Contains IO script
BTC WILL NOT BE THERE🪙 CRYPTOCAP:BTC October 10th 😅 Straddle breakevens:
118000 & 127000
🪙 CRYPTOCAP:BTC October 17th 😅 Straddle breakevens:
116000 & 130000
σ Sigma probabilities:
October 10th
| σ | Multiplier × 😅 | Probability
| 1σ | 117000 & 128000 | ≈68%
| 2σ | 112000 & 133000 | ≈95%
October 17th
| σ | Multiplier × 😅 | Probability
| 1σ | 114000 & 131000 | ≈68%
| 2σ | 106000 & 139000 | ≈95%
ADA- Cardano - Entered Short - This is Why!On the Left is the Daily Chart and the Location is a Fib Area.
Analyzing the 1Hr chart for my entry:
1. As previous said Location is Fib - this is a great location for seller to come in
2. Fake Break on Fib 61.8
3. Indcreasing PVR on the up wave as we approach Fib 61.8 and High PVR volume at the top.
4. Hightest down volume wave after a very long time
5. Placed AVWAP and waited for a Plutus short singal below it
6.... and finally the short signal arrives PDHTMU (Push Down and then Hard to Move Up) with a high Speed Index of 8.4S
Target in the middle of Fib, but as long as we get to 50Fib we move are stop to breakeven or trail it.
Enjoy!
ETH: Drop from $4334On September 22, Ethereum turned downward from the $4334 level on the 1-hour timeframe. The move was strong: the price broke through all four profit-taking stages and reached $3819, giving a difference of more than $500 per coin. Those who held the trade systematically captured a result that would have been painful to miss.
I managed the trade step by step: the algorithm highlighted key profit zones and moved the position to breakeven in time. This removed emotions and allowed me to focus on strategy rather than doubts. Such an approach works like a navigator — the road is clear in advance, even when the market throws sharp turns.
An interesting fact: most financial indicators are based on mathematical formulas that exclude the psychological factor. That’s why discipline and algorithm often outperform intuition. In my experience, the win rate for Ethereum trades stays above 80%, and this case only confirmed that statistic.
The market will always look chaotic to those who act emotionally. But when the process is built on a system, trading shifts from guessing to a structured process, where results are defined by discipline.
BTC: Growth from $109KOn September 28, Bitcoin turned into an upward movement on the 1-hour chart from the $109,804 zone. From this level, the market went through all four stages of profit-taking and reached $120,999, giving a potential difference of more than $11,000 per coin. Those who followed the system were able to capture the maximum from this trend.
The key point here is how the movement was managed. The algorithm highlighted important zones, helped secure the position in time, and reduced risks. No emotions, no guessing—just a step-by-step process where every action was clear in advance and confirmed by market structure.
For beginners, such a tool works like a navigator: it shows where it’s safer to lock in profits and when it makes sense to hold longer. In conditions of high volatility, discipline, automation, and technical analysis become the main advantage. That’s what turns the market from a chaotic game into a structured process. An interesting fact I’ve noticed is that this indicator shows an 84% win rate on Bitcoin trades.
CRSP Stock Technical Outlook | Key Levels, Momentum & MarketDescription:
CRISPR Therapeutics AG (NASDAQ: CRSP) — a leading gene-editing biotech firm — continues to attract investor attention as the company advances its CRISPR-Cas9-based therapies targeting severe genetic diseases. Despite volatility in the biotech sector, CRSP remains one of the top innovators with strong long-term growth potential and institutional interest.
In this analysis, I focus on key technical levels, market structure, and momentum indicators to assess potential price reactions. Watching closely for trend continuation or reversal setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. Always do your own research before making any trading or investment decisions.
#CRSP #CRISPR #BiotechStocks #NASDAQ #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #SwingTrading #Investing #GeneEditing #Biotech #CRSPStock #StockAnalysis #MomentumTrading
BTCUSD – Swing Short from Supply Ceiling (125k → 118k Target)Bitcoin entered a major supply zone around 125K–126K after a vertical rally from 108K. Multiple VWAP confluences and dense liquidation bubbles show trapped longs and distribution by smart money. I’m short from 125K with a stop at 130K and target at 118K for a 1:1.3 R/R. Expecting a mean reversion as the crowd buys the breakout and whales sell into strength.
PDD: Flow-Backed Squeeze loading up TTM Squeeze coiling tight - momentum building.
132.84 dark pool + volume shelf bounce shows strong buyer defense.
Weekly MACD still rising, call flow leaned 3:1 bullish last week.
Volume is the missing fuel- break above 136.5-137 could open a clean run to the 140 call wall.
A push through 140 with volume/size = gamma ignition/squeeze
USDJPY HEAVY BUYIn this video I will be sharing my USDJPY analysis today, by providing my complete technical analysis by using candlesticks and footprint indicator as confirmation in order to have confidence over the market/control over your emotion no matter what the fundamentals are saying concerning the market, so you can watch it and improve your forex trading skill
USDCHF HEAVY BUYIn this video I will be sharing my USDCHF analysis today, by providing my complete technical analysis by using candlesticks and footprint as confirmation in order to have confidence over the market/control over your emotion no matter what the fundamentals are saying concerning the market, so you can watch it and improve your forex trading skill.
USDCADCOT Positioning: USD long 36.53%, short 63.47%; CAD long 11.95%, short 88.05%.
