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Gold Is Not Overbought — This Is a Controlled ExpansionGOLD (XAUUSD) – SHORT ANALYSIS (1H) Technical Strong impulsive uptrend with shallow pullbacks → bullish strength. Price holds well above EMA34 & EMA89 → trend intact. Previous resistance (~4,430–4,450) flipped into key support. Current move = impulse → brief consolidation → continuation. Key Levels Support: 4,430 – 4,450 Upside continuation: 4,520 → 4,580+ Macro / News Drivers USD softness and easing real yields support gold. Ongoing rate-cut expectations keep dip-buying active. Persistent geopolitical risk & central bank demand underpin bullish bias. Bias Buy the pullbacks, not chase highs. As long as price holds above the new support, trend continuation remains the base case.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
Gold Is Not Overextended — This Is Wyckoff Markup in ProgressXAUUSD (H1) — MARKET ANALYSIS 1. Market Structure (Wyckoff Context) Gold has clearly completed a Wyckoff accumulation cycle and is now operating inside a confirmed Markup Phase. Phase A: Selling pressure was absorbed, volatility expanded, and downside momentum was halted. Phase B: Price transitioned into a broad consolidation, where supply was systematically absorbed while holding above key moving averages. ST in Phase B: The final liquidity test confirmed strong demand. Current State: Price has broken out decisively and is now in trend continuation, not distribution. This structure validates that the current rally is institutionally driven, not a retail spike. 2. Trend & Moving Averages Price is trading well above EMA34 and EMA89, both sloping upward. Pullbacks remain shallow and corrective → no structural damage. Each retracement forms higher lows, confirming trend strength. As long as price remains above the rising EMA cluster, trend control stays with buyers. 3. Price Action Behavior Strong impulsive legs followed by brief consolidations. No aggressive rejection candles at highs → buyers remain active. The current pause near 4,480–4,500 is bullish digestion, not exhaustion. This is classic trend continuation behavior, where the market pauses to absorb supply before the next expansion. 4. Key Levels Immediate Support: 4,350 – 4,380 (previous resistance turned support) Structural Support: 4,260 – 4,280 Upside Target Zone: 4,530 – 4,560 A controlled pullback into support followed by continuation would be the highest-probability scenario. 5. Forward Scenario (Preferred) Short-term consolidation or shallow pullback Higher low formation above 4,380 Continuation toward 4,530+, as projected on the chart Only a decisive breakdown below 4,260 would invalidate the bullish structure — currently low probability. Conclusion Gold is not peaking it is executing a textbook Wyckoff markup phase. The trend remains clean, momentum is controlled, and pullbacks are opportunities, not warnings.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RexTraderSignal
UKOIL H4 | Potential Bullish RiseMomentum: Bullish The price has bounced off the buy entry, which has been identified as a pullback support. Buy entry: 61.75 Pullback support Stop loss: 60.59 Pullback support Take profit: 63.86 Swing high resistance High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
TRADU:UKOILLong
by Tradu
Gold Hits a New All-Time HighHello everyone, let’s take a look at XAUUSD today. Gold continues its strong rally, trading around 4,480 USD, up more than 111 USD compared to the same time yesterday. Notably, this marks a new all-time high, decisively breaking above the previous peak. The sharp rise is driven by surging safe-haven demand at the start of a shortened trading week due to holidays, amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Gold gained further momentum after weekend reports that the United States is pursuing a third oil tanker near Venezuela. According to a U.S. official, President Trump has intensified oil sanctions against the government of Nicolás Maduro. Bloomberg reported that the tanker being pursued was operating under a false flag and is subject to a court seizure order, believed to be the Bella 1, a Panama-flagged vessel sanctioned by the U.S. These actions follow earlier incidents in which the U.S. military boarded the supertanker Centuries and previously the vessel Skipper. The blockade appears to be pressuring Venezuela’s oil storage capacity and could lead to production declines and broader civil instability. From a technical perspective, the next upside target for February gold futures bulls is a break above the strong resistance at 4,500 USD per ounce. Initial support is seen at 4,400 USD, followed by the overnight low at 4,365 USD. I remain bullish on gold—what’s your view?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trade_and_Chill-
