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DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) — TECHNICALS FIRST, FUNDAMENTALS SECOND Technically, the key level this week is 99.197. If DXY manages a bullish close above it, we should see a weekly structure shift higher. That opens the door for 99.8 → 101.5 as internal algorithmic targets. This isn’t wishful thinking — this is how systems behave when liquidity regimes flip. Under that lens, any rejections beneath 99.197 or weak closes around it remain valid short setups — but only after structure gives the nod. Don’t force trades ahead of confirmation. In the background, the dollar is reacting to trade-war rhetoric and political shifts. Trump’s 100 % tariffs on Chinese imports raised volatility, but he later softened his tone, suggesting more cooperation than conflict. Its complet currency war. Meanwhile, some analysts argue a bullish case for the dollar remains due to relative U.S. productivity strength and higher real yields. These narratives give motive, but do not override price structure. So from CORE5’s frame: structure leads, news lags. Let clean price confirmation in the 99.197 zone tell you whether to lean into long bias or respect the risk of failure. Eyes locked.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
EUR/USD — BEARISH FRACTAL TAKES SHAPEEUR/USD is developing a fresh bearish fractal, printing a high at 1.19187 after months of consolidation since June. We’ve already broken last month’s low, and price now sits in alignment with the expanding dollar structure. Momentum is building — a massive move may unfold next month, but for now confirmation is key. If October closes bearish, this market confirms a full structural breakdown. The June low near 1.1720 becomes Target 1, and I’ll be trading it heavy on a confirmed close. Until then, the play is patience — hunting range discounts and watching orderflow rotations for clean continuation setups. From a macro perspective, the dollar’s strength remains clear. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is pressing toward 99.197, an algorithmic expansion zone supported by volume analytics and internal order flow. Rising U.S. yields and sustained capital inflows continue to pressure the euro, while Eurozone industrial output fell 4.3% month-on-month with Germany down 18.5%, underlining structural weakness. From the CORE5 lens, structure leads, liquidity confirms, fundamentals justify. As long as dollar momentum holds and EUR/USD fails to reclaim last month’s structure, the bias remains lower.
Short
by CORE5DAN
BITCOIN — STRUCTURE SHIFT INSIDE BEARISH RANGEBitcoin has filled the 116.3 to 114.9 imbalance and is now trading inside a defined bearish range. Lower-timeframe structure has shifted downward with significant volume left behind, which suggests this is not a place to buy into strength. Price has completed the imbalance fill, and the next question is whether this area becomes a market-maker trap or a true continuation leg. If smart money continues to build short positions, distribution could follow. If liquidity dries up and buyers absorb, the trap scenario takes shape. Patience remains the correct position. Focus on the 15-minute to 1-hour range for confirmation. A break of structure, a clean rejection, or a failed retest around 116.3 will define the next directional move. Until that occurs, any trade inside this zone is a low-probability action. On the macro side, the U.S. Dollar Index continues higher, signaling risk aversion and tighter global liquidity. Bitcoin does not move in perfect correlation, but capital still follows the path of safety when the dollar strengthens. In the current environment, the edge lies in observation and precision, not anticipation. Let structure confirm before committing. Probabilities always favor the patient.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
BITCOIN UpdateBitcoin x Dollar Bitcoin delivered four clean trades last week — precise structure, high control. Now we’re sitting right inside the buy zone, near the lower negative deviation of range volume. Yesterday’s session was flat, typical Sunday noise. Today, volume’s tightening — energy’s building. The key structural area is 121 698. That’s our bearish distribution ceiling — the level that’s kept price capped for weeks. If Bitcoin holds below, we stay in distribution. But if it breaks and confirms above, the market opens clean air for a strong leg higher. Macro adds spice here: The U.S. shutdown still delays core data, the dollar’s stretched, and liquidity’s thin. If DXY breaks lower, Bitcoin could fly hard — fast. But remember, volatility in these conditions ignores perfect TA. I learned that lesson long ago — great setups fail when macro chaos takes the wheel. Stay patient. Watch 121 698 — that’s where the real story starts.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
