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CVNA

Running out of fuel? Short CVNA──────────────────────── WAVE 1 (40 → 270) ──────────────────────── Why it passes: • Strong, impulsive advance • Establishes a clear directional trend • No overlapping or corrective structure at the start Supporting evidence: • Large extension from the base (~40 → 270) • Clean upward structure with expanding volume • Fits the behavior of a Wave 1 inside a larger uptrend • Breaks major resistance from prior range with force ──────────────────────── WAVE 2 (270 → 147) ──────────────────────── Why it passes: • Deep retracement but does NOT violate Wave 1 origin (40) • Retraces more than 50% (common for Wave 2) • Corrective structure (choppy, overlapping) consistent with EW rules Supporting evidence: • Pullback is proportional to the size of Wave 1 • Structure is slow and corrective, not impulsive • Creates the setup for a powerful Wave 3 • Price remains well above the Wave 1 start → rule preserved ──────────────────────── WAVE 3 (147 → 410) ──────────────────────── Why it passes: • Wave 3 must NOT be the shortest impulse → here it is the longest • Must break above the Wave 1 peak → rises well beyond 270 • Must be impulsive → strong directional movement without major overlap Supporting evidence: • Largest price expansion of all waves • Clean, powerful impulse characteristic of a Wave 3 • Strong upward momentum across indicators • Represents the “longest and strongest” leg in the sequence • Excellent symmetry relative to Wave 1 ──────────────────────── WAVE 4 (410 → ~350) ──────────────────────── Why it passes: • Does NOT overlap Wave 1 top at 270 (major rule) • Shallow retracement after an extended Wave 3 • Alternates behavior with Wave 2 (EW guideline: alternation) Supporting evidence: • Correction is sideways/choppy rather than deep (opposite of Wave 2) • Retracement is measured and controlled • Simple corrective structure typical of Wave 4 • Stays safely above 270 → non-overlap rule intact ──────────────────────── WAVE 5 (350 → 470+) (Currently in progress or topping now) ──────────────────────── Why it passes: • Moves beyond Wave 3 peak (410) → required • Exhibits typical Wave 5 characteristics: exhaustion, wedge, divergence • Completes a clean 5-wave internal structure Supporting evidence: • Parabolic blowoff rally into wedge resistance • RSI + MFI bearish divergence — classic Wave 5 termination signal • Bollinger band overextension • Volume declining on the final push • Price action becomes vertical and unstable → end of trend behavior Summary - EW is valid The structure passes ALL primary Elliott Wave rules: • Wave 2 does not break Wave 1 origin • Wave 3 is not the shortest and exceeds Wave 1’s high • Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1 • Wave 5 extends beyond Wave 3 • Waves alternate corrections (deep Wave 2, shallow Wave 4) • Momentum and divergence support a Wave 5 top Where do we go from here- Wave A TBD usually retraces 23.6%–38.2% of the full impulse. Targets: A1 (shallow): 380–400 • Minor reaction low • Retest of Wave 4 pivot A2 (common): 350–360 • Strong support • Matches prior Wave 4 zone (very common target) • First major liquidity pocket A3 (deep A wave): 320–330 • Tests the mid-level between W3 peak and W4 low • Strong support cluster
NYSE:CVNAShort
by LDAKyle
1
CVNA - Stinky Fish Short SetupAs can be seen from past analyses of CVNA, they have rarely played out as expected. And yet – this time too, I will be trading CVNA short. Why again? Because it’s a setup that follows the rules of the Forks. Setups are one part of a system. Just one part – nothing more. A setup has a statistical probability of generating a profit. But this probability only works if we play it as often as possible. It’s like the lottery: if you don’t play, you can’t win. And just when you don’t play, you would have won ;-) OK – in the lottery, the odds are inversely against the player. This setup, however, has a positive expectancy. And that’s why I will also initiate a short this time. Here are the triggers: At (1) we see that the market suffered a sharp sell-off at a confluence point. This didn’t happen for no reason! At least from the perspective of technical analysis, specifically the rules of forks, the market reached an upper extreme – the U-MLH. In addition, we also see one of the fork rule-book patterns occurring: "If the market closes outside the fork, we can expect a test/retest back to the line." Here, the yellow fork is meant: The market opens and closes outside the L-MLH, reverses, and promptly tests the L-MLH before continuing down in the breakout direction. So: a) Yellow fork test/retest after breaking out of the fork b) Reaching the U-MLH and sharp sell-off = Short setup The natural target is the equilibrium – the center-line (PTG1). And another target for me, based on my experience, is the 1/4 line (PTG2) if the market breaks the CL. I will execute my entry on a daily basis, possibly with options or a combination with the underlying. Wishing you all much success!
