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Danielfadelay

EUR/USD Mid-Range HoldThis week’s price action has done its job Two recent highs were taken out after the massive bull-back we mapped. First targets on the cross pairs are still open, so I’m standing by into the weekend—no new adds here. Right now EUR/USD sits mid-range. Bias remains lower if the dollar keeps its bid, but I’ll let next week’s closes confirm. Fresh Brookings research this week tied the dollar’s safe-haven status directly to U.S. trade policy. Even with the tariff drama earlier this year, current rates (≈17–18%) stay well below the 26% “tipping point,” leaving the us dollar reserve role intact. Fed Chair Powell’s recent remark that U.S. equities are “fairly highly valued” only adds to the cautious tone that supports the dollar. Next Week’s Data to Watch Tue – U.S. Consumer Confidence Wed – Eurozone CPI Flash Thu – U.S. Q2 GDP Final Fri – U.S. PCE Price Index & Personal Income/Spending Stronger U.S. numbers here would reinforce the dollar’s strength and keep pressure on EUR/USD.
Short
by CORE5DAN
Powell Flags Rich Valuations as Dollar Holds the High GroundOur plan from last month is unfolding: weekly liquidity pockets around 97–98 on the DXY have now been tapped, with first profit targets reached on several cross pairs. Technically, we see: EUR/USD divergence – euro pushed into absorption while the dollar closed higher. Heavy weekly liquidity – price action continues to respect the upper band near 98. From the macro side, Fed Chair Jerome Powell added a quiet but important layer. In his latest speech, he noted that U.S. equities appear “fairly highly valued,” a gentle reminder that financial conditions matter and valuations are stretched. He balanced that with a steady-hand message on policy, but the hint was clear: risk assets are not priced for perfection.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
US DOLLAR LIQUIDITY GAMES MAPThe U.S. Dollar is testing traders resolve. Price action keeps pressing higher, and a daily close above 97.394 would confirm a classic “fractal low” — the kind of structural pivot that lures late buyers before the real move unfolds. 3 Key Insights Macro Calendar – Stay alert: Thu – Final Q2 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders. Fri – Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, University of Michigan Sentiment (final). These are the week’s steering currents for USD flows. A daily close above 97.394 is the key trigger to confirm a fresh leg higher. • EUR/USD short bias remains valid while DXY stays bid, but expect intraday volatility around data releases.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
: DXY & BTC – Macro Calendar Meets Key LevelsThe macro tape stays busy this week: • Powell’s latest comments cooled equity risk. • The Bank of England announced changes to its foreign-currency reserve management. • OECD interim report flagged resilient but uneven global growth. • Gulf central banks cut rates while the Fed stays cautious. My Technical View Price action shows weekly buyers losing momentum while the dollar still presses higher. We’re trading around the volume-range midpoint, so expect chop, but momentum favors the dollar for now. Key DXY Levels Support: 110.600 – a decisive close below opens the path toward the 107-ish range. Deep liquidity zone: 102-area remains a magnet for market-maker discounting if selling accelerates. Higher-timeframe bias: still bullish range, so any short plays are tactical, not “hold forever.” Bitcoin BTC tracks macro flows closely; watch how it reacts if DXY tests those supports. A sustained dollar breakout could pressure BTC’s recent strength, while a DXY fade would give crypto another tailwind. Plan Stay patient around the mid-range chop. Let the daily closes decide if the 110.600 break is real before scaling positions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
EUR/USD – Volume MapPrice is still holding a bullish lower range between 1.16595 and 1.19187. The main volume distribution sits mid-range, and today’s action feels like absorption—market makers testing liquidity rather than chasing a breakout. Key trigger to watch: If sellers push into the 1.17365 volume node, it opens the door for a deeper move toward the lower end of the range. Stay nimble; if that node holds, we could just grind sideways. Macro side-note: Dollar sentiment remains shaky after a 10% drop in 1H 2025 and growing chatter about fiscal risks and gold hedges. European investors have been keeping more capital at home, which can add undercurrents of euro support even when U.S. data wobbles. Bottom line: 1.17365 is the battleground. Break and hold below → watch for fresh lows. Hold and absorb → range trade continues.
Long
by CORE5DAN
US DOLLAR War Map stays simple right nowThe dollar’s been sliding for months, but we finally saw the range lows taken out after the FOMC spike, and that sets up the next move. Here’s how I’m reading it: Rotation lower is still the logical path unless politics or surprise news change the game. On the DXY chart, I’m watching for a heavy-volume node to act as a target for a short-term pullback higher. For cross-pairs, that means I’ll look for short setups while using the recent bullish dollar lows as day-to-day reference points. Key level to watch: around 98.7, where heavy bearish order-flow has been building. If the market keeps moving, it’s a straightforward trade plan: stay positive, take intraday signals, and let the bigger down-cycle play out.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
Bitcoin OutlookWeekend trade after the FOMC has been a ghost town—low volume and choppy, un-tradable price action. The dollar has been pinned inside a narrow hourly fractal range: high 116.211 / low 115.132. I’ve been waiting for a sharp dollar pullback with a news driver, but the broader macro picture keeps price in oversold territory. Timing the next big move is anyone’s guess. For now: Higher-timeframe bias: still unpredictable. Intraday (high-frequency) moves: perfectly tradable. Crypto: don’t expect a clean breakout this weekend. On the weekly map, there’s a bullish imbalance that still needs to be tapped. Expect any breakout to have a dose of manipulation—trade carefully.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
1
Dollar Weekly WrapThe dollar ripped to fresh lows early in the week on the FOMC spark and is now set to close with a heavy bearish rejection candle. Next week’s macro stack: Tue – U.S. PMI flash Thu – Q2 GDP final and Durable Goods Fri – Personal Income/Spending and PCE Price sits just below a five-week liquidity shelf around the 98.00 area. Technically the market is oversold near the lower range, so high probability to target next week 98ich highs and lower on cross pairs. lets see how it will play out!
