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Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 4417.This week, I expect the upward movement to continue and the medium-term “12345” impulse to complete. I expect to see a small correction, after which I expect to see at least the 4417 area reached at the end of wave “5” or in the extension of wave “3”. This week, after the completion of this movement, I plan to figure out our next steps. It may be that a major correction awaits us in the near future, but we will talk about that later. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
51
XAUUSDXAUUSD remains in a strong uptrend. Today, the price reached a new high of $4409. Due to excessive buying pressure, I believe that if the price fails to break through $4425, a short-term correction is possible. Consider selling in the red zone, with a target of 4322, 4124 🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you. >>GooD Luck 😊 ❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Serana2324
USOIL - Bullish Reversal Brewing?Hello Traders!👋 As we close out 2025 and head into the New Year, I'm turning bullish on USOIL (WTI Crude Oil). After a tough year of downside pressure, I see clear signs of a potential trend reversal—here's why: Technical Overview (Daily/Weekly Timeframe): Price has firmly bounced from the critical $55 support zone—a multi-year low and psychological floor that's held multiple times this year. We're seeing fresh buying momentum: Higher lows forming, potential bullish divergence on RSI (oversold conditions easing), and volume picking up on the rebound. Historically, crude often shifts direction around year-end/New Year—I've observed this pattern over many years, with bounces turning into larger moves as new trends emerge. Key resistance to watch: $58–60 (recent highs and 50% Fib retracement). A clean break above could confirm bullish continuation. Why Bullish Now? (My View): The world is stabilizing: Geopolitical tensions easing (progress on peace talks), which could boost global growth and oil demand in 2026 without extreme risk premiums. Recent U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan/Russian tankers adding short-term supply tightness, fueling the rebound from lows. Oversupply fears are priced in at these depressed levels—any positive demand surprise or inventory draws could spark a sharp squeeze higher. Holding this $55 base feels like a classic bottom, with new buyers stepping in aggressively. Trade Idea (Bullish Scenario): Long bias as long as price holds above $55.00. Potential targets: $58.30 (near-term, 61.8% Fib), $59.20–$60.00 (mid-term), $60.42+ if breaks higher. Stop Loss: Below $54.90 (recent low) for risk control. Risk/Reward looks favorable here for swings into the New Year. Is this the start of a real reversal, or just a temporary bounce in the bear trend? Bulls charging or still cautious on the glut? I will be happy if you will share me your thoughts. Always make your research!!! This is not financial advice!!!
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by elmakacho
GOLD in 2026! Where will it go after a year of rapid growth?After a virtually unrivaled 2025, the OANDA:XAUUSD market enters 2026 with a bigger question than any specific price: will the uptrend continue, or has the market gone too far? The short answer is: gold is unlikely to repeat the 2025 breakout, but it is also not yet in a deep downturn. 2026 will most likely be a period of significant volatility at high prices, where the uptrend persists, but the pace and rhythm have changed noticeably. 2025: A Year of Price Increases That Are Not a Chance The more than 60% surge in gold prices in 2025, along with over 50 new record highs and a historical high of $4,381/ounce, is not a short-term speculative frenzy. It is the result of three major converging flows. Firstly, geopolitical and trade instability. The US-Mexico-Canada trade tensions quickly moved beyond speculation, culminating in concrete tariffs and retaliatory measures. In this context, defensive capital flows returned to the gold market, a familiar instinct of the global financial system. Secondly, there's a reversal in expectations regarding US monetary policy. Inflation data cooling faster than expected has forced the Federal Reserve to acknowledge the risk of slower growth, although it's not in a hurry to cut interest rates. The mere opening of the "door to easing" is enough to alter the pricing structure of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset that directly benefits from low interest rates. Thirdly, there is the systematic weakening of the US dollar. When the base currency depreciates, gold doesn't need new narratives to rise; it simply reflects the adjustment in the exchange rate. When gold surpasses the $3,000 mark in Q2 2025, the market will no longer be "waiting," but will enter a trend-following state. Summer 2025: Sideways Movement Is Not the End The prolonged sideways movement