Bias: Very Bullish for USD/CAD — institutions remain heavily net short CAD and moderately long USD.
Seasonality: +0.61% (historically supportive for USD strength).
Economic Score: CAD weaker across employment (-0.12%) and inflation, while USD maintains relative stability.
Price trades around 1.3949, showing a breakout structure from the 1.3900 resistance zone — now turned support. The trend remains upward with higher highs and higher lows. Momentum suggests continuation toward next resistance levels.
USDCAD
Primary Setup (Bullish)
Direction: BUY USDCAD
Entry Zone: 1.3920 – 1.3950 (on minor pullback or retest of breakout zone)
Stop-Loss: 1.3860
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.4020
TP2: 1.4100
Alternative Setup (If Primary Fails)
Direction: SELL USDCAD
Entry: Below 1.3860 (break of support + retest confirmation)
Stop-Loss: 1.3920
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.3780
TP2: 1.3700
S&P 500 Futures: Trend Intact, Nothing Suggesting a Top YetDaily chart view on ES (S&P 500 Futures) — the trend remains extremely clean with price holding well above the 5, 10, 20, and 50 MAs. Each pullback has been shallow and met with strong buying, confirming that momentum and structure are still fully bullish.
There’s currently nothing on the chart suggesting exhaustion — no sign of distribution, chop, or weakness through the MA stack. Context across higher timeframes continues to support further upside, and the market structure suggests we could easily continue much higher from here.
“Do you think this trend still has legs, or are we close to topping out?”
“Which path do you see next — Option A or Option B?”
“Are you still buying dips here, or starting to look for reversal signs?”
Bias: Bullish continuation
USDJPYCOT Data:
USD → 36.5% long vs 63.5% short (bearish bias).
JPY → 64.5% long vs 35.5% short (bullish bias).
This means institutions are positioning bearish on USD and bullish on JPY, supporting downside pressure for USDJPY.
Economic Data
US NFP came much weaker (22k vs 75k forecast), hurting USD.
CPI (2.9% vs forecast 2.9%) → neutral.
Interest rate bias: US showing a -0.50% decline expectation vs JPY slight +0.25% rise → divergence favors JPY strength.
Current price: 147.49.
Price is consolidating near the mid-level of the recent range (146.5 – 149.0).
Resistance: 148.50 – 149.00 zone.
Support: 146.50, then deeper support at 145.80.
Trade Setup
*
Direction: SELL
Entry: 147.80 – 148.20 (on a retest of resistance zone).
Stop-Loss: 149.10
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1 146.80
TP2 146.20
Alternative Setup (if primary fails)
If USDJPY breaks above 149.20 with momentum, consider a buy setup:
Entry: 149.30 – 149.60
Stop-Loss: 148.60
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1 150.20
TP2 150.80
XAGUSDCOT Positioning:
Longs: 72,318 (78.3%)
Shorts: 20,042 (21.7%)
Net Position: +52,276 → strongly bullish bias.
Open Interest: Moderate rise, confirming market participation.
Economic Data:
GDP strong (3.8%), but Manufacturing PMI (49.1) shows contraction.
Services PMI (50.0) flat → neutral.
Retail sales (+0.60%) supportive but slightly weaker than expected.
Sentiment: Neutral-to-bullish with seasonality slightly supportive.
Interpretation:
Institutions remain net-long silver, supporting medium-term bullish bias. However, weaker retail and PMI readings warn of pullbacks.
Primary Trade Setup (Bullish Continuation)
Entry: Buy around 47.50 – 47.90
Stop-Loss: 46.80
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 48.50
TP2: 49.20
Alternative Setup (If Primary Fails / Breakdown)
Entry: Sell below 46.70 (breakdown confirmation).
Stop-Loss: 47.50
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 46.00
TP2: 45.20
EURUSDCOT Positioning:
EUR: 64.64% Longs vs. 35.36% Shorts → Institutions still favor longs, but net change shows slight weakening (–0.51%).
USD: 36.53% Longs vs. 63.47% Shorts → Institutions more tilted to shorts, but weekly change (+3.56%) indicates strengthening USD sentiment.
Retail Sentiment: 34% Long vs. 66% Short → Retail is heavily short, which often supports bullish bias for EURUSD.
Seasonality: –0.69% (negative), suggesting October historically leans bearish.
Macro Data:
EUR Employment weaker than forecast (0.1% vs. 0.2%).
Eurozone Unemployment slightly higher (6.3% vs. 6.2%).
USD got a relative boost from interest rate sentiment (+1).
Interpretation: Mixed outlook. Institutions lean bullish EUR, retail is short (contrarian bullish), but macro/seasonality provide bearish pressure. Net effect → Range-to-Slightly Bullish Bias.
Technical Chart Insights (4H Chart @ 1.1742)
Strong support around 1.1680 – 1.1700 zone (recent lows).
Resistance seen at 1.1820 – 1.1850 (swing highs).
Price consolidating between 1.1700 – 1.1820, suggesting potential breakout soon.
Primary Setup (Bullish Continuation)
Entry: Buy near 1.1710 – 1.1730
Stop-Loss: Below 1.1660
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.1785
TP2: 1.1820
Alternative Setup (If Bullish Fails / Breakdown Scenario)
Entry: Sell below 1.1660
Stop-Loss: Above 1.1710.
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.1600
TP2: 1.1550
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading in forex, commodities, indices, or cryptocurrencies involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. we are not responsible for any losses incurred from the use of this information.
