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Cycleanalysis

FractalCycles at Work: Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)This chart highlights the dominant 62-period cycle currently steering short-term swings in the U.S. Dollar Index. Price has been respecting the rhythm of this cycle, with recent highs and lows forming close to the projected turning points. At the moment, DXY is trading near a potential cycle peak, and with the next downward phase approaching, the probability of a short-term pullback increases. Momentum indicators are also softening, offering further confirmation of cycle pressure beginning to turn. Takeaway: The 62-period cycle continues to provide reliable structure for timing DXY’s shorter-term movements. If the pattern persists, traders should be prepared for a potential downswing as the next cycle trough unfolds.
TVC:DXYShort
by Kenayi
1
$Gold Technical Analysis October 2025 📊 #GOLDUSD Update 🔑 Key Zones PRZ: $4,371 (Gold stopped nicely at $4,381!) Local Support Zone: $4,180–$4,050 Holding this range can send Gold soaring again toward: ➡️ $4,500 → $4,750 → $5,200 If these supports are lost, → next downside zones are: ➡️ $3,950 → $3,850 → $3,750 📅 Timeframe & View Short-term: Gold trading between $4,180–$4,050 — key range before the next big leg. Long-term: ATH projection levels: 💎 $5,300 → $5,700 → $7,300 → $7,700 These correspond with critical years for the global cycle: 2025 (Oct–Nov) performance 2027 2031 2033 Every pullback in this decade-long uptrend remains a buy opportunity. ⚖️ Gold or BTC? For the short term, my focus shifts to BTC. But once that phase completes, I’ll move back to Gold for the long wave. 💰 Long-Term Holders For those holding gold long-term (1 year+): Any pullback below $3750 remains a strong buy zone for adding. ✅ Quick Recap 📍 PRZ hit: $4,371–$4,381 🛡 Support: $4,180–$4,050 🚀 Upside Targets: $4,500–$4,750–$5,200 ⚠️ Downside Risk: $3,950–$3,850–$3,750 🧭 Cycle Years: 2025, 2027, 2031, 2033 💰 Focus: Short-term BTC → Long-term Gold 🧭 Personal Trading Note I only trade Gold in the real market, and use the demo setup here purely for tracking and study. ⚓ Renzo Tip “When the tide turns, the wise trader doesn’t fight it — he rides one wave, then waits for the next.” 🤲 Prayer May Allah bless us with patience in the long waves, wisdom in every entry, and reward us with clarity in both gold and time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by HamadaMark
4
Market Psychology: Gold vs Bitcoin - Where We Really Are🧠 The Psychology Test That Changes Everything Here's a simple test that will tell you everything about where TVC:GOLD and IG:BITCOIN is in its cycle: Look at these two charts. Which one screams "bull market euphoria"? ──────────────────────────────────── Chart One 🥇 TVC:GOLD : A Textbook Bull Market Current Price: $4,000.92 Peak Price: $4,390 (Recently hit) RSI: 69.15 Phase: EUPHORIA → COMPLACENCY (Post-peak pullback) What the Psychology Chart Shows: Looking at FOREXCOM:XAUUSD price action overlaid with the Wall Street Cheat Sheet: ✅ Clean parabolic structure - No ambiguity ✅ Multiple phases completed - Hope → Optimism → Belief → Thrill → Euphoria ✅ Peak already hit at $4,390 - The pink Euphoria circle was touched ✅ Now pulling back from peak - Classic post-euphoria behavior ✅ RSI cooling from overbought - Down from 85+ to 69.15 ✅ Volume still elevated as reality sets in This is what a COMPLETED bull market looks like. When you see this chart, you don't second-guess. You don't wonder "is this a bull market?" You KNOW it is. ──────────────────────────────────── Chart Two ₿ IG:BITCOIN : Still in Early Stages Current Price: $101,802.2 RSI: 44.61 Phase: OPTIMISM (not even Belief yet) What the Psychology Chart Shows: Looking at INDEX:BTCUSD price action overlaid with the Wall Street Cheat Sheet: ⚠️ "We are here" marker - Sitting in the OPTIMISM phase ⚠️ Haven't reached Belief yet - The green zone is still ahead ⚠️ Thrill phase - Blue circle far above current price ⚠️ Euphoria phase - Pink circle even further away ⚠️ RSI at 44.61 - Not even close to overbought ⚠️ Fourth Halving marker - April 22, 2024 clearly noted This is what mid-cycle consolidation looks like. ──────────────────────────────────── 🔍 The Critical Difference Let me use an analogy: Think of market cycles like a marathon. FOREXCOM:GOLD (Chart 1): Mile 26 - Just crossed finish line - Race is over, starting to cool down Runners are slowing down after sprint (Post-euphoria) Crowd peaked, now dispersing (Volume still high but declining) Everyone saw the finish (Peak at $4,390) Now wondering if they should have sprinted harder CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Chart 2): Mile 8 of 26 - Still early in the race Runners are fresh and steady (Optimism) Crowd is watching but not cheering wildly yet Most people aren't even at the venue yet Many spectators think the race might be cancelled ──────────────────────────────────── 📊 Side-by-Side Psychology Comparison ──────────────────────────────────── 🎯 What This Tells Us About IG:BITCOIN If COINBASE:BTCUSD were truly at a cycle top, it would look like CAPITALCOM:GOLD : ❌ Parabolic vertical moves ❌ RSI pinned above 75 for weeks ❌ Volume exploding ❌ Everyone saying "Bitcoin to $500K" ❌ Taxi drivers asking about crypto ❌ Magazine covers everywhere ❌ No doubt whatsoever about the trend But OANDA:BTCUSD looks nothing like that: ✅ Choppy consolidation ✅ RSI in neutral zone (44.61) ✅ Volume moderate ✅ Everyone asking "Is the bull market over?" ✅ Retail despair and fear ✅ Zero mainstream coverage ✅ Maximum doubt about the trend ──────────────────────────────────── 💡 The Psychology Principle Here's the key insight from behavioral finance: **"If you have to ask whether you're in a bubble, you're not in a bubble."** TVC:GOLD : No one is asking if TVC:GOLD is in a bull market. It's obvious. IG:BITCOIN : Everyone is asking if IG:BITCOIN is in a bull market. That's your answer. ──────────────────────────────────── 🧩 Where Each Asset Really Is TVC:GOLD - Post-Peak Bear Market Transition: Completed Phases: ✅ Hope (Oct '23 - May '24) ✅ Optimism (May '24 - Dec '24) ✅ Belief (Dec '24 - May '25) ✅ Thrill (May '25 - Sep '25) ✅ EUPHORIA - PEAKED at $4,390 (Oct '2025) Current Phase: 🔶 COMPLACENCY - "It'll come back to $4,390" Price: $4,000.92 (down ~9% from peak) Classic post-euphoria denial behavior What's Next: Anxiety → Denial → Panic → Capitulation (2026+) Time Remaining: Bull market is OVER - bear phase beginning ──────────────────────────────────── KRAKEN:BTCUSD - Early-Mid Bull Market: Completed Phases: ✅ Hope (2023 - Post-FTX recovery) 🟡 OPTIMISM (Current - 2024-2025) Phases Still Ahead: ⬜ Belief ⬜ Thrill ⬜ Euphoria What's Next: Break into Belief phase → Thrill → Euphoria Time Remaining: Given CRYPTOCAP:BTC high volatile nature - 2-6 months of upside potential ──────────────────────────────────── 🎨 The Visual Test (Do This Right Now) Step 1: Look at the TVC:GOLD chart Does it look like a bull market? YES Could you be wrong? NO Is there any doubt? ZERO Step 2: Look at the IG:BITCOIN chart Does it look like a bull market? MAYBE? Could you be wrong? POSSIBLY Is there any doubt? TONS Step 3: Ask yourself **"Would a cycle TOP have this much doubt and fear?"** The answer is NO. ──────────────────────────────────── 📈 What the RSI Divergence Tells Us TVC:GOLD RSI Pattern: Peaked above 85 during euphoria Currently cooling at 69.15 Rolling over from overbought Classic post-peak behavior This is bear market transition IG:BITCOIN RSI Pattern: Sitting at 44.61 Plenty of room to run Not even approaching overbought Recent "Bear" signals flushing out This is early-cycle behavior Think of it like a gas tank: TVC:GOLD : Hit redline at $4,390, now coasting down on fumes IG:BITCOIN : 45% full, tons of room to run ──────────────────────────────────── 🔥 The Contrarian Insight What the majority thinks: " TVC:GOLD is in a bubble, IG:BITCOIN topped" What the charts actually show: TVC:GOLD is in a mature bull market (near end) IG:BITCOIN is in early-mid bull market (tons of runway) The irony: Everyone trusts TVC:GOLD rally (late stage) Everyone doubts IG:BITCOIN rally (early stage) This is exactly backwards. ──────────────────────────────────── 🎭 The Emotional State Comparison TVC:GOLD Holders Right Now: 😰 Starting to feel anxious (down from $4,390) 🤔 "It'll bounce back, right?" 