in July and August led many investors to believe the bull cycle was complete. But in retrospect, it was merely a necessary accumulation phase within a larger trend. The turning point came in September, when the U.S. Department of Labor revised its employment data, revealing a significantly weaker labor market than initially reported. While this was only a revision of past figures, the message to the market was clear: the foundations of U.S. growth are not as solid as they appear. The Fed was forced to soften its direction, and money once again flowed into gold. In September alone, the price rose nearly 12%. By October, the temporary US government shutdown due to the budget impasse became the final catalyst, pushing gold to historical highs. Looking ahead to 2026: The trend remains, but the pace will be different. Currently, gold is at a price point where any further increase would require stronger momentum than before. After a more than 60% increase last year, the likelihood of repeating a similar upward cycle is very low. However, it is important that the pillars supporting gold prices have not yet collapsed. Global monetary policy, especially that of the US, remains inclined towards easing to counter recession risks. The dollar lacks a solid foundation for a long-term recovery. And equally important, central banks continue to strategically buy gold, creating "bottom-forming" demand during periods of correction. In this context, the most plausible scenario for 2026 is that gold prices will rise more slowly and fluctuate more widely, but the overall trend will remain upward. The market will see more technical corrections as investors are ready to take profits at high prices and restructure their portfolios towards other non-dollar assets. Overall Fundamental Perspective 2026 may not be a year of the steep surges seen in 2025. However, it's not yet the time to turn away from the gold trend. The market is entering a rebalancing phase at high price levels, where volatility has become the norm, and policy and geopolitics remain the two variables determining the final direction. Gold is no longer "cheap," but it hasn't lost its central role in the global defense picture. Technical analysis and suggestions OANDA:XAUUSD The daily gold chart shows that the medium-term uptrend remains clearly dominant, despite the price having just undergone a correction after approaching the historical peak of $4,380/ounce. The technical structure has not been broken. The price remains above all the important moving averages, especially the short- and medium-term MAs, a typical sign of a market in a "consolidation" phase rather than a distribution phase. The price continues to move within the ascending channel, with each subsequent low higher than the previous one, indicating that underlying buying pressure remains stable. Fibonacci retracement levels indicate that the recent correction stopped precisely at the 0.382–0.236 area, a "standard" technical support zone for a strong uptrend. The absence of a deep drop to 0.5 or lower suggests that selling pressure was primarily short-term profit-taking, insufficient to reverse the trend. The RSI indicator has exited the overbought state, cooled down to the upper neutral zone, and is now moving upwards along with the RSI-based MA. This often precedes continued upward movements in strong trends, reflecting momentum rebalancing rather than structural weakness. In terms of targets, once the price has absorbed the correction zone around $4,300–$4,250, a new uptrend cycle will have the necessary technical conditions to form. The next targets for the trend are: • $4,411–$4,537 (extended Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 zone), • Further at $4,715, and in the scenario of a strong increase in safe-haven flows, the $4,900–$4,950 zone becomes a reasonable technical target. The risk of a short-term downward correction mainly stems from the price failing to decisively break above the $4,380 level, or from unexpected macroeconomic news causing yields and the US dollar to rebound. In that case, gold could be pulled back to retest the $4,245–$4,216 support zone; only if this zone is breached by strong selling pressure will the bullish structure be seriously questioned. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4419 - 4417⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4423 →Take Profit 1 4411 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4405 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4355 - 4357⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4351 →Take Profit 1 4363 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4369
