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Cycleanalysis

AUDUSD: The Setup That Didn’t Trigger - And What Happened NextFollowing the failed setup on Friday 21st, where the Cycle window opened but the market never produced a valid trigger, AUDUSD gave us a different picture on the 24th. Two bearish topping setups developed and, this time, both produced the required confirmation and triggered. The result was a move lower into the projected Cycle low, where price is currently sitting. This is exactly why I separate the process into three stages: Cycle Analysis gives me the window. RSI confirms the setup. Price triggers the entry. On the 21st, the window was there, but the setup never matured into a valid trade. On the 24th, the market gave us the confirmation and the triggers - and price followed through into the Cycle low. The Cycle window tells me when to pay attention. RSI and price tell me when there is actually a trade to take.
by Kenayi
5
BTC 15mins - will it break or hold?The 80 period cycle is approaching a projected peak, and price has already made the sharp advance into that window. RSI has also pushed above the 60 level, which puts us in the right area to start looking for the bearish confirmation. What I find interesting is that RSI has subsequently pulled back toward 60 rather than continuing higher. That is the point where I would become interested in whether the bearish setup can develop. The RSI has made the initial move we need, but the confirmation isn't complete yet. I want to see whether this retracement produces the follow-through to the downside that we've been discussing. In other words, can RSI reject the 60 area and continue lower, rather than reclaiming 60 and extending the bullish momentum? The price structure gives us a similar question. I've marked the area around 78,750 as the level I'm watching. If RSI develops the bearish follow-through and price subsequently breaks that structure, the cycle peak has much better confirmation behind it. At that point, the projected decline shown on the chart becomes an actionable setup rather than simply a cycle projection. If, however, RSI recovers and pushes back above 60, particularly with strength, then I would regard this as another case where the cycle window has opened but the market has not yet produced the confirmation required for the trade. So, if you're asking me "will it break or hold?", my answer from this chart alone is: I would watch the 60 RSI level and the 78,750 price level together. I would not anticipate the break; I would wait for the RSI to demonstrate bearish follow-through and then let price confirm it. That's actually the beauty of this example. The cycle is doing exactly what it is supposed to do: telling us where to pay attention. It isn't asking us to predict the outcome. RSI and price now have to tell us whether the projected cycle turn is actually developing. Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past or projected cycle behaviour does not guarantee future results.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Kenayi
2
Bitcoin fever is just beginning. You are not ready for growthOver the past week, Bitcoin has grown by +20%! Many cryptocurrencies from the top 100 also showed an increase of +20+100%. In the last post in my channel, i wrote that there are ~52 days left for BTC to fall, after which the inevitable growth will begin. But BTC does not have to fall for 50 days; after all, it has already shown a decline of -53% from the previous high. Such a correction is sufficient to start a new bullish cycle for the next 3 years. Technically, BTC now broke the downtrend, key moving averages and the bullish wedge on strong volume. 🔍 Now i’m watching two key levels: $73 000 weekly close above it $81 000 break of the previous local high If both are reclaimed, the next major targets are $100–120K, with a potential double top near the previous ATH. The market is already overbought, but that doesn't automatically mean an immediate correction. BTC can continue higher through consolidation or a slow grind up. At the moment there are two forecasts: positive and negative. The bullish scenario is invalidated if BTC loses the broken trendline and moving averages with a strong weekly reversal. I think the correction of this bear market in crypto is already coming to an end or has already ended. Both forecasts ultimately have a target of $126k by the end of this year or at most by the middle of next year. After which growth can accelerate 🚀 🟢 In the green arrow (positive scenario) suggests growth from the current high towards the historical high. 🔴 The red arrow (negative scenario) also suggests an update of the high, but before that a test of the ~53-56k$ zone is also likely. MA200 and continuation higher That is, you need to have USDT in case of additional purchase. 🟠 Orange line is the most likely growth scenario. At the moment, you need to be prepared for 2 scenarios, because there are many risks that can materialize in 1 week, or maybe in 6 months... ℹ️ BTC as an asset is the most sensitive to liquidity in the $ system, so it is now very important to monitor its dynamics, now the market is counting on the acceleration of the money supply in the world and new inflation surges. I hope this is truly a new trend, then financial assets stocks and crypto have a chance to continue growing. On my channel you can find many useful articles that will help you improve your trading results.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Invest_life
2
Cycle Analysis Finds the Window. Confirmation Finds the TradeFollowing my previous post on how I use RSI to confirm Cycle Analysis entries, I wanted to share a good example of why the distinction between a cycle window and a trade signal is so important. The Cycle Analysis identified another potential bullish window on AUDUSD. That didn't mean it was time to enter. Instead, it meant I needed to start watching for the conditions that would make the setup valid. Initially, RSI moved in the expected direction and broke above 60. However, it then paused and retraced without producing the follow-through I require. As a result, there was no valid RSI confirmation, which meant the price trigger never became valid either. The interesting part is that AUDUSD subsequently moved higher anyway. But that doesn't change the decision. The objective isn't to make sure every Cycle window produces a trade. The objective is to wait for the complete sequence to develop: Cycle Window → RSI Confirmation → Price Trigger → Entry If one part of that sequence fails, I stand aside. This is also why I don't use RSI simply as an overbought or oversold indicator. For me, the level provides context, the behaviour of RSI provides confirmation, and the price action provides the trigger. A Cycle Analysis window tells me where and when to pay attention. It doesn't tell me when to trade. That distinction is fundamental to how I use Cycle Analysis and RSI together.
