction fees, lending, and partnerships with financial institutions. • The biggest source of revenue is interest income. When it comes to stablecoin issuers, size matters, and the Fed matters. • Based on a study by Artemis, Castle Island Ventures, and Dragonfly on May 29th, USDT and USDC have a combined market capitalization of over $214 billion. • With the Fed Funds rate averaging above 5% last year, the $214 billion reserve investing in Treasury and other high-quality bonds could yield at least $12 billion between Tether and Circle. • Tether reported 2024 profit of $13 billion, while Circle generated $1.68 billion last year. Investing in stablecoins means buying Circle stock, not converting cash into USDC. The difference is like buying Apple stock vs. adding money in your Apple Pay account. Headwinds and Tailwinds On June 17th, the US Senate passed the GENIUS Act of 2025. It establishes a regulatory framework for the $250 billion market for stablecoins. “Stablecoins are a paradigm-shifting development that can bring our payment system into the 21st century", declared Sen. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, who introduced the bill. With regulatory certainty, real-world utility and adoption will quickly follow. The future for stablecoins is very bright, and I expect the market size to double soon. However, market leaders Tether and Circle both face strong headwinds going forward. • Real world utility brings in fierce competition. Big banks and credit card issuers will create their own stablecoins to keep customers on the book. This will slow down Tether’s and Circle’s efforts to attract mainstream financial investors. • I expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a lot during the remaining 3-1/2 years of the Trump Administration. Some cuts will happen under the current Fed Chair. A lot more will come by his successor beginning June 2026. Lowering interest rates by 100-200 basis points will cripple stablecoin issuers’ main income. In my opinion, the high dependency in growth and interest rate policies make NYSE:CRCL a very risky investment at the current lofty valuation. Bullish Signal for Bitcoin In the past, stablecoins were mainly used by crypto investors. Going forward, mainstream investors will find compelling offerings from their banks, stockbrokers and credit card companies. When mainstream financial intermediaries begin making serious inroad into cryptos, there will be a paradigm shift. In my opinion, the new development in stablecoins will supercharge the growth of crypto market size. Bitcoin, being well established as a Digital Gold, will benefit the most from the global asset reallocation to cryptocurrencies. An investor sharing a bullish view on bitcoin could explore the CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( LSE:MBT ). Last Friday, the August MBT contract (BTCQ5) was settled at 108,640. Each contract has a notional value of 0.1 bitcoin, or a market value of $10,864. To buy or sell 1 contract, trader is required to post an initial margin of $2,598. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 4-to-1, which is more cost-effective that buying bitcoins from any ETF fund. A long MTC strategy with a stop-loss would enhance the returns while limiting the potential losses. Below is a hypothetical trade for illustration purposes only: On Day T+0, buy 1 BTCQ5 at 108,640 and set a stop loss at 105,000 • The portfolio value is 10,864 • Upfront margin is $2,598 Rising Bitcoin Scenario: On Day T+N, Bitcoin goes up 20% to $130,368 • Futures gain will be $2,172.8 (= (130368-108640) x 0.1) • Investment return will be +86.6% (= 2172.8 / 2598), excluding transaction fees • This compares to a 20% gain with bitcoin ETF, with no leverage Falling Bitcoin Scenario: On Day T+N, Bitcoin drops 20% to $86,912 • With a stop-loss at 105,000, losses will be capped at $364 (= (108640-105000) x 0.1) • Investment return will be -14% (= -364 / 2598) • This compares to a 20% loss with bitcoin ETF, with no stoploss provision Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
Circle Collapse - Will COIN follow? Circle stock has been on a wild ride lately After a meteoric rise of over 700% since its IPO on June 5, it's now facing some turbulence: - Today, the stock dropped nearly 16%, partly due to Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest selling $110 million worth of shares. - Analysts are also sounding caution. Compass Point initiated coverage with a $205 price target—below its current trading price—citing rising competition in the stable coin space. - Despite the dip, some still see long-term potential. A recent Forbes analysis explored whether Circle could hit $500 per share, driven by growth in USDC reserves and infrastructure revenue.