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Gold Is Not Trending. It’s Deciding.GOLD (XAUUSD) – 1H TECHNICAL & MACRO ANALYSIS Market Structure (Technical) - Gold remains in a clear short-term uptrend, still trading above both EMA 34 and EMA 89, confirming bullish structure has not been broken. - Price is currently consolidating below Target 1 (~4348) after a sharp impulsive move, which is typical bullish digestion, not distribution. - The recent pullback respected the weak support zone around 4313–4320, aligning closely with EMA 89 → this indicates buyers are still defending dips. - As long as price holds above the strong support zone (~4270–4280), the broader bullish structure remains intact. Key Levels Resistance / Target 1: ~4348 Target 2 (Old ATH): ~4380 Weak Support: ~4313–4320 Strong Support: ~4270–4280 Scenarios Primary (Bullish continuation – higher probability): Sideways consolidation → higher low → break above 4348 → extension toward 4380 (old ATH) and potential new ATH. Alternative (Deeper pullback, still bullish): Loss of weak support → retrace into strong support → liquidity grab → continuation higher. CONCLUSION Gold is not rejecting resistance it is absorbing liquidity below it. This price behavior, combined with a supportive macro backdrop, strongly favors a continuation move toward the old ATH and beyond, rather than a trend reversal.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
Gold Isn’t Stalling — It’s Loading Liquidity for BreakoutGOLD (XAUUSD) — DETAILED TECHNICAL & MACRO ANALYSIS 1. Market Structure - Gold remains in a clear bullish market structure on the H1–H4 timeframes. The impulsive leg that pushed price toward $4,380 confirms strong buyer dominance. - Instead of rejecting sharply from the high, price has transitioned into a sideways-to-slightly-up consolidation, which is a classic continuation pattern, not distribution. - Higher lows continue to form inside the range, showing controlled pullbacks rather than panic selling. This behavior indicates acceptance near highs, which is a key characteristic of strong trends. 2. Key Price Zones & Liquidity Behavior Resistance Zone: $4,350 – $4,380 This zone is being tested multiple times without aggressive rejection. Each pullback from resistance is becoming shallower, signaling supply absorption. Sellers are active, but they are not in control. Support Zone: $4,250 – $4,270 Buyers consistently defend this zone. No clean breakdown or high-volume sell-through has occurred. This confirms that downside moves are corrective, not trend-reversing. Liquidity Insight Liquidity is building above the range highs. Compression inside the box suggests the market is preparing for expansion, not exhaustion. 3. Price Action Interpretation - Gold is forming a bullish consolidation below previous highs, often seen before breakouts. - Volatility contraction inside the range implies energy buildup. - Chasing price inside the range is low probability. - Edge only appears on confirmation : a clean acceptance above resistance or a sweep-and-hold from support. 4. Macro Environment (Why Gold Is Supported) Federal Reserve Policy The Fed remains restrictive, but markets increasingly price rate cuts in 2025, not further hikes. Real rates are no longer accelerating higher. The “higher-for-longer” narrative is fully priced, reducing downside pressure on gold. U.S. Dollar & Yields The U.S. Dollar is struggling to extend its upside momentum. Real yields have stabilized, removing a major headwind for gold. This macro balance allows gold to hold elevated levels instead of correcting deeply. Risk & Capital Flows Risk assets (equities, crypto) remain volatile and rotational. Capital is flowing toward defensive and hedging assets. Central bank gold demand remains structurally strong. Seasonality Year-end and early Q1 historically favor gold due to: Portfolio rebalancing Lower liquidity amplifying moves Institutional positioning for the new year 5. Scenario Outlook Primary Scenario (High Probability) Continued consolidation above support Gradual pressure against resistance Clean breakout → new ATH above $4,380 Alternative Scenario Another rejection from resistance Range extension without breakdown Structure remains bullish as long as $4,250 holds Only a strong, high-volume breakdown below support would invalidate the bullish thesis — currently not supported by either price action or macro data. 6. Final Conclusion Gold is not topping — it is digesting gains. Technically: bullish structure + acceptance near highs Macro-wise: supportive environment, not restrictive Behavior: accumulation and compression, not distribution This is a macro-aligned continuation setup, where patience is rewarded and impulsive entries are punished.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Gold_Dominator
