Just want to start the new year with some positive tune: if history of 1942 - 1966 and 1982 - 1999 repeats, the current market could still have 10 more years of gains ahead and could triple the current price!
If past cases work again, a 6 months to 12 months 15% to 30% rally can be expected. Quite likely bottom is forming, and thus good time to scale in. What can go wrong? price dips below 40 week moving average and back in to the downward wedge, that would be the signal to bail.
MACD has been negative for the past 2 months, RSI has been below long term trend line for the past 2 months, and price has been below 10 month moving average for the past 2 months. Similar situation in 2000, 2008, and 2015 told us the chance things go bad is HIGH. 2015 case told us we can get back into the market once there is a meaningful breakout together with ...
Good chance short term bottom is in. Not sure how strong it can rebound but a stop at $165 is a good idea. If it fails to challenge all time high and goes back down from a lower high, chance is good QQQ top is in, and mindset has to change to short rally from buy dip.
Price and RSI divergence is concerning but no sell signal on monthly chart. To sell I need a price pullback below 10 month MA, a 6 month MA and 10 month MA cross, and a much weaker RSI (close or below 50) and a negative MACD.
The chart suggests dollar is bottoming short term. I would accumulate at this level with a stop around $23. A strengthened dollar in the second half of the year would indicate a stronger economy, higher rate and stronger stock market driven by higher earnings/profits.
DoubleLine Gundlach said this year is the year of commodities. I took a look at DJP it indeed looks very attractive. RSI is above 50, MACD is positive and price is above 10 month MA and the MA itself is flat to turning up! I think it is a buy if it can close above $25.50 on a monthly basis.
Horrible market today but has not triggerred my sell signal just yet. My sell signal: price below 10M MA and lost red support line and 3/5 Month EMA crossed, RSI and MACD lost red supports.
Note the callouts on the chart are the sell/buy reference points based on 3/5 month EMA cross signal only.
RSI is around 50, MACD is still negative. The price itself is in the twilight zone but it will have to break out or break down. Need to watch this closely as it has definite implication for asset allocation.