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$ETH / Ethereum - Don't Try and Catch KnivesUpdated ETH chart and thoughts: I will wait until our weekly close to remove the demand/support weekly area near $2800 for further invalidation. I will then add a new supply/resistance area near $3000. Areas of interest for a bounce/reversal are in green. Not calling anything until I see slowed selling pressure. Don’t try and catch knives out here hoping for v shape reversal. A foundational bottom takes time to form. There will be opportunities to buy and add more.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by CryptoHotep
2
BTC - View from 02/05/2026Good evening! Today was published: 🔖 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (#JOLTS) USA 📉 Actual: 6.542M | Forecast: 7.200M | Previous: 6.928M A lower-than-expected reading, such as 6.542M for December 2025 (versus the expected 7.2M and down from the revised 6.9M in November), signals declining labor demand and potential economic weakening. This could influence #Fed interest rate decisions in several key ways: ▪️Reduced inflationary pressure: Fewer job openings often mean less competition for workers, which can slow wage growth and reduce the risk of wage-driven inflation. If the Fed sees this as evidence that inflation is under control or approaching the 2% target, it may feel more comfortable cutting rates to support growth without triggering new price spikes. ▪️Supporting employment and growth: The Fed's dual mandate includes maximum employment. A cooling labor market may raise concerns about rising unemployment or slowing hiring in the future, prompting the Fed to cut rates to stimulate borrowing, investment, and consumer spending, thereby promoting job creation. ▪️Market expectations and forward guidance: Such data often shift investor bets on the rate trajectory. For example, if this JOLTS miss aligns with other weak indicators, it could increase the probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. On the other hand, if inflation remains sticky, the Fed may hold rates or delay cuts to avoid overstimulation. Overall, such data tilts the balance toward "dovish" policy (rate cuts) rather than "hawkish" (hikes or holds), but the Fed weighs them in the context of a broader data set, including CPI, PCE inflation, and global factors. 👀 What to watch: ➡️ Nonfarm Payrolls (#NFP) – Feb 11 and Unemployment Rate – Feb 6 for January 2026: Employment growth of 60–70K jobs is expected, with unemployment at 4.4%. If the data comes in weaker than expected (fewer new jobs or rising unemployment), it will confirm the cooling trend and strengthen expectations of Fed rate cuts. ✔️ ADP National Employment Report: Already released on February 4 (yesterday). This is a private employment indicator, often preceding NFP. If it showed weak growth, that's an additional signal. 📉 Actual: 22K | Forecast: 46K | Previous: 37K ✔️ ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Shows activity in the services sector. A slowdown here would confirm the overall cooling trend. ↗️ Actual: 53.8 | Forecast: 53.5 | Previous: 53.8 ✔️ Weekly Jobless Claims: Weekly unemployment benefit claims. Rising claims would indicate a deteriorating labor market. 📉 Actual: 231K | Forecast: 212K | Previous: 209K ➡️ Employment Cost Index (#ECI) for Q4 2025: February 10. Shows wage growth. If growth slows, it will ease inflationary pressure and support the case for rate cuts. ➡️ #CPI and #PCE Inflation: January CPI – February 13, PCE – later. If inflation declines or stabilizes below 3%, it will give the Fed room to cut rates.
