DAX - Up for nowCounting waves and assessing technical potential. Here’s what we see:
October 2020 - Completed the correction and started forming the 5th wave of the uptrend.
November 2025 - Making the final push, forming the last sub-wave 5 within the larger wave.
Key reversal level sits near 28,300 .
Note: this level coincides with the Fibonacci levels where the first wave ended in March 2000 .
Key targets:
Trend reversal expected at 28,300
Local correction at 26,900
Additional reversal points at 29,300 / 31,200
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DAX Index
DAX entered its 7-month Resistance Zone. Will it decline again?DAX (DE40) just entered its 7-month Higher Highs Zone, which has been the technical Resistance of a long-term Ascending Triangle that started on the May 27 2025 High.
With the 1D RSI overbought (above 70.00), the conditions for a new medium-term sell opportunity have emerged. All previous five Bearish Legs of this Triangle have been fairly symmetrical, with the lowest being -5.07%.
We expect at least a repeat of that, which gives us a 24100 Target that may coincide with a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1W MA50 (red trend-line) test. The latter is the market's long-term Support and will decide the trend for 2026.
If the 1D RSI hits 40.00 though before the price hits 24100, we will take profit on the sell regardless, as that has been the RSI's Symmetrical Support for the entirety of the Ascending Triangle.
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GE40 (DAX): Structural Breakout — Bulls Targeting 25,000
Macro Environment: Investors are currently digesting a "Santa Rally" while eyeing the upcoming Fed Minutes for clues on 2026 monetary policy. Despite thin year-end liquidity, the technical structure remains exceptionally bullish as fiscal reform optimism offsets manufacturing weakness.
Technical Analysis
The H4 chart reveals a decisive shift in market regime:
The Breakout: Price has cleared a multi-month descending trendline and a major horizontal ceiling at 24,400.
Base Formation: A clean accumulation zone (grey box) acted as a launchpad, confirming strong institutional demand at lower levels.
Momentum: The successful flip of previous resistance into support suggests a "Buy the Dip" environment.
Order Swing Set-up: LONG
Entry: 24,476 (Ideally on a retest of the breakout level)
Take Profit: 25,006 (Key psychological level & measured move target)
Stop Loss: 24,195 (Protected below the recent consolidation base)
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~ 1:1.8
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This post is for educational purposes and personal opinion only; it is not financial advice. Trading indices involves significant risk, especially during low-liquidity holiday periods. Please Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and manage your risk strictly.
DAX 3-Drives Pattern - Monster Short SignalOK, I admit, it’s very early to call this a three-drives pattern.
But as a trader, I always think, “What if?”
This is my way of preparing early in the process. It allows me to make educated decisions, rather than FOMO trades.
What I am waiting for now is a break of the yellow CIB line. Typically, after such a break, price pulls back to retest it. This behavior is similar to what we see when the median line of a fork is broken.
If this setup triggers, it would clearly be a long-term play. Or it could be over vevry quick via a very sharp, violent move to the south.
Let’s watch it and prepare for this thesis.
DAX BULLISH BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅DAX Price has delivered a clean bullish displacement above a key ICT level, confirming breakout strength. Previous resistance flips into support, with momentum aligned toward higher buy-side liquidity and continuation higher. Time Frame 9H.
LONG🚀
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DAX Free Signal! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DAX breaks and holds above a key horizontal demand, confirming bullish market structure. Smart money displacement and clean BOS suggest continuation toward higher liquidity, with pullbacks likely to be shallow before expansion resumes.
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Entry: 24,493
Stop Loss: 24,361
Take Profit: 24,684
Time Frame: 4H
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Buy!
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DAX WILL KEEP GROWING|LONG|
✅DAX breaks above a key supply zone, confirming bullish ICT market structure. Acceptance above prior highs signals smart money continuation, with upside expansion likely toward premium liquidity after a brief consolidation. Time Frame 8H.
LONG🚀
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YTD 2025 Market Performance Overview by ProjectSyndicate
🟡 1. YTD 2025 Market Performance Summary
Below is a snapshot of major asset class returns through 2025 YTD:
📊 Performance Infographic – YTD Returns (2025)
• Precious Metals
◦ 🥈 Silver: +150%
◦ 🥇 Platinum: +147%
◦ 🪙 Palladium: +92%
◦ 🟡 Gold: +64%
• Equity Markets
◦ 📈 Nikkei: +27%
◦ 📈 DAX: +22%
◦ 📈 QQQ: +22%
• Cryptocurrencies (Risk Assets)
◦ 🪙 Bitcoin (BTC): –4%
◦ 🪙 Ethereum (ETH): –10%
Insight: Classic safe havens precious metals vastly outperformed equities and digital assets through 2025, reflecting both macro uncertainty and the ongoing demand for real assets.