XAUUSD GOLD COT Positioning
COT Longs: 332,808
COT Shorts: 66,059
Long %: 83.44%
Short %: 16.56%
Weekly Change: +1.29% longs added
This shows institutions are heavily long Gold, indicating strong bullish sentiment.
Macro & Fundamentals
GDP Growth (Actual: 3.8% vs 3.3% forecast) → Stronger than expected (bullish USD, slightly negative for Gold).
Services PMI: 50.0 vs 51.8 forecast → Weaker services activity (bullish for Gold, as it suggests softer demand outlook).
Retail Sales MoM: 0.60% vs 0.20% forecast → Stronger consumer activity (supports USD).
NFP: 22k vs 75k forecast → Huge miss, very weak jobs data (strongly bullish for Gold).
Seasonality: +0.32% average in October → Mild positive tilt for Gold.
Mixed data, but weak labor market + heavy COT longs favor continuation of the bullish trend.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Price is trading around $3,886, near recent highs.
Strong uptrend visible since early September, with higher highs & higher lows.
Key Resistance: $3,900 – $3,920 (psychological + chart top).
Support Levels: $3,850 (short-term), then $3,780 (swing low).
Primary Setup (Bullish)
Entry: Buy above $3,880 – $3,890 (break & close above recent highs).
Stop-Loss: Below $3,840
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: $3,920
TP2: $3,960
Alternative Setup
Entry: Sell below $3,850 (breakdown under short-term support).
Stop-Loss: Above $3,890.
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: $3,800
TP2: $3,750
Bears Crushed at $420 - Institutions Load the Spring📊 **To view my confluences and linework:**
Step 1️⃣: Grab the chart
Step 2️⃣: Unhide Group 1 in the object tree
Step 3️⃣: Hide and unhide specific confluences one by one
💡 **Pro tip:** Double-click the screen to reveal RSI, MFI, CVD, and OBV indicators alongside divergence markings! 🎯
Title: ⚡ TSLA: Bears Crushed at $420 - Institutions Load the Spring
The Market Participant Battle:
Bears drove Tesla into a brutal selloff from the $470 highs, hammering price down to the $416-420 zone with relentless selling pressure over the past week. However, at this critical support level (marked as point 2 on the 1H chart), institutional buyers absorbed the entire wave of selling—evidenced by bullish fractal candles showing no absorption on the footprint, positive CVD divergence, and price closing above the anchored VWAP 1st deviation. The bears overextended themselves, and now price is primed to return to the $430-442 zone where proven market participants (point 3 closing above point 1) have established demand. This is a classic bear trap at volume support, with smart money positioning for the bounce into earnings on October 15th. 📈
Confluences:
Confluence 1: Cypher Harmonic Pattern at Entry 🦋
The 1H chart shows a completed Cypher harmonic pattern with the D-leg touching precisely at the $424.32 entry level. This pattern provides a mathematically precise reversal zone, with targets at $430.27 (T1) and $442.18 (T2), offering a stellar 5.49:1 risk/reward ratio with stop at $418.36. The pattern aligns perfectly with our volume support at point 2, giving us both geometric and volume-based confluence. The Cypher's PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) captured the exact low where institutions stepped in. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 2: Bullish Divergences on Oversold RSI/MFI 📊
Both RSI and MFI are deeply oversold at point 4 (around 21-44 range), showing clear bullish divergence. As price made lower lows into the $416 area, both momentum oscillators made higher lows—a textbook divergence pattern that signals exhausted selling pressure. The RSI shows a "bull" signal marked on the chart, confirming momentum is turning. This divergence on the 1H timeframe is particularly powerful given we're at multi-day support. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 3: Anchored VWAP Institutional Buying Signal 💎
The anchored VWAP from point 1 shows price dipped below the 1st standard deviation but closed above it before reaching the 2nd deviation—a classic sign of institutional buying. The VWAP at the 0.62 level ($427.21) and 0.705 level ($421.63) created a support sandwich around our entry. When price pierced below but immediately recovered above the 1st deviation, it signals that smart money is stepping in aggressively. This is not retail behavior; this is algorithmic institutional support. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 4: Fibonacci Extension to 0.79 Pullback 📐
The Fibonacci extension anchored on the bullish low after the gap shows price touching the 0.79 pullback line—one of the most common institutional retracement levels. This golden pocket between 0.618-0.79 is where professional traders hunt for entries. Combined with our volume support, this creates a high-probability bounce zone. The fact that price held this level on multiple 1H candles shows strong defense by bulls. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 5: Volume Profile Analysis 📊
Two critical volume profile observations strengthen this setup:
1. **Anchoring Volume Profile (Developing POC):** Price went below the developing Point of Control, then pulled back and closed above at point 4—showing rejection of lower prices and return to value.
2. **Fixed Range Volume Profile (Points 1→3):** Shows price rejecting from a volume gap, piercing through a cluster of volume, then pushing up and closing above the POC of the area. This absorption of supply at point 2 created a launch pad for the current bounce.
