Why Gold Respects Supply and Demand ZonesA Complete Price Action Guide for XAUUSD Traders
Gold (XAUUSD) is one of the most technically respected markets in the financial world. Unlike many instruments that behave erratically, gold consistently reacts to supply and demand zones, making it ideal for price action and institutional trading strategies.
What Are Supply and Demand Zones?
Supply and demand zones are areas on the chart where large orders from institutions (banks, hedge funds, central banks) are placed.
Supply Zone: Area where strong selling pressure enters the market
Demand Zone: Area where aggressive buying absorbs selling pressure
These zones represent imbalances between buyers and sellers, not random lines.
Commodities
Gold - Preparing the final blow off top!💰Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) will rally a final +20%:
🔎Analysis summary:
Just in January alone, Gold is up another +25% so far. Looking at this very bullish parabolic rally, Gold remains super strong and is still not done with the bullrun. Until Gold retests the ultimate resistance trendline, it can easily rally another +20% from the current levels.
📝Levels to watch:
$6,000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Silver spot price versus the miners...The lag being experienced by the silver miners seems to be caused by market skepticism as to whether the meteoric rise in the price of silver is sustainable.
The miners will be reporting their 4Q25 earnings soon, which should be impressive given the rise in the spot price of silver for that quarter.
Oil – Roadmap to Summer – 01/28/2026Good afternoon, friends!
I decided to dig into oil to complete the picture for my ruble forecast. I'm sleepy, so keeping it short today (will add more details later on my page).
Key Points
Storage Levels (Commercial + Strategic Reserves)
China
Reserves as of January 31, 2026: ≈1,095 million barrels (31 days of domestic demand).
Growth from November to January: +26 million barrels. The main buildup occurred in December when imports hit a record 54.6 million tonnes (+17% YoY).
Current utilization of commercial tanker fleets off the coast (Shandong) exceeds 80% of design capacity — no signs of storage shortage.
India
Operating SPR capacity (Visakhapatnam, Mangalore, Padur): 39.1 million barrels.
Fill level as of January 31, 2026: ~33 million barrels (≈84%). Over three months, an additional 3 million barrels were purchased using budget funds allocated in February 2025.
Commercial inventories at refineries remain at a comfortable level of ≈26 days of processing; growth is logistically constrained (Jamnagar port loaded >95%).
Demand Takeaway
China has built up reserves, but levels remain below the administrative target (35 days). This creates a window for sustained high imports, especially at discounts. India is near its SPR ceiling; further purchases depend on storage expansion (Chambala-2 project, 2027).
Reference: Top 10 Oil Importers (2024)
China — 11.1 mb/d India — 5.2 mb/d USA — 5.0 mb/d (imports heavy crude for blending) Japan — 2.8 mb/d South Korea — 2.7 mb/d Germany — 1.9 mb/d Netherlands — 1.8 mb/d (Rotterdam — EU's "gateway") Italy — 1.5 mb/d Spain — 1.3 mb/d Singapore — 1.2 mb/d
OPEC+ Decisions and Market Impact (Updated January 2026)
November 30, 2025 (35th Ministerial Meeting)
Decision: Extend voluntary group cuts of 2.2 mb/d through Q1 2026. Effective period: January 1 – March 31, 2026.
March 3, 2026 (Expected)
In-person meeting in Riyadh. Will consider gradual unwinding of voluntary cuts starting Q2 2026, contingent on "sustained demand growth and declining OECD commercial inventories."
Why Specifically Until March 31, 2026?
Seasonal demand: Q1 is traditionally weaker for consumption; extending cuts helps prevent inventory buildup.
Market uncertainty: January–February brought EU recession risks and Suez Canal logistics disruptions.
Tengiz incident: The 0.45 mb/d reduction from Kazakhstan further tightens the balance, prompting OPEC+ to "play it safe" and maintain discipline.
Price Expectations
Confident bullish bias amid OPEC production cuts leading up to the next meeting.