Gold 1H – Liquidity Compression Sets Traps Around 4500–4420🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (23/12) 📈 Market Context Gold is trading inside a strong bullish structure after a clean impulsive expansion, currently hovering in a premium zone near recent highs. With price extended from the mean, the market is vulnerable to liquidity engineering rather than immediate continuation. CPI uncertainty and mixed USD flows continue to reduce directional conviction, favoring stop hunts at key psychological levels instead of clean breakouts. This environment often rewards patience and confirmation-based execution rather than anticipation. Smart Money is likely to manipulate both sides of the range — sweeping late buyers above 4500 or shaking out weak longs into the 4420 discount before the next meaningful expansion. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H) Current Phase: Bullish structure with signs of short-term distribution Key Idea: Expect liquidity interaction at 4500–4502 (premium) or 4420–4418 (discount) before displacement Structural Notes: • Higher-timeframe bullish BOS remains intact • Price is trading deep in premium, extended from equilibrium • Clear impulsive leg created unmitigated FVGs below current price • Momentum is slowing near highs → distribution risk • Liquidity is resting clearly above 4500 and below 4420 Liquidity Zones & Triggers: • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4500 – 4502 | SL 4510 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4420 – 4418 | SL 4410 🧠 Institutional Flow Expectation: Liquidity sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG / OB retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones) 🔴 SELL GOLD 4500 – 4502 | SL 4510 Rules: ✔ Sweep above psychological 4500 buy-side liquidity ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Clear downside BOS with impulsive displacement ✔ Entry via bearish FVG refill or refined supply OB Targets: 1. 4470 2. 4450 3. 4420 – extension if USD firms or risk-off accelerates 🟢 BUY GOLD 4420 – 4418 | SL 4410 Rules: ✔ Liquidity grab into discount and bullish structure support ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH confirms demand control ✔ Upside BOS with strong bullish displacement ✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest Targets: 1. 4450 2. 4475 3. 4500 – extension if USD weakens and bullish flow resumes ⚠️ Risk Notes • Extended bullish moves increase fake breakout probability • No entry without MSS + BOS confirmation • Expect volatility during U.S. session • Reduce risk around CPI-related or Fed-driven headlines 📍 Summary Gold remains structurally bullish, but trading at premium levels where conviction is fragile. Smart Money is likely to engineer liquidity before the next expansion: • A sweep above 4500 may fade toward 4450–4420, or • A liquidity grab near 4420 could reload bullish flow toward 4475–4500+ Let price reveal intent — Smart Money waits, retail rushes. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
7
XAUUSD Daily – Five-Wave Impulse Toward 4,530On the XAUUSD daily chart I’m tracking a potential five-wave advance within the existing uptrend. Wave (1)** marks the initial impulsive leg higher from trendline support Wave (2)** is the corrective pullback that holds above the origin of wave (1) and respects the rising trendline Wave (3)** extends beyond the wave (1) high, confirming continuation of the bullish structure and establishing a new swing high. * Price is now correcting as **wave (4)** back into the area of: * the rising trendline drawn from prior lows, and * the former consolidation / breakout zone around the previous highs. While price holds above the wave (4) low and the trendline, I’m anticipating a continuation leg to the upside as **wave (5)**. The projected wave (5) objective is around 4,527, where I have a confluence of measured extension and overhead resistance. A decisive daily close below the wave (4) low and trendline support would invalidate this wave count and delay the bullish scenario.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by johnconner966
2
