Its time to care about recession and reality, even if we don't..Time to send the market into south direction. Why?
1) Recession marks in world Economy
2) No Trade Deal China - US
3) Massive overbought divergence H4-D1
4) Earnings Q4 2019 are low fitted
5) Markets bubbling up
Target 1: 26.350
Target 2: 25.640
Time Nov-Dez 2019
Dow30
DOW (DJI) rejected at 27K again, market topping outThe winter is coming. As everyone can see the index is failing at making higher highs, the dips are shallow, but the conviction is not there, there is just no room to rally. We reached the TOP. RSI showing weakness in the bull market.
Expecting a correction to around 25300, then a low volume rally to retest some of the former highs, and then, the long awaited freefall in early 2020.
This is the last time we are seeing Dow above 200-day MA for a long time, once it breaks down it won't get above it swiftly. The bear season begins with the daily close below 200 day MA or a flash crash we can't foresee atm.
Whoever longs this after such an overextended bullmarket cycle is just delusional.
A marginal higher high to stop out everyone already shorting and then a crash is a possibility as well, although I wouldn't bet on it.
It seems like everyone hopes they can sell to somebody else once the panic kicks in.
The thing is, the theatre is getting more and more crowded... yet the exit door stay the same.
Dow Jones: 5H Golden Cross points to one last High.DJI has been trading inside a 1W Ascending Triangle (RSI = 55.808, MACD = 272.600) since June and is now approaching the 1W Resistance. Currently the Golden Cross formation is emerging on the 5H chart and based on the last 3 times that pattern printed, the price made at least one more High.
In January 2019 it made another three Higher Highs, in June again three and in September one. That leads us to expect at least one more High which could be lower than the 1W Resistance as since July each High is slightly lower than the previous on the 1W time frame. As a result our target for this is 27,250. If the index breaks below this week's bottom then the pattern is invalidated and you should be ready to close your position.
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UTX in Long-Term Trading RangeAlthough many Dow 30 components had a severe sell-down in December 2018, most have not gone up further than the previous highs. UTX is such a stock. It has now officially been range-bound for over a year, as it was range-bound before the December collapse.
Dow Jones: Channel Up turned into a Triangle.Dow Jones is extending the rebound on the Higher Low made yesterday on the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 51.067, MACD = 249.310, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) after the Nonfarm Payrolls missed the forecast today. This fundamentally bullish for the stock index (Fed and rate cut outlook).
Technically the 1W Channel Up failed to make a Higher High last month so the medium term overlay can turn into a Triangle. Thus we revise our target on a Lower High at 27,200.
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US30 dips continue to attract buyersOANDA:US30USD
Trade Idea
DOW30 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 27200 (stop at 27100)
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 27403. A Morning Star formation has been posted at the low. The continuation higher in prices through resistance has been impressive with strong momentum and shows no signs of slowing. A bullish hammer has been posted as prices reject the lower levels. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 27200, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 27400 and 27500
Resistance: 27403 / 27500 / 27625
Support: 27200 / 27000 / 26850
US30 - Indices Trading | Elliott Wave Structures | Q2 2019*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks!
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US30USD - Elliott Wave Outlook
Bearish Swings - Patterns:
Flat Formation in Super-Cycle Wave (IV) (green)
Primary A (red) - Simple ABC Swing
Primary B (red) - Running Flat
Primary C (red) - Bearish Extension
Bullish Swings - Patterns:
Leading Diagonal in Primary 1 (pink)
ABC Swings in Intermediate degrees (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) (blue)
Next expected swing:
Bearish sequence in Primary (2) (pink)
Structure change:
Breach of the lower trend-line could lead towards Primary (2) (pink) already unfolding.
Home Depot: Domestic Consumer Retail EarningsI don't usually play earnings roulette, but I was willing to with HD. They're a US domestic consumer goods retailer, and they're going to be the recipient of goods more favorably prices for domestic consumption than international trade.
The technicals look good, they've been growing earnings consistently, and membership on the DOW30 does favor them for having a solid and reproducible formula for success.
Also, this could go completely the other direction, but they're so large that it's going to drive tomorrow's market direction overall whichever way it goes.
UNH: DOW30 Healthcare Value ReboundI've been researching stocks in the healthcare sector recently, and it seems that the places to put your money are into healthcare operators, hospital services, and medical facility REITs. United Healthcare got beaten down with the rest of the healthcare sector in late April. However, they rebounded in the other direction after their earnings call. I've been watching them to wait for a stronger trend to set in, and I believe the time is now. Volume spiked on earnings and has remained relatively flat since, so neither a drop or spike in volume is a good side that the buyers are holding and the sellers are having to be bid up to let go of their shares.