📉 Checking price hoping for recovery 🙃 "I should have sold at $4,390" 😬 "This is just a healthy correction" This is COMPLACENCY - the denial phase after euphoria. IG:BITCOIN Holders Right Now: 😰 Anxious and doubtful 🤐 Not talking about their positions 😔 Wondering if they should sell 📉 Feeling defeated 💀 "Maybe the cycle is over" Which emotional state typically marks: Post-cycle tops? → TVC:GOLD current state (Complacency/Denial after Euphoria peak) Cycle middles? → IG:BITCOIN current state (Doubt during Optimism) ──────────────────────────────────── 💎 The Bottom Line Using the Wall Street Cheat Sheet as our guide: TVC:GOLD : Phase: Thrill → Euphoria Completion: ~95% through cycle Risk/Reward: High risk, limited reward Action: Take profits soon IG:BITCOIN : Phase: Optimism (just finished Hope) Completion: ~30% through cycle Risk/Reward: Moderate risk, massive reward Action: Accumulate aggressively ──────────────────────────────────── 🧠 The Psychology Lesson The market is designed to make you feel wrong at exactly the wrong time: When TVC:GOLD peaked at $4,390 (Euphoria) → You felt confident, " TVC:GOLD to $5K!" Now TVC:GOLD is pulling back (Complacency) → You feel like "it's just a correction" When IG:BITCOIN is cheap and poised (Optimism) → You feel scared to buy This is why most people: Miss selling tops (felt too good at $4,390) Hold through corrections (denial and complacency) Sell bottoms during fear (Optimism feels scary) To win, you must: Trust the structure over the sentiment Buy when it feels uncomfortable (Optimism/Belief) Sell when it feels amazing (Euphoria/Peak) ──────────────────────────────────── 📍 Where We Actually Are HOPE → OPTIMISM( IG:BITCOIN ) → BELIEF → THRILL → EUPHORIA ( TVC:GOLD $4390 Peak) → COMPLACENCY → ( TVC:GOLD Current) IG:BITCOIN is 3-4 phases behind TVC:GOLD . TVC:GOLD already peaked. IG:BITCOIN hasn't even started its parabolic phase yet. ──────────────────────────────────── 🎯 What This Means for Your Portfolio If you're holding TVC:GOLD at $4,000: You missed the peak at $4,390 You're in post-euphoria complacency "It'll bounce back" is denial Risk/reward is terrible now Exit strategy needed YESTERDAY If you're doubting IG:BITCOIN at $102K: You're sitting in Optimism You're early to the party Peak is 3-4 phases away Risk/reward is excellent Accumulation strategy needed NOW ──────────────────────────────────── 🔚 Final Thought The next time someone tells you " IG:BITCOIN topped," show them these two charts side by side. Ask them: "Which one actually topped?" The answer is clear: TVC:GOLD peaked at $4,390 and is now in complacency denial. IG:BITCOIN is still in optimism. TVC:GOLD finished its race. IG:BITCOIN is just finishing Act 1. The Golden Bull Run isn't over—it's barely begun. ──────────────────────────────────── This is educational content comparing market psychology across asset classes. Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately. ────────────────────────────────────
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSD
by niclaxfx
I would call this a Change of Character (CHoCH) for BTCI want to share with you that the 2 Day On Balance Volume (OBV) is now below its EMA(100). The last time this happened was at ATH in November 2021. Also the 2D OVB EMA(100) was spot on at the ATL in January 2023. BTC has reached it's 6.618 Fibonacci of Wave 1 resulting in 698%. Don't you think a correction would be in order? And yet people are still talking about a coming bull run ;))) I don't say this is the final top, even though it looks like it… one more high after a short correction could still be possible. I'm just saying this is something to keep in mind » Already 7x, bullish OBV is finished AND … according to a simple sine wave (yellow) we are now in a down phase until around February - March 2026. Let's see what happens.
