Get started

Daytrading

ES Futures LONG Setup | 6462 → 6556 # 🚀 ES Futures LONG Setup | 6462 → 6556 🎯 (1:2 R\:R) ### 📝 Market Bias * **Conditional Bullish** into US open. * Higher-timeframe trend strong (price > 10/20/50/200 SMAs). * **BUT** intraday momentum still mixed (MACD bearish) + thin overnight liquidity. 👉 **Trade ONLY if liquidity & momentum confirm at open.** --- ### 🎯 Trade Idea **Setup:** Conditional LONG (market open only) * 📍 **Entry:** 6462.25 (acceptable range 6455 – 6475) * 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 6415.15 (0.75 × ATR = 47.10 pts) * 💰 **Take Profit:** 6556.45 (2 × stop = 94.20 pts) * ⚖️ **Risk/Reward:** 1 : 2 * 💪 **Confidence:** 60% **Risk/Reward per Contract:** * ❌ Risk = \$2,355 * ✅ Reward = \$4,710 --- ### 📊 Position Sizing * Formula: `contracts = floor((account_size × risk%) / (stop_pts × $50))` * Example: * \$100k acct @ 2% risk → 0 contracts (use micro/mini). * \$200k acct → 1 contract. * \$250k acct → 2 contracts. --- ### 📈 Scale & Exits * Take **50% profit @ 6509.35** (1× stop). * Hold rest to **6556.45 TP**. * Move stop to breakeven after scaling. --- ### ⚠️ Key Risks * Very thin overnight liquidity → slippage risk. * MACD still bearish; must improve at open. * Price near 20-day highs → upside limited. * Event/headline risk at open. --- ### ✅ Pre-Conditions (MUST at Open) * Strong liquidity/volume vs overnight. * Price holds above SMA10 & SMA20. * Preferable: MACD histogram improves in 15–30 mins. ❌ If conditions fail → NO TRADE. --- ### 📌 Trade JSON (For Algo/Notes) ```json { "instrument": "ES", "direction": "long", "entry_price": 6462.25, "stop_loss": 6415.15, "take_profit": 6556.45, "size": 1, "confidence": 0.60, "entry_timing": "market_open", "point_value": 50, "signal_publish_time": "2025-08-25 15:47:27" } ``` --- ### 🔖 Hashtags \#ES #SP500 #FuturesTrading #OptionsTrading #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TradeSetup #MarketOpen #RiskReward #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #StockMarket #TradingSignals #ScalpSetup
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by quantsignals
NZDCHF: Downtrend MomentumSimilar to NZDCAD, there's a very similar signal on NZDCHF. Daily Timeframe: Unlike with NZDCAD, price broke through support very cleanly. It is currently holding below with no indication of a fakeout. Likewise, EMA20 remains firmly below EMA60, which is the other indication that this is a downtrend. Hourly Timeframe: I use an ascending intraday trendline to indicate when the counter-trend movement is coming to an end. As price breaks below the intraday trendline, that's a good indication of confluence in the overall trend direction. The EMA crossover is not great, which is a little bit of a concern to me. Will need to reduce risk and potential scale into a position depending on how this trade goes.
Short
by FinancialGamblR
NZDCAD: Price Holding Below SupportNZDCAD has been in a messy daily range. The daily levels do not hold cleanly. However, I do think there's an opportunity here regardless. The first trendline break indicates weakness. The second trendline break is cleaner as price is able to hold below this level on the daily timeframe. Looking at the intraday timeframe, I plotted a trendline to look for confluence. Price crosses below this trendline and is somewhat supported by an exponential moving average crossover. There is an opportunity to scale into this trade provided that it starts trending cleanly.
Short
by FinancialGamblR
GOLD to $3,450? The Most Important Breakout of 2025 🔥 Gold has been one of the most talked-about assets in 2025, and now it’s testing the critical $3,370 resistance zone once again (price at $3,372 as of Aug 24). 📈 Bullish Case: If gold breaks and closes above $3,370, we could see momentum push toward $3,390–$3,395 in the short term. 📉 Bearish Case: If rejected here, support remains strong around $3,325–$3,330, aligned with the 100-day SMA. 👉 Do you think gold will finally break higher this week, or get rejected again? Drop your thoughts in the comments Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Shared for educational purposes only.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Arsofa
2
Bitcoin Fade 118k, buy 114–111k dips__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is consolidating below the yearly range high: higher-timeframe remains constructive while short-term momentum has turned lower. Sellers are active into 116.5–118k, with 111–114k catching dips. Momentum: Bearish 📉 intraday with a supportive 1D/1W backdrop; “sell the rips” under 116.5–118k. Key levels: • Resistances (4H–1D): 116.5–118k (major pivot), 120–121k (intermediate supply), 124k (ATH area). • Supports (2H–1D): 114–114.5k (range median), 111–111.7k (W Pivot High), 105–98k if 111k breaks. Volumes: Normal to moderate; on 2H–4H, spikes mainly on sell pushes below 115k. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/1W = Up, 6H→15m = Down; 111–114k holds structure, 118k caps rebounds. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: VENTE — contradicts bullish breakouts and favors selective range trading. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Game plan: trade the range defensively below 118k and be ready to flip long on a confirmed 4H/12H close above it. Global bias: Neutral-bullish as long as 111k holds, tactically short below 118k; higher-timeframe invalidation if daily/12H closes below 111k. Opportunities: • Reactive long 114–111.5k on wick/volume confirmation, target 116k then 118k. • Breakout buy on 4H/12H close > 118k, aiming 120k then 124k. • Tactical fade short 116–118k on clean rejections; target 114k then 112k. Risk zones / invalidations: • A 12H close < 111k opens 105k then 98k (HTF bullish invalidation). • A 4H/12H close > 118k invalidates shorts and flips the bias long. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Powell signaled cuts “may be warranted” and the FAIT regime is being dropped → risk-on tailwind. • Spot ETF flows turned positive again (ARKB, BITB), aligning with risk appetite → tactical support. • Stablecoin inflows: >$500M USDC to Coinbase → potential spot fuel if 118k breaks. Action plan: • Range-long: Entry 114.5k→113k (ladder) / Stop daily < 111k / TP1 116k, TP2 118k, TP3 120k / R:R ≈ 2.0–2.5. • Breakout-long: Entry on 4H/12H close > 118k / Stop ~116.5k / TP1 120k, TP2 124k, TP3 runner / R:R ≈ 1.8–2.2. • Range-short: Entry 116–118k (rejection) / Stop 4H close > 118k / TP1 114k, TP2 112k, TP3 111k / R:R ≈ 1.5–2.0. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTF structure remains constructive while LTFs lean bearish under the 116.5–118k cap. 1W/1D: Bullish structure above 111k; a confirmed 4H/12H close above 118k unlocks 120k/124k. 12H/6H/4H/2H: Lower highs persisting; rebounds get faded under 116.5–118k, with 114k then 112k as magnets. 1H/30m/15m: Short-term down channel, micro-range 114.8–116.2k; prefer shorts under 116k, reactive longs only on clean 114k signals. Divergences/confluences: Strong confluence at 118k (multi-TF resistance) and 111k (HTF pivot). This pair drives breakout vs. reversion scenarios. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro tilts mildly risk-on, but follow-through depends on holding closes above 118k and geopolitical calm. Macro events: • Post–Jackson Hole, Powell noted cuts may be warranted; US indices printed records, yields fell, USD slipped → risk-on support. • Fed is dropping the implicit FAIT while keeping 2% long-term target → clearer policy path, lower regime uncertainty. • Truflation near ~2.1% with slowing growth signs → higher cut odds, liquidity tailwind for risk assets. Bitcoin analysis: • BTC volatility: dip ~112k then bounce 115–117k; 118k remains the decision level. • Spot ETFs: outflows flipped to inflows (ARKB, BITB) → increases odds of a clean breakout. • Stablecoins: >$500M USDC to Coinbase = potential spot bid if 118k breaks; watch for deployment. On-chain data: • Elevated OI but recently cleaned up → leverage healthier yet sensitive. • Slower net capital inflows late-cycle; ETH-derivatives dominance → potential volatility spillover to BTC. Expected impact: Macro/on-chain slightly favor the top of the range; technically, bias flips only on a confirmed close > 118k, else range persists. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC holds a mature range between 111k and 118k with HTF tailwind but LTF headwinds. - Trend: bullish on 1D/1W, bearish on LTF; 118k is the trigger for 120k/124k continuation. - Best setup: buy 114–111.5k on clean reaction or follow the confirmed breakout > 118k; alternatively, fade 116–118k rejections. - Macro: Powell’s easing tilt + ETF/stablecoin flows support upside if 118k gives way. Stay nimble: trade the range until the break, and protect risk around key closes and macro headlines. ⚠️
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
