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DAX Index

GER40 Trade Idea: The Perfect Pullback Before Liftoff!I enjoy trading GER40, especially during the London session, where we consistently see a phase of manipulation followed by a clean move toward the target. At the moment, the structure is showing a similar pattern. Although the HTF suggests a broader correction toward the 22,000 area, I’m looking for a short-term setup for next week. My scenarios: 1) Primary scenario: A move lower into the first Daily FVG, which is also visible on the 4H and 1H timeframes—confirming its validity. After a test of this zone and a liquidity grab around the 23,700 area, I expect price to move upward toward the 0.70–0.79 Fibonacci retracement, where I will look to take profit. 2) Alternative scenario (less likely): A deeper correction into the second Daily FVG, which is only visible on the Daily timeframe. Due to its limited confluence, this scenario has lower probability. Execution plan: I’ll wait for price to trade into one of these FVGs, then look for LTF reversal signals to execute a long position targeting the 0.70–0.79 Fibonacci zone. If you enjoy this type of analysis, make sure to follow and like this idea.
FOREXCOM:GER40Long
by Almenio
DAX40 Momentum Shift: Layered Buy Setup for Clean Profit Flow🚀 DAX40 (GER40) BULLISH BREAKOUT ALERT! | Layer Strategy for MAX Gains 🚀 📈 DAX40 BULLISH BREAKOUT CONFIRMED! 🏆 (Swing/Day Trade Setup with Layer Entry) 📊 Idea: Strong bullish momentum on the GER40 / DAX 40 following a decisive breakout above key moving averages! Perfect setup for a structured "thief-style" layered entry to capitalize on the trend. 🔑 KEY LEVELS & PLAN: Trend: Bullish (MA Breakout Confirmation) Entry Strategy: "Thief" Layer Method 🎯 Use multiple BUY LIMIT orders at key dips: 23,600 | 23,700 | 23,800 | 23,900 (Add more layers based on your capital). This averages your entry and maximizes opportunity on pullbacks. Stop Loss (SL): 23,400 (Thief OG's Zone ⚠️). IMPORTANT NOTE: Adjust your SL based on YOUR risk tolerance & strategy! This is a guide, not financial advice. Protect your capital. Take Profit (TP): Target Zone: 24,500 🎯 Strong resistance & potential overbought trap area. Secure profits wisely! REMINDER: Manage your own TP. Take money at your own risk. 💎 PRO TRADER NOTES: This "thief" layer strategy requires patience & discipline. Let the market come to your orders. Never risk more than 1-2% per layer. Trade with a plan, not emotion! 🌍 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH (KEY CORRELATIONS): FX:EURUSD : INVERSE Correlation. A stronger Euro can pressure DAX (export-heavy index). Watch for USD weakness supporting DAX rallies. CAPITALCOM:US30 (Dow Jones) / SP:SPX (S&P 500): POSITIVE Correlation. US market strength often lifts European indices. Key for overall risk sentiment. ICMARKETS:STOXX50 (Euro Stoxx 50): HIGH Correlation. Broader European index performance. BUND Futures (/FGBL): INVERSE Correlation. Rising German bond yields (falling prices) can signal economic optimism, often supporting DAX. EUR/GBP ( OANDA:EURGBP ): UK/EU economic relative strength flows. 👇 LIKE & FOLLOW if you found this useful! 💬 COMMENT your entry levels or chart insights below! 🔔 Click the BELL on my profile for real-time idea alerts! #DAX #GER40 #TradingView #Breakout #Bullish #SwingTrading #DayTrading #LayerStrategy #TradingPlan #Forex #Indices #Investing #Stocks #ThiefStrategy #EURUSD
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by The-Thief
DAX Strong 4H break-out targeting 24300.DAX (DE40) has been trading within a Channel Up since the November 20 bottom on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and today it made a massive step upwards as it broke above its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 3 weeks. With the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) established as the Support on the previous Higher Low, we expect this Bullish Leg to hit at least the 2-month Lower Highs trend-line at 24300. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingShot
DAX This rally isn't over yet.DAX (DE40) has started a strong rebound following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) test, as we showed last week. This week the price broke again above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and is about to recover its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as well. The latter has never posed as a Resistance in 2025, so we expect the price to break and continue above it without problems. However, given that the prevailing pattern right now is a Channel Down, the uptrend is limited to its top (Lower Highs trend-line). With the previous Bullish Leg making a +6.43% rise, we expect a symmetric rise this time around to, thus targeting 24350 short-term. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingShot
DAX: When Chopy Price Action Calls Next Clear Move German DAX was very non-directional, basically since June of 2025 and what I see is some very nasty moves on both sides of the market, but what got my attention recently is that the price has stopped at key support levels around 23k to 23300 area, from where we can see a very interesting and strong rebound. What is most important is that this rebound is coming after only three waves down from all-time highs, so it can be part of a WXY complex correction here in a fourth wave. Of course there can be some other labelings as well, but with any approach you will probably come out with the same idea that this whole price action in this five to six month range is corrective, and whenever we see a correction we know that sooner or later it should be fully retraced, meaning the price could already be headed back toward the highs from current levels. So I think that as long as we hold 23k, there can be some potential opportunities on intraday retracements on smaller time frames. GH
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by ew-forecast
Is the DAX Preparing for a Monster Rally? The Structure Says So.The DAX continues to follow a well-defined Elliott Wave structure across the higher time frames. Following the completion of Wave 1 at the prior cycle top, the subsequent corrective phase retraced efficiently into the 0.618 Fibonacci region, establishing a structurally sound Wave 2 low. Since then, price has progressed through a multi-year impulsive advance, with internal subdivisions aligning cleanly with higher-probability Fibonacci extensions. Current price action is positioned within the latter stages of an extended Wave 3 sequence, where the 2.618 extension zone presents a significant confluence region for a potential medium-term top. A controlled corrective phase is expected thereafter, forming Wave 4 before the index resumes its structural bullish trajectory toward the projected Wave 5 completion. This long-term framework remains valid as long as structural lows are preserved, with the broader trend supporting continued upside over the coming cycles. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading financial markets involves risk, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management. If you found this analysis valuable, leave a like, drop your thoughts in the comments, and follow for more structured market insights.
FX:GER30Long
by fibcos
German stocks about to drop 7%? (DAX 40)Setup Breakdown from horizontal range Lowest weekly close since June Breakdown below ‘green’ weekly trendline RSI back at 35-40 support Commentary The DAX is sitting right on the support level of its long term range. The index could rally back into its range, offering reversal setups to go long, or it could continue to breakdown. Should it be the latter, projecting the height of the range lower would target 21500 - a demand area preceding the April rally. Strategy Option 2: Sell rebound towards 48,000 supply zone Option 1: Sell the breakdown below 23,000
FOREXCOM:GER40Short
by jasperlawler
Dax Short Term Sell IdeaH1 - Strong bearish move. No opposite signs. Currently it looks like a pullback is happening. Expecting bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EIGHTCAP:GER40Short
by VladimirRibakov
DAX Will the 1W MA50 support once more?DAX (DE40) has been trading within a 3-year Channel Up, essentially for the entirety of its Bull Cycle, following the October 2022 bottom of the Inflation Crisis. The most common Support, hence optimal long-term buy signal/ entry within this pattern, has been the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), having been hit three times and providing on all instances massive rallies. Every time that or the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) were hit, the rallies always hit the previous High/ Resistance 1 initially before either a consolidation or a slight pull-back. As a result, if the market hits the 1W MA50 but manages to close the 1W candle above it, we expect the resulting rally to hit at least 24700 (Resistance 1). Notice also that every long-term Bullish Leg was confirmed after the 1W RSI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by TradingShot
GER40 Intraday Technical AnalysisGER40 Intraday Technical Analysis - 10 Nov 2025 DAX 40 trades at 23,866 (12:25 PM UTC+4) with momentum compressing ahead of Europe close. Market Context: Wyckoff distribution after vertical rally; Dow Theory shows secondary correction forming; Gann 1x1 angle rests at 23,820. Daily/4H: 1D spinning top at 23,900 with RSI divergence; 4H broadening wedge between 23,780 support and 23,940 resistance. 1H/30M: 1H forming head-and-shoulders neckline 23,820; 30M Bollinger squeeze plus VWAP flattening signals breakout risk. 15M/5M: 15M descending triangle; 5M falling wedge testing 23,840; Ichimoku Tenkan23,940 with volume +20%; SL 23,880; TP 24,040. Breakdown Short: 1H close <23,760; SL 23,820; TP 23,640. Key Levels: Resistance 23,900/23,940/24,040. Support 23,780/23,760/23,640. Indicators: RSI divergence (4H), BB squeeze (30M), anchored VWAP 23,800, EMA21 flattening, Ichimoku cloud turning neutral. Risk Notes: Watch for bull trap above 23,940; ECB speakers 14:00 UTC elevate volatility; risk ≤1% per setup. Educational analysis only; follow your trading plan and manage risk.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by sunya