CME:BTC1!Long
by SinnSeed
Bitcoin monthly—Hope! The 2026 bear market in its full gloryI waited before sharing this chart to see if market conditions would improve but nothing happened. While it is extremely bearish now, I haven't lost hope, things can easily turn after sustained, really strong, bearish action. Bitcoin is now on its strongest bearish momentum in all of its history and also with five consecutive months trading in the red. This month is still early though. Bitcoin is moving at super strong support. The strongest support ever sits at $57,772, the 0.618 Fib. retracement for the bigger, broader cycle. I would call this one an unbreakable support. This zone has the candle closures from 2021, both April and November, as well as the entire consolidation period between March - October 2024. Months and months of consolidation and not a single month managed to close below this level. Two things about it: If it is challenged, a reversal of some type develops here. If it breaks, a recovery can happen after some weak action below it, similar to Q3 2022. Instead of strong bearish momentum, more like consolidation at bottom prices, like we see on the smaller altcoins. The extreme level sits at $39,172. We are using $40,000 for simplicity. If Bitcoin continues straight down, it is possible to have an early end to the bear market. If it produces a second relief rally—the move from $80,000 to $98,000 was the main one—then it can crash again to produce a final low. Conclusion After five months of bearish action, it is more likely that a very strong relief will happen next. The market is bearish though. Oversold. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
Short
by MasterAnanda
3
Bitcoin hits strongest long-term support —2021 ATH & 0.786 Fib.Bitcoin just hit its strongest support ever long-term, this is where the first reversal can happen. The support level in question sits perfectly between the high from November and April 2021. It is happening right above EMA233 weekly and also the 0.786 Fib. retracement level in relation to Bitcoin's last major bullish wave—August 2024 through October 2025. I mentioned this level yesterday at $65,000 but it is actually a range. 65K is only the 0.786 Fib. The range sits between $64,850 (can start at $63,200 if we count EMA233) to $69,000. Bitcoin so far produced a low of $66,666, right in-between these two levels and below $70,000. A major bearish development. The full size of the crash so far amounts to -47.13%. Time duration is 119 days. In 2018, Bitcoin produced a major low on the 5th of February. Here, anything goes. If the current support range were to break a new support zone becomes active between $50,000 and $60,000 short-term. With $57,777 being a major level as shown here . The bear market bottom can sit around $40,000. We still expect some sort of relief or pause before this level is reached. We still have until mid-February for wild shaky action on Bitcoin and the bigger projects. Many of the smaller projects are not duplicating what Bitcoin and Ether are doing. Those can be bought. If we consider the $98,000 high as the end of the relief rally, and Bitcoin matches the same pattern as the 2022 bear market, then a major low can be reached around late March 2026. This is a different scenario to what we've been seeing, the one were straight down happens. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
1
BITCOIN (BTC) — THE FALL HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN⚠️ THE GREAT BITCOIN REVERSAL — THE STORM NO ONE IS READY FOR ⚠️ For years, Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD climbed with the arrogance of a king convinced its throne was eternal. But every empire falls. And the chart… The chart has been whispering the truth long before anyone wanted to hear it. Today, that whisper has become a SCREAM. 📉⚡ 🔥 1. The Final Wave Has Broken — and So Has the Illusion The macro Wave 5 top is in. Perfect confluence. Perfect exhaustion. Perfect euphoria. The same pattern that ended EVERY Bitcoin mega-cycle… just printed again. This wasn’t a top. It was THE top. The moment the bull cycle let out its final breath. 💀📈 🩸 2. Smart Money Has Already Left the Building While retail celebrated “new highs,” Smart Money carved out: • Stop hunts • Liquidity grabs • Breaker blocks • Distribution ranges • A devastating SOW • And the cleanest market structure break BTC has shown since 2018 Institutions aren’t buying dips. They are offloading the mountain . The crowd doesn’t see it — yet. ⚡ 3. A Market Structure Collapse Echoing 2014, 2018 and 2021 Each cycle’s death began the same way: A gentle pullback… A sudden rejection… Then a violent swing failure , followed by the HTF structure snapping in half. That exact sequence is happening right now . This is not a correction. This is a cycle reset . 🎯 4. Fibonacci Retracements Don’t Lie — They Warn Every true macro Wave 2 in history has returned to: 🔻 0.786 🔻 0.886 🔻 1.0 – 1.618 extensions Where do they converge this time? 👇 🔮 $6,000 – $1,250 The forgotten land of 2017 mania… A level BTC has avoided for 8 years. But the cycle demands balance. And balance always returns. 🌪️ 5. Price Action Has Flipped From Confidence to Panic The candles have changed character: • Weak closes • Long tall wicks of rejection • Failed rallies • Imbalances breaking lower • Bull traps everywhere • A violent displacement to the downside This isn’t cooling off. This is unwinding. 📉 6. Market Cycle Psychology Has Entered Its Darkest Phase We just exited Euphoria. We are in Complacency. Next comes: 😨 Anxiety 😱 Fear 💀 Capitulation 🔥 Anger 🌑 Depression Only after that does a new accumulation begin. And that’s why Wave 2 is infamous. It destroys what Wave 1 built. 🚨 THE VERDICT: THE DOWNFALL IS IN MOTION — AND WE ARE EARLY From $126K to $90K was not the crash. It was merely the first spark in a forest full of dry leaves. Wave A has barely begun. Wave B will deceive. Wave C will devastate. The endgame target remains: 🎯 $1,250 – $6,000 The cycle reset. The cleanse. The opportunity of the decade — but only after the fire burns everything above it. 🔥 This is not fear. This is structure, math, psychology, liquidity, and time itself. And all of them point in the same direction. Down, Down And Down 🔥 Follow this idea to stay ahead of the next macro move. 📈 We’ll update the chart as the structure unfolds — Wave A, Wave B trap, and the full Wave C capitulation zone. 💬 Drop your thoughts below — agree or disagree, the chart will decide. 🚀 Turn on notifications so you don’t miss the next critical breakdown. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage risk and make decisions based on your own research and personal strategy. #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoAnalysis #TradingView #BTCUSD #BearMarket #ElliottWave #SmartMoney #PriceAction #MarketCycle #Fibonacci #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoCrash #CryptoWarning
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by fibcos
28
ONDO – Swing Trade Setup from Key Support ZoneONDO has now pulled back into a major support area between $0.25 and $0.29, a level that previously held as a strong demand zone. This presents a solid opportunity to ladder into a long swing trade, anticipating a potential move back toward higher resistance levels. 📈 Trade Plan: Entry Zone: $0.25 – $0.29 (ladder entries) Take Profit Targets: TP1: $0.35 – $0.45 TP2: $0.55 – $0.68 Stop Loss: Just below $0.24 We're watching for confirmation from price action and volume at this zone. If momentum builds, ONDO could push back toward those higher resistance levels. A gradual scale-in approach helps manage risk while positioning for potential upside.