Short
by Indicator-Jones
Low High High pivot called 2017 TopFib time of Low High High pivot called the 2017 top to the EXACT DAY. I have similar fib time that predicted our local BTC top to the exact day. Keep in mind that the pivots are based off of the respective current cycles starting from the low that was put in at the previous bear cycle. These fib times were not taking from just the higher time frames such as monthly or weekly but from the EXACT day the pivot was put in. I’ll share the current fib time in my next post.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by antoowens
ETH Daily Technical Overview — Cycle & Box AnalysisCycle Structure: HWC (Higher Wave Cycle – Long-Term): Bullish 🔼 MWC (Middle Wave Cycle – Mid-Term): Range 🔁 LWC (Lower Wave Cycle – Short-Term): Bearish 🔽 Market Context: The first step is to assess the market from a cycle and wave perspective 🧐. Recent sharp down moves are ignored as they are emotional reactions. The current support is a box 📦 that has been tested for around 35 days with four significant touches. My bias is long here 🚀. Long Setup: Weakness in the short-term MWC 🔁 could trigger a bullish move if 4232 resistance is broken and confirmed ✅. The next resistance at 4757 🚧 could turn all cycles bullish 🔼🔼🔼 if broken, offering strong upside potential 📈. Short Consideration: The market is unpredictable ⚠️, so short scenarios should be considered too. Until price reaches 3708 ⬇️, I won’t consider shorts ❌. Shorts require more structure and confirmation. Remember, downside moves are still possible ⚡, so risk management is key 🛡️. 📌 Signature: If you want a specific coin analyzed, drop a comment 💬👇 and I’ll cover it. ⚠️ Without proper risk management, you're just a ticking time bomb 💣
Long
by parsa_xa
EUR/USD: Cycle Analysis You Can’t IgnoreThis chart reveals a dominant 220-bar cycle in the EUR/USD pair ..a repeating rhythm that has shaped market structure for decades. Out of the last 13 major cycle signals, 10 have delivered strong trade results, each aligning closely with turning points in the broader trend. Every major turning point has followed this same cyclical rhythm, proving that even through major global shifts, the market still moves in repeating, fractal patterns. Cycle and fractal analysis continue to provide some of the most objective timing tools in modern trading. While many still dismiss cycles as “theoretical,” the data says otherwise. Question for You: Are you still dismissing cycle analysis, or are you ready to use it to stay ahead of the next major move? Watch the current cycle high!
Short
by Kenayi
DXY: Key Reversal or Dead Cat Bounce?The U.S. Dollar Index has found footing around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near 97.8, breaking a long downtrend. Its push toward the 99.35–100 range suggests a possible retest of a broken structure and alignment with the 50-day EMA. I noticed this move also aligns with short-term recovery signals. Technical View (1D) RSI climbing above 50 hints at renewed momentum. MACD turning green shows early signs of follow-through. Price is testing 100–101, a former support turned resistance. If momentum holds, 102, 104, and 106 are the next resistance zones. Support remains steady at 98, 97, and 95.8, which are shown as strong confluence points with Fibonacci structure. Scenarios: If DXY closes above 100.3, I’d expect continuation toward 102.4 or 104.2. Failure to clear 100 followed by a drop under 98.5 could send it back toward 97.2 or even 95.8. For now, my bias stays neutral to slightly bullish in the short term. A clean breakout above 100 would confirm a structural shift upward. None the less, I’m watching U.S. yields and upcoming CPI data closely and considering the factor that stronger inflation or a hawkish Fed tone could fuel the next DXY leg higher. Thank you for your time and support, and as always please remember that this is always NFA and DYOFR, respectfully.
