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DOW JONES eyes two Bullish Targets before the end of the year.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 5-month Channel Up and is currently on its new Bullish Leg following the October 10 bounce on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you can see, there is a high degree of symmetry between both the Bearish and Bullish Legs within this pattern and if that continues to hold, the immediate Target of the current Bullish Leg is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension at 47700, which we've already mentioned on our previous analysis. This time however, we also set a second Target towards the end of the year, being a +7.50% rise (standard Leg as you can see) from the bottom at 48500. Both Targets would make ideal technical Higher Highs for the Channel Up. Notice also how the October 10 bounce took place also on the 1D RSI's Lower Lows trend-line. An additional indication of a strong support for the long-term bullish trend. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
Bearish drop?Dow Jones (US30) could rise to the pivot, whichis a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 46,211.80 1st Support: 45,274.72 1st Resistance: 46,876.77 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US30Short
by IC Markets
DOW JONES bounced at the bottom of the Channel Up. Buy signal.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up, with last Friday's flash crash breaching marginally below its 1D MA50 (red trend-line). That touched the bottom of the pattern and is technically a Higher Low, identical to the what the previous Bearish Leg did on the August 01 Low. As you can see both Legs declined by -4.00% with their 4H RSIs touching the -20.00 level and rebounded. That is a technical Buy Signal, the strongest you can get within this Channel Up, and as long as the pattern's bottom holds, we expect another rise to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (Our Target is 47700), similar to August's Bullish Leg. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
1
US30 – Key Pivot Test at 46,400 Before Directional BreakoutUS30 – Overview | Key Levels in Focus Before Next Move The Dow Jones remains in a consolidation phase, awaiting a clear breakout signal as traders weigh broader U.S. market uncertainty. The price is holding around a key technical zone, with 46,400 acting as the short-term pivot between bullish and bearish momentum. Technical Outlook A 1H close below 46,400 would confirm a bearish continuation, targeting 46,120 → 46,000, and a sustained break below this zone could extend toward 45,680. On the other hand, if the price closes above 46,510, it would reinforce bullish momentum toward 46,630 → 46,810, with potential to test 47,090 if buying pressure strengthens. Pivot Line: 46,400 Resistance: 46,630 · 46,810 · 47,090 Support: 46,120 · 46,000 · 45,680
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
$NKE Inverse Head and Shoulder $117 to gap fillThe chart is currently forming a classic Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a bullish reversal setup. The left shoulder and head have already been established, and the right shoulder is in development, suggesting a potential breakout to the upside. The neckline resistance appears to be around the $73-$85 range. A confirmed breakout above this level could trigger a measured move toward the $117 gap fill, which aligns with a previous price gap and serves as a logical target for bullish momentum. Key technical highlights: Target Price: ~$117 (gap fill zone) If volume confirms the breakout above the neckline, this setup could offer a strong risk/reward opportunity for traders. Keep an eye on RSI and MACD for confirmation of bullish momentum.
NYSE:NKELong
by sej4974
DOW JONES waiting for a rebound on its 4H MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us last week (October 01, see chart below) an excellent Buy Signal on its 4H MA100 (green trend-line) that almost instantly hit our 47000 Target: This time it is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) that is providing the new buy opportunity as following the 47000 Higher High of the Bullish Leg, the index pulled-back on a Bearish Leg. As you can see, the symmetry within this pattern remains high with all three Bullish Legs so far rising by around +2.75% and the 4 MA50 / 4H MA100 providing support for the Bearish Legs. As a result, we expect a new short-term rebound, as long as the 4H MA50 holds, targeting the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at 47180. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
DOW JONES Can the 4H MA100 initiate a comeback??Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 2-month Channel Up and today touched its 4H MA100 (green trend-line) for a second time after September 25. Both in terms of price and 4H RSI action, this sequence is similar to the September 02 rebound fractal, which also following a Bull Flag, it touched the 4H MA100 for a 2nd time and then moved on to a rally that peaked on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The 1.5 Fib ext also priced the Higher High of the first Bullish Leg of the pattern, thus offers currently the highest probability for our next Higher High. Our long Target is slightly below it at 47000, representing a +2.80% rise from the recent Low. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
US30: 50K MAGNET ACTIVATED! Historic Breakout Loading# 🚀 US30: 50K MAGNET ACTIVATED! Historic Breakout Loading 📊 Current Price: 49,269.7 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 ⏰ 📈 INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days) 🎯 BULLISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 49,200 - 49,300 📍 Stop Loss: 49,000 🛑 Target 1: 49,600 🎯 Target 2: 49,850 🚀 🎯 BEARISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 49,350 - 49,400 📍 Stop Loss: 49,500 🛑 Target 1: 48,900 🎯 Target 2: 48,650 📉 🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN 📊 KEY INDICATORS STATUS: RSI (14): 64.8 ⚡ *Bullish Momentum Zone* Bollinger Bands: Upper Band Squeeze 🔥 VWAP: 49,180 - Strong Support Base 💪 EMA 20: 49,150 ✅ *Golden Cross Active* Volume: Above Average 📊 *Institutional Flow* 🌊 WAVE ANALYSIS: Elliott Wave: Wave 3 Extension in Progress 🌊 Fibonacci Target: 50,200 (161.8% Extension) 🎯 🔄 HARMONIC PATTERNS: Bullish Cypher Completion at 49,100 ✨ Gartley PRZ Active - 49,050 Zone 🔄 ⚖️ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks) 🚀 BULLISH TARGETS: Psychological: 50,000 🏆 Weekly Target: 50,300 🌙 Gann Square: 50,625 ⭐ 📉 BEARISH INVALIDATION: Weekly Support: 48,800 ⚠️ Critical Break: 48,500 🚨 🎭 MARKET STRUCTURE: Trend: Strong Bullish Impulse 💪 Momentum: Accelerating 🔥 Wyckoff Phase: Mark-up Phase 📈 Ichimoku: All Systems Green 🟢 🏆 HISTORIC LEVELS: 50K Psychological: Major Magnet 🧲 All-Time High: 49,450 (Breaking Soon!) 