GOLD ANALYSIS 12/22/20251. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: a) Economic: • USD: After U.S. PMI data came in above 50, the USD saw a short-term technical rebound. However, this is not a new uptrend, but mainly a post-news reaction. • U.S. equities: Narrow range trading – wait-and-see sentiment, no strong risk-on capital flow yet. • FED: Still in an easing cycle – interest rate cuts expected in the medium term, providing a supportive foundation for gold. • Trump administration: No new shock policies → markets remain temporarily stable. • Gold ETFs (SPDR): No strong buying or selling → indicates big players are not distributing, leaning toward accumulation. b) Politics: • No major geopolitical tensions, but underlying risks remain, continuing to support gold. c) Market sentiment: • Risk-neutral → slightly risk-off • Short-term traders taking profits, large capital waiting for deeper pullbacks to buy => Fundamental conclusion: Gold is in a short-term correction – the medium- and long-term trend remains BUY on dips, not chasing sells. 2. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Main structure: • Trend: Clear uptrend • Price is trading within an ascending channel • Pullbacks to the Fibo 0.5 – 0.618 zone are attractive buy areas Indicators: • RSI: Neutral range → not overbought • MA: Price holds above fast MAs → trend remains strong => Technical conclusion: This is a technical pullback within an uptrend, not a reversal. RESISTANCE: 4,351 – 4,362 – 4,380 SUPPORT: 4,330 – 4,309 – 4,288 3. PREVIOUS MARKET SESSION (19/12/25): • Price bounced strongly from the 4309 zone • Retested the 4351 supply but failed to break decisively and dropped back to test 4335 • Signs of short-term profit taking • No large distribution candles appeared => Nature: The market flushed liquidity, not an exit from positions. 4. TODAY’S STRATEGY (22/12/25): 🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4419 – 4417 SL: 4423 TP1: 4411 TP2: 4405 🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4355 – 4357 SL: 4351 TP1: 4363 TP2: 4369
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Signals_100pips
Gold 1H – CPI Ambiguity Sets Liquidity Traps Near 4400🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (22/12) 📈 Market Context Gold is trading near the upper boundary of a well-defined bullish channel as markets react to renewed uncertainty surrounding U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s policy outlook. Recent CPI-related commentary has reignited debate over whether inflation is cooling fast enough to justify near-term easing, keeping USD flows unstable and risk sentiment mixed. This macro backdrop favors liquidity engineering over clean continuation, with Smart Money likely targeting both premium and discount extremes to induce breakout traders before the next directional expansion. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H) Current Phase: Bullish structure approaching premium exhaustion Key Idea: Expect liquidity interaction at 4400–4402 (premium) or 4340–4338 (discount) before meaningful displacement Structural Notes: • Higher-timeframe bullish BOS remains valid • Price is pressing into buy-side liquidity near channel highs • Clear impulsive leg up created an unmitigated FVG above 4370 • Rising structure shows signs of short-term distribution, not confirmed reversal • Liquidity rests clearly above 4400 and below 4340 Liquidity Zones & Triggers: • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4400 – 4402 | SL 4410 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4340 – 4338 | SL 4330 🧠 Institutional Flow Expectation: Liquidity sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG / OB retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones) 🔴 SELL GOLD 4400 – 4402 | SL 4410 Rules: ✔ Sweep above psychological 4400 buy-side liquidity ✔ Bearish MSS / CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Clear downside BOS with impulsive displacement ✔ Entry via bearish FVG refill or refined supply OB Targets: 1. 4370 2. 4350 3. 4340 – extension if USD strengthens on CPI reassessment 🟢 BUY GOLD 4340 – 4338 | SL 4330 Rules: ✔ Liquidity grab into discount and channel support ✔ Bullish MSS / CHoCH confirms demand control ✔ Upside BOS with strong bullish displacement ✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest Targets: 1. 4360 2. 4385 3. 4400 – extension if USD weakens amid CPI doubt ⚠️ Risk Notes • CPI-driven uncertainty increases fake breakouts • No entry without MSS + BOS confirmation • Expect volatility during U.S. session • Reduce risk around unexpected Fed or inflation headlines 📍 Summary Gold is trading at a decisive premium within a bullish structure, but CPI ambiguity keeps conviction fragile. Smart Money is likely to engineer liquidity at the extremes before committing: • A sweep above 4400 may fade toward 4350–4340, or • A liquidity grab near 4340 could reload bullish flow toward 4385–4400+ Let structure confirm — Smart Money reacts, retail anticipates. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
1