XAUUSD – Technical Pullback, Uptrend Still IntactHello everyone, let’s go through a few interesting developments in the gold market this week with Domic. Gold is currently trading around 4,339 USD/oz after rebounding nearly 40 USD from the overnight low at 4,301. This is not a random bounce, but a familiar reaction when safe-haven flows return amid rising geopolitical risks. The current focus comes from tougher moves by the US toward Venezuela and the risk of expanded sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. Supply disruption concerns have pushed oil prices up nearly 2%, triggering a broader defensive sentiment across financial markets. In this environment, gold continues to be favored as a safe-haven asset. From a technical perspective on the H4 timeframe, XAUUSD’s uptrend remains firmly intact. Price continues to hold above both EMA34 and EMA89, with both moving averages clearly sloping upward. The pullback from the 4,350 area down toward 4,300 was clean and contained, without breaking the overall structure. This suggests a healthy pause to absorb profit-taking pressure rather than any signal of trend reversal. Wishing you all a smooth and successful trading day!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DomicChaina
39
GOLD: The Silent Takeover (Why Smart Money is Moving)The charts are speaking loud and clear. While the retail crowd is glued to the daily drama of Big Tech, Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) has entered a "pure trend" phase that is impossible to ignore. Today we are breaking down why the yellow metal is currently the heavy hitter in the room. 1️⃣ THE DOMINANCE: Gold vs. The Giants 🥊 We always look for Relative Strength—assets that are moving UP when the rest of the market is struggling or moving sideways. My latest scan shows TVC:GOLD is currently outperforming the market heavyweights. We are seeing Gold winning against: The Tech Titans: Gaining ground against NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , and $AMZN. The Benchmarks: Showing stronger momentum than both the AMEX:SPY (S&P 500) and NASDAQ:QQQ (Nasdaq). The Chip Leaders: While names like NASDAQ:NVDA are consolidating, the metals sector is expanding. This isn't just a hedge anymore; it's an alpha generator. 2️⃣ THE TECHNICAL SETUP 📈 (Weekly Chart View) The price action on TVC:GOLD is textbook bullish. The Breakout: We have smashed through the $4,300 level. Trend Alignment: The Moving Averages are fanned out perfectly. There is no resistance overhead—just "Blue Sky" potential. Momentum: The buying pressure is consistent. This isn't a spike; it's a ladder. 3️⃣ HOW TO TRADE THE RALLY? (The Watchlist) 📋 If you are looking to ride this wave, you need to know the vehicles available. Based on the current momentum, here are the tickers seeing the most action: 🔥 The "High Octane" (Leveraged Miners): AMEX:GDXU : MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X – For those who want maximum aggressive exposure. AMEX:JNUG : Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners 2X – Junior miners often move faster (in both directions) than the majors. AMEX:NUGT : Direxion Daily Gold Miners 2X – The standard for leveraged large-cap miner exposure. 🥈 The "Silver Sibling": AMEX:AGQ : ProShares Ultra Silver – Silver often lags Gold, then catches up violently. Keep this on your radar. 🛡️ The "Steady" Hand: AMEX:UGL : ProShares Ultra Gold – A 2x leveraged play on the metal spot price itself, avoiding miner-specific risks. 4️⃣ THE MACRO TAILWINDS 🌍 Why is this happening now? The Fear Trade: Global uncertainty is funneling liquidity back into hard assets. Fiat Hedges: With central banks worldwide continuing to print, Smart Money is treating Gold as the ultimate insurance policy. Rate Expectations: As we look toward future rate cuts, non-yielding assets like Gold become mathematically more attractive. 💡 THE VERDICT The trend is up, the momentum is real, and the relative strength is undeniable. Whether you are trading the spot price or the leveraged miners, the wind is at your back. ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT: Leveraged ETFs like AMEX:GDXU and AMEX:JNUG are volatile instruments designed strictly for intraday or short-term trading. CRITICAL WARNING: These are NOT for buy-and-hold strategies. Professional traders typically only use these for short swings and exit quickly. If you are inexperienced, DO NOT TOUCH THESE. Leverage magnifies losses significantly. Most beginners lose money here. Educate yourself fully before trading. 👇 THE QUESTION: Is this the run to $5,000? Or do you think Tech will reclaim the throne next week? Let me know in the comments! 🔥 Follow me AlgoatTV for more setups and professional analysis! Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk. Always do your own research.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Algoat_Alpha