As for technicals, the price just popped above the 50 day moving average and the 20 day moving average shows a clear bottoming out and converging to overtake the 50 day. MACD has been weakly bullish in the histogram but just crossed positive, and this is confirmed with the holders sentient sloping upward and going positive. For trendedness, ADX is 17 showing that the old trend is long dead but a new one is still shaping up, but DI+ diverging from ADX and DI- shows that a new uptrend is brewing. RSI is sloping upward with the Friday and Monday above 50, so prices are out of oversold territory and rebounding but not yet oversold. Money flow continues to be positive, and the short interest is idling along showing that there's not a lot of confidence in betting against the stock.
Beyond the technicals, UNH is in a good position to weather this current bout of the trade war. They're primarily a domestic healthcare provider and operator, and they're going to benefit from the falling price in goods rather than be hurt by it. Demand for healthcare is fairly inelastic, and investors are going to seek shelter in service providers of various types with low risk exposure to selling goods or dealing with rising prices from import/export dynamics.
#Dow 30 How much would he fall?Although we are on an uptrend, the Dow Jones is currently facing serious weekly resistance at 26694, we believe it is on the way to making a price correction, The Stochastic indicator confirming what we thought as is in the upper term range that could mark a reversal of the trend (Last September when the stochastic was at these levels the Dow fell by 19 percent)
Sell DOW 30:
Entry price: 26186
Take profit: 25180
Stop loss: 26700
Dow Jones Futures, shortterm Bullish Bat (potentially)Long 26120 Executed, SL 26090, target: 26270, watch 26220 retreat to move SL to BE or maybe book some profits.
Next: Short 26270 with 2630x SL target the wave fibo levels of it gets there and price actions show rejections around 26270-26300 zone.
Trade at your own risk! Don’t trade money you cannot afford to lose. Trade safely.
Dow Jones: Key level for buyers to defend.The index broke on Monday the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 57.363, MACD = 302.300), making a bottom below the Higher Low limit (Highs/Lows = -54.6429, B/BP = -113.5340). The rejection near the 26,280 1W Resistance can potentially escalate to a full 1W pull back towards the 1W Support Zone (24,140 - 24,280) but only if the 25,620 Monday low breaks. As seen on the chart that pattern supported the uptrend on a previous occasion, however this time the Channel Up broke and it may not hold. That is why we are only willing to sell if it breaks. TP = 24,860.
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US500/ DJI30/ nasdaq100 Supply And Demand Analysisthese levels on the daily chart i have drawn out are levels i have across the dow30/nasdaq/us500 indexes. with price where its at now,
short term income day trades and swing positions are available at these locations.
If we do break higher then i will be bullish till we hit our next supply levels at 2888 area and 2925 area
cheers
UTX: Modern Dividend Dog of the DowUTX posted a Valentine's Day dividend, and now it's time to consider buying back into them. Despite an earnings miss, they're going strong with high winds on the US Federal budget negotiations in Washington yielding to compromise and better news for their Carrier and Otis Elevator brands appearing stronger through higher revenues favoring better terms on their plan to spin those off in 2020 to form a more aerospace oriented firm. With strong fundamentals, and a good position in the Dow 30, the time to buy after ex-dividend dates is now.
Technicals show a strong but methodical plod upward with both MACD and ADX and directional movement showing no signs of the trend slowing down even if RSI appears slightly overbought hovering over 75 for the last two days, but that's OK around dividend payouts. The stochastic oscillator is very flat indicating that a strong breakout either up or down couple happen any day. Expect resistance at previous highs with strong signs of continuation if UTX can close and remain over the previous one of 132 and again at 140, 144 as well as potential profit taking swings from those that bought in post-earnings. Short interest is roughly 15% the average daily trading volume but appears to have no hold on the upward price momentum.
Dow Jones Sell on 25.900-26.000 TopGood place to sell here into the US Market. Why?
1. RSI D1-M15 totally overbought. Dow regained over 6.81% in 2019 till now.
2. SPX and NASDAQ underrated equal to Dow.
3. World economy indicators are on the way to turn lower.
4. 26.000 were latest tops for tournanround.
5. Gold price still raising equal to Dow Jones.