CKBUSDT — Test Demand Zone: Reversal or Deeper Breakdown?📝 Full Analysis
The Nervos (CKB/USDT) pair is now trading right inside a critical demand zone at 0.0038 – 0.0046. This area has repeatedly acted as a last line of defense against deeper declines. At this stage, the market is at a decision point: will this zone trigger another accumulation bounce, or will it finally give way to a stronger bearish continuation?
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🔎 Price Structure & Pattern
1. Macro Trend
Since early 2025, CKB has remained in a major downtrend, printing consecutive lower highs and lower lows.
Every bullish attempt has been capped around key resistance clusters (yellow dashed lines).
2. Demand Zone (Yellow Box)
The 0.0038 – 0.0046 range has served as a strong base support.
Historically, buyers have stepped in whenever price dipped into this zone.
3. Key Resistance Levels (Upside Targets)
0.005224 → first minor resistance, key for early confirmation.
0.006118 → short-term target.
0.006797 → stronger psychological barrier.
0.008597 – 0.010109 → mid-term supply zone.
0.011369 – 0.018114 → long-term bullish targets if a major reversal takes place.
4. Key Support Levels (Downside Risks)
0.0038 → bottom of the demand zone.
0.002956 → previous major low.
A breakdown below this low could trigger a deeper bearish phase, exposing historical supports seen only on higher timeframes.
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🚀 Bullish Scenario
Scenario A: Initial Bounce
If price holds above 0.0040–0.0044 and forms bullish reversal patterns (engulfing, hammer, or long-tail pinbar) with high volume, buyers may attempt a rebound.
Scenario B: Breakout Confirmation
A daily close above 0.005224 would shift the short-term structure bullish, paving the way toward 0.006118 – 0.006797.
Scenario C: Extended Rally
With strong momentum and volume, mid-term targets at 0.008597 – 0.0101 could be tested, which will act as a major test for a long-term reversal.
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⚠️ Bearish Scenario
Scenario A: Breakdown of Demand
A daily close below 0.0038 invalidates the demand zone, signaling strong bearish continuation.
Scenario B: Downside Targets
The first target would be 0.002956 (previous low). A breakdown there could expose deeper historical supports below 0.0025.
Scenario C: Bull Trap / False Bounce
If price bounces off 0.0044 but fails to break above 0.005224 and reverses downward, it signals distribution and usually leads to an aggressive sell-off.
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📊 Trading Plan (Example, Not Financial Advice)
Aggressive Strategy (Buy the Dip):
Entry near 0.0044, stop-loss below 0.0038.
Risk: ~14%
Target 1: 0.005224 (+17%)
Target 2: 0.006118 (+37%)
RR Ratio to Target 2 ≈ 2.6
Conservative Strategy (Wait for Breakout):
Entry after a daily close >0.005224 with valid retest.
Lower risk of false signal.
Targets extend toward 0.0068 and 0.0085.
Invalidation: All bullish bias is canceled if daily closes <0.0038.
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🎯 Conclusion
At this stage, the 0.0038 – 0.0046 demand zone is the last stronghold for CKB.
If it holds, a rebound toward 0.0061–0.0068 is likely.
If it breaks, the market could quickly revisit 0.002956 or even lower.
In short, the price action in this zone will determine CKB’s mid-to-long term direction. Traders should closely watch volume and candlestick formations in the coming days to gauge whether buyers or sellers take control.
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