Key level and first target: 73.30 USD
Scenario A: Cuts Unwound on March 3
Price returns to 59 USD Followed by a correction to 64 USD (China restocks at a discount) Further decline to 52 USD possible — I lean toward this scenario
Scenario B: Cuts Extended for Another Quarter
Sideways movement: 72–76 USD Potential spike to 80–81 USD Then retracement to 68.50 USD
Why I Consider Scenario B Unlikely
The weighted-average discount on Russian barrels vs. Brent is ≈12 USD/barrel; during congestion or rising freight rates, it temporarily widens to 14–15 USD.
Meaningful damage to the Russian economy only occurs when oil revenues fall below 70 USD.
Sanctions are designed to keep oil prices within a range that is painful for Russia. Therefore, prices will absolutely not be allowed above 82 USD.
In other words, to maintain sanctions effectiveness during the conflict, the logical approach is to cap prices at 74 USD.
Gold Holding Uptrend – Bullish Continuation SetupGold is in a clear short-term uptrend on the 30-min timeframe, riding an ascending trendline with higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently testing a resistance zone around the recent highs.
A small pullback toward the trendline/support area is anticipated, which could act as a bullish continuation zone if buyers step back in.
If support holds, the projected move targets the upper supply/target zone marked above, suggesting continuation of the bullish structure. A clean break and hold above resistance would further confirm upside momentum, while a drop below the trendline would weaken the setup.
This is technical analysis for educational purposes, not financial advice.
High‑Beta Silver Exposure – USAS Swing StructureAmericas Gold and Silver (USAS) operates silver‑focused assets like the Galena Complex in Idaho and the Cosalá operation in Mexico, with additional growth from the Crescent silver mine restart planned around mid‑2026. I’m treating this as a higher‑risk, higher‑reward silver stock, marking out major development milestones, expansion news, and deep weekly demand zones to capture explosive moves during strong silver cycles.
SILVER Bullish Bias! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER strong bullish structure remains intact as price respects rising trendline support. Current pullback looks corrective, with smart money likely targeting higher liquidity above recent highs. Time Frame 1H.
Buy!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
$OIH: The Gushing Cup (and handle) Oil Services 4-Year Breakout!🏗️🏗️🏗️🏗️🏗️
🐂 Fundamental Bull Thesis
Profitability is no longer just tied to spot oil prices, but to a structural deficit in global energy infrastructure.
Geopolitical Tailwinds: Supply constraints driven by geopolitical tensions and renewed U.S. intervention in regions like Venezuela are pushing demand for domestic service providers.
CapEx Supercycle: Large-cap producers are moving beyond "maintenance mode" and into high-spec drilling deployment to ensure long-term energy security.
Operational Efficiency: Top holdings like SLB and Baker Hughes are reporting strong earnings driven by new technology-integrated drilling solutions, allowing for higher margins even if oil prices stabilize.
Liquidity & Flows: Quantitative tightening ended in late 2025, and with the Fed shifting toward easing in early 2026, risk assets like high-beta energy services are seeing massive institutional inflows (+$213M for OIH in the last month).
#SLB Schlumberger N.V. 21.9%. Global leader in digital oilfield and subsea tech.
#BKR Baker Hughes Co. 12.4%. Focusing on LNG and low-carbon tech.
#HAL Halliburton Co. 7.9%. Dominates the North American pressure pumping market.
#FTI TechnipFMC PLC. 5.3%. Major player in offshore/subsea architecture.
#TS Tenaris S.A. 4.9%. Critical supplier of steel pipe (OCTG) for drilling.
#WFRD Weatherford International. 4.4%. Specialized in well construction and artificial lift.
#NE Noble Corp. PLC. 4.3%. High-spec offshore drilling contractor.
#LBRT Liberty Energy Inc. 3.3%. Leader in next-gen fracking and completion services.
SILVER BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 11,406.8
Target Level: 10,517.5
Stop Loss: 12,001.1
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Gold Technical Outlook - Gold Buy Setup Targeting 5400Gold remains bullish after holding above the rising support line with a clear BOS confirming continuation strength. Price has broken and held above the 5275 showing strong buyer control. As long as gold stays above the 5110-5050 demand zone the upside structure remains valid with room for further extension toward high 5400+. only a decisive H4 close below 5110-5050 zone would signal deeper correction.