NYSE:CVNAShort
by HowToChart
2
CVNA EARNINGS TRADE IDEA — July 30 (AMC) ## 🚗 CVNA EARNINGS TRADE IDEA — July 30 (AMC) **Carvana (CVNA)** 📊 **Bullish Confidence**: 85% 📈 **Earnings Play Setup** 💣 Big Volatility + Strong History = Explosive Potential --- ### ⚙️ FUNDAMENTALS SNAPSHOT ✅ **Revenue Growth**: +38.3% YoY 🔁 **8/8 EPS Beats** (114.5% avg surprise) 🟡 **Profit Margin**: 2.7% (Thin but improving) ⚠️ **Debt-to-Equity**: 344.78 (High leverage risk) 💬 **Sector Rotation**: Growth favors high-beta names 💡 **Beta**: 3.60 → Big post-earnings swings likely --- ### 📊 OPTIONS FLOW HEATMAP 🔥 Heavy Call Volume @ \$360–\$370 🟢 Bullish OI Stack 📉 Put/Call Skew: CALL DOMINANT 💥 IV Elevated = Lotto ticket pricing --- ### 📈 TECHNICALS 💵 Price: \$336.50 🧱 Resistance: \$343.68 📉 RSI: 44.5 (Neutral – Room to Run) 📊 200D MA: \$252.21 → Long-term bullish positioning --- ### 🔥 TRADE IDEA: **CVNA 08/01 \$360 CALL** 🎯 **Entry**: \$11.25 🚀 **Target**: \$33.75 (200% ROI) 🛑 **Stop**: \$5.60 📊 **Size**: 1 contract ⏰ **Entry Timing**: Pre-Earnings Close (AMC play) --- ### 📉 RISK / REWARD * 🟥 Max Loss: \$11.25 * 🟩 Profit Target: \$33.75 * ⚖️ RR Ratio: 1:3 * 💼 Portfolio Risk: 2–3% --- ### 🧠 STRATEGY INSIGHTS ✅ Historical beat rate = STRONG ✅ Bullish options skew = CONFIRMED ⚠️ High debt = risk, but momentum > fear 📌 Tip: If IV crushes post-earnings, exit fast. This is a *structured speculative play* — not a hold-and-hope. --- 📢 "Speculation is fine. Structure it." 💬 Tag a trader who *YOLOs with stop losses* 👇 \#CVNA #EarningsPlay #OptionsTrading #TradingView #HighBeta #LottoPlay #RiskManaged #CallOptions #BullishSetup #IVCrushProof #EcommerceStocks #EarningsSeason
NYSE:CVNALong
by quantsignals
Carvana Leading Auto Retail – Outpacing LAD & AN-Financial Performance & Momentum: Carvana reported a record-breaking adjusted EBITDA of $488M in Q1 2025, up $253M YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 11.5% (+3.8pp YoY). The company's strong operational efficiency positions it as a leader in the auto retail industry, nearly doubling the margins of competitors like Lithia Motors (LAD) and AutoNation (AN). - Competitive Positioning & Growth Outlook: Carvana’s EBITDA quality is superior due to lower non-cash expenses, enhancing long-term sustainability. The company expects sequential EBITDA growth in Q2 and targets 13.5% EBITDA margins within 5-10 years. -Peer Comparison: - Lithia Motors (LAD): EBITDA margin at 4.4% (up from 4% YoY), facing tariff-related headwinds that could impact pricing and demand. - AutoNation (AN): SG&A as a percentage of gross profit rose to 67.5% in Q1, expected to stay between 66-67% in FY 2025, pressuring margins further. -Options Flow & Institutional Activity - Key Levels: $350/$370 Recent institutional flow activity indicates strong positioning around $350/$370 strikes, potentially signaling a vertical spread in play rather than outright selling: 1️⃣ Momentum Confirmation: - CVNA has strong upside momentum following its Q1 results, reinforcing a bullish outlook for near-term price action. - Institutional traders may be accumulating bullish vertical spreads rather than unwinding positions. Vertical Spread Setup ($350/$370 Strikes) - Long Call ($350 Strike) → Signals expectations for further upside. - Short Call ($370 Strike) → Caps max profit while reducing cost. - Breakeven Price: $359 → CVNA must close above $359 for profitability. Profit & Risk Zones - Above $370: Maximum profit achieved. - Between $359-$370: Partial profit zone (spread remains in play). - Below $359: Spread loses value, making recovery dependent on extended upside momentum.