Both volume profiles show institutional footprints defending this $420 zone with conviction. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 6: Bullish Fractal Candle Structure 🕯️
Over the last 24 hours leading to point 4, we've seen consecutive lower lows and bearish candles. However, at point 2 support, a bullish fractal candle appeared—a bullish divergence on a lower timeframe showing no buying absorption on the footprint chart. This was followed by a higher high on candle level. Both candles are bullish on footprint (delta), confirming smart money accumulation while retail panicked. This micro-structure is gold for entries. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 7: Footprint Order Flow - Buying Absorption & Imbalance 📈
The footprint chart (ATR 14, Buy and Sell volume) reveals critical order flow dynamics at the turning point:
- **Big Red Candle Buying Absorption:** The large bearish candle at Friday 07:30 AM shows Delta +408 and Total 8.22K—despite the red candle, buyers were ABSORBING the selling pressure (positive delta on a down candle = institutional buying into weakness)
- **Powerful Close Above Stacked Imbalance:** The initial reversal candle shows Delta +920 and Total 7.92K with a strong close above stacked sell imbalances (the dotted boxes), indicating bulls overpowering bears decisively
- **Close Above POC:** The third candle in the turning point sequence closed above the Point of Control with Delta +440 and Total 7.23K, confirming buyers won the battle for value
This order flow sequence is textbook institutional accumulation: absorb selling on the way down, reverse with authority, close above key levels. The footprint doesn't lie—smart money is long here. ✅ AGREES
Web Research Findings:
- **Technical Analysis:** TSLA hit support at $439.97 and has strong support at $440 level with 50-day MA at $439.97. RSI currently at 38.47 (oversold territory). Technical signals show "Strong Buy" on daily timeframe with resistance at $480. Current pivot: $440.94. Stock broke rising trend showing strong momentum but RSI >70 earlier suggested overbought conditions that have now corrected. 📊
- **Recent News/Earnings:** MASSIVE CATALYST: Q3 deliveries reported October 2nd showed 497,099 vehicles delivered—CRUSHING Wall Street's 447,000 estimate by 11%! 🚀 This is Tesla's highest quarterly delivery number EVER. Energy division deployed record 12.5 GWh of storage products. Earnings scheduled for October 15, 2025 (11 days away). Analysts expect $0.49-0.50 EPS. The delivery beat has bulls excited despite stock pulling back 5.1% on October 3rd (profit-taking after the rally). Tax credit expiration on Sept 30th created pull-forward demand. 📰
- **Analyst Sentiment:** MIXED to BULLISH momentum. Canaccord raised PT to $490 from $333 (47% boost!) 🎯 Deutsche Bank raised to $435 from $345. Goldman Sachs at $395 (Neutral). Wedbush's Dan Ives (major bull) sees significant upside driven by AI/autonomy narrative, not just cars. Consensus target: $345 (below current price), but top analysts see $435-490 upside. Recent upgrades cite robotaxi launch in Austin, strong energy business, and AI potential. However, concerns exist about post-tax-credit sales slowdown and European weakness. Mixed bag, but momentum shifted bullish after delivery beat. 💭
- **Data Releases & Economic Calendar:** Q3 earnings on October 15, 2025 is THE major catalyst. This is 11 days away—right in our target window. Conference call will discuss delivery guidance, margins, robotaxi expansion, and AI initiatives. No major macro data releases impacting TSLA specifically before earnings. Next Fed decision not until November. The earnings catalyst could propel TSLA through our $442 T2 target and beyond if results/guidance surprise. ⏰
- **Interest Rate Impact:** Fed holding steady, no immediate rate changes expected before TSLA earnings. Current environment slightly positive for growth stocks. Lower rates benefit TSLA's valuation given its high P/E (209x). Stable rate environment through earnings reduces macro volatility risk. 💵
Layman's Summary:
Here's the simple story: Tesla just shocked everyone by delivering 497,000 cars in Q3—way more than the 447,000 experts expected. That's HUGE. The stock actually dropped after this news (classic "buy the rumor, sell the news"), pulling back to the $420-427 area where we're entering. Here's why this is a gift:
1) The delivery numbers prove demand is strong despite no more tax credits
2) Earnings are on October 15th (11 days away)—if they beat expectations like deliveries did, stock could explode
3) Multiple major analysts just raised their price targets to $435-490 after seeing the delivery numbers
4) The stock's pullback to $420 is technical profit-taking, NOT fundamental weakness
Think of it like this: Tesla just showed it's the strongest kid on the playground (record deliveries), but kids are still picking on it (stock down to $420) because they're worried about what happens next quarter without tax credits. BUT the adults (institutions) are stepping in at $420 to buy because they know earnings could be massive. We're buying with the smart money, not the scared retail traders. The risk is small ($6 to stop loss) but the reward is big ($18-22 to targets). Earnings catalyst could be rocket fuel. 🚀
Machine Derived Information:
- **Image 1 (1H Overview with Volume Profile):** Shows the complete 1→4 pattern with volume profile clusters at point 2 around $420. Price rejecting from volume gap and closing above POC. Significance: Institutional demand zone clearly marked by volume profile support and multiple confluence factors stacking at $420-424 entry zone. – AGREES ✔
