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DOW on the 4h chart reached the recent low over a weekly support.
The price is now turning for a retracement nd a test of the 0.5 Fibonacci level can be seen.
How can i approach this scenario?
The overall scenario remain bearish so i will wait for a test of the 0.5 or the 0.618 where i will wait a new possible sign of inversion for a short order
On H4, with the price moving below the Ichimoku cloud and descending trendline, we have a bearish bias.
We are looking for a pullback sell entry at 30105.42 where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Also there is a market gap that looks good to be filled near there. Stop loss will be at 30883.99 where the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci lines are. Take profit will be at 28456.52...
On the H4 chart, prices are moving in a descending manner hence we are bullish biased. To add to this bias, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bear market. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 30438.12 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. We can take the market gap close by at 30047.79 into consideration for the confluence of this sell....
The S&P 500 is still in bear-mode, though it appears to have found some support at 3645 as we reported yesterday. We do appear to be seeing some meager consolidation with a narrow range forming between this lower bound and 3714. A red triangle on this level confirms strong resistance. The Kovach OBV does appear to be trekking upward, which may indicate that a...
The S&P 500 has been slammed by recession fears, a hawkish Fed, pervasive risk-off themes in the news, and a potentially disastrous hurricane barreling toward the gulf of Mexico (oil refinery hub) and Florida. We have completely given up the 3700's, and are deep into the 3600's with 3645 providing support at the moment. The Kovach OBV is hugging lows and appears...
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 25 Week
Dow gave out presents last week with a good short opportunity.
Broadening downward wedge = demand returning.
Watch 29639 = CRITICAL SUPPORT.
1) Long if 29639 / lower trend line support holds
2) Short if price breaks down 29639 on high volume and returns
to test on lower volume.
3) Short on rejection of...
This past week's trading was a good refresher course on what bear markets actually trade like. As opposed to dips during bull runs that suck to short and aren't so scary to go long on because price action continually rips back and makes highs, bear markets will take out a consecutive series of downside lows while terminating virtually each and every rally.
I've made many comparisons of Dow Jones' (DJI) 2022 Bearish Price Action with past Bear Cycles but being near closing its 3rd straight red 1W (weekly) candle since the August 15 rejection on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it is time to update it.
As you see, this is a comparison of Dow's 2021/2022 chart against 2007/2008. The dynamic factor is WTI Oil (black...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is currently pulling-back as yesterday's rebound has failed so far to break the Channel's median. That is the Channel Down, the dominant pattern, that the index has been trading in since the August 16 High. As you see that middle trend-line has been holding a key role within this pattern.
The current price action resembles...
Based on fundamentals, economics, economic data, geopolitics, Fed QT. It'll be a zig zag on the way down. S&P completed a 50% retracement during this last 5-week rally. The trend seems to have reversed with a resumption in selling that started in Nov 2021, accelerated in Jan 2022, with a recovery in June to Mid August.
Since the middle of August, Dow Jones is trading in a minor bearish trend.
The price keeps setting new lower lows and lower highs.
This week, the price set a new lower low lower close again.
I believe that it will push the price lower.
Next support on focus - 30400
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
In 1872 George Tritch documented a strategy for when to Buy and Sell stocks over the next 200 years.
While Buy and Hold performed better, it is pretty impressive that a strategy documented almost 150 years ago had a 91% hit rate.
The strategy also identified the (near) peaks of major crashes including 1929, 1999, 2007 and 2020.
Two key learnings:
1. Buy and...
This simple RSI-MA long/short algorithm beats the Dow by a FREAKING HUGE margin over the past century (excluding dividends and trading costs).
The algorithm uses a fast SMA of the RSI as a buy/cover signal and a slow SMA of the RSI as a sell/short signal.
Backtest period = 09/17/1916 - 11/02/2015
DJIA = 98 --> 17,830 = +18,094% = 5.38% CAGR
Algorithm = net...
The Dow Jones Index (DJI) closed yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as it is extending the rebound we called on our previous analysis:
As you see, that rebound came exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 17 Low and was the second (July 14 the first) time it held, making it the short-term Support. What Dow achieved with that...