Gold Is Not at a Top — It’s Compressing Below HistoryGold continues to trade in a strong bullish structure on H4, with a clear sequence of higher lows confirming that buyers remain firmly in control. After the impulsive leg up, price is now consolidating directly below the previous highest high around 4,380 a textbook bullish consolidation rather than a distribution phase. This range-bound movement shows that selling pressure is being absorbed, not expanded, as pullbacks remain shallow and demand consistently steps in. As long as price holds above the higher-low base of the consolidation, the broader bias stays bullish, and this sideways action should be viewed as a buildup of pressure. A clean acceptance above the 4,380 resistance zone would likely trigger continuation toward a new ATH, while failure to break simply extends the consolidation, not invalidates the trend. This is a wait for expansion environment patience is the trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Gold_Dominator
2
This Is Not a Breakout Yet — Gold Is Quietly Loading the MoveOANDA:XAUUSD 1H Technical Analysis Market Structure Gold is no longer trending impulsively. Price has transitioned into a clear accumulation → sideways expansion phase right below the old ATH. What matters here is behavior, not direction. - Strong impulsive leg already completed - Price failed to immediately break higher - Market shifted into range compression instead of reversal This confirms buyers are still in control, but they are absorbing supply rather than chasing price. Key Zones on the Chart Upper Range / Pre-ATH Supply: ~4,350 – 4,380 - Sideway Zone (Value Area): Mid-range where price is rotating - Accumulation Base: ~4,260 – 4,280 (range low / demand pocket) Price continues to respect the range boundaries: - Highs are capped → liquidity building above - Lows are defended → no breakdown structure This is balanced price action, not weakness. Price Action Logic Inside the box: - Overlapping candles - Repeated up/down rotations - No follow-through selling This is time-based correction, not price-based correction. Markets often do this before expanding through major highs. Scenarios Ahead Primary (Higher Probability): - Continued oscillation inside the range - Liquidity builds on both sides - Expansion → break above old ATH Alternate: - Sweep lower range once more - Immediate reclaim - Same upside continuation A clean break below the accumulation base would be the only structure failure — and that has not happened. Bottom Line Gold is not stalling. It is compressing energy inside value. When this range resolves, it will not be subtle.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Matthew_TradeRFX
Correction Is Not a Reversal — Gold Is Reloading 1. Market Structure Overview - Gold is still trading within a medium-term bullish structure, but price has entered a short-term corrective phase after failing to hold above the upper resistance zone. - Strong rejection occurred at the POC / resistance area 4.35x – 4.38x, confirming active profit-taking. The current price action is developing a classic ABC correction: - Wave A: Completed with a sharp pullback. - Wave B: Ongoing technical rebound. Importantly, price remains above the major moving averages, meaning the primary uptrend is still intact. This correction is technical in nature, not a trend reversal. 2. Market Context & Liquidity Behavior Sellers are active near the highs, but downside momentum remains controlled. The market is likely seeking liquidity clearance before deciding the next impulsive move. The 4.26x – 4.20x zone stands out as a key re-accumulation area where buyers may step back in. 3. Today’s Price Scenarios 🔹 Primary Scenario (High Probability) Price continues its corrective leg toward 4.26x – 4.20x. This zone acts as a decision point: Holding above it → supports re-accumulation and trend continuation. Strong breakdown → opens room for a deeper short-term correction. 🔹 Alternative Scenario (Lower Probability) Failure to reclaim strength after the correction may extend downside pressure. Confirmation only occurs if support is decisively broken with volume. 4. Intraday Trading Setups — Re-Accumulation Focus 📌 SETUP 1 – Intraday Sell (Correction Timing) XAUUSD SELL ZONE: 4369 – 4372 Take Profit: 4366 – 4361 Stop Loss: 4376 📌 SETUP 2 – Intraday Buy (Re-Accumulation Zone) XAUUSD BUY ZONE: 4262 – 4265 Take Profit: 4268 – 4273 Stop Loss: 4258 ⚠️ Always apply strict risk management to protect capital. 5. Summary & Trading Guidance Main Trend: Bullish Short-Term State: Correction → Re-accumulation Bias: Wait for price to reach key zones, avoid chasing highs 👉 Today’s session is a balancing phase. The market’s reaction at the support zone will define whether gold resumes its uptrend or extends the correction. Patience and discipline remain the optimal strategy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RexTraderSignal