TVC:DXY
by imaclone_eth
▒₿▒ Distribution Top - Anatomy of a Bitcoin Cycle Top ▒₿▒COINBASE:BTCUSD I've identified key price action indications that we have "topped" with an ATH for this Bull Market Cycle. There is a much deeper analysis that needs to be done here. While this price action is the first major clue, to confirm a true distribution top, we'll also need to analyze volume profiles for institutional selling, spot bearish divergences in key momentum oscillators, and watch on-chain metrics for any signs of whale or miner selling pressure. Every Bitcoin cycle has a story, and the final chapter is always the most dramatic. I've been analyzing the price action at every major cycle peak, and there's a recurring pattern that acts like a final warning before the curtain falls. It’s not the explosive top itself, but the messy, indecisive period that follows: the Distribution Top . This isn't just a pattern; it's the visual footprint of a massive transfer of wealth. It’s the moment when the cycle's early investors (smart money) begin to distribute their holdings to the late, euphoric buyers. Look at the price action from the November 2021 ATH top. After the euphoric peak, the clean, powerful uptrend dies. It's replaced by a volatile, sideways "wiggle." The Heikin Ashi candles lose their bodies, showing long wicks on both sides. This is the signature of market conflict and exhaustion. Cycle Tops vs. Local Highs: A Crucial Distinction It's important to understand that this "wiggle" is unique to major, euphoric ATH cycle tops. Other tops, like the one from August 2021 shown below, have a much different character. Notice how the rejection is sharper, faster, and lacks the prolonged, grinding "wiggle." This is often a rejection from a known resistance level, not the slow, painful end of cycle-wide euphoria. The "Distribution Top" is a process. It’s designed to churn, create confusion, and trap breakout traders before the real move down begins. It’s the market grinding at the highs, absorbing the last wave of FOMO. We saw this exact anatomy play out in the April 2021 top as well. The Key Takeaway for Bitcoin Investors: Recognizing this specific pattern is crucial for capital preservation. When you see this shift from clean momentum to choppy, indecisive grinding near an all-time high , it's a signal that the market character has changed. The risk is no longer to the upside; it's to the downside. While this price action is the first major clue, to confirm a true distribution top, we'll also need to analyze key trend lines, candlestick patterns, seasonality, volume profiles for institutional selling, and watch on-chain metrics for any signs of whale or miner selling pressure. Now, take a look at the most recent price action. We are seeing the early stages of this very same pattern developing after a new high. The question every Bitcoin holder should be asking is: Is this history rhyming once again? As I mentioned at the start of this post, there are much more metrics to analyze here, so I'll be updating this post with further findings. DISCLAIMER I AM NOT A FINACIAL ADVISOR, NOR AM I YOURS. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. MEARLY DOODLINGS ON A MATHMATICALLY DRIVEN GRAPHICAL INTERFACE, TRACKING AN INVISIBLE 256BIT MILITARY-GRADE ENCRYPTED ASSET. . . FOR ENTERTAINMENT/AMUSEMENT PUROSES ONLY. ENJOY! Looking to hear your thoughts on this @TradingView @Profit_Through_Patience @David_Perk @ProjectSyndicate @Xanrox_ @HAMED_AZ @melikatrader94
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CRYPTIK1
16
TheKing Cycles- Nothing can be perfect in Life or in Trading, but you can always brighten up your day. - Remember "Cycles are Cycles" - Everything is in graph - You can follow bears, predicting 10 years of recession, but we are in a big recession and for a long time already. - You can fall in the deep and predict the darkness. - i like to see the sunshine in the morning and i will always radiate warmth. - Follow Hope, and always believe in your own judgement. - Be Bold and do the opposite of what commons peoples think. Happy Tr4Ding !
