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CMG

CMG Expectation of Reversion to Mean after Earnings DisappointmeI think CMG has accumulated way too much hype and expectation in the recent run-up, which has caused the stock to rise above a flagging technical indicator. I expect that Earnings coming out Tuesday after market close will either disappoint or will fail to sustain the bull run any further, and that CMG will "revert back to the mean" by forming a significant down-leg returning it to the steady-state zig-zag pattern of matching up-and-down trends.
NYSE:CMGShort
by ambientdrone
IN 2017, SHORT a $400 co. Again, Again and Again. Here's Why:"Chipotle" . Sounds pretty fancy, and that's what they were going for until they served up truckloads of what one should only have to fear when visiting deep in Mexico - and that is the dreaded E. Coli Burrito . When it comes to E. Coli - read and think "human feces". Their training and restaurant standards sucked - AND THEY HAD TWO CEO's, so a lack of definitive decisions and damage controls set the course and made all these situations worse and when the writing was on the wall? THEN one of them bailed... but you gotta understand what has cemented Chipotle's demise because CHEAPOTLE IS A BK. Read the following and you decide - then look at the charts... Hemorrhaging money after the turd burrito incidents which were so widespread they repeatedly made National news. THEY BORROW OVER A BILLION DOLLARS - READY FOR THIS - BUYING THEIR OWN STOCK BACK!! (ALL AT HIGHER LEVELS THAN THE $405 IT'S TRADING AT TODAY). THE MOST RECENT DEAL THEY MADE TO RAISE CASH IS THE LAST SCREW IN THE TOILET SEAT. Their largest shareholder gave them a final $700 million and forced them to use their last assets to secure said loan and stay afloat - as they put up the real estate the stores are sitting on to secure this last, private loan. Sounds like he may come out of this smelling pretty fresh. 1) CMG is still trading over $400 despite repeated downgrades. 2) Even with all the downward direction from the previous quarter, the company disappointed w lousy earnings and more downside surprises last month 3) They are literally keeping this together by talking about how customers are coming around again and they are confident that "new and innovative menu items", and "new server training to improve the customer experience" will take effect soon. Sounds like nothing more than what was in that bad batch of burritos. 4) This company needs a literal miracle to save it -- and when did you last discover a potential BK where the stock was trading at over $400? The catch is this buyback money - because it is being used to prop up the stock in the face of steady selling, and that means you cannot just dump a single commitment into a bunch of put options. You can trade around the isolated buys and they stick out prominently in the charts. I got lucky when it fell over 20 points in a day - so the potential for wicked volatility is amazing and I am hooked trading this stock via puts and calls. RECOMMENDATION -- FOR AGGRESSIVE TRADERS I recommend vertical bear spreads using BOTH puts and calls because of the wild premiums, and the sporadic buys. You can trade these as they come closer to expiration if you are near the money, and use the volatility to unload one leg of your spread if it makes sense at the time. AS YOU APPROACH EARNINGS, CONSIDER STRADDLING - near term. Earnings calls can produce some really crazy moves. The volatility number Marketwatch assigns is a 33. Bottom line? Despite all the buyback talk, the downtrend is intact and short of some unforeseen miracle - I do not see how this company can turn it around and survive. if anybody finds something they think I am missing here - please feel free to share..
NYSE:CMGShort
by trzcb8
$CMG Continues To Collapse, But Smart Investors Will Buy It HereShares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) continue to collapse as investors run for cover. Recent earnings did nothing to calm the fears of continued competition and the food sickness issues remain an overhang. Will average investors remain highly bearish, institutional investors are signaling a major level to buy at $335. This buy level comes from two major trend lines meeting at this level. When price hits it, it will put in a major bottom. I am a buyer here for sure. (I posted all of my trades live on VerifiedInvesting.com where they are verified by their 3rd party tracking system. No hiding from losers, no fake claims... just the facts!)