NYSE:CVNALong
by Wiiso
CVNA Swing Trade Plan – Bearish Breakdown (June 13, 2025)🛑 CVNA Swing Trade Plan – Bearish Breakdown (June 13, 2025) 📉 Setup Summary: CVNA is flashing strong bearish momentum across 15-minute and daily charts, confirmed by multiple AI models. Although slightly oversold in the short term, the overall directional thesis remains intact: downside toward $293–$295 seems likely in the coming sessions. 🔍 Multi-Model Technical Consensus Trend: Bearish across 15-min and daily; weakening on weekly Momentum: MACD bearish, RSI near oversold but no bullish divergence Volume: Spike on red candles confirms seller strength Support/Resistance Zones:  • Resistance: $310–$320  • Support: $292–$295 Max Pain: $320 (may act as a temporary gravitational pull on bounce) 🧠 AI Model Signals ✅ Grok/xAI: $310 PUT — bearish, aligns with max pain retrace ✅ Llama/Meta: $300 PUT — short-term continuation ✅ Gemini/Google: $280 PUT — deep OTM swing toward structural support ✅ DeepSeek: $305 PUT — best balance between liquidity, risk/reward, and chart structure 🧩 Conclusion: Slight preference for the $305 PUT for its technical alignment and capital efficiency. 📈 Trade Recommendation 🔻 Strategy: Buy Naked PUT Ticker: CVNA Strike: $305 Expiry: 2025-06-27 Entry: At market open Target Entry Price: $10.50 Profit Target: $15.75 (+50%) Stop-Loss: $7.35 (–30%) Confidence: 75% ⚠️ Risk Considerations Short-Term Bounce Risk: Extremely oversold 15m RSI might trigger intraday upticks Macro Reversal: Broader market rally or surprise CVNA news could invalidate the bearish thesis Premium Sensitivity: CVNA is volatile; strict stop-loss adherence is key Max Pain Risk: Reversion to $320 could neutralize gains quickly 💬 Swing traders — what’s your play here? Do you ride the momentum lower, or is this oversold enough to fade? Drop your take 👇 and follow for daily AI-backed trade setups.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by quantsignals
$CVNA - 260CallHi all, My ai pinged me suggesting a 260 Call expiring around the 6'th of June on CVNA. This model's performance is not terrible, but i;m not comfortable listening to my own AI which is suggesting to buy a call literally just before earnings. 2.6 Sharpe isn't bad but it's no 3.6 meaning it's not a guaranteed win. imgur.com I am more keen on seeing whether the AI right or wrong and letting you guys know about the trade. Now my AI also suggests that other CAR sector related stocks may experience moves as well, maybe more than CVNA itself. Unfortunately i do not know which ones those are. I just know the CAR sector good.
NYSE:CVNALong
by leenixusu
5
Carvana - More Fish To Come? You Bet!After the first post about CVNA, I bailed out on a small loss (see linked Chart). But then Immediately loaded Puts and had a good "Steak & Lobster" time §8-) Price behaves like textbook when we consult the Medianlines trading framework and rule set. First price reached the red Centerline, followed by the expected pullback to the white Lower-Medianline-Parallel. If the "Fish" can't manage to jump back into the white Fork, then I expect much more downside to come. If this is the case, we have two good looking PTG's at PTG1 & PTG2. To me, this Scam Company (see my first post) is done. It's just a matter of time. For the longer time frame, I will check out ITM LEAP-Puts and let them profit from the ride to the south. And for short term trades, I just wait for pullbacks as it did now, and take it short to finance some of my LEAPs, Dinner and Weekend Holidays. Isn't it nice, how we can find good even in bad? §8-) May the Fish be with us!