NASDAQ:COINShort
by Trading-Capital
CRCL Weekly Bearish Setup (Week of 2025-06-09)📉 CRCL Weekly Bearish Setup (Week of 2025-06-09) 🔍 Ticker: NYSE:CRCL Multi-model AI consensus indicates a bearish short-term outlook for CRCL this week, driven by weak technicals, downside pressure from max pain, and poor option liquidity. 🧠 Model Summaries: 🔹 Grok/xAI • 📉 Bearish: Price below 10EMA, negative MACD, RSI near 41 • 🧊 Support: $115.20 | Resistance: $116.34 • ⚠️ Max Pain: $100 → downside bias • 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put (Jun 20) → PT: +50%, SL: –50% 🔹 Claude/Anthropic • 📉 Bearish intraday: below EMAs, negative MACD, RSI ~41 • ⚠️ Max pain at $100, light OI → downside risk • 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put @ ~$12.95 → Target 30–50%, SL: 25% 🔹 Llama/Meta • ⚖️ Mixed: Slight short-term bearish tilt, but warns against poor liquidity • 💸 Trade: No Trade due to spread/premium inefficiency 🔹 Gemini/Google • 📊 Daily trend bullish, but intraday showing exhaustion • ⚠️ Extreme spreads, no open interest • 💸 Trade: No Trade recommended 🔹 DeepSeek • 🚨 Strong Bearish: Breakdown of $115.20 w/ volume, negative MACD, RSI ~41 • ⚠️ Sentiment: Max pain at $100 + bid-side put action • 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put @ $12.70 → PT: $18.90 (+50%), SL: $8.82 (–30%) • 🔥 Confidence: 80% ✅ Market Consensus: 📉 Outlook: Bearish Bias – Short-term momentum is weak (price < EMAs, MACD negative) – RSI ~41 suggests downside room – Max pain at $100 = gravity effect – VIX falling = no panic relief for bulls – Key Level to Watch: Breakdown below $115 = confirmation 📌 Suggested Trade Setup 🎯 Symbol: NYSE:CRCL 🟢 Strike: 115 PUT 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-20 💵 Entry: $13.30 (ask) 🎯 Profit Target: $19.95 (+50%) 🛑 Stop Loss: $9.31 (–30%) 📈 Confidence: 75% ⏰ Entry Timing: At open ⚠️ Risk Watch: • ☠️ High premium & wide bid-ask spreads = slippage risk • ⛔ Low open interest = exit uncertainty • 🕒 Theta decay accelerates late in the week • 📈 Invalidated if price breaks above $116.34 • 📰 Unexpected crypto/news rallies = trend reversal risk 📊 TRADE JSON 💬 Are you trading this NYSE:CRCL bearish setup? Share your thoughts below. 📉📈 Follow for daily AI-powered trade breakdowns.
NYSE:CRCLShort
by quantsignals
3
USDT vs USDC The Last Rush- Everything is in the chart. - So my own deduction ( and only my own ) is : " Actually BTC not dipped so much " - They pushed it hard, many peoples turned their BTC and Altcoins to USDT/USDC for safety. - BTC is still not yet considered as a reserve like Gold in case of crises, peoples still scare and back really fast to the old paper money system when panic is around. - i will link following this post a PAXG/BTC Chart to show what happened when BTC dipped. - just look at indicators and you will clearly understand how much stables coins pushed high and Mooned/Marsed in the red " Overbought " Zone. - Results : TheKing is still around 20k. - that said, we can notice that USDC is gaining much more interests than USDT, just because USDC (Circle) is backed by cash and short-term U.S. government bonds as collateral. - after the "LUNA-UST" Crash peoples started to fear and they are right, so they turned their Stables to USDC. - in near future, USDC will gains more dominance on USDT and the next Dip could results in an Equal Dominance ( 3.80% - 3.20% ) i hope this post help to understand the situation, be H4ppy and St4y S4fe ! Happy Tr4Ding !
CRYPTOCAP:USDC.DShort
by thecryer
9
LOOPRING, Cuz if you like it, then ya shoulda put a RING on itLoopring chart update to reflect an unlikely move, but also possible, and also allows for me to add in the higher lines and show the full potential retracement scenario. In other words, buy the dip, but like .9 is around a 200% gain from here. Don't be greedy at that point, be greedy now and on the way up. I'm not sure what else to add. Follow the trends. Something is definitely going on with crypto and the alts. Good luck!!
CRYPTO:LRCUSDLong
by nicktussing77
2
Binance introduces USDC/USDT pair to help Circle CollapseAfter Luna`s stablecoin collapse, UST: Now Binance, the biggest crypto exchange, recently introduced the USDC/USDT pair, and now it`s users are able to transform their USDC into Tether. And let`s be honest, who wouldn`t to that amid this market uncertainty?! On Saturday, the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin experienced a drop in value below its dollar peg and reached a historical low. However, it later recuperated most of the losses after Circle, the company in charge of it, provided reassurance to investors that they would uphold the peg despite their connection to the struggling Silicon Valley Bank. Circle stated in a tweet on Friday that $3.3 billion of their $40 billion in USDC reserves are held in Silicon Valley Bank!! I think CZ listed this USDC/USDT pair on purpose, to generate a bank run out of its rival Circle, while they don`t have access to the full USDC liquidity. Watch out for those Top 5 investors in Circle as well: 1. Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs was one of the earliest investors in Circle, participating in a $50 million funding round for the company back in 2015. Since then, the investment bank has continued to support Circle, participating in subsequent funding rounds and helping to promote the adoption of Circle's products. 2. Digital Currency Group: Digital Currency Group is a venture capital firm focused on investing in companies in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space. The firm has invested in numerous companies in the industry, including Circle. Digital Currency Group participated in a $110 million funding round for Circle in 2018, and has continued to support the company since then. 3. Breyer Capital: Breyer Capital is a venture capital firm founded by Jim Breyer, a prominent investor in the technology industry. Breyer Capital has invested in a number of successful technology companies, including Facebook and Spotify. The firm participated in a $50 million funding round for Circle in 2015. 4. Accel: Accel is a global venture capital firm that has invested in numerous successful technology companies over the years, including Facebook, Dropbox, and Slack. Accel participated in a $60 million funding round for Circle in 2016. 5. Pantera Capital: Pantera Capital is a hedge fund focused on investing in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. The firm has invested in numerous companies in the industry, including Circle. Pantera Capital participated in a $50 million funding round for Circle in 2015, and has continued to support the company since then. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Short
by TopgOptions