CL 2 MONTH SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLECL 2 MONTH REVERSAL SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE IS FORMED.
BUY: 64
TAKE PROFIT: 58
STOP LOSS:63
Cl!
USOIL: Correction is likely overI think we have decent odds for a bottom in oil here, after some talks about big players indulging in naked put selling surfaced, banks that -violating regulations- sold put options without any kind of coverage. It could have been that the market was being pushed down to margin call the traders behind these leveraged long positions in oil.
Natural gas has surged tremendously since oil topped, which likely is a short squeeze as well, as per @timwest's analysis, but interestingly, the last spike to the upside didn't correlate with a spike to the downside in oil...
Evidence indicates oil has bottomed, holding technical support from fundamental events (OPEC meeting key level price zone), since we haven't plotted daily highs below this zone yet and the decline has slowed down, forming a couple of inside days.
I bought into a few oil related names and oil futs today, my clients have received updates revealing these picks and the entry and sizing earlier today.
Best of luck for us all,
Ivan Labrie.
CL - Price is stretched. High potential for a reversalPrice is at the Warning Line (WL) and stretched out.
If price really can manage to turn from here, the target would be at least the L-MLH (Lower-Medianline-Parallel).
P!
US OIL (CL WTI) Long-Term Sell Well in Play.The bottom of the Daily channel has been tested with the touch into 66 and whilst this is likely just a wave i of 1 of 5 of C....the overall count is holding up well. Only a monthly close over 80 WTI would change the count.
The next challenge after this bounce in wave ii of 1, is to break the 66 and more importantly the 63 level. A break of 63 can open a veritable floodgate, though will let price and time dictate that as moves forward. The wave 5 does target under $20 so there's some potential in this black gold.
Short idea in Crude OilWe may bounce to 70.14 (61.8 of the last drop) or just drop from here, then back down to 61 (if we break 65.5) where we have some good fibs support, bounce and retest of 65.5 and then down breaking 61 and hitting 57.44 (50% retrace of a c leg up)... final bounce to 61.07 before a final drop to around 54 where we have a huge confluence of fibs: 61.8 of the c leg up, 38.2 of the big move up from Feb 2016 lows, and retest of the broken 23.6 from 2008 highs to 2016 lows.
CL did not break 0.38 long term fib yetCL did not break 0.38 long term fib today and failed.
Expecting $52 or $49 for real bounce to $58-60 then down to final bottom.
Battleground area reached. Grind = continuation For a long you'll need 1) Violent Flush or 2) 24-48hrs of angle smoothening and base formation. No trade on any other option.
2nd chance entries (CL)Deeper look @ breakout setups.
Blindly selling Lows or buying Highs is a recipe for disaster in the long run.
But the right kind of buildup can legitimize a breakout (BO) entry. When a breakout failure (BOF) does NOT immediately make a strong move in the other direction, you've got to ask yourself -- has the power balance really shifted?
If not, it could just be another example of pressure building in the original BO direction.
** Also, take a look at the breakout entry at B (no buildup) vs D (buildup). Especially relevant for a coiling market like crude oil.
CL - WTI CRUDE OIL (QUANTUM FLUX FIELDS) Short term fields for WTI.
Look for a bottom near $59.80 - $58.90
Crude Oil ( CL Daily ) Is it consolidation time ?Ok, president Trup was looking for lower prices and there you go right in time ;)
Bears are under control no doubt about it but todays price action ( I would like to see daily close ) suggest we may see consolidation phase between 61,50/62,00 a 64,30/64,80
We are within 'no mans land" here imho and only breakout/down might give Us further direction.
I do expect bulls will try to take out top of the channel but it might not be enough.
USOIl short and only short1.There is no buyers.
2.Strong day down trend.
3. Volum on report hour is hige but price can't move hige.
Enter 66.05
SL 66.70
TP 63.00
CL Futures approaching areas of support - possible shortPersonal thoughts on the possible direction of the Dec 18 CL contract.
Is oil trying to form a bottomDespite all the geopolitical noise and the big build in oil inventory in this week report, WTI has failed to print a new low.
It's true that WTI has broken the upward channel on the weekly time frame which started from sub 42$ back on Jun 2017 as in the picture below. ideally a retest of the channel should happen to confirm the long-term reversal but I believe bulls are trying to go against all odds.
In short, a 1H candle closing above 68 is the 1st warning, as it would violate the midterm down slop in my chart and suggest the bull trend continuation
On higher time frames
USOIL: Correction in a monthly trendI'd reccomend to stand aside, or, look to trade the extremes of the range if you are adept at chop trading. In my case, I'm more of a trend trader, but could look to trade $PBR on dips to support and exit when valuation is stretched again, after an overbought rally...Or stocks like $OXY, or refineries, like $MPC, $PBF, etc.
If you expect oil to make a big move, you will get disappointed and probably buy into fake breakouts multiple times, to then get tempted to sell or flip short on fake break downs...The green vertical line on chart is the estimated time required to start a big monthly trend again. Until then, expect a volatile sideways range.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Crude Oil For a long time I didn't look at oil, but I see that we are approaching a strong resistance line that begins in 2008. I also saw an rising wedge - a reversal patterns. We will see this fall until April 2019. I do not know with what it will be fundamentally connected, I do not much look at the fundamental factors. But the fact that we will fall I'm sure. We are also near a very strong resistance level of 61.8%
USOIL short opportunityShort term period began.
Strong day resistence 75,49
We have potential mirror level 72,89
Enter 71,37
Stop 72,37
TP 69,20
USOIL short oportunityStrong sells still on chart USOIL
Back test of 68,30, from this point we will see strong sell again
Entry 68,33
SL 69,33
TP 66,14
Clear Channel BacktestWorking with channels to look at things, you can see that sharp movement on friday afternoon backtested the mini bear channel we were in, still have a second bear channel to pass thru.
Long Nasdaq and long CrudeNasdaq strong channel support, needs to hold here.
Oil on strong support as well.
Note how both candle bodies are large and far outside lower bollinger band on the 4 hour.
This implies by consequence that DXY or USD is about to tank.