Dollar at Max Deviation — Watching 99.197 CloselyThe dollar had another wild week, closing around 99.197 — right on the edge of major structure. Most traders see strength, but when you zoom out, this move looks stretched. Yields have started to cool off, which takes pressure off the dollar’s safe-haven run. We still got smaller data releases like PMIs and Fed talks, but the big stuff like CPI is on hold until the U.S. shutdown clears. Even the IMF warned about growing liquidity risks in global FX — meaning sudden spikes or fake outs can happen fast when markets get thin. Technically, we’re in a bearish zone on the higher timeframe. The last three months of liquidity targets are already taken, and the market’s now trading inside maximum deviation — a point where algorithms usually reset before any new trend forms. That’s why 99.197 matters: it’s the last shelf before structure confirms the drop. If price breaks and holds below that level early next week, momentum likely shifts bearish. If it holds above, expect more sideways chop before a correction. For now, it’s all about patience and tracking structure — not emotions.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by CORE5DAN
BITCOIN UpdateWeekly Wrap: The Dollar Holds the Key BTC hit the highs, we shorted the trap, and rode it clean back to range low — 109,358. That level? It’s the bearish validation line — the hinge between bull control and breakdown. Now, price rejected 109 and bounced. As long as this weekly candle closes above 107,250, structure stays technically bullish. No weakness on tape, just normal liquidity rotation. That’s why I’m closing the heavy shorts and keeping only micro runners. The market still reads algorithmically bullish unless that low gives way. The wildcard, as always: the Dollar. We’re sitting in a high-probability sell zone. If DXY rolls over, that fuels risk-on flow — BTC, Gold, and Euro all breathe again. But if market makers squeeze it higher, that’s death to metals and crypto. Expect a sharp flush across the board. 📊 Bottom line: → BTC structure intact. → DXY in sell territory, but not confirmed. → Watch weekly close — 107,250 is everything. Stay calm. This is the part where most traders misread rotation as reversal.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
BTCUSD update Bitcoin just smashed through another order block and slipped straight into the discount zone — the area where opportunity often hides. Price has flushed thru last oredblock and is now sitting deep in liquidity pockets Structure remains bearish in the short term, but momentum hints at a possible rotation higher if we see dollar to reclaim lower levels, lets see what next week brings to us This has been an incredible trading week — multiple clean plays across majors and BTC delivering textbook structure. Now comes the patience phase. Let price confirm before adding exposure. #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #SmartMoney #CORE5TRADECRAFT #MarketStructure #OrderFlow #TradingView
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
US Dollar RECAPDollar Index (DXY) — Range Heat Building You’ve got a weekly bearish range, with a key high at 99.8 and price now trading into bearish distribution around 99.0. The dollar’s been front and center this week — while Washington argues over funding, it’s been doing real damage across cross-asset charts. Price has been printing higher lows all week, grinding inside this bearish range. That’s your profit-taking zone, not an add-on zone. Stay patient. Let the range speak.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by CORE5DAN
BITCOIN IDEA Bitcoin is still stuck in a sideways range. KEY level bullish is at 122,300, and right now price isfilling orders near 121,183 daily cap. That means we’re kind of in the middle — not super strong, not super weak. The daily trend is still up, but price is pulling back a bit to fill orders. If Bitcoin starts dropping, 118,543 is the next big level to watch. If it holds and bounces, we might see another push higher. If it breaks, we could fall deeper into that lower area. The U.S. dollar is strong this week → makes it harder for BTC to move up. Jack Dorsey (the Twitter guy) just dropped a new Bitcoin wallet — cool for long-term use. So for now: stay patient, watch 121K and 118K zones, and don’t chase candles.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