by Kenayi
2
How I Use RSI to Confirm Cycle Analysis EntriesRSI is not what I use to identify the cycle. I use FractalCycles to identify the potential cycle trough or peak. RSI then tells me whether that cycle is actually behaving as expected. I use RSI(40), with 40, 50, and 60 as important reference levels. However, the level itself is not the signal. What I am looking for is structure and follow-through. For a potential BUY: RSI low → bullish move → retracement → hold → bullish follow-through For a potential SELL: RSI high → bearish move → retracement → hold → bearish follow-through This is why several areas on the chart are marked: “No valid RSI signal here. No follow-through.” i.e we need momentum confirmation. RSI may be at an interesting level or may initially move in the expected direction. However, if the move does not develop the required structure and follow-through, I do not consider the RSI confirmation valid. The 13 August, 17 August, and 19 August examples show this concept from different angles. Once RSI confirms the expected cycle behaviour, I turn back to price for the actual execution level. This is typically done using a BUY Stop or SELL Stop beyond the relevant price structure. So, in simple terms, my Cycle Analysis work identifies the potential opportunity, while RSI is used to confirm whether the cycle is behaving as expected. Once that confirmation is in place, I return to the price structure to determine the actual entry point. The important distinction is that I am not treating a particular RSI level as a signal. Instead, I am looking at how RSI behaves around those levels and whether that behaviour provides the confirmation I am looking for. There is also another layer to how I use RSI, which involves tracking fractals and cycles themselves and understanding how they interact with the underlying price cycle structure. That is a broader topic and deserves its own discussion. For this chart, the key point is that an RSI move without the required follow-through does not provide valid confirmation. I only consider the RSI signal confirmed when the expected behaviour develops and the move provides enough evidence for me to begin looking for the corresponding price entry. Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, and any decisions you make are your own responsibility.
by Kenayi
2
Bitcoin: Is the Next Cycle Already Taking Shape?CRYPTO:BTCUSD has entered an interesting phase. After the 2024–2025 rally and the subsequent correction, BTC has spent much of 2026 consolidating inside what could potentially become its next major accumulation zone. It is still too early to definitively call this the cycle bottom. But when I zoom out to the 2-week chart , the current structure bears a striking resemblance to the conditions that developed around the previous major cycle low. And one signal in particular has caught my attention: Bullish RSI divergence. Looking Back: The 2021–2023 Cycle Bitcoin's 2021 cycle top was not a single event. Price spent months distributing within the upper range before eventually breaking down and entering the 2022 bear market. What followed was a brutal repricing. But as Bitcoin approached the eventual 2022–2023 bottom, something important began happening beneath price. While BTC continued testing the lower portion of its range, momentum stopped deteriorating at the same rate. On the 2W chart, price effectively produced a lower low while RSI produced a higher low. That created a bullish divergence . The significance wasn't that divergence magically predicted the exact bottom. It showed something more useful: Selling pressure was losing momentum even while price remained weak. Eventually the divergence triggered, Bitcoin established its base, reclaimed trend, and what followed became the 2024–2025 rally . BTC moved from the ~$15,000–$20,000 region into six figures. Now Look at 2026 Fast-forward to the current market. Following the 2024–2025 rally, Bitcoin entered another major corrective phase. Price fell from the ~$100,000–$120,000 region and has spent months trading within roughly the $55,000–$84,000 area . At first glance, this could simply be consolidation within a broader downtrend. But underneath price, something familiar has appeared. Once again: Bitcoin has triggered a bullish divergence on the 2W RSI. And this is where things become interesting. The divergence is developing while BTC is attempting to establish a broader base, very similar to what occurred around the previous cycle bottom. The comparison is not perfect — markets never repeat themselves perfectly — but the sequence is difficult to ignore: Major rally → distribution/top → correction → consolidation → bullish momentum divergence → potential cycle bottom. We have seen this movie before. The question is whether the ending will rhyme. The 2W Moving Average Matters There is another component worth watching. The 10-period SMA on the 2W chart currently sits around the high-$60,000 region. Bitcoin is now trading back above that level near $72,000. That matters because momentum divergence alone isn't enough. I want to see price begin confirming what RSI is suggesting. A sustained reclaim of the 2W moving average, followed by the establishment of higher lows and eventually higher highs, would substantially strengthen the argument that the current consolidation is accumulation rather than merely a pause before another leg lower. In other words: Momentum may have fired the first signal. Price still needs to confirm it. What Would Confirm the Cycle Bottom? I am deliberately not labeling the current low as confirmed. Calling bottoms in hindsight is easy. Calling them while they are developing requires accepting uncertainty. For me, the bullish thesis becomes progressively stronger if Bitcoin can: Maintain the current 2W bullish divergence. Hold the broader ~$55K–$60K support region. Establish acceptance above the 2W 10-SMA. Begin producing higher lows within the current range. Eventually break and hold above the ~$80K–$85K region. That last step would be particularly important. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary of the current consolidation would begin changing the structure from potential accumulation into something much more convincing. Until then, this remains a developing thesis. What Invalidates the Idea? This is equally important. Bullish divergence is not immunity from lower prices. Bitcoin can generate positive momentum signals and still continue falling. A decisive breakdown beneath the current accumulation range — particularly if accompanied by renewed weakness in RSI — would force me to reassess the cycle-bottom thesis. The market does not owe us a repeat of 2022–2023. Historical similarity is evidence. It is not confirmation. What About 2027–2028? This is where the chart becomes speculative — but interesting. If the current structure ultimately proves to be another major cycle bottom, then the next logical question becomes: Where does the next expansion take Bitcoin? I have deliberately marked the projected 2027–2028 rally zone with a question mark. Because that's exactly what it is. A possibility. Not a prediction. The chart illustrates a potential expansion toward approximately $180,000–$260,000 , but putting an exact target on a rally that has not even been confirmed would create false precision. The more important observation is the cycle structure itself. The previous sequence produced: 2021 Top → 2022/23 Bottom → 2024/25 Rally The developing sequence could potentially become: 2024/25 Top → 2026 Bottom → 2027/28 Rally That symmetry is what I am watching. Not because Bitcoin must obey a calendar. But because markets repeatedly transition between expansion, distribution, contraction and accumulation. If the current range represents accumulation, the eventual expansion could be substantial. Final Thoughts I don't believe there is enough evidence yet to confidently declare: "The Bitcoin bottom is in." But I also don't think the current structure should be dismissed. The same 2W bullish divergence trigger associated with the previous major cycle transition has surfaced again. Price is consolidating after a substantial correction. Momentum deterioration appears to be slowing. Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its medium-term trend. And the broader structure bears an interesting resemblance to the previous cycle. So for now, my position is simple: Too early to call the bottom. Too interesting to ignore. If price begins confirming what momentum is already suggesting, then the conversation may soon shift away from: "How much lower can Bitcoin go?" And toward: "Has the next Bitcoin cycle already begun?" Fingers crossed. I've got a good feeling about this one. The NFX Team ™️💚. This analysis represents my personal market view and is not financial advice. The projected 2027–2028 region shown on the chart is hypothetical and should not be interpreted as a guaranteed price target.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by niclaxfx
HOW-TO: Trade inside the time windows of the Cyclic Smoothed RSIThe script description explains the mechanics of the csRSI MTF : the cyclically smoothed RSI, its adaptive bands, and the red and green background windows painted by a second csRSI running on a higher timeframe. This HOW-TO covers the part that turns those mechanics into a routine: when the windows tell you to pay attention, what to do inside them, and how to be notified so you can ignore the chart the rest of the time. The workflow in one sentence. Wait for a colored window, then trade what forms inside it, a band sequence or a divergence, and do nothing between windows. Reading the chart. Six months of the S&P 500 on the two-hour timeframe, filtered by the daily csRSI. Four episodes cover the whole method: (1) The green window and its buys. From mid-March into early April the daily csRSI sat below its lower band, so the background turned green: buy territory on the two-hour chart. Note the plural in the heading. The two-hour line completed more than one buy sequence inside this window while the daily decline was still running; the early crosses bought bounces that faded, and the final cross at the turn of the month caught the 6,343 low and the rally of more than 1,200 points that followed. In real time nobody knows which trigger is the final one. Therefore treat entries inside a green window as a series, and size them so that an early trigger costs patience, not substance. (2) The first sell and the warning it left behind. In mid-May the daily filter turned overbought and painted the first red window. Inside it the two-hour line crossed back down through its upper band around May 14, and the index dropped about 150 points in three sessions, from a close near 7,501 to 7,354, before the advance resumed. A valid sequence with a modest payoff, and something more important: when price pushed on to a new high above 7,600 in early June, the two-hour line answered that higher high with a clearly lower one. The first sequence paid small and left a divergence behind. (3) The second sell: no band event, just the divergence. Inside the next red window the two-hour line never even reached its upper band again. It stalled at a visibly lower high while price stood at a higher one above 