💥 Monthly Pivot: 49,100 Support 🛡️ ⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT: Max Risk per Trade: 1% 🛡️ R:R Ratio: Minimum 1:3 ⚖️ Trailing Stops: Every 200 points 📏 🌍 MARKET CATALYSTS: Economic Data Supporting Rally 📈 Corporate Earnings Momentum 💼 Fed Policy Tailwinds Continue 🏛️ 🔥 CRITICAL WATCH ZONES: Breakout: 49,350 confirmed close 💥 Support: 49,100 | 48,950 | 48,800 🛡️ Resistance: 49,500 | 49,750 | 50,000 🚧 🎯 FINAL VERDICT: US30 poised for HISTORIC BREAKOUT to 50K! 🚀 Multiple confluences aligning perfectly! 💯 Bull flag formation targeting new ATH! 📈 Trade Management: Buy dips to VWAP support 💎 Key Level: Hold above 49,100 crucial 🔑 --- *⚠️ Disclaimer: Trading involves significant risk. Use proper position sizing. Educational purposes only.* For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade 🔔 Follow for Live Updates | 💬 Drop Your 50K Predictions Below
PEPPERSTONE:US30Long
by sunya
DOW JONES forming a bottom ahead of the next rally.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up since the start of September and right now it is consolidating after having hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, following a Higher High rejection at the top of the pattern. As you can see, the 0.618 Fib was always pull-back tested after a Higher High, with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) also or at least coming very close to. As a result, the current 4H candle consolidation is technically a bottoming process before the new Bullish Leg. The weakest Bullish Leg of this Channel Up has been +1.56%, which more than covers our 46900 Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
US30 (Dow Jones CFD) Forecast📊 US30 (Dow Jones CFD) Forecast 🔮 Closing Price: 46,279.7 (20th Sept 2025, 12:50 AM UTC+4) 🔥 Technical Outlook (Intraday + Swing) ⏱ Intraday Analysis (5m – 4H) ✅ Buy Zone: 46,050 – 46,150 🎯 🚀 Upside Targets: 46,420 → 46,580 → 46,750 🏆 ❌ Sell Zone: 46,600 – 46,700 📉 📉 Downside Targets: 46,380 → 46,200 → 45,950 ⚠️ 🔔 Watch for MA Golden Cross & VWAP bounce intraday. 📆 Swing Trading Analysis (Daily – Weekly) 🛡 Major Support: 45,800 – 45,500 🪙 📈 Swing Buy Entry: 45,600 – 45,800 🎯 Swing Bullish Targets: 46,950 → 47,320 → 47,900 🌟 📉 Swing Sell Entry: Below 45,480 ❗ 🎯 Swing Bearish Targets: 45,200 → 44,780 → 44,350 🕳 📚 Methodology Applied 📌 Chart Patterns: Head & Shoulders ⚠️, potential Bull Trap 🚨. 📌 Harmonics & Fib Levels: 0.618 pullback aligns near 45,950. 📌 Elliott Wave Count: Wave 3 extension may still be active 🔄. 📌 Ichimoku Cloud: Price above Kumo = bullish bias ☁️✅. 📌 Wyckoff: Distribution signals visible at 46,700 zone 🏦. 📌 RSI: 63 intraday → nearing overbought, but not extreme. 📌 Bollinger Bands: Upper band hit near 46,750 = resistance 🎯. 📌 VWAP: Anchored VWAP support ~46,100 = key intraday pivot. ⚖️ Market Context 📰 US Fed stance & inflation numbers remain catalysts. 🌍 Geopolitical tensions add volatility risk. 💵 Dollar Index strength can cap upside. 🎯 Trading Plan Summary 📊 Intraday Bias: Range-bound → Scalps between 46,100 – 46,700. 🚀 Swing Bias: Bullish above 45,800, bearish below 45,500. 🔑 Risk Mgmt: Always apply SL 80–120 pts (intraday) & 200–300 pts (swing). ⚠️ Note: This analysis is for educational purposes 📚. Trade with discipline, risk management, and DYOR 🔍. For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade 📝 TRADING CHECKLIST Before entering any position: - ✅ Confirm volume supports move - ✅ Check RSI for divergences - ✅ Verify multiple timeframe alignment - ✅ Set stop loss before entry - ✅ Calculate position size - ✅ Review correlation with DXY/SPX - ✅ Check economic calendar - ✅ Assess market sentiment ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:US30Long
by sunya
DOW JONES The Cyclical Pivot that MUST hold.Last week (Sep 03, see chart below) we gave a buy signal on Dow Jones (DJI) right at the bottom of its medium-term Channel Up, which quickly hit our 46100 Target: This time we switch to a much wider and longer term outlook on the 1W time-frame as we are just a day before the Fed Rate Decision. The index has been trading within a strong Channel Up ever since the April 07 2025 market bottom, product of the Trade War correction early in 2024. The 1D MA100 (red trend-line) crossed above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) forming a peculiar Bullish Cross, which interestingly enough, it is the 3rd time we see it since September 2020. As a result, it is highly critical and as you can see, after such cross, the 1W MA50 has historically led the index higher. What is perhaps even more critical however is the Pivot trend-line, which is essentially the former All Time High (ATH) turned into Support for the Channel Up pattern that have pushed the market higher since 2020. As you can see, that level always held and the two rallies that we've had on the pattern like the current one, completed +25% and +22% rallies above it before an eventually correction that broke below the 1W MA50. As a result, we could see another +20% rise at least, translating into a 54000 long-term Target, as long as both the 1W MA50 and the Pivot hold. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
Dow Jones support levels to watchThe Dow was the star of the show yesterday. After chopping sideways for a few days above the 45,000 mark – a crucial resistance level taken out back in late August – we’ve finally got that breakout everyone was waiting for. Thursday's push through the resistance around 45,760 is a strong signal that the bulls are still in charge. As long as we hold above that level on any retest, the uptrend looks very healthy. If we slip back below, yes, things could get a bit messy, but honestly, the broader structure still screams bullish. The 45,000 level remains the real line in the sand – lose that and the tone changes, but for now, I’d be surprised if we don’t see higher highs from here. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:US30Long
by FOREX.com
