About meI didnt know what I was doing, so I went to wall street, and then learned they didnt know either. Ive been a stock broker, commodity broker, and trader. The best edge is knowledge and being able to do the math yourself. true investing is hard to see.
Things will slow down likely this year end as it usually does. liquidity and volatility tend to slow down as holiday volumes and activity slow down.
Given where the equity indexes are, Im happy taking some bear call spreads on against some of the long bargains I hold. Theres a good chance we pull back and retest support.
Crude oil and gasoline have been...
Silver has been underwhelming during these times of inflation and money excess. It could be setting up for a breakout higher after its consolidated for so long since 2020 spike near 30 dollars per ounce.
Historically, high rates have hurt and dampened metals as rates pull away capital from commodities. But with the effects of higher prices and costs, will higher...
Paypal is expected to earn 4.95 eps this year 2023 and yet the stock is lagging the sp500. If risk avoidance returns in the sp500, it is possible that paypal underperforms further if the paypal downtrend continues.
However, wouldnt that be a value buying opportunity? if paypal reaches the 50 level and paypal continues to grow its earnings power (as analysts...
Ever since 2008, the world shifted more to the world of collateral and distrust, after the world of unsecured collapsed.
Treasuries are dollars are in the future. As long as uncertainty remains high (or increases) there will be a place for government loans. Treasuries yielding near 5% on most maturities is "good enough" when compared to the historical 7% ish...
watching cart post IPO.
came out at 30, hit 40s, and fizzled.
Now CART sports a new 5% earnings yield, and so does the sp500.
CART is expecting 15% growth, while sp only hints 10% (best case).
here are analyst earnings expectations.
2023 2028 eps
1.24 1.56 1.91 2.27 2.62 2.95
if 2028 eps of 2.95 per share comes true, what...
Upwork is at fair value now, cheap for next year, and potential could grow to a 50-100$ stock over 5 years.
Upwork is a freelancer marketplace and recently partnered with Open ai (chat GPT) to provide enterprises access to ai freelance experts and learning.
Better value then megacaps:
Upwork roughly has a earnings yield of 3% plus for this year 2023, which is...
ARM made .54 eps in 2022 and .51 eps in 2023. at 51 cents eps, its 124 PE.
Revenue per share current is 2.60 revenue per share, giving a price to sales over 20 PS.
Its unclear if ARM is growing sales and earnings at a rate that justifies the current premium.
Possible multiples examples:
if pe goes to:
20pe x .51 = 10.20
30pe x .51 =15.30
40pe x .51= 20.40
Found another potential deep value play trading below balance sheet tangible book value.
When the market is relatively unattractive, I like to look for deep value stocks now while I wait for better value in growth stocks and/or wait for bear spreads to work ;-) .
Deep value, or cigar butts, or net net stocks, or balance sheet plays are companies that have...
ACB along with other cannabis stocks are up this month on news that marijuana may be reduced down to a lower schedule level.
News headline : "On Tuesday, August 29, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in a historic move officially recommended cannabis' controlled substance classification be changed from Schedule I to Schedule III ".
Green Thumb is in most of the cannabis etfs and top of the list. Its one of the only cannabis stocks that is profitable now and has growth potential at a reasonable value.
If down trend continues for 2023, I am interesting in seeing how low it goes and then reviewing its future prospects.
2025, numbers according to anaylsts, are really when Green Thumb will...
Vix is price of call and put 'at the money" annualized.
the current vix yield cut in have gives us an estimate of downside premium put sellers collect and buyers are paying. its near 8%. its probably less because there is a slight upward skew.
In the last 20 years, there have been times when vix has spiked very high and this "put yield" has been roughly 40% for...
Palantir stock has been volatile and yet the business cashflows havent moved very much this year. The multiple on future values is what makes stocks volatile.
The discount rate or hurdle rate is what investors use to price investments appropriately. If a s tock trades too high compared to its realistic future business values, investors may seek other opportunities.
Dollar index show rise in currencies like swiss franc. Every bull run in gold and silver has been linked with a rise in swiss franc since they used to have large gold holding.
If dollar persists lower and sticky inflation and sticky rates, does that mean that the market is pricing in more debt and money printing? Is the break out in swiss franc marking a green...
SPX/SPY future price can be calculated by take earnings and compounding out in time using analyst growth projections. You can do this for any stock. Spx in 5 years maybe 1.6x times higher which is approximately a 5-6% annual return.
Historically speaking, sp500 yields 7% to 10% so current prices are promising wimpy returns according to analysts.
And if the...