7,600, and that failure is the signal: momentum could not confirm the new high. The turn down from that lower high around June 3 was the divergence-backed trigger the first HOW-TO in this series called the strongest confirmation, and it needed no band cross at all. From the trigger the index returned nearly 300 points in five sessions, from a close at 7,554 down to 7,267. The window said look; the divergence said now. (4) The two months since. From mid-June to today the daily filter has painted nothing, and the workflow has accordingly demanded nothing. Two months without a window is two months without a mandatory decision. The line currently sits near its lower band with the filter neutral; the next assignment arrives when the background changes color. Why the windows earn their keep. Chart 2 zooms out to two years of the same setup. The green windows cluster at the major lows, including April 2025 and April 2026, and the red ones gather at the tops, with a few appearing mid-rally in the autumn of 2025 that paid pullbacks of the May variety rather than reversals. The filter does not predict; it concentrates your attention on the handful of weeks where the higher timeframe says the odds are stretched. CHART 2: Settings. This chart runs the recommended pairing for two-hour trading: indicator timeframe "Same as chart", MTF resolution one day. The script description lists the pairings for other trading rhythms, from twenty-minute charts up to weekly investors. The optional cycle length inputs sharpen both lines further; the chart above runs the standard settings, unoptimized. The alert that replaces screen time. The windows exist so you do not have to watch the panel. Set one alert per symbol: choose the csRSI MTF value with the "Out of Channel" condition, and select the MTF high band and MTF low band as the upper and lower limits. The alert fires exactly when a red or green window opens, which is the moment the workflow above begins. Until then, the chart can stay closed. This is a discretionary tool, and windows guarantee nothing: they mark where signals have historically carried better odds. Size positions so a failed sequence inside a window stays an annoyance, not a problem. Indicator:
TVC:SPXEducation
by StockMarketCycles
HOW-TO: A complete workflow for the RSI cyclic smoothed ProThe script description explains what the cRSI Pro is and which features it brings. This HOW-TO covers what the description leaves open: the daily workflow. In other words, how to read the chart, how to tune the one setting that matters, and how to let the screener and the alert engine watch the market so you do not have to. Reading the chart All decisions happen at the two adaptive bands, and the year and a half above contains the full repertoire. The numbered marks on the chart correspond to the points below: (1) April 2025 panic low: the signal line stretched far below the falling lower band (Bear Exhaustion in screener terms), turned up (Bear Fatigue), and crossed back inside the channel (Bear Exit). That cross is the buy signal, and it appeared while the news flow was at its darkest. Note what is missing here: no divergence. At panic lows the depth of the exhaustion below the band substitutes; divergence is the strongest confirmation, not a mandatory one. (2) Autumn 2025 divergence: through September and October price pushed to higher highs while the indicator printed three successively lower highs along the upper band. Three warnings in a row, resolved by the November correction. (3) February 2026 divergence: price set a marginal new high at 6,978 against 6,890 in December, and the indicator answered with a clearly lower high. The February-March correction followed. A divergence on a smooth line is visible at a glance; on a jagged one it drowns. (4) March 2026 correction low: the same sequence as (1), exhaustion below the band near the close at 6,343 on March 30, then the cross back inside during the first April sessions, followed by a rally of roughly twenty percent in two months. (5) June 2026 top: the mirror image. The line turned down above the upper band (Bull Fatigue) and crossed back inside (Bull Exit) around June 3. The index gave back about 340 points within a week. (6) June pullback buy: one week after the exit at (5), the line had already fallen through the lower band at the June 10 low near 7,267, and crossed back inside within days. Price recovered 287 points in the following three sessions. A sell sequence and a buy sequence, days apart on the same swing: the bands adapt fast enough to trade both sides of it. And the right side of the chart today: the line sits just above the lower band with the score at 0. No state, no trade; the next decision forms if and when the band is actually reached. Patience between band events is a position too. The events between the numbers The chart shows more band touches than the six marks, and they stay visible on purpose. The most important of them share one pattern: the first condition of the sequence, the line pushing out beyond a band, is usually a continuation statement, not a reversal. In February 2026 the line pushed below the lower band weeks before the final low, and the decline continued; in late April 2026 it pushed above the upper band and opened the two-month run to the June high. The classic RSI teaches the opposite reflex, "oversold means buy, overbought means sell", and would have been wrong both times. The cRSI sequence separates "stretched and running" from "turned and crossed back inside", and only the second is a signal. The remaining touches are the honest residue: a few sell-side crosses during the 2025 uptrend that