DOW JONES close to a Triangle break-out leading to 47500!Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since April 24. Following the August 21 Low, it entered a short-term Ascending Triangle pattern, looking identical to May - June, which also started after a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) test. That pattern was a re-Accumulation phase, which after breaking upwards pushed the price just below its 2.5 Fibonacci extension. With also similar 4H RSI sequences, we expect a similar reaction upon a Triangle break-out, targeting 47500 (Fib 2.5 extension). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
Technical Analysis: Is Gold Targeting 4000 USD?👋Hello everyone, what do you think about the trend of OANDA:XAUUSD ? Here’s my medium to long-term view: In recent weeks, U.S. economic data has shown a weakening labor market, with the latest NFP coming in below expectations. This increases the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates, driving more safe-haven flows into gold. As a result, gold has made new history, currently trading around 3650 USD. From a technical perspective, the trend is moving in line with Dow Theory. On the D1 chart, the bullish structure remains intact. Price has completed wave 1 and its correction, and is now in the process of forming the next impulsive wave to extend the uptrend. According to Elliott Wave, gold has already formed waves (1) and (2). Wave (3) is developing and could soon move into a mild wave (4) correction before advancing to wave (5). My target is the psychological level of 3700 USD, with potential extension toward the 4xxx zone. In the short term, the 3,545–3,560 USD range is the nearest support. If it breaks, price could retreat to the 3,450 USD area, which would act as a medium-term accumulation zone. Given the current trend, the strategy is to buy on pullbacks, with scalping also a reasonable option. Always manage risk carefully with proper TP and SL . ⭐️This is just my personal view based on technical analysis. Gold is also influenced by news, so this is not investment advice, only a perspective on the precious metal. If you have any thoughts or interesting ideas, feel free to share them in the comments! Good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kevinn_Nguyen
15
US30 At a Monumental High - Parabolic or Poised to Pull Back?US30 Technical Analysis: 🏭 At a Monumental High - Parabolic or Poised to Pull Back? 📉 Asset: US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average CFD) Analysis Date: September 5, 2025 Current Closing Price: 45,411.3 (as of 12:59 AM UTC+4) Timeframes Analyzed: 1H, 4H, D, W Executive Summary & Market Outlook 🧐 The US30 is trading at an all-time high in a powerful, near-parabolic advance. 🚀 While the trend is unequivocally bullish, the index is displaying extreme overbought conditions and is testing a major psychological barrier at 45,500. This represents a classic FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) zone. A decisive breakout could see an extension of the rally, but the risk of a sharp, profit-driven pullback is significantly elevated. 📊 Prudence suggests waiting for a better risk-reward entry rather than chasing the move. This analysis outlines key levels for intraday traders 🎯 and swing traders 📈. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 🔍 1. Trend Analysis (Daily & 4-Hour Chart): Primary Trend: 🟢 Strongly Bullish. Price is miles above all key moving averages, which are fanned out bullishly. Momentum: 🟡 Exhaustion Signs. The rally has been almost vertical. Such moves are unsustainable in the short term and often conclude with a volatile correction. 2. Key Chart Patterns & Theories: Parabolic Rise 📈➡️📉: The chart structure is parabolic. While bullish, these patterns are notoriously fragile and prone to sharp reversals as traders take profits. Elliott Wave Theory 🌊: The rally is a clear five-wave impulse. We are likely in the final stages of Wave 5. This implies the completion of a cycle and warns that a larger, more complex corrective phase (Wave A-B-C or a deep Wave 4) is increasingly probable. A typical retracement target would be the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the entire Wave 3 rally. Ichimoku Cloud (H4/D1) ☁️: Price is extremely far above the Cloud on all timeframes, indicating massive bullish momentum but also a severe over-extension from equilibrium. A mean reversion pullback towards the Cloud is a high-probability event. Gann Theory ⏳: The 45,500 level is a key psychological and mathematical resistance. A decisive break above could target the next Gann angle, but rejection here is a significant risk. 3. Critical Support & Resistance Levels: Resistance (R1): 45,500 - 45,600 (Key Psychological & Parabolic Resistance) 🚨 Resistance (R2): 46,000 (Projected Target if breakout occurs) Current Closing Price: ~45,411 Support (S1): 44,800 - 45,000 (Immediate Support & Prior Breakout Zone) ✅ Support (S2): 44,200 - 44,400 (Major Support - 38.2% Fib & 21-day EMA) 🛡️ Support (S3): 43,500 (50-day EMA & 50% Fib Retracement) 4. Indicator Consensus: RSI (14-period on 4H/D): Reading is well above 75 on both timeframes, signaling severely overbought conditions. 📛 This is the strongest sell signal the RSI can give and warns against new long positions. Bollinger Bands (4H) 📏: Price is consistently piercing the upper band. A reversion to at least the middle band (20-period SMA) is a matter of when, not if. Moving Averages: The bullish alignment is perfect but stretched. The EMA 21 on the 4H chart is critical short-term dynamic support. Volume & VWAP: Volume may be declining on the most recent highs (a bearish divergence), suggesting the rally is running on fumes. 📉 Price is extremely extended from any logical Anchored VWAP level. Trading Strategy & Forecast 🎯 A. Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 1H Charts): Bearish Scenario (Rejection Play) ⬇️: This is the highest probability play. Watch for bearish reversal candlestick patterns (e.g., Bearish Engulfing, Shooting Star 🌠, Doji) at or near the 45,500 resistance. Entry: On confirmation of rejection (e.g., a break below a small consolidation low). Stop Loss: Tight, above 45,600. Target: 45,000 (TP1), 44,800 (TP2). Bullish Scenario (Breakout Fade) ⚠️: Chasing a breakout here is high-risk. If price breaks above 45,500, it's safer to wait for a pullback to that level for a support re-test before considering a long. B. Swing Trading Strategy (4H - D Charts): Strategy: WAIT FOR A PULLBACK. The risk/reward for new long entries at this altitude is terrible. 