The Christmas Silver Finally Breaks FreeFor decades, Silver has celebrated the holidays the same way 🎄 Strong rallies. Rising excitement. And a familiar ceiling. 🎄 Christmas 1980 Silver climbed like a Christmas tree, fast, vertical, and emotional. The star was reached at the $50 level. And just like that, the lights went out ✨ The market peaked and collapsed back into its long-term range. 🎄 Christmas 2010 Different era. Same story. Once again, Silver rallied into Christmas, lit up the chart, and tested the same $50 level. The tree was tall. The star was bright. But price could not hold above it. ⭐️Why the Star at $50 Always Mattered That star was not decorative . It was structural . The $50 level represented: • decades of trapped supply • historical excess from prior cycles • a psychological round number the market respected Every Christmas rally stopped at the same place. Until this one❗️ 💫Christmas 2025: The Star Breaks Free This time, Silver did not just touch the star. It broke above it and held. The Christmas tree is no longer capped. The star has turned into a shooting star ☄️ That is what price discovery looks like. When a market escapes a level it failed to conquer for decades, it stops trading inside a box and starts trading into open space. 🌌Discovery Mode: The Sky Is the Limit With the ceiling gone, Silver enters a new phase. The blue zone ahead is not a prediction . It is a projection . A natural expansion toward the next psychological magnet near 100. Not because history says so. But because history no longer applies the same way once a multi-decade barrier breaks. Above the star, there is only sky. 💡The Takeaway Silver spent decades decorating the same tree. This Christmas, it finally stepped outside the room 🎄➡️🌌 And once a market reaches open skies, it does not ask for permission. It explores . 🧐So here’s the real question: Where do you see Silver next Christmas?🎄 And where do you think it will be ten Christmases from now? ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~ Richard Nasr
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
52
$NEM – Leading Gold Stock Nearing a Key Inflection BreakoutNewmont ( NYSE:NEM ) is one of the leaders in the gold sector, and it’s now pushing right into the 91.50–92 breakout zone — a level that has acted as major resistance for months. This is a high-stakes inflection point. 🔹 The Setup: Price is tightening underneath 91.50–92, a clean horizontal resistance. NYSE:NEM has been showing relative strength, tracking gold’s move nearly tick-for-tick. Structure is clean: rising EMAs, bullish slope, and volume building underneath the trigger. 🔹 Why This Matters: AMEX:GLD itself looks fantastic — tightening, trending, and primed for continuation. When gold futures and GLD look this strong, leading miners like NYSE:NEM tend to run first. This is exactly the kind of setup where institutional money steps in. 🔹 My Trade Plan: 1️⃣ Entry: Add through a clean breakout over 92 with volume confirmation. 2️⃣ Stop: Under the 9 EMA — tight and mechanical. 3️⃣ Target: Trend continuation, first into prior pivot highs, then toward measured move extensions. Why I Like This Setup: Leader stock + leader sector = high probability. Technicals and macro backdrop (rates, inflation tailwinds, dollar softness) all point the same way. NYSE:NEM is often the “tell” for the entire gold complex — if this breaks, the whole sector could run.
NYSE:NEMLong
by kunal00
$GLD – Multiple Breakouts Converging: Flag + Trendline + Gap FilGold ( AMEX:GLD ) is triggering one of the cleanest breakout setups on the entire market right now. We're getting a flag breakout, a longer-term trendline break, and we’re pushing straight into a gap fill from October 20th — all at the same time. This is the kind of confluence I dream about. 🔹 The Setup (Perfect Storm): Flag breakout: Tight consolidation resolving to the upside. Major trendline break: Longer-term resistance finally giving way. Gap fill trigger: Entering the October 20th gap — once inside, price often accelerates. Rising EMAs underneath = structural momentum. This is big-time swing trade stuff. 🔹 Why This Chart Matters: The entire precious metals complex is heating up. Silver already broke out — gold often follows and trends harder. Macro tailwinds (inflation whispers, deficits, dollar wobble) are fueling demand. 🔹 How I’m Trading It (Progressive Exposure): 1️⃣ Starter Position: Bought $400 GLD calls last week. 2️⃣ Futures Position: Long AMEX:MGC for premarket flexibility. 3️⃣ Pyramiding Plan: As the setup improves — more confirmation, more levels break — I add to the trade. I don’t go full-size at entry. I scale in as the trade proves itself. This is the exact progressive exposure method I’ve used for 15+ years. 🔹 Risk: Stop beneath the 9 EMA on the daily for my futures position. GLD calls are defined-risk by nature. This is the real deal — the type of breakout where gold can trend for weeks.