produced shallow dips at best. A single band event against a strong trend is the weakest signal this indicator produces, which is exactly why the workflow waits for the second, divergence-backed confirmation after strong moves. One window, three indicators Chart 2 covers the same period and stacks three panes: a standard 14-period RSI with its fixed 70/30 levels, the cRSI Pro with the default Cycle Length of 20, and the cRSI Pro tuned to the dominant cycle which the spectrum scanner reads at 180 bars Now revisit the weak stretch from the previous paragraph, the 2025 uptrend, in all three panes. The top pane shows how little the classic RSI had to say there: it drifted through its upper region for five months, tagged the 70 line a few times without follow-through, and dropped to mid-range on every routine dip. Those are readings that describe noise. The middle pane, the default setting this guide runs, condensed the same months to a few decisive band exits, and their shallow outcomes are the honest residue discussed above. The bottom pane is the long wave, and it reduces the entire window to three statements. It sat in exhaustion territory below its lower band at the April 2025 crash, it touched the lower band again at the March 2026 low, and it arced above its upper band at the June 2026 top before rolling back inside, which is the long wave's sell signal standing on the chart right now. During the whole 2025 advance it climbed steadily beneath its upper band: at this length the question of selling early never even came up. The trade-off is equally clear: a 180-bar wave produces a handful of decisions per year, arriving slowly. In practice, the two panes answer different questions. The default answers "is a swing turning here", the tuned long wave answers "which half of the big cycle am I in", and holding both apart is what the scanner's cycle table is for. When the dominant cycle is unknown, keep the default. Screening Add the cRSI Pro score column to your TradingView screener and filter for the exit states: +3 and +4 mark a sell trigger at the upper band, -3 and -4 a buy trigger at the lower band. The screener then returns only the symbols standing at a band cross right now, which turns a hundred-chart watchlist into a two-minute daily check. Alerting Every plotted value is available in the alert dialog. Create one alert per monitored symbol on the signal line leaving the channel between the two bands; from that moment the symbol is in the zone where reversals begin, and that is the time to open the chart. Link to indicator:
TVC:SPXEducation
by StockMarketCycles
95% of traders buy the Worst Possible Time - Dont be one of ThemHave you ever bought Bitcoin, watched it rise for a few days… and then suddenly crash? You're not alone, brother. We've all been through this. Most beginners enter the market at exactly the moment when experienced investors are taking profits. Why? Because they don't understand one simple thing: every liquid market moves in cycles. Once you learn to recognize these cycles, you'll stop chasing the crowd and start understanding where the real opportunities are. Every market follows the same cycle: 🟦 1. Accumulation After a long decline, fear is everywhere. The news is negative, most people have given up, and almost nobody wants to buy. This is exactly where long-term investors quietly begin accumulating positions. 📈 2. Markup (Uptrend) Demand starts to exceed supply. The price begins making higher highs and higher lows. Confidence slowly returns, but the majority still doesn't believe the rally. 🚀 3. Euphoria This is where FOMO takes over. Everyone is talking about Bitcoin. Social media is full of screenshots showing huge profits. Friends who never cared about crypto suddenly want to buy. This is where most beginners enter the market. Ironically, it's often one of the riskiest places to buy. ⚖️ 4. Distribution The price is still near its highs, but smart money is already selling. Large investors gradually unload their positions while the public continues buying, convinced that "this time it's different." 📉 5. Markdown (Decline) Buyers disappear. Fear replaces greed, prices fall, panic selling begins, and many investors sell near the bottom... right before a new accumulation phase starts. Bitcoin BITGET:BTCUSDT is a perfect example Think back to the 2023-2025 Bitcoin bull market. Accumulation: Throughout Jun 2022– Mar 2023, while interest in Bitcoin was relatively low, long-term investors were steadily buying. Market UP: From late Mar 2023 - Aug 2024, Bitcoin entered a strong uptrend and attracted increasing attention. Euphoria: Around Sep 2024 - Jun 2025, when Bitcoin reached nearly $69,000, mainstream media, celebrities, and first-time investors rushed into the market. Distribution: Jul 2025 - Nov 2025, Large holders gradually sold into that wave of optimism while prices remained near the highs. Markdown: Since Oct 2025 - from NOW, Bitcoin fell by more than 50%, shaking out many late buyers. New Accumulation: i think during Jul 2026– Oct 2026, while interest faded and fear dominated, the next accumulation phase quietly began—setting the stage for the following bull market. The main lesson: Price doesn't move randomly. Human emotions don't change. Greed creates tops. Fear creates bottoms. The traders who understand market cycles don't ask: "Should I buy?" They ask: "Which stage of the cycle are we in right now?" That single question can completely change your life and the way you invest. On my channel you will find many educational posts about investments With which you can improve your results from trading and investing. Stay out of the crowd!