🚫 Ideal Long Zones: Wait for a dip to 44,200 - 44,400 or even 43,500. This would provide a much healthier entry to ride the next potential leg up in the primary bull trend. ✅ Bearish Risk: A daily close below 44,000 would signal a deeper correction is underway, potentially targeting the 43,000 zone. Risk Management & Conclusion ⚠️ Key Risk Events: All US economic data (especially jobs and inflation reports) and Fed speaker comments are potential catalysts for a volatility explosion. 🔥 The market is priced for perfection. Position Sizing: Extreme caution is advised. This is a low-probability environment for new entries. Risk should be halved (e.g., 0.5% of account) due to the high volatility and unpredictability at peaks. Conclusion: The US30 is in a spectacular bull run but is in a High-Risk Zone. 🎲 This is a time for profit protection for existing longs, not for FOMO buying. 🚫📈 Swing traders must be patient for a pullback. Intraday traders can look for short-term reversal signals. The most likely outcome is a healthy and necessary correction to recharge for the next move. 📉 Overall Bias: 🟢 Bullish above 44,200 | 🔴 Caution/Correction likely between 45,000-45,600 For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:US30
by sunya
Dow Jones Under Pressure as Bond Yields SurgeUS30 – Dow Jones Update The Dow Jones erased 250 points as September began with soaring bond yields, dragging stocks lower after the long weekend. Nasdaq was the session’s biggest loser despite showing pre-market strength. Technical Outlook: The index reached our support target at 44,950, exactly as projected yesterday. For now, price is expected to consolidate within the 45,285 – 45,110 zone before the next move. 🔼 A confirmed 4H close above 45,285 would support a bullish continuation toward 45,460 → 45,680. 🔻 Conversely, sustained trade below 45,110 would re-open the bearish path toward 44,950 → 44,720. Key Levels: Pivot: 45,285 Support: 45,110 – 44,950 – 44,720 Resistance: 45,460 – 45,680 – 45,860
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
Dow Jones Overextended: Watching for an Institutional Unwind 📊 Dow Jones (US30) remains bullish 🟢, but in my view, it’s looking overextended 📈. Price has traded into a key level 🎯 where we could see a potential pullback, especially as we approach the end of the week 📅, when institutions and big money 💼 may begin unwinding positions. 👀 The play here is to watch for the high of the week/day ⏫ and look for a counter-trend reversal 🔄 that could drive price lower into the weekly close 📉. ⚠️ Keep in mind: Monday’s opening often creates a stop run 🛑 possibly offering a deeper pullback, giving us a double dose of liquidity grabs 💧. This sets the stage for a fairly deep retracement, which could present an opportunity to counter trend short if conditions align 🧩. 📌 My focus is on a break below the current range 🔓 as a trigger for potential entry. ⚠️ This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice 📚
PEPPERSTONE:US30Short
by fxtraderanthony
DOW JONES Buy opportunity on oversold 4H RSI.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 31 High and yesterday hit its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and rebounded. Every short-term break just below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) of this pattern since August 11, has been the most optimal buy opportunity. Technically as long as the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) holds, the medium-term trend remains bullish. Given also that the 4H RSI made an oversold rebound, first since August 04, we have a strong buy signal currently, which based on the previous Bullish Legs of the pattern, can rise by at least +2.67%. As a result, our short-term Target is 46100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
Dow Jones Falls from Record HighsOver the past two trading sessions, the Dow Jones index has declined by just over 0.7%, with selling pressure remaining constant. This move has been tied to the rebound in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which climbed to 4.27%, reducing the short-term appeal of equities. In addition, investors are awaiting the release of U.S. employment data at the end of the week, as the results could influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions. Uptrend Remains Intact Despite the recent pullback, the short-term declines have not been strong enough to break the uptrend that has remained in place for the past several months. This technical structure continues to be the most relevant in the short term. Unless selling pressure consolidates over more sessions, the upward trend is likely to remain dominant in the coming days. Technical Indicators RSI: although the RSI remains above the 50 level, it has begun to show a downward slope in the short term, which could indicate a shift in market momentum. If the line continues to decline, selling pressure could become more relevant in the sessions ahead. MACD: the MACD histogram continues to hover around the 0 line, indicating that the average strength of the moving averages remains in neutral territory. This highlights the lack of clear direction in the short term. Key Levels to Watch: 45,746 points – Relevant Resistance: corresponds to the Dow Jones record highs. A sustained breakout above this level could pave the way for a continuation of the uptrend. 45,023 points – Near-Term Support: coincides with recent lows and may act as a barrier for potential short-term pullbacks. 43,098 points – Critical Support: aligns with the 100- and 200-period simple moving averages. A move down to this zone could confirm a break in the uptrend and give way to a dominant bearish bias. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:US30
by FOREX.com