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by thecryer
27
SP500 - Cycle Analysis; New V-Bottom24 Dec 2018 - V-Bottom Trough: This marks a clean V-bottom. Both the 227-ROC and 114-ROC showed simultaneous positive acceleration after price reacing its low. Shortly after, both crossed their 57-SMA almost in sync — increasing the probability of a sustained bullish move. Price confirmed this by breaking resistance and forming a V pattern. This was further validated by the centered moving average crossover (114-CMA crossing above 227-CMA). 25 Mar 2020 - Deep COVID Crash Trough: During this phase the priced broke below the support, creating a deep trough. Altough both ROC lines initially showed strong negative acceleration due to the COVID-19 crash, they soon reversed above their 57-SMAs, signaling a major shift in momentum. This coincided with the price breaking above the key resistance which was also crossed in 2019 when confirming the old V-pattern. After this breakout, a brief pullback followed before the uptrend resumed with increasing strength. 22 Jun 2021 to 19 Dec 2023 - Pattern During the initial period a bearish divergence was visible in the ROC, nevertheless price and rate of change both declined making a low in early October 2022. A technical pattern began to form, which appears to align more closely with a symmetrical triangle; So when measuring its height and projecting it from the breakout point aligns with the new all-time highs that were reached on 27 June 2025. 21 Mar 2025 - New Cycle Trough A new V-bottom formed shortly after the current cycle began. Both ROC indicators had already crossed their SMAs to the upside, showing early signs of positive acceleration, days before of price broke through the resistance and reached the new record high. The 227-SMA is likely to cross from below the fast SMA while a possibility of a pullback increase. Following that, the 114-CMA will probably has the chance to cross back the 227-CMA, with the price potentially confirming a new support level and resuming its uptrend - in line with the broader cycle timeline.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by AFCapital21
Micron Technology - Starting the next +80% move!Micron Technology - NASDAQ:MU - perfectly respects structure: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Starting back in mid 2024, Micron Technology created the expected long term top formation. We witnessed a correction of about -60%, which ultimately resulted in a retest of a confluence of support. So far, Micron Technology rallied about +60%, with another +80% to follow soon. Levels to watch: $150, $180 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:MULong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
11
Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Structure – Technical BreakdownBitcoin 4-Year Cycle Structure – Technical Breakdown This chart examines Bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle behaviour, focusing on the repeating market structure observed across the last three cycles: Bull Market → Bear Market → Accumulation/Recovery → Halving → Expansion. Key Observations: 🔹 Cycle Timing Consistency Each of the past three cycles has shown a consistent duration between the halving and the final bull market peak—typically between 500–550 days. Based on that timing, the current cycle suggests we are still ~100 days away from a potential macro top. 🔹 Post-Halving Correction is Expected Corrections shortly after the halving have historically marked mid-cycle retracements, not macro tops. The current pullback is structurally aligned with the 2017 and 2021 expansions, where Bitcoin consolidated before pushing to final highs. 🔹 Altcoin Market Segments Lagging TOTAL2 (Total Market Cap excluding BTC) TOTAL3 (Excluding BTC & ETH) OTHERS (Altcoins excluding top 10 by market cap) All remain below their prior cycle all-time highs, which historically occurs before the full market cycle concludes. These segments often accelerate after BTC has established dominance, typically in the later stages of the bull market. 🔹 USDT Dominance Suggests More Upside USDT.D is still trending down, which historically reflects increasing risk appetite and capital rotation into crypto assets. Prior cycle tops have aligned with much lower dominance levels, indicating further downside risk for USDT.D, and potential upside for crypto markets. Conclusion: Despite short-term volatility, the technical structure across Bitcoin and broader market indicators suggests the cycle remains in its expansion phase. Timing models, altcoin lag, and dominance signals all point to further upside potential before a full cycle peak is in. 1W: 1M:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by marshyyy
Dogecoin - Don't forget the dog now!Dogecoin - CRYPTO:DOGEUSD - still remains quite bullish: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Basically during every major bullrun on Dogecoin, we always saw a correction of at least -60%. Therefore the recent drop of -70% was not a surprise at all but rather a natural all time high rejection. If Dogecoin manages to now create bullish confirmation, the bullrun will continue. Levels to watch: $0.2. $0.5 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
24