BITGET:BTCUSDTEducation
by Invest_life
14
Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Zone: Is $60K the Launchpad for $90K?Bitcoin is once again trading inside a historically important demand zone between $60,000 and $64,000. From a technical perspective, the broader structure remains bearish – BTC continues to form lower highs and is still trading below both the 200-day moving average and the major descending trendline. However, the technical weakness is developing alongside several long-term fundamental catalysts that could create the conditions for a larger recovery. Corporate demand has not disappeared Michael Saylor’s Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with more than 843,000 BTC on its balance sheet. The company continued accumulating during the market decline, including purchases around the mid-$60,000 area, although it has also recently sold a relatively small portion of its holdings as part of a new capital-management program. This distinction matters. Strategy is no longer operating under a simple “buy and never sell” model. It is increasingly managing Bitcoin as part of a broader treasury structure involving common shares, preferred securities, dividends and cash reserves. The recent sales may create short-term pressure, but the company still controls one of the largest concentrated Bitcoin positions in the world. Its average acquisition price is estimated at approximately $75,000 per BTC, meaning the current market price is also below Strategy’s overall cost basis. For long-term bulls, this creates an interesting situation: Bitcoin is trading below the average price paid by its most aggressive corporate buyer. The Trump family remains deeply exposed to Bitcoin Bitcoin also continues to receive political and corporate support from businesses connected to the Trump family. American Bitcoin, backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., operates a combined Bitcoin-mining and treasury strategy. The company reportedly holds more than 8,000 BTC, while continuing to accumulate coins through mining despite the broader downturn. This is not the same as Eric Trump personally purchasing Bitcoin on the open market. However, the family’s exposure through American Bitcoin means that its financial interests remain closely connected to the long-term performance of the asset. President Donald Trump has also continued to present himself as supportive of the cryptocurrency industry. His recent pro-crypto comments helped Bitcoin recover after temporarily falling toward $60,000, demonstrating that political messaging can still influence short-term market sentiment. Weak price, strong strategic interest Bitcoin has declined sharply from its previous peak, but the fundamental story has not disappeared. Corporate treasury companies remain exposed to the asset. Mining firms continue accumulating production. Political figures are increasingly connected to cryptocurrency businesses. Meanwhile, the market is now trading near levels that previously attracted significant institutional demand. This does not guarantee that $60,000 will hold. It does suggest that the current area is more than just another horizontal support level. It is becoming a test of whether long-term strategic buyers are prepared to absorb the supply created by leveraged traders, weaker treasury companies and short-term investors. Technical structure The first major condition for a bullish reversal is a sustained hold above the $60,000–$63,000 demand zone. Bitcoin has already tested this area several times. Repeated tests can weaken support, but the market has so far avoided a decisive daily breakdown below $60,000. The first upside objective is located around $66,000–$67,000, where recent local highs may create selling pressure. Above that level, Bitcoin would approach the most important resistance cluster on the chart: The descending trendline from the previous highs The 200-day moving average The horizontal resistance area around $70,000–$74,000 A move into this region would not automatically confirm a new bull market. It would represent the real decision point. Bullish scenario The bullish scenario would develop in several stages: Bitcoin holds the $60,000–$63,000 support zone. Price breaks above $66,000–$67,000. BTC reaches the descending trendline near $70,000–$74,000. The market closes decisively above the trendline and 200-day moving average. A successful retest turns former resistance into support. If this structure develops, the next upside targets would be: Target 1: $77,000 The first major resistance after the breakout. Target 2: $82,000 A previous reaction area and psychologically important level. Target 3: $88,000–$90,000 The larger recovery target shown on the chart. A breakout above $74,000 could also force short sellers to close positions, potentially accelerating the move through a short squeeze. Bearish scenario The bearish risk remains significant. Bitcoin is still below a falling 200-day moving average and has not broken the sequence of lower highs. Until that changes, every rally can technically be treated as a countertrend move. A decisive daily or weekly close below $60,000 would weaken the setup and expose: $57,000–$58,000 $54,000–$55,000 Potentially the psychological $50,000 level The greatest warning signal would be a breakdown below $60,000 followed by a failed attempt to reclaim it. In that case, former support could turn into resistance and create another wave of selling. The bigger picture Bitcoin is currently caught between two opposing forces. On one side, the chart remains bearish, corporate treasury models are under pressure and some large holders have begun managing or reducing parts of their positions. On the other side, Strategy still holds more than 843,000 BTC, Trump-linked American Bitcoin continues building its treasury through mining, and political support for the cryptocurrency sector remains stronger than during previous cycles. The market does not need immediately bullish news to recover. It needs selling pressure to weaken while long-term demand continues absorbing supply. That process may already be taking place around $60,000. Key levels Major support: $60,000–$63,000 Local confirmation: $66,000–$67,000 Breakout zone: $70,000–$74,000 Bullish targets: $77,000 / $82,000 / $88,000 Bearish invalidation: Confirmed breakdown and failed reclaim of $60,000 Bitcoin has not confirmed a reversal yet. But with price compressed near major support, corporate and politically connected entities still holding substantial exposure, and the descending trendline moving closer to the market, the next breakout could determine the direction of BTC for the rest of the summer. The opportunity is not the prediction. The opportunity is the asymmetric setup between clearly defined support and a potential structural breakout.