US30 Technical Analysis Report - Dow Jones Industrial Average# US30 Technical Analysis: Dow Jones Industrial Average Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Executive Summary Current Price: 45,572.6 (August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish with Fed Policy Tailwinds Primary Trend: Strong Uptrend with Consolidation Characteristics Key Catalyst: Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Signaling Potential September Rate Cuts The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to exhibit remarkable strength, trading near all-time highs following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole. The index benefits from renewed optimism around rate cuts while maintaining its traditional value-oriented composition that typically outperforms during monetary easing cycles. Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop Federal Reserve Policy Landscape Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech marked a significant shift in policy stance, with Powell indicating that conditions "may warrant" interest rate cuts. The Fed's dual mandate balance is shifting, with labor market risks now potentially outweighing inflation concerns. Markets are pricing in high probability of a September rate cut, with the current federal funds rate maintained at 4.25%-4.5%. Economic Environment Assessment The US economy has shown resilience despite policy uncertainties, though Powell warned of "unusual" labor market behavior that could become concerning. Recent inflation data has provided some reassurance to investors, with the consumer price index rising 2.7%, though tariff impacts remain a wildcard for future inflation trajectory. Dow Jones Composition Dynamics The Dow's 30 blue-chip constituents, including industrials, financials, and consumer staples, are well-positioned to benefit from lower interest rates. The index's price-weighted structure means high-priced stocks like Boeing, Goldman Sachs, and UnitedHealth Group carry significant influence on movements. Recent Performance Context The Dow has demonstrated exceptional strength, with recent sessions showing solid gains. The index reached fresh record highs during August, powered by strong performances from components like Home Depot. The index closed at 45,418.07 on August 26, showing consistent upward momentum throughout the month. Technical Analysis Framework Japanese Candlestick Analysis Weekly Pattern: Strong bullish marubozu candles indicating sustained buying pressure Daily Pattern: Small-bodied candles with long lower shadows showing buying on dips Intraday Patterns: Morning star formations frequent in 4H timeframe supporting bullish bias Volume Confirmation: Above-average volume on advances, lighter volume on pullbacks Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Wave Structure: Major Degree: Wave 5 of secular bull market showing powerful extension Intermediate Degree: Subwave 5 of major Wave 5 in progress with strong momentum Minor Degree: Currently in subwave 3 of intermediate Wave 5 Wave Characteristics: Impulse Structure: Clear five-wave advance from 2020 lows Extension Pattern: Wave 5 showing characteristics of extended fifth wave Target Analysis: Potential completion zone 47,000-48,500 based on Fibonacci projections Critical Support: Wave 4 correction low at 44,200-44,500 maintains bullish structure Harmonic Pattern Recognition Active Harmonic Formations: Bullish ABCD Pattern: Near completion with D point target 46,200-46,500 Potential Cypher: Long-term formation with completion zone 47,500-48,000 Three Drives Pattern: Current structure suggesting final drive higher Fibonacci Analysis: - 1.272 extension: 45,800 (approaching) - 1.414 extension: 46,400 (intermediate target) - 1.618 extension: 47,200 (major target) - 2.0 extension: 48,500 (extended target) Wyckoff Method Analysis Phase Assessment: Markup Phase C - Strong hands control Accumulation Evidence: - Successful test of support zones showing institutional buying - Sign of Strength (SOS) on Fed policy optimism - Last Point of Support (LPS) established around 44,500 - Backup to Edge of Creek (BUE) showing minimal selling pressure Markup Characteristics: - Sustained advances on increasing volume - Minor pullbacks on light volume - No climactic selling evident W.D. Gann Technical Analysis # Square of 9 Application Current Position: 45,572.6 = 213.48° on the Gann wheel Critical Resistance Levels: - 45,796 (214°) - immediate geometric resistance - 46,225 (215°) - intermediate resistance zone - 46,656 (216°) - major resistance confluence Key Support Levels: - 45,369 (213°) - immediate geometric support - 44,944 (212°) - strong support zone - 44,521 (211°) - major support level # Time Theory Application Critical Time Windows: - September 2-6: 45-degree time angle from recent high - September 20-23: Autumn equinox natural turning point - October 14-21: 90-degree time cycle completion - November 11-18: 144-degree major cycle # Price and Time Squaring Analysis Square Root of Price: √45,572.6 = 213.48 Next Significant Square Levels: - 214² = 45,796 (immediate resistance) - 215² = 46,225 (key target zone) - 216² = 46,656 (intermediate target) - 220² = 48,400 (major target) Support Square Levels: - 213² = 45,369 (immediate support) - 212² = 44,944 (strong support) - 210² = 44,100 (major support) # Gann Angle Analysis Primary Angles from Major Low: - 1x1 Angle: Providing dynamic support around 45,200 - 2x1 Angle: Resistance trend line near 46,000 - 1x2 Angle: Long-term support at 44,500 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Cloud Configuration: Tenkan-sen (9): 45,580 - Price slightly below, neutral to bullish Kijun-sen (26): 45,420 - Price above, confirming bullish bias Senkou Span A: 45,500 (cloud top) Senkou Span B: 44,800 (cloud bottom) Chikou Span: Above price action 26 periods ago (strongly bullish) Assessment: Price trading above bullish cloud with all components aligned for continued strength. Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicator Analysis 5-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) RSI(14): 58.2 - Bullish momentum without overbought conditions VWAP: 45,568 - Price trading slightly above VWAP showing strength Bollinger Bands: Middle band at 45,570, upper band at 45,620 Stochastic: 62.1 in bullish territory with room for advancement Volume: Steady participation with no unusual spikes Scalping Levels: Micro Resistance: 45,590, 45,615, 45,640 Micro Support: 45,545, 45,520, 45,495 15-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) MACD: Positive momentum with bullish crossover potential Williams %R: -38% showing healthy pullback from overbought Moving Averages: EMA(20) > SMA(20) confirming short-term strength Volume Profile: High volume node at 45,520-45,580 Key Trading Ranges: Bullish Zone: 45,550-45,580 (buying opportunities) Neutral Zone: 45,520-45,550 (range trading) Bearish Zone: Below 45,520 (short opportunities) 1-Hour