Long
by Richtv_official
LINK – Retracement into Key Support | Long Spot SetupChainlink has retraced into a major support zone, offering a potential opportunity for a long spot position. This area ($8.50–$9.50) has held well in the past and could act as a base for the next leg up, especially if broader market sentiment improves. 🛠 Strategy Setup: Entry (Ladder In): $8.50 – $9.50 Take Profit Targets: TP1: $11.00 – $12.00 TP2: $13.00 – $14.00 Stop Loss: Below $8.00 (to manage downside risk) The idea here is to accumulate gradually (laddering) within the support zone, not all at once. This helps manage timing risk and smooths out entry price. If bulls return, we could see a push toward key resistance clusters around $11–$14.
Long
by Richtv_official
BTC triple major supportSET:BTS has arrived at the weekly 200EMA, S1 weekly pivot and major High Volume Node on weekly RSI oversold. Weekly bearish divergence has now played out. Price could go lower but this s High probability major bottom area. Wave 4 is likely to finish around the .382 Fibopnacci retracement form the 2022 bottom to 125k. This has only ever happened 3 times with a 500%+ rally afterwards. Sentiment is the worst it ever been for the longest at extreme fear, 11. Safe trading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Maddox_Metrics
BTCUSD: bounce setup from 70K🛠 Technical Analysis: On the H4 chart, BTCUSD remains in a broader bearish phase after the marked “global bearish signal”. Moving averages confirm the downtrend: price is below the SMA 50/100/200 cluster. At the same time, BTC is now pressing into the long-term support band near 70,000 , where a short-term stabilization and bounce becomes more likely. The current structure suggests a potential relief move if buyers reclaim the nearby pivot and hold above it. A confirmation above 72,736 would strengthen the bounce scenario toward the next upside objective around 77,122. Failure to defend the 70,000 base increases the risk of continuation lower and invalidates the corrective-long idea. ——————————————— ❗️ Trade Parameters (BUY) ——————————————— ➡️ Entry Point: Buy on confirmation above 72,736.05 🎯 Take Profit: 77,121.79 🔴 Stop Loss: 68,422.21 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a potential trade idea based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Trade8Eight
Why Market ChangesMarkets change because participation changes. Price is not driven by patterns. It is driven by order flow, liquidity conditions, and shifting incentives across timeframes. When those inputs change, the behaviour of the chart changes with them. The same strategy can look flawless for weeks and then feel unusable, not because the market became random, but because the environment that supported the edge is no longer present. One driver is liquidity. Crypto liquidity is not stable. Depth increases during overlap sessions and dries up during dead zones. When liquidity is thick, moves are cleaner, levels respect more often, and retests tend to hold. When liquidity thins, spreads widen, stops get tagged more frequently, and structure becomes less reliable on lower timeframes. Many traders call this manipulation. It is often just a liquidity problem. Another driver is volatility regime. Volatility expands when uncertainty rises, new information enters, or leverage builds and gets forced out. Volatility compresses when participation slows and the market waits for fuel. Strategies that rely on tight invalidation distance struggle during expansion because candle ranges widen and execution becomes less precise. Strategies that rely on momentum struggle during compression because price rotates without follow-through. A strategy does not stop working. It becomes mismatched with the regime. Market phase also matters. Trends, ranges, and transitions behave differently because the market is doing different work. Trends move between liquidity pools with momentum. Ranges build inventory and sweep both sides repeatedly. Transitions are messy because control is shifting and both sides are active. Traders lose most money in transitions because they apply trend logic to a market that is no longer trending. Timeframe alignment is another source of change. A clean intraday trend can exist inside a higher timeframe range. A strong lower timeframe breakout can occur while the higher timeframe is still completing a liquidity objective in the opposite direction. When timeframes are aligned, trades feel easy. When timeframes conflict, trades feel like constant stop hunts. Finally, participants adapt. When one side becomes crowded, the market seeks the liquidity created by that crowd. Retail tends to chase clean breakouts and obvious levels. Larger participants use those obvious levels to fill positions. As positioning shifts, the market shifts with it. Price changes behaviour because the incentives behind price change. The practical takeaway is simple: your job is not to predict direction. Your job is to diagnose environment before you execute. Liquidity conditions, volatility regime, market phase, and timeframe alignment should decide whether you trade aggressively, trade selectively, or stay flat. Consistency comes from adapting exposure to conditions, not forcing the same behaviour onto every chart.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SamDrnda