AMEX:GLDLong
by kunal00
1
Silver - Strength Speaks Loudest!!🏆Silver has been one of the strongest performers across almost the entire market, consistently outperforming most assets and leading the momentum higher. 📈Structurally, price remains firmly bullish , respecting the rising blue channel with clean impulsive moves followed by shallow corrections. This behavior is exactly what strong trends look like. 🏹As long as this rising blue channel holds , the plan remains straightforward: I’ll be looking for trend-following longs on every correction, not chasing highs, but waiting patiently for pullbacks into structure. Only a clear and decisive break below the channel would invalidate this bullish thesis. Until then, Silver remains a buy-the-dip market, favoring continuation rather than reversal. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
TICKMILL:XAGUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
5
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 4360 and a gap below at 4327, as support. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 4360 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4360 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 4388 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4388 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 4417 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4417 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 4449 BEARISH TARGETS 4327 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4327 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 4299 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4299 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 4270 4236 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4236 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 4212 4183 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
47
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for December 23Gold Technical Analysis: Daily Support Level: 4382 4-Hour Support Level: 4430 1-Hour Support Level: 4470 Gold's strong upward movement has once again demonstrated its strength to the market, reinforcing expectations of further short-term gains. Moving averages are in a bullish alignment, Bollinger Bands are trending upwards, and the MACD/KDJ indicators show a strong bullish pattern. The price is supported by the upper Bollinger Band, further fueling expectations of a bull market in 2026. Support levels to watch in the NY market are 4470/4460. Given the strong upward momentum, selling is not advisable at this time. The 1-hour chart shows the price supported by the MA10, indicating strong bullish sentiment. Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, and the price is in an upward channel. The short-term strategy is to wait for a pullback before buying at support levels. Selling is not currently considered. Trading Plan: BUY: 4475~4470 BUY: 4430~4420
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
1
Corn CFD Outlook: Institutional Breakout Setup Explained🌽 CORN VS DOLLAR: BULLISH MOMENTUM CONFIRMED | Swing/Day Trade Opportunity 📊 MARKET OVERVIEW Asset: CORN Futures (ZCH26) / USD Current Price: $446.40 (Dec 23, 2025) Market Status: ✅ Simple Moving Average Breakout Confirmed Trade Type: Swing / Day Trade Signal: 🟢 BULLISH SETUP ACTIVE 🎯 TRADE PLAN: "THIEF STRATEGY" Entry Strategy - Layered Limit Orders (Multiple Entry Points) The "Thief Strategy" uses multiple limit buy orders to average into positions at different price levels: Suggested Layer Entries: 🔹 Layer 1: $444 (Current support zone) 🔹 Layer 2: $446 (Mid-range entry) 🔹 Layer 3: $448 (Breakout confirmation) Note: You can increase/decrease layers based on your capital allocation and risk tolerance Alternative: ✅ ANY PRICE LEVEL ENTRY - Current market allows flexible entry as breakout is confirmed 🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT Stop Loss (SL): Thief OG's SL: $442 ⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Dear Traders (Thief OG's) - I am NOT recommending you set only my SL. This is YOUR trade, adjust your stop loss based on YOUR strategy, risk tolerance, and account size. Trade at your own risk. 💰 PROFIT TARGETS Primary Target: Target Price: $458 Rationale: Simple Moving Average acts as a strong resistance level (police barricade). Potential overbought conditions + trap formations suggest TAKE PROFITS at this level. ⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Dear Traders (Thief OG's) - I am NOT recommending you set only my TP. Take profits at YOUR own discretion based on your trading plan. Make money, secure money at YOUR OWN RISK. 