NYSE:CMG
by AnnabelleTrader
JACK/CMG: Great pair trade setupJACK offers a terrific short setup against a low volume resistance level, and two historical key earning levels. The spread with CMG makes it a great candidate for a pair trade, aiming to capture the profit from both the JACK short, and the CMG long. CMG has to rally to catch up to JACK, and JACK is overextended and will revert back to the mean. You can size each leg with 3 times the daily ATR as risk, or use a more technical stop loss derived from price action (I won't detail that in this publication though). We are in this trade, it's one of the trades I shared with my clients this week, among others. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
NASDAQ:JACKShort
by IvanLabrie
2
CMG: Potential trend reversalCMG has been accumulated in this zone for an extended period of time, and currently taking off from the uptrend mode. We're long with my signals group from the 405 mark. The stock had very negative sentiment due to a case of food poisoning, but currently, there is no reason for it not to rally from here, to catch up to the likes of JACK, for instance. After earnings come out, I'll monitor the formation of a new 'key earnings support' level, and decide wether to add to longs, or simply invalidate the setup and exit if we break down forcefully under 400. Our current stop loss is wide, to accomodate for volatility, and because this is a potential longer term position. I'll update the publication as we move forward. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
NYSE:CMGLong
by IvanLabrie
BUY CMG For $540/$600CMG has sold quite significantly based on technicals and all of the past news of Ecoli outbreaks. The damage has been done and we have now based. We have held a major trendline, key area of $400, with a weekly MACD crossover, and then finally we have completed a C wave at the .886 fib level hinting to a future gartley or bat pattern more than likely. Buying now at $446 with a stop at $431 would offer more than 6:1 risk/reward targeting $540 where we have major resistance. The 2nd target will be the $600 area.
NYSE:CMGLong
by adriel.arrasmith
CMG - Possible BullCMG pierced its first major resistance at 480 on 2/11, and has trended slightly up and sideways since then. Right now the stock appears to be finishing its second attempt to pass through a second major retracement and resistance level at approx. 530. Based on the RSI, the low volume on its last two positive gains, the recent failure to close above 530, and the fact that the stock needed three attempts to pierce resistance last time, I think its slightly more likely that the stock will stay in a channel between 500 and 530 before making one more successful push above resistance. Should the entire stock market surge or plummet unexpectedly on monday 3/7, I would expect cmg to follow suit over a few days either breaking above 530 or pushing down to its recent support at 500 or even 480. The MACD may be in the beginning stages of tightening (this is probably a premature call to make, but what the heck) - suggesting a large jump one way or the other is in the offing. When chipotle does sustain a break above 530, its got virtually zero resistance until around 575 - which presents an opportunity for those who are bearish in the longer term to try to pull in some profits (if it breaks within the next 1-3 weeks) prior to major economic news possibly shifting the market downward... Hesitantly long on this stock right now- though I would be waiting for better signals in the MACD histogram and a break one way or the other on strong volume
NYSE:CMG
by tapkcir
CMG: A shortI am bearish on CMG in a short term sense. Story/fundamental/technical wise Technical: The price has breached the 200 Weekly SMA and shows weak price action. I am expecting a drop but I am unsure where it stops. Fundamentals: CMG is over valued and based on classical valuation based on DCF, CMG's fair value is at $288. Which is a big drop. In terms of PE and PS it is undervalued as well. However, since it is a growth stocks and it assumed that earnings are used for growth, EV/EBITDA still shows decent valuation of 14 Story wise: Many would have known about the e coli scare and causes a drop on stores sales. Though as a food scientist this food scare is actually very small. However, due to fear (funny enough from wall street) the stock may see further decline. For short term players CMG is a good short but once there is a good time I will get long since it is a favourable food restaurant and also have big room for growth.
NYSE:CMGShort
by soldierducky
NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS -- GOOG, CMG, GILD, XOM, LINKDAnd earnings season slogs on ... . Next week there are bunch of biggies, but not all of them are worthwhile options setup plays, primarily due to liquidity. GOOG's option liquidity has never been the greatest, and CMG and LNKD have always been horrid, so right off the bat I would pass on those for options plays. GILD -- announces earnings on 2/2 (Tues) after market close. The options have fairly good liquidity, and its implied volatility rank is currently at 74. XOM -- announces earnings on 2/2 (Tues) before market open. Good liquidity, but the implied vol rank is not where I'd like to see it; it's currently 54, a contraction no doubt due to the bit of strength in oil we've seen the past week ... . Moreover, with the volatility still hanging in there in the broader market (VIX is still marginally over 20), I can afford to be picky and/or not play earnings at all, since my tendency is to slack off earnings plays when the VIX above 15 and go for plays in the broader index ETF's like SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA ... . Nevertheless, I'll look at a setup at least in GILD and keep an eye on XOM to see if volatility ramps up to where I'd like to see it (70+ in percentile rank).
NASDAQ:GOOG
by NaughtyPines