5
GBPUSD Next MoveGBPUSD is respecting a clean bullish market structure after the impulsive breakout above the mid-range resistance cluster and is now pulling back into a confluence demand zone aligned with previous structure, Fibonacci retracement, and liquidity sweep behavior, which signals a classic breakout and retest continuation pattern rather than reversal. Price holding above this support band shows buyers defending higher lows, keeping bullish momentum intact and positioning the pair for continuation toward the upper resistance region if the zone holds. Fundamentally, pound strength is being supported by relatively sticky UK inflation expectations and a Bank of England stance that remains cautious about aggressive rate cuts, while the US dollar side is facing pressure from softer growth signals and shifting Federal Reserve rate path expectations, reducing yield advantage and favoring risk-on currency flows. This combination of bullish price action structure, demand zone reaction, higher timeframe trend continuation, and shifting monetary policy expectations creates a strong probability environment for upside expansion, making pullbacks into support technically attractive within a trend-following strategy focused on momentum, liquidity, and smart money positioning.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
1
BTC Outlook / Breakdown and Retest SetupBitcoin saw an impulsive breakdown after failing to hold the prior consolidation range. Once acceptance was established below the mid-range, downside momentum expanded quickly, leaving price stretched relative to recent structure. The yellow and green levels above represent prior support and value areas where price previously spent time consolidating. These zones are now likely candidates for a retest from below, should relief or short-covering occur. From a structural perspective, a move back into those levels would not invalidate the current bearish leg. Instead, it would be consistent with a breakdown and retest scenario, where former support acts as resistance. As long as price remains below those zones, the broader bias stays to the downside. Any upside reaction into that area should be evaluated on acceptance and follow-through, not assumed strength. For now, momentum favors continuation, while the yellow and green zones define the most important areas to watch for a potential reaction or rejection.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by tomas_jntx
BTCUSDT: Fake Breakout From Support Signals Potential Long SetupHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup. Market Analysis BTCUSDT previously traded within a large symmetrical triangle, where price was gradually compressing between the triangle resistance and support lines. This phase reflected market indecision and liquidity buildup, with neither buyers nor sellers in full control. Eventually, price broke out to the upside, confirming bullish intent and leading to a range expansion, where BTC consolidated within a well-defined range before continuing higher. After topping out near the range high, market structure shifted into a clear downward channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows, signaling short-term bearish control and corrective pressure. Price respected the descending channel boundaries well, confirming an orderly pullback rather than a panic sell-off. Currently, BTC is trading back above the support zone, reclaiming the key level that previously acted as a decision point. This recovery suggests that the breakdown was liquidity-driven rather than a genuine bearish continuation. My Scenario & Strategy My primary scenario favors a long continuation, as long as BTCUSDT holds above the 74,500 Support Zone and continues to defend this reclaimed structure. The fake breakout below support significantly strengthens the bullish case, as it indicates trapped sellers and potential fuel for a rebound. From a structural perspective, the recent decline appears corrective within a broader bullish context rather than the start of a new bearish trend. As long as price remains above support, pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities rather than signs of weakness. The first upside objective lies near the 78,300 Resistance Zone, which previously acted as strong resistance and aligns with prior breakdown levels. A successful break and acceptance above this resistance would confirm bullish continuation and open the door for a deeper recovery toward higher supply levels. However, a decisive breakdown and acceptance back below the support zone would invalidate the long scenario and signal renewed bearish continuation. In that case, price could revisit lower demand areas. For now, structure favors buyers, with the fake breakout and strong reclaim of support suggesting that downside momentum is weakening. Price reaction around support will remain critical in determining the next directional move. That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Ratner
48