📈 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH Agricultural Complex: ZW (Wheat) - Current: $514.38 (+1.06%) ↗️ Grains correlation - watch for sector strength ZS (Soybeans) - Current: $1,053.55 ↘️ Inverse correlation - weakness supports corn demand ZO (Oats) - Monitor for broader grain sentiment Dollar Index: DXY (US Dollar Index) - Current: 97.93 ↘️ KEY INVERSE CORRELATION: Weaker dollar = bullish for commodities Dollar at October 2025 lows supports corn rally Energy: CL (Crude Oil) - Watch ethanol production correlation 🌍 FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS (LATEST) ✅ BULLISH CATALYSTS: 1. Supply-Demand Dynamics (USDA WASDE Dec 2025): 📉 US corn ending stocks reduced to 2.029 billion bushels (-125 million bushels) 📈 Exports raised to 3.2 billion bushels (RECORD HIGH) ✅ Strong export pace exceeding 2024 records 2. Export Demand Surge: US export sales reaching record levels to Mexico, Colombia and other buyers Outstanding US sales and inspections pointing to faster shipments Recent sales: 186,000 MT to unknown destinations 3. Ethanol Production at ALL-TIME HIGHS: US ethanol output rose to record weekly levels Increased feedstock demand tightening available supplies 4. Dollar Weakness: DXY fell to 97.93 on December 23, 2025, down 9.49% over the last 12 months Weaker USD makes US corn more competitive globally 5. Supply Chain Issues: Ukrainian shipments running below a year ago because of harvest and logistical delays Prompt physical supplies tightened outside the US 6. Brazilian Factors: Brazilian sellers withholding inventory focusing on planting Creates near-term supply gaps favoring US exports ⚠️ RISK FACTORS TO MONITOR: 1. Federal Reserve Policy: Markets pricing in two quarter-point rate reductions in 2026 Affects dollar direction and commodity flows 2. China Purchase Commitments: Monitor China's soybean purchases (affects corn indirectly) Trade policy uncertainty with new administration 3. South American Weather: Brazilian corn planting 97% complete Watch for production updates (Jan 2026 WASDE) 4. Technical Resistance: Price approaching June 2025 highs around $450 Strong resistance zone requires momentum confirmation 📊 UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS TO WATCH: USDA WASDE Report - January 12, 2026 ⭐ Weekly Export Sales - Every Thursday CFTC Commitment of Traders - Weekly Friday releases Fed Policy Decisions - Monitor rate cut timing Brazilian Crop Progress - Ongoing through Q1 2026 💡 TRADING STRATEGY SUMMARY: ✅ Setup Type: Bullish SMA breakout with fundamental support ✅ Entry Method: Layered limit orders OR current market price ✅ Risk/Reward: Favorable with tight stop vs. extended target ✅ Timeframe: Swing trade (multi-day) or day trade (intraday moves) ✅ Confirmation: Export data + dollar weakness + supply tightening ⚠️ FINAL DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for educational purposes only. I am NOT providing financial advice or recommendations. Every trader must: ✅ Conduct their own due diligence ✅ Use proper position sizing for their account ✅ Set stop losses based on their risk tolerance ✅ Take profits according to their trading plan ✅ TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK Past performance does not guarantee future results. 🔔 ENGAGEMENT: 👍 LIKE if you found this analysis helpful! 💬 COMMENT your thoughts and trade setups below 📊 FOLLOW for more commodity market analysis Let's make profitable trades together, Thief OG's! 🚀
FPMARKETS:CORN
by The-Thief
GOLD Is Very Bearish! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 4,459.75. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 4,363.61. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by SignalProvider
6
USOIL SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT Hello, Friends! USOIL pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 4H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 56.52 area. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
TVC:USOILShort
by EliteTradingSignals
4
XAUUSDXAUUSD remains in a strong uptrend. Today, the price reached a new high of $4997 Due to excessive buying pressure, I believe that if the price fails to break through $4510, a short-term correction is possible. Consider selling in the red zone 🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you. This content is not financial advice. Always conduct your own financial due diligence. >>GooD Luck 😊 ❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Serana2324
7