Wheat in Focus: How Ukraine, China, and Weather could move WheatWheat is one of the world’s most widely traded agricultural commodities, essential for food and animal feed. Prices are heavily influenced by global supply and demand, with major producers including the U.S., Russia, the EU, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine. Weather conditions, geopolitical events, and large importer activity can all create significant volatility in the market. Let’s break it down. 1. What Drives Wheat Prices Supply Factors Wheat supply is heavily shaped by the major exporting regions—Russia, the EU, Australia, the U.S., Canada, and Ukraine. Weather is the biggest swing factor: drought, heat stress, floods, or winterkill can quickly tighten global supply and spark rallies. Crop progress reports and yield updates show how each production cycle is developing, while geopolitics—especially in the Black Sea—can disrupt export flows overnight. Input costs like fertilizer and fuel influence how much farmers plant, and currency moves affect which exporters are most competitive. Together, these factors determine how much wheat the world can actually deliver to the market. To summarize: Major producers: Russia, EU, Australia, U.S., Canada, Ukraine Weather: drought, heat stress, winterkill, floods Crop progress: planting pace, crop conditions, yield expectations Geopolitics: Black Sea tensions, export bans, sanctions, port disruptions Input costs: fertilizer, fuel, logistics Currency impact: strong USD usually weighs on wheat prices Demand Factors Demand for wheat is driven by global food consumption, animal feed needs, and the buying behavior of major importers such as China, Egypt, and Indonesia. Economic conditions matter because stronger economies consume more food and feed. Price relationships with other grains like corn and rice can shift demand toward or away from wheat. Changes in trade flows—such as China sourcing more from the U.S. instead of the Black Sea—can quickly redirect global shipments. These factors help traders understand whether demand is strengthening or weakening relative to available supply. To summarize: Global consumption (food + feed use) Large importer buying: China, Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey Economic conditions in EM (Emerging Markets) Substitution vs. corn/rice Global trade flow shifts 2. Key Reports Traders Actually Need to Track Instead of monitoring everything, wheat traders focus on the handful of reports that truly move price: WASDE (Monthly) – The most important report in wheat trading. This is where global production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks get revised. Wheat can rip or dump instantly on WASDE changes. If you track only one thing, track WASDE. Weekly USDA Export Sales – This shows an immediate view of demand. Watch for: Big purchases from China, Egypt, Indonesia Surprising cancellations Shifts from Black Sea to U.S. buying It’s one of the fastest ways to spot demand changes ahead of price. Crop Progress (Weekly, in season) – Important only during planting, growing and harvesting periods. The report tracks: % planted % harvested Crop condition (% good/excellent) Poor Conditions generally = bullish. Strong Conditions generally = bearish Geopolitical headlines – In our opinion wheat is the most geopolitically sensitive commodity. Anything related to the following can cause immediate moves.: Corridor shutdowns Port attacks Export bans Ceasefire rumors This is the intraday volatility driver that news traders capitalize on. Weather in key regions (Daily / weekly) – Focus on the key regions of the U.S. Plains, Black Sea, Australia. Drought in these regions generally = bullish. Good moisture generally = bearish. Use simple sources like NOAA maps or short ag weather summaries (weather reports that impact agriculture). CFTC COT (Weekly) – This is for context and is not used for trading signals. It shows whether funds are heavily long or short. Only the extremes matter: Funds very short → short-covering rallies possible Funds very long → risk of liquidation selloffs This report is more relevant for swing and position traders. 3. Recent Market Drivers Peace-proposal speculation: Reports of a U.S. proposal involving Ukraine ceding Donbas triggered a fast selloff as markets priced in the possibility of Ukrainian exports normalizing. Zelenskiy has stated he won’t accept territorial concessions, so a confirmed ceasefire remains unlikely unless U.S./EU pressure increases. Market reaction: Wheat dumped immediately on the headline, but the move didn’t sustain — traders want confirmation, not speculation. China buying U.S. wheat: Ongoing chatter that China is shifting some purchases to the U.S. (no official tonnage yet). This is a supportive demand story worth monitoring. 4. Chart Analysis: Recent Price Action and What to expect The developing monthly VPOC for November 2025 has shifted higher, marking a potential change in market sentiment after three consecutive months of declining VPOCs. In addition, the developing VA for November appears unlikely to overlap with the previous month’s VA. This suggests that market conditions are changing and that the recent downward trend may be ending. Market based out around 520 and rallied from mid-October to early November, breaking 552’4 (previous seller defense) and reclaiming back above 559’6 daily level. This rally was likely supported by the potential U.S.