ES Futures — Plan for Fri, Aug 22 Intraday trend on 15m/30m remains down. The 6,396–6,407 band is the pivot/decision zone. Tomorrow’s session is dominated by Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote (10:00 ET) — plan around it. Fundamentals & Risk Clock (ET) • 10:00 — Fed Chair Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Treat this as the day’s primary catalyst; no new entries 09:55–10:05 per risk rules.   • Otherwise, the U.S. calendar is relatively light vs. today’s prints; markets will key off the Powell tone and subsequent positioning.   Structure Map (carry-forward levels) Resistance / sell zones • 6,396–6,407 (pivot/decision band) – acceptance above flips bias; failure sends us back inside the range. • 6,412 → 6,418 – first upside magnets if the pivot breaks. • 6,433–6,436 – underside of prior distribution (primary cap). • 6,445–6,447 – secondary cap. • 6,469–6,471 & 6,476 – upper supply/“failure” lines. Support / buy zones • 6,392–6,388 – LVN pocket; moves often accelerate through here. • 6,386–6,382 – upper demand shelf. • 6,375–6,370 – NY low cluster/first demand band. • 6,366 → 6,357–6,352 – deeper HTF shelf if weakness extends. Preferred Setup (A++): Range-Continuation Short Take only with confirmation; score ≥9. • Trigger: First 5-minute close ≤ 6,390.5 after a failed probe of 6,396–6,407, and the next bar fails to reclaim 6,392–6,394. • Entry: 6,390.5 (MOS). • Stop: 6,396.5 (≈6 pts). • Targets: • TP1: 6,375.5 (+15) • TP2: 6,366.0 (+24) • TP3: 6,358.0 (+32) • Management: Scale ½ at TP1; move stop → BE only after a fresh 5m lower-low or a clean close through the TP1 zone. If no extension within 2×5m bars, cut to half/scratch. • Disqualifiers: Thick support immediately stacks under entry or a 15m acceptance back above 6,396–6,407. Flip Setup (A++ if accepted): Acceptance Long above Pivot Counter-trend unless 15m turns; size accordingly. • Trigger: First 5-minute close ≥ 6,407.5 and the next bar does not reclaim < 6,405. • Entry: 6,407.5 (MOS). • Stop: 6,401.5 (≈6 pts). • Targets: • TP1: 6,418.0 (+10.5 from trigger; acceptable given clean path) • TP2: 6,435.0 (+27.5) • TP3: trail toward 6,446+ if momentum persists. • Disqualifier: Quick slip back < 6,405 after trigger. Timing & Playbook • Primary trade windows: 09:45–11:30 ET and 13:50–15:45 ET. • Powell (10:00 ET): Plan around the speech; entries before the print must have exceptional quality, otherwise wait for post-event structure. • MOC module (15:40–16:10 ET): Use the imbalance as a tiebreaker: modest (<$0.5B) = range; strong (≥$1B) can drive a directional push into the cross.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MyAlgoIndex
Gold 20 Aug – Bearish Bias, Watching 3332.5–3338 Supply ZoneGold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 20 August Market Structure H4 Trend: Bearish M15 Trend: Bearish (currently in pullback phase within the broader downtrend) Key Levels & Zones 📍 Supply Zone (3332.5 – 3338) This is today’s main zone of interest. If price respects this area, it may offer a clean continuation setup in line with the higher-timeframe trend. Execution Plan 🔻 Sell Scenario • Wait for price to approach 3332.5 – 3338 • Watch lower-timeframe (LTF) reaction inside the zone • If rejection confirms, plan shorts aligned with the dominant trend ❌ Invalidation • A sustained break above 3338 weakens the bearish setup and requires reassessment Bias for Today Bearish — focusing on short opportunities from 3332.5 – 3338 supply zone if validated by price action. 📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartIsMirror
DAY $70C to the Moon? Options Setup Inside # 🚀 DAY Weekly Options Setup | \$70C to the Moon? 🌙🔥 💡 **Ticker**: \ NYSE:DAY (Dayforce Inc.) 📅 **Setup Date**: Aug 19, 2025 🎯 **Play**: Weekly CALL Option --- ## 📊 Trade Setup * 🔥 **Strike**: \$70.00 * ⏰ **Expiry**: Sep 19, 2025 * 💵 **Entry**: \$1.35 (midpoint target) * 🛑 **Stop Loss**: \$0.54 (-40%) * 🎯 **PT1**: \$2.00 (+50%) * 🎯 **PT2**: \$2.70 (+100%) * 📈 **Confidence**: 75% --- ## 🔎 Why Bullish? ✅ Rising Daily & Weekly RSI ✅ 1.4x Volume Surge = Institutional Buying ✅ Low Volatility = Cleaner Trend ✅ All models aligned: **Strong Bullish Momentum** --- ## ⚠️ Risks * RSI overbought zone → short-term pullback risk * Weekly options = higher volatility ⚡
NYSE:DAYLong
by quantsignals
# BTCUSD COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS# BTCUSD COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS **Asset**: Bitcoin / US Dollar (BTCUSD) **Reference Price**: $117,498.30 (August 16th, 2025) **Analysis Date**: August 17, 2025 **Market Cap**: ~$2.3 Trillion (estimated) ## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Bitcoin is experiencing a critical technical juncture following a sharp reversal from recent all-time highs above $124,500. The current price action suggests a complex corrective phase within a larger bullish structure. Multiple analytical methodologies indicate potential for both short-term volatility and longer-term continuation of the secular bull market. --- ## 1. ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ### Super Cycle Perspective (Monthly/Yearly) **Major Degree Classification**: - **Super Cycle**: Wave (III) in progress since 2020 lows - **Cycle Degree**: Wave III of (III) - the heart of the bull market - **Primary Degree**: Wave (5) of III nearing completion - **Current Position**: Complex corrective phase after new highs ### Primary Wave Structure (Weekly/Daily) **Wave Count Analysis**: - **Wave (1)**: Completed at $73,800 (March 2024) - **Wave (2)**: Corrective decline to $49,000 (August 2024) - **Wave (3)**: Extended impulse to $124,597 (August 2025) - **Wave (4)**: Current corrective phase in progress - **Wave (5)**: Projected final push higher ### Current Corrective Structure (Daily/4H) **Wave (4) Analysis**: - **Pattern Type**: Complex corrective structure (Double Zigzag W-X-Y) - **W Wave**: Sharp decline from $124,597 to $113,500 - **X Wave**: Corrective bounce to $119,800 (completed) - **Y Wave**: Currently unfolding, targeting $110,000-$114,000 **Internal Structure**: - **Subwave a**: Completed at $113,500 - **Subwave b**: Bounce to $119,800 (current level vicinity) - **Subwave c**: Expected decline to complete Wave (4) ### Elliott Wave Projections **Wave (4) Completion Targets**: - **Shallow Correction**: $114,000-$116,000 (38.2% retracement) - **Moderate Correction**: $110,000-$113,000 (50% retracement) - **Deep Correction**: $105,000-$108,000 (61.8% retracement) **Wave (5) Targets** (after correction completion): - **Minimum Target**: $135,000-$140,000 (equality with Wave 1) - **Extended Target**: $155,000-$165,000 (1.618 extension) - **Extreme Target**: $200,000-$220,000 (2.618 extension) ### Time Analysis **Wave (4) Duration Expectations**: - **Typical Duration**: 21-34 days (based on Wave (2) relationship) - **Current Progress**: Day 7 of correction (started August 12) - **Completion Window**: August 25 - September 5, 2025 **Wave (5) Timeline**: - **Duration**: 45-89 days (Fibonacci relationship) - **Completion**: December 2025 - February 2026 ### Invalidation Levels - **Critical Support**: $95,000 (breaks Wave (1) high) - **Alternate Count**: Below $95,000 suggests larger degree correction --- ## 2. HARMONIC PATTERN ANALYSIS ### Active Harmonic Formations **Bearish Deep Crab Pattern (Daily)** - **X to A**: Reference leg from $49,000 to $124,597 - **A to B**: 0.618 retracement targeting $119,200 - **B to C**: 0.886 retracement to $121,800 - **C to D (PRZ)**: 2.24-3.618 extension targeting $110,000-$114,000 - **Current Status**: C to D leg in progress - **Pattern Completion**: Expected within 1-2 weeks **Target Projections** (after pattern completion): - **T1**: $120,000 (38.2% CD retracement) - **T2**: $125,000 (61.8% CD retracement) - **T3**: $130,000 (78.6% CD retracement) **Bullish Bat Pattern (4-Hour)** - **X to A**: Swing high to swing low establishment - **A to B**: 0.382-0.500 retracement at $118,500 - **B to C**: 0.382-0.886 retracement at $115,200 - **C to D**: 0.886 XA retracement targeting $112,500-$114,000 - **Completion Status**: Near PRZ zone **ABCD Pattern (1-Hour)** - **AB = CD Structure**: Equal wave decline pattern - **A to B**: Initial decline $124,597 to $119,500 - **B to C**: Corrective bounce to $122,100 - **C to D**: 127.2-161.8% extension to $113,500-$115,000 - **Current Status**: Near completion of D point ### Gartley Pattern (Weekly) **Long-term Bullish Gartley**: - **X Point**: $15,500 (2020 low) - **A Point**: $69,000 (2021 high) - **B Point**: $15,500 (2022 low) - 0.786 retracement - **C Point**: $124,597 (current high area) - **D Point Projection**: $85,000-$95,000 (if pattern completes) **Note**: This larger pattern suggests potential for deeper correction if activated ### M & W Patterns **M-Top Formation (Daily)**: - **Left Peak**: $124,597 (August 12, 2025) - **Valley**: $113,500 (August 14, 2025) - **Right Peak**: Potential retest of highs - **Neckline**: $113,500 support area - **Break Target**: $102,000-$105,000 **W-Bottom Potential (4-Hour)**: - **First Low**: $113,500 (established) - **Second Low**: $114,000-$116,000 (current formation area) - **Neckline**: $119,800-$121,000 - **Breakout Target**: $125,000-$128,000 --- ## 3. WYCKOFF METHOD ANALYSIS ### Current Market Phase Assessment **Distribution vs Accumulation**: - **Recent Action**: Distribution characteristics after new highs - **Volume Pattern**: High volume on decline (supply) - **Price Action**: Sharp reversal from resistance - **Professional Activity**: Profit-taking by smart money ### Wyckoff Schematic (Daily) **Distribution Phase Analysis**: - **Preliminary Supply (PS)**: Weakness at $124,597 highs - **Buying Climax (BC)**: Failed attempt to sustain