EURUSD Is At Strong SupportEURUSD is showing a strong structural bullish setup after reclaiming the key horizontal zone that previously acted as resistance and has now flipped into support, with current price action forming a tight holding pattern above that level rather than rolling over. The way price respected that demand area and stalled around it reflects accumulation and structural higher lows, signaling buyers are still in control, and this enhances the probability of continuation toward higher targets once global risk sentiment stabilizes. From a fundamental view, the euro has been supported by resilient eurozone macro data and relative stabilization in monetary expectations, while the US dollar has faced persistent pressure from softer inflation components, shifting rate cut expectations, and a dovish tilt creeping back into Fed pricing — all of which are key drivers behind the bullish narrative in the pair. Technically this aligns with breakout retest dynamics and trend continuation forces, so as long as EURUSD holds above the support level and maintains bullish structure, the higher probability scenario remains upside continuation rather than reversal, offering a clean trend-aligned opportunity for disciplined traders.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
Bitcoin Weekly – Bearish Continuation Thesis (Higher Time Frame)Note / Preface: This publication focuses on higher-timeframe (weekly) structure and macro justification. Additional Fibonacci levels, minor supply/demand zones, and other references mentioned in the text but not shown on the chart exist on lower timeframes and are intentionally omitted to preserve clarity. The chart displays only the most pertinent macro levels used to frame the higher-timeframe thesis and potential decision areas. Thesis: This thesis is based on higher-timeframe structure, trend, and auction behavior using the weekly chart. Following the ATH, BTC rejected the golden pocket (≈107–110k), overlapping a major supply zone, and formed a weak corrective channel that resolves as a bear flag. The retracement failed near the 0.5 level, with repeated rejection from supply at 90–93k. No weekly candles accepted above the channel midpoint, suggesting persistent seller control rather than accumulation. Momentum confirms the structure. Weekly RSI remains in a bear regime (below the EMA and the 50 midpoint), and rallies continue to behave as corrective rather than impulsive. The measured move from the bear flag pole (thick vertical yellow lines) projects toward ~62k, aligning with a large multi-cycle supply/demand zone (≈53–63k), the rising 200-week SMA (yellow dotted line), and the 0.382 retracement of the Nov 2022 low to ATH (~57.7k). Notably, the anchored VWAP (brown/orange line) from the 2022 low currently sits near the top of this zone (~63k), making it a likely area for long-duration participant defense and a potential reaction. A bullish Cypher harmonic is tracking toward completion near this region. Harmonic completion is expected to produce a reaction, not necessarily a reversal—either a short-covering bounce followed by a back-test, or a deeper liquidity sweep within the zone. MACD histogram divergence supports the potential for a counter-trend reaction but does not override bearish structure without acceptance and regime change. From a trend-following perspective, moving-average behavior is consistent with a late Stage 3 / Stage 4 environment under Stan Weinstein’s framework, reinforcing a bearish-until-invalidated bias. The bearish thesis remains intact unless BTC reclaims 90–93k with acceptance and exits the RSI bear regime. The 53–63k zone is viewed as a high-probability reaction and reassessment area, not a hard target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by HotsauceShoTYME
#AAVE Bears Ready For Further Downside | Must Watch For Bears Yello Paradisers! Are you watching what’s unfolding on #AAVEUSDT right now? Because if you’re not, this could catch you completely off guard. There’s a potential bearish breakdown brewing that could send #AAVE into much deeper territory. Let’s dive in before it's too late: 💎#AAVE has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle, caught between a descending resistance and ascending support. Each test of the upper boundary has been weaker, showing fading bullish momentum. Now, we’re pressing against the lower support line with sellers gaining control. 💎The current price is $222, and we’re right on the edge. A confirmed breakdown below the ascending support will flip the entire structure bearish. The 50 EMA is now acting as resistance, reinforcing this downward pressure and aligning with the broader setup. 💎If this bearish scenario confirms, the next downside target becomes the Support Zone around $195–180, but the real liquidity lies deeper. A sharp move could easily send #AAVEUSD into the Strong Demand Zone between $133–123, where we expect stronger buyers to finally show up. 💎However, this setup is invalidated if #AAVE breaks back above the Resistance Zone at $263. That would signal strength and likely trigger a fast bullish reversal targeting higher levels above $280. Trade smart, Paradisers. This setup will reward only the disciplined. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Short
by MyCryptoParadise
3