NYSE:CVNAShort
by HowToChart
1
Carvana's Fundamentals And Chart Screeming For A ShortFrom a very well known Short-Seller in the markets I read a concerning letter this morning: "Carvana Trades At An 845% Higher Sales Multiple Than Online Car Peers Like CarMax and AutoNation, And A 754% Premium On A Forward Earnings Basis." ...ummmhh... §8-() The Chart does look very scary too. This exponential move can't sustain very long. As we see, the first bounce already alerts me to prepare for a big short. If this plays out as projected, we see a heavy dump in the coming weeks and months.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by HowToChart
2
Major Price Movement Incoming for CVNA!Signalist has detected a precise pattern in NYSE:CVNA trading activity, signaling that a substantial price movement is imminent. This isn’t a random fluctuation—it’s a carefully analyzed precursor to a significant market event. 📅 What to Expect: ⌛ Timeline: Anticipate a major move within the next 1 to 4 upcoming 3-hour candles. 📈 Monitor the Charts: Keep an eye on CVNA’s price action over the next few candles. Prepare Your Strategy: Whether you’re bullish or bearish, have your trading plan ready to capitalize on the move.
NYSE:CVNA
by UnknownUnicorn77606122
CVNA Carvana Sell-Off: Hindenburg Research Short PositionIf you haven`t bought CVNA at $25: Carvana Stock Now Faces Major Risks: A Price Target of $127 Carvana Co. (CVNA), currently trading at $199, faces mounting scrutiny after allegations from Hindenburg Research. The short-seller’s report, titled “Carvana: A Father-Son Accounting Grift for the Ages,” accuses the company of unsustainable growth fueled by lax underwriting standards and questionable insider dealings. Key Concerns: Insider Selling: CEO Ernest Garcia III and his father, Ernie Garcia II, sold $3.6 billion in stock between 2020-2021, with an additional $1.4 billion sold last year after a 284% stock surge. Loan Portfolio Risks: Claims suggest Carvana approves nearly all loan applicants, increasing exposure to subprime defaults as economic conditions tighten. DriveTime Transactions: Allegations of inflated revenues through sales to DriveTime, owned by Garcia II, raise conflict-of-interest concerns. Manipulated Results: Extensions on subprime loans reportedly delay delinquencies, misrepresenting financial health. Outlook: While the stock has shown resilience, we believe these risks significantly outweigh the rewards. With questionable accounting practices and a vulnerable loan portfolio, our price target is $127.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by TopgOptions
1
Carvana (CVNA) AnalysisCompany Overview: Carvana, a leader in the online used car market, is transforming its business model following its acquisition of ADESA's U.S. physical auction business in 2022. This acquisition has positioned Carvana as the second-largest used car company in the U.S. and is driving a shift towards a more profitable marketplace model. Key Highlights: Strategic Acquisition: The acquisition of ADESA's auction business is expected to enhance Carvana's profitability by transitioning towards a marketplace model, which offers higher margins compared to its traditional retail operations. Competitive Advantage: Carvana outperforms competitors like CarMax and AutoNation in terms of gross margin and profit per unit, bolstered by its strong online platform. Cost Efficiency: The company has successfully reduced over $1.1 billion in annual selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, demonstrating a commitment to improving operational efficiency. Financial Flexibility: Carvana secured a deal with creditors to extend loan maturities, providing the company with greater financial flexibility to navigate future challenges. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on NYSE:CVNA above the $116.00-$118.00 range. Upside Potential: With an upside target of $230.00-$240.00, investors should consider Carvana's strategic shift, competitive advantages, and improved financial flexibility as key drivers for potential stock appreciation. 📈🚗 Carvana is driving towards profitability—consider it for a potentially lucrative investment opportunity! #CVNA #UsedCars 🚗🚀
NYSE:CVNALong
by Richtv_official