BINANCE:BTCUSDTLong
by Market_Atlas
2
Gold. 3888USD Perounce? China Gonna Control XAUUSD? 6/July/2026XAUUSD. China going to launch its Gold Clearing System this week.. So What this "moves" will affect China and Overall world Gold market? This push by Hong Kong and Beijing is a structural shake-up for the precious metals world. For nearly two centuries, Western markets (specifically London and New York) have controlled how global gold is traded, cleared, and priced. ​This move directly targets that dominance, fundamentally shifting the gold market's "center of gravity" from West to East while boosting China's financial autonomy....
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SteveTan
When Structure Reveals the Path of Price | DJI Elliott Wave StudWhen Structure Reveals the Path of Price | DJI Elliott Wave Study Many traders forget that Ralph Nelson Elliott developed the Wave Principle primarily through the study of stock markets. For this reason, equities may still be one of the most natural environments for observing the true behavior of wave structures. While commodities, assets and even cryptocurrencies often produce meaningful Elliott patterns, some currency markets tend to develop structures that eventually resolve into complex corrective formations. Pairs such as EUR/USD frequently demonstrate this behavior, where long-term movement may unfold through extended corrective combinations rather than sustained impulsive trends. However, markets like USD/JPY occasionally reveal a different character. In my observations, an impulsive structure appeared even within a broader bearish phase, and the current bullish phase is also progressing through a distinct five-wave impulse. One of the most underestimated dimensions of the Wave Principle is time. Structure is not defined by price alone; it evolves through the interaction of price movement, time development, and collective psychology. In the present structure, the third wave has progressed approximately equal to the first wave, while the fifth wave advanced roughly 78.6% before entering an Expanded Flat correction. From a cyclical perspective, once the initial 5 + 3 sequence is completed, the first eight-wave cycle of the structure is formed. From there, the market may develop through multiple structural possibilities: a diagonal formation, a new impulse, or a series of 1–2 sequences preparing the ground for a stronger expansion. Understanding these transitions is less about counting waves and more about recognizing how structure, proportion, and time interact within market behavior.
TVC:DJILong
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
Bitcoin Cycle Analysis: Estimating the Next Bottom using EMA'sIn this post, we take a straightforward approach to estimating the potential cycle bottom for Bitcoin using the 100, 200, and 400 weekly moving averages. There is no need to always overcomplicate the analysis when simple historical patterns can also provide valuable insights. Historical Observations Looking at previous cycles, several consistent patterns emerge: The 100, 200, and 400-week moving averages have historically acted as key levels of support and resistance. In the past two cycles, the cycle bottom occurred approximately 52 weeks after the cycle top. The magnitude of drawdowns each cycle has shown a trend of diminishing severity: 2017–2018 cycle approximately -84% and 2021–2022 cycle approximately -77%. Current Market Context Turning to the current cycle: The maximum drawdown so far is only around -52%, which is notably shallower than previous cycles. The 400-week EMA corresponds to roughly a -60% drawdown, still perfectly aligning with the concept of diminishing returns. Outlook Based on historical drawdown trends, the behavior of long-term moving averages, and the typical ~52-week bear market duration, we anticipate that the next cycle bottom may occur toward the end of September 2026 . This level is expected to coincide with a retest of the 400-week moving average, with a projected price range around $50,000 , and the potential for temporary downside extensions toward $45,000 . Good luck, and trade safely! 🙏
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Cryptonerds
1
ETH/USD Weekly - cycle top in, mid-drawdown, no rotationCompanion to my BTC weekly cycle framing. ETH cycle dynamics are different enough to deserve their own analysis. Cycle position: ETH printed its cycle top around late 2025 near USD 4,800, almost exactly the same nominal level as the 2021 cycle peak (USD 4,891). The interesting wrinkle: ETH did not get its expected "altcoin rotation" phase during the late-2025 BTC cycle peak. BTC dominance stayed elevated throughout because the spot ETF demand layer absorbed institutional flow that historically rotated into ETH. Today: ETH at USD 2,124, roughly 56 percent off the late-2025 ATH (deeper than BTC's 40 percent drawdown). Price is below both the EMA 50 weekly (2,701) and EMA 100 weekly (2,762). Pi Cycle Top fired during the late-2025 peak as the 111-day MA × 2 (orange line, 4,167) crossed above the 350-day MA × 2 (green line, 2,933). ETH/BTC ratio context (the rotation-tier anchor): - 2021 cycle peak: ETH/BTC ~ 0.082 - 2022 bear bottom: ETH/BTC ~ 0.045 - 2024 mid-cycle: ETH/BTC ~ 0.045-0.055 - Today: ETH/BTC ~ 0.028 ETH/BTC is at multi-year lows, below even the 2022 bear-market bottom. This is the data telling you the late-cycle alt rotation that drove the 2017 and 2021 ETH parabolas never materialized this cycle. Historical ETH drawdown anchors: - 2018-2019 bear: ETH USD 1,432 to USD 83, -94 percent - 2022 bear: ETH USD 4,891 to USD 880, -82 percent - Current cycle: -56 percent so far. Either early in the bear (more downside toward USD 1,500 zone) OR a structurally shallower cycle. ETH-specific multi-tier framework: - Cycle-timing tier: post-Merge 3.5+ years; staking economics now the dominant supply dynamic - Valuation tier: price below long-term EMA cluster, Mayer-style ratio below 1.0 - Sentiment tier: cross-references broad crypto risk sentiment - Rotation tier: ETH/BTC at multi-year lows, BTC dominance elevated. Pre-rotation rebuild, not late-cycle rotation - Validator/staking tier: queue length, staking ratio (data dependent) Watch list for the ETH cycle bottom signal: - ETH price toward USD 1,500-1,800 zone (a -65 percent drawdown matching historical cycle bottoms) - ETH/BTC reclaiming above 0.045 with confirmation (a sign rotation is restarting) - Validator unstaking queue elevated, ETH-denominated yield stabilizing ASIC 30:1 leverage cap applies for Australian retail traders on crypto CFD positions. Educational analysis only. Not financial advice. - Govind (ex-institutional trader)
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by GovindSatoshi
BTC/USD Weekly - cycle top in, mid-drawdown, accumulation not yeFraming the weekly against cycle position rather than just support and resistance. Cycle position: BTC is approximately 25 months post the April 2024 halving. Historical cycle tops printed 12 to 18 months post-halving - Nov 2013, Dec 2017, Nov 2021. The 2024-2025 cycle extended slightly with cycle top printing around October 2025 at USD 128k. Pi Cycle Top confirmation: the 111-day MA × 2 (orange line on chart, currently around USD 86,000) crossed above the 350-day MA × 2 (green line, currently around USD 94,242) during the late-2025 peak. Pi Cycle Top has marked cycle tops within days of the actual peak in every prior BTC cycle - 2013, 2017, 2021, and now 2025. Today: BTC at USD 76.9k, roughly 40 percent off ATH, 6 to 7 months into the post-cycle drawdown. Price is below both the EMA 50 weekly (85,171) and EMA 100 weekly (82,280). Standard post-cycle structural setup. Historical drawdown anchors: - 2018 bottom: USD 3.2k, -84 percent from ATH, 12 months from cycle top - 2022 bottom: USD 15.5k, -77 percent from ATH, 12 months from cycle top - Current cycle: -40 percent from ATH at 6 to 7 months in. Either early in the drawdown (more downside to USD 40-50k zone) OR this cycle is structurally shallower because of the spot ETF demand layer. Multi-tier confluence checklist for calling a cycle bottom (not just mid-cycle support): - Cycle-timing tier: 12 to 18 months past cycle top. Currently 6 to 7 months. Premature. - Valuation tier: Mayer Multiple below 0.8, Pi Cycle Bottom indicator firing, Power Law deviation in lower quartile. - Sentiment tier: Fear and Greed below 20 sustained for 30+ days. - Miner tier: Hash Ribbons BUY signal after miner capitulation, Puell Multiple below 0.5. - Rotation tier: BTC dominance rising through 60 percent. None of the bottom-confluence tiers are firing meaningfully today. This looks like mid-cycle drawdown rather than late-cycle capitulation. Bottom thesis would strengthen on a deeper move into the USD 50-60k zone combined with Hash Ribbons BUY. ASIC 30:1 leverage cap applies for Australian retail traders on crypto CFD positions. Educational analysis only. Not financial advice. - Govind (ex-institutional trader)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by GovindSatoshi
2
AVAX double top flip chart short & macro cycle market analysisAVAX along with most other coins is seeing a big correction downward. It’s broken the neckline on a double top and the measured move is 7.41. The macd was trending down while price was heading up indicating a divergence on the indicator. Analysts have noted btcs rise to 82k was a mid cycle correction and is potentially going to bottom out at 45k. With on chain metrics off all coins showing large downside corrections that possibility is starting to seem like it’s more likely than not with the markets big downside corrections. As most traders know all other coins generally follow bitcoin’s price action until it has stabilized in price than profits from btcs run up get refunneled into altcoins. This time in the market cycle is called Altseason, and has seen 400x pumps in alts in prior seasons. One analyst noted on yesterday on Btc pizza day that the pump was reminiscent of alt season but I believe it was more of a mini alt season following mid cycle correction to 82k and the bigger run is coming after Btc bottoms at 45k and restabilizes after hitting new higher highs. The BEAR cycle is back with a vengeance so better to put your bear suit on than trying to run with the bulls at least until that time comes. Anyways happy trades everyone!
COINBASE:AVAXUSDShort
by QuantMasterEcch