Overall, GBTC is still weak but I think a counter-trend rally might be in the store. Technically, price and RSI are diverging which is a positive sign, MACD also turned positive (on the daily chart). I am targeting $41.6 with a loss stop at $29.5. So I risk roughly 10% for a potential gain of 30%.
Given bitcoin had 2 instances of dropping more than 80% in its history, I think it might be in its 3rd of such big move. A simple extrapolation indicates it might bottom around April 2022 with a price tag $12,000.
People see it differently and have different views and that is more than healthy and OK. Definitely I can be wrong but I personally will not touch...
TLT chart pattern suggested it might be bottomed and ready for 40% gain (as Dec 2013 and Feb 2017). 10% draw down is possible, but given the potential gain the risk is worthy to take. So risk 10% loss for potential 40% gain.
On a weekly close basis, it made a higher low and a higher high, pretty typical trend changing indication. Though a bit early but looks promising. RSI is 49.96, MACD is positive. Weekly volume is decent.
This is a correlation study to TLT (see )
TLT in 2012 and 2016 was down around 22% and in the same time frames SPY was up 40+ %. If history repeats, SPY could rise to $400 level around Feb 2022. That would be about 20% gain from today's level (as of 8/15/2020), not...
XLF had a double breakout last Friday (Aug 7 2020) with above average volume . RSI is strong but MACD is negative for now. The plan is to buy it around this level with a stop around $24. Expect to hold it for about a month with $3 to $7 gain per share if it goes well.
Looks like it is about to break out and go above 50 DMA. The plan is to buy the breakout, and target $5 to $10 gain a share in about 2 weeks. Set a stop around $14.50 and be comfortable with about $2 loss a share if the trade did not go as expected. Overall feeling is the trade is favorable once breaking out, as MACD is above 0 and RSI is above 50.
RSI is in bullish zone, MACD is positive. Much more room to the upside (20% ~ 60%) but limited room to the downside (10% ~ 15%) so from risk/award perspective, it is attractive. I think it might spike fast from this level. IMHO it is a strong buy but do not forget a stop to shield down side risk.