Chart (Day Trading) RSI(14): 61.3 - Strong bullish momentum with room for extension VWAP: 45,485 providing dynamic support trend ADX(14): 34.2 indicating strong trend conditions Parabolic SAR: Below price at 45,420 (bullish signal intact) Day Trading Structure: Primary Resistance: 45,650-45,700 Secondary Resistance: 45,800-45,850 Primary Support: 45,450-45,500 Secondary Support: 45,350-45,400 4-Hour Chart (Swing Trading) RSI(14): 65.4 in overbought territory but sustainable in strong trends MACD: Strong positive momentum with histogram expanding Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band with band expansion indicating trend strength Ichimoku: All components bullishly aligned Swing Trading Analysis: Breakout Zone: Above 45,700 targets 46,000-46,200 Support Structure: 45,300-45,400 critical for trend continuation Stop Placement: Below 45,200 invalidates near-term bullish structure Daily Chart (Position Trading) RSI(14): 68.7 showing strong momentum but approaching overbought MACD: Robust positive momentum with room for extension Volume: Consistent above-average participation on advances Moving Averages: All major MAs aligned in bullish configuration Position Trading Framework: Trend Channel: Upper channel resistance near 46,500 Support Trend Line: Rising support around 44,800-45,000 Pattern Analysis: Ascending channel with room for upper channel test Weekly Chart (Long-term Analysis) RSI(14): 72.1 approaching overbought levels (caution warranted) MACD: Strong weekly momentum with positive histogram Long-term Trend: Powerful secular uptrend since 2009 lows intact Major Resistance: 47,000-47,500 based on measured moves Monthly Chart (Strategic Perspective) RSI(14): 74.3 significantly overbought (distribution risk increasing) Long-term Structure: Multi-decade bull market showing maturity signs Secular Targets: 50,000-52,000 based on long-term projections Major Support: 40,000-42,000 represents significant correction zone Comprehensive Support and Resistance Analysis Primary Support Structure 1. 45,450-45,500: VWAP and Kijun-sen confluence (immediate) 2. 45,350-45,400: Previous consolidation zone with volume 3. 45,200-45,250: Rising trend line and minor swing support 4. 45,000-45,100: Psychological level and major trend confluence 5. 44,800-44,900: Cloud bottom and structural support 6. 44,500-44,600: Elliott Wave support and institutional interest 7. 44,200-44,300: Major correction low and key trend defense Primary Resistance Structure 1. 45,650-45,700: Immediate intraday resistance and breakout level 2. 45,800-45,850: Short-term resistance and measured move target 3. 46,000-46,100: Major psychological level and Gann confluence 4. 46,200-46,300: Harmonic pattern completion zone 5. 46,500-46,600: Channel resistance and intermediate targets 6. 47,000-47,200: Major resistance zone and long-term targets 7. 47,500-48,000: Extended targets and secular resistance Weekly Trading Strategy (September 2-6, 2025) Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - US Markets Closed) Market Environment: US equity markets closed for Labor Day holiday Strategy Focus: Pre-positioning analysis for Tuesday's open International Impact: Monitor global markets for overnight developments Pre-Market Preparation: Gap Analysis: Assess any gap formation from Friday's close Overnight News: Monitor for Fed communications or economic releases Global Sentiment: Track international markets for risk appetite cues Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Environment: Return from holiday with potential catch-up volatility Primary Strategy: Trend continuation with careful gap management Volatility Expectation: Above normal due to holiday return dynamics Intraday Trading Strategy: Gap Scenarios: Gap Up: Above 45,600 suggests continued strength Gap Down: Below 45,500 may offer buying opportunity No Gap: Normal trading within established range Long Setup (Primary): 45,520-45,550 - Stop Loss: 45,480 - Target 1: 45,620 (1:2 R/R) - Target 2: 45,700 (1:3.5 R/R) Short Setup (Secondary): 45,680-45,720 - Stop Loss: 45,750 - Target 1: 45,600 (1:1 R/R) - Target 2: 45,520 (1:2.3 R/R) Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Environment: Mid-week momentum with potential economic data Primary Strategy: Breakout preparation with volume confirmation Focus: Fed speakers and economic indicators impact Trading Approach: Bullish Breakout: Above 45,750 with volume - Entry: 45,760-45,780 - Stop: 45,700 - Targets: 45,850, 45,950, 46,050 Range Trading: Within 45,500-45,700 - Long: 45,520-45,540, Target: 45,650-45,680 - Short: 45,670-45,690, Target: 45,550-45,580 Risk Considerations: Reduce position sizes if range-bound continues Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Environment: High-impact day with jobs data potential Primary Strategy: Economic data trading with technical confirmation Key Factor: Employment data ahead of Friday's NFP Economic Data Strategy: Strong Employment: May delay Fed cuts, potential negative Weak Employment: Supports Fed cut narrative, likely positive Mixed Data: Technical levels become primary focus Technical Breakout Setup: Major Breakout: Above 46,000 - Volume Required: 150% of 20-day average - Initial Target: 46,200-46,300 - Extended Target: 46,500-46,600 - Stop Loss: 45,850 Breakdown Scenario: Below 45,400 - Target: 45,200-45,100 - Extended: 45,000-44,900 - Stop Loss: 45,500 Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Environment: Non-Farm Payrolls day with weekly close focus Primary Strategy: News trading with weekly positioning Critical Importance: NFP data impact on Fed policy expectations NFP Trading Strategy: Strong NFP (>200K): - Potential negative for rate cut hopes - Technical resistance becomes more significant - Focus on short opportunities near 46,000 Weak NFP (<150K): - Strengthens rate cut case - Bullish breakout potential increases - Target 46,200-46,500 on strength In-Line NFP (150-200K): - Maintains current Fed expectations - Technical levels drive trading Weekly Close Analysis: Bullish Close: Above 45,700 sets up next week advance Neutral Close: 45,400-45,700 maintains current structure Bearish Close: Below 45,400 suggests correction risk Advanced Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Matrix Risk Allocation by Strategy: 5M Scalping: 0.3-0.5% of capital per trade 15M Scalping: 0.5-0.8% of capital per trade 1H Day Trading: 1-1.5% of capital per trade 4H Swing Trading: 