–China trade deal and initial Chinese wheat purchases in early November. However, sellers stepped in at 570 (July’s VAL + monthly 1SD high), offering price back below 559’6. Market is now rotating inside a developing range between 559’6 and the 540–535’6 zone (October settlement/LVN) to establish value. Bearish Scenario A break and acceptance below 540 opens the door toward: 520 (October’s VPOC + monthly 0.5SD low) 510 (October low) 504’6 (monthly 1SD low) Catalyst: Any news of confirmed progress toward a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire → removal of war-premium → likely downside. Bullish Scenario If market accepts back above 559’6, sets up a move toward: 570 (July VAL / M 1SD high) — expect sellers here. 585’6 (July VPOC) if 570 is cleared Catalyst: Headline reversal or escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Neutral Scenario Without fresh catalysts, expect continued range rotation between 559’6 and 540, with the market establishing value in this zone. 5. Conclusion Wheat remains a headline-driven and weather-sensitive market, where geopolitical developments, major buyer activity, and crop conditions can quickly shift sentiment. Traders should monitor key reports and technical levels while staying aware of global supply and demand dynamics. With multiple factors in play, range rotations and sudden spikes or drops are likely until a clear catalyst drives the market decisively. What are your thoughts? Are you watching the headlines, weather, or technical levels for clues? Please share your insights below and give this post a boost so the rest of the community can join the conversation. Glossary Index for technical terms used: VAH (Value Area High) VAL (Value Area Low) VPOC (Volume Point of Control) SD (Standard Deviation) LVN (Low Value Node) VA (Value Area)
CBOT:ZW1!
by EdgeClear
Gold Holds Firm at Elevated LevelsGold is trading today around 4,340 USD, almost unchanged from the previous session, indicating that the market remains stable at high levels after the recent strong rally. Notably, during the prior U.S. session, gold surged to 4,367 USD, marking a new all-time high, before undergoing a mild pullback toward the end of the session. This highlights that buying interest remains highly active whenever the market is supported by favorable catalysts. The main driver behind this move came from weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data. The December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index plunged to -10.2, far below forecasts, reigniting concerns about economic health and immediately triggering safe-haven flows into gold. The release of these disappointing manufacturing figures alongside the November CPI and weekly jobless claims created a convergence effect, pushing gold into positive territory and driving prices to new record highs. Although some forward-looking indicators continue to suggest growth expectations over the next six months, persistent price pressures and signs of economic slowdown are reinforcing expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy. This continues to provide a solid foundation for gold’s medium-term bullish trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trade_and_Chill-
1
Natural Gas Stock Forecast | Oil | Dollar | Silver | GoldCatch the latest commodities trading insights! This week's market analysis includes a look at both sides of the coin for oil, gold and silver. Plus, get some helpful technical analysis and trading tips to guide your decisions. AMEX:UNG Natural Gas stock Bulls NatGas Support & Resistance Guide NYMEX:CL1! USO Oil Stock price Forecast DXY US dollar Stock analysis COMEX:GC1! Gold XAUUSD Stock price Forecast COMEX:SI1! Silver XAGUSD stock analysis
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ArcadiaTrading
3
Silvers Worth More than Oil! CAUTION!The last time silver traded above both oil and gold was during the Hunt Brothers’ attempt to corner the silver market (arguably the original anti-government Crypto Bros speculators with Lambos, if you think about it. LOL!) What makes the current setup different is that this move is occurring without a concentrated speculative corner. Silver is outperforming both oil and gold amid systemic monetary stress, driven by broad market forces rather than manipulation. A currency crisis is therefore one of my leading candidates for what could ultimately blindside markets. It is not the only risk I am monitoring — there are other developing factors and potential catalysts — but this signal stands out and deserves close attention in my view. Consider what’s happening simultaneously: The JPY is collapsing in value The BOJ is raising rates The Japanese 10-year yield has surged to ~2.0% The carry trade is being margin-squeezed Gold is exploding relative to oil Oil is collapsing Silver is now outperforming both oil and gold Trump Starting A Trade war with the world The DXY is down ~10% since