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Confluence

USDJPY short W1: We are in an impulsive move after the retracement of an uptrend D1: We have an inverted H&S at a psychological level (112.00) which is also a strong Sup/Rez zone H4: We can clearly see a couple of Shooting stars/Hanging man candlesticks which mean that price is retesting the zone but never closing above it So my view is that price will go down till Fib 61.80% level which is also a previous support zone plus keeping in mind that it is a confluent zone between: (a lot of confluence) -Fib 61.80% -D1 trendline -W1 trendline -previously tested support zone
Short
by YerwantKansabedian
1
NZDUSD - Retracement Before More Downside MovementWith the DXY in a crucial area laying in line with the 78.6 % Fibonacci level as well as a potential head & shoulder pattern, we may see this pair shoot to the upside. However, we have breached the descending trend line and closed above. This may be a false breakout or we will see a break & retest to push price higher for the USD. If the latter occurs, we should see NZDUSD plummet. Looking at the daily timeframe on NZDUSD, we saw a fakeout spiking 70 pips above the descending trend line, however we saw previous resistance met, looking left, and saw a sharp decline to the downside. We then came up to test resistance which we then rejected, ( this was also a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If you drop down to the 4HR timeframe, you will be able to see a double spinning top / doji formation off this zone showing price exhaustion and a potential reversal. At the time of writing this article, we are currently respecting the ascending trend line and a minor support level. I have the 61.8%/78.6% Fibonacci marked up in blue as my desired entry to short this pair. Being in a pennant, we are currently consolidating and we can expect a breakout. I favour short, however I will look for a break & retest of the descending trend line incase DXY weakens which will then allow us to short USD pairs as well as buy Gold. The EMA's have also recently crossed over as well as dropping down to the 4HR, we can see they are touching each other now and we can expect a new downside leg. The creation of a new range of lower lows and lower highs, rejection of trend line and resistance as well as the Fibonacci retracement are all used for confluence or more confirmation. I will remain patient and look for a high probability , high risk/reward trade. Psychology and risk management is key to being consistent and profitable. Have a great week !
Short
by KeownArcher
2
AUD USD SHORTAUD/USD Has recently had a lot of manipulation price has currently rejected the zone of 0.7100 and closed beneath I believe it's time to fall to the down side. price has currently completed a lower high on the higher timeframes with a clean Trendline rejection including more patterns. I can see price going to the Trendline and the Resistance for one more retest then fail to break above, this will confirm a Lower high on the smaller timeframes and also a lovely Head and Shoulders pattern, currently waiting for confirmations then I will be looking for a set up roughly 100-200 pips to the downside. Please like and follow. Thanks, Kain3e
Short
by Kain3e
Tell me I am Wrong about the Brits I wanted to verify my views on GBPJPY as to whether or not it is truly on the uptrend. I was high yesterday so I doubted my report yesterday. But with a sober mind I can say price action is definitely bullish. Price currently is on my green 38.2 fib, which is slightly above my orange 38.2 fib. Odds are if price does not move upward it will trend sideways. Price action is quite bullish. The next price goal is @145.000, but I see long term price action towards 145.500. Not only is it a major quarter point, but I have two fib levels that show confluence in that area. If price moves towards 144.000, then we must wait until further price action.
Long
by masterylucain
nzdchf bearish + bullish set upon the nzd/chf set up, I see both a bearish and bullish set up. on the weekly, it showing a massive bearish trendline with confluence of a resistance zone which is shown on the 1d/4hr chart. Price seems to respect the resistance zone by forming a double top and should hopefully forming another one as well if price decides to create that. however, price seems to be in an uptrend currently so I am also hoping that the market will drive towards the support zone which is technically a fib retracement of 0.318 if you count this as an uptrend as well. first trade is a short term one whereas the second trade is a long term trade and if it is correct should drive higher than the take profit listed.
by chiefcapitalfx
Confluence detectors and crypto press inability to note patternsSo the big headline in the queue this day again involves a confluence detector. Its being applied to Bitcoin. For the sake of amateur Journalism, lets see what confluence is: Google defines "Confluence" as follows: "the junction of two rivers, especially rivers of approximately equal width. "here at the confluence of the Laramie and North Platte Rivers" synonyms: convergence, meeting, junction, joining, conflux, watersmeet; sangam "the confluence of the Rhine and the Mosel" an act or process of merging. "a major confluence of the world's financial markets" I imagine the detector to be the modern day equivalent of a diving rod - perhaps even a bi forked stick or twig. This in an attempt to get people to buy what.... after thinking about it, ...Bitcoin - isn't gold to Lite coins silver - it is a highly overpriced, overrated aluminum to bitcoins gold. To XRP's palladium, To even BCH's bronze. Bitcoin acts and behaves like a really negative junk bond. TODAY IS FRIDAY. The press seems to have neglected that the market tends to peak most Fridays and to a lesser degree Saturdays ,followed by a Sunday sell-off for those who haven't noticed this correlation yet and are reactionary day traders. The weekend's do not always produce this result - but I again encourage you to do a 30, 60 , 90 day look back , and find the pattern to this very obvious pump and dump. Another headline again is slamming XRP; saying how it is spending its fifth weekend in the red, in a row; but NOT saying that it is up from the .28 territory it's "Confluence detector" said it wouldn't break anytime soon. Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat
BITSTAMP:BCHUSD
by Cryptocautious
NZDCHF Short ScenarioWe see here that we have some beautiful structure, including two slope divergence, giving us some idea of a Potential Reversal Zone. Confirming that with Price action, Fibonacci Clusters and Candle Stick Pattern. Makes me feel CHF is in the dominate Role here in the pair, leading to our introductory sell to a longer term, "Possibly" Position trade for more than 400 pips. We're currently eyeballing lower levels with a +285 pip Max trade. Thanks! #Ozark P.S. Check the 4HR and 1HR Tf's for more confirmation of my analysis for Structure. Candle Stick Patterns will also be pretty relevent! Happy Trading