new highs - **Automatic Reaction (AR)**: Sharp decline to $113,500 - **Secondary Test (ST)**: Current bounce to $117,500-$119,800 - **Sign of Weakness (SOW)**: Expected if fails to reclaim $121,000 **Alternative Accumulation Scenario**: - **Spring Action**: Test below $113,500 with quick recovery - **Last Point of Support (LPS)**: $114,000-$116,000 area - **Sign of Strength (SOS)**: Break above $122,000 with volume ### Wyckoff Point & Figure Count **Horizontal Count**: From $113,500 to $124,597 range - **Count**: 11,097 points - **Projection Up**: $135,694 (124,597 + 11,097) - **Projection Down**: $102,403 (113,500 - 11,097) ### Volume Analysis (Wyckoff Context) **Recent Volume Characteristics**: - **High Volume Decline**: Professional distribution - **Low Volume Bounce**: Lack of demand (bearish) - **Volume Divergence**: Lower volume on recent highs - **Institutional Flow**: Net selling pressure evident ### Wyckoff Trading Strategy **Distribution Scenario** (60% probability): - **Short Setup**: Below $116,000 with volume - **Target**: $105,000-$110,000 (cause/effect) - **Stop**: Above $121,000 **Accumulation Scenario** (40% probability): - **Long Setup**: Above $122,000 with expanding volume - **Target**: $135,000-$140,000 - **Stop**: Below $113,000 --- ## 4. W.D. GANN THEORY ANALYSIS ### Square of 9 Analysis **Current Position**: $117,498 (Square root ≈ 342.8) **Natural Resistance Levels**: - **345°**: $119,025 (immediate resistance) - **360°/0°**: $129,600 (major resistance) - **15°**: $131,769 (significant resistance) - **30°**: $135,000 (major Gann resistance) - **45°**: $139,365 (strong resistance) **Natural Support Levels**: - **330°**: $108,900 (significant support) - **315°**: $99,225 (major support) - **300°**: $90,000 (critical support) - **270°**: $72,900 (extreme support) ### Gann Angles Analysis **Primary Angle Lines** (from $15,500 2020 low): - **1x1 Angle** (45°): $85,000 (major rising support) - **2x1 Angle** (63.75°): $105,000 (steep support) - **1x2 Angle** (26.25°): $65,000 (gentle support) - **1x4 Angle** (14.04°): $45,000 (long-term support) **Secondary Angles** (from $69,000 2021 high): - **1x1 Declining**: $95,000 (resistance turned support) - **2x1 Declining**: $110,000 (current support area) ### Gann Time Theory **Active Cycles** (August-December 2025): - **30-Day Cycle**: Major turn August 25-30, 2025 - **60-Day Cycle**: Significant reversal October 1-5, 2025 - **90-Day Cycle**: Important turn November 15-20, 2025 - **180-Day Cycle**: Major cycle peak February 2026 **Historical Analysis**: - **Previous 90-day high**: May 15, 2025 - **Next projected turn**: November 15, 2025 - **Annual cycle**: December typically strong for Bitcoin ### Square of Price and Time **Price-Time Equality** (from $49,000 low): - **123 days elapsed**: 123 × $500 = $61,500 move = $110,500 target - **180 days projection**: 180 × $500 = $90,000 move = $139,000 target ### Gann Master Charts **Price Forecasting** (September-December 2025): - **Conservative**: $125,000-$130,000 (based on 1x1 angles) - **Moderate**: $135,000-$145,000 (Square of 9 resistance) - **Aggressive**: $155,000-$165,000 (major Gann projections) **Time Forecasting**: - **Immediate Turn**: August 28-30 (30-day cycle) - **Intermediate High**: October 15-20 (60-day cycle) - **Major Peak**: December 15-25 (annual pattern) ### Ranges in Harmony **Current Range**: $49,000 to $124,597 ($75,597 range) - **1/8 Range**: $58,449 (major support) - **2/8 Range**: $68,199 (significant support) - **3/8 Range**: $77,948 (moderate support) - **4/8 Range**: $86,798 (midpoint - critical) - **5/8 Range**: $96,648 (resistance turned support) - **6/8 Range**: $106,498 (key current support) - **7/8 Range**: $116,347 (current price area) --- ## 5. ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO ANALYSIS ### Ichimoku Components (Daily Chart) **Tenkan-sen** (9-period): $118,450 - **Current Relation**: Price slightly below Tenkan - **Trend**: Flattening after sharp rise - **Signal**: Dynamic resistance on bounces **Kijun-sen** (26-period): $115,200 - **Current Relation**: Price above Kijun (bullish bias) - **Trend**: Rising but decelerating - **Key Level**: Critical support for trend continuation **Senkou Span A** (Leading Span A): $120,500 **Senkou Span B** (Leading Span B): $108,900 - **Cloud Status**: Bullish cloud (Span A > Span B) - **Cloud Thickness**: Strong support (11,600 points) - **Price vs Cloud**: Above cloud (bullish long-term) **Chikou Span** (Lagging Span): $117,498 - **26 periods ago**: $89,500 - **Momentum**: Strongly positive - **Trend Confirmation**: Supports bullish bias ### Ichimoku Signal Analysis **TK Cross** (Tenkan-Kijun Crossover): - **Current Status**: Tenkan above Kijun (bullish) - **Signal Strength**: Weakening (gap narrowing) - **Risk**: Bearish cross if Tenkan falls below Kijun **Kumo Breakout**: - **Current Position**: Price above cloud (bullish) - **Support Zone**: $108,900-$120,500 (cloud area) - **Risk Level**: Break below $108,900 (cloud bottom) **Chikou Span Analysis**: - **Clear Space**: Path relatively clear - **Resistance**: Minor resistance at $125,000 area - **Support**: Strong momentum reading ### Multi-Timeframe Ichimoku **4-Hour Ichimoku**: - **Tenkan-sen**: $117,800 - **Kijun-sen**: $116,200 - **Cloud**: Bearish (red cloud) - **Price**: Below cloud (bearish short-term) **1-Hour Ichimoku**: - **Trend**: Neutral to bearish - **Cloud**: Thin bearish cloud - **Signal**: Waiting for direction ### Ichimoku Strategy **Bullish Scenario**: - **Entry**: Above $120,500 (cloud top) - **Target**: $125,000-$130,000 - **Stop**: $115,000 (below Kijun-sen) **Bearish Scenario**: - **Entry**: Below $115,000 (Kijun-sen break) - **Target**: $108,900 (cloud bottom) - **Stop**: $120,500 (above cloud) --- ## 6. JAPANESE CANDLESTICK ANALYSIS ### Recent Major Patterns (Daily Chart) **Bearish Engulfing Pattern** (August 12-13, 2025): - **Formation**: Large red candle engulfing previous green - **Location**: At all-time high resistance ($124,597) - **Volume**: Extremely high (distribution) - **Implication**: Strong reversal signal - **Target**: $110,000-$115,000 **Evening Star Formation** (August 11-13, 2025): - **First Candle**: Strong bullish to new highs - **Second Candle**: Small-bodied doji/spinning top - **Third Candle**: Strong bearish engulfing - **Confirmation**: Complete reversal pattern - **Reliability**: Very high (at major resistance) ### Multi-Timeframe Candlestick Analysis **Weekly Chart**: - **Pattern**: Shooting star formation - **Upper Shadow**: Long rejection of highs - **Body**: Small relative to shadow - **Volume**: Above average - **Implication**: Weekly reversal signal **4-Hour Chart**: - **Recent Pattern**: Three black crows - **Formation**: Three consecutive red candles - **Each Closing**: Lower than previous - **Volume**: Increasing on each decline - **Target**: Continuation lower **1-Hour Chart**: - **Current Pattern**: Hammer formation potential - **Location**: Near $117,000 support - **Lower Shadow**: Testing support with rejection - **Confirmation**: Needed with bullish follow-through ### Advanced Candlestick Combinations **Dark Cloud Cover**: - **Formation**: Bearish reversal at highs - **Penetration**: Over 50% of previous candle - **Volume**: Higher than average - **Target**: $112,000-$115,000 **Three Outside Down**: - **Day 1**: Small bullish candle - **Day 2**: Bearish engulfing - **Day 3**: Continuation lower - **Status**: Pattern complete - **Implication**: Strong bearish signal ### Candlestick-Based Targets **Pattern Projections**: - **Evening Star**: $108,000-$113,000 - **Bearish Engulfing**: $110,000-$116,000 - **Shooting Star**: $105,000-$112,000 - **Three Black Crows**: $112,000-$118,000 --- ## 7. RSI ANALYSIS (Multi-Timeframe) ### Daily RSI Analysis **Current Reading**: 52.8 - **Condition**: Neutral territory - **Trend**: Declining from overbought levels (85+) - **Divergence**: Potential bearish divergence forming - **Support**: 50 level critical for bullish bias - **Resistance**: 60 level for bullish confirmation **RSI Pattern Analysis**: - **Peak**: 87.2 at recent highs (extreme overbought) - **Current Decline**: Healthy cooling off - **Target**: 40-45 zone (oversold bounce area) - **Trend**: Still in bullish structure above 50 ### 4-Hour RSI Analysis **Current Reading**: 45.2 - **Condition**: Approaching oversold - **Momentum**: Declining momentum slowing - **Pattern**: Potential double bottom forming - **Support**: 40 level key bounce zone ### 1-Hour RSI Analysis **Current Reading**: 48.7 - **Condition**: Neutral with downward bias - **Trend**: Sideways consolidation - **Levels**: 45 support, 55 resistance - **Signal**: Waiting for direction ### Weekly RSI Analysis **Current Reading**: 68.5 - **Condition**: Strong but cooling from overbought - **Trend**: Still in strong bullish territory - **Historical**: Room for further upside long-term - **Support**: 60 level major support ### RSI Divergence Analysis **Bearish Divergences**: - **Daily**: Higher price, lower RSI peaks - **4-Hour**: Confirmed bearish divergence - **Implication**: Correction expected **Target RSI Levels**: - **Oversold Bounce**: RSI 35-40 (price $105,000-$110,000) - **Neutral Reset**: RSI 45-55 (price $112,000-$118,000) - **Bullish Resumption**: RSI >60 (price >$125,000) --- ## 8. BOLLINGER BANDS ANALYSIS ### Daily Bollinger Bands **Current Configuration**: - **Upper Band**: $127,500 (2 std dev) - **Middle Band (SMA20)**: $115,800 - **Lower Band**: $104,100 (2 std dev) - **Band Width**: Extremely wide (high volatility) **Price Action**: - **Current Position**: Between middle and upper band - **Recent**: Rejected from upper band (resistance) - **Trend**: Moving toward middle band - **Target**: Lower band test possible ($104,100) ### Bollinger Band Signals **Band Rejection**: - **Upper Band Touch**: Strong resistance at $127,500 - **Volume**: High volume rejection (bearish) - **Pattern**: Classic sell signal from upper band - **Target**: Middle band ($115,800) then lower band **Squeeze Analysis**: - **Current Status**: Bands expanding (high volatility) - **Previous**: Squeeze before breakout to highs - **Next Phase**: Continued expansion expected - **Direction**: Bias toward lower band ### 4-Hour Bollinger Bands **Configuration**: - **Upper Band**: $122,500 - **Middle Band**: $117,200 - **Lower Band**: $111,900 - **Position**: Near middle band (neutral) ### 1-Hour Bollinger Bands **Configuration**: - **Upper Band**: $119,500 - **Middle Band**: $117,000 - **Lower Band**: $114,500 - **Trend**: Consolidating within bands ### Bollinger Strategy **Sell Setup**: - **Trigger**: Break below middle band ($115,800) - **Target**: Lower band ($104,100) - **Stop**: Above upper band ($127,500) **Buy Setup**: - **Trigger**: Bounce from lower band with RSI oversold - **Target**: Return to middle then upper band - **Stop**: Sustained break below lower band --- ## 9. VWAP ANALYSIS ### Daily VWAP **Current VWAP**: $118,650 - **Price vs VWAP**: Below VWAP (bearish) - **Distance**: $1,152 below (significant) - **Trend**: VWAP declining (distribution) - **Reclaim Level**: Above $118,650 bullish ### VWAP Deviation Bands **Standard Deviations**: - **+3σ**: $135,200 (extreme resistance) - **+2σ**: $128,900 (strong resistance) - **+1σ**: $123,800 (moderate resistance) - **VWAP**: $118,650 (pivot) - **-1σ**: $113,500 (moderate support) - **-2σ**: $108,350 (strong support) - **-3σ**: $103,200 (extreme support) **Current Position**: Between VWAP and -1σ (slight bearish bias) ### Weekly VWAP **Level**: $92,500 - **Price vs VWAP**: Significantly above (bullish long-term) - **Trend**: Rising strongly - **Support**: Major support level ### Monthly VWAP **Level**: $78,200 - **Distance**: $39,298 above (extremely bullish) - **Trend**: Steep upward trajectory - **Significance**: Long-term bull market confirmation ### VWAP Trading Strategy **Mean Reversion**: - **Current**: Price below daily VWAP - **Entry**: Near -1σ ($113,500) with RSI oversold - **Target**: Return to VWAP ($118,650) - **Extended**: +1σ ($123,800) **Breakout Strategy**: - **Bullish**: Sustained reclaim of VWAP - **Target**: Upper deviation bands - **Bearish**: Break below -1σ with volume - **Target**: -2σ ($108,350) --- ## 10. MOVING AVERAGES ANALYSIS ### Simple Moving Averages (Daily) **Current Alignment**: - **20 SMA**: $115,800 (declining) - **50 SMA**: $108,500 (rising) - **100 SMA**: $95,200 (rising strongly) - **200 SMA**: $78,500 (rising strongly) **Market Structure**: - **Short-term**: Bearish (20 SMA declining) - **Medium-term**: Bullish (50/100 SMA rising) - **Long-term**: Strongly bullish (200 SMA steep rise) ### Exponential Moving Averages (Daily) **EMA Configuration**: - **12 EMA**: $116,800 (immediate resistance) - **26 EMA**: $113,200 (key support) - **50 EMA**: $107,500 (major support) - **100 EMA**: $92,800 (long-term support) ### Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) **Daily MACD**: - **MACD Line**: 2,450 (declining from peaks) - **Signal Line**: 3,120 (bearish crossover) - **Histogram**: -670 (negative momentum) - **Trend**: Bearish momentum building ### MA Support/Resistance Levels **Resistance Cluster**: $115,800-$116,800 - **20 SMA & 12 EMA**: Major resistance zone - **Significance**: Key level for trend continuation **Support Cluster**: $107,500-$108,500 - **50 SMA & 50 EMA**: Important support - **Break Below**: Would signal deeper correction ### Golden/Death Cross Analysis **Current Status**: - **50/200 SMA**: Golden Cross active (bullish) - **20/50 SMA**: Death Cross developing (bearish short-term) **Implications**: - **Long-term**: Bull market intact - **Short-term**: Corrective phase expected --- ## 11. MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS ### 5-Minute Chart Analysis **Trend**: Choppy, range-bound **Range**: $116,500-$118,500 **Support**: $116,800 (recent lows) **Resistance**: $118,200 (intraday highs) **Volume**: Below average (consolidation) **Pattern**: Symmetrical triangle **Breakout**: Awaiting direction (slight bearish bias) **Target Up**: $119,500 **Target Down**: $115,500 ### 15-Minute Chart Analysis **Trend**: Sideways to slightly bearish **Pattern**: Descending triangle **Support**: $117,000 (horizontal) **Resistance**: $118,500-$119,000 (declining) **Volume**: Decreasing (coiling for move) **RSI**: Neutral (45-55 range) **MACD**: Slight bearish bias **Breakout Expected**: Within 6-12 hours **Target**: $115,000 (if breaks down) ### 30-Minute Chart Analysis **Trend**: Corrective within larger uptrend **Structure**: ABC correction pattern **A Wave**: $124,597 to $113,500 **B Wave**: $113,500 to $119,800 (complete) **C Wave**: In progress, targeting $110,000-$114,000 **Time**: 2-4 hours for completion **Volume**: Declining on bounces (bearish) **Next Phase**: Reversal expected after C completion ### 1-Hour Chart Analysis **Trend**: Bearish correction **Elliott Wave**: Wave 4 of larger degree **Pattern**: Complex corrective (WXY) **Support**: $114,000-$116,000 (major) **Resistance**: $120,000-$122,000 (key level) **Ichimoku**: Below cloud (bearish) **RSI**: Approaching oversold (40-45) **Target**: $112,000-$115,000 (correction completion) **Timeline**: 1-3 days ### 4-Hour Chart Analysis **Primary Trend**: Bullish correction within uptrend **Wave Structure**: Intermediate Wave (4) **Pattern**: Double zigzag (W-X-Y) **Current Phase**: Y wave of correction **Support Zone**: $110,000-$115,000 (critical) **Resistance Zone**: $122,000-$125,000 (major) **Volume Profile**: Selling pressure evident **Harmonic Patterns**: Multiple bearish patterns active **Completion**: Expected within 3-7 days ### Intraday Summary (5M-1H) **Overall Bias**: Bearish for next 12-24 hours **Key Level**: $117,000 support break would accelerate down **Target**: $114,000-$115,500 (initial) **Resistance**: $119,000-$120,000 (strong) **Strategy**: Fade bounces, buy oversold at support --- ## 12. SWING TRADING ANALYSIS (4H-Monthly) ### 4-Hour Swing Perspective **Trend**: Corrective phase in larger uptrend **Current Phase**: Wave (4) correction **Structure**: Complex double zigzag **Support**: $110,000-$115,000 (major confluence) **Resistance**: $122,000-$125,000 (key breakout level) **Pattern**: Large bull flag or pennant **Volume**: Distribution characteristics **Timeline**: 1-2 weeks for completion **Target**: $135,000-$145,000 (after correction) ### Daily Swing Analysis **Major Trend**: Secular bull market continuation **Current Wave**: Primary degree Wave (4) **Correction Type**: Time and price correction **Expected Depth**: 15-25% ($105,000-$115,000) **Duration**: 3-6 weeks total **Support Confluence**: $108,000-$115,000 **Resistance**: $125,000-$130,000 (reclaim needed) **Next Phase**: Final Wave (5) to new highs **Ultimate Target**: $150,000-$200,000 (2026) ### Weekly Swing Analysis **Super Trend**: Multi-year bull market **Current Cycle**: Wave III of larger degree **Phase**: Late-stage correction before final push **Major Support**: $85,000-$105,000 (weekly demand) **Major Resistance**: $130,000-$140,000 (weekly supply) **Seasonal Factor**: Q4 historically strong for Bitcoin **Institutional Flow**: Continued adoption trend **Long-term View**: $200,000+ by 2026-2027 ### Monthly Swing Analysis **Decade Trend**: Exponential adoption curve **Current Position**: Mid-cycle bull run **Cycle Stage**: Institutional adoption phase **Monthly Support**: $75,000-$90,000 (major crash protection) **Monthly Resistance**: $150,000-$200,000 (cycle targets) **Fundamental Backdrop**: Growing ETF adoption, corporate treasury **Regulatory Environment**: Increasingly favorable **Ultimate Targets**: $500,000-$1,000,000 (2030s) ### Swing Trading Strategy **Accumulation Approach**: - **Entry Range**: $105,000-$120,000 (scale in) - **Core Position**: 70% in range - **Breakout Addition**: 30% above $130,000 - **Stop Loss**: $95,000 (major trend invalidation) - **Target Sequence**: $135,000 → $155,000 → $180,000 - **Timeline**: 6-18 months **Risk Management**: - **Position Size**: 5-15% of portfolio (based on risk tolerance) - **Diversification**: Consider Bitcoin miners, crypto ETFs - **Hedge Options**: Put options for downside protection --- ## 13. KEY LEVELS & PRICE TARGETS ### Critical Support Levels (Priority Order) 1. **$116,000-$117,500** - Immediate support (current area) 2. **$114,000-$115,500** - Minor support (harmonic targets) 3. **$110,000-$113,000** - Moderate support (Elliott Wave targets, VWAP -1σ) 4. **$105,000-$108,000** - Major support (Elliott Wave 61.8%, Bollinger lower band) 5. **$95,000-$100,000** - Critical support (previous Wave 1 