If this is the Elliott 5th wave, and diagonal as it seen, then a long period of bearish trend is just begin.
If it breaks the channel, the lower side of the channel will be seen in a very short time and it will be the first target (wave A)
DOW has peaked out and the down move has started. Based on Elliott Wave Analysis the ending diagonal has completed 5 moves after which a big correction is expected, giving the confirmation is the Candle stick signal patterns a Bearish Shooting star as well as Evening Star. Expect market to correct till 15500 as 1st Target and then beyond. Looking at Fibonacci...
On the one hand - we have the triple top, on the other hand - we are waiting for the end of the impulse and the breakout from consolidation. The market, as usual, will go its own way.
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Here is my logic:
1. Fundamentals don't support record highs. High stock prices don't represent real economic activity. Unemployment. situation still not pre-crises levels yet prices are way above that.
2. Oil showing lack of demand.
3. US dollar becoming more expensive. End of low exchange rate.
4. China weakening as well as imports.
5. End of easy money and fed...
Of course, the projected future waves are pure speculation and I'm not expecting any patterns to repeat themselves exactly. There do exist, however, 7-year and 13-year cycles in the market that deserve consideration and further research, considering the similarities I believe to be showing quite clearly in this comparison. I have made an effort to simplify this...
Dow Jones, like the S&P, are destined to rise before the long-awaited correction.
Judging by the volume of the past month or so, large bets have been placed on the long side. As for the past trading day, the large volume bar was a pseudo-indecision bar.
I'll be on the sidelines for right now, as I would have entered at the completion of the Gartley that formed.
In 2008, the IWM completed a head and shoulders top two months before the SPY and DIA did, effectively predicting the coming crash in the SPY. Is the same happening today?
I will still wait conservatively for monthly and weekly time-frames to confirm any bearish scenario. Look at the clearcut price action 2007 - 2008 and compare this to now. We have all the time in the world, picking tops is for amateurs....:-)
Friends,
A very short note here regarding the Dow Composite Index.
Using proprietary patterns, an unusually narrow potential zone of reversal is defined. All of these can be verified by major or minor Fibonacci levels as well.
Both mean and average are defined as well. By reverse engineering a Fib-based retracement at the 38.2 significant level, this would...
Friends,
About 5 months ago (October 30th, 2013), I offered a moderate probability target at 5786.81. As of this this month, target got hit dead-on.
- Here:
More recently, I added a lesser probability target, based on momental line/channel supports and predictive analysis result.
- Here:
Now that the market has rolled down from the primary target, there...