Fundamentally gold is supported by expectations of easier monetary policy later in 2026. Ongoing geopolitical tensions steady central bank gold buying and uncertainty around global growth continue to boost safe haven demand.
Any short term USD strength may cause pullbacks but overall fundamentals still favor gold on dips rather than aggressive selling.
Trade Plan
Buy Zone: 5200 – 5150
Buy Trigger: Strong bullish close above 5275 with continuation
Targets: 5275 → 5402 → 5455
Invalidation: H4 close below rising support
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
NZD/USD | Higher! (READ THE CAPTION)As you can see in the daily chart of NZDUSD, it has been going up for some time now and sweeping the first Buyside Liquidity on its way, and I expect it to go for the 2 buyside liquidity ahead of it, as well as the bearish breaker there. It is currently being traded at 0.60320.
Targets for the time being are: 0.60400, 0.60500, 0.60600, 0.60700 and 0.60800.
Gold Is Not Reversing — This Is the Setup Traders Wait ForHello, I’m Amelia.
Looking closely at the H1 chart, gold is continuing to trade inside a well-defined ascending channel, and the overall structure remains clearly bullish. Price has just completed a strong impulsive leg to the upside and is now trading close to the upper half of the channel. This kind of price behavior tells me one thing very clearly: the trend is still strong, but momentum has temporarily run ahead of its short-term support. In these conditions, the market rarely moves in a straight line — a controlled pullback is often needed to rebuild buying strength before the next advance.
From a fundamental standpoint, the move higher is well supported. According to the latest market focus on Forex Factory, traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming US data and further guidance from the Federal Reserve. While some Fed officials continue to push back against aggressive rate-cut expectations, the broader narrative remains one of policy uncertainty and fragile confidence in the US Dollar. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical risks and persistent demand for safe-haven assets continue to underpin gold, as highlighted across major outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters. This creates an environment where gold does not need aggressive bullish news to rise — it only needs the absence of a strong bearish catalyst.
The zone I am watching most closely sits around 5,200–5,180. In momentum-driven uptrends like this, the market often follows a familiar rhythm: a sharp expansion higher, followed by a pullback toward dynamic support — typically the midline of the channel or a prior demand area — and then a decision point. If price pulls back into this zone and buyers defend it convincingly, the bullish structure remains clean and intact. Under that scenario, I would expect gold to resume its upward path and challenge the 5,300 area, which stands out as the next psychological and technical objective.
At this stage, I see no technical or fundamental evidence of a trend reversal. Any short-term weakness should be treated as corrective rather than distributive. For me, the priority remains patience — allowing price to come back to value before aligning with the dominant flow.
Wishing you disciplined execution and successful trading.
Gold Has Entered the Final Phase - Continuation or DistributionOANDA:XAUUSD has delivered a textbook Wyckoff market cycle, transitioning cleanly from accumulation into an aggressive markup phase. The breakout from the accumulation range was impulsive and decisive, confirming that supply had been fully absorbed. Once price left that base, momentum expanded rapidly, validating the higher timeframe bullish structure and pushing price into new all-time high territory.
At current levels, price behavior is shifting from expansion into a high-level decision zone. This is the area where strong trends typically slow down, not because demand disappears, but because large participants begin managing exposure. The projected sideways swings near the highs reflect a potential distribution process, where volatility compresses and liquidity builds. Importantly, this phase is not bearish by default it is a natural response after vertical price discovery.
Structurally, the bullish case remains intact as long as price holds above the prior breakout level and the broader demand zone below. Shallow pullbacks and overlapping candles near the highs would favor continued absorption and eventual continuation. However, failure to hold these levels would open the door to a deeper corrective phase, with a potential markdown toward the unfilled demand zone and gap, which still stands out as a major liquidity magnet.