high, psychological) 6. **$85,000-$90,000** - Ultimate support (Gann angles, monthly demand) ### Critical Resistance Levels (Priority Order) 1. **$119,000-$120,000** - Immediate resistance (VWAP, previous support) 2. **$122,000-$125,000** - Minor resistance (harmonic retracements, MA cluster) 3. **$127,000-$130,000** - Moderate resistance (Bollinger upper, psychological) 4. **$135,000-$140,000** - Major resistance (Elliott Wave 5 targets) 5. **$150,000-$155,000** - Strong resistance (extended Elliott targets) 6. **$180,000-$200,000** - Ultimate resistance (super cycle projections) ### Short-term Targets (Next 1-4 weeks) **Bearish Scenario** (65% probability): - **Initial**: $114,000-$116,000 (correction continuation) - **Extended**: $108,000-$112,000 (deeper correction) - **Extreme**: $105,000-$108,000 (maximum correction) **Bullish Scenario** (35% probability): - **Breakout**: Above $122,000 (correction failure) - **Target**: $130,000-$135,000 (resumption higher) - **Extended**: $140,000-$145,000 (accelerated move) ### Medium-term Targets (Next 1-6 months) **After Correction Completion**: - **Wave 5 Minimum**: $135,000-$145,000 - **Wave 5 Extended**: $155,000-$165,000 - **Wave 5 Extreme**: $180,000-$200,000 - **Timeline**: December 2025 - March 2026 ### Long-term Targets (6-24 months) **Super Cycle Completion**: - **Conservative**: $200,000-$250,000 - **Moderate**: $300,000-$400,000 - **Aggressive**: $500,000-$750,000 - **Timeline**: 2026-2027 --- ## 14. VOLUME ANALYSIS & MARKET STRUCTURE ### Volume Profile Analysis **High Volume Nodes (Value Areas)**: - **Primary Node**: $85,000-$95,000 (28% of volume - major support) - **Secondary Node**: $105,000-$115,000 (22% of volume - current battle zone) - **Tertiary Node**: $65,000-$75,000 (18% of volume - deep support) **Point of Control (POC)**: $89,500 (highest volume level) **Value Area High (VAH)**: $118,000 (fair value upper bound) **Value Area Low (VAL)**: $72,000 (fair value lower bound) ### Volume Trend Analysis **Recent Volume Characteristics**: - **New High Volume**: Extremely high at $124,597 (climactic) - **Decline Volume**: Above average (selling pressure) - **Bounce Volume**: Below average (weak demand) - **Current Trend**: Declining volume on bounces (bearish) ### On-Balance Volume (OBV) **Trend Analysis**: - **Recent Peak**: At all-time highs (confirming price) - **Current Action**: Declining with price - **Divergence**: No major divergence yet - **Next Signal**: Break below June OBV levels would be bearish ### Volume Oscillators **Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)**: - **Current Reading**: -0.25 (distribution) - **Trend**: Declining from positive territory - **Signal**: Below -0.20 confirms selling pressure **Volume Rate of Change (VROC)**: - **Current**: +75% (well above average) - **Pattern**: High volume associated with decline - **Implication**: Professional distribution occurring ### Accumulation/Distribution Line **Current Trend**: Declining (distribution phase) **Recent Action**: Sharp decline from highs **Divergence**: Confirming price action **Signal**: Recovery above recent highs needed for bullish confirmation --- ## 15. MARKET SENTIMENT & INTERMARKET ANALYSIS ### Bitcoin Sentiment Indicators **Fear & Greed Index**: 25 (Fear territory) - **Recent Change**: From Extreme Greed (85) to Fear - **Historical Pattern**: Fear levels often mark good buying opportunities - **Contrarian Signal**: Current fear suggests potential bottom formation ### Institutional Activity **ETF Flows**: - **Recent Trend**: Net outflows during correction - **Major Players**: BlackRock, Fidelity showing mixed flows - **Institutional Sentiment**: Cautious after rapid gains **Corporate Treasury Activity**: - **MicroStrategy**: Continues accumulation strategy - **Other Corporates**: Reduced activity at current levels - **Sovereign Wealth**: Exploratory positions being built ### Correlation Analysis **Traditional Markets**: - **S&P 500 Correlation**: 0.45 (moderate positive) - **Gold Correlation**: -0.15 (slight negative) - **DXY Correlation**: -0.65 (strong negative) - **10-Year Treasury**: -0.35 (moderate negative) **Crypto Market**: - **Ethereum Correlation**: 0.88 (very strong) - **Altcoin Correlation**: 0.75 (strong) - **Market Dominance**: 52.5% (stable) ### Macroeconomic Environment **Federal Reserve Policy**: - **Current Stance**: Accommodative - **Rate Environment**: Supportive for risk assets - **Forward Guidance**: Stable policy expected **Global Liquidity**: - **USD Liquidity**: Ample - **Cross-border Flows**: Improving - **Risk Appetite**: Recovering from recent caution --- ## 16. DERIVATIVES & OPTIONS ANALYSIS ### Futures Market Structure **Contango/Backwardation**: - **Current Structure**: Slight contango (normal) - **3-Month Basis**: +2.1% annualized - **6-Month Basis**: +4.8% annualized - **Trend**: Normalizing from extreme levels ### Options Market **Put/Call Ratio**: 1.45 (elevated fear) **Implied Volatility**: 68% (high but declining from 85%) **Volatility Term Structure**: Steep (near-term elevated) **Key Option Strikes**: - **$120,000 Calls**: Heavy resistance - **$110,000 Puts**: Major support - **$100,000 Puts**: Psychological support ### Perpetual Swaps **Funding Rates**: -0.02% (slightly negative) **Open Interest**: Declining (position unwinding) **Long/Short Ratio**: 55/45 (slight bullish bias) --- ## 17. RISK ASSESSMENT & SCENARIOS ### Primary Scenario - Continued Correction (65% Probability) **Process**: Elliott Wave (4) completion **Timeline**: 2-4 weeks additional correction **Target Zone**: $108,000-$115,000 **Catalyst**: Technical correction, profit-taking **Risk Factors**: Deeper than expected correction **Trading Strategy**: - **Wait for oversold levels**: RSI <40, price <$112,000 - **Scale in gradually**: 25% positions every $3,000 decline - **Stop loss**: Below $95,000 (trend invalidation) ### Secondary Scenario - Correction Failure (25% Probability) **Process**: V-bottom reversal from current levels **Catalyst**: Strong institutional buying, ETF inflows **Timeline**: 1-2 weeks to new highs **Target**: $130,000-$140,000 initially **Risk**: False breakout leading to deeper correction **Trading Strategy**: - **Breakout Entry**: Above $122,000 with volume - **Stop Loss**: $115,000 - **Target**: $135,000 initial ### Bear Scenario - Major Correction (10% Probability) **Process**: Larger degree Wave 4 correction **Catalyst**: Regulatory concerns, macro shock **Timeline**: 2-6 months **Target Zone**: $85,000-$95,000 **Probability**: Low due to strong adoption trends **Risk Management**: - **Hard Stop**: $95,000 (major trend break) - **Position Sizing**: Reduce exposure significantly - **Hedging**: Consider put options --- ## 18. TRADING STRATEGIES & EXECUTION ### Scalping Strategy (5M-15M timeframes) **Market Hours**: Focus on high liquidity periods **Range Trading**: - **Buy**: $116,500-$117,000 (support bounces) - **Sell**: $118,500-$119,000 (resistance) - **Stop**: $300-500 outside range - **Target**: $800-1,200 profit per trade **Breakout Scalping**: - **Long Setup**: Break above $119,000 with volume - **Short Setup**: Break below $116,000 with volume - **Risk/Reward**: 1:2 minimum ratio ### Day Trading Strategy (15M-1H timeframes) **Trend Following Setup**: - **Entry**: Direction of 1H trend with RSI confirmation - **Stop**: Beyond recent swing high/low - **Target**: Next significant resistance/support - **Position Size**: 1-2% risk per trade **Mean Reversion Setup**: - **Entry**: Extreme RSI levels (>70 or <30) - **Direction**: Counter-trend back to mean - **Stop**: New extreme in same direction - **Target**: VWAP or key moving average ### Swing Trading Strategy (4H-Daily timeframes) **Correction Completion Setup**: - **Entry Zone**: $108,000-$115,000 (scale in) - **Confirmation**: RSI oversold + bullish divergence - **Stop Loss**: $95,000 (major support break) - **Target 1**: $125,000 (25% position) - **Target 2**: $140,000 (50% position) - **Target 3**: $160,000 (25% position) - **Timeline**: 3-12 months **Position Management**: - **Initial Risk**: 3-5% of portfolio - **Add on weakness**: Up to 10% total allocation - **Trail stops**: Below major swing lows - **Profit taking**: At resistance confluences ### Long-term Investment Strategy (Weekly-Monthly) **Dollar Cost Averaging**: - **Allocation**: 5-20% of investment portfolio - **Frequency**: Weekly or monthly purchases - **Range**: Accumulate heavily below $120,000 - **Reduce**: Above $150,000 - **Target**: 5-10 year hold period **Strategic Accumulation**: - **Phase 1**: Current correction ($105,000-$120,000) - **Phase 2**: Major correction if occurs ($85,000-$105,000) - **Hold Through**: All intermediate volatility - **Exit Strategy**: Partial above $200,000 --- ## 19. ADVANCED PATTERN RECOGNITION ### Fractal Analysis **Current Fractal Structure**: - **Major Fractal**: 2020-2025 bull market cycle - **Intermediate Fractal**: March 2024 - Present wave structure - **Minor Fractal**: August 2025 correction pattern - **Micro Fractal**: Daily price action patterns **Fractal Projections**: - **Self-similarity**: Current correction mirrors March 2024 structure - **Time Ratios**: 0.618 and 1.618 Fibonacci relationships - **Price Ratios**: Similar percentage corrections expected ### Market Geometry **Sacred Geometry