CHAINLINK – LONG - A WHISPER BEFORE THE BREAKOUTTraders,
I believe BINANCE:LINKUSDT is quietly setting up for another leg up. Let me walk you through the logic.
HTF structure - wedge breakout and retest
Price has broken out of a HTF falling wedge that has been guiding price action for weeks. A falling wedge is a compression pattern where:
Highs and lows are both trending lower
The upper trendline is steeper than the lower one
So sellers are still in control on the surface, but every push down is getting less effective. Once price breaks above the upper wedge line with an impulsive move, it usually means:
Most of the aggressive sell pressure inside the pattern has been absorbed
New buyers are willing to chase higher outside of that structure
That is exactly what I see on $LINKUSDT.
After the breakout, price rotated back down and is currently testing an imbalance zone around 13.75. This area:
Is the origin of the last impulsive leg up
Lines up with a clean Fib potential reversal zone on the LTF
So from a pure structure point of view this is a classic breakout → retest → potential continuation setup.
Order flow - hidden bull divergence and absorption
To see if the idea is backed by real flows, I zoomed into the CVDs and open interest.
On the pullback into 13.7 to 13.8:
Aggregated CVD Spot makes lower lows
Aggregated CVD Futures (stablecoin margined and coin margined) also print lower lows
While price holds a higher low compared to the previous swing
That is a hidden bullish divergence between price and CVD. In simple language: more market selling is hitting the books, but price refuses to break down. This usually means:
Sell pressure is being absorbed by passive buyers
Strong hands are using the dip to accumulate rather than distribute
Open interest supports that idea:
Stablecoin margined OI bled lower during the pullback, which suggests late longs getting flushed and some short covering
Coin margined OI is starting to curl up from the lows, which often signals new directional positioning right where CVD is making new lows and price is holding
That combination looks more like reloading than topping.
Targets and TPO weak highs
Now to the upside magnets. On the HTF and weekly TPO I am watching a series of weak highs that have not been properly tested:
1. 19.03 area - weekly TPO weak high
Formed with very little excess on the profile
Built mostly outside RTH, so it carries less conviction
These kinds of highs often get swept for liquidity before any real reversal happens
2. 20.20 area - second weekly TPO weak high
Similar story, clean horizontal high, thin rejection
Again, not much time spent there, so it looks more like an unfinished auction than a completed top
In my view, both of these levels are liquidity pools rather than solid resistance. If the current wedge breakout plays out, I expect price to at least probe and likely run these highs. From there, my HTF roadmap looks roughly like this:
Major Target 1: sweep the 19.0 weak high and push into the 20.0 to 20.2 block
Major Target 2: extension toward the 10 October liquidation event local high, which I have marked on the chart, and beyond that into the 22.7 to 23.6 region if momentum really kicks in
I also believe that altcoins as a group are eyeing that 10 October liquidation event local high. Many charts show similar untested spikes there, so a broad alt sweep of that zone would fit nicely with this BINANCE:LINKUSDT structure.
Invalidation
No setup is complete without an invalidation. For me the idea loses its edge if:
Price accepts back inside the broken wedge, not just a wick, but clear trade and structure back under the upper wedge line
Especially if that happens with CVD rolling over and OI expanding to the downside
If we get that, it would tell me that the breakout was a trap and that the current demand at 13.7 to 13.8 was not strong enough to hold.
Until that happens, as long as price is holding above the wedge and above the imbalance, I treat this as a constructive continuation setup with unfinished business at those weekly weak highs and the October local high.
As always, the market speaks softly before it moves loudly . Listen well, Nomads.
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Abbreviation List
HTF – Higher Time Frame
LTF – Lower Time Frame
CVD – Cumulative Volume Delta
OI – Open Interest
TPO – Time Price Opportunity
PRZ – Potential Reversal Zone
RTH – Regular Trading Hours