US DOLLAR TARGETS HITThe U.S. government is still shut down, so no fresh economic data is coming out. That means everyone’s trading half-blind right now—no jobs numbers, no inflation updates, just noise. But the chart still tells the truth. All the bullish dollar targets were hit exactly as planned, and now price is sitting right under that 99.8 key high. That’s the line that decides everything. If market makers push price higher than 99.8, the bullish phase stays alive a bit longer. If it fails there, we drop back into bearish discount territory, where value sits lower and sellers regain control. Over the past four months, liquidity’s been building above those highs. Now we’re watching a classic stop run—price pushing up to take out weak hands before the real move begins. That’s why cross markets like stocks, gold, and crypto are slipping. The dollar’s acting as a safe spot while everything else bleeds. But the volume looks thin, which usually means manipulation, not genuine demand. Without the usual USD data, it’s all a guessing game until the Fed minutes drop later today. For now, it’s simple: the 99.8 zone is the make-or-break level. Stay patient, read the structure, and let the chart talk. Price always moves to where orders are missing, and stops where they’re full. Follow that rule, and you’ll never feel lost in the noise.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
EUR USD and DOLLAR UPDATE The Dollar Index (DXY) is grinding through a daily order block and has just pierced 97.882. Technical If we close above 97.882, that confirms a break and opens continuation toward higher liquidity zones. With tomorrow’s heavy macro news, the setup has volume behind it for a potential massive move. Macros U.S. government shutdown is weighing on confidence and trimming growth forecasts (each week may shave 0.1–0.2pp off GDP). The Fed remains cornered — markets price in rate cuts, but policy credibility is under scrutiny. Safe-haven flows are mixed: gold at records, dollar stabilizing after Supreme Court support for Fed’s Cook. Data releases are being delayed by the shutdown, which adds uncertainty and volatility. EURUSD We’re short and holding. 4-month rangebound structure remains Be aware Dollar strength is being fueled by technical break + macro volume. EURUSD is vulnerable if DXY confirms above 97.882. But with policy risk and shutdown uncertainty, expect volatility spikes and liquidity hunts around tomorrow’s big data.
TVC:DXYShort
by CORE5DAN
BTC vs USD: Macro Liquidity vs TechnicalsBitcoin is at a hinge point. Technical View: Weekly volume profile looks bearish, but if BTC closes above 119,465.52 the setup flips into an explosive breakout. Macro View: The dollar is boxed (96.7–98.3) and fiscal stress + Fed cut bets are weighing on USD. Gold is at record highs on safe-haven demand. In this environment, macro liquidity can override technical ceilings. That’s why I’ve stepped back to scalping until the macro picture stabilizes. The market is running on liquidity hunts, not clean structure. 🔑 Levels to Watch BTC: Weekly close >119,465.52 → ignition higher DXY: Breakout from 96.7–98.3 range decides cross-asset direction When macros dominate, technicals bend. Patience and risk control matter more than chart perfection here.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CORE5DAN
BITCOIN USD UPDATE🚀 “117,998.17” — We Hit the Trigger We pierced a massive rally threshold today (117,998.17) — a short squeeze or momentum flush — yet dollar and gold remain locked in ranges. That dissonance tells you this is a liquidity-game market, not a clean trend. We’re still trading in what I’d call an overpriced arena — volatility amplified, direction masked. Price action will mislead until a big macro break comes. The dollar remains boxed: Value Area High ~98.322 / Low ~96.747. Gold, meantime, is ripping higher under safe-haven flows, hitting record highs amid shutdown fears and rate cut bets. Meanwhile, bitcoin is getting a bullish tailwind. Whale accumulation, institutional demand, and macro narratives favoring digital gold are pushing sentiment. Macro catalysts (Fed, U.S. jobs, fiscal politics) could fuel either direction — but the setup is leaning toward asymmetric upside in risk assets if USD weakens. LOOK OUT: Liquidity hunts likely before clarity — expect fake-outs. Dollar must break its box for cross-pairs and cryptos to trend. Bitcoin is better aligned with the upside in this regime than dollar or gold.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CORE5DAN
