BTC at a Crossroad: Path to 62.5k Is Conditional-Pick Your PlayI’m sharing a possible irregular flat correction that could pull BTC toward ~62,513—only if two key trend supports break.
Note: This Elliott count differs from my main count. It’s my secondary scenario—lower conviction, but it deserves close attention because the structure is developing cleanly. This does not mean BTC is going down (it's just a watch out scenario)
The story so far
From the Nov 22, 2022 low, BTC ran a full 5-wave impulse.
Wave 3 was the extended one.
Wave 4 formed a triangle.
Wave 5 ran hotter than expected (roughly the size of Wave 3). That’s unusual, likely fueled by extreme Bollinger Band Width compression before the final push.
Why this matters: when Wave 3 extends, Wave 5 is usually shorter. It isn’t a hard rule—just a guideline—so this count stays on the board, but it’s not a high-conviction setup.
What I think is happening now
The drop and bounce look like an expanded (irregular) flat: (A) down, (B) up which was our All time high, C down.
If the pattern completes, C could target ~62,513.
Quick pattern note (irregular flat): It’s a 3–3–5 structure — A = 3 waves, B = 3 waves (often pokes above the prior high), and C = 5 waves. On this chart, A and B already printed as 3 + 3. The setup isn’t confirmed until we see C unfold as a clear 5-wave move (1-2-3-4-5). No five-wave C = no completed irregular flat.
What would confirm it (the “if/then”)
Lose the first rising trend support (≈ 109k).
Then lose the second, deeper trend support.
If both break, the path toward ~62.5k could be opening up.
Between those two lines: BTC can go sideways for a weeks—that “range box” is important.
Why the range box matters (Altseason meter)
Altcoins usually need steady BTC to fly:
BTC sideways (not spiking up or dumping).
TOTAL2 (alt mkt cap) breaks ATH.
BTC.D rolls over (dominance falls).
If these three line up, we’ve got a real altseason setup. If not, it’s noise.
Bottom line
This is a watchlist scenario, not gospel.
I’ll respect the levels: no break = no bear target.
If we range between supports, I’ll look for alt strength while BTC stays calm.