Short
by TheOzarkTrader
3hour deathcross turkey appears!This turkey must think now that its a couple months after thanksgiving that its safe to roam the charts out in the open...however, when a deathcross turkey appears it typically tends to bring hungry bears soon after it. in 10 minutes from now we should see the 3 hour death cross occur on btc...on xrp when the 3 hour death cross occurred recently it coincided with a decent bearishbreakdown so that could very likely happen here too with btc....btc will now have death crosses on the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr and 1 day charts....the 4hr charts trajectory suggests a 4hr death cross by January 18th currently and likely sooner if we see further bearish priceaction soon...this confluence across most major timeframes suggest the current bearflag has a much higher probability of breaking downward instead of an inverted bart...but as always its best to be prepared for both outcomes. thanks for reading and good luck! gobble gobble!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
2
EUR/JPY at interesting level The EUR/JPY has moved down to an area around 125-126 that has seen price be strongly rejected from on two occasions in the past. This time the move into support coincides with an ascending trendline from 2016. Price has bounced strongly for two days since coming into contact with the trendline which gives greater validation to its importance. Technically I have confidence in the setup however the fundamental landscape is a bit more foggy. The trade should be monitored closely once entered and exited at the earliest sign of any risk aversion entering the market, as this would almost certainly cause a sharp drop in the EUR/JPY. In line with that thought, should price break below the ascending trendline and horizontal support along with a risk adverse attitude entering the market then my bias would change to the short side.
Long
by MarkE
GBPAUD: A Case Study in Midpoint ConfluenceProbability of a midpoint projecting a valid future reversal point is increased if multiple midpoints show confluence at the same zone. Case in point, here the Swing low A, followed by midpoint E (breakout midpoint), projected a swing high at F. However, there was a smaller swing along the way which also hinted at swing high F: Swing high B, followed by midpoint C (split between the two strongest down bars in that swing) suggested a swing low at point D. This was a valid buy area on it's own. But better yet, the 1.618 extension of swing B-C-D gave additional credibility to the expected swing high of swing A-E-F. When multiple different swings line up and point to similar reversal zones such as here, the market can be considered to be in a very harmonious state and such setups have better odds of resulting in a winning trade.
Education
by CryptoBanker
AUD/USD Long SetupAUD/USD Long Opportunity 4h: I have decided to take this trade if given the opportunity because it coordinates with my preset R:R . We are currently (12/24/18) at a major support level (.7038) tested last & respected since Oct 5th, 2018. We did close below on the daily this only to retest and reject from top of daily (green) demand zone @ .7072. Also, we are currently following a steep bearish trend line so far well respected, with the 14 EMA acting as dynamic resistance to help confirm we are still bearish. I believe we will continue bearish in an attempt for the market to retest the .70000 psychological level and possibly retest an old trendline as support starting from .80000 psychological level, which was shown to act as a resistance for the market's bearish trend (shown on daily) since Jan. 30th 2018. This level falls at a confluence with the steep bearish trendline @ .6972. I believe IF the market comes to retest that level it will be a bull trap/wick fill. My stopless is set at .6967 which is 5 pips below confluence in case it goes south. The possibility of the market (in my eyes) blowing past the .70000 major psychological level without rejections straight to the confluence of trendlines @ .6972 is unlikely. I will set an alert for tradingview to notify me around .70000 psychological level, and enter a long position (with lot size determined based on 10% risk rule applied to # of pips for stop loss), either on the first test/rejection wick or wait for a double bottom after the initial rejection for additional confirmation. TP is set at .7196 right below the next daily supply zone/minor psychological level of .7200. This trade has a 6.31 Risk:Reward ratio, with a 31 pip stop loss and a 198 pip take profit. Please apply your own throughts/analysis to mine and don't forget to share your thoughts and follow for more analysis Aaron Leibowitz Free World Trading
Long
by UnknownUnicorn1541297
Confluence II: Long Live Lord ConfluenceReferring to the previous bit, this 4h chart shows some intra-timeframe confluence with the aforementioned 1h chart. Using multiple timeframes to validate your edge is essential to having sound trades, and trades that you can learn from. Without having a reliable standard to judge each trade by, how can you contemplate your wins and losses with any use? As a trader one evolves psychologically and strategically. Things are often being tweaked as the market is always tweaking the fuck out, but having a stone cold setup across multiple timeframes will really help sus out the effectiveness of any given approach over a sufficient amount of trades to avoid strategically 'walking in circles'. Anything can happen, and while confluence in any form is often 'magnetic', it's important to have eyes wide open to the bigger picture as well. If you're getting tunnel vision you're already in the emotional danger zone.
by OhAndArr
ConfluenceThis is an untouched glance at what I look at from time to time, and today on the darkest day of the year I'm going to talk about confluence. Confluence is just when a series of factors align, and in the TA world it's just when your personal suite of indicators and signals aligns with your strategy. In this 1h timeframe slice of the 'blue chip' of the crypto markets we can see that price has broken a trend line, an Ichi structure, and the relative Bollinger basis. The red line below marks an S/R flip from the previous dump, which has confluence with the Fibonacci retracement AND the relative Kumo. It's not exact, but nothing is. Anything can happen, confluence is just something to utilize to bolster strategic edges and generally discern R with a sharper eye.
Education
by OhAndArr