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
BTCUSD – Liquidity Sweep & Weekend Fractals Key Levels • Major liquidity pocket tagged at 117,898.79. • After that sweep, price printed a string of bearish fractals. • Market makers are now likely eyeing the cluster of minor fractals at 117.4k, 118.6k, and 119.3k. Trade Recap All our targets were reached over the weekend. I’m flat now, but in hindsight a trailed stop would have captured more of the move as price kept running. Plan Forward Watching how price reacts around the 118k–119k zone for clues on the next leg. A decisive rejection here could open a deeper retrace; sustained acceptance sets up a fresh structure. Not financial advice—pure market structure analysis using the CORE 5 lens.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
DXY vs. EURUSD – Pre-FOMC DivergenceDollar Index (DXY) Yesterday’s move was fully absorbed inside a tight range, leaving the internal range high at 99.804 ahead of the Fed meeting. Liquidity is at 98.00 stacked above that zone; market makers could easily run the stops toward the 98 handle before any larger downside move. EURUSD Meanwhile, EURUSD broke out of its major range, giving us a new weekly structure with a key reference low at 1.13914. Cross-Market View This sets up a classic divergence: Dollar – trapped in a premium sell range, heavy liquidity overhead. Euro – fresh upside structure. For cross-pairs this often means sharp pullbacks or erratic price action as we approach the FOMC decision. Trade Notes Stay nimble and keep stops tight.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
BTCUSD Eyes 116,833 While Dollar Flexes Pre-NewsGood morning traders— Bitcoin is pressing toward 116,833.25 while the U.S. Dollar Index grinds into a fresh bullish range ahead of key U.S. data. Notably, there’s a major volume node near 11,861. We could see price hover or even dip into that pocket on the headline drop before any attempt at the higher target. Classic market-maker mind games: build liquidity, shake stops, then decide the real direction. Macro backdrop U.S. CPI tomorrow keeps rate-cut odds alive. Treasury yields firm, adding fuel to the dollar bid. Equity futures soft, hinting at defensive flows. Plan Keep stops tight and trailing, only ride trades backed by strong volume. Patience until post-news—let the data show the hand before sizing up. Stay nimble and let the market makers reveal their move. Happy trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
Pre-FOMC Crossfire US DOLLAR INDEXPre-FOMC Dollar War Map The weekly chart just printed a fourth straight lower high— a slow grind down while Friday’s close stayed red. Liquidity is stacked behind us, perfect fuel if the desks want to run stops before the Fed. Order flow shows massive resting bids around 96.962, the last structural block. If that line cracks, expect the move to be fast and brutal. Cross-markets are whispering the opposite: equities, metals, and crypto are coiled to run if the dollar slips. The headlines will call it a surprise. It isn’t. The map was drawn weeks ago. Focus on levels, not noise. Trade the reaction, not the prediction.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by CORE5DAN
1
The Buck’s Getting Bucked“Rule #1: Respect Bitcoin. Rule #2: When you think you’ve respected it enough…double it. Big players like BlackRock manage trillions of dollars. They usually keep their money in things like U.S. dollars and government bonds because that’s been the “safe spot” forever. But the dollar keeps losing buying power and the U.S. keeps adding debt. So these big funds are starting to put a small slice of their cash into Bitcoin—a digital money that nobody can print more of. It’s not that the dollar is disappearing tomorrow. They just want a backup that can’t be inflated away. When companies with that much money start buying, it makes Bitcoin look less like a fad and more like the next big “store of value.”
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
BTC/USD – Sunday Market ReadQuiet overnight tape, but the 115 200 order-block is still the hill the bulls are defending. Volume stayed thin through Asia, yet price hasn’t given up ground. Above, a fat negative volume node sits near 115 979 and that’s the real KEY area here, a clean break or a sharp rejection. Yesterday’s inside-bar kept price boxed in, and we’re now stretched at the top of the daily range. I’m watching the 113–114k area where volume thins out and buyers often step in. Big picture stays bullish, but I’d rather wait for a clean pullback or a real breakout above the highs before touching a new position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CORE5DAN
GOLD POWERS HIGHERThe U.S. dollar has been absorbing heavy flows for weeks, yet gold keeps ripping higher for the fourth straight week—a rare split that tells its own story. Softening U.S. Data – CPI and retail sales came in lighter, pushing Fed cut expectations higher and weighing on real yields. Central-Bank Buying – Emerging-market reserve managers continue record gold purchases for diversification. Safe-Haven Demand – Energy market jitters and ongoing geopolitical tension keep institutional bids under the metal. Dollar Liquidity Games – Despite dollar absorption, funding markets remain loose enough to support alternative stores of value. Gold shows no sign of daily-chart weakness. It’s a “buy mode” Market makers continue to press higher; every small-timeframe dip finds buyers. My approach: trail stops behind each daily low.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CORE5DAN