XAU/USD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of (XAUUSD) – Bullish Reversal Setup from Demand Zone 1. Key Zone: Strong Demand / Rejection Area Price has reacted multiple times inside the blue demand zone (around 4040–4035). This zone aligns with Fibonacci levels (0.705–0.79), strengthening the bullish probability. Each touch shows buyers stepping in (long wicks + strong rejections). 2. Falling Wedge Breakout A falling wedge pattern has been broken to the upside. Price retested the wedge but dropped again to retest deeper inside the demand zone. A bullish continuation is expected after one more dip into the zone (green arrow). 3. EMAs: Bullish Confluence EMA 50 and EMA 200 are close, tightening and suggesting a potential trend shift. Price is expected to bounce off the demand zone and climb above EMAs. 4. Projected Move After tapping the demand zone, price is expected to: Break above recent structure highs Build bullish momentum toward the target point: 4,143.06 SMC Trading point 5. Overall Idea This setup indicates a bullish continuation forming after a correction. The blue zone is the high-probability buy zone, and the projected path suggests a move toward 4143 after confirmation. --- please support boost 🚀 this analysis
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
14
Silver Market Once in a Lifetime Breakout: 120/140 USD PT📌 Base case unchanged: I’m still targeting $125–$150 within 12–24 months. The next leg of the bull run should accelerate after the all-time-high (~$49–$50) breaks and sticks. Spot is circling the mid-$40s (recent highs ~$46–$47), so the setup is in place. 💎✨ 🎯 Bottom line Silver’s structural deficit + gold leadership + policy-driven cost inflation meet a fresh technical regime. The ATH break is the ignition; $65–$75 is the first destination, and the $125–$150 12–24M target stays live if real yields drift down and PV/electronics demand stays elevated despite thrifting. Manage the whipsaws; respect $38 as the cycle guardrail. BUY/HOLD bias remains warranted. 🚀💎🔥 ________________________________________ 📊 Technical Outlook (2-week candles) • Structure: Multi-year Cup & Handle from 2011 → 2020 base → 2024/25 handle. The $40 neckline break is done; a weekly/monthly close > $49.50 flips the market into price discovery. • Levels that matter: — Resistance: $49–$50 (ATH), then $65–$75 (measured move / vacuum), interim supply near $57–$60. — Support: $44.5–$45 (breakout retest), $41–$42 (former cap), deeper $38 and $34 (trend break if lost). • Momentum breadth: Higher highs on price with constructive consolidation while gold prints records → classic GSR mean-reversion tailwind. 📈⚡ ________________________________________ 🧭 12–24 Month Path Outlook Base (55%) – Break & run: Close above $50 triggers trend systems and discretionary chase → extension to $65–$75 by mid-’26, stair-step into $100–$125 by late ’26/early ’27; overshoot to $150 on macro squeeze. 🚀 Alt up (15%) – Blow-off: Parabolic sprint to $85–$100 immediately post-break, sharp retrace to high-$60s, then grind to $125–$150. Pullback (25%) – Fakeout & reload: Failure at $49–$50, mean reversion to $41–$42 or even $38, rebuild positioning; timeline slips ~1–2 quarters. Bear tail (5%) – Macro shock: USD spike + real-yield jump + PV air-pocket; lose $34 → cycle delay (target deferred, not canceled). ⚠️ ________________________________________ 🚦 Catalyst Scorecard — Visible & Hidden Drivers (0–10) 1. Fed path & real yields — 9.0/10 (Bullish) The Fed cut 25 bps on Sept 17 (now 4.00–4.25%) and signaled scope for more easing this year; several officials reinforced that bias. Lower real yields are the single strongest tailwind for non-yielding metals. 🏦 2. U.S. Dollar trend — 6.0/10 (Net-Bullish for silver) DXY has been firm the last two weeks, a minor headwind; but with the Fed easing bias, dollar upswings look tactical, not structural. Any USD rollover clears the runway. 💵 3. Gold leadership & GSR mean-reversion — 8.5/10 (Bullish) Gold at/near record highs ~$3.75–$3.80k keeps silver in tow. GSR ~80–84 is elevated vs. bull-market medians → skew favors silver outperformance on a gold grind. 🪙⚖️ 4. Structural deficit — 8.5/10 (Bullish) Fourth straight sizable deficit; ~678 Moz cumulative drawdown since 2021. 2025 still projected to run a ~115–120 Moz deficit despite softer bar/coin demand. 📉📦 5. Industrial demand (PV/Electronics) — 7.5/10 (Bullish with nuance) PV/electrical demand at record highs; PV up again in 2024 (+3% y/y) and installations broadened across 38 “>1GW” countries. Offsetting force: silver thrifting (0BB, copper plating) → another 10–12% loading cut likely in 2025. Net: total ounces still robust as capacity growth outpaces thrifting… for now. ☀️🔋 6. ETP/ETF flows — 7.5/10 (Bullish) Global silver ETPs flipped to net inflows in 2024 (+62 Moz) and kept adding into 2025. SLV shows ~15,362 tonnes in trust as of Sept 26—a sizable base of “sticky” investment metal. 📊📈 7. LBMA & COMEX stocks / liquidity premia — 7.0/10 (Bullish) LBMA silver in London: 24,646 t (Aug) — up m/m but well below pre-2020 peaks; COMEX registered ~196 Moz. Tight-ish float + delivery frictions can widen location premia during spikes. 