Trump took office. China has cut U.S. Treasury holdings roughly in half Central banks are buying gold aggressively These are not isolated events. They are anomalies clustering at the same time, signaling the same problem. CUERRENCY! People may not be talking about this with their mouths on social media with silly memes, but they are speaking very loudly & clearly with their MONEY! It’s usually worth listening to what they are saying. The problem is that 99.9% of people don't know what to listen to in a crowded stadium when everyone is yelling and cheering. That’s why I post observations like this, even if they seem boring or unexciting. I could be more popular by “just giving you the trade,” but context matters. This information is often more important than people realize — especially before it shows up in price. ;) Here are some of my other posts that relate: I maintain my position my GTFO and STFO! CAUTION IS IN ORDER! THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by RealMacro
17
Bearish drop?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) could make a short-term pullback to the pivot and could reverse to the swing low support. Pivot: 60.30 1st Support: 54.80 1st Resistance: 65.75 Dow Jones (US30) is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback support and could rise to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Pivot: 47,063.30 1st Support: 45,135.60 1st Resistance: 50,049.13 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by IC Markets
Bullish continuation on Gold?The is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a swing high resistance. Pivot: 4,244.05 1st Support: 4,140.68 1st Resistance: 4,379.38 Dow Jones (US30) is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback support and could rise to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Pivot: 47,063.30 1st Support: 45,135.60 1st Resistance: 50,049.13 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by IC Markets
1
GOLD FREE SIGNAL|SHORT| ✅XAUUSD reacts precisely from a premium ICT supply zone, delivering a bearish rejection after tapping buy-side liquidity. Displacement confirms bearish intent, with market structure shifting lower. Expect continuation toward resting sell-side liquidity below the range low. ———————————— Entry: 4,341.60$ Stop Loss: 4,357.00$ Take Profit: 4,317.96$ Time Frame: 2H ———————————— SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProSignalsFx
1
JPY Devaluing At The Same Rate As TRY Against $Since April, the JPY has been falling at the same rate as the TRY against the $. This is Alarming, should the trend continue. This makes this even more interesting, is that the DXY since Trump took office, has dropped almost by the same amount! What is important to also understand is that the JPY is 145 of the DXY. As such, if the JPY were to strengthen (all else being equal) the DXY would be down even more! How would that help the "AFFORDABILITY HOAX" if the $ keeps devaluing, requiring more $s to buy the same amount of goods & services? Now, does it make a bit more sense why Gold & Silver have soared this year? I hate to keep harping on JPY, but it is important to all traders/investors in all asset classes, not just FX. THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
Short
by RealMacro
5
SILVER Bullish Bias! Buy! Hello,Traders! SILVER delivers a clean displacement through a key horizontal range, confirming bullish BOS and smart money continuation. The breakout holds above prior supply-turned-support, suggesting acceptance and strength, with upside liquidity resting at higher premium levels. Time Frame 2H. Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDLong
by TopTradingSignals
1
ASTER/USDT (4H) Chart Pattern...ASTER/USDT (4H) Chart Pattern– Targets (Based on the Chart) The chart shows a strong downtrend with price trading below the descending trendline and a bearish continuation move. 📉 Bearish Targets: Target 1: 0.60 Target 2: 0.45 Main Target: 0.25 – 0.20 (marked target zone) 🛑 Resistance / Invalidation: Resistance: 0.82 – 0.85 A 4H close above 0.85 would weaken the bearish setup. 📌 Summary: As long as price stays below the descending trendline, further downside toward 0.25–0.20 is expected. If my want, I can also provide entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels or a bullish alternative scenario.
Short
by XAUxBTC_Pro
6
SOL/USDT – 2H chart patternSOL/USDT – 2H chart pattern (Based on the Chart) The chart shows a descending channel with a bearish breakdown. Based on that structure: 📉 Bearish Targets: Target 1: 120.00 Target 2: 115.00 Main Target: 108.50 – 104.00 (marked target zone) 🛑 Resistance / Invalidation: Resistance: 128.00 – 130.00 A strong close above 130 would weaken the bearish setup. 📌 Summary: As long as price stays below the descending channel resistance, continuation to 108–104 is likely. If my want, I can also give: Exact entry / SL / TP Scalp or swing setup Bullish alternative scenario
Short
by XAUxBTC_Pro
1