Levels**: - **Golden Ratio Points**: $108,697 (61.8% correction) - **Phi Projections**: $138,449 (1.618 extension) - **Square Root Relationships**: Key support/resistance ### Cycle Harmonics **Price Cycle Analysis**: - **210-Day Cycle**: Major intermediate cycle - **89-Day Cycle**: Current correction cycle - **34-Day Cycle**: Short-term turning points - **Confluence**: Multiple cycles bottoming late August --- ## 20. FINAL SYNTHESIS & RECOMMENDATIONS ### Technical Confluence Assessment **Overall Score**: 7.1/10 (Moderately Bearish Near-term, Bullish Long-term) **Bearish Factors** (Near-term): - Elliott Wave (4) correction in progress - Multiple harmonic patterns targeting lower levels - Wyckoff distribution characteristics - Candlestick reversal patterns at highs - RSI and momentum indicators declining **Bullish Factors** (Medium/Long-term): - Secular bull market structure intact - Strong volume support at lower levels - Institutional adoption continuing - Favorable macro environment - Historical cycle patterns supportive ### Primary Trading Recommendation **Strategy**: Patience for better entry opportunities **Current Assessment**: Wait for correction completion **Preferred Entry**: $108,000-$115,000 (scale in approach) **Risk Management**: Hard stop below $95,000 (major trend invalidation) **Target Sequence**: $125,000 → $140,000 → $165,000 → $200,000+ **Timeline**: 6-18 months for major targets ### Tactical Approach by Timeframe **Intraday (Next 1-7 days)**: - **Bias**: Bearish to neutral - **Strategy**: Fade bounces, wait for oversold - **Key Levels**: $117,000 support, $120,000 resistance - **Risk**: High volatility expected **Swing (Next 2-8 weeks)**: - **Bias**: Bearish then bullish - **Strategy**: Accumulate on weakness below $115,000 - **Target**: Correction completion then reversal - **Risk**: 15-25% downside possible **Position (Next 3-12 months)**: - **Bias**: Strongly bullish - **Strategy**: Build core positions on any weakness - **Target**: New all-time highs $150,000-$200,000 - **Risk**: Major trend change below $85,000 ### Portfolio Allocation Recommendations **Conservative Investors**: - **Current Allocation**: 2-5% (wait for lower levels) - **Target Allocation**: 5-10% (on correction completion) - **Strategy**: DCA approach, ETF exposure preferred **Moderate Risk Investors**: - **Current Allocation**: 5-10% (begin scaling) - **Target Allocation**: 10-15% (full position on weakness) - **Strategy**: Swing trading with core position **Aggressive Traders**: - **Current Allocation**: 10-15% (active trading) - **Target Allocation**: 15-25% (leveraged strategies possible) - **Strategy**: Full spectrum trading across timeframes ### Risk Management Framework **Position Sizing**: - **Maximum Risk**: 20% portfolio (aggressive) - **Moderate Risk**: 10-15% portfolio - **Conservative**: 5% portfolio maximum **Stop Loss Strategy**: - **Tight Stops**: Day trading (2-5%) - **Swing Stops**: Major support breaks (10-15%) - **Position Stops**: Trend invalidation (20-25%) **Profit Taking**: - **Scale out**: At major resistance levels - **Trail stops**: Below significant support levels - **Long-term holds**: Multi-year perspective --- ## CONCLUSION Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture following the recent all-time highs above $124,500. The comprehensive technical analysis across multiple methodologies strongly suggests a corrective phase is underway, presenting both challenges and opportunities for different trading approaches. **Key Findings**: 1. **Elliott Wave analysis** indicates Wave (4) correction targeting $108,000-$115,000 2. **Harmonic patterns** confirm potential deeper pullback before resumption 3. **Wyckoff method** shows distribution characteristics but within larger accumulation 4. **Gann analysis** supports both correction targets and longer-term bullish projections 5. **Traditional indicators** confirm corrective phase with oversold bounce opportunities **Strategic Outlook**: The analysis strongly favors patience in the near-term, allowing the current correction to complete before establishing significant long positions. The secular bull market remains intact, and any weakness below $115,000 should be viewed as an accumulation opportunity for the next major leg higher toward $150,000-$200,000+ targets. **Final Recommendation**: Maintain a constructively bullish medium-term outlook while respecting the current corrective phase. Use any weakness below $115,000 as an opportunity to build positions for the anticipated final wave higher in this major cycle, expected to begin in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by sunya
# USDCHF Technical Analysis & Forecast# USDCHF Technical Analysis & Forecast **Base Price:** 0.80676 (August 15, 2025) ## Executive Summary The USDCHF pair at 0.80676 presents a critical juncture with multiple technical confluences suggesting potential directional moves across various timeframes. ## Japanese Candlestick Analysis ### Intraday Patterns (5M-1H) - **Key Reversal Patterns:** Look for Doji, Hammer, or Shooting Star formations around psychological levels - **Continuation Patterns:** Marubozu candles indicating strong momentum - **Support/Resistance:** 0.8050, 0.8080, 0.8100 as key levels ### Swing Patterns (4H-Monthly) - **Engulfing Patterns:** Critical at weekly open/close levels - **Evening/Morning Star:** Watch for three-candle reversals at major S/R - **Harami Patterns:** Indicating potential consolidation phases ## Harmonic Pattern Analysis ### M & W Patterns - **M-Top Formation:** Potential resistance around 0.8120-0.8150 zone - **W-Bottom:** Support confluence near 0.7980-0.8020 region - **Neckline:** Critical break levels at 0.8065 and 0.8085 ### ABCD Patterns - **Bullish ABCD:** Target projection to 0.8180-0.8220 - **Bearish ABCD:** Downside target 0.7920-0.7950 - **Extension Ratios:** 127.2%, 161.8%, 200% Fibonacci extensions ## Elliott Wave Analysis ### Wave Structure - **Current Position:** Likely in Wave 4 correction of larger impulse - **Wave 5 Target:** 0.8250-0.8300 for bullish completion - **Alternative Count:** ABC correction with C-wave target 0.7850 ### Time Projections - **Intraday:** 2-4 hour wave cycles - **Swing:** 5-8 day wave completions - **Primary:** 3-5 week major wave cycles ## Wyckoff Analysis ### Market Phases - **Accumulation Zone:** 0.7980-0.8050 - **Distribution Zone:** 0.8150-0.8250 - **Spring Test:** Watch for false breaks below 0.8000 - **Upthrust:** Potential fake breaks above 0.8200 ### Volume Analysis - **Climactic Volume:** Key reversal indicator - **No Demand:** Weakness on rallies - **Stopping Volume:** Support zone confirmation ## W.D. Gann Theory Analysis ### Time Theory - **Natural Time Cycles:** 30, 45, 60, 90-day cycles - **Anniversary Dates:** Previous significant highs/lows - **Seasonal Tendency:** CHF strength in Q4 historically ### Square of 9 - **Current Level:** 0.80676 sits at 291° on the square - **Key Angles:** 45°, 90°, 180°, 270° projections - **Price Targets:** 0.8125 (315°), 0.7975 (270°) ### Angle Theory - **1x1 Angle:** Primary trend line support/resistance - **2x1 & 1x2 Angles:** Acceleration/deceleration zones - **Fan Lines:** Multiple support/resistance confluence ### Price and Time Squaring - **Price Squares:** 0.8100 (major square), 0.7900 (support square) - **Time Squares:** 144 hours, 233 hours for next major moves - **Geometric Relationships:** 50% retracement levels critical ## Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis ### Cloud Analysis - **Kumo Position:** Price above/below cloud significance - **Cloud Twist:** Future support/resistance at 0.8090 - **Cloud Thickness:** Strength of support/resistance ### Line Analysis - **Tenkan-sen:** Short-term momentum (9-period) - **Kijun-sen:** Medium-term trend (26-period) - **Chikou Span:** Confirmation signal positioning ## Technical Indicators ### RSI Analysis - **Overbought:** >70 on 4H+ timeframes - **Oversold:** <30 indicating reversal potential - **Divergence:** Hidden/regular divergence patterns ### Bollinger Bands - **Band Width:** Volatility expansion/contraction - **Band Squeeze:** Breakout preparation - **Price Action:** Outside band reversions ### VWAP - **Daily VWAP:** 0.8055 as key pivot - **Weekly VWAP:** 0.8020 major support - **Volume Profile:** High volume nodes at 0.8040, 0.8100 ### Moving Averages - **SMA 20/50/200:** Trend direction confirmation - **EMA 8/21:** Short-term momentum - **WMA:** Weighted recent price action emphasis ## Multi-Timeframe Analysis ### Intraday (5M-1H) - **5M:** Scalping range 0.8055-0.8085 - **15M:** Micro-trend changes, 15-pip ranges - **30M:** Key breakout timeframe - **1H:** Primary intraday trend confirmation ### Swing (4H-Monthly) - **4H:** Major trend shifts, 100-150 pip moves - **Daily:** Primary trend direction - **Weekly:** Long-term support/resistance - **Monthly:** Major trend cycle analysis ## Key Levels & Targets ### Support Levels 1. **0.8050** - Immediate support 2. **0.8020** - Weekly VWAP support 3. **0.7980** - Major support zone 4. **0.7950** - Monthly support ### Resistance Levels 1. **0.8085** - Immediate resistance 2. **0.8100** - Psychological resistance 3. **0.8150** - Major resistance zone 4. **0.8200** - Monthly resistance ## Trading Scenarios ### Bullish Scenario (Probability: 45%) - **Entry:** Above 0.8090 - **Target 1:** 0.8150 - **Target 2:** 0.8220 - **Stop Loss:** Below 0.8040 ### Bearish Scenario (Probability: 40%) - **Entry:** Below 0.8050 - **Target 1:** 0.7980 - **Target 2:** 0.7920 - **Stop Loss:** Above 0.8100 ### Neutral/Range Scenario (Probability: 15%) - **Range:** 0.8040-0.8120 - **Strategy:** Buy support, sell resistance - **Breakout:** Wait for clear direction ## Risk Management - **Position Size:** 1-2% risk per trade - **Volatility:** Adjust for CHF news events - **Correlation:** Monitor EUR/USD, GBP/CHF impact - **Time Decay:** Close positions before major news ## Forecast Summary The USDCHF pair shows mixed signals with slight bearish bias in the short term due to technical confluence around resistance zones. Key levels to watch are the 0.8050 support and 0.8100 resistance. A break of either level should provide clear directional bias for the next major move. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
by sunya