The key takeaway is simple: gold has already proven strength. What matters now is how price behaves after making new highs. Expansion leads to pause, pause leads to resolution and the market will reveal whether this phase resolves into continuation or correction.
Markup is complete. Distribution is being tested. Let behavior confirm the next move.
Gold Pullback or Extension? Smart Money Sets the Trap Near HighsXAUUSD | Daily Smart Money Plan – H1
Gold keeps its bullish structure intact after a strong impulsive leg, but the current price action shows hesitation just below the recent highs. After a clean BOS and aggressive expansion, price is now trading in premium, where buy-side liquidity has already been delivered. The chart suggests Smart Money is no longer chasing higher prices, but managing positions through rotation.
Macro backdrop today remains hot:
Markets are digesting fresh volatility around U.S. data expectations, shifting Fed rate-cut timing, and persistent geopolitical tension. These factors continue to support gold as a safe haven, but intraday execution shows rebalancing behavior, not blind continuation. Headlines may move price fast — liquidity decides where it settles.
Rather than exploding higher, price pulled back from the highs and left a clear imbalance (FVG) below, signaling unfinished business before any sustained continuation.
Market Structure & Liquidity Context
Higher-timeframe bias remains bullish
Strong bullish BOS confirms trend strength
Short-term pullback forms after liquidity delivery at highs
Clear H1 imbalance + buy zone below current price
Market logic favors premium → discount → continuation
➡️ News creates volatility, but Smart Money seeks efficiency
Key Trading Scenarios
🔴 Sell Reaction at Premium (Short-term rotation)
Zone: 5,265 – 5,275
SL: Above 5,300
Confluence:
Buy-side liquidity already tapped
Momentum slows near highs
Rejection here favors a dip into imbalance before continuation
🟢 Buy Reaction at Discount (Primary Long Setup)
Zone: 5,170 – 5,168
SL: 5,160
Confluence:
H1 imbalance mitigation
Prior structure support
Ideal Smart Money reload zone after pullback
🟢 Continuation Target
Upside Objective: 5,300 – 5,310
Next external liquidity pool
Target only valid after discount reaction + confirmation
Invalidation
Strong H1 acceptance above 5,300 without mitigation
Would signal direct continuation, skipping deeper rebalance
Expectation & Bias
This is not a FOMO breakout environment
Liquidity comes before direction
Rejection = rotation
Acceptance = continuation
Execution > Prediction
💬 Will gold respect the H1 imbalance near 5,170 before attacking 5,300 — or will Smart Money surprise with direct acceptance at the highs?
It’s Consolidating Strength for the Next DecisionHello traders,
Gold remains firmly embedded within a well-defined ascending channel, with price currently trading near five thousand two hundred eighty after a sharp impulsive advance. The recent expansion leg was clean and directional, signaling strong initiative buying rather than short-term speculation. Importantly, price has stayed above the rising channel support, preserving the broader bullish structure.
The highlighted demand zone near five thousand continues to act as the technical anchor of this move. Previous reactions from this area were swift and constructive, reinforcing the view that pullbacks into this zone are structural retests, not signs of distribution. As long as price remains above this demand, downside movement should be viewed as corrective consolidation rather than trend failure.
From a structural perspective, the path of least resistance still points higher. However, the market is entering a phase where tempo matters more than direction. Rather than pushing vertically into new highs, price is more likely to rotate within the channel, allowing momentum to reset before the next attempt toward the all-time high region near five thousand four hundred. This behavior would align with healthy trend mechanics, not exhaustion.
Invalidation remains clear and objective. A sustained break below the demand zone and channel support would challenge the current bullish bias and force a reassessment of the broader structure. Until that occurs, the trend remains supported and intact.
Gold is not in a rush it is positioning. Let structure lead, and let price confirm.
Gold Has Completed the Markup — What Happens Next Hello traders,
Gold is currently trading near five thousand two hundred seventy, following a strong impulsive advance that emerged cleanly from a well-defined Wyckoff accumulation range. The prior consolidation phase did its job absorbing supply, compressing volatility, and building the cause required for expansion. Once price exited that range, the resulting markup leg was decisive and impulsive, confirming that control shifted firmly to the demand side.