🌟 2. Key Investment Themes for 2025
🔶 A. Precious Metals Rally
Performance Drivers:
• Elevated inflation expectations and rate cut prospects pushed investors into hard assets.
• Silver’s industrial demand (EVs, solar, electrification) amplified its gain vs. gold.
• Platinum & palladium benefited from supply constraints and vehicle emissions tech demand.
• Safe-haven demand lifted gold to multi-decade highs.
🤖 B. AI Technology Sector
While we don’t have precise index returns in this report for AI technology stocks, broad AI adoption drove significant equity performance — especially among semiconductor and AI platform leaders:
• NVDA Nvidia — continued leadership in AI compute.
• AMD — robust gains from data-center and AI client demand.
🧬 C. Biotechnology & Innovation
Biotech remains a structural growth sector due to:
• Aging demographics and healthcare demand.
• New drug modalities and AI-assisted discovery.
• Continued regulatory approvals of new therapeutic classes.
Although biotech performance varies by sub-sector, its role in diversified growth portfolios remains strong.
⚠️ D. Crypto Markets — Flat to Red
• BTC and ETH posted slight declines YTD, contrasting sharply with metals and equities.
• Cryptocurrencies did not act as “digital gold” in 2025 — failing to preserve value relative to hard assets.
Implication: Risk on/off dynamics favored traditional safe havens over digital assets this year.
📅 3. 2026 Gold Price Forecasts — Institutional Consensus
Gold closed 2025 at record highs, and analysts project continued strength in 2026, with a wide range of forecast scenarios:
📈 Gold Price Forecasts for 2026
Forecast Source 2026 Target Notes
J.P. Morgan Global Research ~$5,055/oz (Q4) Strong demand & diversification drivers.
JP Morgan Private Bank / Argonaut ~$5,200–$5,300/oz Elevated institutional demand scenarios.
Goldman Sachs ~$4,900/oz Supported by central bank demand and rate cuts.
Bank of America ~$5,000/oz Broad institutional view.
UBS ~$4,500 (mid-year) Moderately bullish.
World Gold Council (Bear Scenario) ~$3,360–$3,990/oz Bearish if reflation reduces safe-haven demand.
Macro Consensus / Technical Models ~$4,000–$5,300/oz Consensus range based on surveys and models.
Longer-Term & High Estimates $6,000+ More speculative long forecast.
🧠 4. Strategy & Portfolio Implications
📌 Safe Haven Allocation
Given the robust 2025 performance and continued demand drivers, consider maintaining allocations to:
• Physical gold & ETFs
• Silver & industrial metals exposure
• Mining equities and royalty companies
📌 Growth & Innovation Exposure
Balance metals and defensive positioning with growth via:
• AI & semiconductors
• Biotechnology themes
• Select equities in cyclical markets
📌 Crypto Positioning
Given flat/red performance in 2025:
• Reassess crypto allocations relative to risk tolerance.
• Focus on long-term structural adoption catalysts if retaining exposure.
🏁 5. Conclusion
2025 reinforced the case for diversification across asset classes.
• Precious metals delivered standout returns — driven by safe haven demand, supply constraints, and monetary dynamics.
• AI technology and biotech remain secular growth themes, offering upside in equity portfolios.
• Crypto assets lagged traditional hedges, highlighting continued market segmentation in risk assets.
• 2026 gold price forecasts are broadly bullish, though with a wide range of scenarios — from conservative to highly aggressive institutional estimates.
DAX40 Momentum Shift: Layered Buy Setup for Clean Profit Flow🚀 DAX40 (GER40) BULLISH BREAKOUT ALERT! | Layer Strategy for MAX Gains 🚀
📈 DAX40 BULLISH BREAKOUT CONFIRMED! 🏆 (Swing/Day Trade Setup with Layer Entry)
📊 Idea: Strong bullish momentum on the GER40 / DAX 40 following a decisive breakout above key moving averages! Perfect setup for a structured "thief-style" layered entry to capitalize on the trend.
🔑 KEY LEVELS & PLAN:
Trend: Bullish (MA Breakout Confirmation)
Entry Strategy: "Thief" Layer Method 🎯
Use multiple BUY LIMIT orders at key dips: 23,600 | 23,700 | 23,800 | 23,900 (Add more layers based on your capital).
This averages your entry and maximizes opportunity on pullbacks.
Stop Loss (SL): 23,400 (Thief OG's Zone ⚠️).
IMPORTANT NOTE: Adjust your SL based on YOUR risk tolerance & strategy! This is a guide, not financial advice. Protect your capital.
Take Profit (TP): Target Zone: 24,500 🎯
Strong resistance & potential overbought trap area. Secure profits wisely!