Technical Analysis for US500 (S&P 500)Closing Price: 6447.8 (16th Aug 2025, 12:50 PM UTC+4) Analysis Methods: Japanese Candlesticks, Harmonic Patterns (ABCD, M/W), Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Gann Theory (Time/Square of 9/Angles), Ichimoku, RSI, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, Moving Averages (MA/EMA/SMA/WMA). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Long-Term Trend (Weekly/Monthly) Elliott Wave: US500 is in Wave 5 of a bull cycle (Wave 3 peak: 6500, Wave 4 dip to 6200). Target: 6600–6700 (1.618 extension of Wave 1). Gann Price Forecasting: Square of 9: √6447.8 ≈ 80.30 → Key resistance: 81² = 6561, support: 80² = 6400. Break above 6561 targets 6724 (82²). Ichimoku (Monthly): Tenkan/Kijun: Bullish crossover (Tenkan: 6300 > Kijun: 6200). Cloud: Price above Senkou Span (6100–6250) – bullish structure. Moving Averages: Weekly SMA(200): 6100 (major support). Swing Outlook: Bullish but extended. Final Wave 5 targets 6600–6700. 2. Medium-Term Swing (4H/Daily) Harmonic Patterns: Bearish ABCD on Daily: A: 6500 → B: 6350 → C: 6450 → D: 6470–6490 (1.272 BC extension). Bullish Gartley (M Pattern) near 6350 (0.786 XA retracement). Wyckoff Phase: Distribution above 6450: Upthrust at 6470 (16th Aug) on fading volume. Lack of demand above 6460. Gann Theory: Time Window: Aug 19–22 (Square of 9 reversal cluster). Price-Time Squaring: 6447.8 aligns with Aug 16 – consolidation likely. Gann Angle: 1x1 support at 6420. Indicators: RSI(14) + Bollinger Bands (Daily): RSI: 66 (neutral-bullish). Price hugging upper BB(20,2) at 6475 – band expansion signals volatility. VWAP (Weekly): 6380 (swing support). Swing Trade Setup: Short near 6470–6490 → Target 6400. Stop-loss: 6520. Long near 6350 → Target 6500. Stop-loss: 6300. 3. Intraday Outlook (5M–4H) Key Levels: Resistance: 6460 (Gann 1x1), 6475 (daily high), 6490 (ABCD target). Support: 6440 (VWAP), 6430 (Ichimoku cloud), 6420 (Gann angle). Indicators: Ichimoku (1H): Tenkan: 6445, Kijun: 6435 → Price above both (weak bullish). Cloud: Thin bullish (6425–6435) – intraday support. RSI + Bollinger Bands (1H): RSI(14): 59 (neutral). Price testing mid-BB(20,2) at 6445 – break below signals bearish shift. VWAP + MAs: VWAP: 6442 (intraday pivot). EMA(20): 6448 (resistance). Candlestick Patterns: 4H Bearish Engulfing at 6465 → Reversal signal. 1H Evening Star at 6460 → Confirms weakness. Gann Intraday Squaring: Time Cycle: 14:00–16:00 UTC+4 (NY open) for volatility. Price Harmony: Close below 6445 targets 6430 → 6420. Intraday Trade Plan: Sell below 6445 → Target 6430 (VWAP) → 6420 (Gann support). Buy above 6465 only if RSI <65 → Target 6475. Stop-Loss: 10–15 points. Summary of Key Signals Time Frame Bias Entry Target Stop-Loss Intraday Bearish <6445 6440-6445 6420-6430 6455 Swing Bullish 6350-6370 6450-6500 6300 Swing Bearish 6470-6485 6400-6420 6520 Critical Events: Gann Reversal Window: Aug 19–22 (watch for Fed minutes/Nvidia earnings). Daily Close >6500 invalidates bearish patterns and targets 6561. Risk Note: US500 is highly sensitive to tech earnings and Fed policy. Use tight stops during events. Disclaimer: Technical analysis reflects historical patterns, not guarantees. Fundamental catalysts can override signals. Always use risk management. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade .( world wide web shunya dot trade ) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by sunya
LLY \$687.50 Call – One-Day High-Momentum Play🚀 LLY \$687.50 Call – One-Day High-Momentum Play **Sentiment:** 🟢 *Moderate Bullish* * **Call/Put Ratio:** 3.08 → strong speculative interest * **Daily RSI:** <45, rising 📈 * **Weekly RSI:** <50, rising 📈 * **Volume:** Weak (0.9× last week) → limited institutional support * **VIX:** <15 → favorable for directional calls * **Gamma Risk:** HIGH ⚡ — expiry in 1 day --- ### 📊 **Consensus Snapshot** ✅ Strong bullish options flow ⚠️ Weak volume + high gamma → cautious sizing 💡 Low volatility favors call strategy --- ### 🎯 **Trade Setup** * **Type:** CALL (Single-leg) * **Strike:** \$687.50 * **Expiry:** 2025-08-15 * **Entry:** \$0.79 * **Profit Target:** \$1.20 (+153%) * **Stop Loss:** \$0.40 (–50%) * **Confidence:** 70% * **Entry Timing:** Market open --- 💬 *High-risk, short-term expiry play — monitor closely.* 📌 *Not financial advice. DYOR.* --- **#LLY #OptionsTrading #CallOptions #DayTrading #StocksToWatch #GammaRisk #OptionsFlow #TradingSignals**
NYSE:LLYLong
by quantsignals
Bitcoin Macro Tailwind Meets Short-Term Volatility Battle__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin’s momentum remains bullish on higher timeframes, but the price action is currently stalling below a critical resistance cluster, fueling volatility and intraday shakeouts. Momentum 📈: The prevailing swing structure remains bullish, driven by robust mid/long-term trends; however, there is clear momentum fatigue with shallow corrections appearing on lower timeframes. Key levels: • Major resistances : 122,450–123,300 (primary pivot battle zone across daily/4H/12H), 119,812 (intermediate historic resistance now contested) • Main supports : 119,812–118,050 (multi-TF pivotal demand zone), 114,967 (1D/4H pivot, also Weekly support) • These zones are critical: breaking above 123,300 could spark a fast move toward 127k, while holding above 119,800/118,000 keeps the bullish structure intact. Volumes: Normal to moderate on primary timeframes, but very high short-term spikes on 15min underline active volatility traps. Multi-timeframe signals: Medium/long-term TFs (1D, 12H, 6H, 4H, 2H, 1H—all Up) confirm the bullish bias; however, the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator shifts to SELL on the 30min/15min, reinforcing near-term caution. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: “Neutral sell” on the broader trend, flipping to SELL at short-term extremes—underscoring the need to defend positions as volatility rises into resistance. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The strategic backdrop favors bullish setups as long as price action holds major support, but discipline and swift reaction are needed while Bitcoin hovers under vital resistance. Global bias: “Neutral buy” as long as 119,812/118,000 holds; any solid break below 118,000 flips the swing outlook neutral or bearish. Opportunities: • Tactical buy on structured pullback into 119,812/118,050 – key swing entry zone. • Conditional breakout trade above 123,300 – sets up an extension toward 127k, especially if shorts get squeezed. • Defensive scalp only on volatility flushes and rapid reclaim above 120,156/119,812. Risk zones / invalidations: • Confirmed breakdown below 119,812 is the first warning sign—opens risk of a retest of 118,000 or deeper. • Sustained loss of 118,000 = neutrality/bearishness resumes, opportunity for strategic selling may appear. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Accelerating global liquidity (US M2 surge, China credit) underpins the risk asset backdrop. • Geopolitical easing (Ukraine truce, G7 signals) reduces systemic threats; tailwinds for risk markets. • Looming short squeeze ($6B in shorts at 125k) could fuel explosive breakout moves if resistance breaks. Action plan: • Entry : Staggered buying into 119,812/118,050 or confirmed breakout above 123,300. • Stop : Below 118,000 (key swing stop). • TP1 : 122,450, TP2 : 123,300, TP3 : 127,000 short squeeze extension. • R/R: Moderate to high; optimal if entered near support or confirmed clean break. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-timeframe analysis shows strong trend alignment on higher frames, contrasted by rising volatility and trap risk on the intraday scale. 1D/12H/6H/4H: Bullish structure and trend intact, with broad support at 119,812/118,050; strong resistance cluster at 122,450/123,300 preventing further upside for now. Each dip to support has triggered buyer defense and recovery. 2H/1H: Sideways consolidation at the upper range, above key supports. Corrections remain shallow unless 119,800/118,000 break. 30min/15min: Clear divergences—momentum shifts bearish, volume spikes, trap risk is high. These signals warn against chasing breakouts prematurely and demand patience. The underlying theme: The pivotal zone between 118,000 (support) and 123,300 (resistance) is where momentum for the coming days will be defined—traders must monitor reaction closely rather than anticipate. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro and on-chain trends offer fundamentally bullish support for Bitcoin, although short-term volatility and positioning require active risk management. Macro events: • Global liquidity is on the rise (US M2, China credit), supporting higher valuations for risk assets. • Market expectation for US Fed rate cuts, bullish macro calendar, and reduced credit spreads—all positive for risk-on sentiment. • Easing geopolitics (Ukraine diplomacy, G7 moves) lowers the threat of sudden shocks, adding stability. Bitcoin analysis: • Strong institutional inflows and treasury allocations, growing support from large funds. • Key short squeeze level at 125k—liquidation of $6B in shorts could drive a rapid extension if resistance is breached. • Bitcoin dominance dropping below 60% hints at capital rotation into alts but can also revert quickly if the market overheats. • Institutional custody solutions and secure insurance ramping up, supporting greater adoption. On-chain data: • Profitability among holders is very strong; minimal signs of forced selling or capitulation. • No major signs of excessive euphoria; volatility implied to be low—a classic contrarian prelude to a volatility spike. Expected impact: These drivers underpin the swing-long bias but demand precise execution and tactical caution around major resistance traps and volatility spikes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin remains in a mature uptrend but is stalling beneath heavy resistance, requiring patience and disciplined execution. The global trend is bullish as long as 119,800/118,000 zone holds—these are structurally critical. The most relevant setup is a conditional breakout play above 123,300, targeting 127k if momentum and shorts align, but caution is needed due to heightened short-term trap risks. Macro tailwinds (liquidity surge, geopolitics improving) give deeper support but don’t remove the need for vigilance as intraday volatility remains acute. Stay nimble: avoid chasing into resistance, wait for signals of real flow, and prepare for fast reversals near the key battle zones.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold is holding above the $3,353 support after reclaiming the 50MA (pink), but price remains capped just under the $3,367 minor resistance level and 200MA (green), which is acting as dynamic resistance. A decisive break and hold above the minor resistance and 200MA would likely strengthen bullish momentum, opening the way to $3,380, followed by $3,399 and $3,422. Failure to break through could see price rotate back toward $3,353; a break below this level would shift focus to $3,329 and $3,313. 📌 Key Levels to watch Resistance: ‣ $3,367 ‣ $3,380 ‣ $3,399 ‣ $3,422 Support: ‣ $3,353 ‣ $3,329 ‣ $3,313 ‣ $3,295 🔎 Fundamental Focus A high-impact day for USD with Core PPI, PPI, and Unemployment Claims — all potential volatility drivers for gold. Later, multiple FOMC member speeches and President Trump’s remarks could add further swings. Expect sharp intraday moves around data releases and headline risk into the US session — manage positions and risk accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
BTCUSD – Bearish Retracement Towards Key Liquidity Zone📊 BTCUSD – Bearish Retracement Towards Key Liquidity Zone BTCUSD is currently trading near 116,425, showing signs of a potential bearish retracement after testing the previous resistance zone around 117,000–119,000. The chart structure highlights multiple Break of Structure (BOS) points, confirming shifts in market sentiment. Technical Breakdown Previous Resistance Rejection Price failed to hold above the 117,000 mark, indicating strong selling pressure from the prior supply zone. The rejection aligns with a liquidity grab above the recent highs, suggesting smart money distribution. Liquidity & Fair Value Gaps There’s a visible Liquidity/Fair Value Gap from the late July rally, which may now act as a magnet for price. The market tends to fill these inefficiencies before deciding the next major trend move. Target & Support Zone The next key support and liquidity pool rests between 113,500 – 114,000, highlighted as the target zone. This area has confluence with previous accumulation phases, making it a probable point for a bullish reaction if tested. Volume Profile Context Volume nodes indicate heavier trading activity below current levels, suggesting that a drop towards 114,000 could be met with increased buyer interest. Market Outlook Primary Bias: Short-term bearish retracement. Immediate Target: 114,000 liquidity zone. Invalidation: A daily close above 117,500 may shift sentiment back to bullish, opening the path toward 119,000–121,000. Trading Insight: Aggressive traders may look for short setups below 116,500, targeting 114,000. Conservative traders may wait for price to tap into the support/target zone for potential long opportunities with tight risk management.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Mentor_Michael03
Bitcoin Bears Lining Up? My Short PlanBitcoin is flirting with a potential pullback, and I’ve got my eyes locked on this short setup. The setup is a double top on the hourly chart. 📊 Risk/Reward: 3.7 🎯 Entry: 117 515 🛑 Stop Loss: 118 033 💰 Take Profit 1 (50%): 115 629 💰 Take Profit 2 (50%): 115 116 Seeing negative rsi divergence on the hourly chart, signaling slowing buying momentum. I am looking for the hourly candle to close within the range drawn on the chart with lower volume. I’ll be scaling out at TP1 and letting the second half ride if the bears get their way. 📅 Will today be the start of a deeper drop? 📍 I’m documenting my trades as part of my live trading journey – follow along to see how this one plays out and catch my next setups in real time. Not financial advice – just my personal analysis.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by GTradingMethod
BTCUSD Market Breakdown – Liquidity Sweep Incoming?BTCUSD Market Breakdown – Liquidity Sweep Incoming? 🔍 Technical Analysis (July 29, 2025) Chart Observations: 1. BOS (Break of Structure): Multiple BOS events are identified, confirming key directional shifts in market structure. The last BOS near the support zone signals bearish intent. 2. Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG): A clean bearish FVG is left behind after a sharp drop on the 25th, indicating institutional imbalance and potential retracement area. Price rejected from that FVG later. 3. Equal Low & Sellside Liquidity: The highlighted equal lows around July 25-26 mark areas of resting liquidity—prime targets for smart money manipulation. 4. New FVG Formed (July 28): Another bearish FVG appears just before the projected breakdown, strengthening the case for a bearish continuation. 5. Support Zone Target – $115K: A clean support zone (marked between 114,500–115,500) sits directly below the current market price. This is the likely liquidity target after sweeping equal lows. 6. Volume Profile (VRVP): Low-volume nodes between the current price and support suggest minimal resistance to a sharp downward move. ⸻ 🎯 Conclusion: The structure, FVGs, and liquidity pools all point toward a liquidity raid below the equal lows, aiming for the support target near $115K. Traders should watch for a decisive break below the current range, especially if the FVG acts as resistance again.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Mentor_Michael03
2
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold remains in a bearish structure, consolidating in a narrow range after the sharp drop earlier this week. Price is trading around 3,330, testing the 3,334 resistance zone while still below the 200MA (3,362), which may act as dynamic resistance. As long as price stays below 3,348–3,362, the bias remains to the downside, with a break below 3,309 likely exposing the 3,289–3,267 support zone. A clean reclaim above 3,334- 3,348 would neutralize the immediate downside pressure and open the path back toward 3,373–3,387. 📌 Key Levels to Watch Resistance: ‣ 3,334 ‣ 3,348 ‣ 3,362 ‣ 3,373 ‣ 3,387 Support: ‣ 3,309 ‣ 3,289 ‣ 3,267 ‣ 3,241 🔎Fundamental Focus – FOMC The FOMC rate decision and Powell’s press conference later today will be the key driver for gold. Expect sharp volatility and potential whipsaws around the release. ⚠️ Manage risk carefully, avoid chasing initial spikes, and wait for clear direction once the event dust settles.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
BTC Retested and Ready for the Next Leg Up?This CRYPTOCAP:BTC weekly chart shows a clean pattern of breakout → retest → rally. The 50 EMA has been acting like a strong dynamic support throughout the uptrend, keeping the structure intact. Every time price broke out of a consolidation or resistance zone, it came back, retested it, and then continued moving higher. Most recently, BTC broke above a key resistance, pulled back to retest it, and now it looks like the breakout has held. This is a classic bullish continuation setup, and historically, it’s led to strong follow-through moves. As long as BTC stays above the 50 EMA and holds support, the bullish structure remains intact. Thanks for reading! Stay sharp and trade safe.
Long
by unichartz
2