At this stage, price behavior is transitioning from markup into a higher-timeframe decision zone. The projected structure on the chart highlights a potential distribution range forming near the upper boundary of the advance. This does not imply immediate bearish intent. Instead, it reflects a typical market process: strong trends often pause near highs as liquidity builds and participation is rebalanced. Sideways or overlapping price action in this region would be consistent with absorption and positioning, not weakness.
From a structural perspective, the bullish case remains intact as long as price holds above the prior breakout and does not re-enter the accumulation range. Pullbacks that remain corrective and fail to show expanding downside momentum would favor continued structural health. Only a sustained breakdown below the prior support would open the door for a deeper markdown phase, as outlined in the alternative path on the chart.
In short, gold has already proven strength through structure and follow-through. What matters now is behavior, not prediction. Whether this resolves into continuation after consolidation or transitions into distribution will be revealed by how price reacts around current highs.
Markup is complete. Structure is intact. Let the market reveal its intent.
What do you think about XAUUSD?? Sharing your thoughts in the comment
West Texas Oil (WTI)Those who follow my work know that we have shorted oil multiple times and successfully built profits.
In my previous post, I clearly mentioned the final short target, and price reached it perfectly.
🔁 Now the situation has changed, and I see a buying opportunity on the
chart.
We are traders —
we build profits from opportunities, not from bias.
I entered a long position at lower levels, and in my view, this area still offers a valid buying opportunity.
As I always say:
I’m not a political analyst, not an oil analyst, and not an OPEC member.
I’m simply a trader who follows a clear rule:
Price reaches my level and gives a signal → I buy
The level breaks and gives the opposite signal → I sell
📉📈 I don’t care whether the market goes up or down.
There is no bias here.
An opportunity is identified, execution is done,
and the rest is up to the market.
❗️Never try to stand in front of the market
and tell it where it should go because of a trendline
or an indicator.
The market moves ruthlessly in its own direction —
and if you fight it, you’ll only be left watching.
🎯 Real trading skill is finding a way to move with the market,
even when it doesn’t agree with you.
🌹 Stay safe & stay profitable
XAU/USD | Going strong! (READ THE CAPTION)By examining the Hourly chart of Gold, we can see that Gold has been on bullish run and still shows no evidence of slowing down or for a reversal. I expect a little bit of correction before going for the next targets.
For the time being, the targets are: 5111, 5141, 5171 and 5200.
Gold Bullish Outlook - Buy Zone & 5200 TargetGold remains in a clear bullish market structure. Price is trading well above the rising long term trendline and has already confirmed multiple Break of Structure showing strong institutional buying interest. After the impulsive rally from the 4550-4620 base price paused briefly in consolidation and then expanded higher validating the continuation trend rather than a distribution phase.
Currently gold is undergoing a healthy corrective pullback after testing the resistance near 5094. The pullback is aligning perfectly with the premium discount zone where the 4840-4760 overlaps with previous structure support and trendline confluence. This strongly suggests the move is corrective not a trend reversal.
As long as price holds above 4760 the bullish structure remains intact and this pullback should be treated as a buy the dip opportunity. A strong bullish rejection from the buy zone or a confirmed 4H close back above 4970 would signal continuation toward higher targets.
From a fundamental perspective gold continues to be supported by persistent geopolitical risks global economic uncertainty and expectations of looser US monetary policy going forward. The market is increasingly pricing in slower US growth which keeps real yields under pressure and limits USD strength both positive for gold.
Additionally ongoing central bank gold accumulation and safe-haven demand further strengthen the upside bias. Unless we see a surprise hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve or a sharp USD rebound downside moves in gold are likely to remain corrective and short lived.
Trade Plan:
Buy Zone: 4840 – 4800
Buy Trigger: Bullish rejection from the buy zone or a strong 4H close above 4970
Targets: 5095 → 5172 → 5200
Invalidation: Sustained 4H close below 4760
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!






