- **Image 2 (1H with Fibonacci Levels):** Displays the 0.62, 0.705, and 0.79 Fibonacci retracement levels perfectly aligning with support at point 2. Shows anchored VWAP bouncing from 1st deviation. Significance: Mathematical precision of the reversal zone—not random support, but a calculated institutional entry level using Fibonacci geometry. – AGREES ✔
- **Image 3 (1H with EMAs/Moving Averages):** Shows price testing multiple moving average supports with the black, red, and blue EMAs creating a support confluence around the $420 area. Significance: Multiple timeframe moving averages converging at our entry creates a "fortress" of technical support that typically holds on first test. – AGREES ✔
- **Image 4 (1H with RSI, MFI, CVD, OBV Indicators):** RSI showing oversold at 44.59, MFI at 21.12 (deeply oversold), CVD showing positive divergence (green candles on volume delta), OBV and BB maintaining structure. Significance: All four momentum indicators simultaneously oversold and showing positive divergence = high-probability reversal setup. – AGREES ✔
- **Image 5 (Cypher Harmonic Pattern):** Clean Cypher pattern with entry at $424.32, T1 at $430.27, T2 at $442.18, stop at $418.36. Pattern age: 2 bars. Significance: Harmonic patterns provide specific mathematical entry/target levels with historically proven win rates. The 5.49:1 R/R is exceptional. – AGREES ✔
- **Image 6 (Risk Management View):** Shows target at $471 (16.59% gain), entry zone around $424-428, stop loss at $415.93 (3.02%), R/R of 5.49:1 with 19 contracts. Significance: Demonstrates professional risk management with tight stop and multiple targets, allowing for scaling out at T1 ($430) and holding for T2 ($442) or beyond. – AGREES ✔
- **Image 7 (Footprint Chart - Order Flow):** Volume footprint showing Friday 07:30 AM reversal sequence with Delta +408 (8.22K volume) on big red candle = buying absorption, Delta +920 (7.92K) on initial reversal with close above stacked imbalances, Delta +440 (7.23K) on third candle closing above POC. Significance: Institutional order flow confirms smart money accumulated aggressively at the lows—this is the smoking gun proving institutions were buyers, not sellers. – AGREES ✔
Actionable Machine Summary:
The machine-derived analysis shows a textbook reversal setup with SEVEN major confluences all pointing to the same $420-424 entry zone:
1. ✅ Cypher harmonic pattern D-leg completion
2. ✅ RSI/MFI oversold with bullish divergence
3. ✅ Anchored VWAP institutional buying signal
4. ✅ Fibonacci 0.79 retracement (golden pocket)
5. ✅ Volume Profile support at POC + absorption zone
6. ✅ Bullish fractal candle structure with positive delta
7. ✅ Footprint order flow showing buying absorption, close above imbalances, and close above POC
All seven confluence factors **AGREE** with the long thesis. Not a single bearish signal in the confluence stack. The footprint order flow is particularly compelling—showing institutions absorbed selling (Delta +408 on red candle), reversed with authority (Delta +920), and closed above POC (Delta +440). This is professional accumulation caught in real-time. Entry at current levels ($427-428) is ideal, with tight stop at $418.36 protecting 2-3% downside while targeting 3-5% initial move to $430-442. The 5.49:1 R/R is outstanding. Scale in if price dips to $424, but the setup is active NOW. 🎯
Conclusion:
**Trade Prediction: SUCCESS ✅**
**Confidence: High (85%) 🔥**
Key Reasons for Success:
1. **Record Q3 Deliveries Beat (497K vs 447K expected)** – This is MASSIVE positive fundamental surprise that validates demand strength
2. **Perfect Technical Setup** – Seven separate confluences all agree: Cypher pattern, divergences, VWAP, Fibonacci, volume profile, fractal structure, and order flow
3. **Footprint Order Flow Confirmation** – Buying absorption on red candle, close above stacked imbalances, and close above POC = institutional accumulation
4. **Earnings Catalyst on October 15th** – Only 11 days away, could drive explosive move if results match delivery strength
5. **Analyst Upgrade Cycle** – Canaccord ($490 PT), Deutsche Bank ($435 PT) recently raised targets after delivery numbers
6. **5.49:1 Risk/Reward Ratio** – Exceptional R/R with tight $418.36 stop protecting minimal downside
7. **Oversold Technical Conditions** – RSI 38.47, MFI 21.12 with bullish divergence = rubber band stretched and ready to snap back
8. **Bear Trap Pattern Complete** – Bears overextended into support, institutions bought the panic (proven by footprint), retail capitulation = reversal fuel
Key Risks to Monitor:
1. **Post-Tax-Credit Demand Uncertainty** – Tax credit expired Sept 30th; Q4 demand could weaken (analysts concerned about this)
2. **European Sales Weakness** – Continuing slump in Europe due to Musk controversy and competition from VW/BYD
3. **Analyst Consensus Below Current Price** – Average PT of $345 suggests downside risk if momentum stalls
4. **Earnings Miss Risk** – If Q3 earnings disappoint on October 15th, could invalidate the setup
5. **Overbought RSI Earlier** – Stock was overbought >70 recently, correction could extend further
6. **Stop Loss Below Volume Node** – If $418.36 breaks, next support is $410-415 (gap down risk)
Risk/Reward Assessment:
With 5.49:1 R/R, you're risking $6.00 (to $418.36 stop) to make $18-24 (to $442-448 targets). Even with a 50% win rate, this is highly profitable. The technical setup is pristine with seven agreeing confluences. The footprint order flow provides the final piece of evidence—institutions were buyers at $420, not sellers. The fundamental catalyst (earnings) is perfectly timed. The only real risk is if earnings disappoint or Q4 guidance is very weak—but the delivery beat suggests this is unlikely.