2-3% of capital per trade Daily Position Trading: 3-4% of capital per trade Dynamic Stop Loss Framework Volatility-Based Stops: Current ATR: ~180 points daily average Low Volatility: Stops at 120-150 points Normal Volatility: Stops at 180-220 points High Volatility: Stops at 250-300 points Timeframe-Specific Stops: 5-Minute Charts: 60-80 points maximum 15-Minute Charts: 100-140 points maximum 1-Hour Charts: 180-250 points maximum 4-Hour Charts: 350-450 points maximum Daily Charts: 600-800 points maximum Profit-Taking Methodology Systematic Profit Distribution: Target 1 (40%): 1:1.5 Risk/Reward ratio Target 2 (35%): 1:2.5 Risk/Reward ratio Target 3 (25%): 1:4+ Risk/Reward ratio Trailing Stops: Implement after Target 2 achievement Portfolio Risk Controls Maximum Exposure Limits: Total Account Risk: 6% maximum across all positions Single Trade Risk: 4% maximum concentration Sector Concentration: 50% maximum in related trades Daily Loss Limit: 3% account drawdown triggers review Geopolitical and Economic Risk Assessment Federal Reserve Policy Implications September FOMC (17-18): High probability of 25bp cut based on Powell's signals Policy Trajectory: Market expectations for 2-3 cuts through Q4 2025 Communication Risk: Any hawkish surprises could trigger significant correction Independence Concerns: Trump administration pressure on Fed policy creates uncertainty Economic Data Dependencies Labor Market Dynamics: Powell's noted "unusual" behavior requires close monitoring Inflation Trajectory: Tariff impacts creating uncertainty for price stability GDP Resilience: Economy showing strength but policy impacts unclear Consumer Health: Holiday spending season critical for Q4 performance Political and Policy Risks Tariff Implementation: Broad tariff policies could spike inflation and delay cuts Trade Relations: China trade dynamics affecting multinational Dow components Fiscal Policy: Government spending and tax policies impacting corporate earnings Regulatory Environment: Industry-specific regulations affecting key sectors Global Economic Factors International Growth: Global slowdown impacts for multinational corporations Currency Dynamics: Dollar strength/weakness affecting overseas earnings Commodity Prices: Input cost inflation affecting manufacturing components Geopolitical Tensions: Regional conflicts creating safe-haven demand for US assets Sectoral Analysis and Dow Components Sector Weight Distribution Industrials (20%): Boeing, Caterpillar, 3M leading weight Financials (18%): Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, American Express Technology (15%): Microsoft, Apple, Intel Healthcare (12%): UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson, Merck Consumer (15%): Home Depot, McDonald's, Nike Other (20%): Utilities, materials, energy components Rate Cut Beneficiaries High Sensitivity Sectors: 1. Financials: Yield curve steepening benefits net interest margins 2. Real Estate (REITs): Lower rates increase property valuations 3. Utilities: Bond proxy sectors benefit from rate environment 4. Consumer Discretionary: Lower borrowing costs boost spending Potential Underperformers Rate Cut Challenges: 1. Insurance: Lower investment yields pressure profitability 2. Banks: Net interest margin compression risks 3. Dollar-Sensitive: Strong international exposure may face currency headwinds Component-Specific Analysis Key Drivers: Boeing: Recovery story and rate environment benefits Goldman Sachs: Trading revenue and investment banking activity Home Depot: Housing sector sensitivity to interest rates Apple: Consumer spending and international exposure Advanced Technical Patterns and Setups Ichimoku Advanced Strategies Cloud Breakout Setup: - Price above cloud with expanding bands - Tenkan above Kijun with widening gap - Chikou Span clearing resistance - Volume confirmation on breakouts Kumo Twist Analysis: - Future cloud turning bullish through Q4 2025 - Cloud thickness indicating strong trend support - Senkou Span crossovers providing early signals Gann-Based Trading Systems Square of 9 Implementation: Long Trades: Buy at 212° (44,944) targeting 215° (46,225) Short Trades: Sell at 216° (46,656) targeting 213° (45,369) Breakout Trades: Above 215° targets 220° (48,400) Time and Price Confluence: - Major resistance at time/price squares - Natural reversal zones at geometric intersections - Seasonal time cycles confirming geometric levels Wyckoff Accumulation/Distribution Analysis Markup Phase Characteristics: Sign of Strength: Fed policy optimism driving advances Last Point of Support: 44,500 zone established Backup to Edge of Creek: Minimal selling pressure evident Secondary Test: Any pullback to 45,200 should hold Distribution Warning Signs: Climactic Volume: Heavy selling on any approach to 47,500 Weakness Signs: Inability to hold gains on positive news Phase A Risk: Sharp reversal from major resistance levels Market Microstructure and Execution High-Frequency Trading Impact Algorithm Concentration Zones: 45,000 Level: Major HFT support algorithm activity 46,000 Level: Significant resistance algorithm presence Round Numbers: Enhanced activity at 500-point intervals Optimal Execution Timing: 9:30-10:00 EST: Opening volatility and opportunity 10:30-11:00 EST: Post-opening continuation patterns 14:00-14:30 EST: European close overlap effects 15:30-16:00 EST: Final hour institutional positioning Liquidity Analysis High Liquidity Zones: 45,400-45,700 with tight bid/ask spreads Reduced Liquidity: Above 46,500 requiring careful position sizing After-Hours Considerations: Limited liquidity requiring smaller sizes Order Flow Characteristics Institutional Patterns: Accumulation Evidence: Large block buying 45,200-45,500 Distribution Monitoring: Watch for heavy selling above 46,200 Momentum Algorithms: Active participation on breakout moves Technology Integration and Trading Infrastructure Essential Trading Platforms 1. TradingView: Advanced Dow Jones charting and technical analysis 2. Interactive Brokers: Professional execution and margin capabilities 3. E*TRADE: Retail-friendly interface with advanced tools 4. Charles Schwab: Commission-free trading with research integration Critical Alert Configuration Price-Based Alerts: Breakout Levels: 45,750 (bullish), 45,400 (bearish) Psychological Levels: 46,000, 46,500, 47,000 Gann Squares: 44,944, 46,225, 46,656 Volume-Based Monitoring: Unusual Volume: >150% of 20-day average Block Trades: >$20M institutional transactions Index Rebalancing: Quarterly component changes News and Event Alerts: Fed Communications: FOMC members speeches and interviews Economic Releases: Employment, inflation, GDP data Component Earnings: Major Dow constituent results Policy Announcements: Trade, fiscal, regulatory changes Advanced Analysis Integration Options Market Analysis: Monitor Dow options for unusual activity and sentiment Futures Market Positioning: Track YM futures for institutional positioning ETF Flow Analysis: Monitor DIA and other Dow ETFs for flow patterns Cross-Market Correlation: Track relationships with bonds, commodities, currencies Calendar and Seasonal Considerations September Seasonality Historically challenging month for equities, though current Fed policy support may override seasonal weakness. Dow's defensive characteristics may provide relative outperformance during seasonal stress periods. Federal Reserve Timeline September 17-18: FOMC Meeting with high cut probability November 6-7: Next FOMC Meeting December 17-18: Final 2025 FOMC Meeting with year-end implications Earnings Calendar Impact Q3 2025 Reporting Season: October-November critical for Dow components Key Reporters: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Boeing, Apple reporting schedules Guidance Analysis: Management commentary on rate environment benefits Holiday and Event Calendar Labor Day (Sep 2): US markets closed Columbus Day (Oct 14): Bond markets closed, equity markets open Election Considerations: Political developments affecting policy expectations Year-End Positioning: Institutional rebalancing effects in Q4 Conclusion and Strategic Outlook The Dow Jones Industrial Average stands at a pivotal moment, benefiting from Fed Chair Powell's dovish pivot while trading at historically elevated levels. The index's composition of blue-chip, dividend-paying companies positions it well for a potential rate-cutting cycle, though elevated valuations require careful risk management. Strategic Investment Themes: 1. Fed Policy Tailwind: Rate cutting cycle benefiting rate-sensitive components 2. Value vs Growth: Dow's value orientation may outperform in rate cut environment 3. Dividend Aristocrats: Quality dividend payers attractive in lower rate environment 4. Economic Resilience: Defensive characteristics providing downside protection Trading Strategy Priorities: Trend Following: Primary bias remains bullish with Fed support Breakout Trading: Monitor 46,000 level for significant upside potential Risk Management: Elevated levels require disciplined position sizing Component Selection: Focus on rate-sensitive sectors for maximum benefit Medium-Term Outlook (3-6 months): Technical and fundamental analysis converges on a constructive outlook for the Dow through Q4 2025. The combination of Fed accommodation, resilient economic data, and strong corporate balance sheets supports advancement toward 47,000-48,000 targets, though any hawkish Fed surprises or geopolitical shocks could trigger corrections to 44,000-44,500 support. Risk Management Focus: Overbought Conditions: Monthly RSI above 74 suggests caution at higher levels Policy Risk: Fed policy error or hawkish surprise major downside risk Valuation Concerns: Historical high levels warrant selective positioning Correlation Risk: High correlation with broader market during stress periods Long-Term Strategic Considerations: The secular bull market remains intact, supported by American economic dynamism and corporate innovation. However, demographic trends, debt levels, and policy uncertainty create longer-term challenges requiring ongoing assessment and strategy adjustment. Traders and investors should maintain flexibility while capitalizing on the current favorable environment, with particular attention to the Fed policy trajectory and its impact on the interest rate-sensitive components that comprise significant portions of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. --- *This comprehensive analysis integrates multiple technical methodologies with current fundamental drivers affecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average. All recommendations should be implemented within individual risk tolerance parameters and adapted to evolving market conditions. The blue-chip nature of Dow components provides some defensive characteristics, though elevated levels require enhanced risk awareness.* --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade --- Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:US30
by sunya
DOW JONES assisted by the 4H MA50 this Bullish Leg targets 47200Dow Jones (DJI) has turned its 4H MA50 (red trend-line) into Support and following the August 01 (Higher Low) bottom on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it is extending the new Bullish Leg of the 4-month Channel Up. With the 1D RSI also bouncing on its medium-term Support, this is a strong short-term buy signal. The previous two Bullish Legs both rose by a little over +9.00%. This gives us a 47200 Target on the short-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US30Long
by TradingShot
2
US30 LongUS30: New ATH Prints – Waiting for Weekly Candle Retracement The US30 has surged to fresh all-time highs (ATH), closing last week with a strong bullish weekly momentum candle. This kind of aggressive move often sees follow-through, but smart money typically waits for a retracement to optimize entries. Plan & Levels: The area around $45,300 stands out as a potential buying zone, aligning with expected dollar weakness and a key Fibonacci retracement level of the prior weekly push. Traders will watch for price to pull back toward this zone and confirm entries using lower timeframe candlestick patterns and confluence with Fibonacci support. Technical Context: Momentum remains firmly bullish, with higher highs and strong breadth across industrial and tech components supporting the rally. A controlled retracement would provide fresh liquidity for continuation and could set the stage for another leg higher toward new records. Trading Plan: Wait for a retracement toward $45,300 to build a long position. Validate entries using Fibonacci levels and bullish reversal candles on 4H or lower charts. Maintain disciplined risk management, as overextended markets can show sharp pullbacks before continuation.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by IndependentTradingUniversity