REMINDER: Manage your own TP. Take money at your own risk.
💎 PRO TRADER NOTES:
This "thief" layer strategy requires patience & discipline. Let the market come to your orders. Never risk more than 1-2% per layer. Trade with a plan, not emotion!
🌍 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH (KEY CORRELATIONS):
FX:EURUSD : INVERSE Correlation. A stronger Euro can pressure DAX (export-heavy index). Watch for USD weakness supporting DAX rallies.
CAPITALCOM:US30 (Dow Jones) / SP:SPX (S&P 500): POSITIVE Correlation. US market strength often lifts European indices. Key for overall risk sentiment.
ICMARKETS:STOXX50 (Euro Stoxx 50): HIGH Correlation. Broader European index performance.
BUND Futures (/FGBL): INVERSE Correlation. Rising German bond yields (falling prices) can signal economic optimism, often supporting DAX.
EUR/GBP ( OANDA:EURGBP ): UK/EU economic relative strength flows.
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#DAX #GER40 #TradingView #Breakout #Bullish #SwingTrading #DayTrading #LayerStrategy #TradingPlan #Forex #Indices #Investing #Stocks #ThiefStrategy #EURUSD
DAX Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DAX taps into a well-defined horizontal supply area after a strong bullish leg, showing clear sell-side imbalance and distribution behavior. The rejection suggests smart money offloading at premium, with downside liquidity resting below recent structure as the next draw on price.
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Stop Loss: 24,485
Entry: 24,334
Take Profit: 24,202
Time Frame: 4H
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Sell!
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DAX potentially gearing up for a big breakout soonWith all major risk events now out of the way for the year, can we finally see the German DAX come out of its multi month consolidation in the days ahead? Recent price action has been bullish, albeit inside a wide consolidation range. But the downside has been limited and that gives the bulls the confidence needed to stick around and await a potential breakout in the coming weeks. The lengthy consolidation near record highs is usually a positive sign as it shown the buying pressure is building while the sellers haven't made any major ground. But rather than pre-empting it, let's wait for a clean breakout first, so this is one to watch for the holiday period and into early parts of 2026.
Germany's record fiscal spending is likely to give Europe's largest economy a major boost, which could then lead to further stock market gains. Well that is the hope anyway.
Key levels highlighted on the chart.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
EURUSD – 1-Hour Timeframe Tradertilki AnalysisMy friends, greetings,
I have prepared an EURUSD analysis for you.
My friends, if EURUSD manages to close a candle above the levels of 1.17632-1.17460, I will open a buy position. Immediately after that, I will update here in the trade active section to inform you where I opened the buy position and share the target level.
My friends, I share these analyses thanks to each like I receive from you. Your likes increase my motivation and encourage me to support you in this way.🙏✨
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DAX Rebound Signals Potential Upside After Key Support HoldGerman DAX was very non-directional, basically since June of 2025 and what I see is some very nasty moves on both sides of the market, but what got our attention recently is that the price has stopped at key support levels around 23k to 23300 area, from where we can see a very interesting and strong rebound. What is most important is that this rebound is coming after only three waves down from all-time highs, so it can be part of a WXY complex correction here in a fourth wave on a daily chart. Of course there can be some other labelings as well, but with any approach you will probably come out with the same idea that this whole price action in this five to six month range is corrective, and whenever we see a correction we know that sooner or later it should be fully retraced, meaning the price could already be headed back toward the highs from current levels.
Bounce looks impulsive, and it may have formed a bullish setup formation with waves 1 and 2, so we think that more gains are coming within wave 3, especially if breaks back above 24500 bullish confirmation level.
DAX Just confirmed the start of a very strong Bear Cycle.DAX (DE40) has been practically trading sideways since June 2025, a fair range on short-term time-frames but a tight one on long-term ones such as the 1M (monthly) that we are looking at today.
We posted this chart 2 months ago warning of a potential multi-year Top for the market's 16-year Channel Up (this time we view it on 1M instead on 1W) and only last month, it hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the April low.
We don't need to mention again the specifics of this pattern's cyclical behavior, such as why Phase 3 seems to have already topped due to hitting the 1.618 and 2.236 Fibonacci extensions on two different measurements. Those where analyzed extensively on the previous publication.
But what we do want to bring to you is that the 1M RSI has been trading downwards since hitting its 80.00 Resistance, a level that was last tested in 2007! This is a clear Bearish Divergence on a wide scale and couple with the fact that the 1M MACD just completed a Bearish Cross, all the basic conditions for a Cycle Top have been met. As you can see, since the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis, every 1M MACD Bearish Cross was formed on a market Top and signaled an aggressive correction.