Final Recommendation: TAKE THE TRADE 🚀
**Execution Plan:**
- **Entry:** $427-428 (current levels) ✅
- **Add:** $424 if dips (Cypher entry)
- **Stop Loss:** $418.36 (below volume support)
- **Take Profit 1:** $430.27 (take 50% off)
- **Take Profit 2:** $442.18 (take 30% off)
- **Runner:** $470+ (hold 20% for earnings pop on Oct 15)
This is a HIGH-CONVICTION long with exceptional risk/reward, multiple technical confluences, bullish fundamental surprise, confirmed institutional order flow, and a near-term earnings catalyst. The setup is TEXTBOOK. Bears got trapped at $420, institutions loaded up (proven by footprint), and we're going to ride this spring release into earnings. Risk is minimal, upside is substantial. **SEND IT.** ⚡🚀
Sellers Exhausted - Bulls Spring Loaded at Value📊 **To view my confluences and linework:**
Step 1️⃣: Grab the chart
Step 2️⃣: Unhide Group 1 in the object tree
Step 3️⃣: Hide and unhide specific confluences one by one
💡 **Pro tip:** Double-click the screen to reveal RSI, MFI, CVD, and OBV indicators alongside divergence markings! 🎯
Title: 🎯 BX: Sellers Exhausted - Bulls Spring Loaded at Value
The Market Participant Battle:
Blackstone (BX) has carved out a classic scenario where aggressive sellers from the recent high at point 3 drove price down through multiple timeframes, establishing their dominance. However, at point 2, these sellers exhausted themselves into a proven zone of institutional interest marked by anchored VWAP and high-volume acceptance. The critical tell? Point 3 closed ABOVE point 1, confirming that buyers from point 2 are actually stronger than the sellers who initiated the decline from point 1. At point 4, we're returning to test these now-proven market participants. The expectation: price rallies back toward the 49.00 target (28.85% gain) as bulls reclaim control from exhausted bears who are trapped at lower levels. This isn't a reversal hope - it's a spring-loaded value play where smart money has already shown their hand.
Confluences:
Confluence 1: Bullish Divergence Triple Stack (4H Timeframe)
On the 4-hour chart, we observe a powerful triple divergence setup that screams seller exhaustion. While price made a lower low from point 1 to point 4, three key indicators tell the opposite story: RSI made a higher low, MFI made a higher low, and critically, CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) made a higher low. This triple divergence is the market's way of saying "price is lying." Real money flow is shifting bullish even as price appears weak. Both RSI and MFI are deeply oversold, sitting in territory that historically marks capitulation points. The CVD higher low is particularly significant - it reveals that despite the price decline, actual buying pressure has been increasing, not decreasing. This is textbook smart money accumulation while retail sees "lower lows" and panics. AGREES ✔
Confluence 2: Anchored VWAP Institutional Footprint (4H Timeframe)
The anchored VWAP from point 1 serves as a magnetic price level that captured massive institutional attention. Price dipped below the first standard deviation and closed above it - a classic "dip and rip" institutional entry pattern. This isn't random; it's deliberate. Large players defend their VWAP deviations aggressively because that's where their average entry sits. The fact that we're seeing closes above the deviation after multiple dip tests signals that institutions have finished accumulating and are now defending their position. This VWAP anchor will act as dynamic support on any pullback and reinforces the bullish thesis. AGREES ✔
Confluence 3: Volume Profile Value Area & Gap Fill (4H/16H Timeframes)
The anchored volume profile from point 2 to point 3 reveals a critical story: we dipped under the developing Point of Control (POC) and are now attempting to reclaim it. This is significant because the POC represents the price level with the most volume - where the market found "fair value" during the prior rally. Additionally, we rejected from a gap below the Value Area Low, which is a popular rejection area that signals significant buying interest. This rejection created the "buy gap" - a vacuum zone that points to further upside as price seeks to fill higher gaps. The 16H chart shows potential White Swan harmonic pattern formation, adding another layer of geometric confluence. AGREES ✔
Confluence 4: Market Structure & Pattern Confirmation (Multiple Timeframes)
The 16H chart clearly displays a Black Swan harmonic pattern that has completed, with price currently at the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). This isn't just a random pattern - it's a mathematical price structure that occurs at significant turning points. The pattern projects targets at 161.52 (already hit), 156.36 (current area), and ultimately 207.93 (our bullish target zone). The fact that we're sitting at the 1.272 extension with multiple bullish reversal signals clustering here is textbook setup quality. The market structure shows we're at a decision point where bulls must reclaim control or risk further downside. AGREES ✔
Web Research Findings:
- Technical Analysis: BX currently trades around $168, with support levels identified at $167.51-$172.49 and resistance at $169.27-$178.11 . Technical sentiment shows 17 indicators with 8 Buy signals, 5 Sell signals, and 4 Neutral signals, suggesting a mixed but slightly bullish technical picture . RSI at 50.24 indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions , though the 4H chart tells a different story with oversold readings.
- Recent News/Earnings: BX is scheduled to report Q3 earnings on October 16, 2025, with analysts expecting $1.24 EPS, representing 22.8% year-over-year growth . The company has beaten Wall Street's bottom-line estimates in the past four consecutive quarters . Last quarter (Q2), BX reported $1.21 EPS versus $1.10 expected, beating by 11%, which drove the stock up 3.6% . Assets under management reached a record $1.2 trillion, marking 13% year-over-year growth, with strong inflows of $52 billion in Q2 alone . Fee-related earnings grew 31% year-over-year, contributing to robust distributable earnings growth of 25% .
