DAX Emerging MA50/MA100 Bullish Cross on the 4H.DAX appears to have completed the short-term profit taking pattern as presented last week on the following analysis:
The 1D MA200 held and the index can now resume the uptrend towards the top of the long-term Channel Up. On today's analysis I shift focus to the 4H time-frame where the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) are close to forming a Bullish Cross. Last time that happened was in October 20 and resulted in a massive rally to 16300.
All the price needs to do is clear the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which rejected the rebound today and break this short-term Bearish Megaphone. At the same time the 4H MACD just printed a Bullish Cross as well, while the Higher Lows trend-line from the November 30 market bottom is holding firmly. We are looking for a medium-term rise around the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (16300).
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Daxsignals
DAX short-term profit-taking leading to 16400Last week DAX gave the most optimal buy entry on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up as I presented on my most recent analysis:
The price hit 15840 on a strong rebound, the strongest 2 days of the year. Yesterday the price started to pull-back but shouldn't be alarming as the very same -1.30% correction took place on October 18, during the last rally wave and turned out to be just profit taking. The index traded sideways for a week and later went on a 1 month rally extension towards the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
That extension is currently a little over 16600 and if it takes place, it would mean the break to the upside of the August Channel Up. For the time being, it is more sensible to initially target 16400 and then re-evaluate.
Notice how the 1D MACD is currently forming a Bullish Cross, which DAX typically forms at the start of its rallies.
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DAX Buy Signal long-termPattern: Channel Up on the 1D time-frame
Signal: Buy as the price hit and held the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel, while hitting the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since November 2020. Also the CCI bounced off its multi-month Support Zone.
Target: 16500 (just below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension).
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DAX Trading PlanDAX rebounded today exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows) trend-line of its October Channel Up (blue) mainly due to the bettern than expected E.U. and German PMI data. If this effect is short-lived and the Channel breaks to the downside (quite likely as the MACD just formed a Bearish Cross on the 1D time-frame), look for the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the next buyer accumulation. That happens to be within the 0.5 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels. If however the Channel Up holds, the index should go for the next Higher High. In either case the next upside target is the 2.5 Fibonacci extension around 16500.
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DAX sideways on its ATH. Potential pull-back.Two weeks ago, the consolidation on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), gave a clear buy extension signal on DAX:
The 16000 Target has been hit and the index is consolidating around its 16030 former Resistance and ATH for 5 straight 1D candles. This is a sign of technical exhaustion of the dominant trend which is bullish, so if the Channel Up breaks its Higher Lows trend-line, I expect a full pull-back towards the 1D MA50. As long as it doesn't though, the bullish trend remains intact.
In either case, the target is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (roughly within 16450 - 16500), which is still below the Higher Highs trend-line that has been keeping DAX below since April 16.
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DAX Bullish continuation towards 16000.My last DAX analysis was on a bus signal after the price broke above the 4H MA50:
The short-term target of the 4H MA200 eventually got reached and now I shift my focus for the medium-term back to the 1D time-frame.
As you see the price has been trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a week. The very same consolidation pattern around the 1D MA50 was last seen from July 23rd to August 3rd. It led to the formation of the 16030 All Time High/ Resistance. I am expecting a similar rise/ target.
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DAX Broke above the 4H MA50. Buy Signal.Pattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price broke above the 4H MA50.
Target: 15500 (just below the 4H MA200).
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DAX hit the 1D MA200, first time since the US elections!DAX hit today the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 04 2020, which was the period of the U.S. elections. That was at the start of a very aggressive end-of-the-year rally.
Right now the index is rebounding after having made a Double Bottom just below the 15040 Support. If we also consider the July 19 Low, then this can be treated as a Triple Bottom. It is possible to see a similar pattern as May - June 2021, which also rebounded after a Double Bottom, that time on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line, which is the first Resistance) instead of the MA200. The RSIs of the two fractals are on Inverse Head and Shoulders.
The medium-term target is naturally the Resistance (16000), while on the long-term a price range within 16250 - 16400 as every previous Higher High since June has been near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension .
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DAX Buy SignalDAX is rebounding after approaching two key pressure levels: the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 15040 Support (1). Last time the price rebounded on the level, it topped at 16,030 (current Resistance) after consolidated within a mini Bull Flag around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The Flag signal is the MACD Bullish Cross so keep an eye.
