CosmicDust

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Joined 61803398875
Markets Allocation
71 % stocks 13 % indices 1 % forex 15 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPY 14% | 132 IWM 10% | 98 GDX 8% | 78 TLT 6% | 55
CosmicDust CosmicDust EWZ, W,
EWZ: EWZ weekly - not looking good
27 0 6
EWZ, W
EWZ weekly - not looking good

So far uncertain if it is just technical based selling or any fundamental reasons. It is a sell once it breaks 40 weeks MA (which is 200 days MA).

CosmicDust CosmicDust ASHR, M,
ASHR: ASHR monthly - needs to go above $25.88
12 0 4
ASHR, M
ASHR monthly - needs to go above $25.88

ASHR (China CSI 300 index) has been steadily rising since 2016 low. MACD is now positive, price is above 10 month MA. Need it to take out Nov. 2016 interim high to confirm the trend change. IF that ever happens, I would expect a price spike.

CosmicDust CosmicDust TLT, W,
TLT: TLT weekly - short term bullish
23 0 5
TLT, W
TLT weekly - short term bullish

TLT had double bottom and now broke out. First hurdle is 40 weeks MA (around $126) and if that is cleared it can possibly reach $130 level.

CosmicDust CosmicDust VIX, M,
VIX: VIX monthly - the weird chart of vix
35 1 4
VIX, M
VIX monthly - the weird chart of vix

Like the period of 1996 to 1997, market can go higher together with vix. Like the period of 2007 to 2008, market can go lower with increasing volatility. Current period? anyone's guess.

CosmicDust CosmicDust XAUUSD/SPY, M,
XAUUSD/SPY: Gold vs. SPY monthly - make it or break it time.
63 0 5
XAUUSD/SPY, M
Gold vs. SPY monthly - make it or break it time.

Technical setup looks similar to the 2000. If breaks out, might be an indicator to overweight precious metal related assets (and underweight US equities in general).

CosmicDust CosmicDust EEM/SPY, M,
EEM/SPY: EEM/SPY breaking out
26 0 6
EEM/SPY, M
EEM/SPY breaking out

The ratio is breaking out and is above 10 month MA. 10 month MA itself is turning. Probably an indication emerging market should be overweighted gradually.

CosmicDust CosmicDust EURUSD, M,
EURUSD: EURUSD monthly - likely the bottom is in
61 0 8
EURUSD, M
EURUSD monthly - likely the bottom is in

Technicals are similar to 2001 - 2002, with diverged RSI and MACD. Probably a strong buy if it breaks out and price goes above 10 month MA.

CosmicDust CosmicDust GREK, M,
GREK: GREK monthly - looks better and better
11 0 5
GREK, M
GREK monthly - looks better and better

GREK has been consolidating for more than a year since Feb 2016 low and is most likely building a base. IMO, it is a buy once closing above $8.41 (May 2016 high).

CosmicDust CosmicDust TBT, M,
TBT: TBT monthly - re-testing breakout - 2/15/2017
47 2 7
TBT, M
TBT monthly - re-testing breakout - 2/15/2017

TBT had a long term breakout last November. Looks like it is working on a re-test. A close about $43 might be a game changer (to confirm the death of bond bull market). It is still too early to make the call.

CosmicDust CosmicDust FXI, W,
FXI: FXI weekly - head and shoulders breakout - 2/15/2017
52 0 8
FXI, W
FXI weekly - head and shoulders breakout - 2/15/2017

looks like a classical head and shoulders breakout. 40 weeks MA is pointing up. RSI and MACD all look good. In the past it had several breakouts that gained anywhere from 10 to 40 percent.

CosmicDust CosmicDust EWZ, W,
EWZ: EWZ weekly - breakout will be bullish - 2/5/2017
31 0 9
EWZ, W
EWZ weekly - breakout will be bullish - 2/5/2017

Call it head and shoulders, or cup and handle. If it manages to break out (again), momentum should be able to carry it all the way to $50 area.

CosmicDust CosmicDust SPY, M,
SPY: SPY monthly - do not like what I see - 1/17/2017
92 1 5
SPY, M
SPY monthly - do not like what I see - 1/17/2017

My reading is that a correction (and maybe a bear market, or even worse) is approaching, as the chart simple has already been in its extreme. Might not be time to sell just yet but not a good time to buy when a chart looks like this.

CosmicDust CosmicDust DXY, M,
DXY: DXY monthly - at a reflection point - 1/17/2017
30 0 4
DXY, M
DXY monthly - at a reflection point - 1/17/2017

Current chart pattern looks very similar to 06/1999. Basically a breakout may lead to 120 level and a breakdown may lead to 85 level. So we will have to look at it carefully in the first quarter, as it will affect all asset classes. So far the odd is still in favor of a breakout (until all supports break down, if ever).

CosmicDust CosmicDust TYX, W,
TYX: TYX weekly - might be targeting 2.7 - 1/13/2017
23 0 3
TYX, W
TYX weekly - might be targeting 2.7 - 1/13/2017

Overall trend is bullish, but a correction from overbought to 40 week MA is very likely. Note both MACD and RSI are facing long term resistance. Might be a good 2 to 4 months of window for global stocks, commodities and precious metal, before the bullish trend resumes (if it can).

CosmicDust CosmicDust TLT, W,
TLT: TLT weekly - bouncing on major support - 1/4/2017
55 0 6
TLT, W
TLT weekly - bouncing on major support - 1/4/2017

Both RSI and MACD are on extreme oversold condition. I think it is a buy with a stop around $117.

CosmicDust CosmicDust SPY, W,
SPY: SPY weekly - major rising wedge exhausting - 1/4/2017
137 0 9
SPY, W
SPY weekly - major rising wedge exhausting - 1/4/2017

Last time the wedge exhausted, SPY dropped about 12%. It is at it again. So be prepared (buy protection). I fear when everyone cheers.

CosmicDust CosmicDust EWZ, W,
EWZ: EWZ weekly - buy breakout - 1/4/2017
35 1 7
EWZ, W
EWZ weekly - buy breakout - 1/4/2017

EWZ bounced up from 40 week MA, coincidental with RSI rising channel support. Wait for a breakout (and a positive MACD) for buy confirmation.

CosmicDust CosmicDust GREK, W,
GREK: GREK weekly - base has been built - 1/4/2017
26 0 8
GREK, W
GREK weekly - base has been built - 1/4/2017

It has been building a solid base... Buy breakout at about $8.50, with stop at about $7.50

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