🏭📦 8. Tariff & logistics regime — 7.0/10 (Bullish via inflation/frictions) U.S. 50% copper tariff (Aug 1) lifts domestic copper premia and can indirectly affect by-product silver flows and refining economics. Recent gold bar tariff confusion also showed how policy can snarl bullion logistics; LBMA welcomed clarifications, and noted silver discussions continue—headline risk persists. 🚢⚙️ 9. Base-metal supply shocks (by-product linkage) — 6.5/10 (Bullish) Grasberg disruptions and Peru protest-related shutdowns point to emerging fragility in copper output; since much silver comes as a by-product, copper hiccups can tighten silver supply at the margin. ⛏️🌍 10. Mexico policy/permitting — 6.0/10 (Bullish later, volatile now) World’s top silver producer remains mired in regulatory overhang; exploration still depressed post-2023 reforms. Any genuine permitting thaw would be years from ounces—near-term effect is restraint. 🇲🇽📜 11. India retail/investment demand — 6.5/10 (Bullish) Silver hitting record rupee highs; local ETFs up ~50%+ YTD; retail investment +7% y/y in H1’25. Seasonal tailwinds into festivals. 🎉🇮🇳 12. China macro & manufacturing — 5.5/10 (Mixed) Electronics appetite is steady, PV leadership intact; property stress caps jewelry, but investment demand remains opportunistic. Net: supportive on dips, headline-sensitive. 🏗️🇨🇳 13. Systematic/CTA & options positioning — 6.0/10 (Volatility amplifier) Trend models chased the $40 break; dealer gamma turns negative above $45–$47 at times, inviting intraday whipsaws. 🎯📉📈 14. Geopolitics (Ukraine/Mideast/Taiwan) — 5.5/10 (Event-Bullish) Safe-haven jolts remain episodic; they matter more after the ATH triggers chase behavior. 🌍🔥 ________________________________________ 🧨 Hidden (under-traded) catalysts • GSR compression trade: Once $50 breaks, programmatic rebalancing from gold to silver can accelerate relative gains. (GSR in the 60s pulls silver deeper into triple digits fast.) ⚖️💥 • By-product elasticity: Copper policy & outages (tariffs, mine incidents) can reduce silver by-product feed even as PV demand hums—this is not fully priced. 🔧⛏️ • Vault/warehouse microstructure: LBMA/COMEX stock changes vs. delivery notices can suddenly widen time/location spreads → sparks short-term basis fireworks that lift spot. 📦⏳ ________________________________________ 🛠️ Positioning & Execution • Core: BUY/HOLD core metal exposure; add on $44–$45 retests; reload heavier on $41–$42. • Breakout tactics: On a weekly close > $50, ride call spreads (e.g., $60/$90 9–15M out on SI or SLV) or risk-reversals (sell $35 puts to fund $80–$100 calls). • Risk controls: Invalidate momentum if weekly close < $38; cut leverage. ________________________________________ 🧩 Fundamental NOTES • Spot context: XAG/USD ~$46, 52-week range ~$28–$46.7. ATH ~$49–$50 (1980/2011). • Deficit math: Metals Focus/Silver Institute show fourth straight deficit; 2025 deficit ~117 Moz amid record industrial demand and only modest supply growth. • Supply: 2024 mined = 819.7 Moz; 2025e ≈ 835.0 Moz (+1.9% y/y). Primary mine share keeps slipping; AISC fell in 2024 (by-product credits). • PV nuance: Silver loadings ↓ ~10–12% in 2025e, but global PV installations broadened; total silver ounces into PV remain lofty even as intensity falls. • Vaults/ETFs: LBMA London holdings 24,646 t (Aug). SLV metal in trust 15,361.84 t (Sep 26). COMEX registered ~196 Moz. • Macro winds: Fed cut and may cut more in 2025 → lower real yields + easier USD path. • Policy kicker: U.S. copper tariffs live; gold bar tariffs clarified after August confusion; silver remains under policy watch—any mis-classification can jolt premia. ________________________________________
TVC:SILVERLong
by ProjectSyndicate
63
WTI | H4 — Sellers Defending the StructureWTI is currently trading into a well-defined descending dynamic resistance on the H4 timeframe, maintaining a bearish structure with consistent lower highs. This area has repeatedly capped price, making it a key decision zone for the next directional move. From a technical perspective, the broader trend remains bearish, with sellers defending rallies into the resistance band. Recent upside moves appear corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting limited buyer conviction so far. A clear rejection from this resistance would favor continuation toward recent lows. On the other hand, a strong marubozu close above the resistance would signal acceptance and a potential shift in control to buyers. Fundamentally, oil remains sensitive to OPEC supply guidance, geopolitical risks, and USD strength. Without a supportive fundamental catalyst, upside breakouts may struggle to sustain, increasing the importance of confirmation at this level. Takeaway: Bearish continuation remains favored on rejection from resistance. A bullish bias only comes into play if price breaks and accepts above resistance with strong momentum — otherwise, patience is key. #WTI #Oil #PriceAction #MarketStructure #TradingStrategy
TVC:USOIL
by uncleHamid