GER40 (DAX INDEX) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS# 📊 GER40 (DAX INDEX) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🎯 ## Week of November 10-14, 2025 | Intraday & Swing Trade Mastery Close Price: 23,748.9 Points | Entry Point: November 8, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4 📈 ## 🔍 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - MULTI-TIMEFRAME PERSPECTIVE The DAX (GER40) is trading at a pivotal technical juncture with multi-timeframe alignment suggesting imminent breakout potential. Elliott Wave analysis reveals completion of corrective cycles, positioning for the next impulse leg targeting 24,200-24,500 extension. Bollinger Bands display classic compression pattern —volatility squeeze preceding directional expansion. RSI across all timeframes maintains neutral bullish bias (55-65 range)—optimal momentum positioning without extreme overbought. Volume clustering at 23,700-23,800 represents institutional accumulation foundation. Wyckoff spring tests near 23,500 provide aggressive entry triggers. Harmonic pattern convergence at 23,950-24,050 resistance signals breakout confirmation zone with measured move targets extending to 24,300+. ## 📊 TIMEFRAME-BY-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS ### 5-MINUTE (Scalping Execution) ⚡ Candlestick Formation: Japanese candles reveal micro-consolidation breakout attempts with successive hammer/engulfing patterns at support zones. Evening Star rejection formations detected at 23,850-23,900 intraday resistance. Elliott Wave 5M: Sub-wave completion indicates Wave 4 micro-consolidation finalizing. Wave 5 breakout anticipated above 23,800-23,850 with targets 23,920-24,000 (measured move). Bollinger Bands: Upper compression mode—middle band at 23,750 acts as pivot point. Lower band rejection (23,680-23,710) creates scalp-long setups. Squeeze breakout targets 23,900+ on volume. RSI (14) Analysis: RSI oscillating 44-60 range—neutral with minor divergences forming. Bullish divergence at 23,720 support signals buyer engagement; caution on 60+ resistance approach. Micro Support/Resistance: 23,680 (micro-support) | 23,720 (POC cluster) | 23,780 (pivot) | 23,850 (intraday resistance) | 23,920 (scalp target) Volume Signature: Volume concentrated 23,740-23,760 zone—institutional marker. Breakout volume >40% above average required above 23,850 for sustained move above 23,950. VWAP Alignment: Price oscillating around session VWAP at 23,745—each touch generates scalp opportunity. Upper VWAP band at 23,880; lower support at 23,680. ### 15-MINUTE (Quick Swing Gateway) 🎢 Candlestick Patterns: Engulfing bars forming at support zones—bullish engulfing at 23,710 zone confirms reversal attempts. Three-candle patterns (flag continuation) with 35-55 pip breakout potential. Harmonic Pattern Recognition: Gartley Pattern potential completion near 23,700-23,750 PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). Exceptional risk-reward at 1:3.2 for harmonic traders. Butterfly variant also forming at secondary levels. Wyckoff Accumulation Phase: Classic accumulation evident—small barometer move (SBM) nearing completion. Spring test anticipated 23,580-23,620 zone; markup phase targets 24,050-24,150. Bollinger Bands (15M): Band squeeze intensifying—historical volatility expansion suggests 50-80 pip moves follow. Upper band resistance at 23,920; lower band support at 23,620. Volume Profile (15M): Point of Control (POC) at 23,740—prime concentration zone. Volume surge >50% required confirming breakout above 23,900. Imbalances favor upside probability. Ichimoku Cloud (15M): Price consolidating below cloud edge—Tenkan-sen at 23,880 = resistance pivot. Kijun-sen (23,820) = critical secondary support. Cloud support 23,650-23,700. EMA Structure: EMA 9 (23,745) above EMA 21 (23,715)—bullish alignment confirmed. Price remaining above both = intraday strength maintained. ### 30-MINUTE (Intraday Swing Axis) 🔄 Pattern Formation: Symmetrical Triangle pattern consolidating with apex near 23,950. Ascending triangle variant shows bullish bias—breakout above 23,900 targets 24,050-24,150 extension. Dow Theory Application: Confirming higher highs/higher lows structure. Secondary trend bullish; pullbacks to EMA 20 (23,760) = optimal swing entry zones. RSI Divergence Setup: Positive RSI divergence confirmed—price making lower lows (23,680) while RSI forms higher lows (42 level). Classic reversal setup targeting 23,950 minimum. Exponential Moving Average: EMA 9 (23,760) = core support. EMA 21 (23,715) = secondary support. EMA 50 (23,600) = structural hold level. Bullish ribbon alignment intact. Support Architecture: 23,600 (EMA 50/structural) | 23,680 (demand zone) | 23,720 (volume cluster) | 23,760 (EMA 9 dynamic) Resistance Architecture: 23,850 (triangle formation) | 23,950 (measured move target) | 24,050 (weekly resistance) | 24,150 (extension) Volume Analysis (30M): Increasing volume on recent bars—accumulation signature strong. Buy volume exceeding sell volume confirms institutional interest. ### 1-HOUR (Core Swing Trade Foundation) 🎯 Elliott Wave Structure: Major wave analysis suggests Wave 3 completion near 24,100. Current Wave 4 correction targets 23,750-23,850 support zone. Wave 5 impulse anticipated—target: 24,300-24,450. Pennant Formation: Classic Bullish Pennant pattern forming—breakout confirmation above 23,900 validates pattern. Pole height measured move = 24,200+ target. Bollinger Bands (1H): Upper band at 24,050 = squeeze breakout target. Middle band (23,900) = bullish support. Lower band rejection (23,650) creates premium swing longs with excellent R/R. VWAP Daily: DAX trading above daily VWAP at 23,720—bullish gradient confirmed. Each hourly candle close above VWAP strengthens continuation probability. Volume Profile Hotspot: Heavily traded at 23,720-23,800 (accumulation) and 23,900-23,950 (resistance cluster). Imbalances above 24,000 suggest vacuum-fill potential. Ichimoku Cloud Alignment: Price above Senkou Span A (23,850) & Span B (23,780)—cloud thickness strong support indicator. Chikou Span above candles = bullish confirmation. Cloud color: BULLISH GREEN. Gann Theory Application: 45-degree angle from swing low (23,500) establishes rally trajectory. Resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci extension (23,950) precedes aggressive breakout phase. Support Tiers 1H: 23,600 (structural hold) | 23,700 (EMA support) | 23,750 (Kijun-sen) | 23,800 (accumulation zone) Resistance Tiers 1H: 23,900 (breakout trigger) | 23,950 (extension) | 24,050 (major level) | 24,150 (impulse target) ### 4-HOUR (Swing Trade Thesis Foundation) 💼 Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern: Potential IH&S formation completing—left shoulder (23,450), head (23,350), right shoulder completing (23,550-23,650). Neckline breakout at 23,900 targets 24,100-24,250 extension. Wyckoff Accumulation Deep Dive: Institutional buying signature evident—SBM completion imminent. Spring test to 23,500-23,550 anticipated; subsequent markup phase targets 24,150-24,350. RSI 4H Analysis: RSI at 58-68 range—bullish bias maintained. Room for upside extension without extreme overbought. RSI above 75 targets 24,200+; below 35 = defensive posture required. Cup & Handle Formation: Potential bullish Cup pattern visible—handle stabilization near 23,750-23,850. Breakout above handle (23,950) targets cup depth extension = 24,150-24,250. EMA Ribbon Structure: EMA 8 (23,780), EMA 13 (23,760), EMA 21 (23,715), EMA 50 (23,600), EMA 200 (23,200)—BULLISH ALIGNMENT PERFECT. Compression/expansion cycles identify momentum phases. Support Tiers 4H: 23,500 (structural support) | 23,600 (accumulation) | 23,720 (pivot) | 23,800 (demand cluster) Resistance Tiers 4H: 23,900 (key breakout) | 23,950 (extension) | 24,050 (major target) | 24,150 (weekly projection) Volume Signature 4H: Accumulation volume bars > distribution bars—bullish bias maintained. Volume nodes clustering at 23,720-23,800 indicate institutional support. ### DAILY CHART (Macro Swing Thesis) 📅 Elliott Wave Macro: We're potentially in Wave 3 of larger cycle—aggressive expansion still possible. Wave structure supports break of 24,050 targeting 24,300-24,500 daily close objectives. Double Bottom Recognition: Historical Double Bottom pattern near 23,200-23,350 support—confirmed breakthrough above 23,900 neckline triggered. Second target near 24,200-24,300. Bollinger Bands Daily: Upper band at 24,300 = realistic daily target. Mean (23,950) = healthy pullback support. Band slope indicates volatility expansion—expect 200-350 point daily ranges. Volume Profile Daily: Strong buying volume bar at 23,500-23,700 zone—institutional accumulation marker established. Selling volume decreasing significantly—demand controls trend. Ichimoku Cloud Daily: Cloud thickness growing—bullish trend strengthening substantially. Cloud support around 23,700-23,850 zone. Kumo breakout anticipated—targets cloud top at 24,000-24,100. Harmonic Analysis Deep: Butterfly Pattern potential completion—PRZ at 23,900-23,950 suggests reversal zone OR breakout confirmation. Confluence amplifies probability of extension. Gann Angles & Fibonacci: 50% retracement (23,600) + 61.8% extension (24,100) = key reversal zones. Gann fan angles suggest 24,000-24,100 as structural resistance before continuation. Key Daily Support: 23,350 (psychological/structural) | 23,500 (accumulation zone) | 23,650 (demand level) | 23,750 (midpoint) Key Daily Resistance: 23,900 (breakout trigger) | 23,950 (extension) | 24,050 (measured move) | 24,200 (weekly target) Trend Confirmation: Higher highs & higher lows maintained—uptrend intact. Daily close above 24,000 = strong continuation signal targeting 24,300+ next level. ## 🎪 TRADING SETUP PLAYBOOK - NOV 10-14 ### BULLISH SCENARIO (Probability: 78%) ✅ Trigger: 4H candle close above 23,950 + volume surge (>45% above average) + RSI above 62 Entry Zone: 23,850-23,900 (with breakout confirmation) Target 1: 23,950 (TP1) | Target 2: 24,050 (TP2) | Target 3: 24,200 (TP3) | Target 4: 24,300 (TP4) Stop Loss: 23,700 (below EMA/structural support) Risk/Reward: 1:3.1 (exceptional asymmetric setup) Trade Duration: 18-72 hours (prime swing window) ### BEARISH SCENARIO (Probability: 22%) ⚠️ Trigger: Daily close below 23,800 + volume increase + RSI divergence failure Entry Zone: 23,950-24,050 (short setup) Target 1: 23,900 (TP1) | Target 2: 23,800 (TP2) | Target 3: 23,700 (TP3) Stop Loss: 24,150 (above resistance) Risk/Reward: 1:1.6 (acceptable but lower probability) Trade Duration: Watch for trend reversal confirmation first ## ⚠️ VOLATILITY & OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD CONDITIONS Current Volatility Status: Moderate compression → Expect significant expansion imminent 5M/15M RSI: 44-60 range (neutral)—room for 20-40 point movements | Scalp target zones 30M/1H RSI: 52-68 range (bullish bias, safe zone)—sweet spot for swing entries 4H RSI: 58-72 range—approaching caution zone but room to extend | Safe for core swings Daily RSI: 62-75 range (approaching extremes)—be defensive if daily RSI>78 | Take profits aggressively Overbought Recognition Points: RSI daily >77 combined with upper Bollinger Band rejection = immediate profit-taking Ichimoku cloud top penetration fails (bearish candle rejection) = trend exhaustion signal Volume declining on breakout attempt = false breakout warning signal Harmonic pattern PRZ exact hit without follow-through = reversal likely imminent Oversold Bounce Setups: RSI 1H <32 on support touch = high-probability bounce back to 23,900-23,950 Price below EMA 50 (23,600) + RSI <30 = aggressive accumulation zone Spring test below 23,550 with volume surge = Wyckoff spring reversal trigger Harmonic pattern PRZ support bounce = measured move extension targets activated ## 🎯 ENTRY & EXIT OPTIMIZATION STRATEGY ### OPTIMAL ENTRY TIMING For Scalpers (5M): RSI bounce from 42-48 zone after Band lower touch = 15-25 point scalp (1-3 min holds) For Quick Swings (15M-30M): 15M candle close above 23,850 with 4H alignment = 80-120 point swing (30 min-2 hour holds) For Core Swings (1H-4H): 4H pennant breakout above 23,950 on volume = 200-350+ point target (hold 12-48 hours) For Position Swings (Daily): Daily close above 24,050 = continuation play targeting 24,200-24,300 (hold 5-7 days) Best Entry Windows: Frankfurt open (7:00 CET), London open (8:00 CET), NY open (14:30 CET) ### EXIT STRATEGIES & PROFIT TAKING Take Profit Levels: TP1: Fibonacci 38.2% (23,950) | TP2: Harmonic PRZ (24,000) | TP3: Daily Band upper (24,150) | TP4: Weekly target (24,300) Stop Loss Placement: Always below most recent swing low + 15 points (strict risk management priority) Trailing Stops: Activate at TP2—trail with 35-45 point buffer for 4H+ trades (lock in profits) Breakeven Exit: Move stops to entry after 1:1 risk/reward achieved—eliminate emotional trading Partial Profit Strategy: Close 25% at TP1 | 25% at TP2 | 25% at TP3 | Let 25% run to TP4 (maximize winners) ## 🔔 REVERSAL & BREAKOUT RECOGNITION CHECKLIST ### REVERSAL SIGNALS TO MONITOR: RSI positive divergence (lower price lows, higher RSI lows) = bullish reversal setup high probability Candlestick engulfing patterns at support/resistance zones = trend reversal confirmation strong signal Volume profile breakdowns (declining volume on breakout attempts) = false move warning immediate Ichimoku Cloud rejection (price fails to penetrate cloud layer) = structural resistance confirmed Harmonic pattern completion at exact PRZ = reversal zone probability increases significantly Elliott Wave 5th wave failure (truncation) = impulse completion = reversal imminent trigger Gann angle break through significant angle = trend line break = reversal trigger activated ### BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION RULES: Close beyond resistance with >40% volume surge above average = confirmed breakout signal strong RSI crosses above 60 for bullish breakout, below 45 for bearish breakout confirmation VWAP alignment with directional move = institutional participation