- Analyst Sentiment: Among 22 analysts covering BX, seven recommend "Strong Buy," two suggest "Moderate Buy," 12 indicate "Hold," and one has a "Strong Sell," resulting in a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating . The average analyst price target is $182.90, indicating potential upside of 4.3% from current levels around $175 . Recent upgrades include Jefferies raising price target to $207 with a Buy rating, and Deutsche Bank raising target to $192 . UBS upgraded BX from Neutral to Buy, noting that the recent 27% price decline presents an attractive entry point .
- Data Releases & Economic Calendar: Critical catalyst: Q3 earnings announcement on October 16, 2025 before market open . This is just 12 days away from the current date. The previous quarter saw strong momentum with $211.8 billion in LTM inflows and $145.1 billion deployed . No other major economic catalysts are identified between now and earnings that would significantly impact BX specifically.
- Interest Rate Impact: Capital markets outlook suggests that with lower interest rates and modest GDP growth, M&A activity could rebound, which bodes well for Blackstone's advisory and private equity segments . The Fed's current trajectory of maintaining rates supports alternative asset managers like BX as institutional investors seek yield beyond traditional fixed income.
Layman's Summary:
Here's the simple story: Blackstone is a massive money manager ($1.2 trillion in assets) that just crushed earnings last quarter and is expected to beat again in 12 days. The stock got hammered down 27% from its highs, which actually got the attention of big investment firms who said "Hey, this is now cheap!" Several major banks just upgraded their price targets, with some as high as $207. The company is printing money - earnings grew 25% last quarter, they're managing more money than ever, and every quarter they beat expectations. The stock is sitting right at a technical support level where big buyers have been stepping in. Think of it like a coiled spring - sellers pushed it down as far as they could, and now buyers are taking control. The earnings announcement in 12 days could be the catalyst that launches this back up. The risk? If earnings disappoint, this setup fails. But with four straight quarters of earnings beats and strong business momentum, the odds favor the bulls here.
Machine Derived Information:
- Image 1 (4H Chart with Pattern): Shows HPPv13.5 harmonic pattern setup from points 1-4 with target at 49.00 (likely $169-170 area). Price is at point 4 with visible divergence notes. Notes indicate point 3 closing above point 1, establishing buyer strength, with price making lower lows while RSI/MFI/CVD making higher lows. Anchored VWAP from point 1 shows price dipping below first deviation and closing above, hinting at institutional entries. Volume profile from 2→3 shows rejection from gap below value area low, creating a buy gap pointing upside. - Significance: Primary setup visualization showing the exact battle between sellers (1→2→4) and buyers reclaiming control. The harmonic structure provides geometric price targets and the divergence pattern is textbook bullish. - AGREES ✔
- Image 2 (4H Zoomed Overview): Wider context view of same 4H setup with additional context showing overall market structure. Pattern remains intact with all annotations visible, confirming this is a multi-week consolidation pattern, not a micro-timeframe noise setup. White swan harmonic pattern potential is mentioned. - Significance: Confirms this isn't a quick scalp setup but rather a position trade setup with days-to-weeks timeframe, aligning with the earnings catalyst timeline. The white swan mention adds additional harmonic confluence. - AGREES ✔
- Image 3 (16H Black Swan Pattern): Displays Black Swan harmonic pattern on 16-hour timeframe with clear PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) at current price levels. Shows targets: T1 at 138.32, T2 at 161.52 (already achieved), Entry at 179.54, Target 1 at 156.36, Target 2 at 207.93, Stop Loss at 109.99. Pattern shows points 1-2-3-4 with current price at decision point. - Significance: Higher timeframe harmonic pattern validation is crucial - this isn't just a 4H setup in isolation. The 16H Black Swan completing at these exact levels provides major confluence. The fact that we're at the 156-138 support zone from this pattern adds weight to the reversal thesis. Target of 207 aligns perfectly with analyst targets. - AGREES ✔
- Image 4 (4H with Volume Profile): Shows detailed volume profile from August-September period with pink/cyan horizontal volume bars (anchored volume profile). Clear POC developing around the $138-145 zone with price currently testing above it. E and D labels visible marking key structural points. - Significance: Volume profile analysis reveals where institutional participants have established positions. The current price action above the POC and rejection from below value area low suggests smart money is defending this zone. This is the "large players defending the stop loss" concept - institutions are protecting their average price. - AGREES ✔
- Image 5 (4H Moving Averages): Shows black moving average bands overlaying the price structure, with red and black dynamic trend lines. Price is compressing between the MAs and the point 4 zone, setting up for a directional break. The MAs appear to be flattening, suggesting consolidation before a move. - Significance: Moving average compression is a volatility squeeze indicator. When price consolidates between MAs like this, the subsequent breakout tends to be explosive. Combined with all other confluences, this MA setup suggests the breakout will be to the upside. - AGREES ✔
- Image 6 (4H Market Structure): Clean view of the 1-2-3-4 structure with gray boxes marking key zones. Shows the progression clearly: high at 3, low at 2, current position at 4. The structure is easy to read and confirms the setup thesis - we're at the retest of proven buyers. - Significance: Simple, clean market structure visualization confirms the narrative: sellers dominated 3→4, but buyers at 2 were stronger than sellers at 1 (because 3 closed above 1). Now we're back at 4 to test if those 2-level buyers are real. This is the core thesis visualized. - AGREES ✔
Actionable Machine Summary:
The machine-derived insights paint a unified picture: this is a high-probability reversal setup with multiple timeframe alignment. The 4H timeframe provides the entry signal (triple divergence, oversold, VWAP support), while the 16H harmonic pattern provides the roadmap (targets at 207.93). The volume profile analysis confirms institutional defense of key levels, and the moving average compression suggests an imminent breakout. For trade execution: Entry can be taken at current levels ($168-169) or on a break above $170 to confirm. Stops belong below $165 (below the 16H harmonic invalidation) to below $160 for wider stops. First target: $178 (previous resistance), Second target: $182 (analyst average target), Final target: $200-207 (16H harmonic completion + analyst high targets). Risk/Reward at current levels is exceptional - risking $8-10 to make $30-40. The machine analysis shows ALL visual confluences agreeing with bullish thesis, which is rare and significant. No conflicting signals were identified across any timeframe or indicator.