US DOLLAR LIQUIDITY GAMES🇺🇸 US Dollar Range Politics – Liquidity Before Clarity The dollar isn’t trending — it’s negotiating. 📊 Current Setup U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 98.322 → testing the value area high Range Floor: 96.747 → the value area low Structure: Bearish range, with liquidity being hunted before any true direction emerges. 🏛️ Macro Backdrop Tariffs are reshaping global flows. Fiscal gridlock + shutdown risk clouds investor confidence. Inflation + Fed policy signals remain mixed. Every headline feels like an amendment to a bill no one fully understands. The result: the dollar drifts sideways in a liquidity-seeking phase. Traders should expect chop inside the box until a decisive catalyst (data, Fed action, or policy shift) provides clarity. 🌍 Cross Pair Impact This stalemate spills into the majors: EURUSD & GBPUSD → reflecting the same sideways ranges and fake-outs. USDJPY → volatility compressed, waiting for dollar direction. Crosses are trading in sympathy — liquidity hunts on both ends, with no clean trend until DXY escapes its range. 🧭 Takeaway: The dollar is boxed in by politics and policy. Patience rules here: trade the range, wait for the breakout.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
EUR/USD Macro + Technical TargetLiquidity Run Complete • EUR/USD swept last week’s key high and stalled. • Dollar Index (DXY) just balanced on its weekly range—classic setup for a euro fade if USD strength resumes. Macro Undercurrent • U.S. Side: September core PCE inflation held at 2.8% y/y, keeping the Fed cautious about rate cuts. Futures now price only ~40 bps of easing into Q1. • Eurozone Side: HICP inflation slowed to 2.4% and the ECB’s minutes flagged “weak growth, sticky wages.” Rate-cut odds for March keep rising. Levels to Watch • Resistance near 1.17540,todays High • Southbound magnets: 1.16455 Lows
Short
by CORE5DAN
Bitcoin Chart Marks Its 2 Big Next Stops: $105K → $98KBitcoin has spent three months consolidating near record highs. That kind of sideways grind usually ends with a liquidity hunt. If the dollar finishes its current swing higher, Bitcoin likely tags the mid-range support zone next. Two major downside targets remain on the map for the coming months. Probability of a flush lower sits around ~80% It’s a normal structural move: after heavy consolidation, price seeks liquidity before the next sustained leg. Dollar drifts lower as U.S. growth stays hot—Q2 GDP +3.8% and a government-shutdown risk on deck. Bitcoin presses $111K–112K resistance while whales quietly accumulate after recent liquidation spikes. Price is at the hinge: soft USD supports risk, but volatility is loaded. Trade the structure, not the noise.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
BTC USD PLAN Bitcoin’s chart is one thing, but the bigger story is what’s driving the money behind it. The Fed & Yields The Federal Reserve is still the invisible hand. Every surprise in rates—whether a hotter inflation print or a sudden hint of deeper cuts—moves global risk appetite. Lower real yields = cheaper capital = stronger bid for assets like BTC. A hawkish turn does the opposite. Institutional Flow Big money isn’t just buying dips—it’s writing new rules. Case in point: asset manager Strive is set to acquire about 5,800 BTC (≈ $675 million) through a corporate deal. Moves like this tighten available supply and add a slow, steady demand base. Bitcoin Technical View This week’s candle is shaping up bearish, and Monday will tell us if today’s Sunday session finishes the job. If the market doesn’t fill that daily gap, we’ll be watching Monday’s open closely. Right now the daily range runs from 113,999 down to 108,644. If the dollar pushes into higher liquidity zones, Bitcoin could feel the pressure and drift lower. The plan is simple: wait for a clear shift on the smaller time frames before making any move and calculate risk from there. Patience matters more than bravado—let the market come to you. For now, the setup still looks constructive, but it only pays to act when the levels confirm. Trade small, stay calm, and protect your capital first.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