As a result, we expect 2026 to be a Bear Cycle, and Phase 4 historically has corrected to at least the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, while also hitting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Our 18800 long-term Target fulfills both conditions. Notice also that the 1M RSI has a 14-year Support trend-line as well at 39.00. If this gets hit, it is historically the most optimal signal to buy for the long-term regardless of the price the market will be at the moment.
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GER40 Pullback Is Not a Reversal (Here’s Why)GER40 did not react at the 0.7–0.8 retracement of the previous bearish leg, indicating underlying strength. Price has since formed equal highs (EQH), which now serve as a logical liquidity target for the next upside move.
I expect a brief manipulation or pullback early in the week, followed by bullish expansion toward the 24,500 area.
I’ll share updates as the setup develops — follow for further analysis.
DAX Hidden Sell Signal on this 4H Golden Cross?DAX (DE40) has been trading within a Channel Up (green) since its 1W MA50 (red trend-line) market bottom and yesterday it formed a 4H Golden Cross. That is technically a bullish pattern but in the past 5 months, every such formation (3 in total) has been an indication of a market Top, thus a bearish signal.
More specifically, the most it took for DAX to form a top after a 4H Golden Cross within this time-frame, has been 4 days. And as you can see it's also been similar Channel Up patterns that peaked after this Cross, on an identical Lower Highs trend-line like the one that the index is about to test.
What's even more striking is that every sell-off that followed the Tops was exactly -5.15%. Identical on all 3 occasions. As a result, it is possible for DAX to decline as low as 23050 following the upcoming top. Since however the 1W MA50 is involved this time as a Support, you may want to book profits there earlier, around 23300, if you see it acting as a Support with strong buying pressure.
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DAX Stuck in Sideways Grind, Year-End-Boost or Continued RangingThe DAX index has been moving sideways since May without any signs of a trend change. Weak German economic data, a struggling auto industry, ongoing Ukraine risks, and de-globalization moves from the US all limit the upside potential. However, with the new year approaching, incoming portfolio adjustments could provide a conservative boost to the index.
From the year start to the March top, the DAX rose more than 18% in a three-month period. After a big selloff and sharp recovery due to the April tariff announcement from Trump, returns from the start of the year reached over 23% by May. During this five-month period, the DAX positively diverged from the S&P 500, reaching above two standard deviations from the five-year average. Since then, the S&P 500 has continued to clinch gains while the DAX has been moving sideways in a 1,700-point-wide channel.
Germany's deep slump is expected to end in 2026, increasing GDP growth from 0.3% to 1% (market consensus). German CPI is expected to stay close to the 2% target like the rest of the EU, and lower ECB rates might give a conservative boost to investments. The changes are positive but not a significant boost for the DAX.
Now that the DAX/S&P 500 ratio has returned to its average, the correlation between the US stock market and the DAX might increase again. Currently, the relative momentum index (RMI) has generated a buy signal, similar to the MACD. Crossovers below “30” on the RMI and below “0” on the MACD usually provide decent bullish signals. However, the main focus will remain on the 24,700 resistance. Unless it is broken to the upside, the sideways move can be expected to continue.
Higher PMI, factory orders, and industrial production data have already shown a positive impact on the index, and post-COVID seasonality for December is historically bullish in December. The question is whether that will be enough to trigger a breakout.
GER40 Trade Idea: The Perfect Pullback Before Liftoff!I enjoy trading GER40, especially during the London session, where we consistently see a phase of manipulation followed by a clean move toward the target. At the moment, the structure is showing a similar pattern.
Although the HTF suggests a broader correction toward the 22,000 area, I’m looking for a short-term setup for next week.
My scenarios:
1) Primary scenario:
A move lower into the first Daily FVG, which is also visible on the 4H and 1H timeframes—confirming its validity. After a test of this zone and a liquidity grab around the 23,700 area, I expect price to move upward toward the 0.70–0.79 Fibonacci retracement, where I will look to take profit.
2) Alternative scenario (less likely):
A deeper correction into the second Daily FVG, which is only visible on the Daily timeframe. Due to its limited confluence, this scenario has lower probability.
Execution plan:
I’ll wait for price to trade into one of these FVGs, then look for LTF reversal signals to execute a long position targeting the 0.70–0.79 Fibonacci zone.
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GER40 – 30-Minute Timeframe Tradertilki AnalysisGuys,
I have prepared a GER40 analysis for you.
On the 30-minute timeframe, if GER40 makes a pullback, I will open a buy position between 23,709 - 23,668.
My target will be the 24,000 level.
My friends, I share these analyses thanks to each like I receive from you.
Your likes increase my motivation and encourage me to support you in this way.🙏✨
Thank you to all my friends who support me with their likes.❤️






