Conclusion:
Trade Prediction: SUCCESS ✅
Confidence: MEDIUM-HIGH
Key Reasons for Success:
1. **Triple Divergence Power:** RSI, MFI, and CVD all making higher lows while price makes lower lows is one of the strongest bullish divergence setups possible. This is textbook smart money accumulation.
2. **Institutional Footprint:** Anchored VWAP defense, volume profile POC reclaim, and gap rejection all point to large players establishing and defending positions at these exact levels. When institutions show their hand, follow them.
3. **Earnings Catalyst:** October 16 earnings provide a clear catalyst for the move. With four consecutive beats and 22.8% expected YoY growth, the setup has a fundamental driver. Even if earnings are "just in-line," the relief rally from oversold conditions could fuel the move.
4. **Analyst Upgrades:** Multiple major banks (UBS, Jefferies, Deutsche Bank) recently upgraded BX, noting the 27% decline created value. When smart money analysts upgrade after a washout, they're often front-running institutional flows.
5. **Harmonic Pattern Confluence:** 16H Black Swan pattern completion at exact current levels provides mathematical price structure support. These patterns have statistically significant win rates when combined with other technical factors.
6. **Oversold Mean Reversion:** RSI and MFI both deeply oversold on 4H timeframe creates rubber band effect. Price naturally wants to revert to mean, especially when supported by other bullish factors.
Key Risks/Reasons for Caution:
1. **Earnings Timing Risk:** With earnings just 12 days away, any adverse news, guidance cuts, or macro concerns expressed on the call could invalidate the technical setup. Earnings volatility can gap through stops.
2. **Mixed Analyst Sentiment:** While average target is bullish, 12 out of 22 analysts have "Hold" ratings and one has "Strong Sell." This isn't unanimous bullishness - there's legitimate debate about valuation and growth trajectory.
3. **Real Estate Exposure:** BX has significant real estate holdings. Concerns about BXMT dividend sustainability and office sector weakness could weigh on sentiment, especially if mentioned negatively in earnings.
4. **Recent Technical Breakdown:** The stock issued a sell signal from a pivot top on September 18 and has fallen 6.65% since. This downtrend momentum needs to be clearly broken with volume confirmation.
5. **Broader Market Conditions:** Any macro shock, Fed surprise, or risk-off event between now and earnings could flush the stock lower regardless of technical setup. We're not trading in isolation.
Risk/Reward Assessment:
The risk/reward strongly justifies this trade. With stops at $160-165 and targets at $178-207, we're looking at 1:3 to 1:5 risk/reward ratios. Even if we only reach the conservative first target of $178, that's $10 gain risking $8, which is excellent. The probability-adjusted return is highly favorable given the multiple confluences, earnings beat history, and analyst support.
Final Recommendation: TAKE THE TRADE with Position Sizing Caution ⚖️
This is a high-quality setup with strong technical and fundamental support. However, the earnings catalyst in 12 days introduces binary risk that cannot be ignored. Recommendation:
- **Aggressive traders:** Full position at current levels ($168-169), stop at $160, targets at $178/$182/$207. Exit 30-50% at first target to lock profit before earnings.
- **Conservative traders:** Half position now, add on break above $172 with confirmed volume. Or wait until after earnings and enter on any dip-and-rip if earnings beat.
- **Risk management:** Don't risk more than 1-2% of portfolio given earnings risk. The setup is strong, but position sizing is critical when a catalyst can gap you out.
The technical setup is textbook, the fundamental story is strong, and the timing aligns with a known catalyst. This is not a "hope and pray" trade - it's a calculated bet on mean reversion backed by institutional footprints, harmonic patterns, and earnings momentum. The key is managing the binary risk appropriately with position sizing and target-taking discipline.
Expected Price Path:
- Short-term (next 3-5 days): Chop/consolidate around $168-172 as bulls build position ahead of earnings
- Earnings reaction (Oct 16): If beat → gap to $175-180, then consolidate before continuing
- Post-earnings (Oct 17-30): Rally continuation to $182-190 zone
- 4-6 weeks out: Test of $200+ if all goes well, market cooperates, and earnings deliver
Bottom Line: The sellers who dominated from point 3 to point 4 are exhausted. The buyers who showed up at point 2 are proven stronger (point 3 closed above point 1). Now we're back testing those buyers at point 4. The spring is loaded. The catalyst is coming. The odds favor the bulls. Take the trade, manage the risk, and let the setup play out. 🎯