The medium-term target is naturally the Resistance, while on the long-term a price range within 16250 - 16400 as every previous Higher High since June has been near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
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DAX Buy Signal within the Channel UpPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the CCI entered the Buy Zone and the price is near the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Up.
Target: 16200 (just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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DAX Which Channel will prevail?DAX is ahead of critical crossroads as the long-term Channel Up (blue) that was formed after the November 2020 U.S. elections is on its last leg (d) before the aggressive rally that last time (March-April) led to leg (e).
If this pattern is not repeated, then there is a new Channel Up (orange) that may continue this uptrend but in a more controlled, less aggressive manner. I believe that the signal for this will be a closing below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Which Channel Up do you think will prevail?
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DAX: All Eyes On Me! 👀👀👀The DAX is still indecisive whether to take the alternative route with a probability of 43% and push through the resistance at 15806 points or to take the long road around the mark at 15279 points. We primarily expect that the latter is the case and that the course will make a huge turnaround at the 15279 point mark. After that, the stage is set for a lasting bullish run.
Opportunities ahead!
DAX Fractal from 2017 hints to one last HighThis is a fractal comparison for DAX on the 1W time-frame. As shown on the chart, the Channel Up since the October 2020 low has many similarities with the Channel Up since the June 2016 low. They both started after a recovery of the price below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and continued posting Higher Highs for as long as the 1W MA50 was supporting. In 2017 the final peak came in October (one marginal break and rejection in Jan 2018) and then the index corrected back below the 1W MA50, even the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the Fib extensions, the 3.0 level should hold (even with a marginal break below) it and push the index for that last High on the 5.0 level at 16700. Even their RSI sequences seem fairly symmetrical.
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DAX Bullish fractalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as long as the 1D MA50 holds or if the Channel Up breaks upwards. The pattern resembles the Nov 2020 - March 2021 Channel.
Target: 16500 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
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DAX Ready for a strong reboundPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price is re-testing the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on a potential Double Bottom similar to late February.
Target: 16300 (just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level).
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Germany30 : Possible upside break out to 15800 levelSince the last two months, the Germany index was trading inside the Inner Range 15130-15330 together with the outer range 14800-15550 by making stop hunt higher highs and lows many times . Last days we saw some strong upside push towards the 15670 handle indicating a possible break out of the ascending triangle like formation eyeing for 15820 and 16000 psychological level resistance .
Major Trend : Up
Signal : Long Scalp every dip
Speculative Sentiment Index : 14%
Dax 30 : Likely to continue inside the monthly range 15130-15330Dax managed to stay inside the monthly range, unlike Us indices ,Dax avoided any heavy loss regardless of the situation in middle east as well as the higher inflation numbers from US. Price is likely to continue inside 15130-15330 rectangle with few more Higher highs and Higher Lows ,Speculative Sentiment Index is around 40% and fluctuating rapidly after every spike . Better is to scalp inside the range until we see a major real break out either side.
Trend : Rangebound
Signal : Long Scalp 15130 -14950
Target : 15300-15530
Stop Loss/Sell Stop : Below 14800
DAX Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price entered the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA300 (yellow trend-line) Buy Zone. This has initiated a rebound twice within the Channel Up. Also the RSI is on its 4 month Support Zone and the MACD close to it.
Target: 15500 (Resistance) and 16200 (Higher High) in extension.
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DAX High alertPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Sell as the MACD is flatlined and could repeat the September 2020 sequence.
Target: The 1D MA50.
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DAX Channel Up or Inverted Head and Shoulders?Pattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy but only if the price breaks above the middle of the Channel again. Otherwise the pattern may turn into an Inverted Head and Shoulders.
Target: 13600 (Higher High trend-line of the Channel Up).
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DAX Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy once the price approaches the 4H MA50, which has been supporting since November 19.
Target: 13500 (+1.75 projected rise from the 4H MA50 contact).
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DAX Buy SignalPattern: Lower Highs bullish break-out.
Signal: Buy as the RSI broke above its 3 month Lower Highs trend-line and the MACD is on a Bullish Cross much below the mean.
Target: 13850 (within the ATH and 1.236 Fib extension line).
Most recent DAX signal:
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DAX targeting 13000 if the 1D MA200 breaks (3 year pattern)This is an interesting 3 year pattern for DAX. Since 2018, every time the 1D MA200 breaks as a Resistance (index closes one 1D candle above it), DAX rallies to at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous Top.
Right now we are testing the 1D MA200 and the 0.786 is at 13000. Will history repeat?
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