confirmation strong Bollinger Band breakout with band expansion (squeeze release) = volatility expansion confirmed immediate Multiple timeframe confluence (5M + 15M + 1H + 4H aligned) = highest probability setup attainable Ichimoku Cloud break (price clears all clouds with bullish candles) = strong continuation signal Volume imbalance (ask volume > bid volume) = directional sustain likelihood increases significantly ## 💡 WEEK FORECAST SUMMARY - NOV 10-14 Monday (10th): 🌍 Consolidation continuation near 23,750-23,850 zone. Range-bound trading anticipated. Early breakout direction watch crucial. Entry setups favor reversal plays at support. Tuesday-Wednesday (11-12th): 📈 Prime breakout window opens —23,900 represents key decision point. Expect 150-250 point daily volatility. Breakout confirmation targets 24,000-24,050 extension. This is the optimal swing trade window. Thursday (13th): ⚠️ Potential profit-taking pullback after breakout (if triggered). Support retest of 23,950-23,850. Buying opportunity if pullback holds above 23,750. Friday (14th): 📊 Weekly close pattern formation critical. Extension run anticipated if above 24,050. If above 24,100 = week target 24,200-24,300 achieved. End-of-week positioning for next week. ## 📍 CRITICAL CONFLUENCE ZONES - KEY TARGETS 23,500-23,550: Major support zone (accumulation marker, Wyckoff spring area, structural hold) 23,650-23,750: Secondary support (EMA 9, demand cluster, psychological level, volume POC) 23,800-23,850: Micro-resistance cluster (consolidation squeeze zone, early breakout resistance) 23,900-23,980: KEY BREAKOUT ZONE (triangle apex, harmonic confluence, all timeframe resistance) 24,000-24,100: Primary upside target (Elliott Wave 5, daily Band upper, measured move extension) 24,150-24,250: Secondary extension target (Gann level, macro resistance, wave projection) 24,300+: Weekly/monthly target (if wave 5 impulse extends beyond base projections) ## 🏆 RISK MANAGEMENT RULEBOOK ✅ 1) Position Sizing: Never risk >2% of account equity per single trade ✅ 2) Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2.5 R/R on every entry—1:3+ preferred for swing trades ✅ 3) Profit Scaling: Close 25-50% at 1:1 ratio, let remainder run to 1:2+ targets ✅ 4) Stop Loss Discipline: Place stop IMMEDIATELY on entry—no exceptions (15-20 points tight) ✅ 5) Breakout Confirmation: Avoid FOMO—wait for candle close confirmation + volume surge always ✅ 6) Daily Support Respect: Psychological holds (round numbers 24,000) matter—trade confluence not against ✅ 7) Time Management: Exit losing trades quickly (max 1:0.5 acceptable for educational losses) ✅ 8) Macro Alignment: Always check daily/4H bias before taking 1H or lower trades ## #GER40 #DAX #DAXINDEX #TRADINGSETUP #TECHNICALANALYSIS #ELLIOTTWAVE #HARMONICPATTERN #BREAKOUTTRADING #SWINGTRADER #DAYTRADING #INTRADAY #INDICES #TRADINGVIEW #BOLLINGER BANDS #RSI #ICHIMOKU #VWAP #TRADINGSTRATEGY #WYCKOFFMETHOD #GANNTHEORY #DOWTHEORY #TECHNICALS #ANALYSIS #SUPPORTANDRESISTANCE #VOLUMEANALYSIS #OVERBOUGHT #OVERSOLD #REVERSAL #STOCKINDEXTRADING #GERMANYINDEX #BREAKOUTSETUP #TRADERSOFTWITTER #TECHNICALTRADER #CANDLESTICK #PATTERRECOGNITION #CHARTANALYSIS #DAYTRADER ## 🎁 BONUS: DAILY PRE-MARKET CHECKLIST Use this every morning before market open: ☑️ Check daily RSI (should be 60-70 for bullish bias continuation) ☑️ Identify support/resistance zones (23,700 | 23,850 | 23,950 | 24,100) ☑️ Verify 4H chart alignment (pennant/IH&S pattern status update) ☑️ Check Ichimoku cloud position (above/below = trend confirmation signal) ☑️ Review 1H Elliott Wave count (which wave are we trading exactly?) ☑️ Scan volume profile (POC = likely rejection zone area) ☑️ Set entry orders + stop losses BEFORE Frankfurt market opens ☑️ Plan 3 Take Profit levels before entering any position ☑️ Monitor economic calendar (ECB events, German data releases) ## 🌐 EUROPEAN SESSION NOTES The DAX trades primarily during Frankfurt hours (7:00-17:30 CET) . Highest volatility typically occurs: Frankfurt Open (7:00-8:00 CET): Initial direction breakout—watch for 50-100 point moves London Overlap (8:00-12:00 CET): Prime trading hours —best liquidity + volatility combination NY Open (14:30 CET): Secondary volatility surge—often confirms/reverses DAX direction 💡 Disclaimer: This technical analysis is educational only. Always conduct your own due diligence and implement appropriate risk management. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly within your risk tolerance. Use stop losses on every position. Not financial advice. Analysis Created: November 8, 2025 | Valid Through: November 14, 2025 | Updated Daily
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by sunya
DAX 5-month Rectangle approaching the 1D MA200. Buy Signal.DAX (DE40) has been trading sideways within a large 1D Rectangle for the past 5 months. Since the October 09 High the price has been declining on a Bearish Leg that is about to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 09 2025, the bottom of the Tariff War. Given that this is just above the bottom of the Rectangle, it constitutes a very strong Buy Signal. We have seen 4 Bullish Legs initiating on this level within this pattern and they all reached at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, our current Target on DAX is 24350. Notice also how the 1D RSI has also entered its own Support Zone. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingShot
DAX: Sideways at ATH, Q3 Coil → Q4 Pop?Since May the DAX has moved sideways at/near all-time highs. Q3 has been chop as expected, but momentum hasn’t broken—buyers keep defending the 23.4–23.7k shelf. I’m leaning into seasonality and prior behavior: staying long for a push into quarter-end, then I’ll reassess. Plan on scaling out into 24,500 → 24,600 → 24,700 (ATH supply), with risk tucked below the recent range floor. Technicals • Structure: Multi-month range at the highs; no decisive lower-low. The 4H view shows repeated rejections of a minor descending supply line while the base at ~23,6xx keeps holding. • Entry zone: 23,620–23,720 (range support / prior VWAP shelf). • Invalidation: daily close below 23,200–23,300 (range break). • Targets: 24,000 (psych), 24,300 (mid-supply), 24,600 (ATH line from your chart). • Breadth/rotation clues (dashboard): Financials firm, tech mixed, autos soft; overall market still balanced rather than risk-off—consistent with consolidation, not reversal. • Tape feel: Repeated “muted opens” with buyers showing up later in the session fits the grind-higher playbook into month/quarter end. Fundamentals • Macro tone: US risk appetite improved after the Fed’s first cut, even as Powell tempered hopes of an aggressive path—enough to cap deep corrections but still supportive of equities. European desk notes point to a restrained start, not a bear impulse. • Germany specifics: Headlines flag auto-sector warnings (VW/Porsche) weighing on sentiment, but banks and select industrials offset—matching the mixed sector board rather than broad deterioration. • Flows/seasonality: Quarter-end & Q4 seasonality often favor indices that have consolidated at highs; with DAX still ~1k points off the record, a range breakout toward 24.3k–24.65k is a reasonable path before re-calibrating. • Risks to thesis: Another round of negative guidance from autos, hotter-than-expected US data re-pricing fewer cuts, or a clean daily close below 23.2k (range failure). Trade what’s on the chart, respect the invalidation, and pay yourself into strength. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by AR33_
Is Germany's Economic Success Just an Illusion?Germany's benchmark DAX 40 index surged 30% over the past year, creating an impression of robust economic health. However, this performance masks a troubling reality: the index represents globally diversified multinationals whose revenues originate largely outside Germany's struggling domestic market. Behind the DAX's resilience lies fundamental decay. GDP fell 0.3% in Q2 2025, industrial output reached its lowest level since May 2020, and manufacturing declined 4.8% year-over-year. The energy-intensive sector suffered even steeper contraction at 7.5%, revealing that high input costs have become a structural, long-term threat rather than a temporary challenge. The automotive sector exemplifies Germany's deeper crisis. Once-dominant manufacturers are losing ground in the electric vehicle transition, with their European market share in China plummeting from 24% in 2020 to just 15% in 2024. Despite leading global R&D spending at €58.4 billion in 2023, German automakers remain trapped at Level 2+ autonomy while competitors pursue full self-driving solutions. This technological lag stems from stringent regulations, complex approval processes, and critical dependencies on Chinese rare earth materials, which could trigger €45-75 billion in losses and jeopardize 1.2 million jobs.   Germany's structural rigidities compound these challenges. Federal fragmentation across 16 states paralyzes digitalization efforts, with the country ranking below the EU average in digital infrastructure despite ambitious sovereignty initiatives. The nation serves as Europe's fiscal anchor, contributing €18 billion net to the EU budget in 2024, yet this burden constrains domestic investment capacity. Meanwhile, demographic pressures persist, though immigration has stabilized the workforce; highly skilled migrants disproportionately consider leaving, threatening to transform a demographic solution into brain drain. Without radical reform to streamline bureaucracy, pivot R&D toward disruptive technologies, and retain top talent, the disconnect between the DAX and Germany's foundational economy will only widen.
XETR:DAXShort
by UDIS_View
DAX weekly pivot map for 3 to 7 November 2025Why this matters Next week is a sequence market. Final PMIs set tone. Germany prints factory orders and industrial production. The week closes with the U.S. jobs report. That mix often compresses ranges around fair value until something cracks. So the plan is one grid, two scenarios, three rules. Chart to publish Timeframe 1H on GER40. Add a single grid from last week Xetra cash. High 24 348.59. Low 23 922.95. Close 23 958.30. Pivot 24 076.61. R1 24 230.28. R2 24 502.25. R3 24 655.92. S1 23 804.64. S2 23 650.97. S3 23 379.00. Optional helpers. VWAP. Cumulative delta. No extra overlays. Keep it clean so the levels do the talking. What I am watching on tape How price behaves around the pivot during quiet periods. The first pass into R1 or S1 without a fresh release often mean reverts. If a surprise hits, the grid becomes a runway for extension. The job is not to predict. The job is to recognise when ranges are intact and when a genuine break is underway. Catalysts and session notes Germany releases often land near 08:00 CET. Factory orders midweek. Industrial production the day after. The U.S. Employment Situation prints Friday at 08:30 ET. That one moves global curves and the euro which feeds back into exporters. I do not hold risk through the print. I would rather enter the follow through once the first sweep finishes. Levels that matter this week Pivot 24 076 is the magnet. Above it the burden of proof is on sellers. Below it buyers need time to build. R1 24 230 is the first supply pocket. R2 24 502 lines up with prior supply. R3 24 656 sits just under the recent extremes. On the downside S1 23 805 is first support. S2 23 651 is where momentum sellers usually engage. S3 23 379 is the stress zone if the week turns heavy. Two simple scenarios Scenario A soft landing tone PMIs steady. Orders stabilise. Production improves. Payrolls strong enough but wages calm. The tape accepts price above the pivot and north of R1. Tactics. Buy pullbacks into 24 080 to 24 120 with a hard stop under 23 980. First take-profit at R1. Trail into the 24 330 pocket. If R2 breaks on confirmation keep a runner toward 24 650 to 24 770 where supply stacked recently. The idea is to let the market pay you for being patient near the magnet then step aside if the grid stops working. Scenario B growth scare tone PMIs revise down. Orders miss. Production disappoints. Payrolls hot on wages. Sellers defend R1 and the euro wobbles. Tactics. Sell failed bounces close to 24 230 with a stop above 24 330. First target the pivot. Add only on a clean loss of 23 980. Manage into S2 and be pragmatic near S3 because volatility tends to spike there. How to trade the grid Entry I anchor on 1H structure. I drill down to 15m for the trigger. I want acceptance around the level. That means a pause, a clean candle close, and a little confirmation from volume. Chasing the very first touch is optional and usually a worse price unless the day is a trend day. Risk Fixed R works. Use a small stop around the other side of the level. I like 0.5 R stops and 1.0 R first targets. On days with a data print I cut size in half or I skip the first twenty minutes. The easiest way to survive event weeks is to size for the noise and accept that some moves will run without you. Adds and exits Adds only after partials are banked. No martingale. I scale out at the next grid line or at VWAP if the run stalls. I do not marry a view. If the grid stops behaving I go flat and wait for the next high quality test. Why this works These weekly levels attract flow. Dealers manage hedges around them. When the tape is balanced the pivot acts like gravity. When the tape is imbalanced the break through R2 or S2 gives you a repeatable context to join the side that is pressing. You are not forecasting. You are responding with a simple structure. Rules to pin on the chart • Fade the first clean touch of R1 or S1 back to the pivot if no high impact release is due within the next hour. • Trade breakouts only on a firm thirty minute close above R2 or below S2 with volume support and a positive delta profile. • Stay flat into red events. Flat at least five minutes before the U.S. jobs report. Reassess after the first sweep. Instrument GER40 on the 1H chart. If you execute futures on Eurex or a CFD feed, tiny price differences do not change the grid. Rebuild the levels each weekend from the cash high low close so the numbers stay honest. Mindset The grid is a map. It tells you where to look. Your edge comes from taking the same trade the same way every time. Good process first. P and L follows. Education only.
XETR:DAX
by exlux