US Dollar Flexes, Look For on 99.05Sunday War Map – A weekly candle this strong leaves a mark. The dollar printed a 96.77 low to 98.18 high—a full-bodied bullish bar that demands respect. Macro This week is stacked with U.S. data that can shake the pullback narrative: Tue 30 Sep – JOLTS & Consumer Confidence: first look at hiring demand and household mood. Wed 1 Oct – ISM Manufacturing PMI: factory pulse and price pressures. Thu 2 Oct – Durable Goods & Trade Data: capital-expenditure clues. Fri 3 Oct – Non-Farm Payrolls & Hourly Earnings: the heavyweight. A hot jobs print could delay the December Fed-cut story (futures still price ~70% odds). Technical Targets Expect an early-week pullback as traders digest that massive weekly bar. Two liquidity pools we’ve tracked for months were cleared last week; two upside targets still in play 98.2 and 98.3 remain before the chart reaches a true “bearish-range discount.” Keep eyes on the 99.05 volume node—a well-defined supply zone where cross-market reactions (EUR, gold, crypto) could spike. The dollar controls the tempo. Wait for the market to come to your levels; don’t chase the last candle.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
EUR/USD Mid-Range HoldThis week’s price action has done its job Two recent highs were taken out after the massive bull-back we mapped. First targets on the cross pairs are still open, so I’m standing by into the weekend—no new adds here. Right now EUR/USD sits mid-range. Bias remains lower if the dollar keeps its bid, but I’ll let next week’s closes confirm. Fresh Brookings research this week tied the dollar’s safe-haven status directly to U.S. trade policy. Even with the tariff drama earlier this year, current rates (≈17–18%) stay well below the 26% “tipping point,” leaving the us dollar reserve role intact. Fed Chair Powell’s recent remark that U.S. equities are “fairly highly valued” only adds to the cautious tone that supports the dollar. Next Week’s Data to Watch Tue – U.S. Consumer Confidence Wed – Eurozone CPI Flash Thu – U.S. Q2 GDP Final Fri – U.S. PCE Price Index & Personal Income/Spending Stronger U.S. numbers here would reinforce the dollar’s strength and keep pressure on EUR/USD.
Short
by CORE5DAN
Powell Flags Rich Valuations as Dollar Holds the High GroundOur plan from last month is unfolding: weekly liquidity pockets around 97–98 on the DXY have now been tapped, with first profit targets reached on several cross pairs. Technically, we see: EUR/USD divergence – euro pushed into absorption while the dollar closed higher. Heavy weekly liquidity – price action continues to respect the upper band near 98. From the macro side, Fed Chair Jerome Powell added a quiet but important layer. In his latest speech, he noted that U.S. equities appear “fairly highly valued,” a gentle reminder that financial conditions matter and valuations are stretched. He balanced that with a steady-hand message on policy, but the hint was clear: risk assets are not priced for perfection.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
US DOLLAR LIQUIDITY GAMES MAPThe U.S. Dollar is testing traders resolve. Price action keeps pressing higher, and a daily close above 97.394 would confirm a classic “fractal low” — the kind of structural pivot that lures late buyers before the real move unfolds. 3 Key Insights Macro Calendar – Stay alert: Thu – Final Q2 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders. Fri – Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, University of Michigan Sentiment (final). These are the week’s steering currents for USD flows. A daily close above 97.394 is the key trigger to confirm a fresh leg higher. • EUR/USD short bias remains valid while DXY stays bid, but expect intraday volatility around data releases.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
: DXY & BTC – Macro Calendar Meets Key LevelsThe macro tape stays busy this week: • Powell’s latest comments cooled equity risk. • The Bank of England announced changes to its foreign-currency reserve management. • OECD interim report flagged resilient but uneven global growth. • Gulf central banks cut rates while the Fed stays cautious. My Technical View Price action shows weekly buyers losing momentum while the dollar still presses higher. We’re trading around the volume-range midpoint, so expect chop, but momentum favors the dollar for now. Key DXY Levels Support: 110.600 – a decisive close below opens the path toward the 107-ish range. Deep liquidity zone: 102-area remains a magnet for market-maker discounting if selling accelerates. Higher-timeframe bias: still bullish range, so any short plays are tactical, not “hold forever.” Bitcoin BTC tracks macro flows closely; watch how it reacts if DXY tests those supports. A sustained dollar breakout could pressure BTC’s recent strength, while a DXY fade would give crypto another tailwind. Plan Stay patient around the mid-range chop. Let the daily closes decide if the 110.600 break is real before scaling positions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN